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Like a centipede waiting for the other shoe to drop in [The Economy] thread

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Posts

  • JepheryJephery Registered User regular
    moniker wrote: »
    Jephery wrote: »
    Trumps still staying mum on Hong Kong to not blow up the trade deal, so hes just as fucking awful as everyone else bowing down to China to do business there.

    Hes too chickenshit to follow through on the threat of getting our corporations to pull out of China, since he knows that will tank the economy and kill his reelection chances even more.

    He has no authority to get our corporations out of China, they are private entities engaging in free enterprise.

    Well yeah he'd have to get Congress to pass sanctions on them for the Uyghur genocide and Hong Kong oppression, which would get people running out fast. And destroy the global economy, but whats an economy that accommodates genocide really worth?

    }
    "Orkses never lose a battle. If we win we win, if we die we die fightin so it don't count. If we runs for it we don't die neither, cos we can come back for annuver go, see!".
  • CantidoCantido Registered User regular
    Jephery wrote: »
    moniker wrote: »
    Jephery wrote: »
    Trumps still staying mum on Hong Kong to not blow up the trade deal, so hes just as fucking awful as everyone else bowing down to China to do business there.

    Hes too chickenshit to follow through on the threat of getting our corporations to pull out of China, since he knows that will tank the economy and kill his reelection chances even more.

    He has no authority to get our corporations out of China, they are private entities engaging in free enterprise.

    Well yeah he'd have to get Congress to pass sanctions on them for the Uyghur genocide and Hong Kong oppression, which would get people running out fast. And destroy the global economy, but whats an economy that accommodates genocide really worth?

    America would need decades of relearning how to Factory before this is feasible.

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  • TryCatcherTryCatcher Registered User regular
    edited October 10
    moniker wrote: »
    Jephery wrote: »
    Trumps still staying mum on Hong Kong to not blow up the trade deal, so hes just as fucking awful as everyone else bowing down to China to do business there.

    Hes too chickenshit to follow through on the threat of getting our corporations to pull out of China, since he knows that will tank the economy and kill his reelection chances even more.

    He has no authority to get our corporations out of China, they are private entities engaging in free enterprise.

    Also, the corporations got into this mess on their own, if people hate them for it and boycott them, is not Trump's problem. Stoking the flames until people hate the corporations enough to support the trade war makes sense from that angle.

    TryCatcher on
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  • JepheryJephery Registered User regular
    edited October 10
    The trade war doesn't make sense from that angle, since hes not forcing them to stop their political crackdowns with a trade deal. He wants to do business in China, he doesn't care about human rights.

    Once you go down the road of moral objection, the only moral choice is to stop doing business with China. Trump wants something on the other side of that, a trade deal on terms he views as favorable to the US.

    If anything, the deal breaker on the Chinese side for any trade deal is that the US agrees to never interfere with internal Chinese political issues. It is total moral capitulation.

    In fact, taking that into account, I doubt any trade deal will pass Congress with the Hong Kong issue in play. China will explicitly spell out that Hong Kong is off limits in any treaty that needs to pass through Congress.

    Jephery on
    }
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  • TryCatcherTryCatcher Registered User regular
    Like most foreign policy, the trade war is about the domestic policy of the US, in this case, getting to rally internal support against an outside enemy. So, as long as China gets hurt, is working as intended.

    FencingsaxSmrtnikshryke
  • JepheryJephery Registered User regular
    edited October 10
    Yes a trade war hurts China, but a trade deal that silences the US government and foreign policy on Hong Kong and Xinjiang would be a massive win for the Communist Party.

    Jephery on
    }
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  • TryCatcherTryCatcher Registered User regular
    Given how mercurial Trump is, predicting a result from these talks is a fool's errand.

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  • JepheryJephery Registered User regular
    Its the position that the Communist Party will take as a precondition for anything else, and that Trump would happily jump on because he doesn't care about human rights and has reportedly stated privately to Xi that the US government will stay quiet on Hong Kong in hopes of a trade deal.

    So if one does happen, that will be in there explicitly, or perhaps secretly.

    }
    "Orkses never lose a battle. If we win we win, if we die we die fightin so it don't count. If we runs for it we don't die neither, cos we can come back for annuver go, see!".
  • QuidQuid I don't... what... hnnng Registered User regular
    Jephery wrote: »
    Its the position that the Communist Party will take as a precondition for anything else, and that Trump would happily jump on because he doesn't care about human rights and has reportedly stated privately to Xi that the US government will stay quiet on Hong Kong in hopes of a trade deal.

    So if one does happen, that will be in there explicitly, or perhaps secretly.

    I don't see it. They can win both those fights over time. Meanwhile if they outlast the U.S. they get an economic win against a great Western power that's antagonized them for over a century.

    Rchanen
  • Knight_Knight_ Dead Dead Dead Registered User regular
    re the nba at least i think china overplayed their hand

    they got the nba to prostrate at their feet but china didn't let off the pressure so the nba spun back around to hey maybe fuck off

    aeNqQM9.jpg
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  • MazzyxMazzyx Comedy Gold Registered User regular
    Trump announces a partial trade deal with China
    President Trump said Friday that the U.S. and China have reached a limited trade deal, marking the first tangible achievement in the 18-month trade war between the world’s two largest economies.

    Speaking in the Oval Office during a meeting with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, the president said negotiators had reached a “substantial phase one” agreement though details remained to be written down. As part of the partial agreement, the White House agreed not to proceed with plans to increase tariffs on $250 billion in Chinese goods next week from 30 percent from 25 percent.

    I fully expect the markets to go nuts and then fall again as nothing happens. Mostly because it is to stall escalation not really claw back the tariff hole.
    “This deal temporarily puts off any further escalation of tensions but does not resolve any of the major underlying sources of frictions between the two countries or mitigate uncertainty about the future of the bilateral economic relationship,” said Eswar Prasad, former head of the International Monetary Fund’s China unit.

    Some China hawks were unimpressed by the agreement.

    “It’s basically some purchases and a bunch of fluff because no one in the administration really wants to go through with the tariffs anyway,” said Derek Scissors, a China expert at the American Enterprise Institute....

    The first steps include an increase in Chinese agricultural purchases, good news for American farmers who have lost billions of dollars in sales during the trade war. China recently began stepping up orders of U.S. farm products as a deal neared. But exports of U.S. soybeans to China fell from $12.2 billion in 2018 to just $3.1 billion last year, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

    03x29di.png
  • ElldrenElldren Is a woman dammit I'm a good person yes it's trueRegistered User regular
    Mazzyx wrote: »
    Trump announces a partial trade deal with China
    President Trump said Friday that the U.S. and China have reached a limited trade deal, marking the first tangible achievement in the 18-month trade war between the world’s two largest economies.

    Speaking in the Oval Office during a meeting with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, the president said negotiators had reached a “substantial phase one” agreement though details remained to be written down. As part of the partial agreement, the White House agreed not to proceed with plans to increase tariffs on $250 billion in Chinese goods next week from 30 percent from 25 percent.

    I fully expect the markets to go nuts and then fall again as nothing happens. Mostly because it is to stall escalation not really claw back the tariff hole.
    “This deal temporarily puts off any further escalation of tensions but does not resolve any of the major underlying sources of frictions between the two countries or mitigate uncertainty about the future of the bilateral economic relationship,” said Eswar Prasad, former head of the International Monetary Fund’s China unit.

    Some China hawks were unimpressed by the agreement.

    “It’s basically some purchases and a bunch of fluff because no one in the administration really wants to go through with the tariffs anyway,” said Derek Scissors, a China expert at the American Enterprise Institute....

    The first steps include an increase in Chinese agricultural purchases, good news for American farmers who have lost billions of dollars in sales during the trade war. China recently began stepping up orders of U.S. farm products as a deal neared. But exports of U.S. soybeans to China fell from $12.2 billion in 2018 to just $3.1 billion last year, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

    Yeah this is a bandaid on a gaping wound with the knife still stuck in and the only real benefit is that the guy putting on the bandaid can’t simultaneously keep stabbing

    fuck gendered marketing
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  • EncEnc A Fool with Compassion The Land of Flowers (and Dragons)Registered User regular
    There are either some typos or crazy doublethink in that quote.

    MorganVemp123
  • MazzyxMazzyx Comedy Gold Registered User regular
    Enc wrote: »
    There are either some typos or crazy doublethink in that quote.

    I copy and pasted. The part with "...." is a break because I wasn't copying the whole thing.

    But also lots of double think.

    03x29di.png
  • ButtersButters A glass of some milks Registered User regular
    So there isn't a deal, just an agreement not to continue escalation? This isn't a "deal" like at all...

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  • Knight_Knight_ Dead Dead Dead Registered User regular
    neither country can back down at this point because both leaders are relying on cult of personality strongman tactics.

    almost like this is extremely stupid.

    aeNqQM9.jpg
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  • ButtersButters A glass of some milks Registered User regular
    I don't want to go to "fuck the media town" but seriously how are they even using the word "deal" with this story and also the words "details remain to be written down" immediately after? What a crock of shit

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  • PreacherPreacher Registered User regular
    Butters wrote: »
    I don't want to go to "fuck the media town" but seriously how are they even using the word "deal" with this story and also the words "details remain to be written down" immediately after? What a crock of shit

    Because the media services wall street, and wall street wants to keep getting tax breaks and zero enforcement.

    I would like some money because these are artisanal nuggets of wisdom philistine.

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  • JepheryJephery Registered User regular
    Its possibly market manipulation. If you know how the algorithms move the market on the headlines, you can make a lot of money working the headlines.

    }
    "Orkses never lose a battle. If we win we win, if we die we die fightin so it don't count. If we runs for it we don't die neither, cos we can come back for annuver go, see!".
  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    Butters wrote: »
    I don't want to go to "fuck the media town" but seriously how are they even using the word "deal" with this story and also the words "details remain to be written down" immediately after? What a crock of shit

    Announcing an agreement in principle is a significant advancement, and generally occurs before details are hammered out. Assuming it actually happened. Which it probably didn't, and this is just a face saving way to renege on the threat of increasing tariffs for Christmas.

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  • ButtersButters A glass of some milks Registered User regular
    moniker wrote: »
    Butters wrote: »
    I don't want to go to "fuck the media town" but seriously how are they even using the word "deal" with this story and also the words "details remain to be written down" immediately after? What a crock of shit

    Announcing an agreement in principle is a significant advancement, and generally occurs before details are hammered out. Assuming it actually happened. Which it probably didn't, and this is just a face saving way to renege on the threat of increasing tariffs for Christmas.

    I'm not expecting a whole treaty but they say nothing is on paper and the only detail is a delay in escalation then this is not a deal in any sense it's a temporary cease fire.

    We've had agreements with the Taliban that are more concrete than this.

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  • JepheryJephery Registered User regular
    }
    "Orkses never lose a battle. If we win we win, if we die we die fightin so it don't count. If we runs for it we don't die neither, cos we can come back for annuver go, see!".
  • FencingsaxFencingsax It is difficult to get a man to understand, when his salary depends upon his not understanding GNU Terry PratchettRegistered User regular
    Jephery wrote: »

    Trump also makes it clear he has not paid any attention to the protests at all.

    torchlight-sig-80.jpg
    Martini_Philosophershryke
  • CelestialBadgerCelestialBadger Registered User regular
    edited October 12
    Fencingsax wrote: »
    Jephery wrote: »

    Trump also makes it clear he has not paid any attention to the protests at all.

    He seems to vaguely want China to do another Tiananmen Square because he's impressed by that bloodthirsty strongman shit.

    CelestialBadger on
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  • OghulkOghulk biggest externality low-energy economistRegistered User regular
    Fencingsax wrote: »
    Jephery wrote: »

    Trump also makes it clear he has not paid any attention to the protests at all.

    He seems to vaguely want China to do another Tiananmen Square because he's impressed by that bloodthirsty strongman shit.

    I really wonder how that would go a second time around. Hong Kong is a super important capital market

    raoADVy.png
  • TryCatcherTryCatcher Registered User regular
    China isn't stupid, a second Tiananmen would give the US the cover they need to increase military presence on SK, Japan, etc.

    Which is probably the only reason why the protests have been able to go on so long.

  • SealSeal Registered User regular
    I doubt Trump would give a damn and order an increase in military presence. All China has to do is offer a plot of land and preferential loans so he can build Trump tower Shanghai and they'll just have to worry about the European repsonse.

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  • PreacherPreacher Registered User regular
    Seal wrote: »
    I doubt Trump would give a damn and order an increase in military presence. All China has to do is offer a plot of land and preferential loans so he can build Trump tower Shanghai and they'll just have to worry about the European repsonse.

    Nah just let his daughter get some more patents and they'd be good.

    I would like some money because these are artisanal nuggets of wisdom philistine.

    Http:// pleasepaypreacher.net
    Rchanen
  • JepheryJephery Registered User regular
    edited October 12
    TryCatcher wrote: »
    China isn't stupid, a second Tiananmen would give the US the cover they need to increase military presence on SK, Japan, etc.

    Which is probably the only reason why the protests have been able to go on so long.

    This would be true if the Republican party wasn't completely compromised by foreign money. Its not just Trump, it looks like the entire GOP is awash in foreign influence.

    Russia has to play dirty by funneling money through dark channels but every big business in the US is in bed with the Chinese.

    The trade war is destroying the US's manufacturing (tariffs on primary and intermediate inputs have damaged our own manufacturing) and agricultural economies and the trade deficit is larger than ever. Honestly Trump is doing China a bigger favor than Russia

    Jephery on
    }
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  • TastyfishTastyfish Registered User regular
    Jephery wrote: »
    TryCatcher wrote: »
    China isn't stupid, a second Tiananmen would give the US the cover they need to increase military presence on SK, Japan, etc.

    Which is probably the only reason why the protests have been able to go on so long.

    This would be true if the Republican party wasn't completely compromised by foreign money. Its not just Trump, it looks like the entire GOP is awash in foreign influence.

    Russia has to play dirty by funneling money through dark channels but every big business in the US is in bed with the Chinese.

    The trade war is destroying the US's manufacturing (tariffs on primary and intermediate inputs have damaged our own manufacturing) and agricultural economies and the trade deficit is larger than ever. Honestly Trump is doing China a bigger favor than Russia

    From the sound of some of the allegations about Boris Johnson's campaigns starting to come out, it might be just the Right wing of the world in general.
    Which would make sense, who would have thought the parties working to further rich donors' interests would get caught up in their reliance on cash from relatively few sources?

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  • kaidkaid Registered User regular
    TryCatcher wrote: »
    China isn't stupid, a second Tiananmen would give the US the cover they need to increase military presence on SK, Japan, etc.

    Which is probably the only reason why the protests have been able to go on so long.

    It also would encourage a lot of western companies working/banking in HK to abandon it for tiawan or singapore. HK's usefulness is being a kinder gentler more western friendly interface for china to get money from the west. Doing a big tianamen level crackdown likely kills the golden goose and eliminates the reason china wants HK in the first place.

  • PhyphorPhyphor Building Planet Busters Tasting FruitRegistered User regular
    kaid wrote: »
    TryCatcher wrote: »
    China isn't stupid, a second Tiananmen would give the US the cover they need to increase military presence on SK, Japan, etc.

    Which is probably the only reason why the protests have been able to go on so long.

    It also would encourage a lot of western companies working/banking in HK to abandon it for tiawan or singapore. HK's usefulness is being a kinder gentler more western friendly interface for china to get money from the west. Doing a big tianamen level crackdown likely kills the golden goose and eliminates the reason china wants HK in the first place.

    HK is no longer the special golden goose, its relative value has fallen massively

    1580225_8dae1c0f2fa5f945f73ccb2e8078da2f-692x360.jpg

    China wanted Hong Kong because at the time it was hugely valuable and historically it was not happy with colonial powers just coming in and grabbing chunks of it's land

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  • MazzyxMazzyx Comedy Gold Registered User regular
    Phyphor wrote: »
    kaid wrote: »
    TryCatcher wrote: »
    China isn't stupid, a second Tiananmen would give the US the cover they need to increase military presence on SK, Japan, etc.

    Which is probably the only reason why the protests have been able to go on so long.

    It also would encourage a lot of western companies working/banking in HK to abandon it for tiawan or singapore. HK's usefulness is being a kinder gentler more western friendly interface for china to get money from the west. Doing a big tianamen level crackdown likely kills the golden goose and eliminates the reason china wants HK in the first place.

    HK is no longer the special golden goose, its relative value has fallen massively

    1580225_8dae1c0f2fa5f945f73ccb2e8078da2f-692x360.jpg

    China wanted Hong Kong because at the time it was hugely valuable and historically it was not happy with colonial powers just coming in and grabbing chunks of it's land

    More important than % of GDP is how much foreign investment goes through Hong Kong into China.

    This reuter's article covers it pretty well.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-protests-markets-explainer/explainer-how-important-is-hong-kong-to-the-rest-of-china-idUSKCN1VP35H

    Basically Hong Kong is how Chinese companies receive foreign investment and produce IPOs allowing foreign investors to come in. Also it is a big way for the rich Chinese to funnel money in and out of China. It has a purpose but not for the GDP anymore. So China is still trying to let the markets there to feel independent unlike say Shanghai where everyone knows that CCP has some control over what happens.

    03x29di.png
    shrykeFencingsaxRchanen
  • kaidkaid Registered User regular
    Mazzyx wrote: »
    Phyphor wrote: »
    kaid wrote: »
    TryCatcher wrote: »
    China isn't stupid, a second Tiananmen would give the US the cover they need to increase military presence on SK, Japan, etc.

    Which is probably the only reason why the protests have been able to go on so long.

    It also would encourage a lot of western companies working/banking in HK to abandon it for tiawan or singapore. HK's usefulness is being a kinder gentler more western friendly interface for china to get money from the west. Doing a big tianamen level crackdown likely kills the golden goose and eliminates the reason china wants HK in the first place.

    HK is no longer the special golden goose, its relative value has fallen massively

    1580225_8dae1c0f2fa5f945f73ccb2e8078da2f-692x360.jpg

    China wanted Hong Kong because at the time it was hugely valuable and historically it was not happy with colonial powers just coming in and grabbing chunks of it's land

    More important than % of GDP is how much foreign investment goes through Hong Kong into China.

    This reuter's article covers it pretty well.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-protests-markets-explainer/explainer-how-important-is-hong-kong-to-the-rest-of-china-idUSKCN1VP35H

    Basically Hong Kong is how Chinese companies receive foreign investment and produce IPOs allowing foreign investors to come in. Also it is a big way for the rich Chinese to funnel money in and out of China. It has a purpose but not for the GDP anymore. So China is still trying to let the markets there to feel independent unlike say Shanghai where everyone knows that CCP has some control over what happens.

    Yup and if they go full on crackdown whatever extra value HK has goes poof likely. It is just another really big city so still useful but much of its attractiveness to the outside world evaporates.

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  • JepheryJephery Registered User regular
    edited October 19
    So, there are a lot of economic protests going on globally right now. Iraq, Lebanon, Chile, Ecuador, Haiti, probably a lot more I'm missing.

    Are these symptoms of a global slowdown or are these localized?

    Jephery on
    }
    "Orkses never lose a battle. If we win we win, if we die we die fightin so it don't count. If we runs for it we don't die neither, cos we can come back for annuver go, see!".
  • JragghenJragghen Registered User regular
    I had looked into the Lebanon and Chile ones, and they seem unrelated to a slowdown, specifically.

    Lebanon is tax related - gas, bread, cigarettes, and then the final straw seemed to be (of all things) WhatsApp? Which says something about priorities, I guess.

    Chile is public transit costs related.

    So it's not directly related so much as a "governments are raising costs on things which mostly hit people who are in tight economic situation" correlation.

    Can't speak to the other ones - I'm aware they were going on, but not the details.

    Fencingsax
  • DunderDunder Registered User regular
    Jephery wrote: »
    So, there are a lot of economic protests going on globally right now. Iraq, Lebanon, Chile, Ecuador, Haiti, probably a lot more I'm missing.

    Are these symptoms of a global slowdown or are these localized?

    My guess they are more connected to the gilet jaunes (and similar) protests about the structural failures of neoliberalism rather than an immediate downturn

  • daveNYCdaveNYC Why universe hate Waspinator? Registered User regular
    Jragghen wrote: »
    I had looked into the Lebanon and Chile ones, and they seem unrelated to a slowdown, specifically.

    Lebanon is tax related - gas, bread, cigarettes, and then the final straw seemed to be (of all things) WhatsApp? Which says something about priorities, I guess.

    Chile is public transit costs related.

    So it's not directly related so much as a "governments are raising costs on things which mostly hit people who are in tight economic situation" correlation.

    Can't speak to the other ones - I'm aware they were going on, but not the details.

    I think the WhatsApp tax is not necessarily showing priorities so much as putting a tax on that is such a WTF moment that it broke the dam on the other taxes.

    Ecuador is due to austerity protests. With gas subsidies being cut as the last straw. Haiti seems a bit more general rage based, which makes sense because Haiti has all sorts of problems.

    Nothing seems tied to a current economic slowdown though.

    Shut up, Mr. Burton! You were not brought upon this world to get it!
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