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2018 Congressional/Senate Election Results Thread

This is a thread to discuss the results of the midterm elections at the federal level. What we know so far:

The Democrats have won a House majority. How large the majority will be we are waiting on a few outstanding races, especially in California. Projections are pickups in the mid to high 30s when we're finished. This means that Nancy Pelosi will be the Speaker (DO NOT DISCUSS THIS), and Democrats will take over the committee chairmanships and have the authority to investigate various aspects of the Trump administration.

In the Senate, the GOP picked up seats in Indiana, Missouri, and North Dakota. Democrats picked up a seat in Nevada. Races in Florida and Arizona are too close to call. Scott is a definite favorite in Florida, Arizona we have no idea because there are an enormous number of votes out there still to count.

In this thread:
Discuss House/Senate results as they come in.

DO NOT discuss Democratic leadership battles, 2016, or 2020.

Herbert Hoover got 40% of the vote in 1932. Friendly reminder.
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Posts

  • AtomikaAtomika Scarf Ace Registered User regular
    Congrats to NM for going 100% blue this cycle

    Well done, duders

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  • BrodyBrody The Watch The First ShoreRegistered User regular
    How many total seats for each party (House) are we talking about?

    "The shore does not dream of you." - Blind poet Gallan.
  • enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    Brody wrote: »
    How many total seats for each party (House) are we talking about?

    ~232-203. That's 538's current projection, I think.

    Herbert Hoover got 40% of the vote in 1932. Friendly reminder.
  • BrodyBrody The Watch The First ShoreRegistered User regular
    I didn't realize the Pub's margin was so small to begin with. ~30 seats seems like a nice buffer for future elections.

    "The shore does not dream of you." - Blind poet Gallan.
  • enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    Brody wrote: »
    I didn't realize the Pub's margin was so small to begin with. ~30 seats seems like a nice buffer for future elections.

    GOP would have to flip 15 to win the House back if that number holds. Not that hard to do.

    Herbert Hoover got 40% of the vote in 1932. Friendly reminder.
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  • JavenJaven Registered User regular
    Granted that I don't really see the current administration changing trajectory too much, so Congress swinging back to Republicans doesn't seem terribly likely. But 30 isn't that much, but hopefully it will be tougher if more redistricting starts happening.

    A Kobold's KoboldElvenshaeZibblsnrtdurandal4532Kristmas KthulhuMan in the Mists
  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    Brody wrote: »
    I didn't realize the Pub's margin was so small to begin with. ~30 seats seems like a nice buffer for future elections.

    GOP would have to flip 15 to win the House back if that number holds. Not that hard to do.

    At the same time, this is with a heavily gerrymandered map. Dem's won the popular vote by, what, 54%-45%. With hopefully better maps in future elections due to court cases and changes in election law enacted now, that makes the lift less difficult.

    A Kobold's KoboldIncenjucarDracomicronBullheadKristmas KthulhuMan in the MistsFallout2manGennenalyse RuebenElldren
  • SyphonBlueSyphonBlue Registered User regular
    Javen wrote: »
    Granted that I don't really see the current administration changing trajectory too much, so Congress swinging back to Republicans doesn't seem terribly likely. But 30 isn't that much, but hopefully it will be tougher if more redistricting starts happening.

    All those governorships we won were massively important for 2020 redistricting, especially states like Wisconsin and Michigan and Kansas and Maine

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  • ZibblsnrtZibblsnrt Registered User regular
    Not having a frothing overt white supremacist in charge of Maine anymore definitely won't hurt things in that state.

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  • ElJeffeElJeffe Moderator, ClubPA mod
    Brody wrote: »
    I didn't realize the Pub's margin was so small to begin with. ~30 seats seems like a nice buffer for future elections.

    Short of incumbent advantage, there's really no such thing as a buffer in the house. Since everything goes up every two years, it's super susceptible to changes in mood.

    A lead in the house right now means we have a lead in the house right now, nothing more.

    Maddie: "I named my feet. The left one is flip and the right one is flop. Oh, and also I named my flip-flops."

    I make tweet.
    monikerMoridin889Jragghendurandal4532Phoenix-DMegaMekKristmas KthulhuElvenshaeRMS OceanicIncenjucarshrykeMvrckMrMisterMan in the MistsFencingsaxKetBraspool32LabelStabbity StyleMazzyxJazzFallout2manCommunistCowLoisLaneMillAbsoluteZeroKipling217thatassemblyguyRchanenGennenalyse RuebenDisruptedCapitalistCommander ZoomLord_AsmodeusGnome-InterruptusElldrennever dieKetarTofystedeth
  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    edited November 8
    SyphonBlue wrote: »
    Javen wrote: »
    Granted that I don't really see the current administration changing trajectory too much, so Congress swinging back to Republicans doesn't seem terribly likely. But 30 isn't that much, but hopefully it will be tougher if more redistricting starts happening.

    All those governorships we won were massively important for 2020 redistricting, especially states like Wisconsin and Michigan and Kansas and Maine

    Maine only has 2 congressional districts, and that might shrink to at large after 2020.

    Regardless, though, there were so many headwinds for this election and Democrats still came out on top. And with a sufficient margin to be a real working majority. The wave election of 2010 was in part the result of the Recession literally only bottoming out that year after 4 full quarters of contraction. Unemployment was at 10%. &c. This is the result, even with a gerrymandered House, with the economy in pretty great shape, and without the protection of the Voting Rights Act. Good work everyone.

    moniker on
    durandal4532shrykespool32Centipede DamascusFallout2manElldren
  • So It GoesSo It Goes We keep moving...Registered User, Moderator mod
    Also if you don't like to call it a blue wave,call it a #womenwave

    Cause it was!

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  • PhasenPhasen Registered User regular
    Is there a news article keeping track of which races are still too close to call? Something that is preferably in an easy to read format like a table.

    psn: PhasenWeeple
  • PreacherPreacher Registered User regular
    Can I just say I'm so fucking happy Dino Rossi is a 3 time 3 time 3 time loser for national office! Fuck you Dino.

    I would like some money because these are artisanal nuggets of wisdom philistine.

    Http:// pleasepaypreacher.net
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  • RedTideRedTide Registered User regular
    Preacher wrote: »
    Can I just say I'm so fucking happy Dino Rossi is a 3 time 3 time 3 time loser for national office! Fuck you Dino.

    Oh so you guys have a Steve Lonegan of your own?

    RedTide#1907 on Battle.net
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  • PreacherPreacher Registered User regular
    RedTide wrote: »
    Preacher wrote: »
    Can I just say I'm so fucking happy Dino Rossi is a 3 time 3 time 3 time loser for national office! Fuck you Dino.

    Oh so you guys have a Steve Lonegan of your own?

    Yeah Dino has failed to be a senator twice and now failed to represent a house district. I mean even when the states media was trying to give him the nudge he still fucking lost in a GOP district. He sucks, but I do love seeing him lose.

    I would like some money because these are artisanal nuggets of wisdom philistine.

    Http:// pleasepaypreacher.net
    Man in the MistsFallout2manMatev
  • shalmeloshalmelo sees no evil Registered User regular
    Preacher wrote: »
    RedTide wrote: »
    Preacher wrote: »
    Can I just say I'm so fucking happy Dino Rossi is a 3 time 3 time 3 time loser for national office! Fuck you Dino.

    Oh so you guys have a Steve Lonegan of your own?

    Yeah Dino has failed to be a senator twice and now failed to represent a house district. I mean even when the states media was trying to give him the nudge he still fucking lost in a GOP district. He sucks, but I do love seeing him lose.

    Hey, don't sell Dino short - he also lost as the GOP gubernatorial candidate in 2004 & 2008.

    Steam ID: Shalmelo || LoL: melo2boogaloo || tweets
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  • PreacherPreacher Registered User regular
    shalmelo wrote: »
    Preacher wrote: »
    RedTide wrote: »
    Preacher wrote: »
    Can I just say I'm so fucking happy Dino Rossi is a 3 time 3 time 3 time loser for national office! Fuck you Dino.

    Oh so you guys have a Steve Lonegan of your own?

    Yeah Dino has failed to be a senator twice and now failed to represent a house district. I mean even when the states media was trying to give him the nudge he still fucking lost in a GOP district. He sucks, but I do love seeing him lose.

    Hey, don't sell Dino short - he also lost as the GOP gubernatorial candidate in 2004 & 2008.

    Oh god I forgot about those runs. As did the electorate.

    I would like some money because these are artisanal nuggets of wisdom philistine.

    Http:// pleasepaypreacher.net
  • TaramoorTaramoor Registered User regular
    Preacher wrote: »
    shalmelo wrote: »
    Preacher wrote: »
    RedTide wrote: »
    Preacher wrote: »
    Can I just say I'm so fucking happy Dino Rossi is a 3 time 3 time 3 time loser for national office! Fuck you Dino.

    Oh so you guys have a Steve Lonegan of your own?

    Yeah Dino has failed to be a senator twice and now failed to represent a house district. I mean even when the states media was trying to give him the nudge he still fucking lost in a GOP district. He sucks, but I do love seeing him lose.

    Hey, don't sell Dino short - he also lost as the GOP gubernatorial candidate in 2004 & 2008.

    Oh god I forgot about those runs. As did the electorate.

    And yet he's also served multiple years in the State Senate because he's the go-to for Appointed Replacements for the GOP.

  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    Taramoor wrote: »
    Preacher wrote: »
    shalmelo wrote: »
    Preacher wrote: »
    RedTide wrote: »
    Preacher wrote: »
    Can I just say I'm so fucking happy Dino Rossi is a 3 time 3 time 3 time loser for national office! Fuck you Dino.

    Oh so you guys have a Steve Lonegan of your own?

    Yeah Dino has failed to be a senator twice and now failed to represent a house district. I mean even when the states media was trying to give him the nudge he still fucking lost in a GOP district. He sucks, but I do love seeing him lose.

    Hey, don't sell Dino short - he also lost as the GOP gubernatorial candidate in 2004 & 2008.

    Oh god I forgot about those runs. As did the electorate.

    And yet he's also served multiple years in the State Senate because he's the go-to for Appointed Replacements for the GOP.

    Who the fuck is this guy and who is he blowing that this is all the case?

    Moridin889OrcaGnome-Interruptus
  • spool32spool32 Contrary Library Registered User regular
    moniker wrote: »
    Brody wrote: »
    I didn't realize the Pub's margin was so small to begin with. ~30 seats seems like a nice buffer for future elections.

    GOP would have to flip 15 to win the House back if that number holds. Not that hard to do.

    At the same time, this is with a heavily gerrymandered map. Dem's won the popular vote by, what, 54%-45%. With hopefully better maps in future elections due to court cases and changes in election law enacted now, that makes the lift less difficult.

    There is no popular vote!!

  • AtomikaAtomika Scarf Ace Registered User regular
    spool32 wrote: »
    moniker wrote: »
    Brody wrote: »
    I didn't realize the Pub's margin was so small to begin with. ~30 seats seems like a nice buffer for future elections.

    GOP would have to flip 15 to win the House back if that number holds. Not that hard to do.

    At the same time, this is with a heavily gerrymandered map. Dem's won the popular vote by, what, 54%-45%. With hopefully better maps in future elections due to court cases and changes in election law enacted now, that makes the lift less difficult.

    There is no popular vote!!

    There’s not one for president, either, but it’s an interesting bellwether for how the country feels vs. how it’s represented

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  • Captain CarrotCaptain Carrot Alexandria, VARegistered User regular
    spool32 wrote: »
    moniker wrote: »
    Brody wrote: »
    I didn't realize the Pub's margin was so small to begin with. ~30 seats seems like a nice buffer for future elections.

    GOP would have to flip 15 to win the House back if that number holds. Not that hard to do.

    At the same time, this is with a heavily gerrymandered map. Dem's won the popular vote by, what, 54%-45%. With hopefully better maps in future elections due to court cases and changes in election law enacted now, that makes the lift less difficult.

    There is no popular vote!!

    Sure there is. It's not legally significant, but it is indicative of the national mood. Combining the vote for the Senate races is substantially less meaningful, I will grant.

    kimeMegaMekGnome-Interruptus
  • Styrofoam SammichStyrofoam Sammich WANT. 5386-8443-8937Registered User regular
    spool32 wrote: »
    moniker wrote: »
    Brody wrote: »
    I didn't realize the Pub's margin was so small to begin with. ~30 seats seems like a nice buffer for future elections.

    GOP would have to flip 15 to win the House back if that number holds. Not that hard to do.

    At the same time, this is with a heavily gerrymandered map. Dem's won the popular vote by, what, 54%-45%. With hopefully better maps in future elections due to court cases and changes in election law enacted now, that makes the lift less difficult.

    There is no popular vote!!

    Of course there's not. But conservatives should think long and hard about what it means for the founding assumptions of democracy when most people are ruled by a party they did not select. You might say "well you got to select your Senator" or whatever but I never got to vote on McConnell and he has far more control over my life than either of my Senators.

    Minority rule won't hold forever.

    mrondeauEncSleepshrykeTomantaMan in the MistsMoridin889AbsoluteZeroKristmas KthulhuMegaMekLord_AsmodeusVeagleTofystedethMatevJoolander
  • spool32spool32 Contrary Library Registered User regular
    edited November 8
    Atomika wrote: »
    spool32 wrote: »
    moniker wrote: »
    Brody wrote: »
    I didn't realize the Pub's margin was so small to begin with. ~30 seats seems like a nice buffer for future elections.

    GOP would have to flip 15 to win the House back if that number holds. Not that hard to do.

    At the same time, this is with a heavily gerrymandered map. Dem's won the popular vote by, what, 54%-45%. With hopefully better maps in future elections due to court cases and changes in election law enacted now, that makes the lift less difficult.

    There is no popular vote!!

    There’s not one for president, either, but it’s an interesting bellwether for how the country feels vs. how it’s represented

    I don't think that's true in some important ways. I'm not sure how much in the scope of the thread it is to discuss, but I think generally speaking, "The Popular Vote" has some coded beliefs packed into it that are imo bad for the country, as well as being bad for understanding this (or any) election.

    Saying "well, 55% of people voted for some Democrat" is interesting in some demographic ways, but to go further and say "therefore 55% of the House should be Democratic" is both uninteresting and incorrect, and to go further and say "... and because it's not, this list of bad things is true" is actually bad for winning elections.

    spool32 on
    discrider
  • iTunesIsEviliTunesIsEvil Registered User regular
    And apparently we're heading to a recount in FL for Scott and Nelson as well as the Gov race...



    Patricia is the NY Times FL bureau chief.

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  • CouscousCouscous Registered User regular
    https://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/politics/fl-ne-election-broward-turnout-thursday-20181108-story.html
    Broward and Palm Beach County elections officials were still counting votes on Thursday, and statewide recounts appeared coming for three big elections: governor, U.S. Senate and state agriculture commissioner.

    Meanwhile, questions continued about why more than 24,000 people voted for governor but not for Senate in Broward.
    The difference was nearly even between the Republican and Democratic candidates.

    Gillum received more than 10,200 votes than Nelson, while DeSantis also received more than 10,400 votes than Scott.

    Some voters said that they don’t remember seeing the Senate race on their ballots or that they almost missed it.
    Why are they still using awful ballots in Broward?

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  • spool32spool32 Contrary Library Registered User regular
    Something else I want to highlight that we talked about in previous threads:

    Beto had 495,000 votes for him from people who also voted for Greg Abbot for Governor in Texas.

    That's around 13% of the voters in Texas, split between a guy who advocated for a Medicare expansion and a guy who refused to do it multiple times, a charismatic progressive who advocated impeaching the President and a grumpy rightwing conservative Trump supporter.

    These two dudes could not be less alike, but a half a million people thought they should both be in office. I'm not really sure what that says about Texas politics, but I think it's pretty interesting.

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  • Phoenix-DPhoenix-D Registered User regular
    spool32 wrote: »
    Something else I want to highlight that we talked about in previous threads:

    Beto had 495,000 votes for him from people who also voted for Greg Abbot for Governor in Texas.

    That's around 13% of the voters in Texas, split between a guy who advocated for a Medicare expansion and a guy who refused to do it multiple times, a charismatic progressive who advocated impeaching the President and a grumpy rightwing conservative Trump supporter.

    These two dudes could not be less alike, but a half a million people thought they should both be in office. I'm not really sure what that says about Texas politics, but I think it's pretty interesting.

    Truely, telling Ted Cruz to fuck off is a thing that unites many on the left and right.

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  • KetBraKetBra FISTS OF JUSTICE! Registered User regular
    Republicans don't like Cruz. No one likes Cruz.

    It wasn't a Democrat that termed him "Lucifer in the flesh"

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  • SyphonBlueSyphonBlue Registered User regular
    spool32 wrote: »
    Something else I want to highlight that we talked about in previous threads:

    Beto had 495,000 votes for him from people who also voted for Greg Abbot for Governor in Texas.

    That's around 13% of the voters in Texas, split between a guy who advocated for a Medicare expansion and a guy who refused to do it multiple times, a charismatic progressive who advocated impeaching the President and a grumpy rightwing conservative Trump supporter.

    These two dudes could not be less alike, but a half a million people thought they should both be in office. I'm not really sure what that says about Texas politics, but I think it's pretty interesting.

    I think it says the Texas Democratic Party needs to find some better people to run for Governor

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  • HefflingHeffling No Pic EverRegistered User regular
    spool32 wrote: »
    Something else I want to highlight that we talked about in previous threads:

    Beto had 495,000 votes for him from people who also voted for Greg Abbot for Governor in Texas.

    That's around 13% of the voters in Texas, split between a guy who advocated for a Medicare expansion and a guy who refused to do it multiple times, a charismatic progressive who advocated impeaching the President and a grumpy rightwing conservative Trump supporter.

    These two dudes could not be less alike, but a half a million people thought they should both be in office. I'm not really sure what that says about Texas politics, but I think it's pretty interesting.

    Where are you getting this number from? I'm interested in seeing voter participation numbers.

    If a movement doesn't have someone that can sit down opposite those in a position of power and strike a deal, how can that movement achieve success?
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  • fightinfilipinofightinfilipino Angry as Hell CharlottesvilleRegistered User regular
    it's heartening to see a few races thought to be GOP wins turning into Dem flips thanks to absentee/mail ballots :D

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  • OremLKOremLK Registered User regular
    I think all the split-ticket voting also says that you are seeing some moderate conservatives (not necessarily "Republicans", but rather people who tend to vote Republican) who are not onboard with the direction the party is going nationally. This is probably where a lot of the edge you saw Democrats gaining with independent voters comes from. I find that encouraging--it says that not everything is quite as polarized as it seems, and that there is still a group of people who are part of the conservative coalition and who can be reached by a good candidate running a strong campaign.

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  • spool32spool32 Contrary Library Registered User regular
    Heffling wrote: »
    spool32 wrote: »
    Something else I want to highlight that we talked about in previous threads:

    Beto had 495,000 votes for him from people who also voted for Greg Abbot for Governor in Texas.

    That's around 13% of the voters in Texas, split between a guy who advocated for a Medicare expansion and a guy who refused to do it multiple times, a charismatic progressive who advocated impeaching the President and a grumpy rightwing conservative Trump supporter.

    These two dudes could not be less alike, but a half a million people thought they should both be in office. I'm not really sure what that says about Texas politics, but I think it's pretty interesting.

    Where are you getting this number from? I'm interested in seeing voter participation numbers.

    Google really: AP reports the vote total for Cruz / Beto was 4,241,980 to 4,019,058
    Abbott vs Valdez was 4,636,029 to 3,524191


    That's a pretty crushing victory for Abbott, just as an aside. Lupe Valdez was really bad at campaigning.

  • Styrofoam SammichStyrofoam Sammich WANT. 5386-8443-8937Registered User regular
    I'm a Texan who finds Ted Cruz unlikable. I don't pay a ton of attention to politics but that Beto guy seems alright. I think of myself as a conservative so I vote GOP on the governor's office, which I have no strong feelings about.

    Change the nouns around and this explains a couple million Obama votes in 2008.

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  • kaidkaid Registered User regular
    spool32 wrote: »
    Something else I want to highlight that we talked about in previous threads:

    Beto had 495,000 votes for him from people who also voted for Greg Abbot for Governor in Texas.

    That's around 13% of the voters in Texas, split between a guy who advocated for a Medicare expansion and a guy who refused to do it multiple times, a charismatic progressive who advocated impeaching the President and a grumpy rightwing conservative Trump supporter.

    These two dudes could not be less alike, but a half a million people thought they should both be in office. I'm not really sure what that says about Texas politics, but I think it's pretty interesting.

    We saw this in wisconsin. The votes for tammy baldwin our senator were higher than for evers for governor. So apparently there was a fair amount of split ticket scott walker/tammy baldwin voters which just blows my mind.

    CommunistCow
  • Styrofoam SammichStyrofoam Sammich WANT. 5386-8443-8937Registered User regular
    In general I suspect split ticket voting only seems nonsensical to people who are way (too much?) into politics.

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  • kaidkaid Registered User regular
    In general I suspect split ticket voting only seems nonsensical to people who are way (too much?) into politics.

    Even for low info voters if they just go by the main stuff you see on TV its really hard to figure how anybody who would vote for walker would want anything to do with baldwin or visa versa.

  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    spool32 wrote: »
    Atomika wrote: »
    spool32 wrote: »
    moniker wrote: »
    Brody wrote: »
    I didn't realize the Pub's margin was so small to begin with. ~30 seats seems like a nice buffer for future elections.

    GOP would have to flip 15 to win the House back if that number holds. Not that hard to do.

    At the same time, this is with a heavily gerrymandered map. Dem's won the popular vote by, what, 54%-45%. With hopefully better maps in future elections due to court cases and changes in election law enacted now, that makes the lift less difficult.

    There is no popular vote!!

    There’s not one for president, either, but it’s an interesting bellwether for how the country feels vs. how it’s represented

    I don't think that's true in some important ways. I'm not sure how much in the scope of the thread it is to discuss, but I think generally speaking, "The Popular Vote" has some coded beliefs packed into it that are imo bad for the country, as well as being bad for understanding this (or any) election.

    Saying "well, 55% of people voted for some Democrat" is interesting in some demographic ways, but to go further and say "therefore 55% of the House should be Democratic" is both uninteresting and incorrect, and to go further and say "... and because it's not, this list of bad things is true" is actually bad for winning elections.

    I disagree with Thomas Jefferson about a lot of things, but the just power of the State being derived from the consent of the governed isn't one of them. But that's for another thread.

    For this thread, the demographic fact of Democrats managing to get a lot of voter support in areas whose lines may look rather different soon bodes much better than Republicans continuing to not have as broad support among voters. Better to rely on people than electoral geography, since eelctoral geography is not nearly as permanent as the mountains.

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