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2018 Congressional/Senate Election Results Thread

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Posts

  • Knight_Knight_ Dead Dead Dead Registered User regular
    Wolf is fine, not charismatic but I know a lot of suburban people who voted for him because they wanted balance in Harrisburg and things have generally been fine since he won. #anecdotes

    Also his opponent was a looney bird which helped.

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    Ladai
  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular


    Editor of the Cook Political Report

    Governor-elect Kelly in Kansas should also be included here.

    No real unifying theme there other than charisma = good. Though I've never really heard anyone say that about Wolf. Being a MI/PA/WI Dem with people horrified at what they did was a pretty good strategy this cycle.

    It still worries me the extent to which the issues themselves are not enough to get people out there.

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  • enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    edited November 2018
    shryke wrote: »


    Editor of the Cook Political Report

    Governor-elect Kelly in Kansas should also be included here.

    No real unifying theme there other than charisma = good. Though I've never really heard anyone say that about Wolf. Being a MI/PA/WI Dem with people horrified at what they did was a pretty good strategy this cycle.

    It still worries me the extent to which the issues themselves are not enough to get people out there.

    I mean, they are, because it's not like everyone the Dems nominated was super charismatic. It's just all the what does this mean takes should take into account that the best performing candidates were a mix of moderate Dems like Sinema and liberals like Abrams. Both in lean red states.

    I think the real meaning is maybe showcasing the power of organizing in places where we have not done that?

    enlightenedbum on
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  • ZibblsnrtZibblsnrt Registered User regular
    Scooter wrote: »
    moniker wrote: »
    Professor at Florida:



    Highest midterm turnout since 1914.

    Getting a majority of people to vote occurs less frequently than once a century? That is the saddest thing.

    Women and people 18-20 couldn't vote in 1914. Especially with the 18-20 block, who are the least reliable voters, that's gonna skew the stats.

    McDonald says the figures in that tweet are percentages of eligible voters at that point in time, not citizens as a whole.

    monikerFencingsaxGnome-Interruptus
  • durandal4532durandal4532 Registered User regular
    Zibblsnrt wrote: »
    Scooter wrote: »
    moniker wrote: »
    Professor at Florida:



    Highest midterm turnout since 1914.

    Getting a majority of people to vote occurs less frequently than once a century? That is the saddest thing.

    Women and people 18-20 couldn't vote in 1914. Especially with the 18-20 block, who are the least reliable voters, that's gonna skew the stats.

    McDonald says the figures in that tweet are percentages of eligible voters at that point in time, not citizens as a whole.

    I think that's what they meant.

    18-20 are eligible now, but weren't in 1914. Because they're very unreliable in general as a voting bloc, we can assume that if they were able to vote in 1914, the 1914 percentage would probably be lower.

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  • enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    Though it can't be purely organizing, because those candidates all outperformed the opposite high profile race by at least 4 points (except Abrams, no Georgia Senate race this year).

    Wolf and Whitmer were 4 points better than their Senate candidate, Beto almost 11 points better than Dems did for governor, Sinema probably gets to 17 points better than governor or so when everything is counted.

    Herbert Hoover got 40% of the vote in 1932. Friendly reminder.
    Warren 2020
  • ZibblsnrtZibblsnrt Registered User regular
    I'm not sure how accurately we can map contemporary voting patterns onto elections from more than a century ago (and in a time when voting processes were rather different, no less).

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  • JavenJaven Registered User regular
    Elias apparently being optimistic is pretty crazy, but at this point, if I did have to pick a Florida race to flip, it'd be in the Senate.

  • enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    Ag Commissioner seems like they're definitely going to flip. Senate is probably pretty tight we'll have to see if the undervote was machine error. If it was and a by hand count gives Nelson those votes I think it's reasonable to assume he wins that race. Governor not so much, unfortunately.

    If I had to guess, the "I don't know if you're a racist, but the racists think you're a racist" line probably lost Gillum the election because it triggered white faux moderates.

    Herbert Hoover got 40% of the vote in 1932. Friendly reminder.
    Warren 2020
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  • MarathonMarathon Registered User regular


    Some real shady shit in GA. People getting their mail in ballots returned to them. In this woman’s case it’s listed as “not deliverable as addressed”...an official pre-addressed envelope is somehow not deliverable.

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  • V1mV1m Registered User regular
    what was going on in 1914? the great war?

    World War 1's first year.

    Not for America

  • nexuscrawlernexuscrawler Registered User regular
    edited November 2018


    Harley Rouda is the future rep who’s beat everyone’s favorite congressman from Russia Dana Rohrabacher

    nexuscrawler on
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  • MarathonMarathon Registered User regular
    Following that race by names only, gotta admit that I thought Harley Rouda was a woman.

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  • ToxTox I kill threads Punch DimensionRegistered User regular
    Marathon wrote: »


    Some real shady shit in GA. People getting their mail in ballots returned to them. In this woman’s case it’s listed as “not deliverable as addressed”...an official pre-addressed envelope is somehow not deliverable.

    Yeah I keep seeing these reports and honestly GA might be about to have themselves a riot

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  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    Ag Commissioner seems like they're definitely going to flip. Senate is probably pretty tight we'll have to see if the undervote was machine error. If it was and a by hand count gives Nelson those votes I think it's reasonable to assume he wins that race. Governor not so much, unfortunately.

    If I had to guess, the "I don't know if you're a racist, but the racists think you're a racist" line probably lost Gillum the election because it triggered white faux moderates.

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  • Captain InertiaCaptain Inertia Registered User regular
    Marathon wrote: »
    Following that race by names only, gotta admit that I thought Harley Rouda was a woman.

    I was thinking old school territory wrassler

  • LostNinjaLostNinja Registered User regular
    Marathon wrote: »


    Some real shady shit in GA. People getting their mail in ballots returned to them. In this woman’s case it’s listed as “not deliverable as addressed”...an official pre-addressed envelope is somehow not deliverable.

    Have there been any other reports of this specifically happening? I’m seeing where a lot of mail-in ballots were rejected due to birth date issues (putting in the current date and not their date of birth), but a quick google search doesn’t show anything about ballots being returned to sender in high numbers.

  • Captain CarrotCaptain Carrot Alexandria, VARegistered User regular
    Though it can't be purely organizing, because those candidates all outperformed the opposite high profile race by at least 4 points (except Abrams, no Georgia Senate race this year).

    Wolf and Whitmer were 4 points better than their Senate candidate, Beto almost 11 points better than Dems did for governor, Sinema probably gets to 17 points better than governor or so when everything is counted.

    Valdez did worse than the rest of the statewide candidates, who generally managed around 46%.

  • MarathonMarathon Registered User regular
    edited November 2018
    .
    LostNinja wrote: »
    Marathon wrote: »


    Some real shady shit in GA. People getting their mail in ballots returned to them. In this woman’s case it’s listed as “not deliverable as addressed”...an official pre-addressed envelope is somehow not deliverable.

    Have there been any other reports of this specifically happening? I’m seeing where a lot of mail-in ballots were rejected due to birth date issues (putting in the current date and not their date of birth), but a quick google search doesn’t show anything about ballots being returned to sender in high numbers.

    If you look at the rest of that tweet chain it looks like there are allegedly 2 counties in GA that are reporting no mail in ballots at all.

    Marathon on
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  • CouscousCouscous Registered User regular
    edited November 2018
    https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2018/11/one-voter-broward-county-florida-election/
    On Saturday, Hidalgo, who is 29 and works two jobs, drove 30 minutes from her home in Margate to the elections office in Lauderhill to testify that her ballot is her own. She waited for more than four hours, but the canvassing board reviewing ballots would not consider hearing her testimony because it was not completely sure why her ballot had been deemed illegal. The only people who heard her story were a few reporters in the room.
    But to Hidalgo, her ballot isn’t illegal. She signed it. The problem likely is that the board decided her signature didn’t match what they had on file. “I was there, it was me,” she says. Throughout the day, as the canvassing board met, the lawyer for Nelson’s campaign, Anthony Quackenbush, repeatedly asked the board to hear from Hidalgo. But because he couldn’t be sure that the canvassing board had objected to her signature, the board refused to consider it. Finally, Hidalgo slipped out the back door and left.
    What the heck?

    Couscous on
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  • JavenJaven Registered User regular
    Wait

    So she discovered her vote had been marked as invalid, went out of her way to rectify the issue, and the people who could have helped, refused to hear her, because they didn't know why it was marked invalid?

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  • PreacherPreacher Registered User regular
    Javen wrote: »
    Wait

    So she discovered her vote had been marked as invalid, went out of her way to rectify the issue, and the people who could have helped, refused to hear her, because they didn't know why it was marked invalid?

    This is literally stealing an election and they are surprised the peoples who's votes they invalidated want to know what's going on.

    The question isn't why this is happening this time, its how many times before have they done this and gotten away with it?

    I would like some money because these are artisanal nuggets of wisdom philistine.

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  • Void SlayerVoid Slayer Very Suspicious Registered User regular
    LostNinja wrote: »
    Marathon wrote: »


    Some real shady shit in GA. People getting their mail in ballots returned to them. In this woman’s case it’s listed as “not deliverable as addressed”...an official pre-addressed envelope is somehow not deliverable.

    Have there been any other reports of this specifically happening? I’m seeing where a lot of mail-in ballots were rejected due to birth date issues (putting in the current date and not their date of birth), but a quick google search doesn’t show anything about ballots being returned to sender in high numbers.

    It is possible a large number of people did not put a return address on the preaddressed envelope, so the ballots, once rejected, would be lost in the system. And the voter would never know.

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  • PreacherPreacher Registered User regular
    LostNinja wrote: »
    Marathon wrote: »


    Some real shady shit in GA. People getting their mail in ballots returned to them. In this woman’s case it’s listed as “not deliverable as addressed”...an official pre-addressed envelope is somehow not deliverable.

    Have there been any other reports of this specifically happening? I’m seeing where a lot of mail-in ballots were rejected due to birth date issues (putting in the current date and not their date of birth), but a quick google search doesn’t show anything about ballots being returned to sender in high numbers.

    It is possible a large number of people did not put a return address on the preaddressed envelope, so the ballots, once rejected, would be lost in the system. And the voter would never know.

    Yeah I wouldn't put one on my ballot ordinarily I mean its a ballot with a preaddressed thing why would it ever be returned?

    I would like some money because these are artisanal nuggets of wisdom philistine.

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  • FencingsaxFencingsax It is difficult to get a man to understand, when his salary depends upon his not understanding GNU Terry PratchettRegistered User regular
    In California, my ballot did not need my return address.

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  • ElJeffeElJeffe Moderator, ClubPA mod
    In California, the folks running the elections are not hell bent on fucking up the vote counts.

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  • Beef AvengerBeef Avenger Registered User regular
    Couscous wrote: »
    https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2018/11/one-voter-broward-county-florida-election/
    On Saturday, Hidalgo, who is 29 and works two jobs, drove 30 minutes from her home in Margate to the elections office in Lauderhill to testify that her ballot is her own. She waited for more than four hours, but the canvassing board reviewing ballots would not consider hearing her testimony because it was not completely sure why her ballot had been deemed illegal. The only people who heard her story were a few reporters in the room.
    But to Hidalgo, her ballot isn’t illegal. She signed it. The problem likely is that the board decided her signature didn’t match what they had on file. “I was there, it was me,” she says. Throughout the day, as the canvassing board met, the lawyer for Nelson’s campaign, Anthony Quackenbush, repeatedly asked the board to hear from Hidalgo. But because he couldn’t be sure that the canvassing board had objected to her signature, the board refused to consider it. Finally, Hidalgo slipped out the back door and left.
    What the heck?

    These signature rejections (presumably) are even more brazen than literacy tests

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  • CommunistCowCommunistCow Registered User regular
    Marathon wrote: »


    Some real shady shit in GA. People getting their mail in ballots returned to them. In this woman’s case it’s listed as “not deliverable as addressed”...an official pre-addressed envelope is somehow not deliverable.

    Before anyone else asks - I went and looked at the tweet chain since it didn't look like there was postage in the box in the upper right hand corner. Apparently the red stamp with the $000.68 is postage the person paid at the post office when they dropped it off. One random thought I had is that QR code thing in red might have been unreadable because it overlaps the grey swoosh on the ballot and the black lines at the top. Then again it says "Return to sender not delieverable as addressed unable to forward" and not something about insufficient postage. It also looks like the the red postage says 11/1/2018 then in the middle top says 11/2/2018 and the return to sender thing at the bottom says 11/7/2018. It took them 6 days to figure out they couldn't deliver it and then send it back?

    Maybe we should just shut down all aspects of the post office for 2 fucking weeks and only handle ballots if this is the sort of turn around it takes. (only half /s)

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  • WACriminalWACriminal Dying Is Easy, Young Man Living Is HarderRegistered User regular
    Apparently Cindy Hyde-Smith (the republican going to runoff in Mississippi) was explaining to a gathering of supporters how much she liked/admired this one guy, and stated, "If he invited me to a public hanging, I'd be in the front row."

    In Mississippi.

    While running against a black man.

    Tweet is from a member of the ACLU Louisiana board of directors.



    It pisses me off just a little extra because she was standing in my hometown when she said it.

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  • Styrofoam SammichStyrofoam Sammich WANT. 5386-8443-8937Registered User regular
    shryke wrote: »


    Editor of the Cook Political Report

    Governor-elect Kelly in Kansas should also be included here.

    No real unifying theme there other than charisma = good. Though I've never really heard anyone say that about Wolf. Being a MI/PA/WI Dem with people horrified at what they did was a pretty good strategy this cycle.

    It still worries me the extent to which the issues themselves are not enough to get people out there.

    Theres opportunity in that

  • HefflingHeffling No Pic EverRegistered User regular
    Though it can't be purely organizing, because those candidates all outperformed the opposite high profile race by at least 4 points (except Abrams, no Georgia Senate race this year).

    Wolf and Whitmer were 4 points better than their Senate candidate, Beto almost 11 points better than Dems did for governor, Sinema probably gets to 17 points better than governor or so when everything is counted.

    Beto picked up several hundred thousand votes because of Trump bashing Cruz and convincing voters to vote against him. Don't give Beto credit for problems within the Republican party.

    If a movement doesn't have someone that can sit down opposite those in a position of power and strike a deal, how can that movement achieve success?
  • CommunistCowCommunistCow Registered User regular
    Heffling wrote: »
    Though it can't be purely organizing, because those candidates all outperformed the opposite high profile race by at least 4 points (except Abrams, no Georgia Senate race this year).

    Wolf and Whitmer were 4 points better than their Senate candidate, Beto almost 11 points better than Dems did for governor, Sinema probably gets to 17 points better than governor or so when everything is counted.

    Beto picked up several hundred thousand votes because of Trump bashing Cruz and convincing voters to vote against him. Don't give Beto credit for problems within the Republican party.

    Was that reasoning shown in exit polls?

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  • MillMill Registered User regular
    Nah, the voters that would have followed Trump's direction would have come back home for Cruz, once Trump started campaigning for him.

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  • joshofalltradesjoshofalltrades 地獄のようにかわいい あなたは嫉妬深いかRegistered User regular
    edited November 2018
    Beto was a genuinely inspiring and charismatic candidate, Trump shitting on Cruz doesn’t explain how tight that race was by itself

    joshofalltrades on
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  • ElendilElendil Registered User regular
    i could see trump motivating people to not vote but he sure as shit didn't bump up beto's numbers

    that's a hot take if i've ever seen one

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  • WACriminalWACriminal Dying Is Easy, Young Man Living Is HarderRegistered User regular
    edited November 2018
    EDIT: never mind

    WACriminal on
  • joshofalltradesjoshofalltrades 地獄のようにかわいい あなたは嫉妬深いかRegistered User regular
    Elections are complicated y’all

    If you are trying to make claims like “this one thing or person won/lost them the election or made it close” then you’re way oversimplifying

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  • enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    Cruz's internals collapsed after Trump came and rallied FOR him.

    Herbert Hoover got 40% of the vote in 1932. Friendly reminder.
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  • SaarSaar Registered User regular
    Fencingsax wrote: »
    In California, my ballot did not need my return address.

    Unless your California mail in ballot envelope is different than my California mail in ballot envelope there is a return address.

    It’s on the back, near your signature, to confirm that you’re eligible to vote for candidates in a certain areas.

  • Styrofoam SammichStyrofoam Sammich WANT. 5386-8443-8937Registered User regular
    Bit of interesting trivia: due to the way California's election system works, DeLeon, who ran solidly to the left of Feinstein, won republican areas in the State.



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