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2018 Congressional/Senate Election Results Thread

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Posts

  • schussschuss Registered User regular
    spool32 wrote: »
    Atomika wrote: »
    spool32 wrote: »
    moniker wrote: »
    Brody wrote: »
    I didn't realize the Pub's margin was so small to begin with. ~30 seats seems like a nice buffer for future elections.

    GOP would have to flip 15 to win the House back if that number holds. Not that hard to do.

    At the same time, this is with a heavily gerrymandered map. Dem's won the popular vote by, what, 54%-45%. With hopefully better maps in future elections due to court cases and changes in election law enacted now, that makes the lift less difficult.

    There is no popular vote!!

    There’s not one for president, either, but it’s an interesting bellwether for how the country feels vs. how it’s represented

    I don't think that's true in some important ways. I'm not sure how much in the scope of the thread it is to discuss, but I think generally speaking, "The Popular Vote" has some coded beliefs packed into it that are imo bad for the country, as well as being bad for understanding this (or any) election.

    Saying "well, 55% of people voted for some Democrat" is interesting in some demographic ways, but to go further and say "therefore 55% of the House should be Democratic" is both uninteresting and incorrect, and to go further and say "... and because it's not, this list of bad things is true" is actually bad for winning elections.

    The House is meant to be most representative of the people (Senate is for equalization) so it should be close. If it isn't it's an indicator of either states being 100% one or another or a broken breakout (districting) of reps.

  • SeñorAmorSeñorAmor !!! Registered User regular
    kaid wrote: »
    spool32 wrote: »
    Something else I want to highlight that we talked about in previous threads:

    Beto had 495,000 votes for him from people who also voted for Greg Abbot for Governor in Texas.

    That's around 13% of the voters in Texas, split between a guy who advocated for a Medicare expansion and a guy who refused to do it multiple times, a charismatic progressive who advocated impeaching the President and a grumpy rightwing conservative Trump supporter.

    These two dudes could not be less alike, but a half a million people thought they should both be in office. I'm not really sure what that says about Texas politics, but I think it's pretty interesting.

    We saw this in wisconsin. The votes for tammy baldwin our senator were higher than for evers for governor. So apparently there was a fair amount of split ticket scott walker/tammy baldwin voters which just blows my mind.

    My wife would have been one of those had she not hated Trump so much that she didn't want to vote for any Republican.

    Don't worry. I don't get it either.

    monikerwanderingLoisLaneCantidoRchanen
  • PantsBPantsB Registered User regular
    kaid wrote: »
    spool32 wrote: »
    Something else I want to highlight that we talked about in previous threads:

    Beto had 495,000 votes for him from people who also voted for Greg Abbot for Governor in Texas.

    That's around 13% of the voters in Texas, split between a guy who advocated for a Medicare expansion and a guy who refused to do it multiple times, a charismatic progressive who advocated impeaching the President and a grumpy rightwing conservative Trump supporter.

    These two dudes could not be less alike, but a half a million people thought they should both be in office. I'm not really sure what that says about Texas politics, but I think it's pretty interesting.

    We saw this in wisconsin. The votes for tammy baldwin our senator were higher than for evers for governor. So apparently there was a fair amount of split ticket scott walker/tammy baldwin voters which just blows my mind.

    Elizabeth Warren (D) won 60.3 (1.6 million)- 36.3 (973K)
    AG Maura Healey (D) won 70 (1.85m) - 30 (800K)
    Charlie Baker won (R) 66.9% (1.75m) - 33.1% (875K)

    So roughly 30% of the Mass voters were crossover pretty conservatively. Candidates matter.

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  • centraldogmacentraldogma Registered User regular
    PantsB wrote: »
    kaid wrote: »
    spool32 wrote: »
    Something else I want to highlight that we talked about in previous threads:

    Beto had 495,000 votes for him from people who also voted for Greg Abbot for Governor in Texas.

    That's around 13% of the voters in Texas, split between a guy who advocated for a Medicare expansion and a guy who refused to do it multiple times, a charismatic progressive who advocated impeaching the President and a grumpy rightwing conservative Trump supporter.

    These two dudes could not be less alike, but a half a million people thought they should both be in office. I'm not really sure what that says about Texas politics, but I think it's pretty interesting.

    We saw this in wisconsin. The votes for tammy baldwin our senator were higher than for evers for governor. So apparently there was a fair amount of split ticket scott walker/tammy baldwin voters which just blows my mind.

    Elizabeth Warren (D) won 60.3 (1.6 million)- 36.3 (973K)
    AG Maura Healey (D) won 70 (1.85m) - 30 (800K)
    Charlie Baker won (R) 66.9% (1.75m) - 33.1% (875K)

    So roughly 30% of the Mass voters were crossover pretty conservatively. Candidates matter.

    If canidates matter, then explain Ted Cruz, a man who is impossible to like, winning reelection.

    When people unite together, they become stronger than the sum of their parts.
    Don't assume bad intentions over neglect and misunderstanding.
  • SyphonBlueSyphonBlue Registered User regular
    PantsB wrote: »
    kaid wrote: »
    spool32 wrote: »
    Something else I want to highlight that we talked about in previous threads:

    Beto had 495,000 votes for him from people who also voted for Greg Abbot for Governor in Texas.

    That's around 13% of the voters in Texas, split between a guy who advocated for a Medicare expansion and a guy who refused to do it multiple times, a charismatic progressive who advocated impeaching the President and a grumpy rightwing conservative Trump supporter.

    These two dudes could not be less alike, but a half a million people thought they should both be in office. I'm not really sure what that says about Texas politics, but I think it's pretty interesting.

    We saw this in wisconsin. The votes for tammy baldwin our senator were higher than for evers for governor. So apparently there was a fair amount of split ticket scott walker/tammy baldwin voters which just blows my mind.

    Elizabeth Warren (D) won 60.3 (1.6 million)- 36.3 (973K)
    AG Maura Healey (D) won 70 (1.85m) - 30 (800K)
    Charlie Baker won (R) 66.9% (1.75m) - 33.1% (875K)

    So roughly 30% of the Mass voters were crossover pretty conservatively. Candidates matter.

    If canidates matter, then explain Ted Cruz, a man who is impossible to like, winning reelection.

    It's Texas.

    He won in 2012 by 16%, he won in 2018 by 2%.

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  • Inkstain82Inkstain82 Registered User regular
    Ted Cruz is a popular and well-liked candidate in many demographics. He may be incredibly unpopular with us and even his Senate colleagues, but the religious right loves him.

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  • Knight_Knight_ Dead Dead Dead Registered User regular
    The senate race not appearing on the ballot in broward or it being missable due to bad ballots is some serious shit, especially since it looks like it might end up inside the margin with how close that race is.

    idk, shit's crazy.

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  • DoodmannDoodmann Registered User regular
    I still would like a final number on how many ballots were "straight dem + cruz"

    I get that he lost but that was some shit, and I want to know how mad to actually be about it.

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  • JavenJaven Registered User regular
    Keep filling out those ballots, Broward

    we'll get there eventually!

  • spool32spool32 Contrary Library Registered User regular
    PantsB wrote: »
    kaid wrote: »
    spool32 wrote: »
    Something else I want to highlight that we talked about in previous threads:

    Beto had 495,000 votes for him from people who also voted for Greg Abbot for Governor in Texas.

    That's around 13% of the voters in Texas, split between a guy who advocated for a Medicare expansion and a guy who refused to do it multiple times, a charismatic progressive who advocated impeaching the President and a grumpy rightwing conservative Trump supporter.

    These two dudes could not be less alike, but a half a million people thought they should both be in office. I'm not really sure what that says about Texas politics, but I think it's pretty interesting.

    We saw this in wisconsin. The votes for tammy baldwin our senator were higher than for evers for governor. So apparently there was a fair amount of split ticket scott walker/tammy baldwin voters which just blows my mind.

    Elizabeth Warren (D) won 60.3 (1.6 million)- 36.3 (973K)
    AG Maura Healey (D) won 70 (1.85m) - 30 (800K)
    Charlie Baker won (R) 66.9% (1.75m) - 33.1% (875K)

    So roughly 30% of the Mass voters were crossover pretty conservatively. Candidates matter.

    Mass makes this thing a tradition though, Romney, Weld... over the years, they've regularly picked Republican governors and libby lib lib legislators.

    monikerElvenshaeMrMisterA Kobold's Kobold
  • spool32spool32 Contrary Library Registered User regular
    Texas used to be more bipartisan. Democrat Bob Bullock was Lt. Gov from 1990 - 1999... not until he retired due to cancer (from which he died 6 months later) did the GOP get it back (with Rick Perry). Bullock won re-election to that seat by a landslide, against a guy literally named "Tex", at the same time Bush won as Governor. If he hadn't needed to retire, he'd probably have held the seat until 2010.

    Joolander
  • Knight_Knight_ Dead Dead Dead Registered User regular
    spool32 wrote: »
    Texas used to be more bipartisan. Democrat Bob Bullock was Lt. Gov from 1990 - 1999... not until he retired due to cancer (from which he died 6 months later) did the GOP get it back (with Rick Perry). Bullock won re-election to that seat by a landslide, against a guy literally named "Tex", at the same time Bush won as Governor. If he hadn't needed to retire, he'd probably have held the seat until 2010.

    parties used to be different. that's just a function of the realignment in process and how weird and sticky party tribalism is, not any real bipartisanship.

    look at bill clinton's 1992/96 maps and it's fuckin' nuts in 2018.

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  • Styrofoam SammichStyrofoam Sammich WANT. 5386-8443-8937Registered User regular
    spool32 wrote: »
    Texas used to be more bipartisan. Democrat Bob Bullock was Lt. Gov from 1990 - 1999... not until he retired due to cancer (from which he died 6 months later) did the GOP get it back (with Rick Perry). Bullock won re-election to that seat by a landslide, against a guy literally named "Tex", at the same time Bush won as Governor. If he hadn't needed to retire, he'd probably have held the seat until 2010.

    Anne Richards is still idolized by many old enough to remember her there.

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  • minor incidentminor incident Helen Keller to the bullshit Registered User regular
    spool32 wrote: »
    Texas used to be more bipartisan. Democrat Bob Bullock was Lt. Gov from 1990 - 1999... not until he retired due to cancer (from which he died 6 months later) did the GOP get it back (with Rick Perry). Bullock won re-election to that seat by a landslide, against a guy literally named "Tex", at the same time Bush won as Governor. If he hadn't needed to retire, he'd probably have held the seat until 2010.

    Anne Richards is still idolized by many old enough to remember her there.

    Watching Ann Richards speak in a Walmart parking lot when I was in school is the singular event that I credit to making me care about politics.

    She's a hero and Texas deserves someone worth carrying on her legacy.

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  • Styrofoam SammichStyrofoam Sammich WANT. 5386-8443-8937Registered User regular
    spool32 wrote: »
    Texas used to be more bipartisan. Democrat Bob Bullock was Lt. Gov from 1990 - 1999... not until he retired due to cancer (from which he died 6 months later) did the GOP get it back (with Rick Perry). Bullock won re-election to that seat by a landslide, against a guy literally named "Tex", at the same time Bush won as Governor. If he hadn't needed to retire, he'd probably have held the seat until 2010.

    Anne Richards is still idolized by many old enough to remember her there.

    Watching Ann Richards speak in a Walmart parking lot when I was in school is the singular event that I credit to making me care about politics.

    She's a hero and Texas deserves someone worth carrying on her legacy.

    Yeah I think the problem is mostly that the GOP has spun itself and its base into this kind of insane thing they are now, but the Democrats have also lost some ability to speak to southern voters like she did. Beto is a sign for hope in that regard.

    wq09t4opzrlc.jpg
    spool32schussGnome-Interruptus
  • spool32spool32 Contrary Library Registered User regular
    spool32 wrote: »
    Texas used to be more bipartisan. Democrat Bob Bullock was Lt. Gov from 1990 - 1999... not until he retired due to cancer (from which he died 6 months later) did the GOP get it back (with Rick Perry). Bullock won re-election to that seat by a landslide, against a guy literally named "Tex", at the same time Bush won as Governor. If he hadn't needed to retire, he'd probably have held the seat until 2010.

    Anne Richards is still idolized by many old enough to remember her there.

    Watching Ann Richards speak in a Walmart parking lot when I was in school is the singular event that I credit to making me care about politics.

    She's a hero and Texas deserves someone worth carrying on her legacy.

    Yeah I think the problem is mostly that the GOP has spun itself and its base into this kind of insane thing they are now, but the Democrats have also lost some ability to speak to southern voters like she did. Beto is a sign for hope in that regard.

    GW was "Born with a silver foot in his mouth..."

    Anne Richards was in a class of her own. Move her 15 years up the timeline and she's the first female President.

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  • Styrofoam SammichStyrofoam Sammich WANT. 5386-8443-8937Registered User regular
    spool32 wrote: »
    spool32 wrote: »
    Texas used to be more bipartisan. Democrat Bob Bullock was Lt. Gov from 1990 - 1999... not until he retired due to cancer (from which he died 6 months later) did the GOP get it back (with Rick Perry). Bullock won re-election to that seat by a landslide, against a guy literally named "Tex", at the same time Bush won as Governor. If he hadn't needed to retire, he'd probably have held the seat until 2010.

    Anne Richards is still idolized by many old enough to remember her there.

    Watching Ann Richards speak in a Walmart parking lot when I was in school is the singular event that I credit to making me care about politics.

    She's a hero and Texas deserves someone worth carrying on her legacy.

    Yeah I think the problem is mostly that the GOP has spun itself and its base into this kind of insane thing they are now, but the Democrats have also lost some ability to speak to southern voters like she did. Beto is a sign for hope in that regard.

    GW was "Born with a silver foot in his mouth..."

    Anne Richards was in a class of her own. Move her 15 years up the timeline and she's the first female President.

    The party is immeasurably poorer for her absence. Molly Ivins as well.

    wq09t4opzrlc.jpg
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  • Desktop HippieDesktop Hippie Registered User regular
    I didn't realise just how insane the Boward County numbers were until I saw this breakdown from a Politico reporter.


    The vote to pick the state's Senator got well over 9,000 fewer votes than the vote to pick the state's CFO. 3.7% of ballots submitted left the Senate box blank in that county. No other county in Florida had a blank Senate box rate of higher than 1%.


  • enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    What I've read is that it was somehow buried in the corner of the ballot.

    Herbert Hoover got 40% of the vote in 1932. Friendly reminder.
    Warren 2020
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  • minor incidentminor incident Helen Keller to the bullshit Registered User regular
    That certainly smells fucky.

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  • Desktop HippieDesktop Hippie Registered User regular
    What I've read is that it was somehow buried in the corner of the ballot.

    Well whatever caused it, the result is over three times as many voters who showed up and cast a ballot failing to select a Senator for their state in Boward County than in any other county in Florida. That strikes me as sort of a big deal.


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  • PantsBPantsB Registered User regular


    Marc Elias is a Dem lawyer who is so good at recounts that he's famous for it. He's working for Nelson and is not prone to braggadocio

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  • Styrofoam SammichStyrofoam Sammich WANT. 5386-8443-8937Registered User regular
    Southern Republicanism is All An Act Vol. 1264346

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  • CouscousCouscous Registered User regular
    Nobody is as stereotypically Texan as people who moved to Texas.

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  • Styrofoam SammichStyrofoam Sammich WANT. 5386-8443-8937Registered User regular
    Couscous wrote: »
    Nobody is as stereotypically Texan as people who moved to Texas.

    Native Texans can be some of the best people on earth but god damn is it the Holy Land for assholes sometimes.

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  • Desktop HippieDesktop Hippie Registered User regular
    edited November 2018
    The Editor in Chief of Mother Jones is reporting that Democratic candidate Sinema has just squeaked into the lead in the AZ Senate race. Was that expected?


    Desktop Hippie on

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  • PantsBPantsB Registered User regular
    The Editor in Chief of Mother Jones is reporting that Democratic candidate Sinema has just squeaked into the lead in the AZ Senate race. Was that expected?


    Nice! There was reportedly a large number of Maricopa (Phoenix) ballots outstanding which was a strong area for her but there hadn't been updates during the day

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  • ZibblsnrtZibblsnrt Registered User regular
    This really is one of those elections carefully designed for engraving into a cricket bat with which people can hit the "but what difference could a handful of votes make?" crowd, isn't it?

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  • enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    I think there's still a ton of votes to count in Arizona.

    Herbert Hoover got 40% of the vote in 1932. Friendly reminder.
    Warren 2020
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  • Desktop HippieDesktop Hippie Registered User regular
    Yeah, I don't know how long this lead will actually last. Do the rules saying it has to go to a recount if it's within a certain % difference cover this particular vote?


  • PolaritiePolaritie Sleepy Registered User regular
    Zibblsnrt wrote: »
    This really is one of those elections carefully designed for engraving into a cricket bat with which people can hit the "but what difference could a handful of votes make?" crowd, isn't it?

    Anyone who didn't learn that from the Franken race needs a stronger cure than that.

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  • Inkstain82Inkstain82 Registered User regular
    It is still plausible that after all this, the Senate ends up right where it was before Doug Jones.

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  • ArbitraryDescriptorArbitraryDescriptor Registered User regular
    edited November 2018
    What I've read is that it was somehow buried in the corner of the ballot.
    Broward ballot:
    http://www.timaross.com/recommendations/

    If that's a legit ballot, I can see it. Senator is right under the Hatian language instructions (which are under the Spanish instructions). A little tunnel vision, a 9 page ballot, and a rush to get out of there could miss it.

    Results for specifically that precinct (E006) in the "main" central column on that ballot
    Gov: 2965
    AG: 2920
    CoA: 2891
    CFO: 2883

    Vs those under the instructions:
    Senator: 2873
    Dist Rep 22: 2845

    The drop is slight, but consistent across precincts.

    Skimming through, I don't see any case where Senator gets more than CFO.


    ArbitraryDescriptor on
  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    Inkstain82 wrote: »
    It is still plausible that after all this, the Senate ends up right where it was before Doug Jones.

    Which is remarkable given the map.

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  • RedTideRedTide Registered User regular
    Inkstain82 wrote: »
    It is still plausible that after all this, the Senate ends up right where it was before Doug Jones.

    If the Democrats sneak out both of these Senate races this officially becomes a bloodbath in their favor.

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  • RozRoz Boss of InternetRegistered User regular
    moniker wrote: »
    Inkstain82 wrote: »
    It is still plausible that after all this, the Senate ends up right where it was before Doug Jones.

    Which is remarkable given the map.

    Given the map its practically a miracle. Of the competitive races, I think the average partisan lean in 2016 was something like +15 for Trump. To survive this map after we got blown out in these states two years ago is nothing more than an incredible statement by candidates and the volunteers who bolstered them.

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  • Captain CarrotCaptain Carrot Alexandria, VARegistered User regular
    I think there's still a ton of votes to count in Arizona.

    And we need to know where they are - if Sinema has that lead because a bunch of votes in very good areas came in, and we can reasonably expect the remaining mix to favor McSally more, this isn't really good news. I'm not saying that's the case here, but I'd like to be able to rule it out.

  • Phoenix-DPhoenix-D Registered User regular
    And in the contining saga of WTF Broward county:

    https://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/politics/fl-ne-ballots-found-box-broward-20181108-story.html
    Teacher Lakeisha Sorey says she discovered a locked ballot box at Sunshine Elementary School in Miramar.

    Sorey said she found the box about 3 p.m. Thursday, in the same area where voting had been held, and knew not to meddle with it.

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  • JavenJaven Registered User regular
    No matter how it swings, it’s good to know that we’re collectively TERRIBLE at voting here in Florida.

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  • ZibblsnrtZibblsnrt Registered User regular
    Polaritie wrote: »
    Zibblsnrt wrote: »
    This really is one of those elections carefully designed for engraving into a cricket bat with which people can hit the "but what difference could a handful of votes make?" crowd, isn't it?

    Anyone who didn't learn that from the Franken race needs a stronger cure than that.

    Oh, I'm thinking for my blood pressure as much as their education.

    Seriously though, how many races this week were decided by infinitesimal margins? The fact that four or five point leads feel like thunderous stompings says something about how little ends up deciding a lot of these things..

    spool32mysticjuicer
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