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The tracker was a little overly sensitive, it reacted too strongly to a few GOP wins, Nate noticed this and took it offline for a bit so he could recalibrate it.
I mean, people freaked out because that's what people do, but Nate handled it fine. Shit happens.
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It was highly misleading was the issue. The fact that people were freaking out about it is pretty obvious proof of that.
It was an odd fluke where several GOP wins where Dems were favored came in all at once early on. Donnelly in particular skewed things pretty hard. If all or even some of the polling errors had been similarly tilted toward the GOP things would have been very different last week and I know more than a couple people who would be talking about leaving the country.
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The Cook Political Report and others are now projecting that Scott will indeed win the FL senate seat. Hand recounts so far give no indications of the kind of mechanical error that would be needed for Nelson to come out ahead.
i assumed it was like the upshot's needle that had guesses about where votes should come from and how that vote might be distributed and would make predictions based on that, which would then be modified by data coming in from the actual election.
but i think it was actually just taking everything at face value so if a rural county returned +40R first it would instantly swing hard to GOP victory. think i'll stick with the upshot for live election coverage going forward. all hail the needle.
There's some analysis on Twitter suggesting that it might not have actually effected the outcome; basically people were assuming that those votes would've gone 70/30 (or more) for Nelson just because of the county, but if you actually look at the difference between governor and senate votes (i.e., who the 'undervote' voters voted for in the Gov race), it seems to be more like a 50/50 D vs R split, which means that even if they had properly voted for Senate it wouldn't have swung the actual results much at all.
Which kind of makes sense, that the GOP's voters (typically older) would be more likely to miss the Senate race due to the stupid ballot design
I can definitely see the argument that those who weren't especially motivated to vote for Senate would skew differently than the county at large. If you were enthusiastic for Nelson (ha!) then you'd probably notice you didn't vote for him. Unlike default vote for Voldemort because of the R next to the name.
I'm sure in the next couple of days a polling person will suddenly remember a vote that was tabulated incorrectly,
Actually, reading the article, it looks like ridiculously close races are a just thing in Kentucky. 5 other state house seats were decided by 7 votes or less, and has been 3 instances this year where a coin toss had to be used to decide the outcome.
There's some analysis on Twitter suggesting that it might not have actually effected the outcome; basically people were assuming that those votes would've gone 70/30 (or more) for Nelson just because of the county, but if you actually look at the difference between governor and senate votes (i.e., who the 'undervote' voters voted for in the Gov race), it seems to be more like a 50/50 D vs R split, which means that even if they had properly voted for Senate it wouldn't have swung the actual results much at all.
Which kind of makes sense, that the GOP's voters (typically older) would be more likely to miss the Senate race due to the stupid ballot design
So it looks like it probably was people just not seeing the senate race on ballots in some critical counties oh well florida is going to florida.
This is why you don't leave democracy up to local government.
Bad ballot design by idiots in Florida local government elected George W Bush and led to a massive negative shift in the history of most of the world. History is funny like that. If this swung the election for Scott it won't be near that bad at least.
There's some analysis on Twitter suggesting that it might not have actually effected the outcome; basically people were assuming that those votes would've gone 70/30 (or more) for Nelson just because of the county, but if you actually look at the difference between governor and senate votes (i.e., who the 'undervote' voters voted for in the Gov race), it seems to be more like a 50/50 D vs R split, which means that even if they had properly voted for Senate it wouldn't have swung the actual results much at all.
Which kind of makes sense, that the GOP's voters (typically older) would be more likely to miss the Senate race due to the stupid ballot design
That estimation for Broward assumes all DeSantis voters automatically vote Scott and that has not been the case across the state because the Governors race is not near as close as the senate race.
So it looks like it probably was people just not seeing the senate race on ballots in some critical counties oh well florida is going to florida.
This is why you don't leave democracy up to local government.
Bad ballot design by idiots in Florida local government elected George W Bush and led to a massive negative shift in the history of most of the world. History is funny like that. If this swung the election for Scott it won't be near that bad at least.
I disagree with your analysis. Bush being president didn't cause a seismic shift in world history. A terrorist attack killing 3000 plus people changed the course of a nation.
You guys probably wouldn't have fabricated evidence to lead us into the wrong country though.
Or withdrawn from Kyoto, furthered economic inequality via continued deregulation and heavily weighted tax cuts, fired US attorneys for not trying to rig elections, etc. etc. etc.
Bush was plenty terrible before and outside of 9/11.
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The idea that your vote is a moral statement about you or who you vote for is some backwards ass libertarian nonsense. Your vote is about society. Vote to protect the vulnerable.
So it looks like it probably was people just not seeing the senate race on ballots in some critical counties oh well florida is going to florida.
This is why you don't leave democracy up to local government.
Bad ballot design by idiots in Florida local government elected George W Bush and led to a massive negative shift in the history of most of the world. History is funny like that. If this swung the election for Scott it won't be near that bad at least.
I disagree with your analysis. Bush being president didn't cause a seismic shift in world history. A terrorist attack killing 3000 plus people changed the course of a nation.
The CIA had ample warning that 9/11 was coming. They didn’t know the specifics, but they knew an enormous attack was imminent. They begged Bush to take action to prevent it. Bush didn’t listen. He couldn’t get his head around military action that didn’t involve declaring war on someone.
You guys probably wouldn't have fabricated evidence to lead us into the wrong country though.
Or withdrawn from Kyoto, furthered economic inequality via continued deregulation and heavily weighted tax cuts, fired US attorneys for not trying to rig elections, etc. etc. etc.
Bush was plenty terrible before and outside of 9/11.
Or just, you know, SCOTUS would be entirely different.
Pretty sure this isn't the "discuss the alternate universe where Bush lost" thread.
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Pretty sure this isn't the "discuss the alternate universe where Bush lost" thread.
Something something counting absentee mod ballots.
Anyways, actually on topic NY-22 is moving from "Probably D" to "Almost Assuredly D" with most of the counties having finished absentee votes. The trumpkin Tenney would need to carry something like 78% of the outstanding ballots to take it which is just not gonna happen. Still not official but pretty much over with.
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Gil Cisneros has officially taken the lead from Young Kim.
No.
I remember when the stats changed because that's what they do and everyone lost their shit
No, the real time tracker was journalistic malpractice, and Silver needs to be slapped in the face with an octopus by a seal for that.
Is your problem that the tracker existed at all or how it performed early in the night?
I mean, people freaked out because that's what people do, but Nate handled it fine. Shit happens.
It was an odd fluke where several GOP wins where Dems were favored came in all at once early on. Donnelly in particular skewed things pretty hard. If all or even some of the polling errors had been similarly tilted toward the GOP things would have been very different last week and I know more than a couple people who would be talking about leaving the country.
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Taramoor on Youtube
but i think it was actually just taking everything at face value so if a rural county returned +40R first it would instantly swing hard to GOP victory. think i'll stick with the upshot for live election coverage going forward. all hail the needle.
fucking florida. how on earth are you going to elect rick scott to anything again.
Which kind of makes sense, that the GOP's voters (typically older) would be more likely to miss the Senate race due to the stupid ballot design
Bush Gore I guess kind of, but I was 13 so I don’t know the specifics of that.
Apparently it's happened 3 times:
Marc Elias is an election lawyer and is representing Nelson.
"but my single vote won't matter!"
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/democrat-squeaks-by-with-one-vote-in-kentucky-house-race
I'm sure in the next couple of days a polling person will suddenly remember a vote that was tabulated incorrectly,
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Actually, reading the article, it looks like ridiculously close races are a just thing in Kentucky. 5 other state house seats were decided by 7 votes or less, and has been 3 instances this year where a coin toss had to be used to decide the outcome.
I blame Lizard People.
It did for Franken but the initial margin was a couple hundred votes
I can't think of one that swung an election tens of thousands of votes.
Dayton before that was decided by a bit over a thousand votes iirc too.
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Though a miscalibration in Broward county, FL was certainly one of those plausible edge cases where it might have.
This is why you don't leave democracy up to local government.
Bad ballot design by idiots in Florida local government elected George W Bush and led to a massive negative shift in the history of most of the world. History is funny like that. If this swung the election for Scott it won't be near that bad at least.
Wait, so Trump was right and gators in disguise were illegally voting for democrats?
His opponent requested a recount, and recounts are apparently managed by the majority party in the legislature because that's a good idea, so...
but here we are
EDIT:
No guesses as to which areas in the before map contain the most wealth.
Do not engage the Watermelons.
I disagree with your analysis. Bush being president didn't cause a seismic shift in world history. A terrorist attack killing 3000 plus people changed the course of a nation.
Or withdrawn from Kyoto, furthered economic inequality via continued deregulation and heavily weighted tax cuts, fired US attorneys for not trying to rig elections, etc. etc. etc.
Bush was plenty terrible before and outside of 9/11.
The CIA had ample warning that 9/11 was coming. They didn’t know the specifics, but they knew an enormous attack was imminent. They begged Bush to take action to prevent it. Bush didn’t listen. He couldn’t get his head around military action that didn’t involve declaring war on someone.
This, New Jersey, and IL-06 & IL-14 just warm all of my cockles.
Or just, you know, SCOTUS would be entirely different.
Pretty sure this isn't the "discuss the alternate universe where Bush lost" thread.
Something something counting absentee mod ballots.
Anyways, actually on topic NY-22 is moving from "Probably D" to "Almost Assuredly D" with most of the counties having finished absentee votes. The trumpkin Tenney would need to carry something like 78% of the outstanding ballots to take it which is just not gonna happen. Still not official but pretty much over with.
https://www.syracuse.com/politics/index.ssf/2018/11/anthony_brindisi_pads_his_lead_claudia_tenney_needs_a_miracle_to_keep_house_seat.html
Don't forget Dave Brat losing.