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2018 Congressional/Senate Election Results Thread

1356725

Posts

  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    Javen wrote: »
    No matter how it swings, it’s good to know that we’re collectively TERRIBLE at voting here in Florida.

    Oh, it's not just Florida.

    Though Florida is unique and special at it.

    JavenTicaldfjammonikerMayabirdLord_Asmodeuszepherin
  • AtomikaAtomika technology is your dickfist Registered User regular
    edited November 2018
    GA governor race still looking fishy as all fuck:


    As thousands waited for hours in line, hundreds of operational voting machines were sequestered from use in Atlanta without explanation

    https://lawandcrime.com/high-profile/georgia-officials-kept-hundreds-of-voting-machines-locked-in-warehouses-on-election-day/?fbclid=IwAR2Cx0YOGF8dHsUkRfLolynfMRteCBZNmphaoZkcbeA3-iybLzgRdXWHHso


    Republican candidate Brian Kemp was the head of the state’s election commission, and only stepped down from that post today to “begin transition into the role of governor,” a position he has not been declared winner of yet.

    Atomika on
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  • MarathonMarathon Registered User regular
    We have an explanation...Kemp did everything he could think of to steal the election and in a sane universe he’d end up in jail at the end of all this.

    AtomikaElvenshaeDesktop HippieForarKnight_JazzLoisLaneCantidokimeZomroXaquinBullheadAstaerethminor incidentHefflingthatassemblyguydispatch.oAistanCelestialBadgerschussAbsoluteZeroGennenalyse RuebenBrodyAegisShadowfireMazzyxA Kobold's KoboldMan in the MistsMillSo It GoesshrykeGorklonelyahavaKamarCantidemonikerMayabirdSyphonBlueFencingsaxMegaMekNo-QuarterboogedybooTNTrooperCommander ZoomRozLord_AsmodeusStabbity StyleMild ConfusionJaysonFourMvrckzepherinVeagleGnizmobrynhrtmnOrcaThawmusBloodsheedCentipede DamascusMoridin889Gnome-InterruptusKristmas KthulhuLabeljoshofalltradesnever dieMortal SkyKetarSmrtnikTofystedethMatev
  • AtomikaAtomika technology is your dickfist Registered User regular
    Marathon wrote: »
    We have an explanation...Kemp did everything he could think of to steal the election and in a sane universe he’d end up in jail at the end of all this.

    Yeah, the Buttery Males/Voter ID crowd can go fuck themselves after this

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  • MarathonMarathon Registered User regular
    It is interesting that he stepped down, hopefully he’s fucked himself in the event of a runoff.

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  • WACriminalWACriminal Dying Is Easy, Young Man Living Is HarderRegistered User regular
    AZ senate lead has widened to ~9k votes.

    *heavy breathing*

    Bullheadminor incidentthatassemblyguyLoisLaneBrodyA Kobold's KoboldMan in the MistsshrykeKnight_Mr RaymonikerMegaMekTNTrooperCommander ZoomRozLord_AsmodeusStabbity StyleMild ConfusionJaysonFourRMS OceanicRchanenzepherinDesktop HippiebrynhrtmnThawmusMoridin889Kristmas KthulhuLabeljoshofalltradesNeoTomaTofystedethMatev
  • Inkstain82Inkstain82 Registered User regular
    edited November 2018




    ^ LA Times Reporter

    Looks like my district may be getting the Not So Fast treatment too. It hadn't been officially called, but this is the most optimistic take I've seen for Cisneros (D).

    Inkstain82 on
    monikerDesktop HippieGnome-Interruptus
  • JragghenJragghen Registered User regular
    CA districts you're best to just sit and wait on. Ballots are mailed, and the official tallies will continue increasing until Dec 8th, which is the cutoff.

    jkylefultonmonikerMayabird
  • ArbitraryDescriptorArbitraryDescriptor Registered User regular
    edited November 2018
    RedTide wrote: »
    Inkstain82 wrote: »
    It is still plausible that after all this, the Senate ends up right where it was before Doug Jones.

    If the Democrats sneak out both of these Senate races this officially becomes a bloodbath in their favor.

    Broward is going 2:1 Nelson, but he's down 17k. They would need to have 51k ballots left (+ whatever the apparent overlook rate is) to carry him. That would put them around 65% turnout; which seems high given their peers.

    Not unheard of for them, it was 71% in '16, but only 44% in '14. The fact I can't seem convince myself to give up (and just wait) is whats really killing me.

    https://www.browardsoe.org/Election-Information/Voter-Statistics/District-Voter-Turnout-Report

    ArbitraryDescriptor on
  • Captain CarrotCaptain Carrot Alexandria, VARegistered User regular
    The MS-Sen race went to a runoff, as expected, but Espy did a lot better than anyone thought: trailing Hyde-Smith 41.5-40.6, 8400 votes behind. McDaniel got less than half of either of them, with 146k, and Bartee was also there at 12.7k. Despite Republicans claiming a solid combined majority of votes cast, I do think Espy has a path to victory.

    1. Fight the runoff slump. The runoff is the Tuesday after Thanksgiving, and retaining voters will be hard, especially since there will likely not be much awareness. Everyone will suffer from this, but the more he can prevent it, the better.
    2. A lot of McDaniel's supporters won't be coming home to Hyde-Smith -- either diehard conservatives who remain unsatisfied, or generally unmotivated to come out with no national election. Espy can boost this by highlighting her history as a Democratic elected politician; in 2007, she defeated a Republican to hold her seat, and may also have done in 1999 (can't find any records of the race, but it's possible.) Emphasizing her being a woman may also keep some people home, as we've seen some conservatives just don't like female politicians.
    3. Turn out basically every black voter in the state. Voting is highly racialized in Mississippi: nearly all whites vote Republican. Espy is going to need to get enough black voters to the polls to compensate for Hyde-Smith drawing from the 64% of registered voters who are white.
    4. Hammer the health care nail. 40% of MS voters picked it as their top issue over the economy, immigration, and gun policy, and those who did went for Espy 59%, leading Hyde-Smith by thirty-three points.
    5. Completely ignore Trump, and generally avoid nationalizing the race. The president is at 61% approval in the state, 40% said they were voting to show him support, and 51% were conservative. Espy has to be a local candidate focused on improving Mississippi or he's sunk.

    Let's say that 30% of general election voters don't go for the runoff, as a baseline, but Espy manages to stem his at 20%. That leaves Hyde-Smith at 260k, Espy at 288k, McDaniel's supporters at 100k, and Bartee's at 9k. Call it 30% of McDaniel's supporters who won't vote for Hyde-Smith, for whatever reason, and give her the rest: 58k gives Hyde-Smith 318k to to Espy's 297k. Pumping black turnout might just provide another 20k votes and change.

    Now, I am not an expert on Mississippi politics, and I may have been too generous with giving Espy 10% less loss in the runoff and Hyde-Smith 56% of McDaniel's post-runoff support, but all this seems at least somewhat doable.

  • WACriminalWACriminal Dying Is Easy, Young Man Living Is HarderRegistered User regular
    The MS-Sen race went to a runoff, as expected, but Espy did a lot better than anyone thought: trailing Hyde-Smith 41.5-40.6, 8400 votes behind. McDaniel got less than half of either of them, with 146k, and Bartee was also there at 12.7k. Despite Republicans claiming a solid combined majority of votes cast, I do think Espy has a path to victory.

    1. Fight the runoff slump. The runoff is the Tuesday after Thanksgiving, and retaining voters will be hard, especially since there will likely not be much awareness. Everyone will suffer from this, but the more he can prevent it, the better.
    2. A lot of McDaniel's supporters won't be coming home to Hyde-Smith -- either diehard conservatives who remain unsatisfied, or generally unmotivated to come out with no national election. Espy can boost this by highlighting her history as a Democratic elected politician; in 2007, she defeated a Republican to hold her seat, and may also have done in 1999 (can't find any records of the race, but it's possible.) Emphasizing her being a woman may also keep some people home, as we've seen some conservatives just don't like female politicians.
    3. Turn out basically every black voter in the state. Voting is highly racialized in Mississippi: nearly all whites vote Republican. Espy is going to need to get enough black voters to the polls to compensate for Hyde-Smith drawing from the 64% of registered voters who are white.
    4. Hammer the health care nail. 40% of MS voters picked it as their top issue over the economy, immigration, and gun policy, and those who did went for Espy 59%, leading Hyde-Smith by thirty-three points.
    5. Completely ignore Trump, and generally avoid nationalizing the race. The president is at 61% approval in the state, 40% said they were voting to show him support, and 51% were conservative. Espy has to be a local candidate focused on improving Mississippi or he's sunk.

    Let's say that 30% of general election voters don't go for the runoff, as a baseline, but Espy manages to stem his at 20%. That leaves Hyde-Smith at 260k, Espy at 288k, McDaniel's supporters at 100k, and Bartee's at 9k. Call it 30% of McDaniel's supporters who won't vote for Hyde-Smith, for whatever reason, and give her the rest: 58k gives Hyde-Smith 318k to to Espy's 297k. Pumping black turnout might just provide another 20k votes and change.

    Now, I am not an expert on Mississippi politics, and I may have been too generous with giving Espy 10% less loss in the runoff and Hyde-Smith 56% of McDaniel's post-runoff support, but all this seems at least somewhat doable.

    Mississippi native here. You're not wrong, it's very doable. MS is going blue in my lifetime, it's just a matter of whether it's sooner or later.

  • minor incidentminor incident Helen Keller to the bullshit Registered User regular
    Regarding native Texans being good people:

    nxzfs5y597ir.jpg

    A friend on Facebook captioned this: "See? Immigrants ARE ruining Texas!"

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  • thatassemblyguythatassemblyguy RESIST. Registered User regular
    WACriminal wrote: »
    AZ senate lead has widened to ~9k votes.

    *heavy breathing*

    The AZ GOP has filed a lawsuit suing the state because these mail-in/absentee ballot signatures were being validated now-ish instead of before the election. Not really something that has any merit. They just know that there is a strong likelihood that the majority of the ~200k ballots are in the Dems favor and are trying to suppress those votes.

  • jungleroomxjungleroomx And I said, hol up Registered User regular
    WACriminal wrote: »
    AZ senate lead has widened to ~9k votes.

    *heavy breathing*

    The AZ GOP has filed a lawsuit suing the state because these mail-in/absentee ballot signatures were being validated now-ish instead of before the election. Not really something that has any merit. They just know that there is a strong likelihood that the majority of the ~200k ballots are in the Dems favor and are trying to suppress those votes.

    I've been sensing a common theme this election.

    If you read the actual quotes from the Reps on this, it's so fucking sea-lioning it's ridiculous.

    Make. Time.
    thatassemblyguyBrodyshrykeCantidemonikerMayabirdMegaMekCommander ZoomLord_AsmodeusMild ConfusionzepherinDesktop HippieOrcaGnome-Interruptus
  • AtomikaAtomika technology is your dickfist Registered User regular
    WACriminal wrote: »
    AZ senate lead has widened to ~9k votes.

    *heavy breathing*

    The AZ GOP has filed a lawsuit suing the state because these mail-in/absentee ballot signatures were being validated now-ish instead of before the election. Not really something that has any merit. They just know that there is a strong likelihood that the majority of the ~200k ballots are in the Dems favor and are trying to suppress those votes.

    I can’t even try to imagine what their point is

    “We want these votes invalidated because they might hurt us if counted.”

    thatassemblyguyTicaldfjamMr RaymonikerCommander ZoomMild ConfusionzepherinDesktop HippieTofystedeth
  • minor incidentminor incident Helen Keller to the bullshit Registered User regular
    The people who are trying to ensure votes aren't counted are always the most trustworthy.

    Right?

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  • enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
  • minor incidentminor incident Helen Keller to the bullshit Registered User regular
    What a fuckstick.

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  • AtomikaAtomika technology is your dickfist Registered User regular

    Bad optics and bullshit pettiness aside, I don’t get this. The race is going to a recount. Those votes are going to be counted regardless of they’re against his favor or not.

    thatassemblyguyminor incidentBullheadMr RaymonikerJragghenLord_AsmodeusStabbity StyleMvrckDesktop HippieMoridin889Man in the Mists
  • minor incidentminor incident Helen Keller to the bullshit Registered User regular
    You see, Rick Scott is a miserable, terrible pile of shit who should never have a moment of peace as long as he lives.

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    You may not find all that you're after. In the end I hope it doesn't matter.
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  • AbbalahAbbalah Registered User regular
    spool32 wrote: »
    Something else I want to highlight that we talked about in previous threads:

    Beto had 495,000 votes for him from people who also voted for Greg Abbot for Governor in Texas.

    That's around 13% of the voters in Texas, split between a guy who advocated for a Medicare expansion and a guy who refused to do it multiple times, a charismatic progressive who advocated impeaching the President and a grumpy rightwing conservative Trump supporter.

    These two dudes could not be less alike, but a half a million people thought they should both be in office. I'm not really sure what that says about Texas politics, but I think it's pretty interesting.

    AstaerethKnight_AistanHedgethornAegisHappylilElfDesktop HippieRiusMorganVCommunistCowMoridin889Gnome-InterruptusKristmas KthulhuShadowfireMan in the Mists
  • BrodyBrody The Watch The First ShoreRegistered User regular
    What I've read is that it was somehow buried in the corner of the ballot.
    Broward ballot:
    http://www.timaross.com/recommendations/

    If that's a legit ballot, I can see it. Senator is right under the Hatian language instructions (which are under the Spanish instructions). A little tunnel vision, a 9 page ballot, and a rush to get out of there could miss it.

    Results for specifically that precinct (E006) in the "main" central column on that ballot
    Gov: 2965
    AG: 2920
    CoA: 2891
    CFO: 2883

    Vs those under the instructions:
    Senator: 2873
    Dist Rep 22: 2845

    The drop is slight, but consistent across precincts.

    Skimming through, I don't see any case where Senator gets more than CFO.


    I think Washington State ballots look largely similar.

    "The shore does not dream of you." - Blind poet Gallan.
  • ArbitraryDescriptorArbitraryDescriptor Registered User regular
    edited November 2018

    Jesus.
    “Late Tuesday night our win was projected about 57,000 votes. By Wednesday morning that lead dropped to 38,000 votes. By Wednesday evening, it was around 30,000 votes. This morning, it was around 21,000. Now, it is 15,000,.”

    Do we really expect him to believe that one of the largest, leftest counties in Florida would have turned out to vote against him in numbers consistent with previous years?

    Outrageous!

    ArbitraryDescriptor on
    monikerMegaMekGennenalyse RuebenDesktop Hippie
  • minor incidentminor incident Helen Keller to the bullshit Registered User regular
    "Votes keep coming in, and they're not for MEEEEEE"

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  • Knight_Knight_ Dead Dead Dead Registered User regular
    Atomika wrote: »
    WACriminal wrote: »
    AZ senate lead has widened to ~9k votes.

    *heavy breathing*

    The AZ GOP has filed a lawsuit suing the state because these mail-in/absentee ballot signatures were being validated now-ish instead of before the election. Not really something that has any merit. They just know that there is a strong likelihood that the majority of the ~200k ballots are in the Dems favor and are trying to suppress those votes.

    I can’t even try to imagine what their point is

    “We want these votes invalidated because they might hurt us if counted.”

    i believe this was the exact reasoning that won bush v gore.

    aeNqQM9.jpg
    jungleroomxthatassemblyguyCantidemonikerenlightenedbumPreacherJragghenVishNubAistanKetBraAegisCommander ZoomwanderingtynicLord_AsmodeusStabbity StyleJaysonFourBrodyGennenalyse RuebenzepheriniTunesIsEvilDesktop HippieMazzyxAbsoluteZeroDacAresProphetMoridin889CommunistCowA Kobold's KoboldLabeljoshofalltradesShadowfireKristmas KthulhuSpoitMan in the MistsTofystedeth
  • ViskodViskod Registered User regular

    Jesus.
    “Late Tuesday night our win was projected about 57,000 votes. By Wednesday morning that lead dropped to 38,000 votes. By Wednesday evening, it was around 30,000 votes. This morning, it was around 21,000. Now, it is 15,000,.”

    Do we really expect him to believe that one of the largest, leftest counties in Florida would have turned out to vote against him in numbers consistent with previous years?

    Outrageous!

    Everyone knows you stop counting votes at 11:59:59 on election night. None of the votes you couldn’t get to before then matter.

    Unless the Democrat was ahead.

    Artereis wrote: »
    It's not your fault, Viskod. 1 out of every 10 people just happens to be a monster.
    TicaldfjammonikerwanderingBrodyArbitraryDescriptorAbsoluteZeroOrcaGnome-InterruptusKristmas KthulhuMan in the MistsTofystedeth
  • Commander ZoomCommander Zoom Registered User regular
    Atomika wrote: »
    WACriminal wrote: »
    AZ senate lead has widened to ~9k votes.

    *heavy breathing*

    The AZ GOP has filed a lawsuit suing the state because these mail-in/absentee ballot signatures were being validated now-ish instead of before the election. Not really something that has any merit. They just know that there is a strong likelihood that the majority of the ~200k ballots are in the Dems favor and are trying to suppress those votes.

    I can’t even try to imagine what their point is

    “We want these votes invalidated because they might hurt us if counted.”

    "We didn't quite manage to cheat enough before the election, so we're gonna fix that right now."

    (me, near the end of last thread)

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  • CouscousCouscous Registered User regular
    Rudy Giuliani, the president's really bad lawyer:

    ??? What is the logic here???

    wanderingminor incidentDesktop Hippie
  • enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    Democrats are inherently illegitimate.

    Herbert Hoover got 40% of the vote in 1932. Friendly reminder.
    Warren 2020
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  • Inkstain82Inkstain82 Registered User regular
  • jungleroomxjungleroomx And I said, hol up Registered User regular
    Couscous wrote: »
    Rudy Giuliani, the president's really bad lawyer:

    ??? What is the logic here???

    There aren't proper word combinations in English to describe how much I despise this asshole.

    Make. Time.
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  • Knight_Knight_ Dead Dead Dead Registered User regular
    Inkstain82 wrote: »

    pa did flip 4 seats with a new map since that point to their very partial credit.

    aeNqQM9.jpg
    Inkstain82HedgethornA Kobold's Kobold
  • AtomikaAtomika technology is your dickfist Registered User regular
    Yes we need to turn out the vote

    Yes we need to end gerrymandering

    Fuck no we don’t need to kowtow to deep red bigots and dilute our progressive branding to try to win over people who will never vote in good faith

    “You’d do better if you were a lot shittier” is not a logic or a brand I’m willing to tolerate.

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  • MvrckMvrck Registered User regular
    Brody wrote: »
    What I've read is that it was somehow buried in the corner of the ballot.
    Broward ballot:
    http://www.timaross.com/recommendations/

    If that's a legit ballot, I can see it. Senator is right under the Hatian language instructions (which are under the Spanish instructions). A little tunnel vision, a 9 page ballot, and a rush to get out of there could miss it.

    Results for specifically that precinct (E006) in the "main" central column on that ballot
    Gov: 2965
    AG: 2920
    CoA: 2891
    CFO: 2883

    Vs those under the instructions:
    Senator: 2873
    Dist Rep 22: 2845

    The drop is slight, but consistent across precincts.

    Skimming through, I don't see any case where Senator gets more than CFO.


    I think Washington State ballots look largely similar.

    Not gonna lie, it took me doing a second pass on it for me to find where to vote for Cantwell.

    PwH4Ipj.jpg
  • minor incidentminor incident Helen Keller to the bullshit Registered User regular
    Sharing a pretty great thing written by Davis Hammet on Facebook:
    Year 2013: I’m a 22 year old queer who moves to Kansas to paint a rainbow house across from a notorious hate group. I realize the politicians here are more dangerous than the hate group; however, the people seem nothing like the politics that dominate. I start to really like Kansas. My boss asks me when I’m coming back to New York since this project was suppose to only be a few months. I tell him “I think I live in Kansas now.”

    2014: The most extreme right-wing one-sided government in KS history is elected.

    2015: Brownback rescinds LGBTQ protections by executive order making it legal to fire and harass LGBTQ state workers. The KS government increasingly uses prejudice and scapegoating to distract from their failing economic experiment. In response, we organize the largest protest in many years. I get messages from gay state workers who are scared for their safety and future. Kansas is a very dark place in this moment... A Senator walks by me in the Statehouse and softly mentions how wrong the attacks on the LGBTQ community are.

    2016: I leave LGBTQ activism to devote myself completely to voter registration and turnout. I’m convinced that if more young Kansans voted things would be different.

    2017: 1/3 of the KS legislature is newly elected as a rebuke to Brownback. The first week of session they are greeted by over a thousand Kansans screaming “Who’s House? Our House.” We’ve united different groups under a Kansas People’s Agenda demanding change. The Legislature starts to turn things around and activism is growing. The Brownback Experiment is repealed… Some random lady messages me saying she wants to talk about the future of Kansas. She’s pretty great.

    2018: That random lady, Sharice Davids, is elected the first LGBTQ Congressperson from Kansas. She gives a victory speech surrounded by LGBTQ youth. I’m overwhelmed thinking back to how most my life I thought accepting my sexuality meant forfeiting my future. The same night Brandon Woodard and Susan Ruiz are elected the first LGBTQ Kansas State Representatives.

    2019: The Senator who softly spoke words of solidarity to me in 2015, Laura Kelly, is the Governor and her first executive order is restoring LGBTQ protections to state workers.
    Nothing.
    Nothing.
    Nothing happens by accident.
    Every drop of decency is fought for.

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  • jungleroomxjungleroomx And I said, hol up Registered User regular
    Atomika wrote: »
    Yes we need to turn out the vote

    Yes we need to end gerrymandering

    Fuck no we don’t need to kowtow to deep red bigots and dilute our progressive branding to try to win over people who will never vote in good faith

    “You’d do better if you were a lot shittier” is not a logic or a brand I’m willing to tolerate.

    Yeah nah fuck that "cross the aisle" shit.

    Our position is all people should be treated as people.

    That is not a stance I'm willing to abdicate.

    Make. Time.
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  • lonelyahavalonelyahava Mortius is correct Move to New ZealandRegistered User regular
    "Votes keep coming in, and they're not for MEEEEEE"



    and they keep complaining about our generation being the ones requiring instant gratification.

    assholes.

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  • Harry DresdenHarry Dresden Registered User regular
    Atomika wrote: »
    Yes we need to turn out the vote

    Yes we need to end gerrymandering

    Fuck no we don’t need to kowtow to deep red bigots and dilute our progressive branding to try to win over people who will never vote in good faith

    “You’d do better if you were a lot shittier” is not a logic or a brand I’m willing to tolerate.

    Yeah nah fuck that "cross the aisle" shit.

    Our position is all people should be treated as people.

    That is not a stance I'm willing to abdicate.

    I wish I could agree with you on holding that line, because you're right - crossing the aisle for anything like people being treated humanely is something which shouldn't have to be bargained for. The problem is, the party has its own conservative division, and the asshole Joe Manchin seems to be positioning himself into being Liebermann 2.0., and there are probably others from red states doing the same. With bipartisanship with the GOP becoming less viable as they grow more unhinged and radicalised the Dems will still need to compromise with assholes, especially with the White House being held by the GOP for the next few years.

    I truly wish politics weren't such a dumpster fire we could ignore this obstacle, both in the Dem party itself and we actually had a reasonable opposition that weren't evil incarnate. The good news is there have been quite a few new progressives and socialists elected so when congress begins the conservative side will have to contend with that competition for votes. Schumer needs to take a flying leap and be replaced by someone with a spine, as well.

    I wish people weren't so terrible, and racists didn't have power in the electorate at any level. :(

    DisruptedCapitalist
  • zepherinzepherin Registered User regular
    I think in spite of tom foolery we might prevail in AZ.

    I am less optimistic about FL, but that would be a tremendous Coup as well. 52 48 is reasonable given the horrid situation that the Dems were in.

    BullheadmonikerHedgethornElvenshaeshryke
  • iTunesIsEviliTunesIsEvil Registered User regular
    Heh, Cindy McCain (wife of late Sen. John McCain) ain't too happy about the AZGOP's desire to stop counting those mail-in ballot votes...

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