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2018 Congressional/Senate Election Results Thread

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Posts

  • EncEnc A Fool with Compassion The Land of Flowers (and Dragons)Registered User regular
    I don't have much hope of any change in the results even with these, but I read these posts as trying to provide a future reason to vote republican as a hedge against losing. Scott can't actually take any real action to stop this, but if he hems and haws and "do declares!" about this irregularity it will rally future support if he should lose for the GOP ticket as a whole and fits a narrative of lies that the democrats are thieves and whatever that they want to reinforce to keep their voter-base secure.

    Its quite different from Georgia.

  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    Enc wrote: »
    I don't have much hope of any change in the results even with these, but I read these posts as trying to provide a future reason to vote republican as a hedge against losing. Scott can't actually take any real action to stop this, but if he hems and haws and "do declares!" about this irregularity it will rally future support if he should lose for the GOP ticket as a whole and fits a narrative of lies that the democrats are thieves and whatever that they want to reinforce to keep their voter-base secure.

    Its quite different from Georgia.

    He's trying to have another Brooks Brothers riot. But on Twitter as well.

    Recall that the original included one Brett Kavanaug and Roger Stone.

  • EncEnc A Fool with Compassion The Land of Flowers (and Dragons)Registered User regular
    Huh.

  • ArbitraryDescriptorArbitraryDescriptor Registered User regular
    edited November 2018
    moniker wrote: »
    Enc wrote: »
    I don't have much hope of any change in the results even with these, but I read these posts as trying to provide a future reason to vote republican as a hedge against losing. Scott can't actually take any real action to stop this, but if he hems and haws and "do declares!" about this irregularity it will rally future support if he should lose for the GOP ticket as a whole and fits a narrative of lies that the democrats are thieves and whatever that they want to reinforce to keep their voter-base secure.

    Its quite different from Georgia.

    He's trying to have another Brooks Brothers riot. But on Twitter as well.

    Recall that the original included one Brett Kavanaug and Roger Stone.

    Holy shit

    http://www.rightwingwatch.org/post/roger-stone-is-scheming-another-brooks-brothers-riot-in-florida/

    I don't even know which bit to quote.
    Ali Akbar (also known as Ali Alexander), a pro-Trump political activist funded by the Mercer family, said he would be recruiting homeless people and believers of the apocryphal “QAnon” conspiracy theory to build out his protests.

    “I want 100 to 200 people at the Broward County election offices every day, 24/7 a day. I’m going to move the homeless people in all the adjacent counties, we’re going to get Republicans out there, we’re going to get Democrats who care about free elections, we’re going to get MAGA people, we will get [QAnon] people, we’re going to get everyone out there to make sure that these bureaucrats know that we are watching them,” Akbar said in a Periscope video.

    He added, “Be ready. If you live anywhere within 2 to 3 hours of Broward County, be ready.”

    ArbitraryDescriptor on
  • DoodmannDoodmann Registered User regular
    Literally paid protesters. The amount of projection is almost beautiful.

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  • ArbitraryDescriptorArbitraryDescriptor Registered User regular
    edited November 2018
    Enc wrote: »
    Huh.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brooks_Brothers_riot
    Hundreds of paid GOP operatives descended upon South Florida to protest the state's recounts,[1] with at least half a dozen of the demonstrators at Miami-Dade paid by George W. Bush's recount committee.[2] Several of these protesters were identified as Republican staffers and a number later went on to jobs in the Bush administration.[3]

    ...

    The demonstration turned violent and according to The New York Times, "several people were trampled, punched or kicked when protesters tried to rush the doors outside the office of the Miami-Dade supervisor of elections. Sheriff's deputies restored order." DNC aide Luis Rosero was kicked and punched. Within two hours after the riot died down, the canvassing board unanimously voted to shut down the count, in part due to perceptions that the process wasn't open or fair, and in part because the court-mandated deadline was impossible to meet.

    ArbitraryDescriptor on
    Enc
  • SpaffySpaffy Fuck the Zero Registered User regular
    Can someone explain what actually happened in Broward? Some voting station lost, and then found, a bunch of ballot papers? How, and how many?

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  • EncEnc A Fool with Compassion The Land of Flowers (and Dragons)Registered User regular
    Yeah, it was a "huh" of mild despair realizing how correct that is.

    ArbitraryDescriptor
  • PhillisherePhillishere Registered User regular
    Enc wrote: »
    Huh.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brooks_Brothers_riot
    Hundreds of paid GOP operatives descended upon South Florida to protest the state's recounts,[1] with at least half a dozen of the demonstrators at Miami-Dade paid by George W. Bush's recount committee.[2] Several of these protesters were identified as Republican staffers and a number later went on to jobs in the Bush administration.[3]

    ...

    The demonstration turned violent and according to The New York Times, "several people were trampled, punched or kicked when protesters tried to rush the doors outside the office of the Miami-Dade supervisor of elections. Sheriff's deputies restored order." DNC aide Luis Rosero was kicked and punched. Within two hours after the riot died down, the canvassing board unanimously voted to shut down the count, in part due to perceptions that the process wasn't open or fair, and in part because the court-mandated deadline was impossible to meet.

    Fun historical fact: Brett Kavanaugh was one of the original BB rioters.

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  • IncindiumIncindium Registered User regular
    edited November 2018
    Spaffy wrote: »
    Can someone explain what actually happened in Broward? Some voting station lost, and then found, a bunch of ballot papers? How, and how many?

    https://www.wtsp.com/article/news/politics/elections/teacher-finds-container-labeled-provisional-ballot-box-at-broward-county-school/67-613014076

    No evidence yet that there there were actually uncounted ballots in it.

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  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    Spaffy wrote: »
    Can someone explain what actually happened in Broward? Some voting station lost, and then found, a bunch of ballot papers? How, and how many?

    All kinds of things are going on.

    A ballot box was lost (or hidden) and then found later, whether or not those votes can be counted is unknown
    Many voters seem to have not voted for a Senate candidate, this may be due to poor ballot design, or due to scantron issues
    Many ballots were mail in or absentee ballots, or provisional ballots. As counting continues, more of those ballots are processed
    Counting simply appears to be slow of the primary ballots

    "That is cool" - Abraham Lincoln
  • ArbitraryDescriptorArbitraryDescriptor Registered User regular
    edited November 2018
    Spaffy wrote: »
    Can someone explain what actually happened in Broward? Some voting station lost, and then found, a bunch of ballot papers? How, and how many?

    Broward supervisor of elections is consistently out of their depth. They are taking "too long" to count votes, and haven't (as of Wednesday, at least) been able to say how many (absentee?) ballots they have left to count.

    The end.

    Note:. Not too long in the statutory sense, they don't have to finish until either tonight or sometime tomorrow.

    Nelson has allegedly filed a suit to request something about signature validation and request more time.
    Nelson is asking the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Florida for an immediate injunction and to declare "that all voters who submit a (vote-by-mail) or provisional ballot, and whose ballots are subsequently determined to involve a signature mismatch, be counted as valid votes." He also requests Saturday's deadline to canvas ballots be extended until the legal matter is resolved.
    https://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/11/09/bill-nelson-files-lawsuit-challenging-floridas-election-signature-match-law-amid-senate-recount/

    Not sure what all the first bit entails, or if it's just a stall for last bit.

    ArbitraryDescriptor on
  • PantsBPantsB Registered User regular
    Spaffy wrote: »
    Can someone explain what actually happened in Broward? Some voting station lost, and then found, a bunch of ballot papers? How, and how many?

    Mostly they're just counting mail in ballots slowly, most likely because Republicans starve the election capacity of large districts that vote Democratic

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  • CouscousCouscous Registered User regular
    There are now right wing protests happening in Broward County.

    CNN correspondent:


    One of these days they are going actually to lock her up.

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  • enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    Yeah, definite flashbacks to 18 years ago.

    Herbert Hoover got 40% of the vote in 1932. Friendly reminder.
    Warren 2020
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  • ArbitraryDescriptorArbitraryDescriptor Registered User regular
    Couscous wrote: »
    There are now right wing protests happening in Broward County.

    CNN correspondent:


    One of these days they are going actually to lock her up.

    Sorry for the typo everyone: It was meant to read "Jobs for mobs!"

    -GOP

    ArtereisCptKemzik
  • VeeveeVeevee WisconsinRegistered User regular
    I'm having flashbacks to Walkers recall results when Waukesha County randomly found ~25,000 misplaced votes, all in unsealed packages without documentation verifying their chain of possession, and turned the election toward Walker keeping his seat.

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  • ViskodViskod Registered User regular
    edited November 2018
    EDIT:Already known in more appropriate thread.

    But also Rick Scott was apparently using the Emergency Broadcast System and breaking in on people watching TV to alert them to go to his Facebook page for the livestream of his little tantrum over the election.

    Viskod on
    Artereis wrote: »
    It's not your fault, Viskod. 1 out of every 10 people just happens to be a monster.
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  • SyphonBlueSyphonBlue Registered User regular
    So, you may remember that Rick Scott said he was ordering the Florida Department of Law Enforcement to investigate Broward County's ballot counting.

    FDLE has told him to sit down and shut up.
    “FDLE is working with the Department of State and we will investigate any allegations of criminal activity or fraud,” FDLE spokeswoman Gretl Plessinger told TPM. “This morning we spoke with the Department of State and they indicated that at this time they had no allegations of fraud.”

    “So we offered our assistance in the event that any criminal allegations are identified,” Plessinger added.
    https://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/florida-department-law-enforcement-no-fraud-allegations-scott

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  • Mild ConfusionMild Confusion Smash All Things Registered User regular
    Viskod wrote: »
    EDIT:Already known in more appropriate thread.

    But also Rick Scott was apparently using the Emergency Broadcast System and breaking in on people watching TV to alert them to go to his Facebook page for the livestream of his little tantrum over the election.

    The fuck, really?!

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  • DacDac Registered User regular
    Viskod wrote: »
    EDIT:Already known in more appropriate thread.

    But also Rick Scott was apparently using the Emergency Broadcast System and breaking in on people watching TV to alert them to go to his Facebook page for the livestream of his little tantrum over the election.

    And this is not an abuse of power because ________

    (The answer is republican)

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  • EncEnc A Fool with Compassion The Land of Flowers (and Dragons)Registered User regular
    What, no. That hasn't happened.

  • ArbitraryDescriptorArbitraryDescriptor Registered User regular
    Viskod wrote: »
    EDIT:Already known in more appropriate thread.

    But also Rick Scott was apparently using the Emergency Broadcast System and breaking in on people watching TV to alert them to go to his Facebook page for the livestream of his little tantrum over the election.

    Man, you gotta cite stuff like this. 'Rick Scott EAS|EBS' isn't turning up anything on the Google's.

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  • centraldogmacentraldogma Registered User regular
    I can't help but notice that every State that is having these voting issues (the issues the President refers to as fraud) are governed by Republicans. GA, FL, AZ, TX.

    If we can't call them outright perpetrators of coordinated fraud, we can at least accuse the Republican party of gross incompetence in failing to carry out a basic, fundamental function of our government.

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  • enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    I can't help but notice that every State that is having these voting issues (the issues the President refers to as fraud) are governed by Republicans. GA, FL, AZ, TX.

    If we can't call them outright perpetrators of coordinated fraud, we can at least accuse the Republican party of gross incompetence in failing to carry out a basic, fundamental function of our government.

    Shelby says they're purposeful.

    Herbert Hoover got 40% of the vote in 1932. Friendly reminder.
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  • Knight_Knight_ Dead Dead Dead Registered User regular

    upshot graphics person

    that line is stark.

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  • Inkstain82Inkstain82 Registered User regular
    Ballot design causing undervote seems way more likely than tabulation error.

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  • Knight_Knight_ Dead Dead Dead Registered User regular
    8% less votes though, and given that the rest of broward, which had the same ballot except with rep race underneath because the 24th CD was uncontested, had significantly less undervote?

    idk, if the whole county with senator located in the same spot was similar, i'd agree, but that's a crazy difference.

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  • Inkstain82Inkstain82 Registered User regular
    The existence of a blank spot on the ballot that wasn't there for the other areas makes it even more likely to be a design issue. You're more likely to overlook one race than two.

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  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    Inkstain82 wrote: »
    The existence of a blank spot on the ballot that wasn't there for the other areas makes it even more likely to be a design issue. You're more likely to overlook one race than two.

    Except it would have also been missing in Miami-Dade but they had much fewer undervotes.

  • WACriminalWACriminal Dying Is Easy, Young Man Living Is HarderRegistered User regular
    https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/4/0

    At the time of this post, Sinema's lead has increased to 1.05%, a total of roughly ~21k votes. She might be bringing this one home.

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  • TastyfishTastyfish Registered User regular
    edited November 2018
    If that is purely a fault of the graphical design on the Ballots, this is going to launch a ton of careers.

    Tastyfish on
  • enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    WACriminal wrote: »
    https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/4/0

    At the time of this post, Sinema's lead has increased to 1.05%, a total of roughly ~21k votes. She might be bringing this one home.



    NYT Upshot polling/statistical guru and owner of the dreaded needle. He says it's not over, but hard to imagine McSally winning.

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  • ViskodViskod Registered User regular
    Viskod wrote: »
    EDIT:Already known in more appropriate thread.

    But also Rick Scott was apparently using the Emergency Broadcast System and breaking in on people watching TV to alert them to go to his Facebook page for the livestream of his little tantrum over the election.

    Man, you gotta cite stuff like this. 'Rick Scott EAS|EBS' isn't turning up anything on the Google's.

    There was supposed to be a tweet and a video in that draft but just as well because since then there seems to be the conclusion that it was a local affiliate breaking into shows with a announcement banner scroll designed to look like an alert.

    Artereis wrote: »
    It's not your fault, Viskod. 1 out of every 10 people just happens to be a monster.
  • enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    edited November 2018
    So if we assume Sinema has in fact won, then our range of Senate outcomes is:

    net 0 (51 49 R)- Espy pulls off a miracle, Nelson pulls out Florida
    net -1 (52 48 R) - one of the above
    net -2 (53 47 R)- Espy loses, Scott wins

    Looking ahead to 2020:

    Dems are defending: Oregon (Merkley), Minnesota (Smith), New Mexico (Udall), Illinois (Durbin), Michigan (Peters), Virginia (Warner), Delaware (Coons), New Jersey (Booker), Massachusetts (Markey), New Hampshire (Shaheen), and Alabama (Jones).

    So one likely loss, a couple potential swings, but overall not bad.

    GOP: Alaska (Sullivan), Arkansas (Cotton), Colorado (Gardner), Georgia (Perdue), Idaho (Risch), Iowa (Ernst), Kansas (Roberts), Kentucky (McConnell), Louisiana (Cassidy), Maine (Collins), Montana (Daines), Nebraska (Sasse), North Carolina (Tillis), Oklahoma (Inhofe), South Carolina (Graham), South Dakota (Rounds), Tennessee (Alexander), Texas (Cornyn), West Virginia (Capito), and Wyoming (Enzi)

    Also, whoever wins the Mississippi runoff in three weeks has to defend their seat.

    Colorado is an obvious opportunity as that state has been trending Democratic. Maine loves its moderate Republicans, maybe the bloom is off that particular rose though finally. Then it depends on how things develop. Could get Iowa back with the right candidate (and continued tariffs) I think, North Carolina is doable, Georgia and Texas you need Abrams or Beto level candidates like say... Abrams and Beto, we could clone Jon Tester in Montana.

    Also obviously anywhere weird you can recruit a great candidate and suddenly make things competitive. And there are some real assholes we'd love to take out on that list, like McConnell or Graham.

    Winning the Senate seems doable, but it gets a hell of a lot easier if we get the Nelson win in particular. Especially since Espy would have to defend it again.

    enlightenedbum on
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  • JavenJaven Registered User regular
    So with all these late results trending Dem, does that give a little more weight to the claim that early voters lean blue?

    Thawmus
  • JragghenJragghen Registered User regular
    Maine becomes a lot more probable with ranked-choice voting.

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  • RedTideRedTide Registered User regular
    Jragghen wrote: »
    Maine becomes a lot more probable with ranked-choice voting.

    Susan Collins had a red year to run in last time and was at least free of one Supreme Court Justice vote on her resume.

    The base is going to be gunning for her scalp this cycle.

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  • Inkstain82Inkstain82 Registered User regular
    Another day, another chunk of California votes counted, more races looking better for Democrats. Several races that looked like R wins on Election night are now looking like D wins or coin flips. Reporters are starting to consider my district, CA-39, a likely Democratic win despite the Republican candidate currently holding a lead of about 3,000 votes.

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  • JragghenJragghen Registered User regular
    RedTide wrote: »
    Jragghen wrote: »
    Maine becomes a lot more probable with ranked-choice voting.

    Susan Collins had a red year to run in last time and was at least free of one Supreme Court Justice vote on her resume.

    The base is going to be gunning for her scalp this cycle.

    If he weren't so old, there's part of me which would love Stephen King running for the seat and blowing her out.

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This discussion has been closed.