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2018 Congressional/Senate Election Results Thread

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Posts

  • RedTideRedTide Registered User regular
    Jragghen wrote: »
    RedTide wrote: »
    Jragghen wrote: »
    Maine becomes a lot more probable with ranked-choice voting.

    Susan Collins had a red year to run in last time and was at least free of one Supreme Court Justice vote on her resume.

    The base is going to be gunning for her scalp this cycle.

    If he weren't so old, there's part of me which would love Stephen King running for the seat and blowing her out.

    He'd have a great platform to campaign on but then he'd fuck it all up on election night.

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  • MarathonMarathon Registered User regular
    RedTide wrote: »
    Jragghen wrote: »
    RedTide wrote: »
    Jragghen wrote: »
    Maine becomes a lot more probable with ranked-choice voting.

    Susan Collins had a red year to run in last time and was at least free of one Supreme Court Justice vote on her resume.

    The base is going to be gunning for her scalp this cycle.

    If he weren't so old, there's part of me which would love Stephen King running for the seat and blowing her out.

    He'd have a great platform to campaign on but then he'd fuck it all up on election night.

    His campaign speeches would be terrifying

    monikerMrVyngaardDesktop HippienaengwenPolaritiespool32AntoshkaMan in the MistsThawmusTofystedeth
  • Mild ConfusionMild Confusion Smash All Things Registered User regular
    Are we speaking of Stephen King the author or Steve King the Nazi?

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  • Inkstain82Inkstain82 Registered User regular
    To go into more detail on CA-39, Cisneros was down by 3600 votes going into today, they counted another 10k ballots and he gained 700, so he's now down 2900. The votes keep getting bluer as they count, due to the nature of what's being counted.

    LA Times reporter covering it:



    If there's even 45k votes left to be counted, that's probably enough, and she's estimating more than that.

    JragghenLoisLaneElvenshaeYoutubeThawmus
  • JragghenJragghen Registered User regular
    edited November 2018
    Are we speaking of Stephen King the author or Steve King the Nazi?

    Author. Maine fucking loves him, and he's not a fan of Collins. And he's rather outspoken on politics, honestly.



    But we've veered WAAAAAYY off topic, so let's leave it at that. Sorry for the tangent.

    Jragghen on
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  • DunderDunder Registered User regular
    So how long until we see republicans start introducing bills and state constitutional amendments that severly limits how long vote counting can go on for

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  • visiblehowlvisiblehowl He/Him Neutron Nerd Registered User regular
    So if we assume Sinema has in fact won, then our range of Senate outcomes is:

    net 0 (51 49 R)- Espy pulls off a miracle, Nelson pulls out Florida
    net -1 (52 48 R) - one of the above
    net -2 (53 47 R)- Espy loses, Scott wins

    Looking ahead to 2020:

    Dems are defending: Oregon (Merkley), Minnesota (Smith), New Mexico (Udall), Illinois (Durbin), Michigan (Peters), Virginia (Warner), Delaware (Coons), New Jersey (Booker), Massachusetts (Markey), New Hampshire (Shaheen), and Alabama (Jones).

    So one likely loss, a couple potential swings, but overall not bad.

    GOP: Alaska (Sullivan), Arkansas (Cotton), Colorado (Gardner), Georgia (Perdue), Idaho (Risch), Iowa (Ernst), Kansas (Roberts), Kentucky (McConnell), Louisiana (Cassidy), Maine (Collins), Montana (Daines), Nebraska (Sasse), North Carolina (Tillis), Oklahoma (Inhofe), South Carolina (Graham), South Dakota (Rounds), Tennessee (Alexander), Texas (Cornyn), West Virginia (Capito), and Wyoming (Enzi)

    Also, whoever wins the Mississippi runoff in three weeks has to defend their seat.

    Colorado is an obvious opportunity as that state has been trending Democratic. Maine loves its moderate Republicans, maybe the bloom is off that particular rose though finally. Then it depends on how things develop. Could get Iowa back with the right candidate (and continued tariffs) I think, North Carolina is doable, Georgia and Texas you need Abrams or Beto level candidates like say... Abrams and Beto, we could clone Jon Tester in Montana.

    Also obviously anywhere weird you can recruit a great candidate and suddenly make things competitive. And there are some real assholes we'd love to take out on that list, like McConnell or Graham.

    Winning the Senate seems doable, but it gets a hell of a lot easier if we get the Nelson win in particular. Especially since Espy would have to defend it again.

    Just as an aside, McConnell is actually pretty unpopular in Kentucky. If the Democrats put up a reasonable candidate here and fund them properly, McConnell is far from unbeatable. Historically speaking, though, the Democrats pretty much refuse to do that, so we'll see. Hopefully this blue wave push will make them consider it.

    There are also rumblings that our current shitty governor Matt Bevin is thinking about challenging McConnell in the primary, which would be fantastic. Bevin is a monster, but if he manages to primary McConnell somehow, that's a massive victory before we even get into his chances against a Democrat.

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  • ElendilElendil Registered User regular
    i would trade mcconnell for someone worse than mcconnell just to see him lose

    of course, then we'd have to find someone worse than the person who's worse than mcconnell just to see them lose

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  • jungleroomxjungleroomx And I said, hol up Registered User regular
    Elendil wrote: »
    i would trade mcconnell for someone worse than mcconnell just to see him lose

    of course, then we'd have to find someone worse than the person who's worse than mcconnell just to see them lose

    I mean, logistically, this shouldn't be a problem.

    Make. Time.
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  • rhylithrhylith Registered User regular
    edited November 2018
    Y'all remember those reports of straight ticket voting switching votes from beto to cruz?



    THANK GOD.

    These machines are total garbage. Why in the hell would you select an option by spinning a little wheel? WHY?

    Edit: the houston chronicle is a newspaper

    rhylith on
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  • enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    So if we assume Sinema has in fact won, then our range of Senate outcomes is:

    net 0 (51 49 R)- Espy pulls off a miracle, Nelson pulls out Florida
    net -1 (52 48 R) - one of the above
    net -2 (53 47 R)- Espy loses, Scott wins

    Looking ahead to 2020:

    Dems are defending: Oregon (Merkley), Minnesota (Smith), New Mexico (Udall), Illinois (Durbin), Michigan (Peters), Virginia (Warner), Delaware (Coons), New Jersey (Booker), Massachusetts (Markey), New Hampshire (Shaheen), and Alabama (Jones).

    So one likely loss, a couple potential swings, but overall not bad.

    GOP: Alaska (Sullivan), Arkansas (Cotton), Colorado (Gardner), Georgia (Perdue), Idaho (Risch), Iowa (Ernst), Kansas (Roberts), Kentucky (McConnell), Louisiana (Cassidy), Maine (Collins), Montana (Daines), Nebraska (Sasse), North Carolina (Tillis), Oklahoma (Inhofe), South Carolina (Graham), South Dakota (Rounds), Tennessee (Alexander), Texas (Cornyn), West Virginia (Capito), and Wyoming (Enzi)

    Also, whoever wins the Mississippi runoff in three weeks has to defend their seat.

    Colorado is an obvious opportunity as that state has been trending Democratic. Maine loves its moderate Republicans, maybe the bloom is off that particular rose though finally. Then it depends on how things develop. Could get Iowa back with the right candidate (and continued tariffs) I think, North Carolina is doable, Georgia and Texas you need Abrams or Beto level candidates like say... Abrams and Beto, we could clone Jon Tester in Montana.

    Also obviously anywhere weird you can recruit a great candidate and suddenly make things competitive. And there are some real assholes we'd love to take out on that list, like McConnell or Graham.

    Winning the Senate seems doable, but it gets a hell of a lot easier if we get the Nelson win in particular. Especially since Espy would have to defend it again.

    Just as an aside, McConnell is actually pretty unpopular in Kentucky. If the Democrats put up a reasonable candidate here and fund them properly, McConnell is far from unbeatable. Historically speaking, though, the Democrats pretty much refuse to do that, so we'll see. Hopefully this blue wave push will make them consider it.

    There are also rumblings that our current shitty governor Matt Bevin is thinking about challenging McConnell in the primary, which would be fantastic. Bevin is a monster, but if he manages to primary McConnell somehow, that's a massive victory before we even get into his chances against a Democrat.

    I know. I'm bummed McGrath lost for this reason.

    Herbert Hoover got 40% of the vote in 1932. Friendly reminder.
    Warren 2020
  • joshofalltradesjoshofalltrades 地獄のようにかわいい あなたは嫉妬深いかRegistered User regular
    rhylith wrote: »
    Y'all remember those reports of straight ticket voting switching votes from beto to cruz?



    THANK GOD.

    These machines are total garbage. Why in the hell would you select an option by spinning a little wheel? WHY?

    It’s been this way as long as I can remember. Might as well have just set up a bank of Commodore 64s or Vote by Wiimote, waggle only.

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    青!
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  • lonelyahavalonelyahava Mortius is correct Move to New ZealandRegistered User regular
    I don't have a cite cause they're internal numbers

    But democrats abroad have our absentee participation up by 800% over 2014.

    So the fact that absentee ballots are making a difference isn't a surprise.

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  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    edited November 2018
    rhylith wrote: »
    Y'all remember those reports of straight ticket voting switching votes from beto to cruz?



    THANK GOD.

    These machines are total garbage. Why in the hell would you select an option by spinning a little wheel? WHY?

    It’s been this way as long as I can remember. Might as well have just set up a bank of Commodore 64s or Vote by Wiimote, waggle only.

    Just solder the name of your candidate on this motherboard...

    moniker on
    joshofalltradesPLA
  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    moniker wrote: »
    rhylith wrote: »
    Y'all remember those reports of straight ticket voting switching votes from beto to cruz?



    THANK GOD.

    These machines are total garbage. Why in the hell would you select an option by spinning a little wheel? WHY?

    It’s been this way as long as I can remember. Might as well have just set up a bank of Commodore 64s or Vote by Wiimote, waggle only.

    Just solder the name of your candidate on this motherboard...

    "Here's a rubix cube. Each colour represents a specific candidate. Place a complete side with the appropriate colour under the camera to vote."

    Mild ConfusionGnome-InterruptusGennenalyse RuebenKamarIncenjucarKristmas KthulhuHefflingMan in the Mists
  • rhylithrhylith Registered User regular
    rhylith wrote: »
    Y'all remember those reports of straight ticket voting switching votes from beto to cruz?



    THANK GOD.

    These machines are total garbage. Why in the hell would you select an option by spinning a little wheel? WHY?

    It’s been this way as long as I can remember. Might as well have just set up a bank of Commodore 64s or Vote by Wiimote, waggle only.

    Waggle 1-30 times for republican, precisely 31 times for democrat, 32+ for third party. Which one? Doesn't matter we'll pick for you.

    Rhylith - <Shambler Milk> Horde Chogall
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  • enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    edited November 2018
    By the way, the Marquette poll continues to be spooky in Wisconsin:

    They were kiiiinda on an island in the governor's race as the only ones to give Walker a good chance, basically.

    enlightenedbum on
    Herbert Hoover got 40% of the vote in 1932. Friendly reminder.
    Warren 2020
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  • PantsBPantsB Registered User regular
    rhylith wrote: »
    Y'all remember those reports of straight ticket voting switching votes from beto to cruz?



    THANK GOD.

    These machines are total garbage. Why in the hell would you select an option by spinning a little wheel? WHY?

    It’s been this way as long as I can remember. Might as well have just set up a bank of Commodore 64s or Vote by Wiimote, waggle only.
    “We must replace the current electronic machines with an electronic machine that produces a verifiable paper trail,” Trautman said. “The problem, of course, is the funding.”
    Pens are pretty cheap

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  • DoodmannDoodmann Registered User regular
    shryke wrote: »
    moniker wrote: »
    rhylith wrote: »
    Y'all remember those reports of straight ticket voting switching votes from beto to cruz?



    THANK GOD.

    These machines are total garbage. Why in the hell would you select an option by spinning a little wheel? WHY?

    It’s been this way as long as I can remember. Might as well have just set up a bank of Commodore 64s or Vote by Wiimote, waggle only.

    Just solder the name of your candidate on this motherboard...

    "Here's a rubix cube. Each colour represents a specific candidate. Place a complete side with the appropriate colour under the camera to vote."

    That actually might be easier than some.ballots...even if it takes a little longer.

    wandering
  • BronzeKoopaBronzeKoopa Registered User regular
    edited November 2018
    A bunch of mail-in ballots in Miami-Dade may have not been delivered in time and counted because a mail center was locked down/evacuated due to the mail bomber back in October:
    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/11/postal-facility-locked-pro-trump-mail-bomber-may-thousands-ballots-democrat-heavy-district/

    BronzeKoopa on
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  • MayabirdMayabird Pecking at the keyboardRegistered User regular
    So NY-11 was the last densely urban GOP congressional seat, the last one in NYC, the last really conservative bastion. It's the one with Staten Island, and it flipped in the midterm. When the news has talked about it, it's been cast as "the suburbs abandoning the GOP" like in other districts, but Mother Jones just published a story about how a group of Arab-American women jolted into political action by Trump and his racism powered the flip via phone banking, GOTV drives, and so on, and not just flipped the Congressional seat but also the state senate seat, which helped the NY state senate go Democratic for the trifecta.

    It wasn't just a thing that happened. People made it happen.

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  • MarathonMarathon Registered User regular
    A bunch of mail-in ballots in Miami-Dade may have not been delivered in time and counted because a mail center was locked down/evacuated due to the mail bomber back in October:
    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/11/postal-facility-locked-pro-trump-mail-bomber-may-thousands-ballots-democrat-heavy-district/

    This is some bullshit. An official in Florida is saying those ballots are now invalid because they weren’t delivered in time, through no fault of the people who put the ballots in the mail in time.

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  • MorganVMorganV Registered User regular
    Just caught up on this thread.

    To Brian Kemp, Rick Scott, and the GOP in Arizona, I want to say, "Fuck off with your complaints about slow vote counting."

    Kemp was Secretary of State. Scott was Governor. Arizona Republicans have held the Governorship and SecState for the past five elections.

    You could have fixed this shit. You chose not to. Fuck off with your whining.

    Especially Rick Scott. This has been an issue since at least 2000. You knew about it. You did nothing about it. Eat shit. Hope you lose.

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  • SyphonBlueSyphonBlue Registered User regular
    MorganV wrote: »
    Just caught up on this thread.

    To Brian Kemp, Rick Scott, and the GOP in Arizona, I want to say, "Fuck off with your complaints about slow vote counting."

    Kemp was Secretary of State. Scott was Governor. Arizona Republicans have held the Governorship and SecState for the past five elections.

    You could have fixed this shit. You chose not to. Fuck off with your whining.

    Especially Rick Scott. This has been an issue since at least 2000. You knew about it. You did nothing about it. Eat shit. Hope you lose.

    This is by design though. They're only bitching about it now because it's finally being used against them instead of for them.

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  • MorganVMorganV Registered User regular
    SyphonBlue wrote: »
    MorganV wrote: »
    Just caught up on this thread.

    To Brian Kemp, Rick Scott, and the GOP in Arizona, I want to say, "Fuck off with your complaints about slow vote counting."

    Kemp was Secretary of State. Scott was Governor. Arizona Republicans have held the Governorship and SecState for the past five elections.

    You could have fixed this shit. You chose not to. Fuck off with your whining.

    Especially Rick Scott. This has been an issue since at least 2000. You knew about it. You did nothing about it. Eat shit. Hope you lose.

    This is by design though. They're only bitching about it now because it's finally being used against them instead of for them.

    Oh, I know. Hence "Eat shit. Hope you lose."

    Nothing more satisfying for the soul than a dick being dicked by their own dickery.

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  • ViskodViskod Registered User regular
    A bunch of mail-in ballots in Miami-Dade may have not been delivered in time and counted because a mail center was locked down/evacuated due to the mail bomber back in October:
    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/11/postal-facility-locked-pro-trump-mail-bomber-may-thousands-ballots-democrat-heavy-district/

    So they are seriously just not going to count these votes? I don’t under stand these arbitrary time limits. What’s the point of lame duck periods if there’s such an important hurry.

    Artereis wrote: »
    It's not your fault, Viskod. 1 out of every 10 people just happens to be a monster.
  • enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    Viskod wrote: »
    A bunch of mail-in ballots in Miami-Dade may have not been delivered in time and counted because a mail center was locked down/evacuated due to the mail bomber back in October:
    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/11/postal-facility-locked-pro-trump-mail-bomber-may-thousands-ballots-democrat-heavy-district/

    So they are seriously just not going to count these votes? I don’t under stand these arbitrary time limits. What’s the point of lame duck periods if there’s such an important hurry.

    Big areas take longer to count, are more Democratic.

    Herbert Hoover got 40% of the vote in 1932. Friendly reminder.
    Warren 2020
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  • DacDac Registered User regular
    Viskod wrote: »
    A bunch of mail-in ballots in Miami-Dade may have not been delivered in time and counted because a mail center was locked down/evacuated due to the mail bomber back in October:
    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/11/postal-facility-locked-pro-trump-mail-bomber-may-thousands-ballots-democrat-heavy-district/

    So they are seriously just not going to count these votes? I don’t under stand these arbitrary time limits. What’s the point of lame duck periods if there’s such an important hurry.

    Big areas take longer to count, are more Democratic.

    The big one.

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  • QuidQuid I don't... what... hnnng Registered User regular
    SyphonBlue wrote: »
    MorganV wrote: »
    Just caught up on this thread.

    To Brian Kemp, Rick Scott, and the GOP in Arizona, I want to say, "Fuck off with your complaints about slow vote counting."

    Kemp was Secretary of State. Scott was Governor. Arizona Republicans have held the Governorship and SecState for the past five elections.

    You could have fixed this shit. You chose not to. Fuck off with your whining.

    Especially Rick Scott. This has been an issue since at least 2000. You knew about it. You did nothing about it. Eat shit. Hope you lose.

    This is by design though. They're only bitching about it now because it's finally being used against them instead of for them.

    See: Every conservative whining on my new rep's page that majority rule means their voices aren't being heard fairly after nearly three decades of majority rule Republican representation.

    thatassemblyguymonikerFencingsaxCantideLord_AsmodeusPreacherdurandal4532MillGennenalyse RuebenYoutubeJaysonFourPLAiTunesIsEvilMan in the MistsTofystedeth
  • Santa ClaustrophobiaSanta Claustrophobia Ho Ho Ho Disconnecting from Xbox LIVERegistered User regular
    Further proof people still don't understand 'no taxation without representation'.

    monikerGennenalyse RuebenJaysonFourFencingsax
  • PreacherPreacher Registered User regular
    Quid wrote: »
    SyphonBlue wrote: »
    MorganV wrote: »
    Just caught up on this thread.

    To Brian Kemp, Rick Scott, and the GOP in Arizona, I want to say, "Fuck off with your complaints about slow vote counting."

    Kemp was Secretary of State. Scott was Governor. Arizona Republicans have held the Governorship and SecState for the past five elections.

    You could have fixed this shit. You chose not to. Fuck off with your whining.

    Especially Rick Scott. This has been an issue since at least 2000. You knew about it. You did nothing about it. Eat shit. Hope you lose.

    This is by design though. They're only bitching about it now because it's finally being used against them instead of for them.

    See: Every conservative whining on my new rep's page that majority rule means their voices aren't being heard fairly after nearly three decades of majority rule Republican representation.

    The single stupidest thing I continue to read anytime the Dems get control is always the "remember the minority" as if the the fucking GOP ever does that god damn ever, except "remember to fuck over minorities."

    I would like some money because these are artisanal nuggets of wisdom philistine.

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  • Inkstain82Inkstain82 Registered User regular


    Election writer, editor of the Cook Report, etc.

    This is gonna make having to drive past the Richard Nixon Presidential Museum every day a little more palatable.

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  • grumblethorngrumblethorn Registered User regular
    Woops, I counted 22 invalid votes in this batch, better make them official! See this is the kind of crap that gives credence to even the most outlandish statements from Scott. This woman has a spotty track record, defied court orders and add this to boot. How she is in charge of elections is baffling.
    https://www.miamiherald.com/latest-news/article221478875.html

  • CouscousCouscous Registered User regular
    The person in charge in Broward County was appointed by Jeb and Scott didn't have a problem with them before.

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  • Captain CarrotCaptain Carrot Alexandria, VARegistered User regular
    If you've mixed a handful of invalid votes with a large armful of good votes, better to include a few people who shouldn't have voted than exclude a bunch of people who did nothing wrong. (Also, excluding ballots based on a signature mismatch can be awfully overzealous.)

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  • DisrupterDisrupter Registered User regular
    Yeah like I said after I voted they were really pushing back on my signature and my buddy had an even worse issue with it

    Signature is a dumb way to validate

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  • ElJeffeElJeffe Moderator, ClubPA mod
    Woops, I counted 22 invalid votes in this batch, better make them official! See this is the kind of crap that gives credence to even the most outlandish statements from Scott. This woman has a spotty track record, defied court orders and add this to boot. How she is in charge of elections is baffling.
    https://www.miamiherald.com/latest-news/article221478875.html

    It seems that Snipes is bad at her job. We can absolutely talk about changing vote counting procedures for next time. That's an excellent idea.

    In the meantime, we have a bunch of votes sitting here. We kinda need to figure out what to do with them! If there are 200 valid votes mixed with 20 invalid ones, it seems we have two choices: one, we ignore them all, throwing off the totals by 200 votes; or two, we count them all, throwing off the totals by 20 votes.

    We should find some sort of statistics expert to help us determine which of those numbers is bigger.

    Now, if there was reason to believe all of those 20 votes were deliberate fraud, you might have a good case for tossing the whole batch, because you would be introducing a known systematic bias. But most likely, the invalid votes are random fuckups that wouldn't introduce any systematic bias.

    But this is all irrelevant, because the only reason Republicans want to ignore these votes is because they come from a democratic leaning area.

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  • FairchildFairchild Rabbit used short words that were easy to understand, like "Hello Pooh, how about Lunch ?" Registered User regular
    I think that Rick Scott likes keeping Brenda Snipes around as a foil, figuring that her toxic blend of dishonesty and incompetence is not enough to be fatal but is enough to fire up Republican voters. It was nearly fatal this time, however. I suspect that the first thing that new Governor DeSantis will do is fire her.

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  • Inkstain82Inkstain82 Registered User regular
    Not to mention that the *reason* those 20 votes are "invalid" is the completely ridiculous flim-flammery that is "invalid signature match."

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  • CelestialBadgerCelestialBadger Registered User regular
    Inkstain82 wrote: »
    Not to mention that the *reason* those 20 votes are "invalid" is the completely ridiculous flim-flammery that is "invalid signature match."

    That would have definitely invalidated my vote. I never sign it the same way twice.

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