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2018 Congressional/Senate Election Results Thread

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Posts

  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    Inkstain82 wrote: »
    Not to mention that the *reason* those 20 votes are "invalid" is the completely ridiculous flim-flammery that is "invalid signature match."

    They should track who the invalidated ballots voted for too and check for shenanigans.

  • Santa ClaustrophobiaSanta Claustrophobia Ho Ho Ho Disconnecting from Xbox LIVERegistered User regular
    Inkstain82 wrote: »
    Not to mention that the *reason* those 20 votes are "invalid" is the completely ridiculous flim-flammery that is "invalid signature match."

    That would have definitely invalidated my vote. I never sign it the same way twice.

    Nobody does.

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  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    ElJeffe wrote: »
    Woops, I counted 22 invalid votes in this batch, better make them official! See this is the kind of crap that gives credence to even the most outlandish statements from Scott. This woman has a spotty track record, defied court orders and add this to boot. How she is in charge of elections is baffling.
    https://www.miamiherald.com/latest-news/article221478875.html

    It seems that Snipes is bad at her job. We can absolutely talk about changing vote counting procedures for next time. That's an excellent idea.

    In the meantime, we have a bunch of votes sitting here. We kinda need to figure out what to do with them! If there are 200 valid votes mixed with 20 invalid ones, it seems we have two choices: one, we ignore them all, throwing off the totals by 200 votes; or two, we count them all, throwing off the totals by 20 votes.

    We should find some sort of statistics expert to help us determine which of those numbers is bigger.

    Now, if there was reason to believe all of those 20 votes were deliberate fraud, you might have a good case for tossing the whole batch, because you would be introducing a known systematic bias. But most likely, the invalid votes are random fuckups that wouldn't introduce any systematic bias.

    But this is all irrelevant, because the only reason Republicans want to ignore these votes is because they come from a democratic leaning area.

    We should count every vote, and contact anyone who has a signature mismatch to make sure it isn't fraudulent. There is plenty of time before we have to sweat in Governor Al Gore.

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  • Captain CarrotCaptain Carrot Alexandria, VARegistered User regular
    edited November 2018
    This site, which was updated shortly before noon on the 10th, and appears to be run by the state of Georgia, has 1,975,162 for Kemp, to 1,912,383 for Abrams and 37,113 for Metz. That puts Kemp at 50.33%, and if there were another 25,647 votes solely for Abrams or Metz, he would be one vote short of 50%.

    CBS, last updated supposedly at 5 the same day but appears to reset that time whether or not there is actual news, has 1,975,792 for Kemp, to 1,917,027 for Abrams and 37,149 for Metz. Kemp is at 50.27%, and the net gain for not-Kemp needs to be 21,617.

    That's a difference of 4,030 votes needed for 5,310 counted. If that ratio holds, and there's no evidence I can see to conclude anything at all, Abrams needs another 29,020 votes to keep Kemp one vote under 50%. That's a higher number than I've seen anyone estimate so far, unfortunately, and I think those were made for a set of counts several batches of votes ago.

    Captain Carrot on
  • ElJeffeElJeffe Moderator, ClubPA mod
    I was assuming that the batch of counted votes in question was 200 valid votes mixed with 22 invalid, but there was no way to tell which was which. Like, the ballots were separated from their signatures, or whatever.

    Do we actually know which are the 22? Why not just toss those? What the fuck is the issue here?

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  • TNTrooperTNTrooper Registered User regular
    ElJeffe wrote: »
    I was assuming that the batch of counted votes in question was 200 valid votes mixed with 22 invalid, but there was no way to tell which was which. Like, the ballots were separated from their signatures, or whatever.

    Do we actually know which are the 22? Why not just toss those? What the fuck is the issue here?

    That the other 200 ballots are still being counted.

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  • Captain CarrotCaptain Carrot Alexandria, VARegistered User regular
    According to the article, Snipes took the ballots out of their envelopes and then got the piles mixed up, so she doesn't know which ones are part of the invalid 10%, and there's no way anyone else could know. There's also no indication of how carefully the envelopes were judged invalid, and certain people *cough Shelby County* have this odd tendency to mark ballots invalid at a higher rate when there are indications that they're not from white wealthy people.

  • Santa ClaustrophobiaSanta Claustrophobia Ho Ho Ho Disconnecting from Xbox LIVERegistered User regular
    She just opened ballots and placed then any old where? Really?

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  • grumblethorngrumblethorn Registered User regular
    The point is this woman and her predecessor have broken the law and violated election rules/laws numerous times, either out of gross incompetence or maliciousness. Palm Beach County has the same problem, with the election official ignoring rules and filling out new ballots for voters without following the rules. When you throw chain of custody issues, wanton disregard for transparency and outright toxic behavior, I'm more inclined to side with Scott on this. I don't give a flying leap who appointed who, the responsibility lies with the county chief.

    https://www.wtsp.com/article/news/politics/elections/who-is-brenda-snipes-the-broward-county-supervisor-of-elections/67-612946611

  • Inkstain82Inkstain82 Registered User regular
    The point is this woman and her predecessor have broken the law and violated election rules/laws numerous times, either out of gross incompetence or maliciousness. Palm Beach County has the same problem, with the election official ignoring rules and filling out new ballots for voters without following the rules. When you throw chain of custody issues, wanton disregard for transparency and outright toxic behavior, I'm more inclined to side with Scott on this. I don't give a flying leap who appointed who, the responsibility lies with the county chief.

    https://www.wtsp.com/article/news/politics/elections/who-is-brenda-snipes-the-broward-county-supervisor-of-elections/67-612946611

    Cool. Fire her if you want, by whatever mechanisms that are in place for that.

    Votes still count.

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  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    The point is this woman and her predecessor have broken the law and violated election rules/laws numerous times, either out of gross incompetence or maliciousness. Palm Beach County has the same problem, with the election official ignoring rules and filling out new ballots for voters without following the rules. When you throw chain of custody issues, wanton disregard for transparency and outright toxic behavior, I'm more inclined to side with Scott on this. I don't give a flying leap who appointed who, the responsibility lies with the county chief.

    https://www.wtsp.com/article/news/politics/elections/who-is-brenda-snipes-the-broward-county-supervisor-of-elections/67-612946611

    It's not the voters fault she's incompetent. Their democratic rights should not be violated because of it.

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  • SyphonBlueSyphonBlue Registered User regular
    The point is this woman and her predecessor have broken the law and violated election rules/laws numerous times, either out of gross incompetence or maliciousness. Palm Beach County has the same problem, with the election official ignoring rules and filling out new ballots for voters without following the rules. When you throw chain of custody issues, wanton disregard for transparency and outright toxic behavior, I'm more inclined to side with Scott on this. I don't give a flying leap who appointed who, the responsibility lies with the county chief.

    https://www.wtsp.com/article/news/politics/elections/who-is-brenda-snipes-the-broward-county-supervisor-of-elections/67-612946611

    Brenda Snipes is incompetent, but you don't throw out tens of thousands of votes because of that. Republicans had no problems with her incompetence before it started affecting them.

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  • dispatch.odispatch.o Registered User regular
    It's almost as if when you bake as many windows for vote tampering and confusion into the process sometimes weird shit happens?!

    Should transfer Florida's statehood to Puerto Rico and let them sort this thing out for a few years.

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  • PhasenPhasen 2020 or bustRegistered User regular
    @grumblethorn what exactly are you getting at? Yeah she should be removed for a couple of different reasons. I don't think you will find people who disagree with that.

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  • ElJeffeElJeffe Moderator, ClubPA mod
    I'm assuming the preferred Republican course of action here is to throw out all of the Broward votes, but leave Snipes in place. That way, they get to throw out Broward votes next time, too! Win-win!

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  • HakkekageHakkekage Space Whore Academy summa cum laudeRegistered User regular
    Wow an incompetent elections officer with a long and storied history of incompetence, I wonder what corrupt partisan hack put her in that position to underhandedly throw the counts to Democrats--
    Republican Gov. Jeb Bush asked Snipes to serve as Supervisor of Elections in Broward County – Florida's second-most populous county – nearly 15 years ago.

    oh. well people make mistakes. Now that she's been in office for a while screwing things up all the time I'm sure the next captain of the USS Florida, for the good of the crew, made efforts to relieve the feckless supervisor of her duties as any good executive officer would do--oh, Governor Scott didn't do anything like that? Not a problem in his other elections? oh--

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  • PantsBPantsB Registered User regular
    edited November 2018
    https://floridapolitics.com/archives/280954-bill-nelsons-attorney-still-likes-his-odds-heres-why
    If design were a major element, Elias said, then ballots counted in Broward County since Tuesday would have similarly discrepancies. But Elias says as he observes election returns, the most recently counted ballots don’t show a significant deficit in Senate votes.

    That leads Elias to believe the issue had to do with machine calibration. The devices counting votes must be carefully set to count light marks for votes but not be so sensitive to pick up stray marks as overvotes.

    Machines across the state will be recalibrated before the recount, which most counties expect to start Sunday. That should lead more votes cast for U.S. Senate.

    Based on where there seem to be a high number of undervotes, Elias expects gains for Nelson.

    But even if the machines don’t pick up all potential votes, Elias expects a hand recount will find more. State law requires a manual recount if the vote margin remains within 0.25 percent.

    “The human eye can make judgments on voter intent that machines can’t,” Elias said.

    If a voter marked a bubble with an ‘X’ or circled a choice, then a machine likely won’t count that. But a canvassing board will put that vote into totals.
    If the undercount stopped happening with later votes it probably wasn't ballot design and Nelson should be favored

    PantsB on
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  • enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    Sinema up 1.5% now.

    Herbert Hoover got 40% of the vote in 1932. Friendly reminder.
    Warren 2020
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  • madparrotmadparrot Registered User regular
    edited November 2018
    Looks like Comrade Rohrabacher is out in CA-48

    madparrot on
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  • MarathonMarathon Registered User regular
    I’m still so disappointed that Iowa didn’t send Steve King with him.

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  • BlackDragon480BlackDragon480 Bluster Kerfuffle Master of Windy ImportRegistered User regular
    madparrot wrote: »
    Looks like Comrade Rohrabacher is out in CA-48

    Apparently the Kremlin didn't spring for the extended warranty or Geek Squad support contract. Here's hoping the next house can find the receipts and return him to Customer Service/jail.

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  • enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    Professor at Florida:



    Highest midterm turnout since 1914.

    Herbert Hoover got 40% of the vote in 1932. Friendly reminder.
    Warren 2020
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  • CelestialBadgerCelestialBadger Registered User regular
    madparrot wrote: »
    Looks like Comrade Rohrabacher is out in CA-48

    Apparently the Kremlin didn't spring for the extended warranty or Geek Squad support contract. Here's hoping the next house can find the receipts and return him to Customer Service/jail.

    The whole election didn’t have the mysteriously appearing fake news that turned out to be Russian that we got in the last election. There was some “fake news” eg the caravan of migrants being hardened criminals rather than refugees, but the source was very clearly American. Guess Putin has lost interest.

    Commander ZoomGnome-Interruptus
  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    Professor at Florida:



    Highest midterm turnout since 1914.

    Getting a majority of people to vote occurs less frequently than once a century? That is the saddest thing.

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  • Undead ScottsmanUndead Scottsman Registered User regular
    madparrot wrote: »
    Looks like Comrade Rohrabacher is out in CA-48

    Apparently the Kremlin didn't spring for the extended warranty or Geek Squad support contract. Here's hoping the next house can find the receipts and return him to Customer Service/jail.

    The whole election didn’t have the mysteriously appearing fake news that turned out to be Russian that we got in the last election. There was some “fake news” eg the caravan of migrants being hardened criminals rather than refugees, but the source was very clearly American. Guess Putin has lost interest.

    I'm very surprised they didn't look at the very obvious turn to blue and decide to fuck with things to benefit the Democrats so that Trump could have a legitimate reason to whine about legitimacy.

    I guess that'll be 2020

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  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    moniker wrote: »
    Professor at Florida:



    Highest midterm turnout since 1914.

    Getting a majority of people to vote occurs less frequently than once a century? That is the saddest thing.

    Highest midterm turnout, remember that the last election was our ridiculous bonus election designed to create decision fatigue and benefit wealthy landowners over less frequently voting smallholders.

    "That is cool" - Abraham Lincoln
    Gnome-Interruptus
  • Santa ClaustrophobiaSanta Claustrophobia Ho Ho Ho Disconnecting from Xbox LIVERegistered User regular
    madparrot wrote: »
    Looks like Comrade Rohrabacher is out in CA-48

    Apparently the Kremlin didn't spring for the extended warranty or Geek Squad support contract. Here's hoping the next house can find the receipts and return him to Customer Service/jail.

    The whole election didn’t have the mysteriously appearing fake news that turned out to be Russian that we got in the last election. There was some “fake news” eg the caravan of migrants being hardened criminals rather than refugees, but the source was very clearly American. Guess Putin has lost interest.

    I'm very surprised they didn't look at the very obvious turn to blue and decide to fuck with things to benefit the Democrats so that Trump could have a legitimate reason to whine about legitimacy.

    I guess that'll be 2020

    They don't really need to at this point. Once you've poisoned the well, the well stays poisoned.

    PreachermonikerDoodmannLoisLaneMegaMekTicaldfjamRozElvenshae
  • AtomikaAtomika technology is your dickfist Registered User regular
    Professor at Florida:



    Highest midterm turnout since 1914.

    Trump is an undeniably inspiring figure

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  • HappylilElfHappylilElf Registered User regular
    madparrot wrote: »
    Looks like Comrade Rohrabacher is out in CA-48

    Apparently the Kremlin didn't spring for the extended warranty or Geek Squad support contract. Here's hoping the next house can find the receipts and return him to Customer Service/jail.

    The whole election didn’t have the mysteriously appearing fake news that turned out to be Russian that we got in the last election. There was some “fake news” eg the caravan of migrants being hardened criminals rather than refugees, but the source was very clearly American. Guess Putin has lost interest.

    I'm very surprised they didn't look at the very obvious turn to blue and decide to fuck with things to benefit the Democrats so that Trump could have a legitimate reason to whine about legitimacy.

    I guess that'll be 2020

    They don't really need to at this point. Once you've poisoned the well, the well stays poisoned.

    Also I imagine a not insignificant portion of our intelligence agencies are actively watching for that kind of shit from now on

    Harry DresdenMvrckMan in the Mists
  • ScooterScooter Registered User regular
    edited November 2018
    moniker wrote: »
    Professor at Florida:



    Highest midterm turnout since 1914.

    Getting a majority of people to vote occurs less frequently than once a century? That is the saddest thing.

    Women and people 18-20 couldn't vote in 1914. Especially with the 18-20 block, who are the least reliable voters, that's gonna skew the stats.

    Scooter on
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  • Harry DresdenHarry Dresden Registered User regular
    madparrot wrote: »
    Looks like Comrade Rohrabacher is out in CA-48

    Apparently the Kremlin didn't spring for the extended warranty or Geek Squad support contract. Here's hoping the next house can find the receipts and return him to Customer Service/jail.

    The whole election didn’t have the mysteriously appearing fake news that turned out to be Russian that we got in the last election. There was some “fake news” eg the caravan of migrants being hardened criminals rather than refugees, but the source was very clearly American. Guess Putin has lost interest.

    I'm very surprised they didn't look at the very obvious turn to blue and decide to fuck with things to benefit the Democrats so that Trump could have a legitimate reason to whine about legitimacy.

    I guess that'll be 2020

    They don't really need to at this point. Once you've poisoned the well, the well stays poisoned.

    IIRC there were FBI, CIA etc reports that the Russians were in motion for future election meddling, so don't count them out completely yet.

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  • JragghenJragghen Registered User regular
    madparrot wrote: »
    Looks like Comrade Rohrabacher is out in CA-48

    That's getting close to number 40, right?

  • electricitylikesmeelectricitylikesme Registered User regular
    edited November 2018
    PantsB wrote: »
    https://floridapolitics.com/archives/280954-bill-nelsons-attorney-still-likes-his-odds-heres-why
    If design were a major element, Elias said, then ballots counted in Broward County since Tuesday would have similarly discrepancies. But Elias says as he observes election returns, the most recently counted ballots don’t show a significant deficit in Senate votes.

    That leads Elias to believe the issue had to do with machine calibration. The devices counting votes must be carefully set to count light marks for votes but not be so sensitive to pick up stray marks as overvotes.

    Machines across the state will be recalibrated before the recount, which most counties expect to start Sunday. That should lead more votes cast for U.S. Senate.

    Based on where there seem to be a high number of undervotes, Elias expects gains for Nelson.

    But even if the machines don’t pick up all potential votes, Elias expects a hand recount will find more. State law requires a manual recount if the vote margin remains within 0.25 percent.

    “The human eye can make judgments on voter intent that machines can’t,” Elias said.

    If a voter marked a bubble with an ‘X’ or circled a choice, then a machine likely won’t count that. But a canvassing board will put that vote into totals.
    If the undercount stopped happening with later votes it probably wasn't ballot design and Nelson should be favored

    Can I just say, as an Australian, how batshit crazy it is that America accepts any of these explanations at all?

    Like holy fucking christ: set aside the fact we don't do machine counts here, if someone tried to introduce them the existence of this statement would kill them flat dead immediately.

    electricitylikesme on
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  • jungleroomxjungleroomx And I said, hol up Registered User regular
    PantsB wrote: »
    https://floridapolitics.com/archives/280954-bill-nelsons-attorney-still-likes-his-odds-heres-why
    If design were a major element, Elias said, then ballots counted in Broward County since Tuesday would have similarly discrepancies. But Elias says as he observes election returns, the most recently counted ballots don’t show a significant deficit in Senate votes.

    That leads Elias to believe the issue had to do with machine calibration. The devices counting votes must be carefully set to count light marks for votes but not be so sensitive to pick up stray marks as overvotes.

    Machines across the state will be recalibrated before the recount, which most counties expect to start Sunday. That should lead more votes cast for U.S. Senate.

    Based on where there seem to be a high number of undervotes, Elias expects gains for Nelson.

    But even if the machines don’t pick up all potential votes, Elias expects a hand recount will find more. State law requires a manual recount if the vote margin remains within 0.25 percent.

    “The human eye can make judgments on voter intent that machines can’t,” Elias said.

    If a voter marked a bubble with an ‘X’ or circled a choice, then a machine likely won’t count that. But a canvassing board will put that vote into totals.
    If the undercount stopped happening with later votes it probably wasn't ballot design and Nelson should be favored

    Can I just say, as an Australian, how batshit crazy it is that America accepts any of these explanations at all?

    Like holy fucking christ: set aside the fact we don't do machine counts here, if someone tried to introduce them the existence of this statement would kill them flat dead immediately.

    I know very few people do who accept it.

    But any attempt to get rid of them is immediately squashed as a partisan issue and nobody is in danger of losing their elected position because of it.

    Make. Time.
    FencingsaxHarry DresdenCantidemonikerdispatch.oBrody
  • FencingsaxFencingsax It is difficult to get a man to understand, when his salary depends upon his not understanding GNU Terry PratchettRegistered User regular
    madparrot wrote: »
    Looks like Comrade Rohrabacher is out in CA-48

    Apparently the Kremlin didn't spring for the extended warranty or Geek Squad support contract. Here's hoping the next house can find the receipts and return him to Customer Service/jail.

    The whole election didn’t have the mysteriously appearing fake news that turned out to be Russian that we got in the last election. There was some “fake news” eg the caravan of migrants being hardened criminals rather than refugees, but the source was very clearly American. Guess Putin has lost interest.

    I'm very surprised they didn't look at the very obvious turn to blue and decide to fuck with things to benefit the Democrats so that Trump could have a legitimate reason to whine about legitimacy.

    I guess that'll be 2020

    They don't really need to at this point. Once you've poisoned the well, the well stays poisoned.

    IIRC there were FBI, CIA etc reports that the Russians were in motion for future election meddling, so don't count them out completely yet.

    Yeah, the Russians were practicing for 2020

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    Harry DresdenYoutube
  • PantsBPantsB Registered User regular
    Professor at Florida:



    Highest midterm turnout since 1914.

    Before womens suffrage

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    QEDMF xbl: PantsB G+
    Captain Inertia
  • Crimson KingCrimson King Registered User regular
    what was going on in 1914? the great war?

  • Harry DresdenHarry Dresden Registered User regular
    what was going on in 1914? the great war?

    World War 1's first year.

    monikerElvenshae
  • Styrofoam SammichStyrofoam Sammich WANT. 5386-8443-8937Registered User regular
    Tracking voter turnout to what was going on and what laws were like is pretty interesting. For instance mid terms, by some measures, had better voter turnout than presidential elections in the first couple years of the Constitution.

  • enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    edited November 2018


    Editor of the Cook Political Report

    Governor-elect Kelly in Kansas should also be included here.

    No real unifying theme there other than charisma = good. Though I've never really heard anyone say that about Wolf. Being a MI/PA/WI Dem with people horrified at what they did was a pretty good strategy this cycle.

    enlightenedbum on
    Herbert Hoover got 40% of the vote in 1932. Friendly reminder.
    Warren 2020
    CouscousMegaMekmonikerA Kobold's KoboldElvenshae
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