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[Canadian Politics] Takin' out the trash to replace it with... whoops.

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Posts

  • mrondeaumrondeau Montréal, CanadaRegistered User regular
    The NPD cratered in Québec for the same reasons it cratered in the rest of the country.

    CanadianWolverine
  • ShadowenShadowen Snores in the morning Registered User regular
    Disco11 wrote: »
    Steelhawk wrote: »
    Ok. Despite not liking the Bloc and what they stand for... their leaders have all been pretty baller...


    Yeah that's great.

    He defiantly has the snark down.

    Also, I try not to judge people's appearances (well, things they can't help, anyway) while making political comments about them anymore, but fuck me if that doesn't look like exactly the type of guy you'd expect to ask about western separatism.

    shrykeDisco11TubularLuggageAridhol
  • RichyRichy Registered User regular
    338 numbers sure are making me feel pointless about Nova Scotia. Don't get me wrong, I'll still vote, just like lots of people I know, but I'm genuinely disappointed it's looking like a tide of red once again. Lesser of two evils, perhaps, but like ... man, we can do better ... :(

    Thing is, people are set in their voting patterns, and the mindset that only the CPC or LPC can form a government becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. The alt-right and neo-nazis figured that out; they've given up on forming their own parties and hijacked the CPC, and benefit from a large voter base that just don't pay attention to the swastica flags and keep voting for them because it's what they always did, or because the Liberals are in and it's time to change. On the other hand, by abandoning the Liberal party for the NDP and Greens, the left has basically ceded that party to the centre-right.

    Can we do better? Yes. By taking back the Liberal party. By running left-wing people as Liberal MPs, becoming ministers, and eventually PM. Not by shutting ourselves out of government and into third parties, but by taking over the LPC and bringing it where we are and where we want it to be.

    sig.gif
    Gnome-InterruptusZibblsnrtCanadianWolverine
  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    Richy wrote: »
    338 numbers sure are making me feel pointless about Nova Scotia. Don't get me wrong, I'll still vote, just like lots of people I know, but I'm genuinely disappointed it's looking like a tide of red once again. Lesser of two evils, perhaps, but like ... man, we can do better ... :(

    Thing is, people are set in their voting patterns, and the mindset that only the CPC or LPC can form a government becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. The alt-right and neo-nazis figured that out; they've given up on forming their own parties and hijacked the CPC, and benefit from a large voter base that just don't pay attention to the swastica flags and keep voting for them because it's what they always did, or because the Liberals are in and it's time to change. On the other hand, by abandoning the Liberal party for the NDP and Greens, the left has basically ceded that party to the centre-right.

    Can we do better? Yes. By taking back the Liberal party. By running left-wing people as Liberal MPs, becoming ministers, and eventually PM. Not by shutting ourselves out of government and into third parties, but by taking over the LPC and bringing it where we are and where we want it to be.

    Harper is basically the biggest example of how this kind of unthinking voting for a major party works. His entire play for power was to maintain rigid message discipline so that huge chunks of the country never noticed what kind of right-wing extremist he was.

    Gnome-InterruptusmrondeauTubularLuggageZibblsnrtRichyAl_watEl MuchoShadowhopeCanadianWolverine
  • CorvusCorvus . VancouverRegistered User regular
    Shadowen wrote: »
    Disco11 wrote: »
    Steelhawk wrote: »
    Ok. Despite not liking the Bloc and what they stand for... their leaders have all been pretty baller...


    Yeah that's great.

    He defiantly has the snark down.

    Also, I try not to judge people's appearances (well, things they can't help, anyway) while making political comments about them anymore, but fuck me if that doesn't look like exactly the type of guy you'd expect to ask about western separatism.

    It's the Rebel, a white supremacist propaganda outlet, so yeah.

    :so_raven:
    ZibblsnrtRichyAegisBouwsT
  • TubularLuggageTubularLuggage Registered User regular
    edited October 9
    338 numbers sure are making me feel pointless about Nova Scotia. Don't get me wrong, I'll still vote, just like lots of people I know, but I'm genuinely disappointed it's looking like a tide of red once again. Lesser of two evils, perhaps, but like ... man, we can do better ... :(

    There are a couple ridings where I feel like the NDP will be at least competitive (Halifax and Sackville-Preston-Chezzetcook).
    As well, the Liberal candidate in Cumberland-Colchester is from the provincial NDP, and just running as a Liberal because it's traditionally a pretty conservative riding, and while the riding has shown they're willing to not vote CPC, NDP may be too big of a jump at this time. She definitely seems to be a progressive, while realizing that outside of her provincial riding boundary, there are going to be a lot of people looking at the party name first and foremost.

    TubularLuggage on
    ArcticLancerZibblsnrtShadowhopeCanadianWolverine
  • ZibblsnrtZibblsnrt Registered User regular
    Just going by the signage amounts I'm pretty sure the Liberal incumbent is going to carry my riding. That said, he's pretty actively engaged with the riding both during and outside of election season to an extent that he actually feels representative-y, so I'm cool with that.

    The Conservative candidate might not actually exist? I think there are just a bunch of blue signs declaring support for someone I've never seen or heard in the neighborhood.

    (I wish I could say that about the PPC candidate..)

    TubularLuggageGnome-InterruptusCanadianWolverine
  • Edith_Bagot-DixEdith_Bagot-Dix Registered User regular
    338 numbers sure are making me feel pointless about Nova Scotia. Don't get me wrong, I'll still vote, just like lots of people I know, but I'm genuinely disappointed it's looking like a tide of red once again. Lesser of two evils, perhaps, but like ... man, we can do better ... :(

    There are a couple ridings where I feel like the NDP will be at least competitive (Halifax and Sackville-Preston-Chezzetcook).
    As well, the Liberal candidate in Cumberland-Colchester is from the provincial NDP, and just running as a Liberal because it's traditionally a pretty conservative riding, and while the riding has shown they're willing to not vote CPC, NDP may be too big of a jump at this time. She definitely seems to be a progressive, while realizing that outside of her provincial riding boundary, there are going to be a lot of people looking at the party name first and foremost.

    This is an understatement. The only time since 1968 that Cumberland-Colchester has not been represented by either a PC or Conservative candidate was during 1993 collapse of the PC party, or when Bill Casey is not choosing to sit as a Tory. MY guess would be that Scott Armstrong gets it this time.



    Also on Steam and PSN: twobadcats
  • RichyRichy Registered User regular
    Anyone planning on watching the French debate tonight?

    I'm not sure I've got it in me to watch a third debate.

    sig.gif
  • RichyRichy Registered User regular
    I caved and watched.

    Turned in to see Trudeau being lobbed two easy questions, and missing them both completely.

    sig.gif
  • themightypuckthemightypuck MontanaRegistered User regular
    Trudeau is lucky in that what else is there. My mom is an old school NDP supporter and she's at wits end. I live in the USA and pretty much hate them all and now she's with me. Still, I told her to vote tactically which means for the Liberals. I honestly think that if the Conservatives had a non joke leader this would be over.

    “Reject your sense of injury and the injury itself disappears.”
    ― Marcus Aurelius

    Path of Exile: themightypuck
    Richy
  • RichyRichy Registered User regular
    They just had a segment where a journalist asked a short-answer question to each candidate one-on-one, with no response from the others.

    Trudeau's question was why we should trust his environmental promises when he bought a pipeline and gave oil companies financial aid. May's question was whether she was in favour of shrinking the Canadian economy to reach her environmental targets. Blanchet and Singh's were about contradictions between their past and present positions, and Scheer's was about whether his promise to take global action against climate change meant he'd do nothing in Canada. But my favourite was Bernier's question, which was about his position rejecting the scientific concensus on climate change, and it was literally "why do you reject science?"

    Blimey they were good questions. It's too bad most of them got away with platitude answers

    sig.gif
    CanadianWolverine
  • EtiowsaEtiowsa Registered User regular
    If we end up in minority territory, which is likely at this point, I really hope we get some actual movement on electoral reform. I'm pretty confident the NDP have way more support than is reflected in the polls, because people are afraid to vote for them and get conservatives. If we had ranked ballot they'd probably gain 10% at least.

    RichyCanadianWolverine
  • RichyRichy Registered User regular
    Question about the deficit. Blanchet is the only one to answer "Deficit sucks, but we can't eliminate it overnight, the impact on the national economy would be disastrous. Our platform cuts it in half over four years. It's not great, but it's the best we can do."

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  • RichyRichy Registered User regular
    Scheer is lying through his teeth, and when Trudeau rectifies things Scheer point-blank calls him a liar. This is sickening.

    sig.gif
    CanadianWolverine
  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    edited October 11
    Etiowsa wrote: »
    If we end up in minority territory, which is likely at this point, I really hope we get some actual movement on electoral reform. I'm pretty confident the NDP have way more support than is reflected in the polls, because people are afraid to vote for them and get conservatives. If we had ranked ballot they'd probably gain 10% at least.

    Nah. They fought ranked ballots for a reason. Ranked Ballots mean Liberals dominate federal politics because they would be a ton of people's second choice. Both from the NDP and the Cons. And the Greens too probably, although maybe 3rd there. Ranked ballots mean every race where the NDP and the Liberals are cock-blocking each other now goes Liberal. Ranked ballot probably kills the NDP's chances of ever being anything but what they were pre- and looking like post-Layton: a distant 3rd minor party.

    The NDP wanted a proportional system because that's the kind of system that enhances the power of minority parties.

    shryke on
    CanadianWolverine
  • RichyRichy Registered User regular
    Blanchet is seriously owning this debate.

    sig.gif
  • RichyRichy Registered User regular
    And now a question to Trudeau about how he's blocking the $40,000 per child payment to victims of residential schools.

    sig.gif
    CanadianWolverine
  • HandkorHandkor Registered User regular
    Again thanks for the suffering Richy, you're probably not far from me, where do I deliver something from the SAQ.

    Ed GrubermanArcticLancerRichyGnome-Interruptus
  • CorporateGoonCorporateGoon Registered User regular
    Richy wrote: »
    And now a question to Trudeau about how he's blocking the $40,000 per child payment to victims of residential schools.

    It's not a residential schools thing, it's for anyone who was taken by child services between 2006 and 2017ish

  • MortiousMortious The Nightmare Begins Move to New ZealandRegistered User regular
    edited October 11
    Richy wrote: »
    And now a question to Trudeau about how he's blocking the $40,000 per child payment to victims of residential schools.

    Residential schools are those native population re-education thingies in this context right? Any link on what's going on with those that I can read? I'm quite interested in how each country deals with their history (and not so history) with those.

    Mortious on
    Move to New Zealand
    It’s not a very important country most of the time
    http://steamcommunity.com/id/mortious
  • MuzzmuzzMuzzmuzz Registered User regular
    It was weird listening to the Australian version of CBC radio praising us for how we were reconciling with our Native population, and the programs we had available. Like, do you even know how bad we are at this?

    ShadowenGnome-InterruptusCanadianWolverine
  • quovadis13quovadis13 Registered User regular
    Muzzmuzz wrote: »
    It was weird listening to the Australian version of CBC radio praising us for how we were reconciling with our Native population, and the programs we had available. Like, do you even know how bad we are at this?

    I think that just goes to show how bad everyone else is at it. Doing barely anything useful at all is still far and away better than the nothing most everyone else does

    ShadowenTubularLuggageRichyCaedwyrSteelhawk
  • DeciusDecius Registered User regular
    Trudeau is a wet noodle in a long line of wet noodle Liberal leaders. I'm voting along party lines, but I wouldn't be hurt if they had a leadership race. It would be political suicide, but it wouldn't be a bad thing.

    camo_sig2.png
    I never finish anyth
  • RichyRichy Registered User regular
    Handkor wrote: »
    Again thanks for the suffering Richy, you're probably not far from me, where do I deliver something from the SAQ.

    To be honest, I only watched half of it. The format was a lot better than the English debate, making them debate three at a time helped a lot. And the moderator was better at keeping them on topic and enforcing turn order ad well (but not as good as the one in the TVA debate). But in the end we've heard all these canned answers and elevator pitches twice already, there was nothing new.

    Then my girlfriend came downstairs and reminded me we had to chop vegetables and marinate meat for dinner tomorrow, and that was it for the debate.

    sig.gif
    CanadianWolverine
  • RichyRichy Registered User regular
    I'm watching the rest of the debate in the background while I work. May screaming to Scheer and Blanchet "Stop fighting with each other! I have the right to talk as well!" may well be the highlight of the evening.

    sig.gif
    finnith
  • LordSolarMachariusLordSolarMacharius Red wine with fish Registered User regular
    shryke wrote: »
    Etiowsa wrote: »
    If we end up in minority territory, which is likely at this point, I really hope we get some actual movement on electoral reform. I'm pretty confident the NDP have way more support than is reflected in the polls, because people are afraid to vote for them and get conservatives. If we had ranked ballot they'd probably gain 10% at least.

    Nah. They fought ranked ballots for a reason. Ranked Ballots mean Liberals dominate federal politics because they would be a ton of people's second choice. Both from the NDP and the Cons. And the Greens too probably, although maybe 3rd there. Ranked ballots mean every race where the NDP and the Liberals are cock-blocking each other now goes Liberal. Ranked ballot probably kills the NDP's chances of ever being anything but what they were pre- and looking like post-Layton: a distant 3rd minor party.

    The NDP wanted a proportional system because that's the kind of system that enhances the power of minority parties.

    As someone who's supportive of the NDP, I'd rather every race where the NDP and the Liberals are cock-blocking each other go Liberal than Conservative. But ultimately, I don't think a ranked ballot would result in some sort of permanent Liberal Hegemony, which I know many fear/want. I think it would free the leftist vote from "strategic" casts, and still result in swings from election to election. Just now, the NDP would benefit from the Liberals ebbing instead of the Conservatives.

    Canadians will get mad and "vote the bums out" every once in awhile, and it might greatly help the NDP if hold-out Liberal voters could put them as number 2. Like in last year's Ontario election, where my riding (traditionally Conservative, but steadily changing to Liberal) went 40% PC, 29% NDP, 24% Lib. Compared to the previous election, only 3 percent of the Liberal vote moved to the Cons, with 14 going to the NDP and under 1 to the Greens. There's no guarantee that under a ranked ballot enough of those Liberal die-hards would put the NDP at number two, but... there's a realistic shot that they could have won this seat under a ranked ballot.

    In any election there would be a small but not insignificant number of people that would go from reliably-Liberal to NDP-1/LPC-2. Whereas, while many NDP faithful would favour the Liberals as a second or third choice, I don't see a lot switching them to number one. So a ranked ballot would likely see a general increase in NDP support, at no risk of loss of seats. It would still be good for the NDP (just not as consistently good as MMP). I also don't think it would forever relegate them to minor party status any more than an MMP system would. Yes, they'd have to rely on weird elections like Ontario-2018 to get any control, but... they would also need that under MMP, wouldn't they? I think MMP just results in the NDP being permanent king makers, which has it's own positives and negatives.

    Ultimately, the Cons (despite using a ranked ballot for party votes) will never be down for anything but FPTP federally. The Liberals are down for a ranked ballot; I really think the NDP should go for it.

    T-boltGnome-InterruptusCaedwyrCanadianWolverineShadowhopeApogee
  • RichyRichy Registered User regular
    And I'm done. Nothing really interesting happened in this third debate.

    IMO, the best one is still the first French debate on TVA. Most interesting, most active, best questions and format. I think Scheer refusing several times to answer a question on abortion in that debate was the downward turning point of the campaign for the CPC.

    sig.gif
  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    shryke wrote: »
    Etiowsa wrote: »
    If we end up in minority territory, which is likely at this point, I really hope we get some actual movement on electoral reform. I'm pretty confident the NDP have way more support than is reflected in the polls, because people are afraid to vote for them and get conservatives. If we had ranked ballot they'd probably gain 10% at least.

    Nah. They fought ranked ballots for a reason. Ranked Ballots mean Liberals dominate federal politics because they would be a ton of people's second choice. Both from the NDP and the Cons. And the Greens too probably, although maybe 3rd there. Ranked ballots mean every race where the NDP and the Liberals are cock-blocking each other now goes Liberal. Ranked ballot probably kills the NDP's chances of ever being anything but what they were pre- and looking like post-Layton: a distant 3rd minor party.

    The NDP wanted a proportional system because that's the kind of system that enhances the power of minority parties.

    As someone who's supportive of the NDP, I'd rather every race where the NDP and the Liberals are cock-blocking each other go Liberal than Conservative. But ultimately, I don't think a ranked ballot would result in some sort of permanent Liberal Hegemony, which I know many fear/want. I think it would free the leftist vote from "strategic" casts, and still result in swings from election to election. Just now, the NDP would benefit from the Liberals ebbing instead of the Conservatives.

    Canadians will get mad and "vote the bums out" every once in awhile, and it might greatly help the NDP if hold-out Liberal voters could put them as number 2. Like in last year's Ontario election, where my riding (traditionally Conservative, but steadily changing to Liberal) went 40% PC, 29% NDP, 24% Lib. Compared to the previous election, only 3 percent of the Liberal vote moved to the Cons, with 14 going to the NDP and under 1 to the Greens. There's no guarantee that under a ranked ballot enough of those Liberal die-hards would put the NDP at number two, but... there's a realistic shot that they could have won this seat under a ranked ballot.

    In any election there would be a small but not insignificant number of people that would go from reliably-Liberal to NDP-1/LPC-2. Whereas, while many NDP faithful would favour the Liberals as a second or third choice, I don't see a lot switching them to number one. So a ranked ballot would likely see a general increase in NDP support, at no risk of loss of seats. It would still be good for the NDP (just not as consistently good as MMP). I also don't think it would forever relegate them to minor party status any more than an MMP system would. Yes, they'd have to rely on weird elections like Ontario-2018 to get any control, but... they would also need that under MMP, wouldn't they? I think MMP just results in the NDP being permanent king makers, which has it's own positives and negatives.

    Ultimately, the Cons (despite using a ranked ballot for party votes) will never be down for anything but FPTP federally. The Liberals are down for a ranked ballot; I really think the NDP should go for it.

    I agree with your last sentence. But what I'm talking about above is why they won't. They want proportional representation because that lets them be kingmakers. Under their own assumption they can't actually build a majority in most cases, the ranked ballots the Liberals want mostly just leads to more liberal seats.

    LordSolarMacharius
  • BroloBrolo Broseidon Lord of the BroceanRegistered User regular
    338 canada is currently projecting a popular vote / electoral riding split

    X1zx0tdl.jpg
    feBrDObl.jpg
    http://338canada.com/

    which if it happens, makes me wonder if the Cons won't be more receptive to electoral reform

    CanadianWolverine
  • RichyRichy Registered User regular
    Questions to the leaders after the debate. Rebel News somehow got in, and is questioning Trudeau about sexual activities at that school he worked on. Trudeau is actually answering instead of laughing them away.

    Apparently, according to Rebel News, the fact Trudeau had good teacher evaluations is suspicious. That this is given serious consideration in the press is insulting.

    sig.gif
    CanadianWolverineShadowhope
  • RichyRichy Registered User regular
    That's a massive drop on 338 over the past two days. The debate can't possibly have had that much impact. What's happening here?

    sig.gif
  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    Who knows. I'm not sure Canadian polling is even good enough to be analysed the way they are trying to do.

    AegisArcticLancerGnome-InterruptusFencingsaxAridholCanadianWolverineShadowenShadowhopeLordSolarMacharius
  • RichyRichy Registered User regular
    edited October 11
    shryke wrote: »
    Who knows. I'm not sure Canadian polling is even good enough to be analysed the way they are trying to do.

    Probably. I'm looking at the source surveys they're averaging. There's a new one by Forum that puts the CPC at +7, which may explain this dip, but it looks like an outlier. The other 5 surveys these past two days cover everything from Con +5 to tie to Lib +4. They're all over the place here.

    EDIT:
    Looking at the surveys in 2015, the three polls that were closest before the election were Forum, Nanos, and Ipsos. Right now they are Con+7, Lib+4, and Lib+1 respectively. So based on our best results of 2015, this year we're heading for a Con government, a Lib government, or a tie. Good, good.

    Richy on
    sig.gif
  • CorporateGoonCorporateGoon Registered User regular
    Richy wrote: »
    shryke wrote: »
    Who knows. I'm not sure Canadian polling is even good enough to be analysed the way they are trying to do.

    Probably. I'm looking at the source surveys they're averaging. There's a new one by Forum that puts the CPC at +7, which may explain this dip, but it looks like an outlier. The other 5 surveys these past two days cover everything from Con +5 to tie to Lib +4. They're all over the place here.

    EDIT:
    Looking at the surveys in 2015, the three polls that were closest before the election were Forum, Nanos, and Ipsos. Right now they are Con+7, Lib+4, and Lib+1 respectively. So based on our best results of 2015, this year we're heading for a Con government, a Lib government, or a tie. Good, good.

    Forum has been tending to skew pretty heavily towards the CPC over the past couple years compared to other polls, sometimes showing them up by 15 points when every other poll had the CPC and LPC within 3 points of each other.

    CanadianWolverine
  • vsovevsove ....also yes. Registered User regular
    Yeah, that Forum poll seems to be skewing everything. I think we're still on our way to a Liberal minority, but who knows. This election has been a bit of a race to the bottom from both Scheer and Trudeau.

    WATCH THIS SPACE.
  • RichyRichy Registered User regular
    Watching the post-debate question period. One journalist introduced herself to Singh before asking her question and said 'hi'. Singh instinctively waved at her. That made me chuckle. It was really adorable. So natural and genuine.

    I wish Singh (or Blanchet, for that matter) was the leader of the LPC. They'd both make great PMs.

    sig.gif
    CanadianWolverine
  • RichyRichy Registered User regular
    edited October 11
    Singh refusing to answer questions from RNN. Good. I just realized too they did not ask anything to Blanchet.

    I wish Trudeau had ignored them as well.

    EDIT:
    May also answering RNN's nonsensical questions, about Khadr.

    Richy on
    sig.gif
    CanadianWolverine
  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    Richy wrote: »
    Singh refusing to answer questions from RNN. Good. I just realized too they did not ask anything to Blanchet.

    I wish Trudeau had ignored them as well.

    Probably because Blanchet refused to talk to them last time they asked him a question.

    RichyAegis
  • RichyRichy Registered User regular
    I'm torn... On the one hand, Bernier is a racist asshole and I want him to lose to discredit all he stands for. But since Scheer said Bernier will lose in the last debate and the CPC candidate is tied with Bernier, I want Bernier to win to shut Scheer up and make him lose a seat.

    sig.gif
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