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[Canadian Politics] Takin' out the trash to replace it with... whoops.

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  • vsovevsove ....also yes. Registered User regular
    Weirdly, Liberal chances have gone up on CBC and down on 338.

    Trudeau is the wrong leader for the party. I think it’s pretty obvious at this point. But short of an electoral defeat I doubt he goes anywhere.

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  • HardtargetHardtarget There Are Four Lights VancouverRegistered User regular
    Trudeau was never ever going to get majority and the debates have nothing to do with it. Just prey for not conservative minority which is how things were heading earlier this year.

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  • ZibblsnrtZibblsnrt Registered User regular
    Singh just publicly committed to a coalition with whichever parties are necessary to keep a Scheer plurality from forming a government to which I can only say "yes I'd like more talk like this from the left and center please."

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  • HandkorHandkor Registered User regular
    edited October 2019
    I hate to say this but just before election day a lot of people will look at the polls and see the possibility of a Conservative Minority and are going to do like last election and switch back to Liberal just to be safe. I fear Quebec has been lost to the Bloc though and nothing will swing that back.

    Now Scheer might also feel emboldened in the next week and go put his foot in his mouth not realizing the Conservative support has not changed but the left is fracturing.

    Handkor on
  • CorporateGoonCorporateGoon Registered User regular
    Zibblsnrt wrote: »
    Singh just publicly committed to a coalition with whichever parties are necessary to keep a Scheer plurality from forming a government to which I can only say "yes I'd like more talk like this from the left and center please."

    Unfortunately, the way things are sitting right now, the Liberals and the NDP (and even the Greens) might not have enough seats between them to form a majority. With the BQ likely to vote for any non-confidence motion that comes up, it might not be possible to form a working government, no matter who wins the most seats. So, there's a good chance that we'll have another election before the end of next year.

  • vsovevsove ....also yes. Registered User regular
    The Liberals seem to be trending back upwards, but slowly. I doubt it is going to be significant, and we’ll see how it lasts, but I think they will see some retrenchment of support as the fear of a CPC government causes the left to vote LPC again.

    All that said, who actually knows what’s going to happen. I’ve never been less sure of an election.

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  • RichyRichy Registered User regular
    Zibblsnrt wrote: »
    Singh just publicly committed to a coalition with whichever parties are necessary to keep a Scheer plurality from forming a government to which I can only say "yes I'd like more talk like this from the left and center please."

    Unfortunately, the way things are sitting right now, the Liberals and the NDP (and even the Greens) might not have enough seats between them to form a majority. With the BQ likely to vote for any non-confidence motion that comes up, it might not be possible to form a working government, no matter who wins the most seats. So, there's a good chance that we'll have another election before the end of next year.

    Who said the Bloc will do that? Don't forget they backed the Liberal-NDP coalition last time, and they were alledgedly receptive to a coalition with Harper before that (though I doubt they'll repeat that mistake after how badly he backstabbed them afterwards).

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  • vsovevsove ....also yes. Registered User regular
    Yeah. If the Cons win a plurality but not a majority, I can absolutely see the other parties forming a coalition it the Liberals say yes.

    Not on every issue, but I think they all have more in common with each other than they do the Cons.

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  • TenekTenek Registered User regular
    Richy wrote: »
    Zibblsnrt wrote: »
    Singh just publicly committed to a coalition with whichever parties are necessary to keep a Scheer plurality from forming a government to which I can only say "yes I'd like more talk like this from the left and center please."

    Unfortunately, the way things are sitting right now, the Liberals and the NDP (and even the Greens) might not have enough seats between them to form a majority. With the BQ likely to vote for any non-confidence motion that comes up, it might not be possible to form a working government, no matter who wins the most seats. So, there's a good chance that we'll have another election before the end of next year.

    Who said the Bloc will do that? Don't forget they backed the Liberal-NDP coalition last time, and they were alledgedly receptive to a coalition with Harper before that (though I doubt they'll repeat that mistake after how badly he backstabbed them afterwards).

    Depends a great deal on the seat counts. Assuming there's no majority or razor's-edge (where independents or Greens make a difference), either the NDP or Bloc could get shut out entirely (if they don't provide enough seats to get to a majority with the Liberals but the other party does)... or they could end up fighting with each other (if either one is enough to get to 170) or ganging up on Trudeau (if they're both needed).

  • vsovevsove ....also yes. Registered User regular
    Tenek wrote: »
    Richy wrote: »
    Zibblsnrt wrote: »
    Singh just publicly committed to a coalition with whichever parties are necessary to keep a Scheer plurality from forming a government to which I can only say "yes I'd like more talk like this from the left and center please."

    Unfortunately, the way things are sitting right now, the Liberals and the NDP (and even the Greens) might not have enough seats between them to form a majority. With the BQ likely to vote for any non-confidence motion that comes up, it might not be possible to form a working government, no matter who wins the most seats. So, there's a good chance that we'll have another election before the end of next year.

    Who said the Bloc will do that? Don't forget they backed the Liberal-NDP coalition last time, and they were alledgedly receptive to a coalition with Harper before that (though I doubt they'll repeat that mistake after how badly he backstabbed them afterwards).

    Depends a great deal on the seat counts. Assuming there's no majority or razor's-edge (where independents or Greens make a difference), either the NDP or Bloc could get shut out entirely (if they don't provide enough seats to get to a majority with the Liberals but the other party does)... or they could end up fighting with each other (if either one is enough to get to 170) or ganging up on Trudeau (if they're both needed).

    Honestly, after the last four years, I’d rather a minority liberal with buy in from the Greens and NDP than a liberal majority.

    The liberals tend back towards their baseline of corporatism if left to their own devices.

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  • CorporateGoonCorporateGoon Registered User regular
    Richy wrote: »
    Zibblsnrt wrote: »
    Singh just publicly committed to a coalition with whichever parties are necessary to keep a Scheer plurality from forming a government to which I can only say "yes I'd like more talk like this from the left and center please."

    Unfortunately, the way things are sitting right now, the Liberals and the NDP (and even the Greens) might not have enough seats between them to form a majority. With the BQ likely to vote for any non-confidence motion that comes up, it might not be possible to form a working government, no matter who wins the most seats. So, there's a good chance that we'll have another election before the end of next year.

    Who said the Bloc will do that? Don't forget they backed the Liberal-NDP coalition last time, and they were alledgedly receptive to a coalition with Harper before that (though I doubt they'll repeat that mistake after how badly he backstabbed them afterwards).

    The Bloc just generally votes against the Government more often than other opposition parties. It's kind of their thing. Plus, they'd probably be in a position to pick up seats in the event of a collapse in the Liberal vote (maybe it'll turn out that Trudeau punched a baby once in 1975), so I'd expect them to vote non-confidence against an LPC government if it ever came up... and it definitely would.

    As for a CPC government, well it would be unabashedly pro-oil, and the Bloc has a reasonably strong climate change policy, so I can't see them ever supporting the Tories.

  • GeddoeGeddoe Registered User regular
    I'm on record now. I am probably okay with Trudeau punching a baby at any point before 1976. After that I need to hear both sides

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  • SatanIsMyMotorSatanIsMyMotor Fuck Warren Ellis Registered User regular
    edited October 2019
    My best friend has been working the advance polls here in Fredericton and said he's shocked by the number of young voters he's seeing out this year. He also said that the Liberals have been right up the asses of the polling stations via their scrutineers, which he's never seen before.

    Finally, a coworker of mine got called by the Conservatives asking if they could count on her vote. When she said "no" the person on the phone told her she shouldn't bother voting then.

    SatanIsMyMotor on
  • RichyRichy Registered User regular
    My best friend has been working the advance polls here in Fredericton and said he's shocked by the number of young voters he's seeing out this year. He also said that the Liberals have been right up the asses of the polling stations via their scrutineers, which he's never seen before.

    Finally, a coworker of mine got called by the Conservatives asking if they could count on her vote. When she said "no" the person on the vote told her she shouldn't bother voting then.

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  • Caulk Bite 6Caulk Bite 6 One of the multitude of Dans infesting this place Registered User regular
    Finally, a coworker of mine got called by the Conservatives asking if they could count on her vote. When she said "no" the person on the vote told her she shouldn't bother voting then.

    I wonder if they thought that was discouraging and not, you know, incentive to vote against Conservative.

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  • Descendant XDescendant X Outpost 31Registered User regular
    I’d be calling Elections Canada about that.

    Garry: I know you gentlemen have been through a lot, but when you find the time, I'd rather not spend the rest of the winter TIED TO THIS FUCKING COUCH!
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  • TeriferinTeriferin Registered User regular
    I got my mail-in ballot today. I have to hide it in three envelopes.

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  • RichyRichy Registered User regular
    Teriferin wrote: »
    I got my mail-in ballot today. I have to hide it in three envelopes.

    Then the poll worker has to pick one envelope, open a different one to see if your ballot is in it, and if not decide to stick with his original choice or pick the remaining one.

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  • SatanIsMyMotorSatanIsMyMotor Fuck Warren Ellis Registered User regular
    Finally, a coworker of mine got called by the Conservatives asking if they could count on her vote. When she said "no" the person on the vote told her she shouldn't bother voting then.

    I wonder if they thought that was discouraging and not, you know, incentive to vote against Conservative.
    I’d be calling Elections Canada about that.

    They did. Don't worry.

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  • mrondeaumrondeau Montréal, CanadaRegistered User regular
    Richy wrote: »
    Teriferin wrote: »
    I got my mail-in ballot today. I have to hide it in three envelopes.

    Then the poll worker has to pick one envelope, open a different one to see if your ballot is in it, and if not decide to stick with his original choice or pick the remaining one.

    In the actual procedure, someone who already knows where your ballot is open an envelope that is guaranteed not to contain your ballot.

  • HardtargetHardtarget There Are Four Lights VancouverRegistered User regular
    Finally, a coworker of mine got called by the Conservatives asking if they could count on her vote. When she said "no" the person on the phone told her she shouldn't bother voting then.

    jeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeze

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  • NosfNosf Registered User regular
    Voted Sunday, only total whackadoo party on the ballot was the commies. Well, aside from CPC I guess. Why do they even bother?

  • Descendant XDescendant X Outpost 31Registered User regular
    I’d vote for the commies before I ever voted CPC.

    Garry: I know you gentlemen have been through a lot, but when you find the time, I'd rather not spend the rest of the winter TIED TO THIS FUCKING COUCH!
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  • HardtargetHardtarget There Are Four Lights VancouverRegistered User regular
    we had libertarians on our ballet and i often wonder how many liberal votes they accidentaly steal

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  • El SkidEl Skid The frozen white northRegistered User regular
    Hardtarget wrote: »
    we had libertarians on our ballet and i often wonder how many liberal votes they accidentaly steal

    We need to start the Conservatarian Party of Canada to make things even!

    mrpaku wrote: »
    my name is precisionk and i'm ten tanks

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  • vsovevsove ....also yes. Registered User regular
    Another poll, this one by Ipsos.

    30 LPC/32 CPC, but apparently the 'should this party form the next government' for the Liberals is close to 38%, which is supposedly more closely correlated with election day than the raw 'who will you vote for' poll.

    We are definitely in a coin flip at this point, according to the polls. Chance of a majority remains very slim, but 11% for the Liberals and 6% for the Conservatives.

    Cannot wait 'til this election is over. I do not understand how Americans can do it with their excessively long elections.

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  • JragghenJragghen Registered User regular
    vsove wrote: »
    I do not understand how Americans can do it with their excessively long elections.

    Most of us don't, either.

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  • RichyRichy Registered User regular
    On my ballot, in addition to the six main parties, I only had one independent. It's a local guy who runs in every election, be it federal, provincial or municipal, and always uses the same signs with a massive wall of text and lots of quotes by famous people written in a font so small it's impossible to read from your car in the street right in front of it. I honestly don't know where he gets the money to plaster the city with his signs, or why he bothers. Or why he doesn't bother making legible signs.

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  • RichyRichy Registered User regular
    vsove wrote: »
    Another poll, this one by Ipsos.

    30 LPC/32 CPC, but apparently the 'should this party form the next government' for the Liberals is close to 38%, which is supposedly more closely correlated with election day than the raw 'who will you vote for' poll.

    We are definitely in a coin flip at this point, according to the polls. Chance of a majority remains very slim, but 11% for the Liberals and 6% for the Conservatives.

    Cannot wait 'til this election is over. I do not understand how Americans can do it with their excessively long elections.

    According to 338canada.com the Conservatives are now more likely to win the most seats, but the Liberals are more likely to win a majority of seats.

    Yeah, I love/hate this election.

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  • SatanIsMyMotorSatanIsMyMotor Fuck Warren Ellis Registered User regular
    We had a libertarian, a communist, and animal protection party on our ballots.

    I've seen the guy running as the libertarian speak before and he was a full on psycho.

  • Sir FabulousSir Fabulous Malevolent Squid God Registered User regular
    Advance voted NDP on Sunday. I’m pretty sure my riding won’t go blue unless something wacky happens. It’s a little hard to gauge because I live a minute away from the boundary line so sometimes I forget which lawn signs sit in which riding.

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  • DaimarDaimar A Million Feet Tall of Awesome Registered User regular
    I early voted on Saturday and after this election and the last provincial election where I did the same I can't imagine lining up on the official election day again.

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  • RichyRichy Registered User regular
    I guess I'll have to eat my words on the debates not mattering. You can literally see the LPC and CPC drop and the NDP and Bloc rise starting on the day after the debate took place.

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  • CanadianWolverineCanadianWolverine Registered User regular
    I am sure most of us here are familiar with how I like to talk about voting systems, well...

    Here's another potential bit of "Don't give me hope.":

    Numbers show 25% increase in advance voting over 2015: Elections Canada
    https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/advance-voting-1.5320275

    I really liked what was done this election, 4 days of advanced voting polls and on a holiday weekend? It was so relaxed and easy to fit voting into my schedule this time compared to previous times.

    I wish all election days were holidays.

    Really, on things like this and getting marijuana legal, Trudeau does deserve his praise. In this way he did listen and improve our vote, I am grateful for that, just wish he had pushed harder to still have electoral reform on his party's platform or got the job done of getting rid of FPTP while he had a majority, like specifically back IRV with a sunset clause referendum if that is their favourite.

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  • TenekTenek Registered User regular
    ... just wish he had pushed harder to still have electoral reform on his party's platform or got the job done of getting rid of FPTP while he had a majority, like specifically back IRV with a sunset clause referendum if that is their favourite.

    It's like Brexit. You have a majority in favor of some kind of change... but there's not enough solid support for any particular alternative to make it a winning issue.

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  • CanadianWolverineCanadianWolverine Registered User regular
    edited October 2019
    Tenek wrote: »
    ... just wish he had pushed harder to still have electoral reform on his party's platform or got the job done of getting rid of FPTP while he had a majority, like specifically back IRV with a sunset clause referendum if that is their favourite.

    It's like Brexit. You have a majority in favor of some kind of change... but there's not enough solid support for any particular alternative to make it a winning issue.

    That's why I think its wise that the NDP are backing a particular alternative (MMP) and wish other parties had done something similar for IRV and STV.

    CanadianWolverine on
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  • vsovevsove ....also yes. Registered User regular
    If you go by the median projections that CBC has up, Liberals plus NDP are exactly half the seats - meaning that a Lib/NDP/Green coalition would be a majority.

    Of course, that will change by tomorrow. But still.

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  • daveNYCdaveNYC Why universe hate Waspinator? Registered User regular
    Tenek wrote: »
    ... just wish he had pushed harder to still have electoral reform on his party's platform or got the job done of getting rid of FPTP while he had a majority, like specifically back IRV with a sunset clause referendum if that is their favourite.

    It's like Brexit. You have a majority in favor of some kind of change... but there's not enough solid support for any particular alternative to make it a winning issue.

    It’s also pretty close to a zero sum situation. There’s a general concern for not having your ideological opponents win, so the NDP and Liberals will have a common interest there, but someone’s gain in seats is going to be someone else’s loss. Tough to get around that.

    Shut up, Mr. Burton! You were not brought upon this world to get it!
  • AridholAridhol Daddliest Catch Registered User regular
    Honestly I just think Canadian polling is total shit.
    Just vote for the best people you think can stop the CPC in your riding.

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  • TenekTenek Registered User regular
    Tenek wrote: »
    ... just wish he had pushed harder to still have electoral reform on his party's platform or got the job done of getting rid of FPTP while he had a majority, like specifically back IRV with a sunset clause referendum if that is their favourite.

    It's like Brexit. You have a majority in favor of some kind of change... but there's not enough solid support for any particular alternative to make it a winning issue.

    That's why I think its wise that the NDP are backing a particular alternative (MMP) and wish other parties had done something similar for IRV and STV.

    Which cuts out some of the support from people who want reform but not MMP... and even if you still have majority support, it's not intense enough to persuade people to vote for that one issue (see: LDs backing Revoke).

This discussion has been closed.