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[Hiberno-Britannic Politics] My Better Brexit Deal Goes To Another School

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  • WotanAnubisWotanAnubis Registered User regular
    “For many companies, it’s not 50 days away, hard Brexit happens nine days from now,” Stephen Phipson, chief executive of the EEF manufacturing lobby group, said. “Those are the first ships that are going to land post-March 29 in southeast Asia. If products get loaded on the ships, exporters have no idea when they land whether they’ll be on a 20 percent tariff regime. Will they need rules of origins certificates?"

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-07/brexit-is-nine-days-away-for-exporters-sending-ships-to-asia


    fuck

    This is about trade with Asia. I wonder if, in this case, there'd be any real difference between soft Brexit or hard Brexit.

    Still, though. Brexit suddenly feels a whole lot closer.

  • Commander ZoomCommander Zoom Registered User regular
    It's not as if anything was going to really change, in 9 days or 50. It's too late to miss the iceberg.

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  • TryCatcherTryCatcher Registered User regular
    Have to ask, who the hell is Ken Livingstone?

  • RMS OceanicRMS Oceanic Registered User regular
    TryCatcher wrote: »
    Have to ask, who the hell is Ken Livingstone?

    Ex London Mayor and old Lefty Labourite. Was critical of Israel in that way that's pretty common.

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  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    “For many companies, it’s not 50 days away, hard Brexit happens nine days from now,” Stephen Phipson, chief executive of the EEF manufacturing lobby group, said. “Those are the first ships that are going to land post-March 29 in southeast Asia. If products get loaded on the ships, exporters have no idea when they land whether they’ll be on a 20 percent tariff regime. Will they need rules of origins certificates?"

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-07/brexit-is-nine-days-away-for-exporters-sending-ships-to-asia


    fuck

    This is about trade with Asia. I wonder if, in this case, there'd be any real difference between soft Brexit or hard Brexit.

    Still, though. Brexit suddenly feels a whole lot closer.

    It makes an enormous amount of difference. While the forms and tariffs will be similar in a brexit vs non brexit situation for exports, they all need to be applied accurately. A ship cannot say it is carrying goods from Europe if those goods are actually from the UK and so on.

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  • discriderdiscrider Registered User regular
    It's not as if anything was going to really change, in 9 days or 50. It's too late to miss the iceberg.

    I don't know; early consequences might spur the politicians into not crashing out entirely.
    Might be small comfort though, considering the consequences of crashing out are then happening...

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  • 101101 Registered User regular
    On the ships to Asia thing, is there no provision in international law to account for this sort of thing? E.g. a bit of leeway in the timing of trade rule changes for long distance ocean trade, or the rules as of the ship leaving port being the ones that apply?

  • DevoutlyApatheticDevoutlyApathetic Registered User regular
    101 wrote: »
    On the ships to Asia thing, is there no provision in international law to account for this sort of thing? E.g. a bit of leeway in the timing of trade rule changes for long distance ocean trade, or the rules as of the ship leaving port being the ones that apply?

    A competent and well managed transition would have how things like that would be resolved as part of the change and they would do it well beyond the departure date of any shipments involved. It is important to realize that Brexit, aside from generally being a bad idea, is also being spectacularly mismanaged.

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  • JazzJazz UKRegistered User regular
    edited February 11
    Surprising literally no-one, May has rejected Corbyn's offer.
    Theresa May has effectively ruled out Labour’s ideas for a compromise Brexit plan, shutting off another potential route to a deal as business groups warned that with less than 50 days to go the departure process was entering the “emergency zone”.

    The prime minister’s formal response to Jeremy Corbyn’s proposal, in a letter to the Labour leader, stressed her objections to keeping the UK in some form of customs union, saying this would prevent the UK making its own trade deals.

    But in an apparent renewed bid to win over wavering Labour MPs, May made a concession on environmental and workers’ rights, discounting Corbyn’s idea of automatic alignment with EU standards but suggesting instead a Commons vote every time these change.

    Reading that third paragraph, I can hear the eyes rolling in Brussels from all the way over here.

    Jazz on
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  • Commander ZoomCommander Zoom Registered User regular
    Such great deals you'll be able to get, once you're no longer part of the EU.
    Amazing deals, like this one.

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  • FencingsaxFencingsax It is difficult to get a man to understand, when his salary depends upon his not understanding GNU Terry PratchettRegistered User regular
    edited February 11
    Someone is going to staple THAT'S HOW IT WORKS NOW, YOU GODSDAMNED IDIOT to somebody else by the end of this

    Fencingsax on
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  • altidaltid Registered User regular
    So trade deals is today’s ‘must have’ for brexit then? Those trade deals that it has been made clear the U.K. will be given terrible terms and told to take it or leave it? But no, absolutely must keep the myth of the empire and commonwealth going. Surely they’ll be nice to us, right?!

    The trade deals stuff is such an obvious straw man. There is literally zero benefit possible and a clear negative. I expect Corbyn will happily point out how the EU has already secured favourable trade deals worldwide, ensured standards on goods and how as a member we benefit from these trade deals. Likewise how the EU continues to sign trade deals (e.g. with Japan) that we could never hope to match on our own, and how as a member we had a strong voice in deciding the terms of these deals. Surely Corbyn will point out the obvious benefits of EU membership rather than allowing government lies and empire based fiction to continue.

    Annny minute now.

    This is why the country is destined to failure and irrelevance. Pro EU sentiment remains taboo and relegated to the back benches despite the strength of the argument.

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  • BurnageBurnage Registered User regular
    David Davis is making the argument in The Times today that a 20% drop in the pound would really be an excellent thing, no, honestly, it'll make exports much easier and let's ignore that anyone might want to actually buy something with their money.

  • autono-wally, erotibot300autono-wally, erotibot300 love machine Registered User regular
    Burnage wrote: »
    David Davis is making the argument in The Times today that a 20% drop in the pound would really be an excellent thing, no, honestly, it'll make exports much easier and let's ignore that anyone might want to actually buy something with their money.

    Come on, it's not like Britain is on an island and needs to import many things

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  • BogartBogart Because I hate you Registered User, Moderator mod
    Including many of the bits and bobs that go into making things we export. He's a chimp, an utter bluffer and the living embodiment of the twat who's certain about everything and wrong at the same time.

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  • daveNYCdaveNYC Why universe hate Waspinator? Registered User regular
    The current UK trade deficit is £36.5 billion, that is net. There's a £137 billion deficit on goods and a surplus of £113 billion on services. Services that will probably take a hit with Brexit, and you can't eat services.

    There will be adequate food.

    ShadowhopeElldren
  • altidaltid Registered User regular
    I seem to recall that the boost to exports from the last major fall in the value of the pound was not as much as would be expected.

  • CroakerBCCroakerBC YorkRegistered User regular
    In more Brexit news, a cross-party bill to combine voting for May's deal with a second referendum has hit the starting blocks.

    It actually sounds like a reasonable idea, which I assume means it will be torpedoed immediately.

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  • ThirithThirith Registered User regular
    It does sound like a reasonable idea, but I suspect it'll be laughed off the table by the usual suspects. Seriously, if I ever meet anyone who says to me that a second referendum would be "disrespecting democracy", I consider myself fully within my rights to knee that person in the groin.

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  • BogartBogart Because I hate you Registered User, Moderator mod
    Reporter from Business Insider, talking about a Robert Peston story. Corbyn is as dead set against a second referendum as May.

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  • PLAPLA The process.Registered User regular
    Why would Corbyn want to endanger brexit?

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  • [Expletive deleted][Expletive deleted] The mediocre doctor NorwayRegistered User regular
    daveNYC wrote: »
    The current UK trade deficit is £36.5 billion, that is net. There's a £137 billion deficit on goods and a surplus of £113 billion on services. Services that will probably take a hit with Brexit, and you can't eat services.

    There will be adequate food.

    I suspect commonly held definitions of "food" will broaden in interesting ways in the promised post-Brexit wonderland.

    Leather, tree bark, pets, corpulent but not very feisty neighbours…

    And I'm sure some of this can be made into jam, too!

    Sic transit gloria mundi.
  • PLAPLA The process.Registered User regular
    Somehow the locals here in alco-town are either impressed by all the unicorns Britain is getting out of this, or don't think brexit will really make any difference. Including the ones who do business with the UK.

  • jothkijothki Registered User regular
    Burnage wrote: »
    David Davis is making the argument in The Times today that a 20% drop in the pound would really be an excellent thing, no, honestly, it'll make exports much easier and let's ignore that anyone might want to actually buy something with their money.

    It isn't like you'll be keeping it anyway once you beg the EU to take you back.

  • DhalphirDhalphir don't you open that trapdoor you're a fool if you dareRegistered User regular
    Literally every good reason to leave the EU espoused during the Leave campaign has turned out to be a complete lie or a massively exaggerated half-truth at best. I think suggesting the referendum was even legitimate is the disrespect to democracy, if there is any. It's not the will of the people when the people were deliberately and disgustingly misled and misinformed.

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  • DhalphirDhalphir don't you open that trapdoor you're a fool if you dareRegistered User regular
    edited February 11
    It's like holding a referendum on whether everyone in Britain should receive a puppy, and only after everyone votes yes is it revealed the puppy will actually be a ten foot tall statue of a puppy and you'll actually have to pay a hundred quid for yours and anyone who objects is told "the people voted for puppy statues, don't disrespect democracy"

    Dhalphir on
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  • ElldrenElldren Is a woman dammit I'm a good person yes it's trueRegistered User regular
    PLA wrote: »
    Why would Corbyn want to endanger brexit?

    I can only hope, that on a warm early summer night in 400 years, small children will go around for a collection to burn him in effigy

    kiloquid for the jezza?

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  • FencingsaxFencingsax It is difficult to get a man to understand, when his salary depends upon his not understanding GNU Terry PratchettRegistered User regular
    Elldren wrote: »
    PLA wrote: »
    Why would Corbyn want to endanger brexit?

    I can only hope, that on a warm early summer night in 400 years, small children will go around for a collection to burn him in effigy

    kiloquid for the jezza?

    Remember Remember the 29th of march doesn't have the same ring.

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  • BogartBogart Because I hate you Registered User, Moderator mod
    Dhalphir wrote: »
    Literally every good reason to leave the EU espoused during the Leave campaign has turned out to be a complete lie or a massively exaggerated half-truth at best. I think suggesting the referendum was even legitimate is the disrespect to democracy, if there is any. It's not the will of the people when the people were deliberately and disgustingly misled and misinformed.

    They absolutely were. But since all that has become relatively clear not many people have changed their minds. I suspect the vast majority of Leave voters don't care if it makes life better in any meaningful, practical way. It was about making immigrants unwelcome and sticking two fingers up to someone, anyone, in that ignorant, gammon faced loudmouth kind of way. You could explain in detail how jobs will be lost, life will be made worse and most leavers seem to remain unmoved.

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  • V1mV1m Registered User regular
    Burnage wrote: »
    David Davis is making the argument in The Times today that a 20% drop in the pound would really be an excellent thing, no, honestly, it'll make exports much easier and let's ignore that anyone might want to actually buy something with their money.

    Come on, it's not like Britain is on an island and needs to import many things

    Hundreds of thousands already unable to afford food? I know a great way to reduce that figure... eventually, anyway.

  • SolarSolar Registered User regular
    Which is why they should be ignored and we should Remain. They'll never be happy and Leaving won't make them become reasonable suddenly.

    The whole fiasco is an awfully silly thing to be doing.

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  • surrealitychecksurrealitycheck the search for the means to put an end to things an end to speech is what enables the discourse to continue ~ * ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) excelsior * ~Registered User regular
    altid wrote: »
    I seem to recall that the boost to exports from the last major fall in the value of the pound was not as much as would be expected.

    yes, very little effect

    broadly uk manufacturers either not that price sensitive (eg luxury goods where nobody gives a shit if the price of their object changes by 20%), very high in the value chain (and consequently importing their materials - thus their relative reduced price to the rest of the world is matched by increase in the cost of importing what they are working with) or extremely specialist (eg microsatellite manufacturers).

    in general high value-added manufacturing is more demand-constrained than price-constrained.

    another problem is of course that one way that uk export "capacity" might increase would be if investment appeared to build factories etc here. we might be able to think of examples of uk manufacturing capacity not being expanded in the very recent past... perhaps due to the associated uncertainty about our ability to export from a certain vote...

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  • DhalphirDhalphir don't you open that trapdoor you're a fool if you dareRegistered User regular
    edited February 11
    Solar wrote: »
    Which is why they should be ignored and we should Remain. They'll never be happy and Leaving won't make them become reasonable suddenly.

    The whole fiasco is an awfully silly thing to be doing.

    When someone has voted a certain way because of a belief they hold that something demonstrably impossible will happen, their vote is essentially irrelevant. They don't matter. You could round up every Leave voter and kick them off the island and not actually lose a single valuable member of society. So of what value is their opinion in a referendum?

    Dhalphir on
  • DhalphirDhalphir don't you open that trapdoor you're a fool if you dareRegistered User regular
    we might be able to think of examples of uk manufacturing capacity not being expanded in the very recent past... perhaps due to the associated uncertainty about our ability to export from a certain vote...

    The reduced value of the pound would possibly improve exports of the new Nissa...oh.

  • BogartBogart Because I hate you Registered User, Moderator mod
    Solar wrote: »
    Which is why they should be ignored and we should Remain. They'll never be happy and Leaving won't make them become reasonable suddenly.

    The whole fiasco is an awfully silly thing to be doing.

    Overturning a democratic referendum result that may have been unbinding but which was agreed to be respected by all the main political parties and which then was pushed through Parliament via a massive majority in favour of triggering Article 50 cannot just be 'ignored', much as doing so would make me happy.

    Thee are a few ways it could be challenged (via the illegality of the Leave campaigns, for instance) and a few ways it could be overturned (a second referendum, electing a government who campaigned on remaining) but no one with any power is currently pursuing any of them.

    Holding a referendum was a stupid idea that provided the wrong, stupid result which was then absolutely ballsed up royally by the worst, most stupid government we've had in fifty years while the stupid opposition did almost nothing to improve things. If any of this has swayed public opinion by fifteen or twenty points in favour of Remain you might have people in actual power pushing for a second referendum, but since people have largely not changed their minds we're ploughing on at full speed into the brick wall.

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  • ThirithThirith Registered User regular
    Dhalphir wrote: »
    When someone has voted a certain way because of a belief they hold that something demonstrably impossible will happen, their vote is essentially irrelevant. They don't matter. You could round up every Leave voter and kick them off the island and not actually lose a single valuable member of society. So of what value is their opinion in a referendum?
    As deplorable as I find this whole Brexit shitheap, I find that sort of statement difficult to take. I believe that many, if not most, Brexit voters are ignorant in one way or another - but ignorance does not make you entirely worthless as a valuable member of society, and you had an entire campaign that peddled in feeding that ignorance. I also believe that a fair number of Brexit voters are racists to some extent, but all of them? They don't matter, they don't have any social value whatsoever - that kind of rhetoric is pretty much indistinguishable from the worst examples of those on the other side of the argument.

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  • BogartBogart Because I hate you Registered User, Moderator mod
    Leave voters are affected by the laws of the country and governed by the same government so they get their vote same as everybody else. You don't get to put an IQ test on the voting franchise.

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  • PLAPLA The process.Registered User regular
    You don't need to have good ideas to be useful to society.

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  • fedaykin666fedaykin666 Registered User regular
    edited February 11
    Dhalphir wrote: »
    Solar wrote: »
    Which is why they should be ignored and we should Remain. They'll never be happy and Leaving won't make them become reasonable suddenly.

    The whole fiasco is an awfully silly thing to be doing.

    When someone has voted a certain way because of a belief they hold that something demonstrably impossible will happen, their vote is essentially irrelevant. They don't matter. You could round up every Leave voter and kick them off the island and not actually lose a single valuable member of society. So of what value is their opinion in a referendum?

    They are the people who are going to be hurt the most by Brexit.

    Look at Sunderland with Nissan reversing their investment plans ( and probably the whole future of the plant there isn't looking too bright either).

    The bad guys are the Conservative Politicians who started this for their own ambition with no regard for consequences, their corrupt wanker banker mates with dubious Russian money (Aaron Banks investigation) and the media machine they employ.

    The victims of the propaganda are not the right target for anger.

    fedaykin666 on
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  • BogartBogart Because I hate you Registered User, Moderator mod
    I dunno, I'm plenty mad at ignorant voters who constantly vote for nonsense on stilts or cheers on con men like Boris Johnson or racists like Farage. I'm more mad at knowing liars and the Tory press for propagating the sort of xenophobic miasma of bad feeling that fuelled Brexit, but I'm still mad at gammon faced scrotes who voted Leave.

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