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[Hiberno-Britannic Politics] Brace Brace Brace

BogartBogart Because I hate youRegistered User, Moderator mod
edited December 18 in Debate and/or Discourse
Credit for OP goes to RMS, I think. I dunno, it's been the same one for a while. So this archipelago

522px-Britain_and_Ireland_satellite_image_bright.png

Has these nations.

200px-Flag_of_the_United_Kingdom.svg.png200px-Flag_of_Ireland.svg.png

These nations are almost completely (not) unique in that they're run by a system known as Politics!

The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland

Run by these folk.

2016-07-13-1468405452-1079265-Theresa_May.jpg465px-Arlene_Foster_MLA.jpg

These folk would rather they didn't.

381px-Jeremy_Corbyn%2C_Tolpuddle_2016%2C_1_crop.jpg_50578759_jex_910384_de02-1.jpg
396px-Boris_Johnson_July_2015.jpg[img][/img]
gerry-adams-locked-out-752x501.jpg

The Issue



A spiffing place to keep up to date with the latest developments.

An Poblacht na hÉireann

I really need to start paying attention to the political situation down south, especially with that threatened and justified EU veto. It looked like there might be an election but now there isn't?

GeocitiesInConstruction.gif

A shockin' good place to see what the feck the craic is.

Blah blah blah Brexit Brexit Brexit.

Bogart on
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Posts

  • RMS OceanicRMS Oceanic Registered User regular
    *Walks away sharply after not being clear*

    SnicketysnickmysticjuicerJazzmonikerLoisLaneFryShadowenTNTrooper
  • Harry DresdenHarry Dresden Registered User regular
    The dark horse contender for the next GE, if it occurs, will be:



    Larry the Cat, Chief Mouser.

    Zilla360CroakerBCJazzElldrenTicaldfjamLoisLaneFryShadowenTNTrooper
  • RMS OceanicRMS Oceanic Registered User regular
    I will always vote for Lord Buckethead

    Zilla360Youtube
  • Bad-BeatBad-Beat Registered User regular
    Picking up the discussion from the last thread (what happens next), Politico Europe's London Playbook has summarised things quite nicely..

    LONDON PLAYBOOK: 5 days to go — What May does next
    ALL EYES ON MAY: The biggest question in Westminster right now is how the PM will respond if and when she loses the vote Tuesday night. Playbook had five conversations with well-places sources around the palace yesterday, and heard five different theories of what she’ll do next. (Which means nobody — including your Playbook author — has a clue.) Some theories, it’s fair to say, are more far-fetched than others. But in this brief period of calm before the next storm erupts, we can sit back and speculate about the PM’s next steps...

    1. Soldier on to Brussels [renegotiate]
    2. Resign
    3. Pivot [Norway Option]
    4. Call a second referendum
    5. Call a general election

    Their suggestion is that May takes Option 1, which does sound the most likely given May's history. Time and time again, rather than face up to reality, May has chosen to hide behind vague statements in order to postpone actual decisions. If Option 1 gives her that, she's done nothing to persuade me she won't try it. But then again, we appear to be moving through an unprecedented political situation in this country. You'd be a fool for thinking you know what to expect next.

    Note: London Playbook is a daily briefing which is always worth a read on your commute.

  • HenroidHenroid Radio Demon Internet HellRegistered User regular
    What the heck is the "Norway Option"? That's a new term to me (though I'm an outsider looking in on UK politics). I checked in the article but it didn't really clarify.

    Centrism is just the cowardly way to be a bigot w/o being explicit about it.
    American politics isn't 4D chess, it's just if you give a shit about other people or not.
  • KarlKarl Registered User regular
    We essentially move to a relationship that Norway has with the EU.

    AKA EU Lite.

    Or "Shit remain"

    YOU'RE ALL BABIES.
    SO MUCH POTENTIAL TO WASTE.
    Koshian wrote: »
    JOKE'S ON YOU
    MY POTENTIAL IS ALREADY WASTED
    FencingsaxshryketynicElldrenLoisLaneLiiyaTNTrooper
  • Bad-BeatBad-Beat Registered User regular
    edited December 6
    Here's a good run through of the Norway Option: The Journal: How 'Norway plus' could be a Brexit solution

    Summary of the points of the article:
    • Being out of the Commons Fishery Policy and the Common Agricultural Policy
    • Being in the Single Market and paying for it, which means accepting the four freedoms of the EU (goods, services, people, and capital)
    • Paying towards EU programmes: Horizon 2020, Erasmus+, Galileo and Copernicus (worth €447 million between 2014 – 2020)
    • Liaising on justice and borders, and pay towards that through a variety of projects.

    However, the UK would have no say in the rules and must adhere to the EU’s four freedoms: free movement of goods, capital, services and persons. This is probably the staunchest of May's red lines. Not only accepting the four freedoms, but being able to influence policy just seems impossible to navigate. Norway also isn't in the Customs Union which causes a problem for NI. So the UK would need to re-join the CU as well. This stifles our ability to forge our own trade deals. Another red line.

    The question with this model is that if you're already in the EU why would you want the Norway option? It's all the elements of EU membership the UK is unhappy with, without the benefits.

    Bad-Beat on
    mysticjuicer38thDoe
  • klemmingklemming Registered User regular
    Yeah, if there's support for the Norway option, they should just admit that they want to stay in and be done with it.

    Nobody remembers the singer. The song remains.
  • CroakerBCCroakerBC YorkRegistered User regular
    klemming wrote: »
    Yeah, if there's support for the Norway option, they should just admit that they want to stay in and be done with it.

    I think there's political (as in parliamentary) support for being able to say "We've left the EU" , but also not say "We've blown up the economy doing it".
    If you try and remain in the EU (which is obviously the option I'd prefer, and, I gather, the one preferred by the majority of parliamentarians), then there's a lot of awkwardness about not respecting democracy, will of the people, blah blah blah. It's tough to say that people didn't vote that way in 2016, or that they did and they were wrong. I can see the principled argument there too: in the face of a small democratic mandate, it's tricky to back out of.

    The Norway option has the virtue of allowing MP's cover to vote for it, whilst also being as close to Remain as you can get. They can say "Well, we are leaving the EU" - and for once, use the ambiguity of "what the people voted for" as an advantage to work around the mouth-frothers on the Tory right.

    Obviously, staying in the EU is materially the better choice, but it's a much, much harder sell politically, because of the godforsaken referendum we used to put ourselves in this position in the first place.

  • pezgenpezgen Registered User regular
    On the Brexit-supporting side, the advantage of the Norway option is that it can be framed as "Norway for now" - a stepping stone to a greater Brexit (you know, the one with the unicorns). I'm pretty sure this is the favoured option of the supposed intellectuals on that side of the debate, as it's an existing option that has a basis in reality, avoids the absolute crashing out of no-deal, and still fulfils the technical requirements of "leaving" the EU.

  • pezgenpezgen Registered User regular
    Can't believe we didn't have a vote for the new thread title.

    The mod-ropolitan elite subverting the will of the people again.

    V1mAnarchy Rules!shrykeJazzForaraltidLoisLaneShadowenTNTrooperNoughtMoridin889
  • RMS OceanicRMS Oceanic Registered User regular
    pezgen wrote: »
    Can't believe we didn't have a vote for the new thread title.

    The mod-ropolitan elite subverting the will of the people again.

    The people all went and gatecrashed UKIP and hurt Nigel's feelings.

  • Jam WarriorJam Warrior Registered User regular
    Isn't the problem with Norway(plus) that anything that retains freedom of movement probably still won't fly?

    It may be our least worst choice compared to cancelling the whole deal, but it seems one of those compromises that achieves equality by pleasing nobody.

    TingleSigBar.gif
    RMS Oceanic
  • daveNYCdaveNYC Why universe hate Waspinator? Registered User regular
    Isn't the problem with Norway(plus) that anything that retains freedom of movement probably still won't fly?

    It may be our least worst choice compared to cancelling the whole deal, but it seems one of those compromises that achieves equality by pleasing nobody.

    And anything that stops Freedom of Movement breaks Northern Ireland. Round and round we go.

  • japanjapan Registered User regular
    daveNYC wrote: »
    Isn't the problem with Norway(plus) that anything that retains freedom of movement probably still won't fly?

    It may be our least worst choice compared to cancelling the whole deal, but it seems one of those compromises that achieves equality by pleasing nobody.

    And anything that stops Freedom of Movement breaks Northern Ireland. Round and round we go.

    Freedom of movement isn't really the issue for NI. The Common Travel Area covers off the ability to traverse the NI/UK border even if it becomes a "hard" border.

    The NI issue is almost entirely a customs problem.

    Julius
  • CroakerBCCroakerBC YorkRegistered User regular
    edited December 6
    Isn't the problem with Norway(plus) that anything that retains freedom of movement probably still won't fly?

    It may be our least worst choice compared to cancelling the whole deal, but it seems one of those compromises that achieves equality by pleasing nobody.

    Looking around at the alternatives, it seems like none of the available options will fly, but N+ is the least likely to crash. Starting at the far end:
    • No deal - no chance, except inadvertently.
    • Canada+ - Very unlikely, largely because the EU won't see any reason to negotiate on the deal already in place or extend A50 to do so, leading back to No Deal. Nobody's going to let that one be what goes back to the EU. Also, still doesn't resolve the border issue with Ireland, which I'm sure the EU would love to open up again. Or not.
    • May's deal: Evidently not going to fly.
    • Norway+: - includes FoM, but aside from that, saves a lot of face; probably/maybe has a cross-parliamentary majority? Has no border issue with Ireland. Leads to massive media shitshow for a few months, then they go back to blaming the EU for everything like before
    • Remain via referendum - Maaaaybe, but massive logistical issues. Risk that people vote to No Deal on purpose, because people are idiots. Leads to massive media shitshow forever.
    • Remain via A50 revocation - No chance unless the other option is No Deal, a day or two before we set ourselves on fire. Even then I wouldn't place a bet.


    Basically, nothing is flying, which is why the while thing is such an enormous cluster. I reckon Norway+ is the one with the most chance of going in once the pressure really goes up, but..who knows.

    CroakerBC on
  • PLAPLA The process.Registered User regular
    "Canada+" is absurd by definition.

    CroakerBCmrondeauCommander ZoomElldrenmonikerYoutube
  • Captain InertiaCaptain Inertia Registered User regular
    Why did Norway agree to “Norway Classic” instead of joining the EU?

  • daveNYCdaveNYC Why universe hate Waspinator? Registered User regular
    Why did Norway agree to “Norway Classic” instead of joining the EU?

    The BBC article I read on the subject mentioned sovereignty. Which I can understand keeping one from joining the EU, but does nothing to explain the Norway deal.

  • BogartBogart Because I hate you Registered User, Moderator mod
    I was busy yesterday but I'm sure checking back I'll see that Jeremy Corbyn utterly eviscerated May at PMQs by holding those three government defeats over her head and thoroughly oh wait never mind he spent all six questions asking about something else.

    Latest poll still has him coming third in a two horse race to be the people's choice for the next PM.

    CasualmonikerLoisLaneFencingsaxYoutubeTNTrooperH3Knucklesfedaykin666Moridin889Nirya
  • Harry DresdenHarry Dresden Registered User regular
    Bogart wrote: »
    I was busy yesterday but I'm sure checking back I'll see that Jeremy Corbyn utterly eviscerated May at PMQs by holding those three government defeats over her head and thoroughly oh wait never mind he spent all six questions asking about something else.

    Latest poll still has him coming third in a two horse race to be the people's choice for the next PM.

    Hang on, he didn't ask one question about Brexit? What did he ask about?

    YoutubeH3Knuckles
  • surrealitychecksurrealitycheck the search for the means to put an end to things an end to speech is what enables the discourse to continue ~ * ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) excelsior * ~Registered User regular
    edited December 6
    if we switch to norway model we lose our rebate...

    which means it will almost certainly keep our net contribution to the eu the same (or possibly higher depending on what we opt into)

    lel

    surrealitycheck on
    obF2Wuw.png
    shrykeElldrenKayne Red RobeCasualLoisLaneShadowenH3KnucklesNoughtJuliusMoridin889
  • BethrynBethryn Registered User regular
    Hang on, he didn't ask one question about Brexit? What did he ask about?
    A lot more questions on Universal Credit (benefits).

  • ErlecErlec Registered User regular
    So in order to explain the "Norway" version of the EU membership, we have a short history lesson. Norway has in fact applied to be in the EU three times (62, 67 and 94). The first application got scrapped by De Gaulle due to him opposing British membership so Norways application got scrapped as well. The second one was voted on by the public and got 53 % no. The third one led to a big vote among the public also led to a no with 52 %. Both votes were mainly geographical split between the south counties voting yes and the rest voting no. The third vote was interesting due to being in the EEC at the time, giving the yes vote the argument: "We are already mostly in the EU but no ability to vote or decide. Why not just join?". In party lines there's a mix where center right tends to favor and left being against. There are still discussions from time to time about joining the EU, but it always get quagmired in a couple of places:

    1. Norway's market too weak to compete - There's a strong belief that if Norway ends up joining the EU, most of the primary sector (farming, OIL!, fishing) will lose a lot of money to cheaper European products. This of course means that due to Norway not joining, has higher food prices in comparison and has some big monopolies in the market.
    2. EU's market ideology - The unions in Norway are pretty strong and there's a strong sense from older left parties that if Norway joins, some of the benefits that the unions have will be lost.
    3. RAW RAW WE BE OWN BOSSES - Like all countries when nationalism comes into play, people get very conservative. "We have had it good so far, so let's keep this situation going" is a very strong belief to just status quo this shit.

    So the Norway being in the EEA (European Economic Area), the EFTA (which Swittzerland is the only other member) and in the Schengen agreement, here's what Norway has agreed to so far:
    • Follow whatever agreement, ISOs that the EU agrees to.
    • Be an observer during discussions of deals, but not have a vote.
    • Allow freedom of movement without passport checking as long as you come from one of the countries in the Schengen Agreement.
    • Ability to set up some tariffs if needed, but highly encouraged to not go crazy with it and focus on keeping free trade free.

    The reason it kinda works in Norway is due to Nordic Council giving us a very strong connection with other nordic countries which are in the EU. Having large amounts of Oil and state majority control of the company that drills it which gives Norway a sorta safe money reserve (Currently at around 8346 billion NOK if This site is correct. It has enough money to cushion whatever market blows it incurs due to not being in the EU.

    steam_sig.png
    [Expletive deleted]
  • pezgenpezgen Registered User regular
    Oh-ho-ho, looks like the ECJ (CJEU, whatever) is rushing through its verdict on the A50 case so that we get the ruling just before MPs vote on the deal:

    SporkAndrewPLAshrykeDark Raven XJazzCommander ZoomLoisLaneFencingsaxV1mShadowen101TNTrooperH3KnucklesNiryaLord_Asmodeus
  • PLAPLA The process.Registered User regular
    The EU masters bullying you with all these threats. Ghastly.

  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    pezgen wrote: »
    Oh-ho-ho, looks like the ECJ (CJEU, whatever) is rushing through its verdict on the A50 case so that we get the ruling just before MPs vote on the deal:


    Power move

  • BogartBogart Because I hate you Registered User, Moderator mod
    ITV correspondent. Not exactly Earth-shattering stuff, but resigning your own whip isn't something MPs do on a regular basis.

  • surrealitychecksurrealitycheck the search for the means to put an end to things an end to speech is what enables the discourse to continue ~ * ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) excelsior * ~Registered User regular
    eastbourne was a jillion% brexit

    its a super old decaying seaside town so hes sort of covering his booty

    obF2Wuw.png
  • Bad-BeatBad-Beat Registered User regular
    Oh, the Lib Dems still exist. I'd forgot.

  • daveNYCdaveNYC Why universe hate Waspinator? Registered User regular
    Bad-Beat wrote: »
    Oh, the Lib Dems still exist. I'd forgot.

    And they're not doing a great job as selling themselves here as the pro-Remain guys. Sure it's just one MP, but they only have twelve of them.

    Kayne Red RobeShadowenH3Knuckles
  • pezgenpezgen Registered User regular
    Even with only 12 MPs and a stated party goal of keeping the UK in the EU, the Lib Dems still manage to have internal divisions over Brexit. Is no party safe?

    I suppose the only thing keeping the Greens from fighting over it is that they've only got one MP.

    H3Knuckles
  • SolarSolar Registered User regular
    Voting for what they want rather than what they need. A betrayal of his own constituency to cover his seat, he should cast his vote based on what he believes is right and face the consequences at the ballot box.

    I'm sick of this spineless shit from MPs

    altidYoutubeShadowenpots+pansH3KnucklesMoridin889
  • PhillisherePhillishere Registered User regular
    edited December 6
    daveNYC wrote: »
    Bad-Beat wrote: »
    Oh, the Lib Dems still exist. I'd forgot.

    And they're not doing a great job as selling themselves here as the pro-Remain guys. Sure it's just one MP, but they only have twelve of them.

    Their main identity at this point seems to be the party that embraces a few single issues to show how unique they are, then betrays the public on those issues the moment they get in power. So, this pretty much is in-line with what the party is selling.

    Phillishere on
    Kayne Red Robepots+pansLiiyaH3Knuckles
  • kaidkaid Registered User regular
    pezgen wrote: »
    Even with only 12 MPs and a stated party goal of keeping the UK in the EU, the Lib Dems still manage to have internal divisions over Brexit. Is no party safe?

    I suppose the only thing keeping the Greens from fighting over it is that they've only got one MP.

    I do find it interesting that for a vote that nearly 50% of the population voted against there is no real coherent remain push that seems to be championed by any of the parties. Seems like maybe it is time for a new party to form if the will of almost half the population is silent.

  • BogartBogart Because I hate you Registered User, Moderator mod
    Launching a party on the back of ignoring a democratic vote is a tough sell, for good reasons. The most anyone seems prepared to do is plump for a second referendum, but, so far, Labour aren't after that because they'd rather have a general election which they think they can win. It's one of the most extraordinarily cynical judgements I've seen a political leader make. If they can't get a general election they might try for a second referendum.

    The Tories are mostly against it because it's mostly their voters who wanted to Leave, so they don't want to upset their supporters, even though the vast majority know how bad its going to be.

    monikerCommander Zoom
  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    I think it doesn't help that pro-Brexit sentiment cuts across both major parties' bases from what I remember.

  • BogartBogart Because I hate you Registered User, Moderator mod
    shryke wrote: »
    I think it doesn't help that pro-Brexit sentiment cuts across both major parties' bases from what I remember.

    A bit. Something like 70% of Tory voters and 30% of Labour voters. This is from a vague memory rather than me checking the figures just now.

    Solar
  • SolarSolar Registered User regular
    Brexit is not partisan but it also kind of is

    People say that Leavers would never vote for a party that went with a Remain policy and I think that's untrue. Frank Fields is the archetypical Labour Leave guy, do you think he'll ever vote Tory? He'd die first.

    tynicRhesus PositiveV1mShadowenH3Knuckles
  • japanjapan Registered User regular
    edited December 6
    Labour staked out their brexit position at a time when they thought their base was a lot more pro-leave than subsequently turned out to be the case.

    A big part of that is that it makes a material difference whether you're talking about Labour members, voters, supporters, or constituencies. As the polling has got more sophisticated the picture has gradually emerged that Labour voters are not as gung-ho as some within the party seem to have assumed. I also vaguely recall that Labour leave voters are the most likely to have swung to remain, to the extent that any group of leave voters have changed their mind.

    Edit: also their leader is a brexiteer

    japan on
    ElldrenCommander ZoomYoutubeShadowenH3Knuckles
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