US Government Shutdown 2018/2019 - read mod post on pg 23

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  • HiroconHirocon Registered User regular
    Do TSA workers get pensions? That's the worst part, in my mind. If anyone working towards a pension has to quit their job because of this shutdown then they've lost all that money they were working towards. I imagine even if a federal employee quit and got re-hired later after the government re-opens, it would reset the clock towards earning a pension.

    durandal4532
  • Styrofoam SammichStyrofoam Sammich WANT. 5386-8443-8937Registered User regular
    edited January 2019
    Hirocon wrote: »
    Do TSA workers get pensions? That's the worst part, in my mind. If anyone working towards a pension has to quit their job because of this shutdown then they've lost all that money they were working towards. I imagine even if a federal employee quit and got re-hired later after the government re-opens, it would reset the clock towards earning a pension.
    The answer is yes. All TSA full-time and part-time employees of the TSA contribute to either CSRS or FERS and are therefore eligible for a CSRS or FERS annuity when they retire from federal service.

    Decent benefits too.

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  • GaddezGaddez Registered User regular
    shryke wrote: »
    Trump folds all the time. And he clearly knows he's in a bad situation right now. It's just a question of how he decides to escape the trap he's built for himself.

    This is the part that's so amazing about this whole fiasco: the only reason that you are at this point is because trump made a last minute demand against all sense and logic combined with badly misjudging the conviction of nancy pelosi (who, even if this wasn't a pointless waste of money and a giant symbol of racism might very well have told him to pound sand out of sheer spite due to how little respect he and his party have shown her).

    This "emergency" only exists because he made it happen.

    Richy wrote: »
    But I think the resistance I’m getting more has to do with “rawr! Loklar said it! Rage!” than anything else.

    No, it has to do with the fact that you're done nothing but throw lies, blatant flasehoods, and downright dumb statements at us so far.
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  • mcdermottmcdermott Registered User regular
    Hirocon wrote: »
    Cog wrote: »
    Cog wrote: »
    The drop makes sense. His inability to get anything done here cuts into his own brand regardless of whether you want the wall or not and his unwillingness so far to just go the authoritarian route displeases authoritarians

    There's just a general tendency to blame the President for shutdowns, as well.

    I dont know about that

    https://cnn.com/2019/01/11/politics/shutdown-blame-polling/index.html

    Well, looks like you're probably right. This seems to suggest that historically the blame has most often simply been shouldered by Republicans.

    That's because Republicans are always the ones making demands and triggering the shutdown to get what they demand.

    True in general, though I seem to remember like once or twice it was the Democrats blocking a clean CR in an attempt to gain something? Was it DACA earlier this year? Of course that shutdown lasted a weekend, not a month.

    kime
  • djmitchelladjmitchella Registered User regular
    Cog wrote: »
    It doesn't help that it's also a thankless job where almost literally everyone you meet hates what you do.

    Except for other air traffic controllers: Canadian air traffic controllers send pizzas to U.S. counterparts working without pay
    Air traffic controllers from Atlantic Canada directed a fleet of special arrivals into the New York Air Traffic Control Centre on Friday night, as a gesture of solidarity and respect.

    And each was covered in a layer of gooey melted cheese.

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  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    Gaddez wrote: »
    shryke wrote: »
    Trump folds all the time. And he clearly knows he's in a bad situation right now. It's just a question of how he decides to escape the trap he's built for himself.

    This is the part that's so amazing about this whole fiasco: the only reason that you are at this point is because trump made a last minute demand against all sense and logic combined with badly misjudging the conviction of nancy pelosi (who, even if this wasn't a pointless waste of money and a giant symbol of racism might very well have told him to pound sand out of sheer spite due to how little respect he and his party have shown her).

    This "emergency" only exists because he made it happen.

    His last minute demand is because the right-wing media was hammering him for caving on the immigration issue. Calling him "Amnesty Don" and the like.

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  • HefflingHeffling No Pic EverRegistered User regular
    moniker wrote: »
    ironhead wrote: »
    Honestly we should abolish the TSA since they're a mostly useless organizaion. Let airports provide their own private security with minimum required standards.

    Why should I care that the person following Federal Guidelines has a different shirt and gets paid out of local sales tax when the problem I have is with the Federal Guidelines? If anything, making them all Feds to relieve the cost on airports was the one benefit of forming TSA. Making local governments foot the bill would solve the immediate problem of DHS not having appropriations, but the Federal Government should never be shutdown to begin with, so...

    I'm not sure I agree that the government should subsidize airports by providing security.

    If a movement doesn't have someone that can sit down opposite those in a position of power and strike a deal, how can that movement achieve success?
  • [Expletive deleted][Expletive deleted] The mediocre doctor NorwayRegistered User regular
    Cog wrote: »
    It doesn't help that it's also a thankless job where almost literally everyone you meet hates what you do.

    Except for other air traffic controllers: Canadian air traffic controllers send pizzas to U.S. counterparts working without pay
    Air traffic controllers from Atlantic Canada directed a fleet of special arrivals into the New York Air Traffic Control Centre on Friday night, as a gesture of solidarity and respect.

    And each was covered in a layer of gooey melted cheese.

    I don't think anybody dislikes air traffic controllers.

    Cog's talking about airport security, who are universally loathed.

    Sic transit gloria mundi.
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  • Styrofoam SammichStyrofoam Sammich WANT. 5386-8443-8937Registered User regular
    Heffling wrote: »
    moniker wrote: »
    ironhead wrote: »
    Honestly we should abolish the TSA since they're a mostly useless organizaion. Let airports provide their own private security with minimum required standards.

    Why should I care that the person following Federal Guidelines has a different shirt and gets paid out of local sales tax when the problem I have is with the Federal Guidelines? If anything, making them all Feds to relieve the cost on airports was the one benefit of forming TSA. Making local governments foot the bill would solve the immediate problem of DHS not having appropriations, but the Federal Government should never be shutdown to begin with, so...

    I'm not sure I agree that the government should subsidize airports by providing security.

    I agree, they should be nationalized.

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  • GaddezGaddez Registered User regular
    moniker wrote: »
    As a reminder, the Judiciary runs out of money on Friday.

    This is going to get so much more stupid before it gets better.

    I'm curious what happens in this scenario, since the constitution states that people are owed a fair and swift trial; so what happens when they can't happen? are they held indefinitley (potentially opening the government to lawsuits?) or released or....?

    Richy wrote: »
    But I think the resistance I’m getting more has to do with “rawr! Loklar said it! Rage!” than anything else.

    No, it has to do with the fact that you're done nothing but throw lies, blatant flasehoods, and downright dumb statements at us so far.
  • A Kobold's KoboldA Kobold's Kobold He/Him MississippiRegistered User regular
    edited January 2019
    edit: NOT CHAT

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  • mcdermottmcdermott Registered User regular
    Hirocon wrote: »
    Do TSA workers get pensions? That's the worst part, in my mind. If anyone working towards a pension has to quit their job because of this shutdown then they've lost all that money they were working towards. I imagine even if a federal employee quit and got re-hired later after the government re-opens, it would reset the clock towards earning a pension.

    TSA is enrolled in FERS. It’s a defined-benefit pension combined with employer matching into a retirement fund (and social security). To my knowledge the pension is based on cumulative years of service, so a break in service isn’t an issue there (other than the clock stopping...but it doesn’t reset). Employees with less than...god, I forget if it’s 2 or 5 years...will lose the employer matched portion of their retirement savings, but that’s it.

    PLA
  • SleepSleep Registered User regular
    Gaddez wrote: »
    moniker wrote: »
    As a reminder, the Judiciary runs out of money on Friday.

    This is going to get so much more stupid before it gets better.

    I'm curious what happens in this scenario, since the constitution states that people are owed a fair and swift trial; so what happens when they can't happen? are they held indefinitley (potentially opening the government to lawsuits?) or released or....?

    Guess we'll find out next week

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  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    Gaddez wrote: »
    moniker wrote: »
    As a reminder, the Judiciary runs out of money on Friday.

    This is going to get so much more stupid before it gets better.

    I'm curious what happens in this scenario, since the constitution states that people are owed a fair and swift trial; so what happens when they can't happen? are they held indefinitley (potentially opening the government to lawsuits?) or released or....?

    The judiciary will be considered essential employees and obliged to work without pay, same as like, FBI agents and whatnot. Still, its another huge chunk of employees doing volunteer work for Trump for no good reason, and you'll quickly start to see people like say, bailiffs and court security people starting to call in sick.

    "That is cool" - Abraham Lincoln
  • Metzger MeisterMetzger Meister Registered User regular
    edited January 2019
    edit: this isn't really adding anything sorry :\

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  • KaputaKaputa Registered User regular
    shryke wrote: »
    Trump folds all the time. And he clearly knows he's in a bad situation right now. It's just a question of how he decides to escape the trap he's built for himself.
    I honestly think it will be more difficult in this instance than in most (maybe all) others. The Wall is Trump's most important policy for much of his base. It has been a central element of his rhetoric since his campaign. He addressed the nation to argue in favor of it during a political standoff, and now we've had the longest such standoff in history over it. It's all over the news, even right wing news, though obviously with a different tack.

    To me, backing down to the Democrats and abandoning the wall sounds like political suicide for Trump. His base will feel betrayed and he will be unable to avoid looking weak, which is anathema to his machismo. Ideally he will calculate that the ongoing shutdown is more damaging politically than accepting defeat, but I'm not convinced that it is.

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  • PolaritiePolaritie Sleepy Registered User regular
    tbloxham wrote: »
    Gaddez wrote: »
    moniker wrote: »
    As a reminder, the Judiciary runs out of money on Friday.

    This is going to get so much more stupid before it gets better.

    I'm curious what happens in this scenario, since the constitution states that people are owed a fair and swift trial; so what happens when they can't happen? are they held indefinitley (potentially opening the government to lawsuits?) or released or....?

    The judiciary will be considered essential employees and obliged to work without pay, same as like, FBI agents and whatnot. Still, its another huge chunk of employees doing volunteer work for Trump for no good reason, and you'll quickly start to see people like say, bailiffs and court security people starting to call in sick.

    Most criminal matters are at the state level I think, at least?

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  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    Kaputa wrote: »
    shryke wrote: »
    Trump folds all the time. And he clearly knows he's in a bad situation right now. It's just a question of how he decides to escape the trap he's built for himself.
    I honestly think it will be more difficult in this instance than in most (maybe all) others. The Wall is Trump's most important policy for much of his base. It has been a central element of his rhetoric since his campaign. He addressed the nation to argue in favor of it during a political standoff, and now we've had the longest such standoff in history over it. It's all over the news, even right wing news, though obviously with a different tack.

    To me, backing down to the Democrats and abandoning the wall sounds like political suicide for Trump. His base will feel betrayed and he will be unable to avoid looking weak, which is anathema to his machismo. Ideally he will calculate that the ongoing shutdown is more damaging politically than accepting defeat, but I'm not convinced that it is.

    That's why I suspect something like the National Emergency thing is gonna be his play here. It gives him a way to claim victory while defusing the shutdown situation.

    And that's always been the way he's folded. He never admits defeat. He claims victory even as he runs off with his tail between his legs.

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  • kaidkaid Registered User regular
    Kaputa wrote: »
    shryke wrote: »
    Trump folds all the time. And he clearly knows he's in a bad situation right now. It's just a question of how he decides to escape the trap he's built for himself.
    I honestly think it will be more difficult in this instance than in most (maybe all) others. The Wall is Trump's most important policy for much of his base. It has been a central element of his rhetoric since his campaign. He addressed the nation to argue in favor of it during a political standoff, and now we've had the longest such standoff in history over it. It's all over the news, even right wing news, though obviously with a different tack.

    To me, backing down to the Democrats and abandoning the wall sounds like political suicide for Trump. His base will feel betrayed and he will be unable to avoid looking weak, which is anathema to his machismo. Ideally he will calculate that the ongoing shutdown is more damaging politically than accepting defeat, but I'm not convinced that it is.

    This is unfortunately why this shutdown is so dangerous. Trump boxed himself in so bad he has really no way to let the shut down go and save face save getting his damn border wall money. If he gives in he angers his base and if loses that enough then impeachment actually becomes a threat as I think a lot of the GOP would love to throw him into the memory hole with George W Bush the second they think they can safely do so. So trump is riding the tiger and does not dare let go and the dems rightfully can't give him what he wants because if they do we are going to have non stop shutdowns for the next couple years for every vanity project trump wants to engage in. So about the only hope is the heat gets bad enough that congressional GOP members start spalling off in numbers high enough to override a veto on a clean CR.

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  • CogCog Registered User regular
    Gaddez wrote: »
    shryke wrote: »
    Trump folds all the time. And he clearly knows he's in a bad situation right now. It's just a question of how he decides to escape the trap he's built for himself.

    This is the part that's so amazing about this whole fiasco: the only reason that you are at this point is because trump made a last minute demand against all sense and logic combined with badly misjudging the conviction of nancy pelosi (who, even if this wasn't a pointless waste of money and a giant symbol of racism might very well have told him to pound sand out of sheer spite due to how little respect he and his party have shown her).

    This "emergency" only exists because he made it happen.

    I don't recall if it was one of the Pod Saves or The Weeds that pointed out that Trump got himself into this position largely by "negotiating" like he would handle real-estate: shit on whoever you're dealing with because there's always another contractor in town to deal with. But you can't keep taking a shit on the Speaker of the House and Senate Minority Leader and expect to deal with a different Chuck & Nancy when the next negotiation comes around. You get one Chuck & Nancy and if you keep taking a shit on them, Pepperidge Farm fucking remembers.

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  • CptHamiltonCptHamilton Registered User regular
    edited January 2019
    kaid wrote: »
    Kaputa wrote: »
    shryke wrote: »
    Trump folds all the time. And he clearly knows he's in a bad situation right now. It's just a question of how he decides to escape the trap he's built for himself.
    I honestly think it will be more difficult in this instance than in most (maybe all) others. The Wall is Trump's most important policy for much of his base. It has been a central element of his rhetoric since his campaign. He addressed the nation to argue in favor of it during a political standoff, and now we've had the longest such standoff in history over it. It's all over the news, even right wing news, though obviously with a different tack.

    To me, backing down to the Democrats and abandoning the wall sounds like political suicide for Trump. His base will feel betrayed and he will be unable to avoid looking weak, which is anathema to his machismo. Ideally he will calculate that the ongoing shutdown is more damaging politically than accepting defeat, but I'm not convinced that it is.

    This is unfortunately why this shutdown is so dangerous. Trump boxed himself in so bad he has really no way to let the shut down go and save face save getting his damn border wall money. If he gives in he angers his base and if loses that enough then impeachment actually becomes a threat as I think a lot of the GOP would love to throw him into the memory hole with George W Bush the second they think they can safely do so. So trump is riding the tiger and does not dare let go and the dems rightfully can't give him what he wants because if they do we are going to have non stop shutdowns for the next couple years for every vanity project trump wants to engage in. So about the only hope is the heat gets bad enough that congressional GOP members start spalling off in numbers high enough to override a veto on a clean CR.

    If things are bad enough for the GOP base to make Mitch McConnell start really feeling the pressure he could also push Trump to accept the funding bill without the wall or else face a veto override. If that happens Trump might just hold a press conference and lie, saying he was getting all the border funding he wanted and would graciously consent to re-opening the government despite the best efforts of those damn, dirty Democrats while hoping his base is too ill-informed to notice that this is the version of the bill with no wall funding and hoping Fox doesn't call him out on it.

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  • CogCog Registered User regular
    kaid wrote: »
    Kaputa wrote: »
    shryke wrote: »
    Trump folds all the time. And he clearly knows he's in a bad situation right now. It's just a question of how he decides to escape the trap he's built for himself.
    I honestly think it will be more difficult in this instance than in most (maybe all) others. The Wall is Trump's most important policy for much of his base. It has been a central element of his rhetoric since his campaign. He addressed the nation to argue in favor of it during a political standoff, and now we've had the longest such standoff in history over it. It's all over the news, even right wing news, though obviously with a different tack.

    To me, backing down to the Democrats and abandoning the wall sounds like political suicide for Trump. His base will feel betrayed and he will be unable to avoid looking weak, which is anathema to his machismo. Ideally he will calculate that the ongoing shutdown is more damaging politically than accepting defeat, but I'm not convinced that it is.

    This is unfortunately why this shutdown is so dangerous. Trump boxed himself in so bad he has really no way to let the shut down go and save face save getting his damn border wall money. If he gives in he angers his base and if loses that enough then impeachment actually becomes a threat as I think a lot of the GOP would love to throw him into the memory hole with George W Bush the second they think they can safely do so. So trump is riding the tiger and does not dare let go and the dems rightfully can't give him what he wants because if they do we are going to have non stop shutdowns for the next couple years for every vanity project trump wants to engage in. So about the only hope is the heat gets bad enough that congressional GOP members start spalling off in numbers high enough to override a veto on a clean CR.

    This is why it will have to end up with the national emergency route.

    shrykeNobeard
  • kaidkaid Registered User regular
    Cog wrote: »
    kaid wrote: »
    Kaputa wrote: »
    shryke wrote: »
    Trump folds all the time. And he clearly knows he's in a bad situation right now. It's just a question of how he decides to escape the trap he's built for himself.
    I honestly think it will be more difficult in this instance than in most (maybe all) others. The Wall is Trump's most important policy for much of his base. It has been a central element of his rhetoric since his campaign. He addressed the nation to argue in favor of it during a political standoff, and now we've had the longest such standoff in history over it. It's all over the news, even right wing news, though obviously with a different tack.

    To me, backing down to the Democrats and abandoning the wall sounds like political suicide for Trump. His base will feel betrayed and he will be unable to avoid looking weak, which is anathema to his machismo. Ideally he will calculate that the ongoing shutdown is more damaging politically than accepting defeat, but I'm not convinced that it is.

    This is unfortunately why this shutdown is so dangerous. Trump boxed himself in so bad he has really no way to let the shut down go and save face save getting his damn border wall money. If he gives in he angers his base and if loses that enough then impeachment actually becomes a threat as I think a lot of the GOP would love to throw him into the memory hole with George W Bush the second they think they can safely do so. So trump is riding the tiger and does not dare let go and the dems rightfully can't give him what he wants because if they do we are going to have non stop shutdowns for the next couple years for every vanity project trump wants to engage in. So about the only hope is the heat gets bad enough that congressional GOP members start spalling off in numbers high enough to override a veto on a clean CR.

    This is why it will have to end up with the national emergency route.

    I think it will either be that or the senate GOP deciding to hell with it and try a veto override. I think for a clean CR with maybe a token of money for "border security" they can likely make that fly. The problem for trump with the emergency route is it likely winds up being seen as a phyrric attempt to save face that won't go anywhere and has the added bonus of really pissing off land owners in texas and other affected areas who are typically trump voters.

  • bowenbowen How you doin'? Registered User regular
    For real though, it's okay to fail.

    It's okay to not succeed in your goals.

    It's okay to apologize.

    It's okay to try and make amends.

    This "I must save face at all costs" is nuts. Your rabid fanbase isn't going to turn on you, and it certainly isn't going to get better the longer the economic effects fuck them. It's certainly not the dems not playing ball at this point. It's mostly McConnell being the slimy shit weasel he is because he knows that congress has enough votes to overturn this veto anyways. Why? Who knows the exact reason since we don't live in his head.

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  • CogCog Registered User regular
    I would prefer the veto override, but we need a lot of GOP flips, and that route angers the Trump base. It requires so many spines from the spineless, I don't see it.

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  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    Sleep wrote: »
    Gaddez wrote: »
    moniker wrote: »
    As a reminder, the Judiciary runs out of money on Friday.

    This is going to get so much more stupid before it gets better.

    I'm curious what happens in this scenario, since the constitution states that people are owed a fair and swift trial; so what happens when they can't happen? are they held indefinitley (potentially opening the government to lawsuits?) or released or....?

    Guess we'll find out next week

    It's literally never happened before, and nobody knows who counts as non-essential staff for the Court. Presumably it's janitorial and such, but there isn't a whole lot of people employed that don't touch directly on the basic functioning of a trial.

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  • CptHamiltonCptHamilton Registered User regular
    kaid wrote: »
    Cog wrote: »
    kaid wrote: »
    Kaputa wrote: »
    shryke wrote: »
    Trump folds all the time. And he clearly knows he's in a bad situation right now. It's just a question of how he decides to escape the trap he's built for himself.
    I honestly think it will be more difficult in this instance than in most (maybe all) others. The Wall is Trump's most important policy for much of his base. It has been a central element of his rhetoric since his campaign. He addressed the nation to argue in favor of it during a political standoff, and now we've had the longest such standoff in history over it. It's all over the news, even right wing news, though obviously with a different tack.

    To me, backing down to the Democrats and abandoning the wall sounds like political suicide for Trump. His base will feel betrayed and he will be unable to avoid looking weak, which is anathema to his machismo. Ideally he will calculate that the ongoing shutdown is more damaging politically than accepting defeat, but I'm not convinced that it is.

    This is unfortunately why this shutdown is so dangerous. Trump boxed himself in so bad he has really no way to let the shut down go and save face save getting his damn border wall money. If he gives in he angers his base and if loses that enough then impeachment actually becomes a threat as I think a lot of the GOP would love to throw him into the memory hole with George W Bush the second they think they can safely do so. So trump is riding the tiger and does not dare let go and the dems rightfully can't give him what he wants because if they do we are going to have non stop shutdowns for the next couple years for every vanity project trump wants to engage in. So about the only hope is the heat gets bad enough that congressional GOP members start spalling off in numbers high enough to override a veto on a clean CR.

    This is why it will have to end up with the national emergency route.

    I think it will either be that or the senate GOP deciding to hell with it and try a veto override. I think for a clean CR with maybe a token of money for "border security" they can likely make that fly. The problem for trump with the emergency route is it likely winds up being seen as a phyrric attempt to save face that won't go anywhere and has the added bonus of really pissing off land owners in texas and other affected areas who are typically trump voters.

    It doesn't have to go anywhere. Trump's base have spent the last two years accepting his vague assurances that "we're working on the wall" or "it's already under construction!" with no proof. If he makes a big, public splash about declaring an emergency and has a big signing ceremony of the type he loves issuing an order to the DoD to Build That Wall it can pretty much end there. Nobody ever has to do anything beyond shoving the order he signed into a folder in a filing cabinet somewhere. If his presidency survives long enough for it to come up as a 2020 election campaign issue he can just assure his fans that the best people are on the job and are figuring out the best wall the world has ever seen.

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  • joshofalltradesjoshofalltrades Class Traitor Smoke-filled roomRegistered User regular
    bowen wrote: »
    For real though, it's okay to fail.

    It's okay to not succeed in your goals.

    It's okay to apologize.

    It's okay to try and make amends.

    This "I must save face at all costs" is nuts. Your rabid fanbase isn't going to turn on you, and it certainly isn't going to get better the longer the economic effects fuck them. It's certainly not the dems not playing ball at this point. It's mostly McConnell being the slimy shit weasel he is because he knows that congress has enough votes to overturn this veto anyways. Why? Who knows the exact reason since we don't live in his head.

    Trump is a narcissist, their train of thought is abnormal. You and I can go, “oops, this whole thing was a mistake”. A narcissist cannot.

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  • DouglasDangerDouglasDanger PennsylvaniaRegistered User regular
    Holy fuck, is shutting down the judiciary Trump's plan?

    It's not, but you have find humor where you can

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  • CptHamiltonCptHamilton Registered User regular
    edited January 2019
    I'm pretty sure McConnell is holding out at this point because he needs to see Trump's approval tank for there to be any safe way out for GOP senators.

    If they get Trump to agree to a bill without wall funding then every single GOP senator up for election in 2020 is going to be facing, "You shut down the government for more than three weeks for nothing. Why?" If they override a Trump veto then they're abandoning the Trump base for those same elections. The longer this goes on the more their only way out (aside from Dems caving) is for the base to turn on Trump and make them overriding a veto heroic instead of villainous in the base's eyes.

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  • kaidkaid Registered User regular
    I'm pretty sure McConnell is holding out at this point because he needs to see Trump's approval tank for there to be any safe way out for GOP senators.

    If they get Trump to agree to a bill without wall funding then every single GOP senator up for election in 2020 is going to be facing, "You shut down the government for more than three weeks for nothing. Why?" If they override a Trump veto then they're abandoning the Trump base for those same elections. The longer this goes on the more their only way out (aside from Dems caving) is for the base to turn on Trump and make them overriding a veto heroic instead of villainous in the base's eyes.

    And the danger of that is the longer this goes the LESS likely either side will be to want to be seen as "caving". Its gone on long enough now both bases are going to be pissed if they wind up "giving in" and the longer it drags on the more it gets amplified if you did all this and caused this much pain and got nothing for it. Honestly I really don't see a way out because Trump's mercurial temper makes him such an unreliable partner nobody either GOP or dems trust him enough to go out on any limbs to get this shut down ended.

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  • Knight_Knight_ Dead Dead Dead Registered User regular
    I'm pretty sure McConnell is holding out at this point because he needs to see Trump's approval tank for there to be any safe way out for GOP senators.

    If they get Trump to agree to a bill without wall funding then every single GOP senator up for election in 2020 is going to be facing, "You shut down the government for more than three weeks for nothing. Why?" If they override a Trump veto then they're abandoning the Trump base for those same elections. The longer this goes on the more their only way out (aside from Dems caving) is for the base to turn on Trump and make them overriding a veto heroic instead of villainous in the base's eyes.

    if they turned the government back on tonight nobody would even remember by their next elections. shutdowns generally don't matter electorally, especially for individual members of congress.

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  • HiroconHirocon Registered User regular
    The way out is to vote Trump out of office in 2020. If you work for the federal government and don't have two years of savings, then I'm genuinely sorry for you but I recommend you start looking for a new job.

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  • CptHamiltonCptHamilton Registered User regular
    Knight_ wrote: »
    I'm pretty sure McConnell is holding out at this point because he needs to see Trump's approval tank for there to be any safe way out for GOP senators.

    If they get Trump to agree to a bill without wall funding then every single GOP senator up for election in 2020 is going to be facing, "You shut down the government for more than three weeks for nothing. Why?" If they override a Trump veto then they're abandoning the Trump base for those same elections. The longer this goes on the more their only way out (aside from Dems caving) is for the base to turn on Trump and make them overriding a veto heroic instead of villainous in the base's eyes.

    if they turned the government back on tonight nobody would even remember by their next elections. shutdowns generally don't matter electorally, especially for individual members of congress.

    Shutdowns overnight or for the weekend don't matter.

    The only reason I'd believe that the longest shutdown in US history won't be an election topic is because we are so absurdly replete with things to throw in GOP senators' faces come election time.

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  • naengwennaengwen Registered User regular
    I'm pretty sure McConnell is holding out at this point because he needs to see Trump's approval tank for there to be any safe way out for GOP senators.

    If they get Trump to agree to a bill without wall funding then every single GOP senator up for election in 2020 is going to be facing, "You shut down the government for more than three weeks for nothing. Why?" If they override a Trump veto then they're abandoning the Trump base for those same elections. The longer this goes on the more their only way out (aside from Dems caving) is for the base to turn on Trump and make them overriding a veto heroic instead of villainous in the base's eyes.

    I don't see Trump's approval tanking any further without Bugs Bunny extending his sawing off of Florida to the entire southeastern US.

    Or, y'know, the senate actually doing its job for once, then the GOP doing everything in their power to throw Trump under the bus to save face. Then maybe I'll finally get that unicorn.

    Lovely
  • Martini_PhilosopherMartini_Philosopher Registered User regular
    I'm pretty sure McConnell is holding out at this point because he needs to see Trump's approval tank for there to be any safe way out for GOP senators.

    If they get Trump to agree to a bill without wall funding then every single GOP senator up for election in 2020 is going to be facing, "You shut down the government for more than three weeks for nothing. Why?" If they override a Trump veto then they're abandoning the Trump base for those same elections. The longer this goes on the more their only way out (aside from Dems caving) is for the base to turn on Trump and make them overriding a veto heroic instead of villainous in the base's eyes.

    I've seen some rumblings in other forums calling this the Harkonnen Gambit. McConnell is waiting for the right moment to replace Rabban (that is Trump) with someone far more pliable and likable Feyd (Pence) once people get angry enough. All McConnell has to do is wait out the shutdown to the point where that happens. He can swoop in with a bill to open the government at which point Pence invokes the 25th and out Trump goes.

    I don't know how successful this would be as Trump enjoys taking others down with him. Not to mention that whole Russia thing over the weekend that kinda implies that most of the GOP was in on it. So who knows? Would the rest of the US be happy enough to let it go or would Pence also be up on the chopping block considering how close he was to Trump this whole time?

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  • Knight_Knight_ Dead Dead Dead Registered User regular
    Knight_ wrote: »
    I'm pretty sure McConnell is holding out at this point because he needs to see Trump's approval tank for there to be any safe way out for GOP senators.

    If they get Trump to agree to a bill without wall funding then every single GOP senator up for election in 2020 is going to be facing, "You shut down the government for more than three weeks for nothing. Why?" If they override a Trump veto then they're abandoning the Trump base for those same elections. The longer this goes on the more their only way out (aside from Dems caving) is for the base to turn on Trump and make them overriding a veto heroic instead of villainous in the base's eyes.

    if they turned the government back on tonight nobody would even remember by their next elections. shutdowns generally don't matter electorally, especially for individual members of congress.

    Shutdowns overnight or for the weekend don't matter.

    The only reason I'd believe that the longest shutdown in US history won't be an election topic is because we are so absurdly replete with things to throw in GOP senators' faces come election time.

    they're mostly worried about being primaried.

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  • CptHamiltonCptHamilton Registered User regular
    naengwen wrote: »
    I'm pretty sure McConnell is holding out at this point because he needs to see Trump's approval tank for there to be any safe way out for GOP senators.

    If they get Trump to agree to a bill without wall funding then every single GOP senator up for election in 2020 is going to be facing, "You shut down the government for more than three weeks for nothing. Why?" If they override a Trump veto then they're abandoning the Trump base for those same elections. The longer this goes on the more their only way out (aside from Dems caving) is for the base to turn on Trump and make them overriding a veto heroic instead of villainous in the base's eyes.

    I don't see Trump's approval tanking any further without Bugs Bunny extending his sawing off of Florida to the entire southeastern US.

    Or, y'know, the senate actually doing its job for once, then the GOP doing everything in their power to throw Trump under the bus to save face. Then maybe I'll finally get that unicorn.

    I said it over in the Mueller thread but I'll say it again: a government shutdown like this is one of the few things that I think actually stands a chance of cratering his remaining approval.

    Most Trump supporters don't consume news. If they watch Fox at all it's a bit of one show or another; otherwise their 'news' comes in the form of Facebook posts and rumors heard from people they know. Any given scandal has no impact on them because they either never hear about it, hear about it in a way that frames it in Trump's favor, or simply dismiss it as rumor or Leftist naysaying. The shutdown directly impacts a lot of them, their family, or their friends. People who either work for the government or depend on services that are trickling toward nothing as the shutdown drags on. And in the absence of any sort of political knowledge, the President gets the blame for any kind of national tragedy or hardship.

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  • CogCog Registered User regular
    edited January 2019
    Knight_ wrote: »
    I'm pretty sure McConnell is holding out at this point because he needs to see Trump's approval tank for there to be any safe way out for GOP senators.

    If they get Trump to agree to a bill without wall funding then every single GOP senator up for election in 2020 is going to be facing, "You shut down the government for more than three weeks for nothing. Why?" If they override a Trump veto then they're abandoning the Trump base for those same elections. The longer this goes on the more their only way out (aside from Dems caving) is for the base to turn on Trump and make them overriding a veto heroic instead of villainous in the base's eyes.

    if they turned the government back on tonight nobody would even remember by their next elections. shutdowns generally don't matter electorally, especially for individual members of congress.

    This one has the potential to be impactful, especially if it hangs on for a significantly longer time. Shutdowns haven't mattered electorally, but we haven't had one yet that was allowed to truly cause the personal financial devastation and potentially global economic repercussions that this one could. That is the electoral stink that can stick with you.

    No shutdown hast mattered electorally because, historically, someone has blinked before it had a chance to.

    Cog on
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  • DoodmannDoodmann Registered User regular
    I'm pretty sure McConnell is holding out at this point because he needs to see Trump's approval tank for there to be any safe way out for GOP senators.

    If they get Trump to agree to a bill without wall funding then every single GOP senator up for election in 2020 is going to be facing, "You shut down the government for more than three weeks for nothing. Why?" If they override a Trump veto then they're abandoning the Trump base for those same elections. The longer this goes on the more their only way out (aside from Dems caving) is for the base to turn on Trump and make them overriding a veto heroic instead of villainous in the base's eyes.

    I've seen some rumblings in other forums calling this the Harkonnen Gambit. McConnell is waiting for the right moment to replace Rabban (that is Trump) with someone far more pliable and likable Feyd (Pence) once people get angry enough. All McConnell has to do is wait out the shutdown to the point where that happens. He can swoop in with a bill to open the government at which point Pence invokes the 25th and out Trump goes.

    I don't know how successful this would be as Trump enjoys taking others down with him. Not to mention that whole Russia thing over the weekend that kinda implies that most of the GOP was in on it. So who knows? Would the rest of the US be happy enough to let it go or would Pence also be up on the chopping block considering how close he was to Trump this whole time?

    You have now let me imagine a world where the GOP does this, takes out trump, who then flips for Muller and chops off the head of the GOP.
    It's the dream of a madman but if Gendry can sit on the Iron Throne then Trump can be America's Gom Jabar. This is 2019 for gods sakes, we're in the end game.

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