2019 Shutdown Boogaloo Part 2 : Border "Wall" negotiations

So It GoesSo It Goes We keep moving...Registered User regular
Talk about the negotiations/deal between GOP and Dems re: "border security" and whether or not our President is gonna screw that shit up again here.

All rules apply as before in the previous shutdown thread.

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  • QuidQuid Definitely not a banana Registered User regular
    Seems like Trump has given in but I don’t believe it until a bill is signed.

  • JragghenJragghen Registered User regular
    I think I've figured out the game, kinda.

    This is the important quote, from that CNBC article, emphasis mine.
    Drew Hammill, a spokesman for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, said Tuesday that "there is no wall money" in the tentative deal. It includes the same amount of money for physical barriers as a spending bill passed last year, he said.

    It includes 55 more miles of "bollard fencing". That can be anything from completely useless to...well, what we've been describing as the wall all along. Republicans spin this as barrier spending for the wall. Democrats note that this is not additional money: it's the same amount of money for physical barriers that was in a bill last year, when Republicans controlled Congress.

    That's where they're trying to let both sides eke out a win.

  • HenroidHenroid Mexican kicked from Immigration Thread Centrism is Racism :3Registered User regular
    Oh boy I've been waiting for this thread.

    Quid I didn't see anything about Trump giving in. I saw that he doesn't like the deal, but he probably accepts he can't fight it without McConnell's support (which is to say, doing all the fighting).

  • zepherinzepherin Russian warship, go fuck yourself Registered User regular
    Quid wrote: »
    Seems like Trump has given in but I don’t believe it until a bill is signed.
    He is a vicious idiot who often governs from a position of spite.

  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    edited February 2019
    Henroid wrote: »
    McCarthy is trying to cover for Trump, claiming the Democrats are "caving." He's strategically using the words "border barrier" though.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/12/kevin-mccarthy-democrats-caved-on-trumps-border-barrier-demand.html

    I think Democrats should try to split the baby and accept Trump's proposal of a border barrier made up of 2,000 miles of peaches. It might help flip Georgia.

    moniker on
  • Commander ZoomCommander Zoom Registered User regular
    zepherin wrote: »
    Quid wrote: »
    Seems like Trump has given in but I don’t believe it until a bill is signed.
    He is a vicious idiot who often governs from a position of spite.

    Which, unfortunately, makes him the perfect representative / embodiment of the current GOP base.

  • RedTideRedTide Registered User regular
    Quid wrote: »
    Seems like Trump has given in but I don’t believe it until a bill is signed.

    Sex abuse enabler and aspiring Speaker of the House, Kevin McCarthy is still trying to push this deal hard with our mercurial President and the trolls in their base. He is absolutely signalling to Ann Coulter and the like that this is the best deal they are going to get and to not shit in the pool.

    For what it's worth this is a decent deal for Democrats that makes them

    A. Further look like good faith actors/adults in the room

    B. Doesn't give Trump what he really wants but gives him an out if he's smart enough to take it

    C. Gives us an opportunity to avoid making thousands of peoples lives less shitty for no reason.

    The downsides are is that this really doesn't curb the human rights crisis going on at the border. But to be honest that isn't happening with this crowd in charge.

    My personal expectation is that this deal dies because the President isn't smart enough/a savvy enough negotiator to realize that the fact that the Democrats are now only agreeing to a lower dollar amount then previously is because they know they hold all of the cards here.

    And that the border wall they're giving him, which would do excellently protecting a pedestrian walkway, can't be used in photo ops unless Trump wants to anger his own base for getting played.

    This isn't an ideal scenario but from a political standpoint the House Democrats have scored a major win.

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  • Jealous DevaJealous Deva Registered User regular
    edited February 2019
    RedTide wrote: »
    Quid wrote: »
    Seems like Trump has given in but I don’t believe it until a bill is signed.

    Sex abuse enabler and aspiring Speaker of the House, Kevin McCarthy is still trying to push this deal hard with our mercurial President and the trolls in their base. He is absolutely signalling to Ann Coulter and the like that this is the best deal they are going to get and to not shit in the pool.

    For what it's worth this is a decent deal for Democrats that makes them

    A. Further look like good faith actors/adults in the room

    B. Doesn't give Trump what he really wants but gives him an out if he's smart enough to take it

    C. Gives us an opportunity to avoid making thousands of peoples lives less shitty for no reason.

    The downsides are is that this really doesn't curb the human rights crisis going on at the border. But to be honest that isn't happening with this crowd in charge.

    My personal expectation is that this deal dies because the President isn't smart enough/a savvy enough negotiator to realize that the fact that the Democrats are now only agreeing to a lower dollar amount then previously is because they know they hold all of the cards here.

    And that the border wall they're giving him, which would do excellently protecting a pedestrian walkway, can't be used in photo ops unless Trump wants to anger his own base for getting played.

    This isn't an ideal scenario but from a political standpoint the House Democrats have scored a major win.

    Jim Jordan was the sex abuse enabler, Kevin McCarthy is the one that withdrew from his speakership candidacy because he was having an affair with a female congresswoman which was promptly forgotten when she lost an election. Both were running against each other for speaker when the Democrats won and rendered it moot.

    I know its hard to keep track sometimes.

    Jealous Deva on
  • DacDac Registered User regular
    zepherin wrote: »
    Quid wrote: »
    Seems like Trump has given in but I don’t believe it until a bill is signed.
    He is a vicious idiot who often governs from a position of spite.

    Eh, he governs based on how the people on Fox and Friends treat him.

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  • Undead ScottsmanUndead Scottsman Cybertronian Paranormal Eliminator Registered User regular
    So It Goes wrote: »
    Yeah I do think McConnell really does not want another shutdown

    Let's see how Trump screws this up again

    Honestly, at some point, protecting Trump should inevitably include protecting him from himself. The previous shut down got them nothing and was heading towards some all time high disapproval ratings for Trump.
    Fencingsax wrote: »

    What's the old saying? A good compromise is one nobody is happy with?

  • AngelHedgieAngelHedgie Registered User regular
    So It Goes wrote: »
    Yeah I do think McConnell really does not want another shutdown

    Let's see how Trump screws this up again

    Honestly, at some point, protecting Trump should inevitably include protecting him from himself. The previous shut down got them nothing and was heading towards some all time high disapproval ratings for Trump.
    Fencingsax wrote: »

    What's the old saying? A good compromise is one nobody is happy with?

    You can only protect someone who is willing to listen, which is the whole issue.

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  • WordherderWordherder Registered User regular
    The case for Trump signing the deal: at his last rally, where he was surrounded by enthusiastic supporters that chanted "lock her up" and assaulted the media there and all that jazz, he wasn't in full build the wall mode as you'd expect. Instead, he went on and on about how they're building the wall already.

    The case against Trump signing the deal: Trump is essentially a chaos muppet.

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  • GaddezGaddez Registered User regular
    An important distinction I caught wind of earlier today; The ammount that was agreed upon for border security was 1.4 billion.

    Which is funny to me, because Lindsey graham whined that anything less then 1.6 would destroy the republican party.

    :)

  • AbsoluteZeroAbsoluteZero The new film by Quentin Koopantino Registered User regular
    I'm pretty sure this will pass because it will give the figgiest of fig leafs for Trump to trot out his "finish the wall" bullshit mantra. His stupid base will eat it up.

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  • MarathonMarathon Registered User regular
    Gaddez wrote: »
    An important distinction I caught wind of earlier today; The ammount that was agreed upon for border security was 1.4 billion.

    Which is funny to me, because Lindsey graham whined that anything less then 1.6 would destroy the republican party.

    :)

    So, just to make sure I have this straight.

    Originally Democrats agreed to 25 billion in funding and Trump killed that plan.

    Then Democrats had 5-ish billion on the table, and then Trump shut the government down.

    And now, the agreement is 1.4 billion?

  • QuidQuid Definitely not a banana Registered User regular
    I hate to say it but the deciding factor for this will probably be how Fox News reacts over the next couple days.

  • HenroidHenroid Mexican kicked from Immigration Thread Centrism is Racism :3Registered User regular
    Pulling this from the immigration thread, it's better suited here.
    Lilnoobs wrote: »
    Rush Limbaugh on his show today described the compromise as a win for Trump. The basic logic goes: the original thing democrats wanted was no wall, but now there is wall, so Trump won.

    I only mention this because I think the compromise will pass as a 'win' for Trump based on what I heard from one of his immigration advisors (Rush). It seems like a narrative that will carry.
    The question is, is Trump a radio guy? Will he even hear that?

    I dunno though. I mean as long as the Democrats keep calling it a 'fence' and point out that of $5 billion specifically for a wall he got $1, it'll eventually push him enough into reacting as if he lost.

  • SleepSleep Registered User regular
    That's the thing, don't call them on the fact their idiots till after they sign on the dotted line and prevent another shutdown, and then we can explain how it's actually a pretty solid win considering what was demanded and what was given. Let them take a pittance and think its a pile just a bit longer.

  • joshofalltradesjoshofalltrades Class Traitor Smoke-filled roomRegistered User regular
    I picture Mitch McConnell cornering Trump in a chiaroscuro shot and threatening to cut him if he goes fickle and threatens another shutdown

  • HenroidHenroid Mexican kicked from Immigration Thread Centrism is Racism :3Registered User regular
    I mean from my point of view, fences already exist at the border. They're lame and ineffective. So if they want to spend more money on that and call it a victory of some sort, go for it. It's like giving a kid a new toy like blocks to be distracted with.

    It's a huge, far-cry from "The Wall" that Trump has wanted. Like it's not even the same ballpark. He's made attempts to start walking back the expectation to begin with, when he goes "you can call it a barrier or fence or whatever." He hasn't been consistent with it, but he's dipped his toes enough to try and engage in spin. It's really sad, especially compared to all the charged up speeches he would give about this garbage.

  • ViskodViskod Registered User regular
    Gaddez wrote: »
    An important distinction I caught wind of earlier today; The ammount that was agreed upon for border security was 1.4 billion.

    Which is funny to me, because Lindsey graham whined that anything less then 1.6 would destroy the republican party.

    :)

    And that was 1.6 billion for just wall money This is 1.4 for anything but wall money.

  • Fuzzy Cumulonimbus CloudFuzzy Cumulonimbus Cloud Registered User regular
    The bill doesn't solve ICE and it doesn't fix the human rights violations we have been sanctioning for years but at least it won't shut down the government and screw everyone over?

  • AngelHedgieAngelHedgie Registered User regular
    The bill doesn't solve ICE and it doesn't fix the human rights violations we have been sanctioning for years but at least it won't shut down the government and screw everyone over?

    We can't solve those until 2021,sadly.

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  • HenroidHenroid Mexican kicked from Immigration Thread Centrism is Racism :3Registered User regular
    The bill doesn't solve ICE and it doesn't fix the human rights violations we have been sanctioning for years but at least it won't shut down the government and screw everyone over?
    The shutdown fight was never contingent on solving the ICE problem. That'd be nice but there currently isn't enough leverage in the Senate to entertain that idea. It does include reining ICE in though, RE: how many people they detain. If the DHS doesn't act in good faith and tries to expand ICE's capacity anyway, it sets up a lot of precedent to go for the jugular as it were.

    Abolish ICE.

  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    The bill doesn't solve ICE and it doesn't fix the human rights violations we have been sanctioning for years but at least it won't shut down the government and screw everyone over?

    We can't solve those until 2021,sadly.

    Also, that is a different kind of legislation than annual appropriations. And rightfully so.

  • HenroidHenroid Mexican kicked from Immigration Thread Centrism is Racism :3Registered User regular
    I was just now thinking that if Trump doesn't sign this and the government falls into shutdown again, we get to have a repeat of "negotiations don't happen until the government is opened back up." If Trump is listening to the people telling him as such, that means the next couple days are the time to make counter-offers / demands. Not after Friday.

  • Commander ZoomCommander Zoom Registered User regular
    @Henroid:
    I figure that of all of us here, you probably are the most affected; so if you're okay with this, I am too. Still bugs me that he's getting anything even vaguely wall-like, though.

  • HenroidHenroid Mexican kicked from Immigration Thread Centrism is Racism :3Registered User regular
    Henroid:
    I figure that of all of us here, you probably are the most affected; so if you're okay with this, I am too. Still bugs me that he's getting anything even vaguely wall-like, though.
    Thank you.

    Don't get me wrong, giving nothing would be ideal always. But what's being given isn't a percentage of wall, it's a different thing and is clearly a token gesture that is going to be embarrassing to twist into a victory. It also possibly avoids another shutdown.

  • TL DRTL DR Not at all confident in his reflexive opinions of thingsRegistered User regular
    The bill doesn't solve ICE and it doesn't fix the human rights violations we have been sanctioning for years but at least it won't shut down the government and screw everyone over?

    Passing through the previous funding increase for more border fencing also directly translates to more deaths of immigrants forced into increasingly dangerous crossings.

    The only real victory to come out of this was the actions of workers to end the shutdown to begin with, and what that bodes for ultimately being able to address some of these problems.

  • ElJeffeElJeffe Registered User, ClubPA regular
    Henroid wrote: »
    Pulling this from the immigration thread, it's better suited here.
    Lilnoobs wrote: »
    Rush Limbaugh on his show today described the compromise as a win for Trump. The basic logic goes: the original thing democrats wanted was no wall, but now there is wall, so Trump won.

    I only mention this because I think the compromise will pass as a 'win' for Trump based on what I heard from one of his immigration advisors (Rush). It seems like a narrative that will carry.
    The question is, is Trump a radio guy? Will he even hear that?

    I dunno though. I mean as long as the Democrats keep calling it a 'fence' and point out that of $5 billion specifically for a wall he got $1, it'll eventually push him enough into reacting as if he lost.

    The dems can actually point to this as two wins, really.

    There was the shutdown, and the dems said "no negotiations until the government is opened up." And there were no negotiations until the government opened up.

    Then the was "we're not giving you a penny for your stupid racist wall." And this agreement is pretty damned close to not a penny. It's a small amount of money, some of which can go to something that you could maybe technically call a wall if you're desperate for spin. It's not as unqualified a victory as the first shutdown battle, but it's still largely a win.

    The dems are two for two, now. Maybe 1.9 for two. Still pretty good.

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  • JavenJaven Registered User regular
    There are people who would have called it an unabashed Trump victory for the wall if he managed to build a pillow fort in the oval office. Those people aren't worth listening to.

  • HenroidHenroid Mexican kicked from Immigration Thread Centrism is Racism :3Registered User regular
    ElJeffe wrote: »
    Henroid wrote: »
    Pulling this from the immigration thread, it's better suited here.
    Lilnoobs wrote: »
    Rush Limbaugh on his show today described the compromise as a win for Trump. The basic logic goes: the original thing democrats wanted was no wall, but now there is wall, so Trump won.

    I only mention this because I think the compromise will pass as a 'win' for Trump based on what I heard from one of his immigration advisors (Rush). It seems like a narrative that will carry.
    The question is, is Trump a radio guy? Will he even hear that?

    I dunno though. I mean as long as the Democrats keep calling it a 'fence' and point out that of $5 billion specifically for a wall he got $1, it'll eventually push him enough into reacting as if he lost.

    The dems can actually point to this as two wins, really.

    There was the shutdown, and the dems said "no negotiations until the government is opened up." And there were no negotiations until the government opened up.

    Then the was "we're not giving you a penny for your stupid racist wall." And this agreement is pretty damned close to not a penny. It's a small amount of money, some of which can go to something that you could maybe technically call a wall if you're desperate for spin. It's not as unqualified a victory as the first shutdown battle, but it's still largely a win.

    The dems are two for two, now. Maybe 1.9 for two. Still pretty good.
    I'm willing to grant it being a solid two for two.

    I'm a little weirded out that we haven't heard much from the White House today, which tells me they're sitting with Trump right now either calming him down or explaining things to him as best they can. Or both. There isn't as much bombast going on so hopefully that means he'll say "bring it to my desk and I will sign the budget."

  • BrodyBrody The Watch The First ShoreRegistered User regular
    Javen wrote: »
    There are people who would have called it an unabashed Trump victory for the wall if he managed to build a pillow fort in the oval office. Those people aren't worth listening to.

    I mean, they're right to a degree. Letting racist toddlers build pillow forts in the highest office of the United States is a victory for racists.

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  • ElJeffeElJeffe Registered User, ClubPA regular
    Over-under on Trump signing the bill and just never speaking of it, while continuing to demand a Big Beautiful Wall?

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  • Jebus314Jebus314 Registered User regular
    ElJeffe wrote: »
    Over-under on Trump signing the bill and just never speaking of it, while continuing to demand a Big Beautiful Wall?

    I would set the under pretty low. He can't not talk about stuff on the news, and it will be in the news. The over on everything he says about the bill being false should be pretty high though.

    "The world is a mess, and I just need to rule it" - Dr Horrible
  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    ElJeffe wrote: »
    Over-under on Trump signing the bill and just never speaking of it, while continuing to demand a Big Beautiful Wall?

    I'm going with he signs it and declares a down payment on Wall, along with some Game of Thrones copyright violations.

  • BucketmanBucketman Call me SkraggRegistered User regular
    I hope he signs this and whole thing is over, but I also would be ok if he wants to be dumb about it and do the state of emergency thing, that way it gets held up in court for who knows how long.

  • HenroidHenroid Mexican kicked from Immigration Thread Centrism is Racism :3Registered User regular
    ElJeffe wrote: »
    Over-under on Trump signing the bill and just never speaking of it, while continuing to demand a Big Beautiful Wall?
    Man no amount of convincing or coercion could get me to make any bet on "what will Trump do" in this specific a sense and time table. When it comes to the budget he has literally gone day to day from saying "okay we'll do it" to "NO" and back again.

    In the long run he won't shut up about the Wall. But what he's going to do now? Flip a coin. Five times. He'll do all of the results.

  • ViskodViskod Registered User regular
    edited February 2019
    ElJeffe wrote: »
    Over-under on Trump signing the bill and just never speaking of it, while continuing to demand a Big Beautiful Wall?

    There are reports that he's "likely" to sign it.
    Javen wrote: »
    There are people who would have called it an unabashed Trump victory for the wall if he managed to build a pillow fort in the oval office. Those people aren't worth listening to.

    Nancy Pelosi in an interview at the start of the last shutdown was asked about Trump and his wall. She then pointed behind her to some flowers in her office and said "You could plant those at the border, and he'd say he got his wall."

    Which is telling because at his El Paso rally the other night he had signs up that read "Finish the Wall" and told people at the rally that Congress had already given him the money to start the wall and that construction on the wall had already begun. Which is obviously not true but tells us he intends to use the money for the fencing in this bill as his "My wall started" excuse.

    Viskod on
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