It'll be interesting to see what European election results look like if (when) we do end up having them.
From our atrocious results last time in 2014, where we sent 24 UKIPers, it seems the anti-EU nut was always fairly motivated to vote whereas the rest of the population were pretty apathetic. This time there will be such a massive amount of greater public interest, and the results will no doubt be seen as mini referendum on the various party's EU, and hence Brexit, policies.
Remember that the 2014 Euro election was right during the expenses scandal, and there was a serious 'teach those politicians a lesson' feeling. Anti-EU was part of it, but an election came along and people voted for the parties that hadn't been in the news next to the word scandal. The fact that this was for Europe rather than this country barely registered for a lot of people.
This time around, I'd expect people to pay a little more attention to what they're actually voting for. The danger would be the anti-EU voters making a push while the pro-EU voters decide 'what's the point?', but it could easily go the other way. For a prevailing feeling, I think a lot of people would vote for a 'just stop talking about bloody Brexit' party, there's a growing sentiment of Just Sick Of Hearing About It.
Unfortunately, much like the MPs voting against No Deal as if that actually solves/accomplishes anything, not wanting to hear about it/wanting it to just be over already doesn't help or stop anything from happening. Only voting to Revoke - to do something - does that.
Unfortunately, much like the MPs voting against No Deal as if that actually solves/accomplishes anything, not wanting to hear about it/wanting it to just be over already doesn't help or stop anything from happening. Only voting to Revoke - to do something - does that.
Yeah, it's a serious danger. There is a growing number of people of the viewpoint 'just get on with it', and they don't really care if it's deal, no deal, or no brexit. They'll complain about it regardless.
I think it’s more people are just fed up with Brexit as a whole and that it needs to be resolved in some way (whether that is leaving or remaining) rather than just Brexiting because they don’t want to hear about it anymore.
I’m really hoping history remembers these chuckleheads as fondly as I think of them now. Especially Boris.
And I can sympathize, I really do, even when what they're wanting to hurry up (whether they realize it or not) is essentially their own execution...
It's just that the option to, you know, not go through with it, to call it off, is still right there.. Just being ignored.
Something flailing wildly, desperately trying to find a form that will allow it to survive the deadly environment it's trapped in that is sure to destroy it utterly?
The judges rule that the metaphor stands.
So what is the point of extending this to October? Has the UK made any indication of doing anything different? Are there going to be elections or a referendum?
So what is the point of extending this to October? Has the UK made any indication of doing anything different? Are there going to be elections or a referendum?
Unknown as yet if there will be a referendum, that's the big question, or one of them. There will be EU Parliament elections, at least, but domestically... who knows? I assume May will limp along for now, but...
HenroidMexican kicked from Immigration ThreadCentrism is Racism :3Registered Userregular
edited April 2019
This is agonizing and kinda terrible if you think about it. Businesses have been trickling away from Britain over this whole Brexit thing and they're going to keep doing it while the government votes over and over to do nothing about any plan whatsoever.
Edit - This is more doom & gloom than I meant for it to sound; I meant to emphasize that they need a plan, not indefinite time without any plan. Either form a plan and do it or preferably cancel the whole idea of leaving the EU.
So what is the point of extending this to October? Has the UK made any indication of doing anything different? Are there going to be elections or a referendum?
Unknown as yet if there will be a referendum, that's the big question, or one of them. There will be EU Parliament elections, at least, but domestically... who knows? I assume May will limp along for now, but...
I think this is the way they'll limit the interference some ERG nutters have suggested we participate in if we don't get our way.
Pretty clever move really from the EU. Then again our government are so bereft of competent politicians I'm easily impressed.
This is agonizing and kinda terrible if you think about it. Businesses have been trickling away from Britain over this whole Brexit thing and they're going to keep doing it while the government votes over and over to do nothing about any plan whatsoever.
Edit - This is more doom & gloom than I meant for it to sound; I meant to emphasize that they need a plan, not indefinite time without any plan. Either form a plan and do it or preferably cancel the whole idea of leaving the EU.
The whole thing is an enormous disaster, but I think this is the only path that could still potentially result in Remain happening. So I think dragging it out is worth it for the possibility of a decent outcome, as wasteful as the whole mess has been.
So what is the point of extending this to October? Has the UK made any indication of doing anything different? Are there going to be elections or a referendum?
For the last two years we've had the Tories arguing that they can get a Brexit that their party supports, with the help of Northern Ireland. And when that failed we had the Tories saying that the other side will blink (either the EU on the withdrawal agreement or Labour on the also the Withdrawal agreement) whilst the DUP had their back. Don't sell the indicative votes short - Ken Clark and the Custom Union failing by 3 votes is why things have changed, but those were always the starting point rather than the end. We know what kind of thing might get supported, and what would convince people to vote otherwise.
There's no doubt that's failed, and May has had a vote of no confidence called on her by the Hard Brexiteers - and then won. No one is going to step into the hot seat to deliver a hard brexit, and it doesn't have majority support within the Tories.
May is now in apparently serious talks with other parties, and Parliament has shown that it can go around Government if it has to by getting the first backbencher legislation passed in the history of the UK.
Just because an apparent deal isn't here, doesn't mean things are categorically in a different place than before Christmas. And that's before you even bring the various polling into the issue.
There will be elections (European), which will gauge the public mood alongside all the polling that will happen alongside this.
Stuff is finally happening, it's the polar opposite of more of the same or nothing happening. It's the stuff that should have been happening before the referendum or before article 50 was invoked. But it'll still take time - some would say two years seems a decent original guess to be honest.
Extending it out to October lets more voices get heard on the issue, means the ERG/hard Brexit minority get diluted back to closer to the volume they represent (even if that's still irresponsible), lets you start the chain of events that could put this to a public vote so the current Brexiting population of the UK gets a say - and prevents a global recession No Deal would cause.
There's very little reason not to grant an extension if things are happening, especially when they are the things that should have happened so long ago.
[cheat edit]There has to be no greater irony that spellcheck suggesting "Brevity" for "Brexit".
[Second cheat edit]I wonder if we're now looking at Legacy May - "the PM who lost her party for the sake of the country", in the more favourable history books that start end of 2018 rather than dwell much earlier than that.
I reckon the ball is still in the court of the hard right euroskeptic wing of the Tory party - they could end this right now if they declared themselves Bluekip and no-confidence'd everyone who didn't advocate for proportional representation. That not happening is the only reason for the delay, and UKIP vs Brexit party in the EU elections is what's going to change that one way or the other.
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MortiousThe Nightmare BeginsMove to New ZealandRegistered Userregular
Well I was pleasantly wrong on them granting an extention.
They've either concluded that No Deal is a worse outcome than the uncertainty around Brexit with a chance that it'll happen anyway, or they're confident that it'll eventually fizzle out and result in a remain.
Well I was pleasantly wrong on them granting an extention.
They've either concluded that No Deal is a worse outcome than the uncertainty around Brexit with a chance that it'll happen anyway, or they're confident that it'll eventually fizzle out and result in a remain.
The two deadlines are kind of procedurally based - are we still acting in good faith (IT'D BETTER NOT BE BORIS COMING BACK HERE) on June 30th, and what's the next decision point we have to make where the UK gets reinstalled at some element in the EU government. It's minimising involvement without setting up a No Deal scenario - far from a vote of confidence for Remain squeaking in, or they'd have backed Greece's 2022 plan.
Or it's just some meat to throw Macron, knowing that October is enough to see something that'd suggest a longer extension (i.e. to start a referendum then or because parties are still coping with the last election).
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surrealitychecklonely, but not unloveddreaming of faulty keys and latchesRegistered Userregular
edited April 2019
yes its long but not final; they got us over the hump of eu elections, things as ever will change as they go
broadly it is as expected although the exact date is a little shorter than mooted december
also im going to be maximally smug that my prediction we would get a long extension from a few months ago has paid off suck it people who flamed my hopes and dreams... we can all be a unicorn.... believe in yourself...
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HenroidMexican kicked from Immigration ThreadCentrism is Racism :3Registered Userregular
Does the UK government have to vote on accepting the extension offered?
Nope, it's all modifications to references in other laws.
Also if you're US - generally Government = Executive, Parliament = Congress.
Fact that the leader of the main party in the commons is also the head of the Executive means the lines are a lot more blurred than you are used to, but it's kind of that if you assume that you always win presidency and congress at the same time.
The Government and the voting representatives are very different things at the moment.
also im going to be maximally smug that my prediction we would get a long extension from a few months ago has paid off suck it people who flamed my hopes and dreams... we can all be a unicorn.... believe in yourself...
So the plan is to just keep granting extensions until the UK finally gets it shit together or they just revoke and be done with it.
I think October is a bigger thing, you'd either need a big extension after that or need measures in place. October 31st is the date where nothing too permanent happens - after that the UK is voting or not voting in 5 year plans etc.
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Dhalphirdon't you open that trapdooryou're a fool if you dareRegistered Userregular
I'm pretty comfortable in saying that, mentally, I've now crossed the threshold of assuming Brexit will eventually be cancelled. Just a matter of how long.
Lord_AsmodeusgoeticSobriquet:Here is your magical cryptic riddle-tumour: I AM A TIME MACHINERegistered Userregular
So, take pity on a poor non-European, I feel like I might have missed something, but what was the significance of the EU elections and not being able to get around them? Is it like elections for who will represent the individual nations to the EU?
Capital is only the fruit of labor, and could never have existed if Labor had not first existed. Labor is superior to capital, and deserves much the higher consideration. - Lincoln
So, take pity on a poor non-European, I feel like I might have missed something, but what was the significance of the EU elections and not being able to get around them? Is it like elections for who will represent the individual nations to the EU?
Like states send folks to Washington DC to make up the US federal government the countries in the EU send folks to Brussels to make up the Federal EU government.
The big deal to the EU with the UK not leaving is that the UK will be chock full of still EU citizens and the EU is completely unwilling to have EU citizens who aren't represented.
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Unfortunately, much like the MPs voting against No Deal as if that actually solves/accomplishes anything, not wanting to hear about it/wanting it to just be over already doesn't help or stop anything from happening. Only voting to Revoke - to do something - does that.
Yeah, it's a serious danger. There is a growing number of people of the viewpoint 'just get on with it', and they don't really care if it's deal, no deal, or no brexit. They'll complain about it regardless.
Spool, please do not give these people ideas.
It's a bit late for that, they had insufferable performative nationalism down to a fine art when Texas was still north mexico.
I’m really hoping history remembers these chuckleheads as fondly as I think of them now. Especially Boris.
It's just that the option to, you know, not go through with it, to call it off, is still right there.. Just being ignored.
It's the stated position of various MPs, it's a possibility of a post-confirmatory referendum...
This kind of feels like a combination of pictures for the history books.
I vomited in my mouth a little when he compared Theresa May to the T-1000.
The judges rule that the metaphor stands.
Apparently just enough time for a referendum...if people are quick.
Every delay makes Brexit less likely.
I think if a referendum were to happen the EU would happily grant another extension to let it finish.
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BBC's Europe editor:
Unknown as yet if there will be a referendum, that's the big question, or one of them. There will be EU Parliament elections, at least, but domestically... who knows? I assume May will limp along for now, but...
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Edit - This is more doom & gloom than I meant for it to sound; I meant to emphasize that they need a plan, not indefinite time without any plan. Either form a plan and do it or preferably cancel the whole idea of leaving the EU.
I think this is the way they'll limit the interference some ERG nutters have suggested we participate in if we don't get our way.
Pretty clever move really from the EU. Then again our government are so bereft of competent politicians I'm easily impressed.
The whole thing is an enormous disaster, but I think this is the only path that could still potentially result in Remain happening. So I think dragging it out is worth it for the possibility of a decent outcome, as wasteful as the whole mess has been.
For the last two years we've had the Tories arguing that they can get a Brexit that their party supports, with the help of Northern Ireland. And when that failed we had the Tories saying that the other side will blink (either the EU on the withdrawal agreement or Labour on the also the Withdrawal agreement) whilst the DUP had their back. Don't sell the indicative votes short - Ken Clark and the Custom Union failing by 3 votes is why things have changed, but those were always the starting point rather than the end. We know what kind of thing might get supported, and what would convince people to vote otherwise.
There's no doubt that's failed, and May has had a vote of no confidence called on her by the Hard Brexiteers - and then won. No one is going to step into the hot seat to deliver a hard brexit, and it doesn't have majority support within the Tories.
May is now in apparently serious talks with other parties, and Parliament has shown that it can go around Government if it has to by getting the first backbencher legislation passed in the history of the UK.
Just because an apparent deal isn't here, doesn't mean things are categorically in a different place than before Christmas. And that's before you even bring the various polling into the issue.
There will be elections (European), which will gauge the public mood alongside all the polling that will happen alongside this.
Stuff is finally happening, it's the polar opposite of more of the same or nothing happening. It's the stuff that should have been happening before the referendum or before article 50 was invoked. But it'll still take time - some would say two years seems a decent original guess to be honest.
Extending it out to October lets more voices get heard on the issue, means the ERG/hard Brexit minority get diluted back to closer to the volume they represent (even if that's still irresponsible), lets you start the chain of events that could put this to a public vote so the current Brexiting population of the UK gets a say - and prevents a global recession No Deal would cause.
There's very little reason not to grant an extension if things are happening, especially when they are the things that should have happened so long ago.
[cheat edit]There has to be no greater irony that spellcheck suggesting "Brevity" for "Brexit".
[Second cheat edit]I wonder if we're now looking at Legacy May - "the PM who lost her party for the sake of the country", in the more favourable history books that start end of 2018 rather than dwell much earlier than that.
I reckon the ball is still in the court of the hard right euroskeptic wing of the Tory party - they could end this right now if they declared themselves Bluekip and no-confidence'd everyone who didn't advocate for proportional representation. That not happening is the only reason for the delay, and UKIP vs Brexit party in the EU elections is what's going to change that one way or the other.
They've either concluded that No Deal is a worse outcome than the uncertainty around Brexit with a chance that it'll happen anyway, or they're confident that it'll eventually fizzle out and result in a remain.
It’s not a very important country most of the time
http://steamcommunity.com/id/mortious
The two deadlines are kind of procedurally based - are we still acting in good faith (IT'D BETTER NOT BE BORIS COMING BACK HERE) on June 30th, and what's the next decision point we have to make where the UK gets reinstalled at some element in the EU government. It's minimising involvement without setting up a No Deal scenario - far from a vote of confidence for Remain squeaking in, or they'd have backed Greece's 2022 plan.
Or it's just some meat to throw Macron, knowing that October is enough to see something that'd suggest a longer extension (i.e. to start a referendum then or because parties are still coping with the last election).
broadly it is as expected although the exact date is a little shorter than mooted december
brussels reporter quoting tusk
guardian brussels correspondent
same thing from merkel
also im going to be maximally smug that my prediction we would get a long extension from a few months ago has paid off suck it people who flamed my hopes and dreams... we can all be a unicorn.... believe in yourself...
Also if you're US - generally Government = Executive, Parliament = Congress.
Fact that the leader of the main party in the commons is also the head of the Executive means the lines are a lot more blurred than you are used to, but it's kind of that if you assume that you always win presidency and congress at the same time.
The Government and the voting representatives are very different things at the moment.
So the plan is to just keep granting extensions until the UK finally gets it shit together or they just revoke and be done with it.
on her way out, but there as chancellor until 2021 - she has confirmed she will not seek re-election
Last I heard was "not that good" but that was months ago and I don't really pay attention to german politics.
Unless a general election happens she cannot be legally ousted until December
Just think how many meaningful votes we can fit into six months
Like states send folks to Washington DC to make up the US federal government the countries in the EU send folks to Brussels to make up the Federal EU government.
The big deal to the EU with the UK not leaving is that the UK will be chock full of still EU citizens and the EU is completely unwilling to have EU citizens who aren't represented.