Club PA 2.0 has arrived! If you'd like to access some extra PA content and help support the forums, check it out at patreon.com/ClubPA
The image size limit has been raised to 1mb! Anything larger than that should be linked to. This is a HARD limit, please do not abuse it.
Our new Indie Games subforum is now open for business in G&T. Go and check it out, you might land a code for a free game. If you're developing an indie game and want to post about it, follow these directions. If you don't, he'll break your legs! Hahaha! Seriously though.
Our rules have been updated and given their own forum. Go and look at them! They are nice, and there may be new ones that you didn't know about! Hooray for rules! Hooray for The System! Hooray for Conforming!

Pax West badge date speculation

12346»

Posts

  • mcdermottmcdermott Registered User regular
    edited May 31
    Honestly, there are three main fundamental differences between PAX today and PAX the first time I went (2009):

    Price. About half the the daily rate increase can be chalked up to inflation. A huge part of the price...the high full weekend rate...can be chalked up to nearly eliminating the full weekend discount, sensible for a show that sells out. A portion is, arguably, some gouging by ReedPOP. But less than some think.

    Size. For all the talk of the space streaming services and vendors take up today, I don’t think we’ve *lost* much if any space for “the good stuff.” In 2009 the main theater and expo hall, in their entirety, took up the space the fourth floor expo hall occupied today. The other theaters were 100% contained in the WSCC. Tabletop space was a bit larger in the WSCC than it is today, but that was all of it. The entire convention was, IIRC, fully contained in the WSCC and Annex across the street. So while the infiltration of “poor” content has pushed some of the things I like further apart, for the most part they’re still there; the entire convention is just substantially larger.

    Novelty. I’ve been going for ten years now. Shit just isn’t new anymore. This is a huge part of it, I think.


    There are some other minor differences. Major publishers seem to be spending less effort on the convention floor, either passing entirely or doing things off-site. That’s fine, that was always the easiest stuff to find without an expo hall anyway. I still got to demo a bunch of stuff last year, from AAA studio content to indie stuff to VR. I still picked up several offbeat games this year that I saw at...and arguably because of...PAX. I still had fun at BYOC. And for all the talk of things that are offsite and don’t require a badge, they wouldn’t exist if the con wasn’t there. World of Tanks wouldn’t have had a tank in a a parking lot crushing a cabinet full of snow globes and handing out free beer if *nobody* was buying badges. Yeah, just like with SDCC, you can freeload some cool events without buying a ticket. But don’t make the mistake of thinking the con didn’t make those events happen.

    mcdermott on
    IncreaseBluevespachica
  • YoungFreyYoungFrey Registered User regular
    mcdermott wrote: »
    Honestly, there are three main fundamental differences between PAX today and PAX the first time I went (2009):

    Price. About half the the daily rate increase can be chalked up to inflation. A huge part of the price...the high full weekend rate...can be chalked up to nearly eliminating the full weekend discount, sensible for a show that sells out. A portion is, arguably, some gouging by ReedPOP. But less than some think.

    Size. For all the talk of the space streaming services and vendors take up today, I don’t think we’ve *lost* much if any space for “the good stuff.” In 2009 the main theater and expo hall, in their entirety, took up the space the fourth floor expo hall occupied today. The other theaters were 100% contained in the WSCC. Tabletop space was a bit larger in the WSCC than it is today, but that was all of it. The entire convention was, IIRC, fully contained in the WSCC and Annex across the street. So while the infiltration of “poor” content has pushed some of the things I like further apart, for the most part they’re still there; the entire convention is just substantially larger.

    Novelty. I’ve been going for ten years now. Shit just isn’t new anymore. This is a huge part of it, I think.


    There are some other minor differences. Major publishers seem to be spending less effort on the convention floor, either passing entirely or doing things off-site. That’s fine, that was always the easiest stuff to find without an expo hall anyway. I still got to demo a bunch of stuff last year, from AAA studio content to indie stuff to VR. I still picked up several offbeat games this year that I saw at...and arguably because of...PAX. I still had fun at BYOC. And for all the talk of things that are offsite and don’t require a badge, they wouldn’t exist if the con wasn’t there. World of Tanks wouldn’t have had a tank in a a parking lot crushing a cabinet full of snow globes and handing out free beer if *nobody* was buying badges. Yeah, just like with SDCC, you can freeload some cool events without buying a ticket. But don’t make the mistake of thinking the con didn’t make those events happen.

    Inflation does not account for much of the 2009 - 2019 price increase. Looking at single badges, an 8.4% inflation rate would be needed each year to get the 87% price increase. An online inflation calculator tells me the total inflation has been 19.1%, which would have made badges cost $35.73 each. So inflation is like 1/5th of the increase.

  • mcdermottmcdermott Registered User regular
    YoungFrey wrote: »
    mcdermott wrote: »
    Honestly, there are three main fundamental differences between PAX today and PAX the first time I went (2009):

    Price. About half the the daily rate increase can be chalked up to inflation. A huge part of the price...the high full weekend rate...can be chalked up to nearly eliminating the full weekend discount, sensible for a show that sells out. A portion is, arguably, some gouging by ReedPOP. But less than some think.

    Size. For all the talk of the space streaming services and vendors take up today, I don’t think we’ve *lost* much if any space for “the good stuff.” In 2009 the main theater and expo hall, in their entirety, took up the space the fourth floor expo hall occupied today. The other theaters were 100% contained in the WSCC. Tabletop space was a bit larger in the WSCC than it is today, but that was all of it. The entire convention was, IIRC, fully contained in the WSCC and Annex across the street. So while the infiltration of “poor” content has pushed some of the things I like further apart, for the most part they’re still there; the entire convention is just substantially larger.

    Novelty. I’ve been going for ten years now. Shit just isn’t new anymore. This is a huge part of it, I think.


    There are some other minor differences. Major publishers seem to be spending less effort on the convention floor, either passing entirely or doing things off-site. That’s fine, that was always the easiest stuff to find without an expo hall anyway. I still got to demo a bunch of stuff last year, from AAA studio content to indie stuff to VR. I still picked up several offbeat games this year that I saw at...and arguably because of...PAX. I still had fun at BYOC. And for all the talk of things that are offsite and don’t require a badge, they wouldn’t exist if the con wasn’t there. World of Tanks wouldn’t have had a tank in a a parking lot crushing a cabinet full of snow globes and handing out free beer if *nobody* was buying badges. Yeah, just like with SDCC, you can freeload some cool events without buying a ticket. But don’t make the mistake of thinking the con didn’t make those events happen.

    Inflation does not account for much of the 2009 - 2019 price increase. Looking at single badges, an 8.4% inflation rate would be needed each year to get the 87% price increase. An online inflation calculator tells me the total inflation has been 19.1%, which would have made badges cost $35.73 each. So inflation is like 1/5th of the increase.

    Badges were $35 in 2009 though? Don’t have my program handy, but basing on this site:

    https://www.geekwire.com/2015/pax-prime-prices-hit-a-record-high-as-organizers-eliminate-all-weekend-passes/

    Inflation puts $35 in 2009 at about $42 in 2019. Per BLS.gov. So actually just shy of a third of the price difference in single day badges ($57 today, a $22 difference from 2009) is pure inflation. So “half” was inaccurate, though wasn’t intended to mean “exactly half” anyway. That’s still a pretty substantial portion.

    Further, it’s arguable that an event that sells out in minutes...which for years this did...is underpriced anyway. That doesn’t mean you jack the rates to Rolling Stones levels. But it does, arguably, justify *some* portion of that other 2/3. After adjusting for inflation PAX costs $15 more a day, to ReedPOP, than it did in 2009. That doesn’t seem entirely absurd to me.

  • YoungFreyYoungFrey Registered User regular
    mcdermott wrote: »
    YoungFrey wrote: »
    mcdermott wrote: »
    Honestly, there are three main fundamental differences between PAX today and PAX the first time I went (2009):

    Price. About half the the daily rate increase can be chalked up to inflation. A huge part of the price...the high full weekend rate...can be chalked up to nearly eliminating the full weekend discount, sensible for a show that sells out. A portion is, arguably, some gouging by ReedPOP. But less than some think.

    Size. For all the talk of the space streaming services and vendors take up today, I don’t think we’ve *lost* much if any space for “the good stuff.” In 2009 the main theater and expo hall, in their entirety, took up the space the fourth floor expo hall occupied today. The other theaters were 100% contained in the WSCC. Tabletop space was a bit larger in the WSCC than it is today, but that was all of it. The entire convention was, IIRC, fully contained in the WSCC and Annex across the street. So while the infiltration of “poor” content has pushed some of the things I like further apart, for the most part they’re still there; the entire convention is just substantially larger.

    Novelty. I’ve been going for ten years now. Shit just isn’t new anymore. This is a huge part of it, I think.


    There are some other minor differences. Major publishers seem to be spending less effort on the convention floor, either passing entirely or doing things off-site. That’s fine, that was always the easiest stuff to find without an expo hall anyway. I still got to demo a bunch of stuff last year, from AAA studio content to indie stuff to VR. I still picked up several offbeat games this year that I saw at...and arguably because of...PAX. I still had fun at BYOC. And for all the talk of things that are offsite and don’t require a badge, they wouldn’t exist if the con wasn’t there. World of Tanks wouldn’t have had a tank in a a parking lot crushing a cabinet full of snow globes and handing out free beer if *nobody* was buying badges. Yeah, just like with SDCC, you can freeload some cool events without buying a ticket. But don’t make the mistake of thinking the con didn’t make those events happen.

    Inflation does not account for much of the 2009 - 2019 price increase. Looking at single badges, an 8.4% inflation rate would be needed each year to get the 87% price increase. An online inflation calculator tells me the total inflation has been 19.1%, which would have made badges cost $35.73 each. So inflation is like 1/5th of the increase.

    Badges were $35 in 2009 though? Don’t have my program handy, but basing on this site:

    https://www.geekwire.com/2015/pax-prime-prices-hit-a-record-high-as-organizers-eliminate-all-weekend-passes/

    Inflation puts $35 in 2009 at about $42 in 2019. Per BLS.gov. So actually just shy of a third of the price difference in single day badges ($57 today, a $22 difference from 2009) is pure inflation. So “half” was inaccurate, though wasn’t intended to mean “exactly half” anyway. That’s still a pretty substantial portion.

    Further, it’s arguable that an event that sells out in minutes...which for years this did...is underpriced anyway. That doesn’t mean you jack the rates to Rolling Stones levels. But it does, arguably, justify *some* portion of that other 2/3. After adjusting for inflation PAX costs $15 more a day, to ReedPOP, than it did in 2009. That doesn’t seem entirely absurd to me.

    The most complete spreadsheet I know of says $30.

  • mcdermottmcdermott Registered User regular
    edited May 31
    Following your link, we’re both right. The spreadsheet links to an archived page, detailing that tickets were $35 (which geek wire presumably based on) but with a $5 discount for early registration.

    Since badges sold out a few days prior to the end of the discount, only early registration was available, so all badges sold for $30. But theoretically, face value was $35.

    And of course, the following year it was $35.

    Edit: And $35 in 2010, when most would argue PAX was still “good,” and Khoo was (IIRC) still largely involved still comes to $41 today.

    mcdermott on
  • every day's greatevery day's great Registered User regular
    edited June 1
    Can't believe badges are still available, for the first time in years.

    every day's great on
    Dracilkirbykandy
  • YoungFreyYoungFrey Registered User regular
    Can't believe badges are still available, for the first time in years.

    Friday and Sunday. In 2017 Monday took 49 days, and it didn't sell out last year. This year they added a new hotel, so I assume that means additional capacity. Still it hasn't been since 2011 that Friday and especially Sunday took this long.

  • solomon123solomon123 Registered User regular
    mcdermott wrote: »
    havok978 wrote: »
    Am I crazy, or has it not sold out yet? This feels weird

    It makes sense. Half of what made it sell out was the fear that it would sell out. So people scrambled and bought all the tickets as fast as they could.

    Once that fear is broken...and last year it was...the attitude changes. For like five or six years I’ve instantly bought the max for all days, because I wanted to make sure all my friends could make it. And until last year, I’ve had no trouble finding friends or friends of friends to buy those badges.

    Last year IIRC wound up with Friday, Sunday, and Monday badges I couldn’t even resell online for face. Nobody cared. So this year? I bought one four day for me, and one single day for the girlfriend, and that was it.

    It’s also probably that demand itself is waning, due to both multiple conventions and changes to this one.

    Attitudes have nothing to do with it. Scalping has everything to do with it. The increase in badge prices has hit equilibrium. Scalpers no longer purchase max amounts because reselling is not worth the time and effort anymore. It's no longer profitable. At the current price point scalpers are lucky to break even off Ebay/Craigslist resales after fees and shipping. As a result, the supply is there now. And because the supply is there now, people are only buying what they need, since getting rid of extra badges is harder than ever since you can buy them legitly on the PAX site to this day.

    The only profitable day that still has high demand from both PAX goers and scalpers is Saturday.

    xg81x9uysw01.png
  • YoungFreyYoungFrey Registered User regular
    edited June 17
    Sunday badges just sold out this morning. Friday and Monday are still available and don't show as "low" yet. So I thought I'd post the plots I make of the sellout times again. These are log plots, so each major tick on the y-axis is 10 times bigger than the previous one. And they are of the time to sell out in minutes. I didn't plot 2019 All-Day passes because it looks odd, but imagine there is a small dot a little below the Saturday point.
    J2ATI7i.png

    My guess is that Friday won't sell out this year. Based on the fact that in 2018 Friday took about 8 times longer to run out than Sunday. And if you multiple 2019's Sunday time by 8 you get a sellout date of October 24th. I know it's a crude estimate, but I'm just making a guess. It's interesting to me, because historically West and East sellouts follow a notably different pattern, but this year they look more similar than different. You have two days not (or nearly) selling out, one that takes quite awhile, and one in high demand that goes very fast.
    6dImS6G.png

    <edit> Well, shut my mouth. Right after I wrote this, Friday badges started showing as "low". I rescind my above prediction that they won't sell out.

    YoungFrey on
  • IncreaseBlueIncreaseBlue Registered User regular
    I think you were probably on the right track but then the info got dropped that Cyberpunk would be showed there and spurred some people. :D

    Dr.Rocktipus
Sign In or Register to comment.