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The 2020 Democratic Primary

enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
edited August 8 in Debate and/or Discourse
What: The second round of Democratic Party Presidential Primary Debates
Where: The Fox Theater in Detroit, Michigan, broadcast on CNN and their various affiliate networks
When: 8 PM Eastern, 5 PM Pacific July 30 (Tonight!) and July 31
Moderators: Dana Bash, Don Lemon, and Jake Tapper (GROSS)

Any candidates drop out of the clown car since last time?

Eric Swalwell is out to run for Congress again.

Anybody jump in?

Tom Steyer, billionaire busybody and pro-impeachment fundraiser has gotten in. He's promised to spend 100 million of his own money and is spending like mad on Facebook to try to get the donor threshhold met for the next round of the debates. He has no real platform or reason to run and could be doing so much more by say, giving the max to a ton of states legislative candidates. But like most of the Democratic Party he is focused on the White House.

Who Qualified for These Debates?

Everybody who did last time except for Swalwell (obviously), who has been replaced by Steve Bullock, the term limited Governor of Montana.

What's been going on in the race since last time?

Biden has been trying to recover from Harris' attack on busing. He's been forced to actually campaign for the nomination instead of just assuming he's going to win. Polling in general has been tighter since the last debate, though Harris' massive bounce has been fading and it appears Warren has moved into second place, ahead of her and Sanders. Biden still leads. Harris I think has the cleanest non-Biden path to the nomination, if she can consolidate black voters behind her. She got the endorsement of the organization for Michigan's black legislators yesterday, for example. I'm still behind Warren, who continues to slowly increase her share of the vote, though she'll probably need a big jump at some point to actually win. Or to outperform her national numbers in Iowa/New Hampshire which is certainly possible given how much she's invested in those states.

How were the debate participants chosen this time?

Same qualifications as last night, 1% in three polls from approved firms OR 65k donors. Polling was prioritized, so Gravel was not invited despite having 65k donors. CNN aired a big dumb NBA draft lottery type show to actually pick the nights each candidate would be picked. The top four (Biden/Warren/Sanders/Harris) were separated into one tier and then split up, then the next six (Buttigieg, O'Rourke, Klobuchar, Booker, Yang, Castro), and the final ten were sprinkled throughout.

Who's in the July 30 Debate?
Bernie Sanders
Elizabeth Warren
Pete Buttigieg
Beto O’Rourke
Amy Klobuchar
John Hickenlooper
Tim Ryan
John Delaney
Marianne Williamson
Steve Bullock

Basically a whole bunch of lame moderates and then Bernie and Warren at the top. Buttigieg's national numbers re down into the mid single digits, though he does poll better in the early states. You'll probably see some ineffectual attacks on Bernie and Warren from Hickenlooper and Delaney especially. Everything out of the Sanders and Warren campaigns has been about how they're friends and will not be attacking each other tonight.

Who's in the July 31 Debate?
Joe Biden
Kamala Harris
Cory Booker
Andrew Yang
Julián Castro
Tulsi Gabbard
Kirsten Gillibrand
Jay Inslee
Michael Bennet
Bill de Blasio

Biden vs. Harris, round 2! Basically everybody's still coming after Joe as the frontrunner. We'll see if he does any better this time. Both of the candidates who are at least 1/4 to be Fox News pundits by the next presidential cycle are here, so that's annoying. Castro did well last time and I'm rooting for him to repeat that.

Which of the moderators is most likely to give a Chuck Todd-esque performance?

Bash or Tapper. They're both awful. Tapper's sometimes good at mocking Trump, but hates the left pretty passionately. He's almost guaranteed to ask Sanders some sort of question about being a bad Jew for not supporting Israel. And they'll both ask Warren and Sanders some disingenuous nonsense about massive spending blowing up the deficit. Lemon is kind of um, clueless a lot of the time, but not actively objectionable.

Are we going to trim the damn field at any point?

Yes, the next debate in September, will require candidates to poll at 2% in three polls AND have 130k donors. Booker became the I think sixth person to meet those qualifications earlier this week. Should stay there give or take Yang, Castro, Klobuchar, and O'Rourke. You would also imagine some of these people will drop out if they don't push their numbers after this debate, especially the ones who have a House seat to defend next fall (Gabbard sort of, Ryan, Moulton) or the ones whose campaigns are a rolling tire fire and are trying to maintain some respectability (Hickenlooper). Unfortunately, the one being propped up by the GOP (Williamson) probably won't be leaving us any time soon, but will hopefully be leaving the debate stage after tonight.

Herbert Hoover got 40% of the vote in 1932. Friendly reminder.
Warren 2020
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Posts

  • wanderingwandering Registered User regular
    Harris when she found out she'll be sharing a stage with Biden again:

    c8scw06qqtk8.gif

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  • TuminTumin Registered User regular
    Yang qualified for third debate yesterday, fyi.

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  • KoopahTroopahKoopahTroopah The koopas, the troopas. Philadelphia, PARegistered User regular
    I thought more candidates would have dropped by now, but maybe not. We actually have the same amount?

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  • Man in the MistsMan in the Mists Registered User regular
    It'll be interesting to see how Sanders and Warren make themselves distinct from each other.

  • AthenorAthenor Battle Hardened Optimist The Skies of HiigaraRegistered User regular
    Oh man. I thought that Biden was going tonight.

    I am interested on if Sanders will make a real argument to why it should be hem. His "I started a movement, I can lead that movement" seems weak compared to.. well, to Warren whom I am rooting for, to be honest.

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  • enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    I thought more candidates would have dropped by now, but maybe not. We actually have the same amount?

    Yep, still 24/25 depending if you count Vincent Adultman.

    Herbert Hoover got 40% of the vote in 1932. Friendly reminder.
    Warren 2020
  • MarathonMarathon Registered User regular
    I thought more candidates would have dropped by now, but maybe not. We actually have the same amount?

    The higher bar for the third debate is likely when we’ll see many of the stragglers drop off. Less than half the field has qualified for it at this point, and it should be a real sign that things just aren’t working for your campaign if you can’t make the threshold.

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  • SleepSleep Registered User regular
    Honestly I wanna know what the lady with all the plans says in response to the lady that says we need something other than plans.

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  • Stabbity StyleStabbity Style Warning: Mothership Reporting Richland, WARegistered User regular
    Man, so much primary stuff has gone down since the last thread.

    Biden says he's gonna be "less polite" during the debate.
    Harris came out with a healthcare plan since the last debate that's gotten mixed reviews.
    Mueller saying Trump could be charged after office (this is something I'd like to see asked of the candidates).
    Trump has quadrupled down on racist rhetoric, with his attacks on the Squad and Baltimore.
    Concentration camps got funded (I don't think any of the candidates voted for it).

    Also, the lineup tonight seems pretty interesting. You've got both of the heavy left-wingers with Warren and Sanders, as well as both of the inexperienced charismatic hopefuls with Beto and Buttigieg.

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  • PhasenPhasen Let's Disrupt the 2020 ElectionRegistered User regular
    Man, so much primary stuff has gone down since the last thread.

    Biden says he's gonna be "less polite" during the debate.
    Harris came out with a healthcare plan since the last debate that's gotten mixed reviews.
    Mueller saying Trump could be charged after office (this is something I'd like to see asked of the candidates).
    Trump has quadrupled down on racist rhetoric, with his attacks on the Squad and Baltimore.
    Concentration camps got funded (I don't think any of the candidates voted for it).

    Also, the lineup tonight seems pretty interesting. You've got both of the heavy left-wingers with Warren and Sanders, as well as both of the inexperienced charismatic hopefuls with Beto and Buttigieg.

    Harris's college loan forgiveness plan seems built around exactly 3 people and I dont know what the campaign was thinking releasing that publicly.

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  • ElendilElendil Registered User regular
    Tapper's sometimes good at mocking Trump, but hates the left pretty passionately. He's almost guaranteed to ask Sanders some sort of question about being a bad Jew for not supporting Israel. And they'll both ask Warren and Sanders some disingenuous nonsense about massive spending blowing up the deficit.
    hopefully Sanders drops another one of these when it inevitably happens


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  • JragghenJragghen Registered User regular
    Quinnipac stirring the pot: https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3635
    Former Vice President Joseph Biden reverses his slump following the first Democratic presidential debate and now leads the pack with 34 percent of Democrats and independent voters who lean Democratic, according to a Quinnipiac University National Poll released today. Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren has 15 percent, with 12 percent for California Sen. Kamala Harris and 11 percent for Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders.

    This compares to results of a July 2 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe- ack) University National Poll, showing Biden with 22 percent, Harris with 20 percent, Warren with 14 percent and Sanders with 13 percent.

    In today's results:

    Biden gets 53 percent of black Democrats, with 8 percent for Sanders, 7 percent for Harris and 4 percent for Warren;
    Women Democrats go 34 percent for Biden, 15 percent for Warren, 14 percent for Harris and 10 percent for Sanders;
    Very liberal Democrats go 29 percent for Warren, 25 percent for Biden, 15 percent for Sanders and 12 percent for Harris;
    Somewhat liberal Democrats go 34 percent for Biden, 16 percent for Sanders, 14 percent for Warren and 10 percent for Harris;
    Moderate/conservative Democrats go 39 percent for Biden, 12 percent for Harris, 9 percent for Warren and 8 percent for Sanders.

    Rounding out the Democratic field are South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg with 6 percent, and former U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke and entrepreneur Andrew Yang with 2 percent each. There are four candidates with 1 percent each and 14 candidates at less than 1 percent each.

    So Harris's bounce looks to have subsided somewhat. Not sure whether that will make her more aggressive.

    I'll be skipping watching again, but still paying a bit of attention.

    For whatever it's worth, my sister (who is turning into more of a junkie than I ever was - like she read the full Mueller Report and watches CSPAN now) is apparently in the "I thought she was super out there but every time I hear Warren talk I like her" camp (which also underscores the hill Warren has - public perception of her isn't amazing outside of those who pay attention), and my mother is basically asking me who she should be rooting for at this point (which I did the responsible thing and gave a listing based off of her personal priorities, but she's 100% on the 'not Biden' train, too). That's about the extent of my touching on external-to-me politics feels.

    wanderingFencingsax
  • enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    For whatever it's worth, my sister (who is turning into more of a junkie than I ever was - like she read the full Mueller Report and watches CSPAN now) is apparently in the "I thought she was super out there but every time I hear Warren talk I like her" camp (which also underscores the hill Warren has - public perception of her isn't amazing outside of those who pay attention)

    Warren is basically the only candidate I've ever seen whose unfavorables go down as she becomes more well known.

    Herbert Hoover got 40% of the vote in 1932. Friendly reminder.
    Warren 2020
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  • Stabbity StyleStabbity Style Warning: Mothership Reporting Richland, WARegistered User regular
    For whatever it's worth, my sister (who is turning into more of a junkie than I ever was - like she read the full Mueller Report and watches CSPAN now) is apparently in the "I thought she was super out there but every time I hear Warren talk I like her" camp (which also underscores the hill Warren has - public perception of her isn't amazing outside of those who pay attention)

    Warren is basically the only candidate I've ever seen whose unfavorables go down as she becomes more well known.

    Probably because she's fighting off some of that racist "Pocahontas" crap.

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  • TicaldfjamTicaldfjam Hillsboro, ORRegistered User regular
    edited July 30
    For whatever it's worth, my sister (who is turning into more of a junkie than I ever was - like she read the full Mueller Report and watches CSPAN now) is apparently in the "I thought she was super out there but every time I hear Warren talk I like her" camp (which also underscores the hill Warren has - public perception of her isn't amazing outside of those who pay attention)

    Warren is basically the only candidate I've ever seen whose unfavorables go down as she becomes more well known.

    Probably because she's fighting off some of that racist "Pocahontas" crap.


    In addition to that, the Beltway Lobbiest hate Warren the most. They fear her out of any of the Democratic candidates, because she actually has teeth to attempt to limit their influence if she where the futue POTUS.

    Ticaldfjam on
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  • TheBigEasyTheBigEasy Registered User regular
    I think even people like Buttigieg and O'Rourke should think long and hard about continuing to run after these debates. I really doubt, that either of them will make significant gains in the polling numbers, even if they perform spectacular in the debates.

    And they (and probably a few others) should then run for Senate or the House.

    Given that I neither like Sanders nor Biden as a candidate - I'd love to see an eventual Harris/Warren or Warren/Harris democratic ticket.

    BucketmanVeagle
  • Stabbity StyleStabbity Style Warning: Mothership Reporting Richland, WARegistered User regular
    TheBigEasy wrote: »
    I think even people like Buttigieg and O'Rourke should think long and hard about continuing to run after these debates. I really doubt, that either of them will make significant gains in the polling numbers, even if they perform spectacular in the debates.

    And they (and probably a few others) should then run for Senate or the House.

    Given that I neither like Sanders nor Biden as a candidate - I'd love to see an eventual Harris/Warren or Warren/Harris democratic ticket.

    I mean, as long as they continue to qualify, I imagine they'll stay in. Pretty much the whole reason they're running, I imagine, is to raise their national profile for later. I think they'll get to the smaller debates with the main candidates at the very least. If they drop out now that basically puts them on the same level as people like Yang or that weird Oprah crystals lady.

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  • The SauceThe Sauce Fleur de Alys Registered User regular
    Candidates under the top 4 are mostly vying for a VP or cabinet position. Looking across them, they're mostly a set of individuals who have gotten as high as they can without making a move like this.

    Buttigieg would struggle to get a governorship or Congress position in conservative Indiana, O'Rourke would need to move to another state or somehow stay relevant while waiting a decade or so for a Texas win to be feasible, and Castro has already served in the cabinet (and appears to be gunning for VP).

    Various others are Senators or Congresspeople unlikely to win the Democrat leadership mantle in either chamber, Governors who are at term limits, and then a miscellaneous set of single-issue advocates (Yang, Inslee) just trying to make sure their thing gets discussed on a national stage by an advocate.

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  • Styrofoam SammichStyrofoam Sammich WANT. 5386-8443-8937Registered User regular
    Biden gaining in polls again is extremely on brand for this timeline

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  • TheBigEasyTheBigEasy Registered User regular
    Oh yeah - I forgot about them knowing to having no chance and vying for something else.

    Makes sense.

  • TryCatcherTryCatcher Registered User regular
    I think that not putting Biden, Harris, Bernie and Warren on the same stage is more about making this thing longer (and propping up Yas Kween Harris) than is about anything else. Hell, at least the Republican football team ordered people by polls.

  • AbsoluteZeroAbsoluteZero The new film by Quentin Koopantino Registered User regular
    Biden gaining in polls again is extremely on brand for this timeline

    I've been trying to make peace with the possibility that Biden will be our nominee, and mentally prepare myself to vote for him in the general. Hope for the best, plan for the worst!

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  • Styrofoam SammichStyrofoam Sammich WANT. 5386-8443-8937Registered User regular
    Phasen wrote: »
    Man, so much primary stuff has gone down since the last thread.

    Biden says he's gonna be "less polite" during the debate.
    Harris came out with a healthcare plan since the last debate that's gotten mixed reviews.
    Mueller saying Trump could be charged after office (this is something I'd like to see asked of the candidates).
    Trump has quadrupled down on racist rhetoric, with his attacks on the Squad and Baltimore.
    Concentration camps got funded (I don't think any of the candidates voted for it).

    Also, the lineup tonight seems pretty interesting. You've got both of the heavy left-wingers with Warren and Sanders, as well as both of the inexperienced charismatic hopefuls with Beto and Buttigieg.

    Harris's college loan forgiveness plan seems built around exactly 3 people and I dont know what the campaign was thinking releasing that publicly.

    That really is a bafflingly stupid policy

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  • Styrofoam SammichStyrofoam Sammich WANT. 5386-8443-8937Registered User regular
    Harris's "Medicare for All" plan has something like a 10 year phase in too. She should have tsken a page from Warren's book and just talk about how you have a super progressive plan and dont talk about the details.

    YamiB.tolrag
  • BucketmanBucketman Call me SkraggRegistered User regular
    Harris has completely failed to impress or engage me on any level. She just seems like a less bland Biden.

    Biden is yuck.

    Warren and Sanders I am all in on. They keep saying stuff that resonates with me. I'm just one guy but I can't be the only one who feels lukewarm on Harris

    BrainleechMan in the MistsBloodsheed
  • Fuzzy Cumulonimbus CloudFuzzy Cumulonimbus Cloud bear with us as we do some "rebranding" Registered User regular
    I am firmly Warren/Sanders or Sanders/Warren.

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  • Styrofoam SammichStyrofoam Sammich WANT. 5386-8443-8937Registered User regular
    I am firmly Warren/Sanders or Sanders/Warren.

    Theres no one else even vaguely palatable at this point.

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  • HeartlashHeartlash Registered User regular
    Warren's linchpin revenue mechanism for most of her plans is questionable, but she still has my vote atm. I mostly just want someone who can effectively regulate banks and isn't interested in abject cruelty to migrants.

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  • Stabbity StyleStabbity Style Warning: Mothership Reporting Richland, WARegistered User regular
    I am firmly Warren/Sanders or Sanders/Warren.

    Theres no one else even vaguely palatable at this point.

    Castro or Harris would be a good VP, imo.

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  • BucketmanBucketman Call me SkraggRegistered User regular
    Maybe its just me, but Harris screams "NARC" to me.

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  • JragghenJragghen Registered User regular
    Harris's greatest strength is her ability to be an attack dog in a very pointed manner. It showed when she was in Congressional hearings, too.

    Regardless of anything else, I fully appreciate the sentiment of wanting someone who's not going to be afraid to attack.

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  • MazzyxMazzyx Comedy Gold Registered User regular
    I am firmly Warren/Sanders or Sanders/Warren.

    Theres no one else even vaguely palatable at this point.

    During the primary it is fine to be picky.

    In the end it, all that matters is winning the White House. Nothing else counts more than that.

    I am still in camp Warren. Harris I am good with as well.

    And come next summer no matter who the nominee is, even if its a piece of wood with a mustache stapled on, I will get out and work for them to win the general.

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  • RedTideRedTide Registered User regular
    I am firmly Warren/Sanders or Sanders/Warren.

    Theres no one else even vaguely palatable at this point.

    Castro as a VP pick to both help connect the candidate to latinx voters and also to help pull Texas purple by giving a Democrat from there a high profile

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  • Styrofoam SammichStyrofoam Sammich WANT. 5386-8443-8937Registered User regular
    The long term damage of a Biden presidency would be incalculable

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  • BrainleechBrainleech Registered User regular
    The long term damage of a Biden presidency would be incalculable

    How much worse can it get?

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  • HenroidHenroid Radio Demon Internet HellRegistered User regular
    We have a few hours to put together a drinking game. All's I'm sayin'.

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  • Stabbity StyleStabbity Style Warning: Mothership Reporting Richland, WARegistered User regular
    Henroid wrote: »
    We have a few hours to put together a drinking game. All's I'm sayin'.

    Take a sip every time someone interrupts.

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  • Styrofoam SammichStyrofoam Sammich WANT. 5386-8443-8937Registered User regular
    Brainleech wrote: »
    The long term damage of a Biden presidency would be incalculable

    How much worse can it get?

    Tom Cotton

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  • Stabbity StyleStabbity Style Warning: Mothership Reporting Richland, WARegistered User regular
    Brainleech wrote: »
    The long term damage of a Biden presidency would be incalculable

    How much worse can it get?

    Tom Cotton

    How would a Biden presidency lead to Tom Cotton?

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  • nexuscrawlernexuscrawler Registered User regular
    I look forward to Warren humiliating Bernie

    knitdan
This discussion has been closed.