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The 2020 Democratic Primary
enlightenedbum
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What: The second round of Democratic Party Presidential Primary Debates
Where: The Fox Theater in Detroit, Michigan, broadcast on CNN and their various affiliate networks
When: 8 PM Eastern, 5 PM Pacific July 30 (Tonight!) and July 31
Moderators: Dana Bash, Don Lemon, and Jake Tapper (GROSS)
Any candidates drop out of the clown car since last time?
Eric Swalwell is out to run for Congress again.
Anybody jump in?
Tom Steyer, billionaire busybody and pro-impeachment fundraiser has gotten in. He's promised to spend 100 million of his own money and is spending like mad on Facebook to try to get the donor threshhold met for the next round of the debates. He has no real platform or reason to run and could be doing so much more by say, giving the max to a ton of states legislative candidates. But like most of the Democratic Party he is focused on the White House.
Who Qualified for These Debates?
Everybody who did last time except for Swalwell (obviously), who has been replaced by Steve Bullock, the term limited Governor of Montana.
What's been going on in the race since last time?
Biden has been trying to recover from Harris' attack on busing. He's been forced to actually campaign for the nomination instead of just assuming he's going to win. Polling in general has been tighter since the last debate, though Harris' massive bounce has been fading and it appears Warren has moved into second place, ahead of her and Sanders. Biden still leads. Harris I think has the cleanest non-Biden path to the nomination, if she can consolidate black voters behind her. She got the endorsement of the organization for Michigan's black legislators yesterday, for example. I'm still behind Warren, who continues to slowly increase her share of the vote, though she'll probably need a big jump at some point to actually win. Or to outperform her national numbers in Iowa/New Hampshire which is certainly possible given how much she's invested in those states.
How were the debate participants chosen this time?
Same qualifications as last night, 1% in three polls from approved firms OR 65k donors. Polling was prioritized, so Gravel was not invited despite having 65k donors. CNN aired a big dumb NBA draft lottery type show to actually pick the nights each candidate would be picked. The top four (Biden/Warren/Sanders/Harris) were separated into one tier and then split up, then the next six (Buttigieg, O'Rourke, Klobuchar, Booker, Yang, Castro), and the final ten were sprinkled throughout.
Who's in the July 30 Debate?
Bernie Sanders
Elizabeth Warren
Pete Buttigieg
Beto O’Rourke
Amy Klobuchar
John Hickenlooper
Tim Ryan
John Delaney
Marianne Williamson
Steve Bullock
Basically a whole bunch of lame moderates and then Bernie and Warren at the top. Buttigieg's national numbers re down into the mid single digits, though he does poll better in the early states. You'll probably see some ineffectual attacks on Bernie and Warren from Hickenlooper and Delaney especially. Everything out of the Sanders and Warren campaigns has been about how they're friends and will not be attacking each other tonight.
Who's in the July 31 Debate?
Joe Biden
Kamala Harris
Cory Booker
Andrew Yang
Julián Castro
Tulsi Gabbard
Kirsten Gillibrand
Jay Inslee
Michael Bennet
Bill de Blasio
Biden vs. Harris, round 2! Basically everybody's still coming after Joe as the frontrunner. We'll see if he does any better this time. Both of the candidates who are at least 1/4 to be Fox News pundits by the next presidential cycle are here, so that's annoying. Castro did well last time and I'm rooting for him to repeat that.
Which of the moderators is most likely to give a Chuck Todd-esque performance?
Bash or Tapper. They're both awful. Tapper's sometimes good at mocking Trump, but hates the left pretty passionately. He's almost guaranteed to ask Sanders some sort of question about being a bad Jew for not supporting Israel. And they'll both ask Warren and Sanders some disingenuous nonsense about massive spending blowing up the deficit. Lemon is kind of um, clueless a lot of the time, but not actively objectionable.
Are we going to trim the damn field at any point?
Yes, the next debate in September, will require candidates to poll at 2% in three polls AND have 130k donors. Booker became the I think sixth person to meet those qualifications earlier this week. Should stay there give or take Yang, Castro, Klobuchar, and O'Rourke. You would also imagine some of these people will drop out if they don't push their numbers after this debate, especially the ones who have a House seat to defend next fall (Gabbard sort of, Ryan, Moulton) or the ones whose campaigns are a rolling tire fire and are trying to maintain some respectability (Hickenlooper). Unfortunately, the one being propped up by the GOP (Williamson) probably won't be leaving us any time soon, but will hopefully be leaving the debate stage after tonight.
Where: The Fox Theater in Detroit, Michigan, broadcast on CNN and their various affiliate networks
When: 8 PM Eastern, 5 PM Pacific July 30 (Tonight!) and July 31
Moderators: Dana Bash, Don Lemon, and Jake Tapper (GROSS)
Any candidates drop out of the clown car since last time?
Eric Swalwell is out to run for Congress again.
Anybody jump in?
Tom Steyer, billionaire busybody and pro-impeachment fundraiser has gotten in. He's promised to spend 100 million of his own money and is spending like mad on Facebook to try to get the donor threshhold met for the next round of the debates. He has no real platform or reason to run and could be doing so much more by say, giving the max to a ton of states legislative candidates. But like most of the Democratic Party he is focused on the White House.
Who Qualified for These Debates?
Everybody who did last time except for Swalwell (obviously), who has been replaced by Steve Bullock, the term limited Governor of Montana.
What's been going on in the race since last time?
Biden has been trying to recover from Harris' attack on busing. He's been forced to actually campaign for the nomination instead of just assuming he's going to win. Polling in general has been tighter since the last debate, though Harris' massive bounce has been fading and it appears Warren has moved into second place, ahead of her and Sanders. Biden still leads. Harris I think has the cleanest non-Biden path to the nomination, if she can consolidate black voters behind her. She got the endorsement of the organization for Michigan's black legislators yesterday, for example. I'm still behind Warren, who continues to slowly increase her share of the vote, though she'll probably need a big jump at some point to actually win. Or to outperform her national numbers in Iowa/New Hampshire which is certainly possible given how much she's invested in those states.
How were the debate participants chosen this time?
Same qualifications as last night, 1% in three polls from approved firms OR 65k donors. Polling was prioritized, so Gravel was not invited despite having 65k donors. CNN aired a big dumb NBA draft lottery type show to actually pick the nights each candidate would be picked. The top four (Biden/Warren/Sanders/Harris) were separated into one tier and then split up, then the next six (Buttigieg, O'Rourke, Klobuchar, Booker, Yang, Castro), and the final ten were sprinkled throughout.
Who's in the July 30 Debate?
Bernie Sanders
Elizabeth Warren
Pete Buttigieg
Beto O’Rourke
Amy Klobuchar
John Hickenlooper
Tim Ryan
John Delaney
Marianne Williamson
Steve Bullock
Basically a whole bunch of lame moderates and then Bernie and Warren at the top. Buttigieg's national numbers re down into the mid single digits, though he does poll better in the early states. You'll probably see some ineffectual attacks on Bernie and Warren from Hickenlooper and Delaney especially. Everything out of the Sanders and Warren campaigns has been about how they're friends and will not be attacking each other tonight.
Who's in the July 31 Debate?
Joe Biden
Kamala Harris
Cory Booker
Andrew Yang
Julián Castro
Tulsi Gabbard
Kirsten Gillibrand
Jay Inslee
Michael Bennet
Bill de Blasio
Biden vs. Harris, round 2! Basically everybody's still coming after Joe as the frontrunner. We'll see if he does any better this time. Both of the candidates who are at least 1/4 to be Fox News pundits by the next presidential cycle are here, so that's annoying. Castro did well last time and I'm rooting for him to repeat that.
Which of the moderators is most likely to give a Chuck Todd-esque performance?
Bash or Tapper. They're both awful. Tapper's sometimes good at mocking Trump, but hates the left pretty passionately. He's almost guaranteed to ask Sanders some sort of question about being a bad Jew for not supporting Israel. And they'll both ask Warren and Sanders some disingenuous nonsense about massive spending blowing up the deficit. Lemon is kind of um, clueless a lot of the time, but not actively objectionable.
Are we going to trim the damn field at any point?
Yes, the next debate in September, will require candidates to poll at 2% in three polls AND have 130k donors. Booker became the I think sixth person to meet those qualifications earlier this week. Should stay there give or take Yang, Castro, Klobuchar, and O'Rourke. You would also imagine some of these people will drop out if they don't push their numbers after this debate, especially the ones who have a House seat to defend next fall (Gabbard sort of, Ryan, Moulton) or the ones whose campaigns are a rolling tire fire and are trying to maintain some respectability (Hickenlooper). Unfortunately, the one being propped up by the GOP (Williamson) probably won't be leaving us any time soon, but will hopefully be leaving the debate stage after tonight.
The idea that your vote is a moral statement about you or who you vote for is some backwards ass libertarian nonsense. Your vote is about society. Vote to protect the vulnerable.
enlightenedbum on
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I am interested on if Sanders will make a real argument to why it should be hem. His "I started a movement, I can lead that movement" seems weak compared to.. well, to Warren whom I am rooting for, to be honest.
Yep, still 24/25 depending if you count Vincent Adultman.
The higher bar for the third debate is likely when we’ll see many of the stragglers drop off. Less than half the field has qualified for it at this point, and it should be a real sign that things just aren’t working for your campaign if you can’t make the threshold.
Biden says he's gonna be "less polite" during the debate.
Harris came out with a healthcare plan since the last debate that's gotten mixed reviews.
Mueller saying Trump could be charged after office (this is something I'd like to see asked of the candidates).
Trump has quadrupled down on racist rhetoric, with his attacks on the Squad and Baltimore.
Concentration camps got funded (I don't think any of the candidates voted for it).
Also, the lineup tonight seems pretty interesting. You've got both of the heavy left-wingers with Warren and Sanders, as well as both of the inexperienced charismatic hopefuls with Beto and Buttigieg.
Harris's college loan forgiveness plan seems built around exactly 3 people and I dont know what the campaign was thinking releasing that publicly.
So Harris's bounce looks to have subsided somewhat. Not sure whether that will make her more aggressive.
I'll be skipping watching again, but still paying a bit of attention.
For whatever it's worth, my sister (who is turning into more of a junkie than I ever was - like she read the full Mueller Report and watches CSPAN now) is apparently in the "I thought she was super out there but every time I hear Warren talk I like her" camp (which also underscores the hill Warren has - public perception of her isn't amazing outside of those who pay attention), and my mother is basically asking me who she should be rooting for at this point (which I did the responsible thing and gave a listing based off of her personal priorities, but she's 100% on the 'not Biden' train, too). That's about the extent of my touching on external-to-me politics feels.
Warren is basically the only candidate I've ever seen whose unfavorables go down as she becomes more well known.
Probably because she's fighting off some of that racist "Pocahontas" crap.
In addition to that, the Beltway Lobbiest hate Warren the most. They fear her out of any of the Democratic candidates, because she actually has teeth to attempt to limit their influence if she where the futue POTUS.
And they (and probably a few others) should then run for Senate or the House.
Given that I neither like Sanders nor Biden as a candidate - I'd love to see an eventual Harris/Warren or Warren/Harris democratic ticket.
I mean, as long as they continue to qualify, I imagine they'll stay in. Pretty much the whole reason they're running, I imagine, is to raise their national profile for later. I think they'll get to the smaller debates with the main candidates at the very least. If they drop out now that basically puts them on the same level as people like Yang or that weird Oprah crystals lady.
Buttigieg would struggle to get a governorship or Congress position in conservative Indiana, O'Rourke would need to move to another state or somehow stay relevant while waiting a decade or so for a Texas win to be feasible, and Castro has already served in the cabinet (and appears to be gunning for VP).
Various others are Senators or Congresspeople unlikely to win the Democrat leadership mantle in either chamber, Governors who are at term limits, and then a miscellaneous set of single-issue advocates (Yang, Inslee) just trying to make sure their thing gets discussed on a national stage by an advocate.
Makes sense.
I've been trying to make peace with the possibility that Biden will be our nominee, and mentally prepare myself to vote for him in the general. Hope for the best, plan for the worst!
That really is a bafflingly stupid policy
Biden is yuck.
Warren and Sanders I am all in on. They keep saying stuff that resonates with me. I'm just one guy but I can't be the only one who feels lukewarm on Harris
Theres no one else even vaguely palatable at this point.
Our first game is now available for free on Google Play: Frontier: Isle of the Seven Gods
Castro or Harris would be a good VP, imo.
Regardless of anything else, I fully appreciate the sentiment of wanting someone who's not going to be afraid to attack.
During the primary it is fine to be picky.
In the end it, all that matters is winning the White House. Nothing else counts more than that.
I am still in camp Warren. Harris I am good with as well.
And come next summer no matter who the nominee is, even if its a piece of wood with a mustache stapled on, I will get out and work for them to win the general.
Castro as a VP pick to both help connect the candidate to latinx voters and also to help pull Texas purple by giving a Democrat from there a high profile
Come Overwatch with meeeee
How much worse can it get?
Take a sip every time someone interrupts.
Tom Cotton
How would a Biden presidency lead to Tom Cotton?