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[Hiberno-Britannic Politics] Supremes Reunite For One Last Gig

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Posts

  • Mc zanyMc zany Registered User regular
    Bogart wrote: »
    So, how about that Brexit, eh?

    Discussion of Irish/UK politics goes here. The short version is: bad times.

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  • ChanusChanus Ribbit! Registered User regular
    11 in this case being november

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  • Commander ZoomCommander Zoom Registered User regular
    edited July 31
    Remember, remember...

    Alternatively:
    Do not think about The Event.

    Commander Zoom on
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  • ZekZek Registered User regular
    I dropped off last season, could anyone give a plot synopsis?

  • RMS OceanicRMS Oceanic Registered User regular
    Zek wrote: »
    I dropped off last season, could anyone give a plot synopsis?

    The Doctor regenerated, we've got Colin Baker now

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  • GaryOGaryO Registered User regular
    Zek wrote: »
    I dropped off last season, could anyone give a plot synopsis?

    Ok so extremely simplistic summary
    They finally pried the role of Prime Minister out of Teresa May's cold dead hands. Shes now fucked off to dance in her fields.
    then we got to watch the Conservative party of them spend i dunno, a month, 2 months? deciding between noted Cockwomble Boris Johnson, and Jeremy Hunt who has been notaccidentally called a cunt live on air by nearly every source of news in the country.
    Eventually they decided 'lets appoint the one who we can at least laugh at' and Boris was given his dream job, and the entire country hasn't stopped booing him since.

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  • HenroidHenroid Radio Demon Internet HellRegistered User regular
    Even looking in from the outside, Boris Johnson has demonstrated extreme lacking capability in leading the country, not just the looming Brexit problem. He's been pretty easily challenged and discredited on shit he has to say about Brexit and the irony of him being Prime Minister during this issue is that he can't do his usual "d'oh ho ho I'm such a loveable dope aren't I!" antics to bail him out. Not when you're working with foreign dignitaries.

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  • klemmingklemming Registered User regular
    Oh but you see if we don't get a deal it will all be the fault of the EU and Ireland for not compromising on the essential basis of their laws, so it's not our fault at all.
    They want us to fail to reach an agreement, that's why they're refusing to budge on all their unreasonablebasic common sense demands.

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  • FoefallerFoefaller Registered User regular
    From the previous thread
    Mc zany wrote:
    This makes little sense. The whole opposition to the backstop was that it would prevent trade deals. Or have I got that wrong?

    IIRC the backstop would move the hard border between RoI and North Ireland to North Ireland and the rest of the UK, until either someone invents magical technology that would allow an open border crossing while simultaneously allowing for the UK to enforce their own trade and customs, or when the UK got it's head out if it's ass and agreed to a final deal that wouldn't require a hard border between RoI and North Ireland.

    Tories don't want it because this whole thing is about SOVEREIGNTY and having a treaty that enforces a hard border inside your own country is the exact opposite of that, and, perhaps more importantly, the Unionist DUP that has kept the Tories in power thanks to a supply deal don't want it, because having a hard border with the UK makes it almost inevitable that North Ireland would leave the UK and join Ireland proper, and they don't want to leave the UK.

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  • Red or AliveRed or Alive Registered User regular
    Now, the only deal that would prevent a hard border in NI would almost certainly require something akin to the Norway model, i.e regular payments to the EU for access to the single market and retaining free movement of people from the the UK to the EU (and vice-versa, which makes a mockery of the anti-immigration sentiment that led to the referendum result itself).

    I can’t say the writing’s very good but I can say that it’s certainly gripping.

  • TastyfishTastyfish Registered User regular
    edited July 31
    Foefaller wrote: »
    From the previous thread
    Mc zany wrote:
    This makes little sense. The whole opposition to the backstop was that it would prevent trade deals. Or have I got that wrong?

    IIRC the backstop would move the hard border between RoI and North Ireland to North Ireland and the rest of the UK, until either someone invents magical technology that would allow an open border crossing while simultaneously allowing for the UK to enforce their own trade and customs, or when the UK got it's head out if it's ass and agreed to a final deal that wouldn't require a hard border between RoI and North Ireland.

    Tories don't want it because this whole thing is about SOVEREIGNTY and having a treaty that enforces a hard border inside your own country is the exact opposite of that, and, perhaps more importantly, the Unionist DUP that has kept the Tories in power thanks to a supply deal don't want it, because having a hard border with the UK makes it almost inevitable that North Ireland would leave the UK and join Ireland proper, and they don't want to leave the UK.

    The backstop doesn't move the border anywhere, which is the issue. It just guarantees that if no other arrangement is made, NI exists within a customs union with the Republic of Ireland (and the rest of the EU). The ball is entirely in the UK's court then as to whether Northern Ireland get's treated as part of the EU and Ireland rather than the UK, and the hard border is drawn in the Irish sea - or if the UK basically extends it's 'transition period' indefinitely and adopts the same rules to prevent this border.

    The latter means you're not able to make trade deals as you have to maintain the seamless custom's union with the EU, but at the same time the UK would have no control over any new EU legislation which it would need to adopt. But if you picked the former, you can bet that Scotland and London will want a bite of that action too - and (far more importantly in their mind) the Tories then lose control of the government as the DUP won't support them.

    If the Tories didn't need the DUP to hold onto power, especially if Boris ends up with a majority of 1 on Thursday, then the backstop issue would have been settled way back right after the last election with the "the Irish can go fuck off" strategy.
    Now, the only deal that would prevent a hard border in NI would almost certainly require something akin to the Norway model, i.e regular payments to the EU for access to the single market and retaining free movement of people from the the UK to the EU (and vice-versa, which makes a mockery of the anti-immigration sentiment that led to the referendum result itself).

    I can’t say the writing’s very good but I can say that it’s certainly gripping.
    Not only that, you don't get your Free Port tax havens with the Norway model.

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  • japanjapan Registered User regular
    The opposition to a trade deal from the Irish caucus in the US Congress stems from the fact that, in order for it to be possible, the UK would need to be in violation of the Good Friday Agreement

    It's nothing to do with the backstop per se, what they're saying is that they'll block one of the UK's desired outcomes of a no deal brexit in order to defend the GFA

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  • GoumindongGoumindong Registered User regular
    Well the backstop easentially guarantees that the GFA is not violated so it kinda does?

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  • japanjapan Registered User regular
    edited July 31
    Goumindong wrote: »
    Well the backstop easentially guarantees that the GFA is not violated so it kinda does?

    Yes, but at one remove

    UK says "it's worth the political disruption of a hard border on the island of Ireland to strike a trade deal with the US"
    Irish caucus says "we will block any such deal if there is a hard border" (subtext: because the protection of peace on the island is more important to us than a trade deal)

    It's another one of these things where, in principle, if any of the hard brexiteers touting "alternative arrangements" to the backstop could actually present a workable proposition, there wouldn't be an issue and the backstop wouldn't be required

    However, at this point in time, the backstop is the only workable proposition on the table to avoid a hard border and thus protect the GFA

    japan on
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  • FoefallerFoefaller Registered User regular
    edited July 31
    Tastyfish wrote: »
    Foefaller wrote: »
    From the previous thread
    Mc zany wrote:
    This makes little sense. The whole opposition to the backstop was that it would prevent trade deals. Or have I got that wrong?

    IIRC the backstop would move the hard border between RoI and North Ireland to North Ireland and the rest of the UK, until either someone invents magical technology that would allow an open border crossing while simultaneously allowing for the UK to enforce their own trade and customs, or when the UK got it's head out if it's ass and agreed to a final deal that wouldn't require a hard border between RoI and North Ireland.

    Tories don't want it because this whole thing is about SOVEREIGNTY and having a treaty that enforces a hard border inside your own country is the exact opposite of that, and, perhaps more importantly, the Unionist DUP that has kept the Tories in power thanks to a supply deal don't want it, because having a hard border with the UK makes it almost inevitable that North Ireland would leave the UK and join Ireland proper, and they don't want to leave the UK.

    The backstop doesn't move the border anywhere, which is the issue. It just guarantees that if no other arrangement is made, NI exists within a customs union with the Republic of Ireland (and the rest of the EU). The ball is entirely in the UK's court then as to whether Northern Ireland get's treated as part of the EU and Ireland rather than the UK, and the hard border is drawn in the Irish sea - or if the UK basically extends it's 'transition period' indefinitely and adopts the same rules to prevent this border.

    The latter means you're not able to make trade deals as you have to maintain the seamless custom's union with the EU, but at the same time the UK would have no control over any new EU legislation which it would need to adopt. But if you picked the former, you can bet that Scotland and London will want a bite of that action too - and (far more importantly in their mind) the Tories then lose control of the government as the DUP won't support them.

    If the Tories didn't need the DUP to hold onto power, especially if Boris ends up with a majority of 1 on Thursday, then the backstop issue would have been settled way back right after the last election with the "the Irish can go fuck off" strategy.
    Now, the only deal that would prevent a hard border in NI would almost certainly require something akin to the Norway model, i.e regular payments to the EU for access to the single market and retaining free movement of people from the the UK to the EU (and vice-versa, which makes a mockery of the anti-immigration sentiment that led to the referendum result itself).

    I can’t say the writing’s very good but I can say that it’s certainly gripping.
    Not only that, you don't get your Free Port tax havens with the Norway model.

    I think that's what I said? I possibly should have said "customs border" rather than "hard border" but I'm not really seeing anything in your description of the situation that is more than semantically different from mine.

    I also wouldn't put it pass Boris to call a GE and run on a not-so-subtle "Fuck the Irish" platform if he thought it would get a him a Tory majority/Brexit coalition that would be okay with abandoning North Ireland entirely and therefore make Brexit easier. Even though that would guarantee UK being demoted to Great Britain and have a good chance of being demoted further to become just England (and Wales... maybe).

    Foefaller on
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  • BurnageBurnage Registered User regular


    So this seems like an unequivocally bad sign. Either we're getting No Deal or we've blown £2 billion on fucking nothing.

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  • JazzJazz UKRegistered User regular
    Burnage wrote: »


    So this seems like an unequivocally bad sign. Either we're getting No Deal or we've blown £2 billion on fucking nothing.

    The spirit of Grayling lives on.

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  • SnicketysnickSnicketysnick The Greatest Hype Man in WesterosRegistered User regular
    tbh if we are going to end up with no deal I'd prefer at least some prep work

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  • JazzJazz UKRegistered User regular
    tbh if we are going to end up with no deal I'd prefer at least some prep work

    I wonder how much they can realistically do in three months.

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  • Commander ZoomCommander Zoom Registered User regular
    But Parliament voted against No Deal! That means it can't happen, right?
    :P

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  • japanjapan Registered User regular
    Jazz wrote: »
    tbh if we are going to end up with no deal I'd prefer at least some prep work

    I wonder how much they can realistically do in three months.

    The consensus appears to be "not enough"

    Part of the problem is the sheer unpredictability of second order effects, like the example of national shortages of EU-legal pallets, given that the UK won't be able to stamp their own any more

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  • SnicketysnickSnicketysnick The Greatest Hype Man in WesterosRegistered User regular
    japan wrote: »
    Jazz wrote: »
    tbh if we are going to end up with no deal I'd prefer at least some prep work

    I wonder how much they can realistically do in three months.

    The consensus appears to be "not enough"

    Part of the problem is the sheer unpredictability of second order effects, like the example of national shortages of EU-legal pallets, given that the UK won't be able to stamp their own any more

    Oh it's likely to be too little too late but it's actually doing something that isn't (in theory) can kicking so I feel obliged to support it at least a little bit.

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  • ChanusChanus Ribbit! Registered User regular
    maybe it's just me but any plan that involves an urgent need to stockpile medicine doesn't sound like a triumphant one

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  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    edited July 31
    japan wrote: »
    Jazz wrote: »
    tbh if we are going to end up with no deal I'd prefer at least some prep work

    I wonder how much they can realistically do in three months.

    The consensus appears to be "not enough"

    Part of the problem is the sheer unpredictability of second order effects, like the example of national shortages of EU-legal pallets, given that the UK won't be able to stamp their own any more

    Oh it's likely to be too little too late but it's actually doing something that isn't (in theory) can kicking so I feel obliged to support it at least a little bit.

    If worse comes to worst you can always smuggle onions.

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  • TastyfishTastyfish Registered User regular
    Foefaller wrote: »
    Tastyfish wrote: »
    Foefaller wrote: »
    From the previous thread
    Mc zany wrote:
    This makes little sense. The whole opposition to the backstop was that it would prevent trade deals. Or have I got that wrong?

    IIRC the backstop would move the hard border between RoI and North Ireland to North Ireland and the rest of the UK, until either someone invents magical technology that would allow an open border crossing while simultaneously allowing for the UK to enforce their own trade and customs, or when the UK got it's head out if it's ass and agreed to a final deal that wouldn't require a hard border between RoI and North Ireland.

    Tories don't want it because this whole thing is about SOVEREIGNTY and having a treaty that enforces a hard border inside your own country is the exact opposite of that, and, perhaps more importantly, the Unionist DUP that has kept the Tories in power thanks to a supply deal don't want it, because having a hard border with the UK makes it almost inevitable that North Ireland would leave the UK and join Ireland proper, and they don't want to leave the UK.

    The backstop doesn't move the border anywhere, which is the issue. It just guarantees that if no other arrangement is made, NI exists within a customs union with the Republic of Ireland (and the rest of the EU). The ball is entirely in the UK's court then as to whether Northern Ireland get's treated as part of the EU and Ireland rather than the UK, and the hard border is drawn in the Irish sea - or if the UK basically extends it's 'transition period' indefinitely and adopts the same rules to prevent this border.

    The latter means you're not able to make trade deals as you have to maintain the seamless custom's union with the EU, but at the same time the UK would have no control over any new EU legislation which it would need to adopt. But if you picked the former, you can bet that Scotland and London will want a bite of that action too - and (far more importantly in their mind) the Tories then lose control of the government as the DUP won't support them.

    If the Tories didn't need the DUP to hold onto power, especially if Boris ends up with a majority of 1 on Thursday, then the backstop issue would have been settled way back right after the last election with the "the Irish can go fuck off" strategy.
    Now, the only deal that would prevent a hard border in NI would almost certainly require something akin to the Norway model, i.e regular payments to the EU for access to the single market and retaining free movement of people from the the UK to the EU (and vice-versa, which makes a mockery of the anti-immigration sentiment that led to the referendum result itself).

    I can’t say the writing’s very good but I can say that it’s certainly gripping.
    Not only that, you don't get your Free Port tax havens with the Norway model.

    I think that's what I said? I possibly should have said "customs border" rather than "hard border" but I'm not really seeing anything in your description of the situation that is more than semantically different from mine.

    I also wouldn't put it pass Boris to call a GE and run on a not-so-subtle "Fuck the Irish" platform if he thought it would get a him a Tory majority/Brexit coalition that would be okay with abandoning North Ireland entirely and therefore make Brexit easier. Even though that would guarantee UK being demoted to Great Britain and have a good chance of being demoted further to become just England (and Wales... maybe).

    The critical difference is that the backstop doesn't place a border, it just imposes conditions that the UK needs to do one of two things to avoid a Hard Brexit after the fact, and that the default assumption is that the UK stays in the transitional phase until things can be fixed.

    The Sovereignty issues is then about how long this continues, as we've not drastically disagreed with the EU on most cases and Sudden Hard Brexit is always an option, even if the withdrawal agreement was voted on so it would probably never get so bad that the status quo would drastically change - it's less about having two rules within the borders of the same country, or the central government not having the final say on economic areas within it's notional boundaries (devolution and FUCKING FREE PORTS!), but that this is legitimately something that could continue politically for some time as being something undesirable but not worth the implosion of a No Deal exit.

    The Brexiteers are not wrong when they say that the current withdrawal deal is a nightmare, and that the Irish Backstop is integral to it not working. It's just the EU is also not wrong when they say this is the best we can get*.
    Only sensible option is to not do this, and maybe do it later when you can fix the issues with technology.


    *Well, that might not be true. A genuinely longer term plan could possibly work, and maybe in the benefit of both. Something working towards a two(+)-tier system across the globe where it's a slow phasing out of British involvement in specifically EU affairs whilst more international replacements were strengthened etc. Allowing both economies to adapt to their new roles - but that's not going to get you the two million quid next year that a No Deal can. So fuck it.

  • BurnageBurnage Registered User regular
    Tastyfish wrote: »
    Only sensible option is to not do this, and maybe do it later when you can fix the issues with technology.

    I still don't understand what a technological solution to the Irish border issue would even look like.

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  • ChanusChanus Ribbit! Registered User regular
    Burnage wrote: »
    Tastyfish wrote: »
    Only sensible option is to not do this, and maybe do it later when you can fix the issues with technology.

    I still don't understand what a technological solution to the Irish border issue would even look like.

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  • Commander ZoomCommander Zoom Registered User regular
    Automated omnisurveillance of the entire border by magic Star Trek sensors. When they detect any contraband, persons without proper documentation or outstanding warrants, etc, the system sounds an alarm and the offending items/persons are beamed into a holding cell for processing.

    Now, if you mean with technology we actually have, that's another matter.

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  • discriderdiscrider Registered User regular
    Catapults.
    You can't check crates that you can't catch.

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  • TastyfishTastyfish Registered User regular
    edited July 31
    Burnage wrote: »
    Tastyfish wrote: »
    Only sensible option is to not do this, and maybe do it later when you can fix the issues with technology.

    I still don't understand what a technological solution to the Irish border issue would even look like.

    You wouldn't even see it, that's how advanced it would be.

    But seriously, if I don't have to do it right now and have an infinite budget - you're looking at police state ID by facial recognition and gait and globally tracked shipping via a common system (unique item in the world, unique barcode - or something blockchain related on a scale that current block chain just can't deal with). Don't forget, we're not pitching real world tech here, just what could be done theoretically in two+ years of an extension period having been able to apply unshackled Johnsonian energetic optimism to the secret perpetual motion machines hidden under Cavendish labs in Cambridge University.

    But if everyone is spying on everyone, and we already have data sharing across the globe with passports with biometric information etc, no reason you couldn't have the border exist on the personal level. If you're paying with your phone in Cuba, Coventry and Cork - it can handle the details of any customs arrangements, or void a deal if you've crossed some incompatible threshold (say drugs traffic between US states where it is legal/decriminalised/illegal in different locations). The 'border' applies to individuals and property - not maps.

    Right now? Madness, shouldn't enter the conversation as an option. But pay me 10K to give you wild options that might work for the next generations? I'll throw out some crazy ideas, and then you can say you've researched the topic, and these new technical solutions are just around the corner. So might as well Free Port now to get the benefits of No Deal for a year or two and then start working things out with the EU.

    Tastyfish on
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  • jothkijothki Registered User regular
    edited August 1
    It's much easier than that, all you need to do is fit everyone who travels into Ireland with a tamper-resistant, gps-enabled tracking collar that reports them if they stray off in the wrong direction. That's current tech.

    jothki on
  • halkunhalkun Registered User regular
    edited August 1
    Burnage wrote: »
    Tastyfish wrote: »
    Only sensible option is to not do this, and maybe do it later when you can fix the issues with technology.

    I still don't understand what a technological solution to the Irish border issue would even look like.

    a.... wall? /s

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  • MillMill Registered User regular
    moniker wrote: »
    japan wrote: »
    Jazz wrote: »
    tbh if we are going to end up with no deal I'd prefer at least some prep work

    I wonder how much they can realistically do in three months.

    The consensus appears to be "not enough"

    Part of the problem is the sheer unpredictability of second order effects, like the example of national shortages of EU-legal pallets, given that the UK won't be able to stamp their own any more

    Oh it's likely to be too little too late but it's actually doing something that isn't (in theory) can kicking so I feel obliged to support it at least a little bit.

    If worse comes to worst you can always smuggle onions.

    Man, most of the, if not all, the Sci-Fi writers were way off on what a dystopian future would like. Only thing they got right was that the wealthy elite would still be fucking scum. They just assumed we'd have flying cars and murderbots. Instead it seems to be that people can't get into a flame war with the leaders of powerful countries on a shitty internet platform, while the residents of the UK are forced to resort to smuggling in onions in an attempt to avoid starvation. I reiterated, this isn't the darkest timeline, it's still pretty dark because most of the world is run by fucking callous idiots, it's just the dumbest fucking dark timeline.

    To be more on point, I'm getting the basic gist is that there will be a ton of flailing under Boris, with like fuck all getting done. This will probably lead to his government collapsing and then who the fuck knows how the resulting election plays out, probably likely to get more of the same given the current trend, unless people see some sanity or enough crazies get in to pull the trigger on a bigger shit show.

  • ElldrenElldren Is a woman dammit I'm a good person yes it's trueRegistered User regular
    Burnage wrote: »


    So this seems like an unequivocally bad sign. Either we're getting No Deal or we've blown £2 billion on fucking nothing.

    Don’t discount the possibility of both

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  • surrealitychecksurrealitycheck lonely, but not unloved dreaming of faulty keys and latchesRegistered User regular
    edited August 1
    Mill wrote: »
    moniker wrote: »
    japan wrote: »
    Jazz wrote: »
    tbh if we are going to end up with no deal I'd prefer at least some prep work

    I wonder how much they can realistically do in three months.

    The consensus appears to be "not enough"

    Part of the problem is the sheer unpredictability of second order effects, like the example of national shortages of EU-legal pallets, given that the UK won't be able to stamp their own any more

    Oh it's likely to be too little too late but it's actually doing something that isn't (in theory) can kicking so I feel obliged to support it at least a little bit.

    If worse comes to worst you can always smuggle onions.

    Man, most of the, if not all, the Sci-Fi writers were way off on what a dystopian future would like. Only thing they got right was that the wealthy elite would still be fucking scum. They just assumed we'd have flying cars and murderbots. Instead it seems to be that people can't get into a flame war with the leaders of powerful countries on a shitty internet platform, while the residents of the UK are forced to resort to smuggling in onions in an attempt to avoid starvation. I reiterated, this isn't the darkest timeline, it's still pretty dark because most of the world is run by fucking callous idiots, it's just the dumbest fucking dark timeline.

    To be more on point, I'm getting the basic gist is that there will be a ton of flailing under Boris, with like fuck all getting done. This will probably lead to his government collapsing and then who the fuck knows how the resulting election plays out, probably likely to get more of the same given the current trend, unless people see some sanity or enough crazies get in to pull the trigger on a bigger shit show.

    most recent yougov poll puts cons up to 32%, about 7% higher than they were before boris

    there is a matching 7% shrink in brexit party support

    easy to overinterpret but broadly at the moment it looks like unsurprisingly having a farage-style clown leading the cons brings many of those who liked farage back to the cons

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  • Bad-BeatBad-Beat Registered User regular
    Jazz wrote: »
    Burnage wrote: »


    So this seems like an unequivocally bad sign. Either we're getting No Deal or we've blown £2 billion on fucking nothing.

    The spirit of Grayling lives on.

    I wondered what that smell was...

  • BogartBogart Streetwise Hercules Fighting The Rising Odds Registered User, Moderator mod
    Brecon by-election today, which may well cut Johnson's majority down to 1. That doesn't include people like Kate Hoey who will probably support him in a vote of no confidence, but it's not nothing.

  • Bad-BeatBad-Beat Registered User regular


    Can't wait to see how well this ages...

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  • Commander ZoomCommander Zoom Registered User regular
    edited August 1
    Look at that for a moment. Two to one people think Boris Johnson would make a better PM than Jeremy Corbyn.
    Boris Johnson.

    "If the election were held tomorrow, would you vote for A., Jeremy Corbyn, or B., a bucket of warm phlegm?"
    "Hmm.... how big is the bucket?"

    (Meanwhile, a third of the country are desperately looking for the exits and/or the "none of the above" option.)

    Commander Zoom on
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  • Jam WarriorJam Warrior Registered User regular
    edited August 1
    I think by this point to have any chance of getting anywhere Labour need to accept that, rightly or wrongly, the media messaging war has been long, long, lost and Big J is never going to win over enough of the UK population to achieve a majority. The ingrained kneejerk reaction for too many now is to treat him as toxic. Learn from Clinton v Trump and move on to a new candidate rather than perpetually Canuting it up.

    Of course they won't because the Corbyn cult IS Labour these days and Saint Jezza can never be wrong, only wronged and all that.

    Jam Warrior on
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