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[Hiberno-Britannic Politics] Supremes Reunite For One Last Gig

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Posts

  • BogartBogart Streetwise Hercules Fighting The Rising Odds Registered User, Moderator mod
    Anyone pointing at the polls will be told that they looked bad before the 2017 election as well and Corbyn did much better than expected. If it wasn't that it'd be something else, but the point is they can't let Corbyn go until his faction's control over the succession is assured. Control of the Labour party is more important than electoral success.

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  • CroakerBCCroakerBC YorkRegistered User regular
    Mill wrote: »
    moniker wrote: »
    japan wrote: »
    Jazz wrote: »
    tbh if we are going to end up with no deal I'd prefer at least some prep work

    I wonder how much they can realistically do in three months.

    The consensus appears to be "not enough"

    Part of the problem is the sheer unpredictability of second order effects, like the example of national shortages of EU-legal pallets, given that the UK won't be able to stamp their own any more

    Oh it's likely to be too little too late but it's actually doing something that isn't (in theory) can kicking so I feel obliged to support it at least a little bit.

    If worse comes to worst you can always smuggle onions.

    Man, most of the, if not all, the Sci-Fi writers were way off on what a dystopian future would like. Only thing they got right was that the wealthy elite would still be fucking scum. They just assumed we'd have flying cars and murderbots. Instead it seems to be that people can't get into a flame war with the leaders of powerful countries on a shitty internet platform, while the residents of the UK are forced to resort to smuggling in onions in an attempt to avoid starvation. I reiterated, this isn't the darkest timeline, it's still pretty dark because most of the world is run by fucking callous idiots, it's just the dumbest fucking dark timeline.

    To be more on point, I'm getting the basic gist is that there will be a ton of flailing under Boris, with like fuck all getting done. This will probably lead to his government collapsing and then who the fuck knows how the resulting election plays out, probably likely to get more of the same given the current trend, unless people see some sanity or enough crazies get in to pull the trigger on a bigger shit show.

    most recent yougov poll puts cons up to 32%, about 7% higher than they were before boris

    there is a matching 7% shrink in brexit party support

    easy to overinterpret but broadly at the moment it looks like unsurprisingly having a farage-style clown leading the cons brings many of those who liked farage back to the cons

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    ComRes latest is a lot closer for the two major parties (within a percentage point), but the message of the Conservatives siphoning back the support they lost to BXP is the same.

  • surrealitychecksurrealitycheck lonely, but not unloved dreaming of faulty keys and latchesRegistered User regular
    yes I think in some ways this is more significant purely in terms of how positive it makes cons about a general rather than being an accurate prediction of outcome

    they will be watching the polling v keenly to measure success of their Brexit mcbrexitface strategy

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  • AlphaRomeroAlphaRomero Registered User regular
    It's infuriating that the only thing basically preventing us ending Brexit is that the country is only united by their opposition to Jeremy Corbyn as a leader.

  • BogartBogart Streetwise Hercules Fighting The Rising Odds Registered User, Moderator mod
    I dunno about that. I can't really see many realistic ways to stop Brexit now beyond parliament deciding to revoke Article 50, which they almost certainly won't. A different Labour leader might be more fully for a second referendum, but they'd still be unable to force an election to do anything about it. Maybe they'd be able to coax a few more Tory MPs into a vote of no confidence, then an election, then a second referendum. But it's far, far too late for that now. Corbyn will be the leader if a snap election happens, and he'll be leader through the October 31st deadline.

    If they'd had someone other than Corbyn arguing against Brexit for the past couple of years that may have helped lead public opinion to change its mind, but we haven't, so Remain has had basically zero leaders on the English stage (Sturgeon has been saying it's dumb all along).

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  • BogartBogart Streetwise Hercules Fighting The Rising Odds Registered User, Moderator mod
    I don't think any political party is advocating an end to the Brexit process by revoking Article 50. At best they're pushing a second referendum, for which there isn't time before the deadline.

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  • CasualCasual Wiggle Wiggle Wiggle Flap Flap Flap Registered User regular
    I wonder why no one ever acknowledges that? Do they all think there's gonna be another extension? Under May I always knew there would be it was obvious she never had the courage or the insanity to pull the trigger but with Boris he's a true believer, or at least the sort to believe his own bullshit. I don't think they should doubt he's actually going to do this.

    Now with Labour it's obvious why they continue to play along, Corbyn wants to rule the ashes of post Tory brexit Britain, I'm honestly surprised the lib Dems and SNP aren't making more noise about the fact we've reached shit or get off the pot time. No more faffing about talking about elections or referendums, time for that has been and gone. We either call the while thing off or go through with a hard brexit that has no democratic mandate whatsoever.

    I bring up the mandate thing because Raab has been trying to rewrite history and claim he campaigned for no deal all along. BBC reality check looked into it and found no evidence of this at all.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49165836

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  • daveNYCdaveNYC Why universe hate Waspinator? Registered User regular
    Boris doesn't even have to be a true believer in Brexit, all he has to believe is that still being in the UK on November 1st means his job.

    Shut up, Mr. Burton! You were not brought upon this world to get it!
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  • klemmingklemming Registered User regular
    Has there been any polling about who people would vote for if there was another extension/referendum/we just killed A50 and said "you know what, this was a bad idea from the off"?

    The government line seems to be that people would be lynched for this abject betrayal of democracy in the name of sanity.

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  • surrealitychecksurrealitycheck lonely, but not unloved dreaming of faulty keys and latchesRegistered User regular
    worth noting in that comres poll that you probably get a labour minority government - and only 5 brx seats. Results are insanely unstable rn

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  • BurnageBurnage Registered User regular
    klemming wrote: »
    Has there been any polling about who people would vote for if there was another extension/referendum/we just killed A50 and said "you know what, this was a bad idea from the off"?

    The government line seems to be that people would be lynched for this abject betrayal of democracy in the name of sanity.

    I don't exactly want to fearmonger but that government line might not be entirely unrealistic. You can't spend three years portraying something as genuinely traitorous and then expect there to be no negative consequences when you do it.

    Hell, Jo Cox is already an unfortunate testament to that, and her death happened before the referendum result.

    moniker
  • japanjapan Registered User regular
    worth noting in that comres poll that you probably get a labour minority government - and only 5 brx seats. Results are insanely unstable rn

    I don't think anyone has a worthwhile seat projection model that can cope with the vote largely splitting four ways

    Although having said that it would be interesting to see whose models have most accurately called scottish seats in westminster elections, given that the vote has historically been more fragmented up here because of the presence of the SNP and the relative strength of the Lib Dems

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  • nexuscrawlernexuscrawler Registered User regular
    Burnage wrote: »


    So this seems like an unequivocally bad sign. Either we're getting No Deal or we've blown £2 billion on fucking nothing.

    When's Boris going to put that shit on the side of a bus

    Ticaldfjam
  • klemmingklemming Registered User regular
    I'm just wondering how they're going to handle the pivot to 'we never thought this was a good idea in the first place', which they're going to have to do to survive.

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  • surrealitychecksurrealitycheck lonely, but not unloved dreaming of faulty keys and latchesRegistered User regular
    edited August 1
    japan wrote: »
    worth noting in that comres poll that you probably get a labour minority government - and only 5 brx seats. Results are insanely unstable rn

    I don't think anyone has a worthwhile seat projection model that can cope with the vote largely splitting four ways

    Although having said that it would be interesting to see whose models have most accurately called scottish seats in westminster elections, given that the vote has historically been more fragmented up here because of the presence of the SNP and the relative strength of the Lib Dems

    yeah it's not like these ge polls have constituency level granularity...

    people are going nuts

    key calibrator is that 42% got tories a hung parliament in 2017 so we gotta chill about predictions

    surrealitycheck on
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  • BogartBogart Streetwise Hercules Fighting The Rising Odds Registered User, Moderator mod
    It would be glorious if the Brexit party polled around 10-15% and gained precisely no MPs. I would laugh like a drain for a very long time.

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  • japanjapan Registered User regular
    klemming wrote: »
    I'm just wondering how they're going to handle the pivot to 'we never thought this was a good idea in the first place', which they're going to have to do to survive.

    I don't think they will

    Part of the "will of the people" narrative is the idea that parliamentarians have to implement it, because that was the decision of the referendum. You see this already being used to bat away questions from the media about the more obvious negative outcomes, and it's the foundation of the "remoaner" response

    In some ways this is worse, because it means that the government have to double down on othering roughly half of the country

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  • TastyfishTastyfish Registered User regular
    The new head of the EU Commission has said she'd back another Extension "should more time be required" and even the head of the ERG is saying it's crazy to try and renegotiate a deal before October 31st and that they should take more time to do it.

  • daveNYCdaveNYC Why universe hate Waspinator? Registered User regular
    klemming wrote: »
    I'm just wondering how they're going to handle the pivot to 'we never thought this was a good idea in the first place', which they're going to have to do to survive.

    Pretty sure that blaming it on the EU/Irish/Jews/Stonemasons will do in a pinch.

    Shut up, Mr. Burton! You were not brought upon this world to get it!
    FencingsaxH3Knuckles
  • CasualCasual Wiggle Wiggle Wiggle Flap Flap Flap Registered User regular
    Bogart wrote: »
    It would be glorious if the Brexit party polled around 10-15% and gained precisely no MPs. I would laugh like a drain for a very long time.

    I'd still be willing to bet that's the most likely outcome. That or 1 or 2 seats at maximum. FPTP is not kind to brand new parties.

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  • JazzJazz UKRegistered User regular
    Mark Francois, noted ERG nutter, is insisting the deal is completely dead and refusing to vote for it even if the backstop is removed.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/01/mark-francois-tory-rebels-vow-to-block-brexit-deal-even-without-backstop

    I can't think he's the only one, either.

    tynic
  • MayabirdMayabird Pecking at the keyboardRegistered User regular
    Burnage wrote: »


    So this seems like an unequivocally bad sign. Either we're getting No Deal or we've blown £2 billion on fucking nothing.

    It means £2 billion is falling down a grift hole lining the pockets of the few people pushing Brexit to profit off the corpse of the UK. You know, Johnson's clique, Rees-Mogg and all them.

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  • MillMill Registered User regular
    Yeah, I'd also say polling probably can't account for how the general public will react to Boris impotently flailing about on a number of things. Doesn't look like he has much of a majority to work with and it seems like a number of issues are now running into the whole "so what the fuck do we do if 'no deal' happens?" So it's not like he has a ton of issues to use as distractions and bolster his favorability with the public. I think he is very much in the spot that Trump was at after 2016, he is pretty much despised by many, but his prospects probably have some room to get worse once people see just how bad he is and can't wave off as "well we won't know until we give him a shot, it might work."

    Also the whole thing that this isn't in a vacuum. Boris isn't the only one that can find ways to screw up further. Corbyn is pretty incompetent and I gather the alternatives aren't exactly great either. Hence the whole, who the fuck knows how the next election turns out.

  • SharpyVIISharpyVII Registered User regular
    edited August 1
    Sam works for Sky News:



    Makes for grim reading.

    Obviously the comments are full of people shouting "project fear" "scaremongering" etc despite this being the government's own analysis.

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  • FencingsaxFencingsax It is difficult to get a man to understand, when his salary depends upon his not understanding GNU Terry PratchettRegistered User regular
    klemming wrote: »
    I'm just wondering how they're going to handle the pivot to 'we never thought this was a good idea in the first place', which they're going to have to do to survive.

    They're just going to lie. And blame labor/immigrants.

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  • BurnageBurnage Registered User regular
    SharpyVII wrote: »
    Sam works for Sky News:

    Makes for grim reading.

    Obviously the comments are full of people shouting "project fear" "scaremongering" etc despite this being the government's own analysis.

    It is worth noting that we don't know how likely these scenarios were judged to be. That they could occur doesn't tell us much - they could be worst case scenario, they could be most likely outcome, they could just be a possible scenario thrown out to work through potential consequences.

    Still not great, but, well, very little about Brexit is.

    Gnome-Interruptus
  • PantsBPantsB Registered User regular
    SharpyVII wrote: »
    Sam works for Sky News:



    Makes for grim reading.

    Obviously the comments are full of people shouting "project fear" "scaremongering" etc despite this being the government's own analysis.

    "Law and order challenges" seems a bit Troubling.

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  • SolarSolar Registered User regular
    edited August 1
    When can we expect the results of the by-election?

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  • JazzJazz UKRegistered User regular
    Pro-EU Tory MP Phillip Lee is wondering out loud if he should defect to the Lib Dems.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-mp-defection-lib-dems-brexit-boris-johnson-majority-phillip-lee-a9030576.html

    Which of course (assuming today's by-election does what we think) would eliminate Johnson's majority altogether.

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  • TastyfishTastyfish Registered User regular
    Solar wrote: »
    When can we expect the results of the by-election?

    They declared around 3AM for the general election, voting is about 2/3rds of that for the byelection.

  • SharpyVIISharpyVII Registered User regular
    edited August 2
    Lib Dems have won:



    Corbyn faithful are already swarming social media.

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  • AegisAegis Not Quite TorontoRegistered User regular
    Nice far-right split of the vote there.

    We'll see how long this blog lasts
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  • XaquinXaquin Right behind you!Registered User regular
    that seems like a good outcome?

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  • JazzJazz UKRegistered User regular
    The Monster Raving Loony Party beat UKIP. :lol:

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  • JazzJazz UKRegistered User regular
    Aegis wrote: »
    Nice far-right split of the vote there.

    Con+Brex+UKIP=50.3%.

    That is still troubling.

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  • TastyfishTastyfish Registered User regular
    Jazz wrote: »
    The Monster Raving Loony Party beat UKIP. :lol:

    I'm going to be disappointed if this doesn't get more airtime.

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  • Werewolf2000adWerewolf2000ad Suckers, I know exactly what went wrong. Registered User regular
    edited August 2
    And so Boris sets his first record as PM: Fastest time to lose a seat in a by-election. At just 11 days, he beats out the previous record holder (Asquith, 1908) by a full five days.

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  • JazzJazz UKRegistered User regular
    And so Boris sets his first record as PM: Fastest time to lose a seat in a by-election. At just 11 days, he beats out the previous record holder (Asquith, 1908) by a full five days.

    I really, really hope Guinness actually certify that for posterity.

  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    Jazz wrote: »
    The Monster Raving Loony Party beat UKIP. :lol:

    Yes, but they're down 9.6% from last election.

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  • cckerberoscckerberos Registered User regular
    Jazz wrote: »
    Aegis wrote: »
    Nice far-right split of the vote there.

    Con+Brex+UKIP=50.3%.

    That is still troubling.

    Since it voted almost 52/48 to Leave, it's a small improvement.

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