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[Hiberno-Britannic Politics] Supremes Reunite For One Last Gig

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Posts

  • CasualCasual Wiggle Wiggle Wiggle Flap Flap Flap Registered User regular
    I had actually been imagining up to this point parliament would pull us back from the brink at the last minute but apparently not. What Bogart said is correct from what I can see, the last point at which we could have no confidenced Boris and come up with another plan has passed and he knows it. We could still no confidence him but not in time to stop no deal. It goes without saying I'm utterly disgusted with the entire parliament. The Tory rebels for failing to find their balls. The remain parties for not making a bigger deal of this time limit or simply allowing themselves to be out manoeuvred by Boris, the Labour turncoats who voted with the government every step of the way to cancel out the small number of Tories who did see sense and most of all more than anything else Corbyns complete refusal to oppose a policy he clearly wants to happen.

    I'm going to have to tune out the news for a few months. I think watching the Tory pantomime negotiations and Corbyns "real fight starts now" crap will actually cause me to have a stroke. I'll tune back in when it's time for Scotland to vote to leave the UK.

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  • FencingsaxFencingsax It is difficult to get a man to understand, when his salary depends upon his not understanding GNU Terry PratchettRegistered User regular
    Elldren wrote: »
    The obvious solution to that sort of crass machination isn’t the queen: it’s a cross-party interim government with the sole purpose of pulling us out from under the sword of Damocles that is the October deadline and calling a general election.

    Edit: and any MP who doesn’t want a no-deal exit needs to be planning this shit now.

    Technically, they should have planned this literal years ago.

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  • ElldrenElldren Is a woman dammit I'm a good person yes it's trueRegistered User regular
    Fencingsax wrote: »
    Elldren wrote: »
    The obvious solution to that sort of crass machination isn’t the queen: it’s a cross-party interim government with the sole purpose of pulling us out from under the sword of Damocles that is the October deadline and calling a general election.

    Edit: and any MP who doesn’t want a no-deal exit needs to be planning this shit now.

    Technically, they should have planned this literal years ago.

    I mean obviously.

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  • BogartBogart Streetwise Hercules Fighting The Rising Odds Registered User, Moderator mod
    klemming wrote: »
    Elldren wrote: »
    The obvious solution to that sort of crass machination isn’t the queen: it’s a cross-party interim government with the sole purpose of pulling us out from under the sword of Damocles that is the October deadline and calling a general election.
    But by the rules, he can keep that from happening, can't he? If they do manage a no-confidence vote, he can refuse to step down, call an election that's just too late for them to do anything, and then it's all fucked.

    No, a no confidence vote results in a 14 day period when he can try and form an alternative government. Other people in Parliament can try and form an alternative government as well, and if they can get a working majority of MPs to sign up then they can go to the Queen and say hey we're the new government.

    I suspect if they did they'd need to be able to tell people they'd call an election asap, but it'd be a way of stopping Johnson from dicking about with election dates and enforcing a no deal Brexit.

    No confidence results in a 14 day period of people scrabbling around to form a new working majority.

    A dissolution of parliament results in an election held not more than 25 days later.

    The second thing does not follow immediately after the first, and is at the mercy of the PM, so the one chance of stopping him from dicking around is that 14 day period. The reason I think it's unlikely to work is that the leader of the opposition is Corbyn, who has trouble leading his own MPs, let alone a cross-party coalition. Once again, opposition to Brexit is hampered by the opposition being unusually useless.

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  • CasualCasual Wiggle Wiggle Wiggle Flap Flap Flap Registered User regular
    It just boggles my mind how fast everything has gone to shit since 2014. Like it's almost comical the contrast between then and now. There was just no way to know back then how fucked everything would get because almost every step of the way to bring us here has been so unlikely that all of it strung together sounded like complete insanity back then.

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  • BogartBogart Streetwise Hercules Fighting The Rising Odds Registered User, Moderator mod
    Casual wrote: »
    I had actually been imagining up to this point parliament would pull us back from the brink at the last minute but apparently not. What Bogart said is correct from what I can see, the last point at which we could have no confidenced Boris and come up with another plan has passed and he knows it. We could still no confidence him but not in time to stop no deal.

    If an alternative working majority can sort itself out in the 14 day period they can replace him and stop no deal. They would be on shaky ground to do anything other than call an immediate election, though, or possibly asking for an extension so an election or a second referendum can be held. They certainly wouldn't be able to see out a Parliamentary term or anything. It'd purely be a way of nobbling Johnson before he could perform any jiggery-pokery.

    I think this is unlikely, but it's not impossible.

    Elldren
  • CasualCasual Wiggle Wiggle Wiggle Flap Flap Flap Registered User regular
    edited August 6
    I don't see it happening. If the political will or ability to stop no deal brexit existed it would have happened by now. We basically need to Boris and Corbyn to simultaneously drop dead of heart attacks and be replaced by less insane and stupid people. Since no such people exist in the upper echelons of either part right now even that wouldn't help us much.

    Casual on
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  • ElldrenElldren Is a woman dammit I'm a good person yes it's trueRegistered User regular
    Bogart wrote: »
    Casual wrote: »
    I had actually been imagining up to this point parliament would pull us back from the brink at the last minute but apparently not. What Bogart said is correct from what I can see, the last point at which we could have no confidenced Boris and come up with another plan has passed and he knows it. We could still no confidence him but not in time to stop no deal.

    If an alternative working majority can sort itself out in the 14 day period they can replace him and stop no deal. They would be on shaky ground to do anything other than call an immediate election, though, or possibly asking for an extension so an election or a second referendum can be held. They certainly wouldn't be able to see out a Parliamentary term or anything. It'd purely be a way of nobbling Johnson before he could perform any jiggery-pokery.

    I think this is unlikely, but it's not impossible.

    The only way I can see it happen is if MPs work out the details right now, before a no-confidence motion is passed.

    I also see no way anyone other than a no-hope backbencher gets to be PM in that situation. Hell it may even be an independent life peer or something similarly crazy.

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  • klemmingklemming Registered User regular
    Bogart wrote: »
    The second thing does not follow immediately after the first, and is at the mercy of the PM, so the one chance of stopping him from dicking around is that 14 day period. The reason I think it's unlikely to work is that the leader of the opposition is Corbyn, who has trouble leading his own MPs, let alone a cross-party coalition. Once again, opposition to Brexit is hampered by the opposition being unusually useless.
    In this case I think it's hampered by essentially requiring Corbyn to be opposed to brexit when he's pretty clearly not.

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  • BogartBogart Streetwise Hercules Fighting The Rising Odds Registered User, Moderator mod
    Corbyn isn't going to get a majority of Parliament to put him in as even a temporary PM, but he's also probably unwilling to back any temporary government that puts forward someone else. He'll take at least enough Labour MPs with him to make it impossible. The overwhelming majority of Tory MPs now appear willing to back a no deal Brexit come hell or high water and will follow Johnson out of fear of looking disloyal in front of their members.

    Let's say 30 Tories back a government of national unity, and I think that's putting it very optimistically. It would only take the same number of Labour MPs unwilling to back it to scotch it entirely, and that's assuming the SNP, Lib Dems and every Independent MP was already on board.

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  • daveNYCdaveNYC Why universe hate Waspinator? Registered User regular
    Elldren wrote: »
    Bogart wrote: »
    Casual wrote: »
    I had actually been imagining up to this point parliament would pull us back from the brink at the last minute but apparently not. What Bogart said is correct from what I can see, the last point at which we could have no confidenced Boris and come up with another plan has passed and he knows it. We could still no confidence him but not in time to stop no deal.

    If an alternative working majority can sort itself out in the 14 day period they can replace him and stop no deal. They would be on shaky ground to do anything other than call an immediate election, though, or possibly asking for an extension so an election or a second referendum can be held. They certainly wouldn't be able to see out a Parliamentary term or anything. It'd purely be a way of nobbling Johnson before he could perform any jiggery-pokery.

    I think this is unlikely, but it's not impossible.

    The only way I can see it happen is if MPs work out the details right now, before a no-confidence motion is passed.

    I also see no way anyone other than a no-hope backbencher Lord Buckethead gets to be PM in that situation. Hell it may even be an independent life peer or something similarly crazy.

    Gotta look on the bright side here.

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  • SolarSolar Registered User regular
    Gareth Southgate should be PM IMO

    Jazz
  • JazzJazz UKRegistered User regular
    Solar wrote: »
    Gareth Southgate should be PM IMO

    No-one has united the country (well, England; apologies to rUK) more than him in years. Probably decades, to be fair.

    Solar
  • Bad-BeatBad-Beat Registered User regular
    Solar wrote: »
    Gareth Southgate should be PM IMO

    he does still turn us on, to be fair.

    SolarJazz
  • Redcoat-13Redcoat-13 Registered User regular
    Bogart wrote: »
    Corbyn isn't going to get a majority of Parliament to put him in as even a temporary PM, but he's also probably unwilling to back any temporary government that puts forward someone else. He'll take at least enough Labour MPs with him to make it impossible. The overwhelming majority of Tory MPs now appear willing to back a no deal Brexit come hell or high water and will follow Johnson out of fear of looking disloyal in front of their members.

    Let's say 30 Tories back a government of national unity, and I think that's putting it very optimistically. It would only take the same number of Labour MPs unwilling to back it to scotch it entirely, and that's assuming the SNP, Lib Dems and every Independent MP was already on board.

    I’m sure I’ve read / heard that 24 Labour MPs have said they will back a no deal Brexit.

    I’m reasonably sure that if an election occurred close to the deadline, then the EU would grant an extension for that to get sorted before seeing who got into power (if it ends up being the Tories we won’t get another).

    Pretty amusing seeing the Tories are now pushing it’s the EU not wanting to negotiate a new deal.

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  • CroakerBCCroakerBC YorkRegistered User regular
    Redcoat-13 wrote: »
    Bogart wrote: »
    Corbyn isn't going to get a majority of Parliament to put him in as even a temporary PM, but he's also probably unwilling to back any temporary government that puts forward someone else. He'll take at least enough Labour MPs with him to make it impossible. The overwhelming majority of Tory MPs now appear willing to back a no deal Brexit come hell or high water and will follow Johnson out of fear of looking disloyal in front of their members.

    Let's say 30 Tories back a government of national unity, and I think that's putting it very optimistically. It would only take the same number of Labour MPs unwilling to back it to scotch it entirely, and that's assuming the SNP, Lib Dems and every Independent MP was already on board.

    I’m sure I’ve read / heard that 24 Labour MPs have said they will back a no deal Brexit.

    I’m reasonably sure that if an election occurred close to the deadline, then the EU would grant an extension for that to get sorted before seeing who got into power (if it ends up being the Tories we won’t get another).

    Pretty amusing seeing the Tories are now pushing it’s the EU not wanting to negotiate a new deal.

    I've seen "up to 30" who would defy the whip to vote for a deal, and "8 to 10" who would vote for No Deal rather than revoke article 50. Which sounds about right. Though I suspect the "would vote for a deal" numbers are soft, and that most of the No Deal lot would probably vote for another extension over no deal (it seems to be No Brexit they object to, rather than saying no deal is actually a good idea).

    Given a government working majority of, er, one, it really depends how many centrist Tories would break cover and defect, abstain or defy the whip to prevent economic cataclysm. Probably not as many as I'd hope but quite probably enough.

  • SolarSolar Registered User regular
    edited August 6
    Jazz wrote: »
    Solar wrote: »
    Gareth Southgate should be PM IMO

    No-one has united the country (well, England; apologies to rUK) more than him in years. Probably decades, to be fair.

    I honestly think that one of the reasons the country is so decided is because we always compete in sporting events as England, Scotland etc. If we were always team UK we'd be probably more united.

    Solar on
    Jazz
  • BogartBogart Streetwise Hercules Fighting The Rising Odds Registered User, Moderator mod
    In the Olympics we’re Britain.

  • Bad-BeatBad-Beat Registered User regular
    Bogart wrote: »
    In the Olympics we’re Britain.

    Which is a bit of a sour note for some, particularly Northern Ireland. Because we're Team GB for branding purposes but officially it's Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

  • klemmingklemming Registered User regular
    Bogart wrote: »
    In the Olympics we’re Britain.
    Unless we lose. In which case we're Scotland.
    Redcoat-13 wrote: »
    I’m reasonably sure that if an election occurred close to the deadline, then the EU would grant an extension for that to get sorted before seeing who got into power (if it ends up being the Tories we won’t get another).
    They might offer one, but the way things stand, Boris would turn it down. As I understand it, they can't force an extension.

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  • JazzJazz UKRegistered User regular
    edited August 6
    Bogart wrote: »
    In the Olympics we’re Britain.

    F1 drivers/teams as well, when & where it applies.

    But Solar is right, in many we don't, we're split into the constituent nations. And obviously football is the biggest one by a mile.

    Bad-Beat wrote: »
    Bogart wrote: »
    In the Olympics we’re Britain.

    Which is a bit of a sour note for some, particularly Northern Ireland. Because we're Team GB for branding purposes but officially it's Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

    It really should be Team UK, in events where NI is teamed up with GB.

    Jazz on
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  • Redcoat-13Redcoat-13 Registered User regular
    The various FA’s (probably not the English FA) are dead set against any GB football team.

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  • japanjapan Registered User regular
    edited August 6
    Rebecca Long-Bailey: "we will do everything in our power to prevent a no-deal brexit, except the thing that might actually prevent it":



    Tl;dw: RLB says Labour will not countenance a government of national unity

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  • ChanusChanus Ribbit! Registered User regular
    i don't know how anyone could consider labour a remain party at this point

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  • PreacherPreacher Registered User regular
    Chanus wrote: »
    i don't know how anyone could consider labour a remain party at this point

    They aren't, and haven't been. It seems to be a radically stupid position to take to me.

    I would like some money because these are artisanal nuggets of wisdom philistine.

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  • danxdanx Registered User regular
    edited August 6
    That's quality timing. Corbyns defenders are upset over Sturgeons comments today that Corbyn will be almost as responsible as Johnson and May if we crash out with no deal. Fucking Labour.

    danx on
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  • BogartBogart Streetwise Hercules Fighting The Rising Odds Registered User, Moderator mod
    They’re determined to seize power in the wake of a catastrophe. Genuinely unconscionable.

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  • GoumindongGoumindong Registered User regular
    Preacher wrote: »
    Chanus wrote: »
    i don't know how anyone could consider labour a remain party at this point

    They aren't, and haven't been. It seems to be a radically stupid position to take to me.

    Unless youre pro leave. Then it makes perfect sense to suggest Labour is the remain party

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  • JazzJazz UKRegistered User regular
    Bogart wrote: »
    They’re determined to seize power in the wake of a catastrophe. Genuinely unconscionable.

    Better to reign in Hell and all that.

  • PreacherPreacher Registered User regular
    Goumindong wrote: »
    Preacher wrote: »
    Chanus wrote: »
    i don't know how anyone could consider labour a remain party at this point

    They aren't, and haven't been. It seems to be a radically stupid position to take to me.

    Unless youre pro leave. Then it makes perfect sense to suggest Labour is the remain party

    Labour hasn't at any time since the stupidity began come down strongly for remain. Corbyn still thinks he can get in charge and some how manage a perfect brexit. And I feel half the UK are just being told to piss up a rope.

    I would like some money because these are artisanal nuggets of wisdom philistine.

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  • GoumindongGoumindong Registered User regular
    Preacher wrote: »
    Goumindong wrote: »
    Preacher wrote: »
    Chanus wrote: »
    i don't know how anyone could consider labour a remain party at this point

    They aren't, and haven't been. It seems to be a radically stupid position to take to me.

    Unless youre pro leave. Then it makes perfect sense to suggest Labour is the remain party

    Labour hasn't at any time since the stupidity began come down strongly for remain. Corbyn still thinks he can get in charge and some how manage a perfect brexit. And I feel half the UK are just being told to piss up a rope.

    Yes. I know. But if youre pro leave then suggesting that labour is the remain parry is the optimal strategy if you want to leave.

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  • kaidkaid Registered User regular
    Foefaller wrote: »
    Burnage wrote: »
    danx wrote: »
    It's being reported the Times and the Guardian (as an aside) that Dominic Cummings believes BoJo will ignore the result of a confidence vote and push on with no deal.
    Boris Johnson would refuse to resign even after losing a confidence vote so he could force through a no-deal Brexit on October 31, under plans being considered by Downing Street.

    Dominic Cummings, the prime minister’s most senior aide, told colleagues last week that Mr Johnson would not quit if Tory Remainers voted with Labour to bring down the government.

    The Times has been told that Mr Johnson could stay on as prime minister even if Tory MPs were able to form a “government of national unity” opposed to a no-deal Brexit. Mr Johnson would ignore the result of the confidence vote and call a “people v politicians” general election to be held shortly after Britain had left the EU.

    Cummings is a dangerous asshole and Boris is craven compulsive liar and narcissist so it's not a shock they'd consider this.

    So, uh

    I know that we're in a continual state of political crisis at the moment, but Johnson trying to pull this would absolutely be a political crisis, right?

    I'm pretty sure stopping Boris from doing it would be one of the few "Queen would be allowed to wield the power she has as Queen and get away with it," scenarios.

    Yup I think that would be a clear cut legit case for Mum to come in and put her small foot down about this issue. It would be in deep enough political waters already that her asserting her authority would not make the issue worse than it already would be.

  • BogartBogart Streetwise Hercules Fighting The Rising Odds Registered User, Moderator mod
    I will repeat my opinion that thinking the Queen is going to intervene is about as likely as King Arthur waking up to claim his throne.

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  • Commander ZoomCommander Zoom Registered User regular
    At this point, I'd take either of 'em.

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  • PreacherPreacher Registered User regular
    Bogart wrote: »
    I will repeat my opinion that thinking the Queen is going to intervene is about as likely as King Arthur waking up to claim his throne.

    So you're telling me there's a chance.

    I would like some money because these are artisanal nuggets of wisdom philistine.

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  • Commander ZoomCommander Zoom Registered User regular
    Goumindong wrote: »
    Preacher wrote: »
    Goumindong wrote: »
    Preacher wrote: »
    Chanus wrote: »
    i don't know how anyone could consider labour a remain party at this point

    They aren't, and haven't been. It seems to be a radically stupid position to take to me.

    Unless youre pro leave. Then it makes perfect sense to suggest Labour is the remain party

    Labour hasn't at any time since the stupidity began come down strongly for remain. Corbyn still thinks he can get in charge and some how manage a perfect brexit. And I feel half the UK are just being told to piss up a rope.

    Yes. I know. But if youre pro leave then suggesting that labour is the remain parry is the optimal strategy if you want to leave.

    Yes, outright lying has been a very successful strategy since this whole thing began.

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  • FoefallerFoefaller Registered User regular
    edited August 6
    At this point, I'd take either of 'em.

    King Arthur would probably have trouble making headway with the staunchest Brexiteers on account of being Welsh.

    Foefaller on
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  • klemmingklemming Registered User regular
    Preacher wrote: »
    And I feel half the UK are just being told to piss up a rope.
    I don't recall ever being offered a rope.

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  • JazzJazz UKRegistered User regular
    Foefaller wrote: »
    At this point, I'd take either of 'em.

    King Arthur would probably have trouble making headway with the staunchest Brexiteers on account of being Welsh.

    Saint George was Turkish/Greek. No doubt they'd want to stop him coming in too.

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  • TastyfishTastyfish Registered User regular
    Looks like everything is going to depend on the run up to the Labour Conference. With Remain/Revoke being pushed as one of the big things to be debated at the party level more explicitly than last time, but each council seems to have a FPTP system for nominating a topic to be considered - so R/R on Brexit is being pitted against Momentum's Green New Deal.

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