Now we just need that pro EU conservative mp to leave the government and the Tories no longer have a majority!
I saw a tweet that said the rumour was at least four pro EU MPs were thinking of defecting to the Lib Dems if they won tonight.
I can't find it now but it's going to be an interesting few days.
SharpyVII on
+5
Options
ShadowenSnores in the morningLoserdomRegistered Userregular
On the one hand, the Lib Dems really don't need a bunch of Tories pulling them rightward right when they should be angling for left-leaning Remainers. On the other, cutting the legs out from under Johnson inside two weeks would be amazing.
This is certainly an interesting take from the Telegraph
This was an election that the Lib Dems threw the kitchen sink at and should have been a shoo-in for them. The fact that it wasn’t and that the Conservatives finished a close second, suggests Boris Johnson has got the Conservatives back into play electorally in what is a high risk winner takes all general election strategy. All the same, nothing in this result suggests anything other than ongoing voter unpredictability.
With all the indicators pointing to a 1990s style Lib Dem gain against a Government in difficulties, enter right the Tories Lord Flashheart, one Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, injecting confidence, charisma and optimism as a dynamic new Prime Minister and taking Government by the scuff [sic] of its neck. It clearly made a difference, giving Tories something positive to vote for and, more importantly in a 52:48 per cent Brexit split constituency, he had a renewed focus on taking the UK out of the EU on October 31. The Conservatives returned in this by-election to the party of leave and therefore Brexit, in a successful strategy to squeeze the Brexit Party vote. Boris becoming Prime Minister even for just over a week but with a new Brexit delivery agenda, injected an element of uncertainty into proceedings right up to the announcement of the result. In just over a week Boris moved his party from a position of no hope to coming close to victory.
The Telegraph always was a Tory paper but it seems to have really gone downhill the last few years (or perhaps I didn’t really notice that it was always this bad).
This is certainly an interesting take from the Telegraph
This was an election that the Lib Dems threw the kitchen sink at and should have been a shoo-in for them. The fact that it wasn’t and that the Conservatives finished a close second, suggests Boris Johnson has got the Conservatives back into play electorally in what is a high risk winner takes all general election strategy. All the same, nothing in this result suggests anything other than ongoing voter unpredictability.
With all the indicators pointing to a 1990s style Lib Dem gain against a Government in difficulties, enter right the Tories Lord Flashheart, one Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, injecting confidence, charisma and optimism as a dynamic new Prime Minister and taking Government by the scuff [sic] of its neck. It clearly made a difference, giving Tories something positive to vote for and, more importantly in a 52:48 per cent Brexit split constituency, he had a renewed focus on taking the UK out of the EU on October 31. The Conservatives returned in this by-election to the party of leave and therefore Brexit, in a successful strategy to squeeze the Brexit Party vote. Boris becoming Prime Minister even for just over a week but with a new Brexit delivery agenda, injected an element of uncertainty into proceedings right up to the announcement of the result. In just over a week Boris moved his party from a position of no hope to coming close to victory.
The Telegraph always was a Tory paper but it seems to have really gone downhill the last few years (or perhaps I didn’t really notice that it was always this bad).
So what the Telegraph is saying is that the results were bad for Obama.
Looking at Labour's by-election record under Corbyn and he hasn't actually increased Labour's percentage in any seat since 2016. Every by-election (4 of them) in the last two years has seen a double digit drop in percentage points (though turnout was lower every time).
This is certainly an interesting take from the Telegraph
This was an election that the Lib Dems threw the kitchen sink at and should have been a shoo-in for them. The fact that it wasn’t and that the Conservatives finished a close second, suggests Boris Johnson has got the Conservatives back into play electorally in what is a high risk winner takes all general election strategy. All the same, nothing in this result suggests anything other than ongoing voter unpredictability.
With all the indicators pointing to a 1990s style Lib Dem gain against a Government in difficulties, enter right the Tories Lord Flashheart, one Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, injecting confidence, charisma and optimism as a dynamic new Prime Minister and taking Government by the scuff [sic] of its neck. It clearly made a difference, giving Tories something positive to vote for and, more importantly in a 52:48 per cent Brexit split constituency, he had a renewed focus on taking the UK out of the EU on October 31. The Conservatives returned in this by-election to the party of leave and therefore Brexit, in a successful strategy to squeeze the Brexit Party vote. Boris becoming Prime Minister even for just over a week but with a new Brexit delivery agenda, injected an element of uncertainty into proceedings right up to the announcement of the result. In just over a week Boris moved his party from a position of no hope to coming close to victory.
The Telegraph always was a Tory paper but it seems to have really gone downhill the last few years (or perhaps I didn’t really notice that it was always this bad).
I'm looking at that paragraph again, and realising that with a few very, very slight amendments, they could have used it if the Conservatives had won, too. So it may have been intentional laziness.
I'm trying to work out what it means that the Lib Dems took away a Conservative majority of 8000. Even if all the BXP folks had gone Tory, that still would've left them a new majority of around 1500. Not sure that this means the Brexit messaging is working for the Tories, as it sounds like they've lost voters to the right and left, here.
Looking at Labour's by-election record under Corbyn and he hasn't actually increased Labour's percentage in any seat since 2016. Every by-election (4 of them) in the last two years has seen a double digit drop in percentage points (though turnout was lower every time).
Yes, but you see, while the overall number of votes where lower, the quality of the remaining voters are better! Instead of fair-weather Blairite scum, every vote Labour got tonight was a pure true believer Corbyn supporter, which is obviously better for Labours long term prospects.
Note; if this is Corbyn's actual excuse, I demand royalties.
The sky was full of stars, every star an exploding ship. One of ours.
The insistence on fighting a by-election they definitely weren't going to win when other left-wing parties had dropped out to give the Lib Dems a better chance of getting rid of the Tories made them look either petulant and pig-headed or willing to split the vote and let the Tories in.
In case anyone apart from me cares about the exciting world of post-Brexit data flows, I found a site that has all the analysis from the last few years.
A no-deal event would go about as well as you'd expect. But seeing ti laid out is rather grim.
I think it's the arrogance of being one of the main two parties that leads them to think of themselves as being above stepping aside for the greater good, even in situations where they're objectively not the front runner and can only get in the way.
Labour see themselves as being the only alternative to the Tories and the Lib Dems should be getting out of their way.
The foreign secretary, Dominic Raab, has been accused of “misleading the public” over no-deal Brexit and bringing the post of Foreign Secretary “into disrepute”.
This is absolutely accurate and Raab is a lying piece of shit. He claimed to have spoken often about no deal during the referendum campaign and that people wwere aware of it and that the Tories therefore had a mandate to follow no deal. An utter lie that the BBC, ITV and Channel 4 have now fact-checked and come up empty finding evidence of him doing any such thing.
Nice to see UKIP finish beneath the Monster Raving Looney Party.
Serious parties beat joke parties.
The BBC explicitly calls this out in the final line of their story, it's hilarious!
But I don't mind, as long as there's a bed beneath the stars that shine,
I'll be fine, just give me a minute, a man's got a limit, I can't get a life if my heart's not in it.
I thought this was a joke post, so I started googling for what MRLP might actually stand for.
...UK elections are so much more fun than ours.
Lord Buckethead is a genuine political candidate who has stood against three different Prime Ministers in elections over the years. He is also an intergalactic spacelord with a bucket for a head.
I thought this was a joke post, so I started googling for what MRLP might actually stand for.
...UK elections are so much more fun than ours.
Lord Buckethead is a genuine political candidate who has stood against three different Prime Ministers in elections over the years. He is also an intergalactic spacelord with a bucket for a head.
He's also explicitly anti-Brexit. I believe his exact words were "It's going to be a shitshow".
I thought this was a joke post, so I started googling for what MRLP might actually stand for.
...UK elections are so much more fun than ours.
Lord Buckethead is a genuine political candidate who has stood against three different Prime Ministers in elections over the years. He is also an intergalactic spacelord with a bucket for a head.
He's also explicitly anti-Brexit. I believe his exact words were "It's going to be a shitshow".
The only bone I'd pick with that is the "going to" part.
+1
Options
FencingsaxIt is difficult to get a man to understand, when his salary depends upon his not understandingGNU Terry PratchettRegistered Userregular
I thought this was a joke post, so I started googling for what MRLP might actually stand for.
...UK elections are so much more fun than ours.
Lord Buckethead is a genuine political candidate who has stood against three different Prime Ministers in elections over the years. He is also an intergalactic spacelord with a bucket for a head.
He's also explicitly anti-Brexit. I believe his exact words were "It's going to be a shitshow".
The only bone I'd pick with that is the "going to" part.
To be fair, at that point it was more correct
Fencingsax on
+7
Options
FencingsaxIt is difficult to get a man to understand, when his salary depends upon his not understandingGNU Terry PratchettRegistered Userregular
The foreign secretary, Dominic Raab, has been accused of “misleading the public” over no-deal Brexit and bringing the post of Foreign Secretary “into disrepute”.
This is absolutely accurate and Raab is a lying piece of shit. He claimed to have spoken often about no deal during the referendum campaign and that people wwere aware of it and that the Tories therefore had a mandate to follow no deal. An utter lie that the BBC, ITV and Channel 4 have now fact-checked and come up empty finding evidence of him doing any such thing.
To be fair, he is simply continuing the tradition of certain previous foreign ministers who were absolute shit at the job.
The foreign secretary, Dominic Raab, has been accused of “misleading the public” over no-deal Brexit and bringing the post of Foreign Secretary “into disrepute”.
This is absolutely accurate and Raab is a lying piece of shit. He claimed to have spoken often about no deal during the referendum campaign and that people wwere aware of it and that the Tories therefore had a mandate to follow no deal. An utter lie that the BBC, ITV and Channel 4 have now fact-checked and come up empty finding evidence of him doing any such thing.
To be fair, he is simply continuing the tradition of certain previous foreign ministers who were absolute shit at the job.
Corbyn's byelection results certainly fit with the theory that the relative success (compared to what was expected) in the 2017 general election was at least as much to do with external factors and circumstance as it was any positive feeling towards Corbyn.
At the time, Labour was the only realistic alternative to a hard brexit. May was busy shouting about "no deal is better than a bad deal", the Lib Dems were dead and there simply wasn't anyone else (outside of the SNP). May continued to compound it with the worst campaign I've seen in my lifetime, both on the personal and party levels. Hid from the press and the public, couldn't handle anything off script, endless inane soundbites, no costings in the manifesto, no real policy either... the list just goes on and on. Corbyn by contrast and to his credit did pretty decently on the campaign trail but it's fairly easy to do so when you have no competition.
This time around the Lib Dems have re-emerged as the leading remain party (again, exluding the SNP here for obvious reasons) and Labour are struggling to provide a reason for remain voters to support them. I can't see it getting better for them anytime soon either.
Johnson could push through a raft of splendid policies with no concern about public sector debt. His focus could be solving the NHS, improving transport links, especially in North, and giving a massive boost to education and housing—all policies he’ll get cross-party support for.
What? Unless "solving" the NHS is final solution type of thing, none of those sound like Conservative Party policy. Which sure, maybe Boris could be a great PM if he weren't Tory and got to lead all the other parties into undoing stupid Tory shit?
This article from LSE professor David Soskice, argues that Boris Johnson' best move to stay in power beyond October is to call a 2nd referendum.
I would like to hope he could be right, since I'm pretty sure Boris only operates based on naked self interest.
Boris can also just ally with the Brexit party, he just has to No Deal, which is the easiest outcome.
Right, but if he keeps his current macho No Deal schtick up to the end (and I don't think he has any principles or beliefs on the topic- just what people want to hear), then he runs the risks of losing a general election as Parliament tries to stop No Deal OR he gets left holding the bag when No Deal actually hits the fan.
I'm not sure blaming the EU and Labour will work if he's the boss man when the economy tanks and all the other innumerable problems of No Deal happen. I could see this being a weak area of the argument though and he actually can and will just deflect blame with a well run propaganda campaign.
Posts
I saw a tweet that said the rumour was at least four pro EU MPs were thinking of defecting to the Lib Dems if they won tonight.
I can't find it now but it's going to be an interesting few days.
Also, that's two by elections in Leave voting constituencies where The Brexit Party have lost.
I presume to try and deflect blame? Because I’m just a dumb Yank but that looks like a disaster for Labour.
-Indiana Solo, runner of blades
Choose Your Own Chat 1 Choose Your Own Chat 2 Choose Your Own Chat 3
The Telegraph always was a Tory paper but it seems to have really gone downhill the last few years (or perhaps I didn’t really notice that it was always this bad).
Choose Your Own Chat 1 Choose Your Own Chat 2 Choose Your Own Chat 3
Choose Your Own Chat 1 Choose Your Own Chat 2 Choose Your Own Chat 3
Serious parties beat joke parties.
I made a game, it has penguins in it. It's pay what you like on Gumroad.
Currently Ebaying Nothing at all but I might do in the future.
Choose Your Own Chat 1 Choose Your Own Chat 2 Choose Your Own Chat 3
So what the Telegraph is saying is that the results were bad for Obama.
Few people on my team can't get to work because of it
Choose Your Own Chat 1 Choose Your Own Chat 2 Choose Your Own Chat 3
I'm looking at that paragraph again, and realising that with a few very, very slight amendments, they could have used it if the Conservatives had won, too. So it may have been intentional laziness.
I'm trying to work out what it means that the Lib Dems took away a Conservative majority of 8000. Even if all the BXP folks had gone Tory, that still would've left them a new majority of around 1500. Not sure that this means the Brexit messaging is working for the Tories, as it sounds like they've lost voters to the right and left, here.
Goodreads
SF&F Reviews blog
Yes, but you see, while the overall number of votes where lower, the quality of the remaining voters are better! Instead of fair-weather Blairite scum, every vote Labour got tonight was a pure true believer Corbyn supporter, which is obviously better for Labours long term prospects.
Note; if this is Corbyn's actual excuse, I demand royalties.
Choose Your Own Chat 1 Choose Your Own Chat 2 Choose Your Own Chat 3
Goes well with "Bollocks to Brexit"
Choose Your Own Chat 1 Choose Your Own Chat 2 Choose Your Own Chat 3
A no-deal event would go about as well as you'd expect. But seeing ti laid out is rather grim.
Goodreads
SF&F Reviews blog
Labour see themselves as being the only alternative to the Tories and the Lib Dems should be getting out of their way.
This is absolutely accurate and Raab is a lying piece of shit. He claimed to have spoken often about no deal during the referendum campaign and that people wwere aware of it and that the Tories therefore had a mandate to follow no deal. An utter lie that the BBC, ITV and Channel 4 have now fact-checked and come up empty finding evidence of him doing any such thing.
Choose Your Own Chat 1 Choose Your Own Chat 2 Choose Your Own Chat 3
The BBC explicitly calls this out in the final line of their story, it's hilarious!
I'll be fine, just give me a minute, a man's got a limit, I can't get a life if my heart's not in it.
I thought this was a joke post, so I started googling for what MRLP might actually stand for.
...UK elections are so much more fun than ours.
Lord Buckethead is a genuine political candidate who has stood against three different Prime Ministers in elections over the years. He is also an intergalactic spacelord with a bucket for a head.
He's also explicitly anti-Brexit. I believe his exact words were "It's going to be a shitshow".
The only bone I'd pick with that is the "going to" part.
To be fair, at that point it was more correct
To be fair, he is simply continuing the tradition of certain previous foreign ministers who were absolute shit at the job.
For example, er, Boris Johnson.
Steam | XBL
At the time, Labour was the only realistic alternative to a hard brexit. May was busy shouting about "no deal is better than a bad deal", the Lib Dems were dead and there simply wasn't anyone else (outside of the SNP). May continued to compound it with the worst campaign I've seen in my lifetime, both on the personal and party levels. Hid from the press and the public, couldn't handle anything off script, endless inane soundbites, no costings in the manifesto, no real policy either... the list just goes on and on. Corbyn by contrast and to his credit did pretty decently on the campaign trail but it's fairly easy to do so when you have no competition.
This time around the Lib Dems have re-emerged as the leading remain party (again, exluding the SNP here for obvious reasons) and Labour are struggling to provide a reason for remain voters to support them. I can't see it getting better for them anytime soon either.
This article from LSE professor David Soskice, argues that Boris Johnson' best move to stay in power beyond October is to call a 2nd referendum.
I would like to hope he could be right, since I'm pretty sure Boris only operates based on naked self interest.
What? Unless "solving" the NHS is final solution type of thing, none of those sound like Conservative Party policy. Which sure, maybe Boris could be a great PM if he weren't Tory and got to lead all the other parties into undoing stupid Tory shit?
Boris can also just ally with the Brexit party, he just has to No Deal, which is the easiest outcome.
Right, but if he keeps his current macho No Deal schtick up to the end (and I don't think he has any principles or beliefs on the topic- just what people want to hear), then he runs the risks of losing a general election as Parliament tries to stop No Deal OR he gets left holding the bag when No Deal actually hits the fan.
I'm not sure blaming the EU and Labour will work if he's the boss man when the economy tanks and all the other innumerable problems of No Deal happen. I could see this being a weak area of the argument though and he actually can and will just deflect blame with a well run propaganda campaign.