Anyone pointing at the polls will be told that they looked bad before the 2017 election as well and Corbyn did much better than expected. If it wasn't that it'd be something else, but the point is they can't let Corbyn go until his faction's control over the succession is assured. Control of the Labour party is more important than electoral success.
tbh if we are going to end up with no deal I'd prefer at least some prep work
I wonder how much they can realistically do in three months.
The consensus appears to be "not enough"
Part of the problem is the sheer unpredictability of second order effects, like the example of national shortages of EU-legal pallets, given that the UK won't be able to stamp their own any more
Oh it's likely to be too little too late but it's actually doing something that isn't (in theory) can kicking so I feel obliged to support it at least a little bit.
If worse comes to worst you can always smuggle onions.
Man, most of the, if not all, the Sci-Fi writers were way off on what a dystopian future would like. Only thing they got right was that the wealthy elite would still be fucking scum. They just assumed we'd have flying cars and murderbots. Instead it seems to be that people can't get into a flame war with the leaders of powerful countries on a shitty internet platform, while the residents of the UK are forced to resort to smuggling in onions in an attempt to avoid starvation. I reiterated, this isn't the darkest timeline, it's still pretty dark because most of the world is run by fucking callous idiots, it's just the dumbest fucking dark timeline.
To be more on point, I'm getting the basic gist is that there will be a ton of flailing under Boris, with like fuck all getting done. This will probably lead to his government collapsing and then who the fuck knows how the resulting election plays out, probably likely to get more of the same given the current trend, unless people see some sanity or enough crazies get in to pull the trigger on a bigger shit show.
most recent yougov poll puts cons up to 32%, about 7% higher than they were before boris
there is a matching 7% shrink in brexit party support
easy to overinterpret but broadly at the moment it looks like unsurprisingly having a farage-style clown leading the cons brings many of those who liked farage back to the cons
shot
chaser
ComRes latest is a lot closer for the two major parties (within a percentage point), but the message of the Conservatives siphoning back the support they lost to BXP is the same.
surrealitychecklonely, but not unloveddreaming of faulty keys and latchesRegistered Userregular
yes I think in some ways this is more significant purely in terms of how positive it makes cons about a general rather than being an accurate prediction of outcome
they will be watching the polling v keenly to measure success of their Brexit mcbrexitface strategy
It's infuriating that the only thing basically preventing us ending Brexit is that the country is only united by their opposition to Jeremy Corbyn as a leader.
I dunno about that. I can't really see many realistic ways to stop Brexit now beyond parliament deciding to revoke Article 50, which they almost certainly won't. A different Labour leader might be more fully for a second referendum, but they'd still be unable to force an election to do anything about it. Maybe they'd be able to coax a few more Tory MPs into a vote of no confidence, then an election, then a second referendum. But it's far, far too late for that now. Corbyn will be the leader if a snap election happens, and he'll be leader through the October 31st deadline.
If they'd had someone other than Corbyn arguing against Brexit for the past couple of years that may have helped lead public opinion to change its mind, but we haven't, so Remain has had basically zero leaders on the English stage (Sturgeon has been saying it's dumb all along).
I don't think any political party is advocating an end to the Brexit process by revoking Article 50. At best they're pushing a second referendum, for which there isn't time before the deadline.
I wonder why no one ever acknowledges that? Do they all think there's gonna be another extension? Under May I always knew there would be it was obvious she never had the courage or the insanity to pull the trigger but with Boris he's a true believer, or at least the sort to believe his own bullshit. I don't think they should doubt he's actually going to do this.
Now with Labour it's obvious why they continue to play along, Corbyn wants to rule the ashes of post Tory brexit Britain, I'm honestly surprised the lib Dems and SNP aren't making more noise about the fact we've reached shit or get off the pot time. No more faffing about talking about elections or referendums, time for that has been and gone. We either call the while thing off or go through with a hard brexit that has no democratic mandate whatsoever.
I bring up the mandate thing because Raab has been trying to rewrite history and claim he campaigned for no deal all along. BBC reality check looked into it and found no evidence of this at all.
Has there been any polling about who people would vote for if there was another extension/referendum/we just killed A50 and said "you know what, this was a bad idea from the off"?
The government line seems to be that people would be lynched for this abject betrayal of democracy in the name of sanity.
Nobody remembers the singer. The song remains.
0
surrealitychecklonely, but not unloveddreaming of faulty keys and latchesRegistered Userregular
worth noting in that comres poll that you probably get a labour minority government - and only 5 brx seats. Results are insanely unstable rn
Has there been any polling about who people would vote for if there was another extension/referendum/we just killed A50 and said "you know what, this was a bad idea from the off"?
The government line seems to be that people would be lynched for this abject betrayal of democracy in the name of sanity.
I don't exactly want to fearmonger but that government line might not be entirely unrealistic. You can't spend three years portraying something as genuinely traitorous and then expect there to be no negative consequences when you do it.
Hell, Jo Cox is already an unfortunate testament to that, and her death happened before the referendum result.
worth noting in that comres poll that you probably get a labour minority government - and only 5 brx seats. Results are insanely unstable rn
I don't think anyone has a worthwhile seat projection model that can cope with the vote largely splitting four ways
Although having said that it would be interesting to see whose models have most accurately called scottish seats in westminster elections, given that the vote has historically been more fragmented up here because of the presence of the SNP and the relative strength of the Lib Dems
I'm just wondering how they're going to handle the pivot to 'we never thought this was a good idea in the first place', which they're going to have to do to survive.
Nobody remembers the singer. The song remains.
0
surrealitychecklonely, but not unloveddreaming of faulty keys and latchesRegistered Userregular
worth noting in that comres poll that you probably get a labour minority government - and only 5 brx seats. Results are insanely unstable rn
I don't think anyone has a worthwhile seat projection model that can cope with the vote largely splitting four ways
Although having said that it would be interesting to see whose models have most accurately called scottish seats in westminster elections, given that the vote has historically been more fragmented up here because of the presence of the SNP and the relative strength of the Lib Dems
yeah it's not like these ge polls have constituency level granularity...
people are going nuts
key calibrator is that 42% got tories a hung parliament in 2017 so we gotta chill about predictions
I'm just wondering how they're going to handle the pivot to 'we never thought this was a good idea in the first place', which they're going to have to do to survive.
I don't think they will
Part of the "will of the people" narrative is the idea that parliamentarians have to implement it, because that was the decision of the referendum. You see this already being used to bat away questions from the media about the more obvious negative outcomes, and it's the foundation of the "remoaner" response
In some ways this is worse, because it means that the government have to double down on othering roughly half of the country
The new head of the EU Commission has said she'd back another Extension "should more time be required" and even the head of the ERG is saying it's crazy to try and renegotiate a deal before October 31st and that they should take more time to do it.
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daveNYCWhy universe hate Waspinator?Registered Userregular
I'm just wondering how they're going to handle the pivot to 'we never thought this was a good idea in the first place', which they're going to have to do to survive.
Pretty sure that blaming it on the EU/Irish/Jews/Stonemasons will do in a pinch.
Shut up, Mr. Burton! You were not brought upon this world to get it!
So this seems like an unequivocally bad sign. Either we're getting No Deal or we've blown £2 billion on fucking nothing.
It means £2 billion is falling down a grift hole lining the pockets of the few people pushing Brexit to profit off the corpse of the UK. You know, Johnson's clique, Rees-Mogg and all them.
Yeah, I'd also say polling probably can't account for how the general public will react to Boris impotently flailing about on a number of things. Doesn't look like he has much of a majority to work with and it seems like a number of issues are now running into the whole "so what the fuck do we do if 'no deal' happens?" So it's not like he has a ton of issues to use as distractions and bolster his favorability with the public. I think he is very much in the spot that Trump was at after 2016, he is pretty much despised by many, but his prospects probably have some room to get worse once people see just how bad he is and can't wave off as "well we won't know until we give him a shot, it might work."
Also the whole thing that this isn't in a vacuum. Boris isn't the only one that can find ways to screw up further. Corbyn is pretty incompetent and I gather the alternatives aren't exactly great either. Hence the whole, who the fuck knows how the next election turns out.
I'm just wondering how they're going to handle the pivot to 'we never thought this was a good idea in the first place', which they're going to have to do to survive.
They're just going to lie. And blame labor/immigrants.
Obviously the comments are full of people shouting "project fear" "scaremongering" etc despite this being the government's own analysis.
It is worth noting that we don't know how likely these scenarios were judged to be. That they could occur doesn't tell us much - they could be worst case scenario, they could be most likely outcome, they could just be a possible scenario thrown out to work through potential consequences.
Still not great, but, well, very little about Brexit is.
I'm going to be disappointed if this doesn't get more airtime.
+4
Werewolf2000adSuckers, I know exactly what went wrong.Registered Userregular
edited August 2019
And so Boris sets his first record as PM: Fastest time to lose a seat in a by-election. At just 11 days, he beats out the previous record holder (Asquith, 1908) by a full five days.
And so Boris sets his first record as PM: Fastest time to lose a seat in a by-election. At just 11 days, he beats out the previous record holder (Asquith, 1908) by a full five days.
I really, really hope Guinness actually certify that for posterity.
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ComRes latest is a lot closer for the two major parties (within a percentage point), but the message of the Conservatives siphoning back the support they lost to BXP is the same.
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they will be watching the polling v keenly to measure success of their Brexit mcbrexitface strategy
If they'd had someone other than Corbyn arguing against Brexit for the past couple of years that may have helped lead public opinion to change its mind, but we haven't, so Remain has had basically zero leaders on the English stage (Sturgeon has been saying it's dumb all along).
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Now with Labour it's obvious why they continue to play along, Corbyn wants to rule the ashes of post Tory brexit Britain, I'm honestly surprised the lib Dems and SNP aren't making more noise about the fact we've reached shit or get off the pot time. No more faffing about talking about elections or referendums, time for that has been and gone. We either call the while thing off or go through with a hard brexit that has no democratic mandate whatsoever.
I bring up the mandate thing because Raab has been trying to rewrite history and claim he campaigned for no deal all along. BBC reality check looked into it and found no evidence of this at all.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49165836
The government line seems to be that people would be lynched for this abject betrayal of democracy in the name of sanity.
I don't exactly want to fearmonger but that government line might not be entirely unrealistic. You can't spend three years portraying something as genuinely traitorous and then expect there to be no negative consequences when you do it.
Hell, Jo Cox is already an unfortunate testament to that, and her death happened before the referendum result.
I don't think anyone has a worthwhile seat projection model that can cope with the vote largely splitting four ways
Although having said that it would be interesting to see whose models have most accurately called scottish seats in westminster elections, given that the vote has historically been more fragmented up here because of the presence of the SNP and the relative strength of the Lib Dems
When's Boris going to put that shit on the side of a bus
yeah it's not like these ge polls have constituency level granularity...
people are going nuts
key calibrator is that 42% got tories a hung parliament in 2017 so we gotta chill about predictions
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I don't think they will
Part of the "will of the people" narrative is the idea that parliamentarians have to implement it, because that was the decision of the referendum. You see this already being used to bat away questions from the media about the more obvious negative outcomes, and it's the foundation of the "remoaner" response
In some ways this is worse, because it means that the government have to double down on othering roughly half of the country
Pretty sure that blaming it on the EU/Irish/Jews/Stonemasons will do in a pinch.
I'd still be willing to bet that's the most likely outcome. That or 1 or 2 seats at maximum. FPTP is not kind to brand new parties.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/01/mark-francois-tory-rebels-vow-to-block-brexit-deal-even-without-backstop
I can't think he's the only one, either.
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It means £2 billion is falling down a grift hole lining the pockets of the few people pushing Brexit to profit off the corpse of the UK. You know, Johnson's clique, Rees-Mogg and all them.
Also the whole thing that this isn't in a vacuum. Boris isn't the only one that can find ways to screw up further. Corbyn is pretty incompetent and I gather the alternatives aren't exactly great either. Hence the whole, who the fuck knows how the next election turns out.
Makes for grim reading.
Obviously the comments are full of people shouting "project fear" "scaremongering" etc despite this being the government's own analysis.
They're just going to lie. And blame labor/immigrants.
It is worth noting that we don't know how likely these scenarios were judged to be. That they could occur doesn't tell us much - they could be worst case scenario, they could be most likely outcome, they could just be a possible scenario thrown out to work through potential consequences.
Still not great, but, well, very little about Brexit is.
"Law and order challenges" seems a bit Troubling.
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https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-mp-defection-lib-dems-brexit-boris-johnson-majority-phillip-lee-a9030576.html
Which of course (assuming today's by-election does what we think) would eliminate Johnson's majority altogether.
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They declared around 3AM for the general election, voting is about 2/3rds of that for the byelection.
Corbyn faithful are already swarming social media.
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Con+Brex+UKIP=50.3%.
That is still troubling.
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I'm going to be disappointed if this doesn't get more airtime.
EVERYBODY WANTS TO SIT IN THE BIG CHAIR, MEG!
I really, really hope Guinness actually certify that for posterity.
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Yes, but they're down 9.6% from last election.
Since it voted almost 52/48 to Leave, it's a small improvement.