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[Hurricane Dorian] has dissipated. Bahamas casualty count still unknown.

a5ehrena5ehren AtlantaRegistered User regular
edited September 9 in Debate and/or Discourse
Split off the now-dead Disaster thread to discuss/update on the immediate threat/impacts of Hurricane Dorian, which is currently forecast to hit SE Florida as a Major Hurricane on Tuesday morning. The uncertainty in the forecast is still quite large, as the exact path is dependent on some upper-level wind features that are notoriously fickle.

Best source of overall information: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Dorian

Latest cone and information (this should update as NHC updates it):
145103_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

Satellite imagery: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/ (not hot-linked due to huge size)

a5ehren on
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Posts

  • a5ehrena5ehren AtlantaRegistered User regular
    Ah, good, the auto-update works.

    NHC issued an interim update to note that Dorian is now officially a Category 3 Major Hurricane, with 115mph winds.

  • AbsoluteZeroAbsoluteZero The new film by Quentin Koopantino Registered User regular
    10mph? Man that's a slow moving storm. I'd be real worried about flooding.

    cs6f034fsffl.jpg
    Bullhead
  • a5ehrena5ehren AtlantaRegistered User regular
    NOAA has a picture for that, too!

    Dorian_rainfall.gif

    4+ inches for basically all of Florida, with 6+ over huge parts of the peninsula.

  • VishNubVishNub Registered User regular
    edited August 30
    I assume all this rain is gonna lead to awful algae blooms as Okeechobee overflows.

    Which, to be clear, is like the tenth biggest concern.

    VishNub on
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  • ViskodViskod Registered User regular
    edited August 30
    I really want this thing to like flatten Mar-a-lago and leave everything else miraculously untouched with no casualties.

    Viskod on
    Artereis wrote: »
    It's not your fault, Viskod. 1 out of every 10 people just happens to be a monster.
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  • JavenJaven Registered User regular
    Viskod wrote: »
    I really want this thing to like flatten Mar-a-lago and leave everything else miraculously untouched with no casualties.

    The path has had it hitting land right at Palm Beach, where the resort is, as a Cat-4, then drastically losing strength from there.

    So not terribly far off, if the model holds?

    Dark Raven XEmerlmaster999JaysonFourMan in the MistsDesktop HippiePolaritieGnome-Interruptus
  • LovelyLovely Registered User regular
    edited August 30
    It'd be cool if it just.... stopped there. Be a modern miracle.
    Viskod wrote: »
    I really want this thing to like flatten Mar-a-lago and leave everything else miraculously untouched with no casualties.

    Fingers crossed! It'd be cool if it just.... stopped there. Forever. Just become a zone of no-going-ness. Just at Mar-a-lago. A modern day miracle. *takes a few minutes to dream*


    *ahem*

    Anyways. I "like" how the cone of uncertainty is just... covering the whole state now. Damn you storm.

    Baah. Well, I think I'm prepared, stuff wise, but mentally.... eeeeeeeeeh.

    Lovely on
    sig.gif
  • a5ehrena5ehren AtlantaRegistered User regular
    The model runs this afternoon are taking a distinct northward trend. Wilmington, NC is as much in play as anywhere in FL.

    ArbitraryDescriptor
  • ArbitraryDescriptorArbitraryDescriptor Registered User regular
    a5ehren wrote: »
    The model runs this afternoon are taking a distinct northward trend. Wilmington, NC is as much in play as anywhere in FL.

    Seems like the slower it goes, the further east that turn starts. If there's something pushing in from the west, and it continues to slow, then it may well land much further north.

    a5ehren
  • MayabirdMayabird Pecking at the keyboardRegistered User regular
    All the models are showing that the Bahamas are going to get pounded. The ones with the earliest northern turns which miss Florida entirely show Dorian stalling over the Bahamas, which would mean catastrophic rains poured on the islands, probably while right-wingers would crow online about "fake news" and climate denial and defunding the NWS.

    There are some other rather scary ones where Dorian doesn't technically make landfall on the US (which is defined as the eye crossing over to land) but scrapes along the coast. The majority of it staying out to sea would basically mean a Harvey effect as the storm can keep pulling moisture from the ocean to dump on the land. There would undoubtedly still be assholes screaming "fake news" because of the lack of technical landfall, even if everything on the coast from West Palm Beach, FL to Wilmington, NC got two feet of rain dropped on them during that course.

    On a lighter side, saw this and thought of @Enc

    chrono_travellerArbitraryDescriptorFencingsaxAbsoluteZeroNitsuaDark Raven XElvenshaeEinzelShadowfireEncAegisshrykeN1tSt4lkerJaysonFourSkeithZilla360MagellMonwynTNTrooperMan in the MistsRchanenMorganVNobeardPolaritieMrVyngaardKoopahTroopahStabbity StyleGnome-InterruptusHappylilElfElldrenelectricitylikesmenever die
  • Edith_Bagot-DixEdith_Bagot-Dix Registered User regular
    I live in the Bahamas and I've been coordinating hurricane preparedness all week. My fund has evacuated a bunch of people. However, from what we're seeing now, the island with most of the population (New Providence, where Nassau is) won't get hit too badly.



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  • MayabirdMayabird Pecking at the keyboardRegistered User regular
    If you have time and don't mind me asking, what kind of prep have you (and the Bahamas) been doing? It's something I've been wondering about the island nations where "just freaking evacuate" isn't an easy option for most people.

    Also are the Bahamas ready for a meter of rain? Because the worst tracks for y'all I've seen are predicting upwards of a meter if it stalls there.

  • EncEnc A Fool with Compassion The Land of Flowers (and Dragons)Registered User regular
    Mayabird wrote: »
    All the models are showing that the Bahamas are going to get pounded. The ones with the earliest northern turns which miss Florida entirely show Dorian stalling over the Bahamas, which would mean catastrophic rains poured on the islands, probably while right-wingers would crow online about "fake news" and climate denial and defunding the NWS.

    There are some other rather scary ones where Dorian doesn't technically make landfall on the US (which is defined as the eye crossing over to land) but scrapes along the coast. The majority of it staying out to sea would basically mean a Harvey effect as the storm can keep pulling moisture from the ocean to dump on the land. There would undoubtedly still be assholes screaming "fake news" because of the lack of technical landfall, even if everything on the coast from West Palm Beach, FL to Wilmington, NC got two feet of rain dropped on them during that course.

    On a lighter side, saw this and thought of @Enc


    Man, I got four cases of Bubbly in the fridge, but with how late this thing keeps delaying, I may yet need to go get more...

  • Edith_Bagot-DixEdith_Bagot-Dix Registered User regular
    So my prep is a bit unusual, I live on what could best be described as a James Bond villain's private compound.

    So major items that have gone on in terms of preparation. Not all of these directly fall on me, but I'm on the leadership so have some oversight of all of it:
    1. Relocating yacht and other boats to shelter.
    2. Move jet to a different country.
    3. Move all cars to sheltered area.
    4. Evac the other executive VP, family, and pets on said jet.
    5. Diesel delivery for generators.
    6. "Dry run" of generators and fail-over to secondary generator.
    7. Issue emergency physical keys to the staff remaining on site in case of catstrophing power failure.
    8. Inventory of food and water supplies.
    9. Establish secondary trading site with our colos in Chicago.
    10. Secure all patio furniture, bicycles, etc in storage.
    11. Various emergency prep stuff with the off-site staff (rally points, timing for head counts, radio checks, etc, etc, etc).
    12. Ongoing comms with all staff.

    This is a bit different from general preparation. The default for most people is boarding things up and hunkering down. The power system has gone to shit over the last little while (since the construction of Bahamar, really) so I think most people are expecting power failures. Flooding is a huge concern for most people because the islands are very low. They are "ready" in the sense that a lot of these people have fairly regular minor flooding when there's a heavy rain anyway. The buildings I'm in are new, high-end construction and are basically fortresses built to withstand a Cat-4, with steel shuttering, build on a hill, etc. I full expect Freeport (the largest settlement that's going to get directly hit) to be fucked, though. Not sure if that fully answers the question.



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  • davidsdurionsdavidsdurions Your Trusty Meatshield Panhandle NebraskaRegistered User regular
    I understand the sentiment with wanting Mar-a-Lago targeted and destroyed but I just have to caution everyone because then that would be an open invitation to Trump to funnel the entire FEMA ten-year budget directly into his bank account.

    PwH4Ipj.jpg
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  • ZavianZavian Senātus Populusque Rōmānus Registered User regular
    edited August 30
    I live in Gainesville FL, really sucks as gas is sold out and I'm almost at E. Luckily I don't have work again until Tuesday, and might close then too. I'm going to try and do a gas run around midnight or 1am to avoid the crowds and use GasBuddy app to try and find a station that refueled. Its like Mad Max out there at the moment.

    Zavian on
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  • KrieghundKrieghund Registered User regular
    I work at a Costco in South Florida. Opening door count was over 700. We ran out of water by 2 pm. Gas line about 20 minutes long. No more generators. Now it's just a matter of waiting for the hit.

  • MadicanMadican No face Registered User regular
    Zavian wrote: »
    I live in Gainesville FL, really sucks as gas is sold out and I'm almost at E. Luckily I don't have work again until Tuesday, and might close then too. I'm going to try and do a gas run around midnight or 1am to avoid the crowds and use GasBuddy app to try and find a station that refueled. Its like Mad Max out there at the moment.

    Neat, you live in the same town my brother is while he's going to school for entomology

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  • JavenJaven Registered User regular
    The push eastward continues. It’s basicaly a straight line now once it makes landfall. Still very subject to change, though most of the various spaghetti models reflect this change. Could this maybe be attributed to the storm slowing down enough for the high pressure system to the north finally getting out of the way?

  • ForarForar #432 Toronto, Ontario, CanadaRegistered User regular
    I understand the sentiment with wanting Mar-a-Lago targeted and destroyed but I just have to caution everyone because then that would be an open invitation to Trump to funnel the entire FEMA ten-year budget directly into his bank account.

    If a single hedge is out of place, he'll try it anyways.

    If he does, it will be another anchor around the necks of Republicans to be called out again and again.

    Yes, it's a bunch of catharsis seeking and nobody expects it to play out as such or as cleanly as fantasized about, but I don't see how he doesn't try to siphon up as many millions as he can if so much as the deck chairs are forced to move a few inches, but boy, watching him tour the devastation of that space (ideally with zero injuries or casualties, as noted above) would be a small beacon of joy, followed by fully legitimate attack ad after attack ad when the GOP fails to check the grifting.

    It'd just be added to the pile, but what isn't these days?

    First they came for the Muslims, and we said NOT TODAY, MOTHERFUCKER!
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  • MayabirdMayabird Pecking at the keyboardRegistered User regular
    Thanks @Edith_Bagot-Dix. Stay safe; Dorian just hit Category 4 already.

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  • EncEnc A Fool with Compassion The Land of Flowers (and Dragons)Registered User regular
    Looks like were gonna have another Matthew here.

    JavenJaysonFour
  • EncEnc A Fool with Compassion The Land of Flowers (and Dragons)Registered User regular
    So shortly after that post i went to get gas here, about 545am. Lines already. This is in central florida.

  • A Dabble Of TheloniusA Dabble Of Thelonius It has been a doozy of a dayRegistered User regular
    Checking in from the Panhandle. Good luck my eastern and southern neighbors.

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  • a5ehrena5ehren AtlantaRegistered User regular
    I've changed the thread title since the official forecast now has Dorian heading for Hilton Head, SC after getting close to the Florida coast. Like I said, still a lot of track uncertainty.

    Elvenshae
  • ZavianZavian Senātus Populusque Rōmānus Registered User regular
    I've been parked on E at a gas station for three hours, still waiting on fuel delivery. They said it might be 8+ hours if at all until next delivery. And the storm isn't even close yet! I wish I knew more about logistics but man I wish they could figure something out to get more fuel to people while the weather is still good

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  • JazzJazz UKRegistered User regular
    Holy shit, @Zavian. You stay safe out there in Mad Max land.

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  • enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    That new track seems like the worst possible case.

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  • BarrakkethBarrakketh Registered User regular
    edited August 31
    Zavian wrote: »
    I've been parked on E at a gas station for three hours, still waiting on fuel delivery. They said it might be 8+ hours if at all until next delivery. And the storm isn't even close yet! I wish I knew more about logistics but man I wish they could figure something out to get more fuel to people while the weather is still good
    I've always stuck with the "stay topped off" strategy if there is a possibility that a hurricane may hit, because people panic way too easily and things turn into a madhouse.
    That new track seems like the worst possible case.
    In what way? For my neck of the woods it looks like less wind speed and less expected rainfall (in the yellow band now). I know some nearby homes got flooded during Irma, and the creek rose enough that about a mile away from my home the road was underwater.

    I haven't really paid attention to how fast it was supposed to lose strength once making landfall back, but things look less bad for Florida in general (both rain and hurricane force wind probability) and more sucky if you live up north. I must admit that living here for 35 years may have skewed my perception of what is considered really bad since I don't know how the other coastal states are prepared for tropical cyclones.

    Barrakketh on
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  • JavenJaven Registered User regular
    Sunday will really be the decider, since gauging the speed of the storm will be the determining factor over whether it's going to turn or not. The earlier it slows, the earlier it'll start to turn north, and the further it'll be away from the coast.

  • enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    In what way? For my neck of the woods it looks like less wind speed and less expected rainfall (in the yellow band now). I know some nearby homes got flooded during Irma, and the creek rose enough that about a mile away from my home the road was underwater.

    Wider impact area as a major hurricane because it stays over water longer. For some people like yourself it might be better but overall it seems like that would be rough.

    Herbert Hoover got 40% of the vote in 1932. Friendly reminder.
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  • QanamilQanamil Registered User regular
    Yeah, crawling up the coast dumping rain while not weakening is hella sucky.

    Basically coming right at me now, so that's cool (Cola is far enough inland that only flooding will be an issue)

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  • MuzzmuzzMuzzmuzz Registered User regular
    Stay safe, my Floridian friends.

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  • ZavianZavian Senātus Populusque Rōmānus Registered User regular
    Jazz wrote: »
    Holy shit, Zavian. You stay safe out there in Mad Max land.

    I was finally able to get gas! Since I was waiting there for 6+ hours they let me get first dibs once the fuel truck came. Now I'm good on gas, have plenty of water (including some frozen in fridge in case power goes out), plenty of food, some beer and herbal supplements. Now it's time to sit back and wait out Dorian, woooo! (and hope a tree doesn't fall on my truck!)

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  • BarrakkethBarrakketh Registered User regular
    Don't forget to fill your bathtub up with water and keep a bucket on hand for flushing the toilet. It's a must-do for extended power outages.

    Rollers are red, chargers are blue....omae wa mou shindeiru
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  • joshofalltradesjoshofalltrades 地獄のようにかわいい あなたは嫉妬深いかRegistered User regular
    Stay safe, Florida people.

    Once Dorian hits make sure you keep an eye out for Phrygian and Mixolydian.

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  • Captain InertiaCaptain Inertia Registered User regular
    Dorian is a good mode.

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  • ZomroZomro Registered User regular
    I'm in Tampa, so it looks like it's not going to impact us too much, if at all. It's a weight off my mind, as Irma gave me hellish anxiety and I don't want to feel that again any time soon. But I feel for my Eastern Florida brethren who are going through that now. Hope you all stay safe and come out unharmed.

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  • quovadis13quovadis13 Registered User regular
    Dorian appears to have heard enough Florida Man stories to decide to nope on outta there

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  • ArbitraryDescriptorArbitraryDescriptor Registered User regular
    edited September 1
    This is the wildest thing to me:

    There's a cruise ship leaving Jacksonville (NE Florida) today, popping down to the Bahamas, and returning Thursday.

    So they're just going to dodge around the storm then follow it back to port, giving only slightly more fucks than a Jaeger pilot.

    ArbitraryDescriptor on
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