So is the play that Boris has convinced the EU that Parliament will cave and accept this deal if they refuse an extension and make it this deal or no deal?
That's how I expect Boris to cast it as.
More likely it's a more nuanced "This deal and the May deal are the ONLY deals we will EVER agree to if you want out of the customs union and end freedom of movement, so there is no reason to keep extending unless something drastic happens."
I wonder if there's the slightest chance he's been meeting with financial advisors who have told him that as an english speaking dickhead, he needs at least one english speaking capitalist democracy to be functional so he can continue his dickheadery and wealth without being hung as a foreign agitator.
Best choice is, as people have mentioned, vote down the deal and immediately revoke article 50. Then have a vote between this deal and remain.
If that actually happens, the headdesking that will occur in the EU will be detected by seismographs in China.
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surrealitychecklonely, but not unloveddreaming of faulty keys and latchesRegistered Userregular
I wonder if there's the slightest chance he's been meeting with financial advisors who have told him that as an english speaking dickhead, he needs at least one english speaking capitalist democracy to be functional so he can continue his dickheadery and wealth without being hung as a foreign agitator.
Best choice is, as people have mentioned, vote down the deal and immediately revoke article 50. Then have a vote between this deal and remain.
If that actually happens, the headdesking that will occur in the EU will be detected by seismographs in China.
It's the only sane course of action, so it will never happen.
Farage could at least pretend that he isn't jelaous that Johnson is the one delivering Brexit and not him, but that would requiere the capability to feel shame.
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ChanusHarbinger of the Spicy Rooster ApocalypseThe Flames of a Thousand Collapsed StarsRegistered Userregular
any resolution to the brexit issue makes farage pointless
So at this point it looks like y'all are getting:
- deal passes parliament
- Johnson calls election and wins majority
Like shooting yourself in the face with two guns, just to be sure.
Is there any reason to expect the Majority opposition will grant him an election right now?
They technically could come up with a convenient excuse for the next 5 years if they wanted, and what’s he going to do? No confidence himself right after his giant win?
“The conservative party has no confidence in the conservative prime minister. We were honestly expecting him to continue his giant string of fuckups, yet somehow he managed to get something right against all odds. We can’t countenance competence in government so we are proposing a new election to that Johnson can obtain a majority and start fucking up again.”
So at this point it looks like y'all are getting:
- deal passes parliament
- Johnson calls election and wins majority
Like shooting yourself in the face with two guns, just to be sure.
Is there any reason to expect the Majority opposition will grant him an election right now?
They technically could come up with a convenient excuse for the next 5 years if they wanted, and what’s he going to do? No confidence himself right after his giant win?
“The conservative party has no confidence in the conservative prime minister. We were honestly expecting him to continue his giant string of fuckups, yet somehow he managed to get something right against all odds. We can’t countenance competence in government so we are proposing a new election to that Johnson can obtain a majority and start fucking up again.”
The opposition refusing to pass any of the government's proposals but also refusing to hold an election would, I would think, be incredibly toxic with voters.
While racing light mechs, your Urbanmech comes in second place, but only because it ran out of ammo.
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surrealitychecklonely, but not unloveddreaming of faulty keys and latchesRegistered Userregular
interestingly the bruges group have come out very much against it
So at this point it looks like y'all are getting:
- deal passes parliament
- Johnson calls election and wins majority
Like shooting yourself in the face with two guns, just to be sure.
Is there any reason to expect the Majority opposition will grant him an election right now?
They technically could come up with a convenient excuse for the next 5 years if they wanted, and what’s he going to do? No confidence himself right after his giant win?
“The conservative party has no confidence in the conservative prime minister. We were honestly expecting him to continue his giant string of fuckups, yet somehow he managed to get something right against all odds. We can’t countenance competence in government so we are proposing a new election to that Johnson can obtain a majority and start fucking up again.”
This is all tactics given the Fixed Term Parliament Act. People will attempt to influence public opinion but no one would really believe a self vonc was a grave humiliation. It is like the Queen's Speech. He has to pretend he is the Prime Minister no matter what happens (loses vote on Queen's Speech, loses this vote, etc.) and hope the pretense eventually provokes the opposition to take down the government. I'm just not sure if there are actual milestones ahead where maintaining the pretense will force the oppositions hand. What happens with the budget? Do we hit a point where the government runs out of money and stops sending out cheques?
“Reject your sense of injury and the injury itself disappears.”
― Marcus Aurelius
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jaziekBad at everythingAnd mad about it.Registered Userregular
So, been reading about how this deal is bad because "it legally splits NI from the rest of the UK and that's unnaceptable".
Excuse my English, but: So? Can't keep a marriage together if the spouses have fundamental differences either. This is a deal that gives both parties involved what they consider important. If NI wants to leave, then let them. Yeah Scotland gets screwed until they put together an Independance referendum, but that's the breaks. I mean, I get why Sturgeon hates it, but she shouldn't have much difficulty organizing said referendum afterwards.
With all the noise Farage is making is he going to run candidates to split the Tory vote? I might die laughing if that's what tips it to Labour assuming there is a GE soon.
Johnson and the tories running around celebrating their "impossible deal" while getting functionally the same deal as may but with less imposed red lines is a very 2019 frustration.
having to constantly battle against feelings instead of facts
So, been reading about how this deal is bad because "it legally splits NI from the rest of the UK and that's unnaceptable".
Excuse my English, but: So? Can't keep a marriage together if the spouses have fundamental differences either. This is a deal that gives both parties involved what they consider important. If NI wants to leave, then let them. Yeah Scotland gets screwed until they put together an Independance referendum, but that's the breaks. I mean, I get why Sturgeon hates it, but she shouldn't have much difficulty organizing said referendum afterwards.
Well, quite a lot of NI doesn’t want to leave the EU at all.
Quite a lot of NI also has very strong ideological opinions about being in the Union, and not being distinct from that Union. The sort of opinions they backed up with paramilitary gunfire. See also: The DUP.
So some parties here are getting what they consider important - mostly Johnson and some of the ERG. The people being alienated, however, grow ever more numerous, and many have a vote in the Commons.
Given it’s going to be tight, why should anyone who isn’t Johnson or the ERG vote for this demonstrably crappy deal?
So an unelected, retiring bureaucrat says: No extension, take this new treaty or just leave.
He is overriding the Benn Act. The EU shows itself to be a thuggocracy - power without accountability.
Appalling people.
Nigel Farage is a MEP for the UK in the European Parliament and head of the Brexit party. He is also a silly goose.
This was in response to Jean Claude Junckers saying that he didn't see a reason for an extension, because an agreement has been found.
So...
1) Junckers is not in a position to make this decision: the EU27 can grant extensions, not Junckers.
2) The Benn act is a UK rule for the UK parliament, forcing the UK goverment to ask for an extension,
3) Rules made by the UK are not EU binding, also, this rule didn't attempt to do so anyway, it just forces Boris to at least ask for an extension.
4) YOU WANTED OUT, NIGEL, IT'S YOUR WHOLE f-ng DEAL TO LEAVE,
5) The accountability in the EU comes through the EU parliament, OF WICH YOU ARE A PART OF, YOU ARE THE ONE SUPPOSED TO PUT CHECKS ON THESE THINGS, YOU PROVIDE ACCOUNTABILITY. MAYBE YOU SHOULD START DOING YOUR JOB
6) I guess Nigel is a remainer now.
7) edit: Junckers also didn't threaten anything, he just didn't see a reason to extend if an agreement has been reached, because you know, an agreement has been reached.
Wasn't Nigel one of the ones screaming about how we couldn't possibly ask for an extension as it a was betrayal of the 50 percent of the country that completely and one hundred percent agreed with him? Or was that someone else? I can't keep track of it.
If it was and he's just against it because the EU says it, it feels like they could have duck season rabbit seasoned him ages ago.
I think the thing that terrifies me most, being not from the UK, is that one vote to leave was enough. Even though in the lead up to the referendum they went on and on about how they would propose it next year and the year after that if it didn’t pass.
Defeat the mad fascists as many times as you like, but if they win even once they will destroy you and everything you love and tell you it’s your own fault.
Wasn't Nigel one of the ones screaming about how we couldn't possibly ask for an extension as it a was betrayal of the 50 percent of the country that completely and one hundred percent agreed with him? Or was that someone else? I can't keep track of it.
If it was and he's just against it because the EU says it, it feels like they could have duck season rabbit seasoned him ages ago.
Yes... yes he was, he's the one always talking about remoaners and how the EU is an undemocratic pork barrel where the French and Germans come to wallow in the mud and enrich themselves on the backs of poor Englanders. He's head of the Brexit party, and claims "no deal is better then an extension" until, I guess, someone in the EU is like "meh, extension..." then he's like "HOW DARE THEY THROW US OUT!"
I think the thing that terrifies me most, being not from the UK, is that one vote to leave was enough. Even though in the lead up to the referendum they went on and on about how they would propose it next year and the year after that if it didn’t pass.
Defeat the mad fascists as many times as you like, but if they win even once they will destroy you and everything you love and tell you it’s your own fault.
"In a 52-48 referendum this would be unfinished business by a long way." - Nigel Farage, 16 May 2016, when he thought Leave would lose
DUP against - does one begin to feel the nietzschean sense we have seen this all before somehow
Oh aye. Unlike the last three times though, this one looks squeaky close. Because politics. FT and BBC numbers have it failing by two or three votes.
I really want May to vote against it out of spite.
ERG numbers are being inflated rn imo. people are making too many assumptions
key point is that uncertainty in the positive direction is low - almost nobody is going to vote for the deal who we don't already know is - but uncertainty in the negative direction is much higher (assuming entire erg votes FOR eg)
DUP against - does one begin to feel the nietzschean sense we have seen this all before somehow
Oh aye. Unlike the last three times though, this one looks squeaky close. Because politics. FT and BBC numbers have it failing by two or three votes.
I really want May to vote against it out of spite.
ERG numbers are being inflated rn imo. people are making too many assumptions
My view is that this doesn't pass. Labour are going to put huge pressure on rebels, DUP is out. Nuff said. I just have no idea what happens after. My guess is EU approves extension but I'm honestly not certain. Keeping the ball in the air creates a better chance for remain but it prolongs uncertainty and I'm not sure the EU is all that excited about keeping a divided and uncooperative UK around. They have plans that would be easier to move toward without the UK being a thorn in their side. That said, I'd still short £.
“Reject your sense of injury and the injury itself disappears.”
― Marcus Aurelius
surrealitychecklonely, but not unloveddreaming of faulty keys and latchesRegistered Userregular
if news programmes dont shape up and stop credulously repeating the cummings line that HE GOT THE DEAL WITHOUT THE BACKSTOP... THEY SAID HE COULDNT... BUT HE DID
the only reason this gets voted through is if cons get the sense from their hard brexit ultras that this is some kind of triumph. the narrative is all they care about so dont give it to them u maroons
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SnicketysnickThe Greatest Hype Man inWesterosRegistered Userregular
But this one has a StopBack, totally different, gz Boris you total ledge
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That's how I expect Boris to cast it as.
More likely it's a more nuanced "This deal and the May deal are the ONLY deals we will EVER agree to if you want out of the customs union and end freedom of movement, so there is no reason to keep extending unless something drastic happens."
If that actually happens, the headdesking that will occur in the EU will be detected by seismographs in China.
look these unelected eurocrats are all the same, brexit means brexit, etc
It's the only sane course of action, so it will never happen.
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he knows this
Is there any reason to expect the Majority opposition will grant him an election right now?
They technically could come up with a convenient excuse for the next 5 years if they wanted, and what’s he going to do? No confidence himself right after his giant win?
“The conservative party has no confidence in the conservative prime minister. We were honestly expecting him to continue his giant string of fuckups, yet somehow he managed to get something right against all odds. We can’t countenance competence in government so we are proposing a new election to that Johnson can obtain a majority and start fucking up again.”
The opposition refusing to pass any of the government's proposals but also refusing to hold an election would, I would think, be incredibly toxic with voters.
this is broadly good news. let us hope various brexit ultras split as many erg as possible
This is all tactics given the Fixed Term Parliament Act. People will attempt to influence public opinion but no one would really believe a self vonc was a grave humiliation. It is like the Queen's Speech. He has to pretend he is the Prime Minister no matter what happens (loses vote on Queen's Speech, loses this vote, etc.) and hope the pretense eventually provokes the opposition to take down the government. I'm just not sure if there are actual milestones ahead where maintaining the pretense will force the oppositions hand. What happens with the budget? Do we hit a point where the government runs out of money and stops sending out cheques?
― Marcus Aurelius
Path of Exile: themightypuck
Christ does he still have a show on LBC?
It's been years since I've had the radio on, for some reason I just thought he'd given that up
Well, what else is Farage gonna do with his time? His job? Of course not.
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Path of Exile: themightypuck
Excuse my English, but: So? Can't keep a marriage together if the spouses have fundamental differences either. This is a deal that gives both parties involved what they consider important. If NI wants to leave, then let them. Yeah Scotland gets screwed until they put together an Independance referendum, but that's the breaks. I mean, I get why Sturgeon hates it, but she shouldn't have much difficulty organizing said referendum afterwards.
having to constantly battle against feelings instead of facts
Well, quite a lot of NI doesn’t want to leave the EU at all.
Quite a lot of NI also has very strong ideological opinions about being in the Union, and not being distinct from that Union. The sort of opinions they backed up with paramilitary gunfire. See also: The DUP.
So some parties here are getting what they consider important - mostly Johnson and some of the ERG. The people being alienated, however, grow ever more numerous, and many have a vote in the Commons.
Given it’s going to be tight, why should anyone who isn’t Johnson or the ERG vote for this demonstrably crappy deal?
Goodreads
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If I may offer for your viewing pleasure:
Nigel Farage
This was in response to Jean Claude Junckers saying that he didn't see a reason for an extension, because an agreement has been found.
So...
1) Junckers is not in a position to make this decision: the EU27 can grant extensions, not Junckers.
2) The Benn act is a UK rule for the UK parliament, forcing the UK goverment to ask for an extension,
3) Rules made by the UK are not EU binding, also, this rule didn't attempt to do so anyway, it just forces Boris to at least ask for an extension.
4) YOU WANTED OUT, NIGEL, IT'S YOUR WHOLE f-ng DEAL TO LEAVE,
5) The accountability in the EU comes through the EU parliament, OF WICH YOU ARE A PART OF, YOU ARE THE ONE SUPPOSED TO PUT CHECKS ON THESE THINGS, YOU PROVIDE ACCOUNTABILITY. MAYBE YOU SHOULD START DOING YOUR JOB
6) I guess Nigel is a remainer now.
7) edit: Junckers also didn't threaten anything, he just didn't see a reason to extend if an agreement has been reached, because you know, an agreement has been reached.
So... Tada!
The Aristocrats!
If it was and he's just against it because the EU says it, it feels like they could have duck season rabbit seasoned him ages ago.
Defeat the mad fascists as many times as you like, but if they win even once they will destroy you and everything you love and tell you it’s your own fault.
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Yes... yes he was, he's the one always talking about remoaners and how the EU is an undemocratic pork barrel where the French and Germans come to wallow in the mud and enrich themselves on the backs of poor Englanders. He's head of the Brexit party, and claims "no deal is better then an extension" until, I guess, someone in the EU is like "meh, extension..." then he's like "HOW DARE THEY THROW US OUT!"
Oh aye. Unlike the last three times though, this one looks squeaky close. Because politics. FT and BBC numbers have it failing by two or three votes.
I really want May to vote against it out of spite.
Goodreads
SF&F Reviews blog
"In a 52-48 referendum this would be unfinished business by a long way." - Nigel Farage, 16 May 2016, when he thought Leave would lose
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ERG numbers are being inflated rn imo. people are making too many assumptions
key point is that uncertainty in the positive direction is low - almost nobody is going to vote for the deal who we don't already know is - but uncertainty in the negative direction is much higher (assuming entire erg votes FOR eg)
My view is that this doesn't pass. Labour are going to put huge pressure on rebels, DUP is out. Nuff said. I just have no idea what happens after. My guess is EU approves extension but I'm honestly not certain. Keeping the ball in the air creates a better chance for remain but it prolongs uncertainty and I'm not sure the EU is all that excited about keeping a divided and uncooperative UK around. They have plans that would be easier to move toward without the UK being a thorn in their side. That said, I'd still short £.
― Marcus Aurelius
Path of Exile: themightypuck
Huge if true.
― Marcus Aurelius
Path of Exile: themightypuck
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This may be a testing of waters.
― Marcus Aurelius
Path of Exile: themightypuck
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No idea what, though, it's going to be procedural carnage
Edit: the SNP's amendment is literally "delete everything and replace it with extension and general election"
(Radio Clyde is a reputable Scottish Central belt radio station)
almost like...and bear with me here...Corbyn is pro Brexit
Real fight starts now November 1st.
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the only reason this gets voted through is if cons get the sense from their hard brexit ultras that this is some kind of triumph. the narrative is all they care about so dont give it to them u maroons
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