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The Day the Music Died - Prelude: Concerning Charlie Horse - A [Phalla] - It's Over!

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Posts

  • 38thDoe38thDoe lets never be stupid again wait lets always be stupid foreverRegistered User regular
    I'm just trying to untangle this mess from last night.
    Apparently Lucedes and Phyphor were seen as evil, and they all knew that Mamawolf was the vig apparently according to fab. Now we all know.
    Then Ghostly Clockwork dies as mafia.
    Mamawolf lives.

    So. Do we think Lucedes and Phyphor were evil? If so then why did mamawolf survive. I guess its possible that Fab/Lucedes could be a guard. Was clockwork actually mafia or just made to look that way. I feel like there is a lot to look into here.
    If Clockwork was made to look like mafia then the random wagon onto them seems pretty suspicious as are people who were active at that time.
    If lucedes is good, did the mafia block her results and paint her evil? That seems overkill?

    We have a bunch of people who are barely active here. If this is you I'd love to hear your take and or at least vote so you don't go inactive.

    oldmanken obifett assuran.

    Maybe Lucedes' death tells us the most? If we can trust death results. If anyone else has thoughts I'd love to hear them.



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  • 38thDoe38thDoe lets never be stupid again wait lets always be stupid foreverRegistered User regular
  • oldmankenoldmanken Registered User regular
    Bluecyan wrote: »
    For that manner oldmanken is up there but is more active today at least.

    Have I espoused the joys of no-meeting Friday?

  • BluecyanBluecyan I'm the mother flippin' RhymenocerousRegistered User regular
    I think it is a distinct possibility that the mafia is not in control of the 2nd kill. There is no mafia kill in the OoO, just items and actions and the fact that Lukey was painted (according to H3) and killed on the same night suggests they were not coordinated hits.

    The alternate is that it was a painted village on death which would explain the coordination but would also mean Disc was mafia and then killed by the mafia which... would be a bold move.

    It also has precedence, last locus game we had a vig (or rather DA) and an SK (until the SK turned mafia). My guess is they have a bus driver to counter act but I haven't heard any claim to that effect yet, so far all of mama's hits have been on target.

  • oldmankenoldmanken Registered User regular
    So, I feel like the answer on Phyphor being mafia was settled... when he showed up as being mafia. There may be a mechanic which allows for seering the wrong alignment, but I am doubtful that would carry over into the day outcome and narration.

    I'm not buying the argument for Lucedes, as he drove the vote onto Phyphor. I'm not certain of anything in that regard, but I'm less inclined to believe they are mafia. Which is why when Sir Fab drove the vote onto Lucedes yesterday, I shifted my vote from premium to him.

  • JPantsJPants Registered User regular
    38thDoe wrote: »

    Maybe Lucedes' death tells us the most? If we can trust death results. If anyone else has thoughts I'd love to hear them.

    I asked if death results were accurate/reliable and got CD'd. Don't think this is an assumption we can run with.

  • JPantsJPants Registered User regular
    Bluecyan wrote: »
    I think it is a distinct possibility that the mafia is not in control of the 2nd kill. There is no mafia kill in the OoO, just items and actions and the fact that Lukey was painted (according to H3) and killed on the same night suggests they were not coordinated hits.

    The vig kill has been claimed as an item, and for that matter the vote kill is represented by the Golden Fiddle. Pretty reasonable for the Mafia kill to be a mafia item. The difference between Lukey's seer results anddeath results same night are easily explained by a mafia action (make Lukey look mafia tonight) followed by an Investigation (he's mafia) followed by a mafia item (kill disc) followed by death result (Lukey be village!). Of course it's also easily explained by "Disc is a death miller" so that unfortunately doesn't help much at all.

  • MamaWolfMamaWolf The wolf pack guides all to safetyRegistered User regular
    Wow I had a busy day at work today and just now am able to catch up.

    For people who are wondering, yes, my vig power comes from an item that I received with my role.

    I am unsure about mechanics in this game, though I haven't had a chance to try out mechanics since my item only let's me use the ability(vig) it gives me. For what it's worth, I actually trust Lucedes is village. They've had 3 days now to try and kill me and unless I have had a guardian(THANK YOU <3) on me from day 1, they should be good.

    I've never played with Oldmanken, so I don't know how they usually play, so I have no read on them.

    Obi, maybe?? I don't get this game, so I don't know. I'm gonna think on it and vote later.

    "May the moon watch over you and keep you safe through the night, 'till the morning comes and MamaWolf can protect you through the day"
  • BluecyanBluecyan I'm the mother flippin' RhymenocerousRegistered User regular
    JPants wrote: »
    Bluecyan wrote: »
    I think it is a distinct possibility that the mafia is not in control of the 2nd kill. There is no mafia kill in the OoO, just items and actions and the fact that Lukey was painted (according to H3) and killed on the same night suggests they were not coordinated hits.

    The vig kill has been claimed as an item, and for that matter the vote kill is represented by the Golden Fiddle. Pretty reasonable for the Mafia kill to be a mafia item. The difference between Lukey's seer results anddeath results same night are easily explained by a mafia action (make Lukey look mafia tonight) followed by an Investigation (he's mafia) followed by a mafia item (kill disc) followed by death result (Lukey be village!). Of course it's also easily explained by "Disc is a death miller" so that unfortunately doesn't help much at all.

    I agree, all of these actions have a clear order of action for how they played out and fit in the OoO. The reason I think the mafia might not control the kill is WHY would they paint and kill the same target? Seems a waste of an action.

    Also, if the mafia controls the kill and Disc was somehow a death miller, then that meant the mafia just killed their own member, that seems unlikely unless there are two mafia. Could explain the corrupted tag in the results.

    The alternate is the mafia is in control of the kill and for some reason haven't been going after mama. Either they believe a guard is out there or they are fine with mama being able to kill nightly.

    If I had to pick between the three options I would guess the fear of guard but I wouldn't discount the other two options.

    MamaWolf
  • JPantsJPants Registered User regular
    Well we did have an extra kill last night. Could have been an SK killed disc, or a one off item.

    I didn't see Kilnaga's death in the narration, and I don't think it was from innactivus.... wonder what's going on there.

    I'm currently leaning towards Obi for the reason mentioned above: This game seems like the kind I'd expect him to go all in on solving and I haven't seen that. Only thing keeping me from voting that way is, this is the kind of game I would expect *myself* to go all in on and I haven't had the chance yet, also there is a lot of private stuff going on as well so he could be doing that (like I have been, no secret there), so it would be pretty hypocritical to vote for him for those reasons.
    Gonna drop a placeholder on Assuran for the reason mentioned above, mostly being fairly quiet.

    Also for what it's worth I do think ClockworkGhost was actually a mafia and not a death miller but that's just based on him fitting the "first time mafia being super quiet" sterotype (and I think this is their first game here unless they're from way long ago).

  • Sir FabulousSir Fabulous Malevolent Squid God Registered User regular
    I think Lucedes is probably village, friends. I came out yesterday with accusations because I was excited about seeing red, but the narrative around her asking to be seered and talking with Mamawolf was sort of weird so when I saw some decent evidence that she was just painted the wrong way everything lined up much better.

    Vote-wise I'm not sure I agree with the Obi calls. Although my perception of Obi is as someone who gets super into the mechanics of complicated games, I think that may be a bit outdated. I think he's busier these days, and I don't recall him being particularly active in most of the recent Phallas. I did die early last game though so I might have missed that.

    I think someone who more accurately fits the bill of 'somewhat subdued frequent poster' is LostNinja

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  • Sir FabulousSir Fabulous Malevolent Squid God Registered User regular
    Whoops, LostNinja

    pickup-sig.php?name=Orthanc

    I won $200 playing mafia once.
    Check out the VODs here
  • Moridin889Moridin889 Registered User regular
    MamaWolf wrote: »
    Wow I had a busy day at work today and just now am able to catch up.

    For people who are wondering, yes, my vig power comes from an item that I received with my role.

    I am unsure about mechanics in this game, though I haven't had a chance to try out mechanics since my item only let's me use the ability(vig) it gives me. For what it's worth, I actually trust Lucedes is village. They've had 3 days now to try and kill me and unless I have had a guardian(THANK YOU <3) on me from day 1, they should be good.

    I've never played with Oldmanken, so I don't know how they usually play, so I have no read on them.

    Obi, maybe?? I don't get this game, so I don't know. I'm gonna think on it and vote later.

    I mean, you've also only hit villagers, so why would they kill you if they have you masoned/friendly?

  • MamaWolfMamaWolf The wolf pack guides all to safetyRegistered User regular
    Moridin889 wrote: »
    MamaWolf wrote: »
    Wow I had a busy day at work today and just now am able to catch up.

    For people who are wondering, yes, my vig power comes from an item that I received with my role.

    I am unsure about mechanics in this game, though I haven't had a chance to try out mechanics since my item only let's me use the ability(vig) it gives me. For what it's worth, I actually trust Lucedes is village. They've had 3 days now to try and kill me and unless I have had a guardian(THANK YOU <3) on me from day 1, they should be good.

    I've never played with Oldmanken, so I don't know how they usually play, so I have no read on them.

    Obi, maybe?? I don't get this game, so I don't know. I'm gonna think on it and vote later.

    I mean, you've also only hit villagers, so why would they kill you if they have you masoned/friendly?

    True, my aim is quite off. Not being able to seer anyone, and realizing that not all seer calls may even be valid, makes it a lot harder.

    "May the moon watch over you and keep you safe through the night, 'till the morning comes and MamaWolf can protect you through the day"
  • LostNinjaLostNinja Registered User regular
    I think I could go with the Assuran wagon tonight with Obi being semi-verified village.

  • JPantsJPants Registered User regular
    Since we have good evidence that people can have their alignments painted for seerings, i would advise people to A) not tell others before investiating/questioning them/their Personas and B) not to investigate anyone whose role is revealed in the thread that day. For example i will be trusting no reports on Sally Ann that come out from tonights actions (sorry lost). It's a bit paranoid but going forward i'm going to be wanting confirmation across 2 nights on persona status (I do think the results of Questioning results are *probably* safe but that's still an assumption.)

    Bluecyan
  • oldmankenoldmanken Registered User regular
    Going to go with Assuran for now.

  • ObiFettObiFett Use the Force As You WishRegistered User regular
    Vote doesn't close till end of weekend, right?

  • LostNinjaLostNinja Registered User regular
    ObiFett wrote: »
    Vote doesn't close till end of weekend, right?

    Today is a normal day, tomorrow is long.

    H3Knuckles
  • ObiFettObiFett Use the Force As You WishRegistered User regular
    Well shit. I was planning on looking into today over the weekend.

  • Sir FabulousSir Fabulous Malevolent Squid God Registered User regular
    Don't worry about it just toss your vote on the leader and call it a day.

    I think it's ObiFett right now?

    pickup-sig.php?name=Orthanc

    I won $200 playing mafia once.
    Check out the VODs here
    Fry
  • ObiFettObiFett Use the Force As You WishRegistered User regular
    Fwiw, I have been vocal and do think we have a good solution for this game: use your powers and then use those results to create your own small networks. If we all do that, the mafia can't win. Guess what I'm doing? and then take a second guess why that means I'm not talkative in thread?

    As far as mafia, I think Assuran (?) was right a few days ago when he noted that the mafia were eliminating players known for their soft networking ability.

    This makes me question why Zombie Hero wasn't killed early. Additionally Zombie Hero is on my shortlist of players who are good enough they'd recognize that they need to kill soft networkers.

  • BluecyanBluecyan I'm the mother flippin' RhymenocerousRegistered User regular
    ObiFett wrote: »
    Fwiw, I have been vocal and do think we have a good solution for this game: use your powers and then use those results to create your own small networks. If we all do that, the mafia can't win. Guess what I'm doing? and then take a second guess why that means I'm not talkative in thread?

    As far as mafia, I think Assuran (?) was right a few days ago when he noted that the mafia were eliminating players known for their soft networking ability.

    This makes me question why Zombie Hero wasn't killed early. Additionally Zombie Hero is on my shortlist of players who are good enough they'd recognize that they need to kill soft networkers.

    Were the people you use powers on aware you are using powers on them?

  • BluecyanBluecyan I'm the mother flippin' RhymenocerousRegistered User regular
    Somebody claiming to be Janie has contacted me. If you are aware of anyone else claiming to be (or are yourself) Janie I would be interested in that information.

  • shalmeloshalmelo sees no evil Registered User regular
    I don't have a super strong read for today so I'm going to register my suspicion of JPants, who seems kind of invested in making us doubt the narration. I'm of the opinion that in a game where seer readings can be muddled, the hosts aren't going to double down and ALSO make the narration unreliable, but what do I know, maybe Austin and Locus are just cruel like that.

    Steam ID: Shalmelo || LoL: melo2boogaloo || tweets
  • JPantsJPants Registered User regular
    shalmelo wrote: »
    I don't have a super strong read for today so I'm going to register my suspicion of JPants, who seems kind of invested in making us doubt the narration. I'm of the opinion that in a game where seer readings can be muddled, the hosts aren't going to double down and ALSO make the narration unreliable, but what do I know, maybe Austin and Locus are just cruel like that.

    When did I do that?! I referenced the narration as a way to shoot down the idea that someone died red but was actually green (ClockworkGhost) but that was in no way suggestion an unreliable narration.

    Oh, and I pointed out a death that wasn't narrated but again, not suggestion to distrust the narration, just pointing it out in case anyone had an explanation.

  • MamaWolfMamaWolf The wolf pack guides all to safetyRegistered User regular
    When in doubt train it out.....Assuran

    "May the moon watch over you and keep you safe through the night, 'till the morning comes and MamaWolf can protect you through the day"
  • AustinP0027AustinP0027 Registered User regular
    1 hour and 45 mins left, and not everyone has voted.

  • Moridin889Moridin889 Registered User regular
    Sorry super shorthanded at work today, hoping there would be some epic reveal or clever deductions.

    If we're publicly revealing things I seered who blue puttee was day 2 but wanted to check their alignment before chatting with them. Expect a PM.

    Assuran

    I still think Lucedes is a better call, but time will tell

  • Romantic UndeadRomantic Undead Registered User regular
    Assuran is the consensus now?

    Works for me.

    I don't think I revealed this in the thread yet, but I Investigated Helmethead (Cythraul) on day 1 and Miss Brown (Auralynx) on day 2, both of whom then went ahead and died before I knew who the roles belonged to. I got caught up in work stuff yesterday and forgot to put in an order, so no seer for day 3.

    3DS FC: 1547-5210-6531
  • Romantic UndeadRomantic Undead Registered User regular
    BTW, my wife texted me while I was on the way home from work today:

    "Hun, what is this forum thread you have open on the computer? "The devil came down to Newfoundland"? That better not be about me!"

    3DS FC: 1547-5210-6531
    38thDoeBluecyanMamaWolfoldmankenH3KnucklesCythraulLostNinjakimeFry
  • 38thDoe38thDoe lets never be stupid again wait lets always be stupid foreverRegistered User regular
    BTW, my wife texted me while I was on the way home from work today:

    "Hun, what is this forum thread you have open on the computer? "The devil came down to Newfoundland"? That better not be about me!"

    Thread won.



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    BluecyanoldmankenH3KnucklesObiFettLostNinja
  • BluecyanBluecyan I'm the mother flippin' RhymenocerousRegistered User regular
    Assuran is the consensus now?

    Works for me.

    I don't think I revealed this in the thread yet, but I Investigated Helmethead (Cythraul) on day 1 and Miss Brown (Auralynx) on day 2, both of whom then went ahead and died before I knew who the roles belonged to. I got caught up in work stuff yesterday and forgot to put in an order, so no seer for day 3.

    Ummm why did you investigate an already dead role on day 2?

    JPants
  • 38thDoe38thDoe lets never be stupid again wait lets always be stupid foreverRegistered User regular
    Everyone except for Assuran is okay with Assuran huh?



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  • LucedesLucedes i'm not real, and i deny Registered User regular
    i don't know anything about Assuran

    but i really would like the mafia to have to waste a kill on me and not die to the vote

    please kill me i'm terrible at networking

  • H3KnucklesH3Knuckles Jack of all interests... ...master of noneRegistered User regular
    edited November 9
    JPants wrote: »
    shalmelo wrote: »
    I don't have a super strong read for today so I'm going to register my suspicion of JPants, who seems kind of invested in making us doubt the narration. I'm of the opinion that in a game where seer readings can be muddled, the hosts aren't going to double down and ALSO make the narration unreliable, but what do I know, maybe Austin and Locus are just cruel like that.

    When did I do that?! I referenced the narration as a way to shoot down the idea that someone died red but was actually green (ClockworkGhost) but that was in no way suggestion an unreliable narration.

    Oh, and I pointed out a death that wasn't narrated but again, not suggestion to distrust the narration, just pointing it out in case anyone had an explanation.

    Point of order that someone (Lukey) seered red but was narrated green.

    Also, kilnaga missed two successive days of voting, I don't think they got narration because I think the host withdrew them.

    H3Knuckles on
    If you're curious about my icon; it's an update of the early Lego Castle theme's "Black Falcons" faction.
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  • H3KnucklesH3Knuckles Jack of all interests... ...master of noneRegistered User regular
    I guess Assuran.

    If you're curious about my icon; it's an update of the early Lego Castle theme's "Black Falcons" faction.
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  • H3KnucklesH3Knuckles Jack of all interests... ...master of noneRegistered User regular
    edited November 9
    This is killing me, because the mechanics for this game are very interesting, and I've been wanting to try making a big dive into soft networking like I used to back when I first started out playing phallas, but I've had a lot of disruptions keeping me away and my head just hasn't been in it so far. I'm hoping to be able to sit down and devote some time into comparing notes with Virgil's and digging into the voting records this weekend to see if I can form a theory instead of just blindly counting on others' voting each night like I have been.

    Edit: looks like everyone has a vote in.

    H3Knuckles on
    If you're curious about my icon; it's an update of the early Lego Castle theme's "Black Falcons" faction.
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    Lucedes
  • LucedesLucedes i'm not real, and i deny Registered User regular
    i can't do this, this lazy train lifestyle is just not me

    i'm going off the rails for JPants.

  • Moridin889Moridin889 Registered User regular
    Yeah, I have the most free time over the weekend to do this, and it's just going to be suspense and poring over the thread for days...

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