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Discuss the [2020 Primary] and Not Other Stuff

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Posts

  • DoodmannDoodmann Registered User regular
    edited December 3
    Doodmann wrote: »
    RedTide wrote: »
    First jewish president still on the board

    Not exactly the most marginalized of voices, but yes a first none the less.

    We have had exactly 1 non-christian president, and he was catholic...and was assassinated.

    So like, it would be a pretty big deal for us from a historical perspective.

    Catholics are a type of Christian.

    I know that, I would assume most people on this board will know and agree that's obvious. But that did not change the fact that people campaigned on and truly believed JFK was going to be more loyal to the pope than the united states.

    The US has a long history of being a Christian™ ™ Nation

    Doodmann on
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  • RedTideRedTide Registered User regular
    Doodmann wrote: »
    RedTide wrote: »
    First jewish president still on the board

    Not exactly the most marginalized of voices, but yes a first none the less.

    We have had exactly 1 non-christian president, and he was catholic...and was assassinated.

    So like, it would be a pretty big deal for us from a historical perspective.

    As noted, Catholics are Christians.

    To elaborate further, electing a Non Christian of any strip would of course matter.

    But like we literally just elected the first two Muslim women, ever, to Congress in 2018.

    Our Current Senate has nine Jewish members alone, demographically representing 2% of our population.

    Lots of folks of all sorts of different stripes are a lot further away from our levers of power and are essentially invisible in our elected bodies.

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  • Styrofoam SammichStyrofoam Sammich WANT. 5386-8443-8937Registered User regular
    Doodmann wrote: »
    Doodmann wrote: »
    RedTide wrote: »
    First jewish president still on the board

    Not exactly the most marginalized of voices, but yes a first none the less.

    We have had exactly 1 non-christian president, and he was catholic...and was assassinated.

    So like, it would be a pretty big deal for us from a historical perspective.

    Catholics are a type of Christian.

    I know that, I would assume most people on this board will know and agree that's obvious. But that did not change the fact that people campaigned on and truly believed JFK was going to be more loyal to the pope than the united states.

    The US has a long history of being a Christian™ ™

    Its the same thing that kind of squicks me out when people dismiss the potentially first jewish president as another white guy. The whiteness of Jews has very much not been a fact of American life.

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  • lonelyahavalonelyahava Call me Ahava Move to New ZealandRegistered User regular
    I'm sad to see Harris go. But hopeful that now she can focus on the upcoming impeachment hearing in the Senate.

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  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    PantsB wrote: »
    shryke wrote: »
    PantsB wrote: »
    Mazzyx wrote: »


    Breaking News: Senator Kamala Harris is dropping out of the race for the Democratic presidential nomination after months of slumping poll numbers, a dramatic comedown after a promising start

    NYT is a newspaper sometimes.

    Harris has dropped out.

    I think she would have been one of the stronger general election candidates and better potential Presidents in the field. Along with most of the field she went too hard trying to appeal to Bernie leftists who were never going to vote for her instead of committing to going for Biden's base and the Obama core liberals. She endorsed and campaigned for Obama in early 07, was on the forefront of marriage equality and has the obvious racial pluses in the primary to go after those two groups of voters. I think trying to play both sides lost her credibility with both sides.

    I also think she had the best shot of breaking Biden's hold of black voters. I am having a hard time seeing who takes them now.

    I would assume this is good for Warren. Harris and Warren were my top 2, my wife's top 2, my mother's top 2, my sister's two 2....

    I think the evidence suggests this was not true and I really think that maybe that's what hurt her the most.

    That's the result but I also think it's related. I think if you come out backing leftist/radical programs like she did early you lose credibility with some communities. Biden has been the safe choice and she undercut her argument in that way IMO. Booker had the same issue IMO.

    If they had run as liberals instead of progressives I think they would have come across as more authentic and would have had more appeal. It is impossible to know though so I could be wrong.

    I think it's the other way around. Their fundamental problem is that unlike Warren or Sanders, they needed to crack Biden's support base just to exist. They can't survive without that, whereas Sanders and Warren can both coast along on different bases.

    And it very much seems from what I've read that Biden's support is all about electability. That's the undercurrent of this entire race and every issue in it. And so Harris or whomever else needs to not so much position themselves well (although that's somewhat of a necessity) but to also someone break Biden's electability. They need to not just say vote for me, they need a compelling reason for why those people shouldn't vote for Biden. And they had nothing there that mattered to Biden's support base, especially among blacks. No one so far has found that.

    It's not really about them coming out as too radical, which I wouldn't even really agree with. Because it basically doesn't matter what they come out as so long as Biden is already right there.

  • MagellMagell Sphinx! Parts UnknownRegistered User regular
    While I'm glad Harris dropped out, its not great that a sitting Senator has to drop out while several billionaires throw enough money around to stay in the primary race.

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  • JragghenJragghen Registered User regular
    edited December 3
  • LadaiLadai Registered User regular
    edited December 3
    I just keep looking at that list of candidates who have qualified for the next debate:

    Biden
    Sanders
    Warren
    Buttigieg
    Klobuchar
    Steyer

    Also, the only others who are even close to qualifying are Gabbard and Yang.

    That is not the list of candidates I thought we'd be discussing at this point in the process.

    Ladai on
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  • enc0reenc0re Registered User regular
    Ladai wrote: »
    I just keep looking at that list of candidates who have qualified for the next debate:

    Biden
    Sanders
    Warren
    Buttigieg
    Klobuchar
    Steyer

    Also, the only others who are even close to qualifying are Gabbard and Yang.

    That is not the list of candidates I thought we'd be discussing at this point in the process.

    I would like that field of six. Let's hope no one else qualifies.

  • Styrofoam SammichStyrofoam Sammich WANT. 5386-8443-8937Registered User regular
    Klobuchar is truly, truly awful

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  • lonelyahavalonelyahava Call me Ahava Move to New ZealandRegistered User regular
    I'd be happy with that list if we could remove Steyer and put Castro or Booker there instead.

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  • PolaritiePolaritie Sleepy Registered User regular
    Klobuchar is truly, truly awful

    She's very popular in MN... not sure how she polls in the surrounding states offhand.

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  • LadaiLadai Registered User regular
    Castro is the only candidate who has dropped off who I really wish was still in it.

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  • RedTideRedTide Registered User regular
    Ladai wrote: »
    Castro is the only candidate who has dropped off who I really wish was still in it.

    Agreed.

    Even when Harris was here, Klobuchar was the pre eminent (non billionaire, non circus) "Why-are-you-here-still?" candidate.

    No message, no constituency, no special talents.

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  • CoinageCoinage The Naming of Cats is a difficult matter Registered User regular
    I've read these threads and my brain refuses to retain any information about Klobuchar, I don't know how she's polling well enough with normal people.

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  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    edited December 3
    RedTide wrote: »
    Ladai wrote: »
    Castro is the only candidate who has dropped off who I really wish was still in it.

    Agreed.

    Even when Harris was here, Klobuchar was the pre eminent (non billionaire, non circus) "Why-are-you-here-still?" candidate.

    No message, no constituency, no special talents.

    Klobuchar's constituency, message and electability argument are pretty obvious. She's the midwestern moderate. Her appeal is pretty obvious and straightforward.

    Her main problem is that Biden is squatting in her path.

    shryke on
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  • PolaritiePolaritie Sleepy Registered User regular
    RedTide wrote: »
    Ladai wrote: »
    Castro is the only candidate who has dropped off who I really wish was still in it.

    Agreed.

    Even when Harris was here, Klobuchar was the pre eminent (non billionaire, non circus) "Why-are-you-here-still?" candidate.

    No message, no constituency, no special talents.

    I think Klobuchar would have had a chance in a field without Biden eating the moderate side of the base, but as is...

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  • TheBigEasyTheBigEasy Registered User regular
    Any chance Castro will get into the debate? Or Booker for that matter?

  • LadaiLadai Registered User regular
    edited December 3
    TheBigEasy wrote: »
    Any chance Castro will get into the debate? Or Booker for that matter?

    Doesn't look like it. From Politico today:
    After Gabbard and Yang, no other candidate is close to qualifying for the next debate. Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey, who participated in the fifth debate in November, has crossed the donor threshold but has not hit 4 percent in any DNC-approved poll for the December debate. His campaign released a memo last week saying making the debate stage is its "top priority." Booker is the only candidate who participated in the fifth debate who is not close to making the sixth debate.

    Link: https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/03/tom-steyer-qualifies-for-december-debate-074874

    I mean, both Castro and Booker are still technically running, but not making a debate has generally been a bad sign for the future of one's campaign. People/news orgs pretty much stop paying attention to you after that.

    Unless you're Bloomberg, I guess. Then you get to buy your own coverage.

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  • joshofalltradesjoshofalltrades 地獄のようにかわいい あなたは嫉妬深いかRegistered User regular
    I thought Castro dropped out?

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  • -Tal-Tal Registered User regular
    I'm pleasantly surprised that harris would drop out this early instead of limping along to super tuesday

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  • LadaiLadai Registered User regular
    edited December 3
    I thought Castro dropped out?

    I just did a quick search (because I honestly started to doubt my own memory) but couldn't find any mention of him officially dropping out. His campaign website also still lists a bunch of meet-and-greets across Iowa scheduled for December.

    Ladai on
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  • enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    Castro is still running, but is doomed.

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  • The SauceThe Sauce Fleur de Alys Registered User regular
    edited December 3
    tbloxham wrote: »
    RedTide wrote: »
    First jewish president still on the board

    Not exactly the most marginalized of voices, but yes a first none the less.

    Well, and first woman, and first openly homosexual person. And considering the Harris voters are going to flock to Warren, I think we'll be well on course for the first woman.
    Warren gets, at best, a bump of +2% from this. Biden probably gets around +1%.

    While a net gain of 1% on Biden isn't nothing, it's also basically statistical noise (unless Harris supporters happen to be clustered in very key states and in how they'll break for Warren, and even then...).

    The only real effect this has on the primary is ensuring Harris won't be on any of the future debate stages. On a Harris-specific level, it's also probably a good move for her career, as I think her candidacy was harming her brand.

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  • enc0reenc0re Registered User regular
    Here are the current Paddy Power odds (I hope I'm doing my conversion from fractional odds to implied probability right):

    Biden - 3/1 - 25%
    Buttigieg - 7/2 - 22.2%
    Warren - 4/1 - 20%
    Sanders - 11/2 - 15.4%
    Bloomberg - 8/1 - 11.1%

    steep drop-off after that with Clinton(!) being the next most likely.

    wandering
  • TryCatcherTryCatcher Registered User regular
    edited December 3
    The Sauce wrote: »
    tbloxham wrote: »
    RedTide wrote: »
    First jewish president still on the board

    Not exactly the most marginalized of voices, but yes a first none the less.

    Well, and first woman, and first openly homosexual person. And considering the Harris voters are going to flock to Warren, I think we'll be well on course for the first woman.
    Warren gets, at best, a bump of +2% from this. Biden probably gets around +1%.

    While a net gain of 1% on Biden isn't nothing, it's also basically statistical noise (unless Harris supporters happen to be clustered in very key states and in how they'll break for Warren, and even then...).

    The only real effect this has on the primary is ensuring Harris won't be on any of the future debate stages. On a Harris-specific level, it's also probably a good move for her career, as I think her candidacy was harming her brand.

    Makes sense, she was just looking like an empty suit. Speaking off, right now Twitter is taking a massive dump on Nate Bronze for hyping up Harris:


    Honestly, the Harris push is like the Major Pete push: A mostly artificial media narrative.

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  • enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    Before she started campaigning, she seemed like a very good idea. Fairly strong liberal, a woman, person of color, does great in confronting assholes in committee hearings so you could imagine her rhetorically beating Trump like a drum. But she ran a bad campaign and that still matters.

    Herbert Hoover got 40% of the vote in 1932. Friendly reminder.
    Warren 2020
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  • MegaMan001MegaMan001 CRNA Rochester, MNRegistered User regular
    I'm glad she had the foresight to get out earlier rather than later and I hope they are able to cycle her into some of the questioning with all of these investigations.

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  • RedTideRedTide Registered User regular
    With those six candidates on stage, it's Knives out for Pete and Biden.

    Like Warren and Bernie will be hit at because they are the least aligned compared to the others, but their supporters are likely ride or die with one or the other at this point and pushing one of them out of the race hurts the centrists the most.

    Klobuchar and Steyer need Pete's voters because they're transient (they all supported someone else like five minutes ago) and because demographically they're all worried whites and are way more likely to jump ship then Bidens coalition.

    Biden can put the stink of inevitability by bodying Pete since that's his pathway to majority of support.

    And Warren and Bernie need to peel votes from the center (either by casting doubt on Bidens chances in the general or enhancing their own viability) and what better way then reminding voters about Pete's long list of accomplishments and who he thought of as his voters.

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  • FencingsaxFencingsax It is difficult to get a man to understand, when his salary depends upon his not understanding GNU Terry PratchettRegistered User regular
    edited December 3
    -Tal wrote: »
    I'm pleasantly surprised that harris would drop out this early instead of limping along to super tuesday

    She doesn't want to completely lose the California primary

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  • Stabbity StyleStabbity Style Warning: Mothership Reporting Richland, WARegistered User regular
    Harris is young enough that she can try again in 4-8 years. Hopefully she'll manage to come up with a thesis for her next try.

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  • TryCatcherTryCatcher Registered User regular
    Fencingsax wrote: »
    -Tal wrote: »
    I'm pleasantly surprised that harris would drop out this early instead of limping along to super tuesday

    She doesn't want to completely lose the California primary

    Yep. An advantage that the vanity runs have over elected officials is that the vanity runs can keep going because even taking the money factor aside, they don't have to worry about going all in and losing an elected position.

  • RedTideRedTide Registered User regular
    Before she started campaigning, she seemed like a very good idea. Fairly strong liberal, a woman, person of color, does great in confronting assholes in committee hearings so you could imagine her rhetorically beating Trump like a drum. But she ran a bad campaign and that still matters.

    As wrong as he was about how the Harris campaign plays out, he has Pete on a higher tier then most of us would have out him at that point

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  • LadaiLadai Registered User regular
    edited December 3
    Yeah I'm not a fan of whenever Silver plays pundit, but looking at that tweet just makes me kinda impressed that he predicted Klobuchar still being relevant eight months later.

    Ladai on
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  • Styrofoam SammichStyrofoam Sammich WANT. 5386-8443-8937Registered User regular
    Ladai wrote: »
    Yeah I'm not a fan of whenever Silver plays pundit, but looking at that tweet just makes me kinda impressed that he predicted Klobuchar still being relevant eight months later.

    Hard pressed to say she's ever been relevant this cycle

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  • PreacherPreacher Registered User regular
    Ladai wrote: »
    Yeah I'm not a fan of whenever Silver plays pundit, but looking at that tweet just makes me kinda impressed that he predicted Klobuchar still being relevant eight months later.

    Hard pressed to say she's ever been relevant this cycle

    She only ever seems to come up with a list of "who is still inexplicably running?" Like Delaney.

    I would like some money because these are artisanal nuggets of wisdom philistine.

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  • kaidkaid Registered User regular
    shryke wrote: »
    RedTide wrote: »
    Ladai wrote: »
    Castro is the only candidate who has dropped off who I really wish was still in it.

    Agreed.

    Even when Harris was here, Klobuchar was the pre eminent (non billionaire, non circus) "Why-are-you-here-still?" candidate.

    No message, no constituency, no special talents.

    Klobuchar's constituency, message and electability argument are pretty obvious. She's the midwestern moderate. Her appeal is pretty obvious and straightforward.

    Her main problem is that Biden is squatting in her path.

    If she can last long enough to give biden a chance to implode in some of the early races could suddenly make her a lot more viable candidate. If I had to choose between her and mayor pete I would choose her. She plays pretty well in wisconsin at least from what I hear people talking about around here.

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  • RedTideRedTide Registered User regular
    Vaguely curious if Booker sees any gain from this or if he's gone regardless if he doesn't make the next debate.

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  • lonelyahavalonelyahava Call me Ahava Move to New ZealandRegistered User regular
    I'd say that 8 years ago Klobuchar was on my list of those who would run and do well 'the next time'. Right up with Gillibrand.

    Klobuchar is midwest, a woman, middle of the party to the slightly leftish side, and when you get her going she's obviously very passionate about what she believes in and will fight for. She used to be a favorite guest to watch on Rachel Maddow because she was obviously smart and had a lot of drive behind her choice topics and goals. It's honestly not that baffling to me that she's still around, she has some good points on her CV. If Biden were not in the race I honestly think that Klobuchar would be doing much better.

    I obviously don't think she's the right candidate for what we as a party/country need at this moment in time, but I can, in a vacuum, see the appeal of her.

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  • -Tal-Tal Registered User regular
    The only thing I remember about klobuchar is she yells at her staff and thinks this means she'll be tough on trump

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