[Coronavirus] Thread - SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

MayabirdMayabird Pecking at the keyboardRegistered User regular
edited February 23 in Debate and/or Discourse
640px-Coronaviruses_004_lores.jpg
Just a generic coronavirus picture, first thing I could find.

It's in the news and spreading quickly, with confirmed cases in at least thirteen countries and counting, but the majority are in China, specifically centered around the city of Wuhan, the capital of Hubei province in central China. Officially designed 2019-nCoV, it is a novel strain of coronavirus, possibly zoonotic and originating from bats. The other six known human-infecting coronaviruses range from some that cause common cold to MERS and SARS. Human-to-human transmission has been confirmed for at least four generations. As of the writing of this post (25 January) there have been over 1400 confirmed cases, likely a few thousand more, and 42 confirmed deaths. 35 million people are under quarantine in China with multiple cities locked down, though how effective that will be remains in question.

This thread is for:
1) Discussing the virus itself (origins, how transmissible it is, etc.)
2) Talking about impacts due to the outbreak, including political ones
3) Discussions about medicine, epidemics, and similar topics

This thread is absolutely not for:
1) Panic and declarations of the end of civilization. While I'm not sure humanity will make it through the coming climate crisis and that will entail, this little bug alone won't be enough to wipe us out.
2) Linking Twitter randos saying stupid crap, including that dumbass in the White House (unless he's saying something horribly actionable like locking up all Chinese-looking people or something).

We can keep the discussion here so the East Asia thread doesn't get completely clogged up. I'm sure there are lots of people wanting to talk about this.

EDIT: Added useful links from @boogedyboo


General Info

US CDC on nCov 2019
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nCoV/summary.html

WHO on nCOV 2019
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019

European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/novel-coronavirus-china

Good video summary from the Guardian


Situation Reports

WHO Daily Sit-reps
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/

US CDC Case count
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-in-us.html

Visualization

Updated mapping visualization by John Hopkins University
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Real Time Tracking of cases in China (in Chinese)
http://3g.dxy.cn/newh5/view/pneumonia


Academic

Completed sequence of viral genome
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/nuccore/MN908947

TWiV 584: Year of the coronavirus - Discussion panel of virologists about the outbreak.
http://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-584/

Twitter thread keeping track of academic papers both published and preprint (biorxiv.org) on the virus.
Maintained by Dr Cevik of University of St Andrews


Edit: Feb 11 - added the official names just listed by the WHO

Edit: Feb 23 - BNO News in the Netherlands has been the best news aggregator keeping up with the outbreak/pandemic and monitoring cases.
For live updates: https://twitter.com/BNODesk
Their map and timelime page: https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/


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Posts

  • MayabirdMayabird Pecking at the keyboardRegistered User regular
    Also, in case I didn't say it enough during the west African Ebola outbreak, don't freaking eat bats. I don't care if it turns out the coronavirus came from, like, snakes or something. Don't eat bats. They are far more valuable alive than dead. Alive, they are valuable additions to the ecosystem, controlling insects, pollinating flowers, or spreading fruit seeds depending on the species. Eaten, they are full of all sorts of diseases that are incredibly nasty to us. Because they fly and flying is very energetically expensive, they have higher core body temperatures than us, meaning diseases that can survive a bat will survive our puny attempts at fevers to try to fight them off.

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  • NobeardNobeard North Carolina: Failed StateRegistered User regular
    I ask in all sincerity: who needs a warning to not eat bats?

    I'm not saying we are going to have an autocratic dystopia, but things keep happening that look like they come from an autocratic dystopia.
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  • Senna1Senna1 Registered User regular
    I'd just like to add; we don't know what the impact of this novel virus is going to be. But if you're concerned about respiratory illnesses, please make sure you've had your flu shot. It's the respiratory virus that's already here, infecting thousands, and this is basically peak flu season now. It's not too late to get vaccinated if you haven't. /PSA

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  • WiseManTobesWiseManTobes Registered User regular
    edited January 26
    Nobeard wrote: »
    I ask in all sincerity: who needs a warning to not eat bats?

    Have you seen some of the warning labels people have ending up needing? Hot coffee might be hot, "Do not drink' on bleach, etc rofl
    edit: Do not eat for Tide Pods

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  • Ninja Snarl PNinja Snarl P My helmet is my burden. Ninja Snarl: Gone, but not forgotten.Registered User regular
    In all seriousness, bats are a common staple food item in the form of illegal or unregulated bushmeat. Same goes for snakes (which might've been the original original disease source) and basically any critter people can catch and put in a pot. I know the kneejerk reaction is "who the fuck would eat a bat?", but there are a lot of people for whom eating a bat is vital protein source. They don't eat them because they want to, they eat them because that's all the meat they've got access to.

    So on the one hand, it would be really really good if this situation finally forced China to enforce some proper food sanitation laws and actively banned consuming unsafe animal parts based on superstition; not only would this keep people from getting sick from eating wild animals, it should hopefully make a really impact on people doing stupid shit like paying for rhinos to get slaughtered so they can eat fucking powdered rhino horn.

    On the other hand, that regulation is going to mean a lot of people in China going without a meat source and will probably result in a fair number of people starving to death.

    So this whole situation sucks, top to bottom. Yeah, people need to not eat wild animals, but try not to judge those people too harshly for trying to stay alive.

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  • QuidQuid I don't... what... hnnng Registered User regular
    Nobeard wrote: »
    I ask in all sincerity: who needs a warning to not eat bats?

    China, especially central and southern China, have a long cultural history of eating, well, anything that "walks, swims, or flies with its back to the sky".

    This isn't in and of itself bad. Lots of cultures eat lots of things other cultures find gross. It becomes an issue when tradition takes a back seat to things like safe handling of food.

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  • VishNubVishNub Registered User regular
    edited January 26
    Again, if consuming bats is specifically and demonstrably unsafe (and it sounds like there is science to back that up) then yes that should be regulated. But, banning the consumption of all “wild” animals is a massive overreaction that a) won’t work and b) won’t help much.

    The use of parts from endangered species like rhino horn, or bear spleen, or totoaba swim bladders for nonsense reasons should also be regulated and discouraged, but that’s irrelevant to the present discussion of zoonotic disease outbreak.

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  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    edited January 26
    Senna1 wrote: »
    I'd just like to add; we don't know what the impact of this novel virus is going to be. But if you're concerned about respiratory illnesses, please make sure you've had your flu shot. It's the respiratory virus that's already here, infecting thousands, and this is basically peak flu season now. It's not too late to get vaccinated if you haven't. /PSA

    Also, the best way to increase your chances of surviving a respiratory illness is to do you darndest to make sure you dont have another serious one at the same time.

    Edit - also, with Flu you should say infecting tend of millions and killing tens of thousands.

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  • HefflingHeffling No Pic EverRegistered User regular
    I don't think eating bat is any stranger than eating oysters. But I recognize my cultural bias when it comes to foods.

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  • kimekime Queen of Blades Registered User regular
    This has officially cut my vacation in half :(

    I'm flying back to the USA today instead of next weekend, booked the flight last night. It's not really for my own safety. I'm young/healthy enough that the chances of me having any severe effects from this virus aren't too great. It hasn't even reached as far north as I was yet.

    It's mostly a concern that I won't be able to fly back next week. There have been talks in both the US and Australia that I've heard of so fast about just banning all flights from China into the country. So, while the odds of anything happening still aren't too high, it's more of trying to figure out the best choice in a weighed average sort of way. And, well, by the time it's obvious to leave, it's too late haha.

    There's a very solid possibility we'll see some exponential increase in the numbers of infected this next week (it seems to be more contagious that SARS, for example), so I'm just worried what the kneejerk reaction would be at those numbers.

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  • VishNubVishNub Registered User regular
    Fly to madagascar

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  • kimekime Queen of Blades Registered User regular
    VishNub wrote: »
    Fly to madagascar

    No, I've played this game. The virus is too visible too early, we'll be fine. :P

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  • FeralFeral MEMETICHARIZARD along with you if I get drunk well I know I'm gonna be gonna be the man whoRegistered User regular
    Nobeard wrote: »
    I ask in all sincerity: who needs a warning to not eat bats?

    Ozzy Osbourne.

    every person who doesn't like an acquired taste always seems to think everyone who likes it is faking it. it should be an official fallacy.
    the "no true scotch man" fallacy.
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  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    kime wrote: »
    This has officially cut my vacation in half :(

    I'm flying back to the USA today instead of next weekend, booked the flight last night. It's not really for my own safety. I'm young/healthy enough that the chances of me having any severe effects from this virus aren't too great. It hasn't even reached as far north as I was yet.

    It's mostly a concern that I won't be able to fly back next week. There have been talks in both the US and Australia that I've heard of so fast about just banning all flights from China into the country. So, while the odds of anything happening still aren't too high, it's more of trying to figure out the best choice in a weighed average sort of way. And, well, by the time it's obvious to leave, it's too late haha.

    There's a very solid possibility we'll see some exponential increase in the numbers of infected this next week (it seems to be more contagious that SARS, for example), so I'm just worried what the kneejerk reaction would be at those numbers.

    Most of the realistic "estimates for actual people who have been infected" I've seen, rather than the confirmed cases have been around 10-15000. This is actually a good thing at this stage, because it means that ~90% of people who get the virus dont get sick enough to see a doctor.

    It's kinda scary stuff though. I do hope we some signs of control over the next week, otherwise we'll be almost certain to see international transmission etc.

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  • nexuscrawlernexuscrawler Registered User regular
    Have they nailed down an incubation period yet?

  • FrostwoodFrostwood Registered User regular
    As someone who is trained in Infection control, and will be part of a local Pandemic control unit should it reach those levels. I'm watching this with great interest.
    This is a beautifully designed virus, it's perfect for at least spreading across the globe.

    At this point we don't know how it spreads, so we don't know what PPE will be effective in dealing with it. The possibility of a vaccine is months away, and by then this will be over. I remember by the time SARS hit Ontario, we already had a vaccine ready to go, now there has been no time.

    Dealing with one to two small outbreaks a year, it requires a lot of resources to treat sick people. I dread them. We'll probably have to unlock our "Pandemic room", which is full of supplies for cases like this.

    Treating Pneumonia(which is the main cause of death in this it seems) is pretty expensive-it cost me 250$ in medicine here in Canada, which I wasn't prepared for, so I'd make sure you have some money tucked away for the medicine.

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  • ShadowhopeShadowhope Baa. Registered User regular


    Interesting map thing: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

    Frostwood wrote: »
    This is a beautifully designed virus, it's perfect for at least spreading across the globe.

    Well, the long incubation period with no symptoms, and symptoms that seem similar to the cold or flu, definitely seem perfect for getting the hosts to mingle with other potential hosts for extended periods of time. I think that a lot will depend on how infectious it is, and what the vector is.

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  • matt has a problemmatt has a problem Points to 'off' Points to 'on'Registered User regular
    Have they nailed down an incubation period yet?

    Going by the case in Seattle and the one in Chicago since they know the travel time and time before symptoms got reported it looks like 7-12 days. The R0 seems to be similar to the 2003 SARS outbreak, this one just happened to occur in a major international travel hub so it's been spread wider.

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  • SkeithSkeith Registered User regular
    kime wrote: »
    VishNub wrote: »
    Fly to madagascar

    No, I've played this game. The virus is too visible too early, we'll be fine. :P

    Long as nobody selects organ failure in the late game, yeah.

    mts wrote: »
    heres how i see it being a total win situation for you
    1. stay with your wife while she dog sits. this wins husband points since she knows its out of your comfort zone
    2. have sex all over her friends house so that the next time you see her friend look at you condescendingly, you can wink back knowing you did the freaky deaky where she eats her cheerios.
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  • kimekime Queen of Blades Registered User regular
    Have they nailed down an incubation period yet?

    Going by the case in Seattle and the one in Chicago since they know the travel time and time before symptoms got reported it looks like 7-12 days. The R0 seems to be similar to the 2003 SARS outbreak, this one just happened to occur in a major international travel hub so it's been spread wider.

    That's good info, thanks. I needed to know how long to isolate myself for :P

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  • Styrofoam SammichStyrofoam Sammich WANT. 5386-8443-8937Registered User regular
    Is there any reason to think this'll play out differently than SARS or avian flu or another disease I've forgotten about?

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  • Giggles_FunsworthGiggles_Funsworth Paranoiac Bay Area SprawlRegistered User regular
    Is this the sort of thing that's likely to trigger a cytokine storm? I remember that being a thing with SARS and MERS. If so it'll have abnormally high kill rates with young folks too. You need a Goldilocks immune system. Too weak it's like any other flu, too strong and your immune system kills you trying to kill the flu.

    As somebody with a generally stellar immune system and a couple few autoimmune issues I'll be biting my nails with this one again until I hear otherwise. Great time to be attending three conferences in the next few months I'll tell you hwhat.

    Zilla360
  • SmrtnikSmrtnik job boli zub Registered User regular
    Yeah I'm going to Pax East after a few years if missing it and not excited for this to be the Pax pox this year.

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  • JragghenJragghen Registered User regular
    edited January 26
    Is there any reason to think this'll play out differently than SARS or avian flu or another disease I've forgotten about?

    Edited first part because the next post seems to have more accurate data.

    There's concerns about how accurate that is because China is completely quarantining Wuhan, in the middle of Lunar New Year, which is making even the not typically paranoid perk up and take note.

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  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    Is there any reason to think this'll play out differently than SARS or avian flu or another disease I've forgotten about?

    It seems to be a bit more infectious, and a bit less dangerous than either of those (SARS and MERS)

    SARS killed ~10% of those it hospitalized, and hospitalized around 8000. It is seemingly gone.
    MERS killed ~30% of those it hospitalized, and has hospitalized around 3000. It is still existing, but seems to typically be very uninfectious.

    SARS and MERS seem to send most of those they infect to the hospital

    This one seems to kill ~4% of those it hospitalizes. However, it seems (judging by infection rates) that it is likely that there are MANY more infections which never present with hospitalization. It seems a lot more like a really nasty flu virus in terms of severity than SARS/MERS.

    There is no evidence as of yet that this is posing a greater risk to young healthy people, or the middle aged. It seems to simply be a virus which is capable of infecting deeper in the lungs than most, and thus presenting the possibility of more serious temporary lung injury which can set you up to die from pneumonia. Most of the reports I read are saying that most of the people who have died (for a very strong value of most, but, it is low numbers at this point) are over 60, and most of them have been men with pre-existing conditions. Remember also that the disease is highly active in china at this point. where 53% of men are smokers. Smoking places you at greater risk of death from anything which causes pneumonia.

    The virus seems to be at an infections per infection rate of around 2, which means it is growing. But, it's life in a patient seems to be around 2 weeks. So, if that '2' is over the whole 2 weeks, there may be some time where the virus spreads slowly across local areas of china, giving more and more time for people to prepare in advance of it.

    The thing I haven't seen much information on is how well the people are doing who did go to hospital for the most part. Pneumonia can take many days of care to clear properly, so, everything may be progressing normally and none of the overseas patients seem to have indicated any different than that.

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  • Jam WarriorJam Warrior Registered User regular
    edited January 26
    I agree with the above comparison of it to Flu. So bad news for the vulnerable until we get a vaccine, but (hopefully) not having influenza’s massively high mutation rate and vast variety of animal reservoirs, when we do get a vaccine it should be pretty much containable, the clear up time depending on how far it gets before then.

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  • EncEnc A Fool with Compassion The Land of Flowers (and Dragons)Registered User regular
    edited January 26
    Jragghen wrote: »
    Is there any reason to think this'll play out differently than SARS or avian flu or another disease I've forgotten about?

    Edited first part because the next post seems to have more accurate data.

    There's concerns about how accurate that is because China is completely quarantining Wuhan, in the middle of Lunar New Year, which is making even the not typically paranoid perk up and take note.

    Once again, there is not a complete quarentine anywhere in China right now.

    Mass transit facilities have been closed to all but essential operations. You can still leave Wuhan by car, bike, walking, boat, or any number of other means. Just not planes, ferries, or trains without increased scrutiny. Flights are still arriving and leaving, they just have to be cleared and generally are only those small planes with charters that have been verified or those delivering goods and essential needs. The idea here isn't "NOBODY LEAVE WUHAN" but to keep people from congregating en masse at transportation facilities to lower the likelyhood of spreading the disease in a crowded place and THEN sending those people to more cities.

    Press can get into and out of the city quite easily, assuming they are within Chinese borders and have credentials anyhow.
    Is there any reason to think this'll play out differently than SARS or avian flu or another disease I've forgotten about?

    This disease is less deadly than SARS already, and both the Chinese government and WHO acted much faster with this outbreak. Most places not hyping up the situation as a game of Pandemic for ratings expect it to be about the same timetable with a lower death count. The risk factors here are being primarily very young, very old, or having an already compromised immune system. Most healthy people manifest little more than a common cold. Compare to H1N1 where most people were in real, signifigant health risks once infected regardless of status, and this whole thing is much less worrisome.

    Which is not to say it isn't worrisome! 50 people have died already. But China has taken a lot of very measured and sensible precautions to slow the spread of the disease, including suspending the start of the school year for all levels of education, to keep people home until the disease burns out. They are also using state resources to build a ton of temporary hospitals to house and quarantine those identified positively with the disease until the danger passes.

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  • ZiggymonZiggymon Registered User regular
    Wasn't the BBC new crew told they could enter but not leave, then were escorted out of the border area pretty quickly by police?

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  • matt has a problemmatt has a problem Points to 'off' Points to 'on'Registered User regular
    China's reporting now they have evidence people can spread it when still asymptomatic so, that's less than ideal.

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  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    China's reporting now they have evidence people can spread it when still asymptomatic so, that's less than ideal.

    However if that's the case, it would argue that either it's not very infectious on a per exposure basis or create more argument that there is a very large fraction of cases which just never present serious symptoms. It's certainly bad for containment, but, if true it changes the character of the outbreak a little, making it even more like flu.

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  • Doctor DetroitDoctor Detroit Registered User regular
    tbloxham wrote: »
    China's reporting now they have evidence people can spread it when still asymptomatic so, that's less than ideal.

    However if that's the case, it would argue that either it's not very infectious on a per exposure basis or create more argument that there is a very large fraction of cases which just never present serious symptoms. It's certainly bad for containment, but, if true it changes the character of the outbreak a little, making it even more like flu.

    Saw this elsewhere on the interwebs..."Wuhan Flu ain't nuthin' to fuck with"

    Fry
  • TastyfishTastyfish Registered User regular
    edited January 26
    Also - it's thought that this one might come from snakes, not bats. Which is pretty unusual - but the same issue applies here with the range on body temperatures making it harder to fight with just a fever.
    Seems that genetically it's closer to snake viruses and it's not the season for bats (they're hibernating), but it would be a first.

    Tastyfish on
  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    Tastyfish wrote: »
    Also - it's thought that this one might come from snakes, not bats. Which is pretty unusual - but the same issue applies here with the range on body temperatures making it harder to fight with just a fever.
    Seems that genetically it's closer to snake viruses and it's not the season for bats (they're hibernating), but it would be a first.

    There's not really any evidence of this virus itself being hard to clear. What seems to be the case is that it infects deeper in the lungs than the usual cold virus, which causes more lung damage and massively increases the chances of you getting pneumonia. It's more lethal than the flu, but we aren't seeing any causes of death other than "got pneumonia and died after lung damage from the virus"

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  • ZavianZavian Senātus Populusque Rōmānus Registered User regular
    Looks like there's increasing pressure for China to permanently ban and enforce the ban of exotic bush meat markets and the sale of wild animals such as bats. I'm glad some good might come out of this!

  • Local H JayLocal H Jay Registered User regular
    Zavian wrote: »
    Looks like there's increasing pressure for China to permanently ban and enforce the ban of exotic bush meat markets and the sale of wild animals such as bats. I'm glad some good might come out of this!

    China does not have a great history of bowing to outside national pressure

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  • ZavianZavian Senātus Populusque Rōmānus Registered User regular
    edited January 26
    Zavian wrote: »
    Looks like there's increasing pressure for China to permanently ban and enforce the ban of exotic bush meat markets and the sale of wild animals such as bats. I'm glad some good might come out of this!

    China does not have a great history of bowing to outside national pressure

    The reports I've seen have been that this is internal pressure

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/virus-sparks-soul-searching-over-chinas-wild-animal-trade-11580055290

    Zavian on
  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    This would certainly be a good thing. It's not like the animals we do eat are fundamentally healthier or anything, but, the fewer animal species humans interact with the better in terms of cross species jumping.

    Did see some information on the john Hopkins map about people starting to recover and be discharged (about 60 so far), so it seems that the pneumonia they are getting isn't some special pneumonia and people are recovering, but, it is still taking the week or so you might expect. We'll really start to get more confidence in what this virus means once we learn more about the fraction it sickens and peoples path back to health.

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  • MayabirdMayabird Pecking at the keyboardRegistered User regular
    As a note, infectious diseases have a tendency to become less lethal over time because a dead host cannot continue to produce more viruses to spread. There is an evolutionary pressure towards less deadly diseases. Too lethal, like Ebola, and it burns out. Thus, even if this coronavirus does spread worldwide, it will likely become a bit milder over time.

    This isn't a game of Pandemic where there's a malevolent godlike being behind the virus actively trying to kill everyone off.

  • HevachHevach Registered User regular
    edited January 26
    It's not so much something special about the animals we eat, but about animals we raise. We protect our herds and cull them when disease gets through, even traditionally wild taken meats are safer in captive herds.

    Managed wild populations are less safe, but still better than bush meat, which is usually literal mystery meat - whatever animal the dealer managed to catch that day. Minimum food safety, maximum environmental impact.

    Hevach on
    shrykeLegacyMayabirdShadowhopeBloodySlothGnome-InterruptusMoridin889
  • MayabirdMayabird Pecking at the keyboardRegistered User regular
    A lot of countries are evacuating their nationals (diplomats and whatnot) from Wuhan. France for instance has openly stated that all evacuees will be put under a 14 day quarantine just to be safe, since 14 days seems to be the maximum incubation time for this coronavirus and there are reports of asymptomatic people spreading the virus.

    Notably lacking in all coverage from the US side is any talk of quarantine. Apparently lots of people will just be flown in and released to wherever. *looks at the wreckage of the State Department and the screaming imbecile in charge of it* If the US epidemic starts from this, it would serve us right.

    Giggles_FunsworthJaysonFourEinzelZilla360
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