They don't need much of an island to be able to temporarily set up some reasonably comfortable living areas for groups of 100-200 people, instead of keeping them all piled together in a situation that's nearly ideal for making sure the disease gets unlimited chances to mutate and re-infect people.
Heck, I would bet money that there are companies in the region that specialize in setting up temporary facilities for workers on islands. This isn't stuff that's actually that hard to do
I have no idea what you think islands are, but the ones around Japan (and not necessarily anywhere near the cruise ship) that don't have people living on them are small, not easily accessed, and generally have very good terrain reasons for why people don't live there. So the idea that being closely confined to places with no existing food, water, sanitation, medical care or infrastructure of any sort that have no way of being easily accessed is something better than staying on the ship that has ALL of those and more is... Well you got my first ever use of: smh
It's a shame you didn't put money on that bet. With how badly you lost, I wouldn't have to pay for lunch all week.
For me, it's not even the prospect of re-infection and/or mutation (so much, but see below). It's the likelihood that when this started, there might have been some people on the boat who weren't infected; but by the time this runs its course, everyone will have been (at least once). Considering that we're talking about a potentially lethal disease... I understand the calculus involved, but it doesn't make it any less grim for the people who were healthy but got locked in with the sick to protect the general population from the latter.
Ideally you would start by pulling small groups of people out for separate guarantine and then either get them into treatment or let them walk if found clean of virus.
Ofcourse there is the question of who gets to go first.
Also where you guarantine them if they don't have ready facilities.
How is the air circulation in the ship handled? I would be surprised if the cabins were not atleast somewhat connected.
For me, it's not even the prospect of re-infection and/or mutation (so much, but see below). It's the likelihood that when this started, there might have been some people on the boat who weren't infected; but by the time this runs its course, everyone will have been (at least once). Considering that we're talking about a potentially lethal disease... I understand the calculus involved, but it doesn't make it any less grim for the people who were healthy but got locked in with the sick to protect the general population from the latter.
Sadly, the calculus is probably "better them than us" from the Japanese government. Just like it'd be for most, I imagine.
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CFN: Bizazedo (I don't think I suck, add me).
Ideally you would start by pulling small groups of people out for separate guarantine and then either get them into treatment or let them walk if found clean of virus.
Ofcourse there is the question of who gets to go first.
Also where you guarantine them if they don't have ready facilities.
How is the air circulation in the ship handled? I would be surprised if the cabins were not atleast somewhat connected.
Generally those kinds of systems do have filtration so you would hope it isn't a vector for virus transmission. Also the source for inlet air should be outside air so... hopefully not recycled from inside.
Hard to say without actually knowing its design though.
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Gabriel_Pitt(effective against Russian warships)Registered Userregular
edited February 2020
What 'calculus' are you even going on about? Japan, you know that famously crowded and densely populated country, does not have facilities for suddenly bringing 3.600 potential carriers into the country, in the metro area that has roughly 30 million people in it.
Keeping them where people have housing, sanitation, food, and medical access is a lot better than any alternative that can be thrown together ad hoc.
Ideally you would start by pulling small groups of people out for separate guarantine and then either get them into treatment or let them walk if found clean of virus.
Ofcourse there is the question of who gets to go first.
Also where you guarantine them if they don't have ready facilities.
How is the air circulation in the ship handled? I would be surprised if the cabins were not atleast somewhat connected.
And if the people found "clean" have just been incubating the virus before they start showing symptoms?
What 'calculus' are you even going on about? Japan, you know that famously crowded and densely populated country, does not have facilities for suddenly bringing 3.600 potential carriers into the country, in the metro area that has roughly 30 million people in it.
Keeping them where people have housing, sanitation, food, and medical access is a lot better than any alternative that can be thrown together ad hoc.
.... that's the calculus? You're literally doing it in your post. It means making the hard decisions on which people to benefit when someone will lose out. Do you keep them on the ship where you are likely to ensure everyone on the ship gets infected, but it greatly reduces the chances of an outbreak in the country? Or do you bring them into Japan and be more likely that some of them will dodge the infection, but a higher likelihood of an outbreak?
Japan can handle 3600 people entering the country, you may just have to spread them around or such. Which, again, is part of the decision.
Ideally you would start by pulling small groups of people out for separate guarantine and then either get them into treatment or let them walk if found clean of virus.
Ofcourse there is the question of who gets to go first.
Also where you guarantine them if they don't have ready facilities.
How is the air circulation in the ship handled? I would be surprised if the cabins were not atleast somewhat connected.
Generally those kinds of systems do have filtration so you would hope it isn't a vector for virus transmission. Also the source for inlet air should be outside air so... hopefully not recycled from inside.
Hard to say without actually knowing its design though.
Note that they ran tests on people who interacted with the original infected passenger, or who had symptoms. Everyone who has been detected as being infected has been removed from the cruise ship and sent to a hospital, even if they didn't have symptoms. Disease spread on a cruise ship is almost always a function of the large shared dining/entertainment rooms, where a lot of people can be exposed to an infected person, not through air-recirculation, so the threat for someone in quarantine isn't that high. (Think of cons, where people go off to their own hotel rooms at the end of the day.) The people in quarantine are nervious because they're human, but coronavirus isn't magic.
Ideally you would start by pulling small groups of people out for separate guarantine and then either get them into treatment or let them walk if found clean of virus.
Ofcourse there is the question of who gets to go first.
Also where you guarantine them if they don't have ready facilities.
How is the air circulation in the ship handled? I would be surprised if the cabins were not atleast somewhat connected.
Generally those kinds of systems do have filtration so you would hope it isn't a vector for virus transmission. Also the source for inlet air should be outside air so... hopefully not recycled from inside.
Hard to say without actually knowing its design though.
Note that they ran tests on people who interacted with the original infected passenger, or who had symptoms. Everyone who has been detected as being infected has been removed from the cruise ship and sent to a hospital, even if they didn't have symptoms. Disease spread on a cruise ship is almost always a function of the large shared dining/entertainment rooms, where a lot of people can be exposed to an infected person, not through air-recirculation, so the threat for someone in quarantine isn't that high. (Think of cons, where people go off to their own hotel rooms at the end of the day.) The people in quarantine are nervious because they're human, but coronavirus isn't magic.
Ideally you would start by pulling small groups of people out for separate guarantine and then either get them into treatment or let them walk if found clean of virus.
Ofcourse there is the question of who gets to go first.
Also where you guarantine them if they don't have ready facilities.
How is the air circulation in the ship handled? I would be surprised if the cabins were not atleast somewhat connected.
Generally those kinds of systems do have filtration so you would hope it isn't a vector for virus transmission. Also the source for inlet air should be outside air so... hopefully not recycled from inside.
Hard to say without actually knowing its design though.
Note that they ran tests on people who interacted with the original infected passenger, or who had symptoms. Everyone who has been detected as being infected has been removed from the cruise ship and sent to a hospital, even if they didn't have symptoms. Disease spread on a cruise ship is almost always a function of the large shared dining/entertainment rooms, where a lot of people can be exposed to an infected person, not through air-recirculation, so the threat for someone in quarantine isn't that high. (Think of cons, where people go off to their own hotel rooms at the end of the day.) The people in quarantine are nervious because they're human, but coronavirus isn't magic.
It's basically a cold virus, but the upper respiratory system involvement is very low until it really breaks out. So if a sick person coughs or sneezes, you could get it. But they probably "only" cough and sneeze a little bit more often than a healthy person at that stage.
Ideally you would start by pulling small groups of people out for separate guarantine and then either get them into treatment or let them walk if found clean of virus.
Ofcourse there is the question of who gets to go first.
Also where you guarantine them if they don't have ready facilities.
How is the air circulation in the ship handled? I would be surprised if the cabins were not atleast somewhat connected.
Generally those kinds of systems do have filtration so you would hope it isn't a vector for virus transmission. Also the source for inlet air should be outside air so... hopefully not recycled from inside.
Hard to say without actually knowing its design though.
Note that they ran tests on people who interacted with the original infected passenger, or who had symptoms. Everyone who has been detected as being infected has been removed from the cruise ship and sent to a hospital, even if they didn't have symptoms. Disease spread on a cruise ship is almost always a function of the large shared dining/entertainment rooms, where a lot of people can be exposed to an infected person, not through air-recirculation, so the threat for someone in quarantine isn't that high. (Think of cons, where people go off to their own hotel rooms at the end of the day.) The people in quarantine are nervious because they're human, but coronavirus isn't magic.
It's basically a cold virus, but the upper respiratory system involvement is very low until it really breaks out. So if a sick person coughs or sneezes, you could get it. But they probably "only" cough and sneeze a little bit more often than a healthy person at that stage.
So what happened with like, the tour bus driver or whoever that got it?
Ideally you would start by pulling small groups of people out for separate guarantine and then either get them into treatment or let them walk if found clean of virus.
Ofcourse there is the question of who gets to go first.
Also where you guarantine them if they don't have ready facilities.
How is the air circulation in the ship handled? I would be surprised if the cabins were not atleast somewhat connected.
Generally those kinds of systems do have filtration so you would hope it isn't a vector for virus transmission. Also the source for inlet air should be outside air so... hopefully not recycled from inside.
Hard to say without actually knowing its design though.
Note that they ran tests on people who interacted with the original infected passenger, or who had symptoms. Everyone who has been detected as being infected has been removed from the cruise ship and sent to a hospital, even if they didn't have symptoms. Disease spread on a cruise ship is almost always a function of the large shared dining/entertainment rooms, where a lot of people can be exposed to an infected person, not through air-recirculation, so the threat for someone in quarantine isn't that high. (Think of cons, where people go off to their own hotel rooms at the end of the day.) The people in quarantine are nervious because they're human, but coronavirus isn't magic.
I guess I hadn't read any of the reporting, but this makes the most obvious sense. Remove/quarantine any infected, disinfect everything to the best of your ability, and watch everyone else to try and catch any new cases that crop up. This way you can keep the people on the ship as safe as possible, and still keep them out of the general population to avoid spreading as much as possible.
As for the Japanese claims of no air borne infection vs Chinese, I wonder if this is a translation confusion where Japanese reports are saying that it hadn't spread through large scale air movement, and Chinese reports getting sneezed on as a vector.
"I will write your name in the ruin of them. I will paint you across history in the color of their blood."
Ideally you would start by pulling small groups of people out for separate guarantine and then either get them into treatment or let them walk if found clean of virus.
Ofcourse there is the question of who gets to go first.
Also where you guarantine them if they don't have ready facilities.
How is the air circulation in the ship handled? I would be surprised if the cabins were not atleast somewhat connected.
And if the people found "clean" have just been incubating the virus before they start showing symptoms?
You don't find them clean until well after possible incubation time.
The whole point of guarantining potential carriers is that you can keep them away from general public until you can make sure they are not carriers.
Ideally you would start by pulling small groups of people out for separate guarantine and then either get them into treatment or let them walk if found clean of virus.
Ofcourse there is the question of who gets to go first.
Also where you guarantine them if they don't have ready facilities.
How is the air circulation in the ship handled? I would be surprised if the cabins were not atleast somewhat connected.
And if the people found "clean" have just been incubating the virus before they start showing symptoms?
You don't find them clean until well after possible incubation time.
The whole point of guarantining potential carriers is that you can keep them away from general public until you can make sure they are not carriers.
You can run "what if they miss it by XYZ sequence of events" all day, and yes, that is possible. That would be bad.
But you also have to trust that public health officials on the ground, who have vastly more complete information than we do, have also thought of that.
I'm not going to blame Japan for being very cautious with a giant cruise ship full of possible to likely dangerous disease vectors, and I'm going to trust medical professionals and not my intuition on these matters cause I don't know shit.
What 'calculus' are you even going on about? Japan, you know that famously crowded and densely populated country, does not have facilities for suddenly bringing 3.600 potential carriers into the country, in the metro area that has roughly 30 million people in it.
Keeping them where people have housing, sanitation, food, and medical access is a lot better than any alternative that can be thrown together ad hoc.
.... that's the calculus? You're literally doing it in your post. It means making the hard decisions on which people to benefit when someone will lose out. Do you keep them on the ship where you are likely to ensure everyone on the ship gets infected, but it greatly reduces the chances of an outbreak in the country? Or do you bring them into Japan and be more likely that some of them will dodge the infection, but a higher likelihood of an outbreak?
Japan can handle 3600 people entering the country, you may just have to spread them around or such. Which, again, is part of the decision.
In the absence of evidence that the disease can grow outside the body (ie legionella or something like that that can survive on its own in air conditioning systems) there isn’t much downside to keeping apparently healthy people in the ship confined to quarters and removing people for treatment as they get infected.
What’s the alternative? Throwing them in a tent city? Clearing out a hotel to use as quarantine space that would have all the same problems? You can’t just let everyone go and send them home, and given that, the ship really isn’t any worse an environment than anywhere else that would have central air.
What 'calculus' are you even going on about? Japan, you know that famously crowded and densely populated country, does not have facilities for suddenly bringing 3.600 potential carriers into the country, in the metro area that has roughly 30 million people in it.
Keeping them where people have housing, sanitation, food, and medical access is a lot better than any alternative that can be thrown together ad hoc.
Yeah, that's bullshit.
There aren't enough available hospital beds or similar facilities to house and additional .002% of the population of Japan? What is their plan when this spreads to Japan? Admit the first 100 people to get it then the rest are on their own?
Excluding federal facilities, there are almost 30k acute care hospital beds in Illinois population 12.75m, with generally between 50-75% occupancy rates. Meaning there are at least twice the needed number of beds available right now in a state 1/10th the size of Japan.
What 'calculus' are you even going on about? Japan, you know that famously crowded and densely populated country, does not have facilities for suddenly bringing 3.600 potential carriers into the country, in the metro area that has roughly 30 million people in it.
Keeping them where people have housing, sanitation, food, and medical access is a lot better than any alternative that can be thrown together ad hoc.
Yeah, that's bullshit.
There aren't enough available hospital beds or similar facilities to house and additional .002% of the population of Japan? What is their plan when this spreads to Japan? Admit the first 100 people to get it then the rest are on their own?
Excluding federal facilities, there are almost 30k acute care hospital beds in Illinois population 12.75m, with generally between 50-75% occupancy rates. Meaning there are at least twice the needed number of beds available right now in a state 1/10th the size of Japan.
Why the hell would you as a government take people off a quarantined vassal and put them on your densely populated islands to increase likely spread and speed of infection?
stopgap on
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Ninja Snarl PMy helmet is my burden.Ninja Snarl: Gone, but not forgotten.Registered Userregular
They don't need much of an island to be able to temporarily set up some reasonably comfortable living areas for groups of 100-200 people, instead of keeping them all piled together in a situation that's nearly ideal for making sure the disease gets unlimited chances to mutate and re-infect people.
Heck, I would bet money that there are companies in the region that specialize in setting up temporary facilities for workers on islands. This isn't stuff that's actually that hard to do
I have no idea what you think islands are, but the ones around Japan (and not necessarily anywhere near the cruise ship) that don't have people living on them are small, not easily accessed, and generally have very good terrain reasons for why people don't live there. So the idea that being closely confined to places with no existing food, water, sanitation, medical care or infrastructure of any sort that have no way of being easily accessed is something better than staying on the ship that has ALL of those and more is... Well you got my first ever use of: smh
It's a shame you didn't put money on that bet. With how badly you lost, I wouldn't have to pay for lunch all week.
Literally my first search result on Google. It's a company out of Russia that specializes in building temporary dwellings for construction sites in the Pacific Rim region, because that's a regular thing that remote construction sites around the world use all the damn time. You wouldn't have to ship any more food or water to the site than is already getting sent to the cruise ship, because people are already pretty good at setting this shit up professionally. Military forces have been doing this sort of shit for thousands of years and the Romans managed to do it fairly safely before they even understood disease and infections. Modern companies that specialize in this can put down all sorts of structure types without difficulty, from power units to sleeping quarters to kitchens.
So yeah, it is a shame I didn't put any money on that bet, because it turns out it would've been pretty dang easy to collect.
Ninja Snarl P on
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Gabriel_Pitt(effective against Russian warships)Registered Userregular
edited February 2020
*eyeroll*
I gotta keep making bets with you, I'll never have to pay for lunch again.
That solves none of the problems I listed, most especially, 'taking people off a ship that already does everything that that construction does for them, solves none of the problems of having them in close quarters on a ship with climate control, running water, and food, instead cramming them into tents, and putting them someplace with no existing infrastructure, sanitation, or even guarantee of existing at high tide. I'll raise you your 'first google result' for 'do you know what islands actually are? Do you know what around there can be used?"
I'll give you a little respite for your ignorance and not keep kicking you too much when you're down, but even if what you're thinking was remotely feasible, it'd mean instead of having a quarantined boat within easy reach of Tokyo, which makes the logistics of getting medicine and supplies and anything else they need easy, you've moved it hundreds of miles away, at least, and scattered all the people on it on multiple, tiny, undeveloped islands.
That's why people nattering on about 'calculus' might be speaking English, but the words they're typing don't actually make sense.
Maybe I can rope Tinwhiskers into the betting game too, make a little extra on the side over his inability to understand we're not talking about just hospital beds, but securely isolating 3,600 people exposed to the virus for weeks or months, while bringing them into a metroplex of 30ish million people.
Gabriel_Pitt on
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BrodyThe WatchThe First ShoreRegistered Userregular
What 'calculus' are you even going on about? Japan, you know that famously crowded and densely populated country, does not have facilities for suddenly bringing 3.600 potential carriers into the country, in the metro area that has roughly 30 million people in it.
Keeping them where people have housing, sanitation, food, and medical access is a lot better than any alternative that can be thrown together ad hoc.
Yeah, that's bullshit.
There aren't enough available hospital beds or similar facilities to house and additional .002% of the population of Japan? What is their plan when this spreads to Japan? Admit the first 100 people to get it then the rest are on their own?
Excluding federal facilities, there are almost 30k acute care hospital beds in Illinois population 12.75m, with generally between 50-75% occupancy rates. Meaning there are at least twice the needed number of beds available right now in a state 1/10th the size of Japan.
How many of those acute care beds are adequately set up for quarantine procedures. How many hospitals is it across. Are you shuffling nurses/doctors between all of these buildings to keep down the number medical staff you are exposing, or are you letting each hospital expose some portion of their own staff to the Carona Virus?
"I will write your name in the ruin of them. I will paint you across history in the color of their blood."
The crew are not confined to rooms, and have been given inadequate training on how to avoid the infection. If more people get sick, it will be because of stuff like this, not the air circulation system. Per-room quarantine doesn't mean much if some of the people under quarantine are allowed to run around the ship and prepare food for others.
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Gabriel_Pitt(effective against Russian warships)Registered Userregular
What both Tinwhiskers and Ninja Snarl are doing wrong is 'not thinking it through.'
The island idea fails first because there are no suitable islands anywhere nearby, and if somehow there were a string of majestic, Moana-esque tropical isles just outside Tokyo Harbor, only needing bulldozing and some Russian company to throw together prehabs to be ready... you're giving the passengers the EXACT same situation they had on the cruise ship, only worse.
For Tinwhiskers, the problem isn't number of hospital beds, it's keeping that 3,600 people exposed to the virus quarantined until everyone is healthy again and they can reenter contact with the general population. You have to get them into the city, to a medical center big enough, and secure enough to house them all. Maybe the U.S. could do it easily, repurpose a couple of empty Walmarts in rural bumfuck South Carolina with no one around them, and easily controlled access. The luxury of space and distance isn't something they have in Japan, especially not around the most populated urban center in the country.
This one seems very controlled. Arrived last Wednesday to Miramar, which means they were evacuating people from Wuhan to San Diego under quarantine. That means that this particular individual has a very low probability of having spread this anywhere else and certainly contracted the virus in Wuhan. They've been relocated to UCSD medical center.
Still waiting to see if there's an uptick in international cases, but at this point they might just go unnoticed as standard flu.
This one seems very controlled. Arrived last Wednesday to Miramar, which means they were evacuating people from Wuhan to San Diego under quarantine. That means that this particular individual has a very low probability of having spread this anywhere else and certainly contracted the virus in Wuhan. They've been relocated to UCSD medical center.
Still waiting to see if there's an uptick in international cases, but at this point they might just go unnoticed as standard flu.
Indeed, to be 100% clear this seems to be someone who was on an evacuation flight and was in quarantine since they stepped onto US soil. It's effectively showing "this is why the quarantine was a decent idea to help slow the spread and limit exposures"
"That is cool" - Abraham Lincoln
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ceresWhen the last moon is cast over the last star of morningAnd the future has past without even a last desperate warningRegistered User, Moderatormod
edited February 2020
Unless you are a virologist or epidemiologist you guys can cool it with all this. You are probably not better enough at this to warrant the kind of hostility I'm seeing here.
ceres on
And it seems like all is dying, and would leave the world to mourn
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Ninja Snarl PMy helmet is my burden.Ninja Snarl: Gone, but not forgotten.Registered Userregular
This one seems very controlled. Arrived last Wednesday to Miramar, which means they were evacuating people from Wuhan to San Diego under quarantine. That means that this particular individual has a very low probability of having spread this anywhere else and certainly contracted the virus in Wuhan. They've been relocated to UCSD medical center.
Still waiting to see if there's an uptick in international cases, but at this point they might just go unnoticed as standard flu.
Indeed, to be 100% clear this seems to be someone who was on an evacuation flight and was in quarantine since they stepped onto US soil. It's effectively showing "this is why the quarantine was a decent idea to help slow the spread and limit exposures"
Yeah, I think we're at a point with this where news about successful containment needs to be getting more coverage. We need to reinforce to people that it's important to stay rational about this whole thing and cooperate with things like quarantine measures. Yes, there are some areas badly effected by this, but is nothing like some crazy hyperbolic Hollywood disease film.
Epidemics still happen, they aren't the end of the world, and this sort of thing can absolutely be contained with cooperative effort.
Well, in reality the most important and realistic goal here is to slow down any breach of containment as much as possible. There are plenty of beds available for cases like the ones raising from this illness, however, they are overwhelmingly full of old people sick with the flu. If this virus does become pandemic, those beds will be needed for elederly coranivirus patients. In addition, there's no reason to think that this virus will be different from 99% of other Corona viruses and that its spread will be hugely hindered by the end of winter. As such, every day of succesful containment both gets us out of flu season, makes the weather warmer, and gives more opportunities to develop therapies, tests and a possible vaccine.
Exterminitation would be wonderful, but every day the virus can be delayed will save lives.
This one seems very controlled. Arrived last Wednesday to Miramar, which means they were evacuating people from Wuhan to San Diego under quarantine. That means that this particular individual has a very low probability of having spread this anywhere else and certainly contracted the virus in Wuhan. They've been relocated to UCSD medical center.
Still waiting to see if there's an uptick in international cases, but at this point they might just go unnoticed as standard flu.
Indeed, to be 100% clear this seems to be someone who was on an evacuation flight and was in quarantine since they stepped onto US soil. It's effectively showing "this is why the quarantine was a decent idea to help slow the spread and limit exposures"
CBS this morning reported that the new patient in San Diego was "mistakenly" released from the quarantine because they didnt show any symptoms and tested negative. They also said a second person from that flight has just started to show symptoms, and everyone else from the flight that is still in quarantine will be released tomorrow if they still show no symptoms.
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MayabirdPecking at the keyboardRegistered Userregular
If anything it seems less so. Viruses that cross over from animals have a tendency to be really really disgustingly lethal. H5N1, around a third die. Ebola, pretty bad. Rabies, literally everyone infected dies without very prompt treatment.
I like how you're vague about Ebola. The tiny silver lining about the West African outbreak is that we actually had enough cases to figure out what the major cause of death from Ebola is - dehydration. People aren't dying from massive hemorrhaging or whatever; they're constantly vomiting with uncontrollable diarrhea and lose fluids until they die. The death rates were so extremely high because this was happening in areas where medicine is so limited; the only treatment they could attempt was trying to give people oral rehydration fluid, but most people either were too weak to drink it or vomited it back up anyway. (The uncontrollable hiccups that half of all Ebola patients get probably didn't help.) Just having IV fluids available would greatly reduce the death rate, even before experimental antiviral treatments.
This one seems very controlled. Arrived last Wednesday to Miramar, which means they were evacuating people from Wuhan to San Diego under quarantine. That means that this particular individual has a very low probability of having spread this anywhere else and certainly contracted the virus in Wuhan. They've been relocated to UCSD medical center.
Still waiting to see if there's an uptick in international cases, but at this point they might just go unnoticed as standard flu.
Indeed, to be 100% clear this seems to be someone who was on an evacuation flight and was in quarantine since they stepped onto US soil. It's effectively showing "this is why the quarantine was a decent idea to help slow the spread and limit exposures"
CBS this morning reported that the new patient in San Diego was "mistakenly" released from the quarantine because they didnt show any symptoms and tested negative. They also said a second person from that flight has just started to show symptoms, and everyone else from the flight that is still in quarantine will be released tomorrow if they still show no symptoms.
To expand on this a little with UCSD's statements. The patient was mistakenly released from the UCSD medical center back to quarantine at Miramar after the CDC said they tested negative. The hospital said the patient was transported by federal Marshals back to Miramar on Sunday and then returned to the hospital on Monday and that all parties were wearing protective gear during the transit's per CDC recommendations
This one seems very controlled. Arrived last Wednesday to Miramar, which means they were evacuating people from Wuhan to San Diego under quarantine. That means that this particular individual has a very low probability of having spread this anywhere else and certainly contracted the virus in Wuhan. They've been relocated to UCSD medical center.
Still waiting to see if there's an uptick in international cases, but at this point they might just go unnoticed as standard flu.
Indeed, to be 100% clear this seems to be someone who was on an evacuation flight and was in quarantine since they stepped onto US soil. It's effectively showing "this is why the quarantine was a decent idea to help slow the spread and limit exposures"
CBS this morning reported that the new patient in San Diego was "mistakenly" released from the quarantine because they didnt show any symptoms and tested negative. They also said a second person from that flight has just started to show symptoms, and everyone else from the flight that is still in quarantine will be released tomorrow if they still show no symptoms.
To expand on this a little with UCSD's statements. The patient was mistakenly released from the UCSD medical center back to quarantine at Miramar after the CDC said they tested negative. The hospital said the patient was transported by federal Marshals back to Miramar on Sunday and then returned to the hospital on Monday and that all parties were wearing protective gear during the transit's per CDC recommendations
Yeah, I dont remember any of that being mentioned in the report
This one seems very controlled. Arrived last Wednesday to Miramar, which means they were evacuating people from Wuhan to San Diego under quarantine. That means that this particular individual has a very low probability of having spread this anywhere else and certainly contracted the virus in Wuhan. They've been relocated to UCSD medical center.
Still waiting to see if there's an uptick in international cases, but at this point they might just go unnoticed as standard flu.
Indeed, to be 100% clear this seems to be someone who was on an evacuation flight and was in quarantine since they stepped onto US soil. It's effectively showing "this is why the quarantine was a decent idea to help slow the spread and limit exposures"
CBS this morning reported that the new patient in San Diego was "mistakenly" released from the quarantine because they didnt show any symptoms and tested negative. They also said a second person from that flight has just started to show symptoms, and everyone else from the flight that is still in quarantine will be released tomorrow if they still show no symptoms.
To expand on this a little with UCSD's statements. The patient was mistakenly released from the UCSD medical center back to quarantine at Miramar after the CDC said they tested negative. The hospital said the patient was transported by federal Marshals back to Miramar on Sunday and then returned to the hospital on Monday and that all parties were wearing protective gear during the transit's per CDC recommendations
Yeah, I dont remember any of that being mentioned in the report
It's in the San Diego Union Tribune report on it.
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TetraNitroCubaneThe DjinneratorAt the bottom of a bottleRegistered Userregular
This one seems very controlled. Arrived last Wednesday to Miramar, which means they were evacuating people from Wuhan to San Diego under quarantine. That means that this particular individual has a very low probability of having spread this anywhere else and certainly contracted the virus in Wuhan. They've been relocated to UCSD medical center.
Still waiting to see if there's an uptick in international cases, but at this point they might just go unnoticed as standard flu.
Indeed, to be 100% clear this seems to be someone who was on an evacuation flight and was in quarantine since they stepped onto US soil. It's effectively showing "this is why the quarantine was a decent idea to help slow the spread and limit exposures"
CBS this morning reported that the new patient in San Diego was "mistakenly" released from the quarantine because they didnt show any symptoms and tested negative. They also said a second person from that flight has just started to show symptoms, and everyone else from the flight that is still in quarantine will be released tomorrow if they still show no symptoms.
To expand on this a little with UCSD's statements. The patient was mistakenly released from the UCSD medical center back to quarantine at Miramar after the CDC said they tested negative. The hospital said the patient was transported by federal Marshals back to Miramar on Sunday and then returned to the hospital on Monday and that all parties were wearing protective gear during the transit's per CDC recommendations
Yeah, I dont remember any of that being mentioned in the report
It's in the San Diego Union Tribune report on it.
Sure, but it's irresponsible for CBS to run a report at the top of the broadcast implying someone fucked up and risked the health of the general public. The vast majority of people will see a report from the news and never do any follow up on their own
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I have no idea what you think islands are, but the ones around Japan (and not necessarily anywhere near the cruise ship) that don't have people living on them are small, not easily accessed, and generally have very good terrain reasons for why people don't live there. So the idea that being closely confined to places with no existing food, water, sanitation, medical care or infrastructure of any sort that have no way of being easily accessed is something better than staying on the ship that has ALL of those and more is... Well you got my first ever use of: smh
It's a shame you didn't put money on that bet. With how badly you lost, I wouldn't have to pay for lunch all week.
Ofcourse there is the question of who gets to go first.
Also where you guarantine them if they don't have ready facilities.
How is the air circulation in the ship handled? I would be surprised if the cabins were not atleast somewhat connected.
Sadly, the calculus is probably "better them than us" from the Japanese government. Just like it'd be for most, I imagine.
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Generally those kinds of systems do have filtration so you would hope it isn't a vector for virus transmission. Also the source for inlet air should be outside air so... hopefully not recycled from inside.
Hard to say without actually knowing its design though.
Keeping them where people have housing, sanitation, food, and medical access is a lot better than any alternative that can be thrown together ad hoc.
And if the people found "clean" have just been incubating the virus before they start showing symptoms?
.... that's the calculus? You're literally doing it in your post. It means making the hard decisions on which people to benefit when someone will lose out. Do you keep them on the ship where you are likely to ensure everyone on the ship gets infected, but it greatly reduces the chances of an outbreak in the country? Or do you bring them into Japan and be more likely that some of them will dodge the infection, but a higher likelihood of an outbreak?
Japan can handle 3600 people entering the country, you may just have to spread them around or such. Which, again, is part of the decision.
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/honeymooner-among-61-people-on-cruise-ship-confirmed-as-having-coronavirus/2020/02/07/30a980b4-4961-11ea-8a1f-de1597be6cbc_story.html
“As of now, we haven’t seen information that the virus is transmitted by air or . . . by the ventilation system.”
“medical consensus and protocols state that the safest and most reliable way to prevent further spread of viral infections on cruise ships is for passengers to shelter in place.”
Note that they ran tests on people who interacted with the original infected passenger, or who had symptoms. Everyone who has been detected as being infected has been removed from the cruise ship and sent to a hospital, even if they didn't have symptoms. Disease spread on a cruise ship is almost always a function of the large shared dining/entertainment rooms, where a lot of people can be exposed to an infected person, not through air-recirculation, so the threat for someone in quarantine isn't that high. (Think of cons, where people go off to their own hotel rooms at the end of the day.) The people in quarantine are nervious because they're human, but coronavirus isn't magic.
well, which is it? :?
It's basically a cold virus, but the upper respiratory system involvement is very low until it really breaks out. So if a sick person coughs or sneezes, you could get it. But they probably "only" cough and sneeze a little bit more often than a healthy person at that stage.
So what happened with like, the tour bus driver or whoever that got it?
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I guess I hadn't read any of the reporting, but this makes the most obvious sense. Remove/quarantine any infected, disinfect everything to the best of your ability, and watch everyone else to try and catch any new cases that crop up. This way you can keep the people on the ship as safe as possible, and still keep them out of the general population to avoid spreading as much as possible.
As for the Japanese claims of no air borne infection vs Chinese, I wonder if this is a translation confusion where Japanese reports are saying that it hadn't spread through large scale air movement, and Chinese reports getting sneezed on as a vector.
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The whole point of guarantining potential carriers is that you can keep them away from general public until you can make sure they are not carriers.
You can run "what if they miss it by XYZ sequence of events" all day, and yes, that is possible. That would be bad.
But you also have to trust that public health officials on the ground, who have vastly more complete information than we do, have also thought of that.
In the absence of evidence that the disease can grow outside the body (ie legionella or something like that that can survive on its own in air conditioning systems) there isn’t much downside to keeping apparently healthy people in the ship confined to quarters and removing people for treatment as they get infected.
What’s the alternative? Throwing them in a tent city? Clearing out a hotel to use as quarantine space that would have all the same problems? You can’t just let everyone go and send them home, and given that, the ship really isn’t any worse an environment than anywhere else that would have central air.
Yeah, that's bullshit.
There aren't enough available hospital beds or similar facilities to house and additional .002% of the population of Japan? What is their plan when this spreads to Japan? Admit the first 100 people to get it then the rest are on their own?
Excluding federal facilities, there are almost 30k acute care hospital beds in Illinois population 12.75m, with generally between 50-75% occupancy rates. Meaning there are at least twice the needed number of beds available right now in a state 1/10th the size of Japan.
Why the hell would you as a government take people off a quarantined vassal and put them on your densely populated islands to increase likely spread and speed of infection?
Literally my first search result on Google. It's a company out of Russia that specializes in building temporary dwellings for construction sites in the Pacific Rim region, because that's a regular thing that remote construction sites around the world use all the damn time. You wouldn't have to ship any more food or water to the site than is already getting sent to the cruise ship, because people are already pretty good at setting this shit up professionally. Military forces have been doing this sort of shit for thousands of years and the Romans managed to do it fairly safely before they even understood disease and infections. Modern companies that specialize in this can put down all sorts of structure types without difficulty, from power units to sleeping quarters to kitchens.
So yeah, it is a shame I didn't put any money on that bet, because it turns out it would've been pretty dang easy to collect.
I gotta keep making bets with you, I'll never have to pay for lunch again.
That solves none of the problems I listed, most especially, 'taking people off a ship that already does everything that that construction does for them, solves none of the problems of having them in close quarters on a ship with climate control, running water, and food, instead cramming them into tents, and putting them someplace with no existing infrastructure, sanitation, or even guarantee of existing at high tide. I'll raise you your 'first google result' for 'do you know what islands actually are? Do you know what around there can be used?"
I'll give you a little respite for your ignorance and not keep kicking you too much when you're down, but even if what you're thinking was remotely feasible, it'd mean instead of having a quarantined boat within easy reach of Tokyo, which makes the logistics of getting medicine and supplies and anything else they need easy, you've moved it hundreds of miles away, at least, and scattered all the people on it on multiple, tiny, undeveloped islands.
That's why people nattering on about 'calculus' might be speaking English, but the words they're typing don't actually make sense.
Maybe I can rope Tinwhiskers into the betting game too, make a little extra on the side over his inability to understand we're not talking about just hospital beds, but securely isolating 3,600 people exposed to the virus for weeks or months, while bringing them into a metroplex of 30ish million people.
How many of those acute care beds are adequately set up for quarantine procedures. How many hospitals is it across. Are you shuffling nurses/doctors between all of these buildings to keep down the number medical staff you are exposing, or are you letting each hospital expose some portion of their own staff to the Carona Virus?
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The crew are not confined to rooms, and have been given inadequate training on how to avoid the infection. If more people get sick, it will be because of stuff like this, not the air circulation system. Per-room quarantine doesn't mean much if some of the people under quarantine are allowed to run around the ship and prepare food for others.
The island idea fails first because there are no suitable islands anywhere nearby, and if somehow there were a string of majestic, Moana-esque tropical isles just outside Tokyo Harbor, only needing bulldozing and some Russian company to throw together prehabs to be ready... you're giving the passengers the EXACT same situation they had on the cruise ship, only worse.
For Tinwhiskers, the problem isn't number of hospital beds, it's keeping that 3,600 people exposed to the virus quarantined until everyone is healthy again and they can reenter contact with the general population. You have to get them into the city, to a medical center big enough, and secure enough to house them all. Maybe the U.S. could do it easily, repurpose a couple of empty Walmarts in rural bumfuck South Carolina with no one around them, and easily controlled access. The luxury of space and distance isn't something they have in Japan, especially not around the most populated urban center in the country.
This one seems very controlled. Arrived last Wednesday to Miramar, which means they were evacuating people from Wuhan to San Diego under quarantine. That means that this particular individual has a very low probability of having spread this anywhere else and certainly contracted the virus in Wuhan. They've been relocated to UCSD medical center.
Still waiting to see if there's an uptick in international cases, but at this point they might just go unnoticed as standard flu.
Indeed, to be 100% clear this seems to be someone who was on an evacuation flight and was in quarantine since they stepped onto US soil. It's effectively showing "this is why the quarantine was a decent idea to help slow the spread and limit exposures"
Yeah, I think we're at a point with this where news about successful containment needs to be getting more coverage. We need to reinforce to people that it's important to stay rational about this whole thing and cooperate with things like quarantine measures. Yes, there are some areas badly effected by this, but is nothing like some crazy hyperbolic Hollywood disease film.
Epidemics still happen, they aren't the end of the world, and this sort of thing can absolutely be contained with cooperative effort.
Well, in reality the most important and realistic goal here is to slow down any breach of containment as much as possible. There are plenty of beds available for cases like the ones raising from this illness, however, they are overwhelmingly full of old people sick with the flu. If this virus does become pandemic, those beds will be needed for elederly coranivirus patients. In addition, there's no reason to think that this virus will be different from 99% of other Corona viruses and that its spread will be hugely hindered by the end of winter. As such, every day of succesful containment both gets us out of flu season, makes the weather warmer, and gives more opportunities to develop therapies, tests and a possible vaccine.
Exterminitation would be wonderful, but every day the virus can be delayed will save lives.
CBS this morning reported that the new patient in San Diego was "mistakenly" released from the quarantine because they didnt show any symptoms and tested negative. They also said a second person from that flight has just started to show symptoms, and everyone else from the flight that is still in quarantine will be released tomorrow if they still show no symptoms.
I like how you're vague about Ebola. The tiny silver lining about the West African outbreak is that we actually had enough cases to figure out what the major cause of death from Ebola is - dehydration. People aren't dying from massive hemorrhaging or whatever; they're constantly vomiting with uncontrollable diarrhea and lose fluids until they die. The death rates were so extremely high because this was happening in areas where medicine is so limited; the only treatment they could attempt was trying to give people oral rehydration fluid, but most people either were too weak to drink it or vomited it back up anyway. (The uncontrollable hiccups that half of all Ebola patients get probably didn't help.) Just having IV fluids available would greatly reduce the death rate, even before experimental antiviral treatments.
To expand on this a little with UCSD's statements. The patient was mistakenly released from the UCSD medical center back to quarantine at Miramar after the CDC said they tested negative. The hospital said the patient was transported by federal Marshals back to Miramar on Sunday and then returned to the hospital on Monday and that all parties were wearing protective gear during the transit's per CDC recommendations
Yeah, I dont remember any of that being mentioned in the report
It's in the San Diego Union Tribune report on it.
It will be referred to as COVID-19, according to the WHO.
Immediate Google searches for the term "covid" reveals a company in Tempe, Arizona that's likely to be quite unhappy with this naming convention.
Sure, but it's irresponsible for CBS to run a report at the top of the broadcast implying someone fucked up and risked the health of the general public. The vast majority of people will see a report from the news and never do any follow up on their own
But the Corona beer company is probably pleased.