[Coronavirus] Thread - SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

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  • TetraNitroCubaneTetraNitroCubane Registered User regular
    edited February 13
    Yesterday saw an additional 1,638 new cases and 94 new deaths in Hubei, China.

    Today they are reporting 14,840 new cases and 242 new deaths. (Official source of these numbers is here, but the website is getting slammed right now)



    That's a considerable increase in both new cases and deaths. Though I have to wonder if that's due to a considerable lag time in reporting.

    Edit: Another possibility for the increased jump in new cases would be that the medical facilities in the region are receiving more testing equipment, and are testing more people, faster. There was some talk previously about hospitals in Hubei hitting their ceiling for equipment and staff when it came to testing.

    Also, it looks like they are now adding clinically diagnosed cases to the total - meaning that those diagnosed by a doctor, not necessarily via labwork.

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  • Anon the FelonAnon the Felon In bat country.Registered User regular
    Reading about the numbers being constrained by testing equipment and, oops, maybe this is worse than we thought...

    It just gives me Chernobyl vibes. I know it's just because of the miniseries, and it's totally unrelated, but that was the first thing I thought about. "Wasn't that a problem with another communist country and a world crisis? Oh yeah..."

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  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    Yesterday saw an additional 1,638 new cases and 94 new deaths in Hubei, China.

    Today they are reporting 14,840 new cases and 242 new deaths. (Official source of these numbers is here, but the website is getting slammed right now)



    That's a considerable increase in both new cases and deaths. Though I have to wonder if that's due to a considerable lag time in reporting.

    Edit: Another possibility for the increased jump in new cases would be that the medical facilities in the region are receiving more testing equipment, and are testing more people, faster. There was some talk previously about hospitals in Hubei hitting their ceiling for equipment and staff when it came to testing.

    Also, it looks like they are now adding clinically diagnosed cases to the total - meaning that those diagnosed by a doctor, not necessarily via labwork.


    In addition, these are all cases which have been diagnosed by this method during the outbreak. It's not like these were all diagnosed yesterday. It's just a better idea of the real numbers.

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  • MayabirdMayabird Pecking at the keyboardRegistered User regular
    China's numbers for the last few days had been a bit suspect because they briefly decided to stop reporting positive cases that were asymptomatic, which is not how any of this works. This big jump is likely catching up to the "real" numbers they should've been reporting, though even those are likely too low.
    It just gives me Chernobyl vibes. I know it's just because of the miniseries, and it's totally unrelated, but that was the first thing I thought about. "Wasn't that a problem with another communist country and a world crisis? Oh yeah..."

    Chernobyl did contribute mightily to the collapse of the Soviet Union...

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  • FrostwoodFrostwood Registered User regular
    edited February 13
    These 13,000 new cases are mostly detected by scanning for Pneumonia- and about 15-25% of patients develop Pneumonia it seems with COVID so the numbers are actually much higher.
    86,666(at 15% of cases) to 52,000 (at 25% of cases), if you want to extrapolate the numbers using simple math.

    Yesterday's numbers with the new procedures is:

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  • Zilla360Zilla360 21st Century. |She/Her| Surreal. Immersive. Earth.Registered User regular
    Denialism would seem to be a common thread between the two events.

    Whether or not it will affect the Chinese government in any significant way is something we will only know, definitively, with the benefit of historical hindsight, hopefully once this virus is in the rear view mirror of world events.

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  • VishNubVishNub Registered User regular
    I would caution against extrapolating with simple math

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  • FrostwoodFrostwood Registered User regular
    VishNub wrote: »
    I would caution against extrapolating with simple math

    It can be either two things-the number is exactly the number of cases which is bad, as it means this disease has a high rate of complications or the number is the cases of pneumonia is much lower then the mild cases,.

  • VishNubVishNub Registered User regular
    edited February 13
    Frostwood wrote: »
    VishNub wrote: »
    I would caution against extrapolating with simple math

    It can be either two things-the number is exactly the number of cases which is bad, as it means this disease has a high rate of complications or the number is the cases of pneumonia is much lower then the mild cases,.

    Or it’s somewhere in between or it’s some other number entirely because the numbers reported to the government in China are probably wrong and the numbers reported to us by the Chinese government are definitely wrong.

    We have insufficient, shitty data. The rest is speculation

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  • VishNubVishNub Registered User regular
    edited February 13
    The numbers I do trust are the international ones, which have so far remained low.

    But, as others have pointed out, it’s too early to say with a lot of confidence that that means we’ve successfully isolated them.

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  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    Frostwood wrote: »
    VishNub wrote: »
    I would caution against extrapolating with simple math

    It can be either two things-the number is exactly the number of cases which is bad, as it means this disease has a high rate of complications or the number is the cases of pneumonia is much lower then the mild cases,.

    I would say this. From the 1st of February to the 8th of February cases went from 14.3k to 36.8k. More than doubling inside a week. From the 6th to the 13th, including these new numbers, cases went from 30.6 k to 59.8 k, less than doubling. To me this would indicate a consistent story, born out by the rates of infections we see overseas, that the massive quarantine efforts in Wuhan are working, however, as we should expect, there are actually far more cases than are being reported. Its a confusing situation, where we are seeing a combination of corruption, confusion, and simple lack of information. However, the more we get numbers from places where we can trust the numbers, it seems like the rate of spread should be controllable by the measures we see happening in China.

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  • TetraNitroCubaneTetraNitroCubane Registered User regular
    edited February 13
    So, it seems that things aren't going so well at Miramar Airforce Base in San Diego. A local news report indicates that the evacuees in quarantine have started a petition because they feel the CDC are mishandling the situation.

    There's a deeper interview with some of the impacted individuals in an article on the Daily Beast.
    Jacob Wilson, a 33-year-old American evacuee from Louisiana who works at a tech start-up in Wuhan—the Chinese epicenter of the virus—told The Daily Beast he signed the petition in order to correct what he called “damn near criminal” and “irresponsible” actions by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) officials responsible for the base’s quarantine protocols.

    The petition asks that “everyone in the facility be tested;” that the evacuees be given masks and disinfectants; that hand sanitizers be available in public areas, including a playground; that they not be forced to gather in large groups; that town hall meetings be conducted via conference call; and that public areas be regularly disinfected throughout the day.
    “The CDC’s current working assumption is the virus won’t spread until symptoms develop,” the petition says. “However, we strongly disagree with using that assumption as the basis against broader testing.”

    The CDC did not immediately respond to a request for comment from The Daily Beast on Wednesday.

    “Everyone who reads about these intensive CDC screenings doesn’t realize that we aren’t even being tested,” said Wilson. “The screenings are a huge joke: temperature check and are you symptomatic. That’s it.”
    Many evacuees feel that the instructions from the CDC have been confusing and even contradictory, he continued. “They have told us to stand six feet away from each other, and then have us stand shoulder-to-shoulder when they take our temperature,” which Wilson claimed “flies in the face of the protections and precautions.”
    Wilson said other evacuees were told that the infected woman “had no close contacts,” but that such a claim begged the question, “Who was she sitting next to for 12 hours on the flight? If sitting next to somebody shoulder-to-shoulder and talking to them for 12 hours doesn’t count as a close contact, then what does?”

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  • honoverehonovere Registered User regular
    That went totally in a different direction than I expected after reading the first sentences.

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  • Jam WarriorJam Warrior Registered User regular
    This is the kind of bullshit reaction from authorities that really doesn't help:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-51484625

    Cruise ship, at sea for two weeks, no signs of any cases, so probably one of the most guaranteed virus free places on earth! And refused docking in 5 places out of pure unfounded fear.

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  • bloodyroarxxbloodyroarxx Casa GrandeRegistered User regular
    Yeah man, I tell ya what, man, that dang ol' internet, man, you just go in on there and point and click, talk about w-w-dot-w-com, mean you got the naked chicks on there, man, just go click, click, click, click, click, it's real easy, man.
  • KarozKaroz Avatar by M Lee Lunsford Registered User regular
    NPR article on changes in reporting Coronavirus cases in China
    Hubei, where the majority of the world's infections have been concentrated, added a new category of "clinical cases" to its reporting. Now, patients will be included who exhibit all the symptoms of COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus — including fever, cough and shortness of breath — but have either not been tested or tested negative for the virus itself.
    Hubei province reported 14,840 new cases Thursday, compared to 1,638 new cases the day before. Hubei also reported 242 new deaths, more than double the 94 reported on Wednesday.

    I guess it's good to get better numbers due to lack of testing kits but may also overestimate as well?

  • RaijuRaiju regular Registered User regular

    Speaking as a resident of Tokyo, that's just super.

  • MayabirdMayabird Pecking at the keyboardRegistered User regular
    So, it seems that things aren't going so well at Miramar Airforce Base in San Diego. A local news report indicates that the evacuees in quarantine have started a petition because they feel the CDC are mishandling the situation.

    So the US government wants to treat them like detainees in concentration camps, killing through neglect and intentional incompetence? It's always how these things work - people think only those people will be targeted, then suddenly find that they have become those people.

    I clicked on that to read the article and saw an even newer breaking news, fifteen minutes old: an 80 year old woman in Japan had died of it. Since it was so new details were lacking, but yeah, looks like it's definitely in the wild in Japan now. I had been seeing estimates of a 4-10 week lag because of the long incubation time before it would become obvious that an outbreak had occurred. We're starting to enter that period.

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  • DirtmuncherDirtmuncher Registered User regular
    Mayabird wrote: »
    So, it seems that things aren't going so well at Miramar Airforce Base in San Diego. A local news report indicates that the evacuees in quarantine have started a petition because they feel the CDC are mishandling the situation.

    So the US government wants to treat them like detainees in concentration camps, killing through neglect and intentional incompetence? It's always how these things work - people think only those people will be targeted, then suddenly find that they have become those people.

    I clicked on that to read the article and saw an even newer breaking news, fifteen minutes old: an 80 year old woman in Japan had died of it. Since it was so new details were lacking, but yeah, looks like it's definitely in the wild in Japan now. I had been seeing estimates of a 4-10 week lag because of the long incubation time before it would become obvious that an outbreak had occurred. We're starting to enter that period.

    Luckily taxi drivers don't have a lot of interaction with multiple other people in the course of a day. /s

    When will we stop flights to and from Japan? Will the rest of the world also lock down cities with millions of inhabitants just like China has done?

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  • TetraNitroCubaneTetraNitroCubane Registered User regular
    edited February 13
    The US also sees its 14th confirmed case, though it appears to be one of the people under quarantine in San Diego.

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  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    Mayabird wrote: »
    So, it seems that things aren't going so well at Miramar Airforce Base in San Diego. A local news report indicates that the evacuees in quarantine have started a petition because they feel the CDC are mishandling the situation.

    So the US government wants to treat them like detainees in concentration camps, killing through neglect and intentional incompetence? It's always how these things work - people think only those people will be targeted, then suddenly find that they have become those people.

    I clicked on that to read the article and saw an even newer breaking news, fifteen minutes old: an 80 year old woman in Japan had died of it. Since it was so new details were lacking, but yeah, looks like it's definitely in the wild in Japan now. I had been seeing estimates of a 4-10 week lag because of the long incubation time before it would become obvious that an outbreak had occurred. We're starting to enter that period.

    Luckily taxi drivers don't have a lot of interaction with multiple other people in the course of a day. /s

    When will we stop flights to and from Japan? Will the rest of the world also lock down cities with millions of inhabitants just like China has done?

    The hope for other countries is that they will implement wide scale early screening programs in hospitals and encourage people to come in if they have flu like symptoms with the goal of catching more than 50% of infections before they infect anybody else. This will hugely slow, and possibly eliminate the infection in a country in the early stages. Beyond that, early cancellation of major public events and random screenings, especially in schools (children aren't a risk group, but will likely spread the virus) should also slow progression.

    The main reason this virus has been so crippling to the chinese economy is that they are trying to actually eliminate it completely. Once you accept that you can no longer do that (and it's too early to do that) then it actually becomes much easier to care for Corona patients, since they stop requiring isolation etc and just require normal care, with far more of them recovering at home.

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  • MazzyxMazzyx Comedy Gold Registered User regular
    Mayabird wrote: »
    So, it seems that things aren't going so well at Miramar Airforce Base in San Diego. A local news report indicates that the evacuees in quarantine have started a petition because they feel the CDC are mishandling the situation.

    So the US government wants to treat them like detainees in concentration camps, killing through neglect and intentional incompetence? It's always how these things work - people think only those people will be targeted, then suddenly find that they have become those people.

    I clicked on that to read the article and saw an even newer breaking news, fifteen minutes old: an 80 year old woman in Japan had died of it. Since it was so new details were lacking, but yeah, looks like it's definitely in the wild in Japan now. I had been seeing estimates of a 4-10 week lag because of the long incubation time before it would become obvious that an outbreak had occurred. We're starting to enter that period.

    Luckily taxi drivers don't have a lot of interaction with multiple other people in the course of a day. /s

    When will we stop flights to and from Japan? Will the rest of the world also lock down cities with millions of inhabitants just like China has done?

    Japan has incredibly intense screening. I lived through swine flu there. The country is obsessed with this stuff. It isn't exactly the same as China with resources and access to care. Nor the ability to do what China has done.

    China's reactions are very much embedded with fallout from SARS and internal political pressure that has caused and the fact it hit during a major migration (400 million people travel for Lunar New Year in China, that is more people than the population of the US). I doubt you will see similar reactions or need for such actions in Japan.

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  • TetraNitroCubaneTetraNitroCubane Registered User regular
    edited February 13
    15th case in the US now confirmed by the CDC, this one's in Texas.



    Having a hard time finding details, as the link just goes to their liveblog that doesn't mention Texas, but I will update as they become available.

    EDIT: More information:



    Looks like another person who was evacuated from Hubei directly to quarantine.

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  • Senna1Senna1 Registered User regular
    edited February 13
    Mayabird wrote: »
    So, it seems that things aren't going so well at Miramar Airforce Base in San Diego. A local news report indicates that the evacuees in quarantine have started a petition because they feel the CDC are mishandling the situation.

    So the US government wants to treat them like detainees in concentration camps, killing through neglect and intentional incompetence? It's always how these things work - people think only those people will be targeted, then suddenly find that they have become those people.
    Well, that's certainly a take...

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  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    Senna1 wrote: »
    Mayabird wrote: »
    So, it seems that things aren't going so well at Miramar Airforce Base in San Diego. A local news report indicates that the evacuees in quarantine have started a petition because they feel the CDC are mishandling the situation.

    So the US government wants to treat them like detainees in concentration camps, killing through neglect and intentional incompetence? It's always how these things work - people think only those people will be targeted, then suddenly find that they have become those people.
    Well, that's certainly a take...

    It honestly seems like,if this report is real and actually represents the situation, the people at the camp want more rules, more compulsory testing, moreisolation and less amenities. As in, the government is being too soft on them and they are worried about infection.

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  • EncEnc A Fool with Compassion The Land of Flowers (and Dragons)Registered User regular
    Mayabird wrote: »
    So, it seems that things aren't going so well at Miramar Airforce Base in San Diego. A local news report indicates that the evacuees in quarantine have started a petition because they feel the CDC are mishandling the situation.

    So the US government wants to treat them like detainees in concentration camps, killing through neglect and intentional incompetence? It's always how these things work - people think only those people will be targeted, then suddenly find that they have become those people.

    Maya, the complaint is that the CDC is doing a bad job of quarantining them and that they are likely to cause the virus to spread. They are asking for more stringent protocols, not luxuires.

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  • kimekime Queen of Blades Registered User regular
    Enc wrote: »
    Mayabird wrote: »
    So, it seems that things aren't going so well at Miramar Airforce Base in San Diego. A local news report indicates that the evacuees in quarantine have started a petition because they feel the CDC are mishandling the situation.

    So the US government wants to treat them like detainees in concentration camps, killing through neglect and intentional incompetence? It's always how these things work - people think only those people will be targeted, then suddenly find that they have become those people.

    Maya, the complaint is that the CDC is doing a bad job of quarantining them and that they are likely to cause the virus to spread. They are asking for more stringent protocols, not luxuires.

    And yet, in a way it's similar (if the report is true). They are unable to leave and the government is forcing them into unsafe, possibly disease-ridden close quarters with the others who are unable to leave

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  • Giggles_FunsworthGiggles_Funsworth Paranoiac Bay Area SprawlRegistered User regular
    tbloxham wrote: »
    Mayabird wrote: »
    So, it seems that things aren't going so well at Miramar Airforce Base in San Diego. A local news report indicates that the evacuees in quarantine have started a petition because they feel the CDC are mishandling the situation.

    So the US government wants to treat them like detainees in concentration camps, killing through neglect and intentional incompetence? It's always how these things work - people think only those people will be targeted, then suddenly find that they have become those people.

    I clicked on that to read the article and saw an even newer breaking news, fifteen minutes old: an 80 year old woman in Japan had died of it. Since it was so new details were lacking, but yeah, looks like it's definitely in the wild in Japan now. I had been seeing estimates of a 4-10 week lag because of the long incubation time before it would become obvious that an outbreak had occurred. We're starting to enter that period.

    Luckily taxi drivers don't have a lot of interaction with multiple other people in the course of a day. /s

    When will we stop flights to and from Japan? Will the rest of the world also lock down cities with millions of inhabitants just like China has done?

    The hope for other countries is that they will implement wide scale early screening programs in hospitals and encourage people to come in if they have flu like symptoms with the goal of catching more than 50% of infections before they infect anybody else. This will hugely slow, and possibly eliminate the infection in a country in the early stages. Beyond that, early cancellation of major public events and random screenings, especially in schools (children aren't a risk group, but will likely spread the virus) should also slow progression.

    The main reason this virus has been so crippling to the chinese economy is that they are trying to actually eliminate it completely. Once you accept that you can no longer do that (and it's too early to do that) then it actually becomes much easier to care for Corona patients, since they stop requiring isolation etc and just require normal care, with far more of them recovering at home.

    Good thing healthcare is so affordable and labor rights are well developed in the US. Otherwise you'd have people that couldn't afford to go to the doctor and couldn't afford to miss work over a cold and we'd really be in trouble.

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  • MazzyxMazzyx Comedy Gold Registered User regular
    Also that feels like a different story than I was hearing from another person in quarantine in Miramar.

    https://www.npr.org/2020/02/12/805397055/journalist-recounts-nearly-a-month-under-coronavirus-quarantine

    Though most of this was about their time in Hubei. Person being interviewed is a reporter for the Wall Street Journal.

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  • TetraNitroCubaneTetraNitroCubane Registered User regular
    An interesting development - It seems that testing may occur for people in the US who have NOT been to China recently, but are displaying flu-like symptoms.


    CDC will begin using the national flu surveillance tracking system with health departments in 5 cities to test patients with flu-like symptoms for #coronavirus. This is an important and prudent step that’ll help identify outbreaks earlier. The cities are SF, LA, ATL, Chicago, NY.

    Source is Scott Gottlieb, former commissioner of the US Food and Drug Administration.

    If true this is a step in the right direction to head off, and slow down, larger outbreaks.

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  • Giggles_FunsworthGiggles_Funsworth Paranoiac Bay Area SprawlRegistered User regular
    Senna1 wrote: »
    Mayabird wrote: »
    So, it seems that things aren't going so well at Miramar Airforce Base in San Diego. A local news report indicates that the evacuees in quarantine have started a petition because they feel the CDC are mishandling the situation.

    So the US government wants to treat them like detainees in concentration camps, killing through neglect and intentional incompetence? It's always how these things work - people think only those people will be targeted, then suddenly find that they have become those people.
    Well, that's certainly a take...

    Not really. We're applying the same level of competence to this that we are influenza outbreaks in the concentration camps; maybe a little less malice. Not surprising considering what the Trump admin has done to disease control related budgets. And if this makes it into the concentration camps it's going to be truly horrific if that stat about 25-50% of people with this needing ventilators bears out. Remember, they arrested doctors that wanted to provide detainees with flu shots, and they're holding them in extremely unsanitary crowded conditions. It will also spread into migrant communities from there and reach epidemic levels pretty rapidly; which is half the point of denying them medical care for transmissible diseases in the first place.

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  • a5ehrena5ehren AtlantaRegistered User regular
    Senna1 wrote: »
    Mayabird wrote: »
    So, it seems that things aren't going so well at Miramar Airforce Base in San Diego. A local news report indicates that the evacuees in quarantine have started a petition because they feel the CDC are mishandling the situation.

    So the US government wants to treat them like detainees in concentration camps, killing through neglect and intentional incompetence? It's always how these things work - people think only those people will be targeted, then suddenly find that they have become those people.
    Well, that's certainly a take...

    Not really. We're applying the same level of competence to this that we are influenza outbreaks in the concentration camps; maybe a little less malice. Not surprising considering what the Trump admin has done to disease control related budgets. And if this makes it into the concentration camps it's going to be truly horrific if that stat about 25-50% of people with this needing ventilators bears out. Remember, they arrested doctors that wanted to provide detainees with flu shots, and they're holding them in extremely unsanitary crowded conditions. It will also spread into migrant communities from there and reach epidemic levels pretty rapidly; which is half the point of denying them medical care for transmissible diseases in the first place.

    Completely unrelated to the actual article or the post you're responding to, though.

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  • Senna1Senna1 Registered User regular
    Senna1 wrote: »
    Mayabird wrote: »
    So, it seems that things aren't going so well at Miramar Airforce Base in San Diego. A local news report indicates that the evacuees in quarantine have started a petition because they feel the CDC are mishandling the situation.

    So the US government wants to treat them like detainees in concentration camps, killing through neglect and intentional incompetence? It's always how these things work - people think only those people will be targeted, then suddenly find that they have become those people.
    Well, that's certainly a take...

    Not really. We're applying the same level of competence to this that we are influenza outbreaks in the concentration camps; maybe a little less malice. Not surprising considering what the Trump admin has done to disease control related budgets. And if this makes it into the concentration camps it's going to be truly horrific if that stat about 25-50% of people with this needing ventilators bears out. Remember, they arrested doctors that wanted to provide detainees with flu shots, and they're holding them in extremely unsanitary crowded conditions. It will also spread into migrant communities from there and reach epidemic levels pretty rapidly; which is half the point of denying them medical care for transmissible diseases in the first place.
    How generous of you to grant that the NIH and CDC act with "maybe a little less malice" than CBP.

    I know it's a popular view in certain segments to view the Govn't, especially under Trump, as some monlithic (proto)fascist entity of evil. But quite simply, you're wrong. Do not ascribe whatever grievances you have with CBP/ICE to the CDC. They're not even remotely the same things.

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  • ThawmusThawmus Registered User regular
    Senna1 wrote: »
    Senna1 wrote: »
    Mayabird wrote: »
    So, it seems that things aren't going so well at Miramar Airforce Base in San Diego. A local news report indicates that the evacuees in quarantine have started a petition because they feel the CDC are mishandling the situation.

    So the US government wants to treat them like detainees in concentration camps, killing through neglect and intentional incompetence? It's always how these things work - people think only those people will be targeted, then suddenly find that they have become those people.
    Well, that's certainly a take...

    Not really. We're applying the same level of competence to this that we are influenza outbreaks in the concentration camps; maybe a little less malice. Not surprising considering what the Trump admin has done to disease control related budgets. And if this makes it into the concentration camps it's going to be truly horrific if that stat about 25-50% of people with this needing ventilators bears out. Remember, they arrested doctors that wanted to provide detainees with flu shots, and they're holding them in extremely unsanitary crowded conditions. It will also spread into migrant communities from there and reach epidemic levels pretty rapidly; which is half the point of denying them medical care for transmissible diseases in the first place.
    How generous of you to grant that the NIH and CDC act with "maybe a little less malice" than CBP.

    I know it's a popular view in certain segments to view the Govn't, especially under Trump, as some monlithic (proto)fascist entity of evil. But quite simply, you're wrong. Do not ascribe whatever grievances you have with CBP/ICE to the CDC. They're not even remotely the same things.

    What if I ascribe my grievances with the CDC with the way Republicans have treated them for years by underfunding the shit out of them and removing one tooth after another from the agency?

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  • Giggles_FunsworthGiggles_Funsworth Paranoiac Bay Area SprawlRegistered User regular
    Thawmus wrote: »
    Senna1 wrote: »
    Senna1 wrote: »
    Mayabird wrote: »
    So, it seems that things aren't going so well at Miramar Airforce Base in San Diego. A local news report indicates that the evacuees in quarantine have started a petition because they feel the CDC are mishandling the situation.

    So the US government wants to treat them like detainees in concentration camps, killing through neglect and intentional incompetence? It's always how these things work - people think only those people will be targeted, then suddenly find that they have become those people.
    Well, that's certainly a take...

    Not really. We're applying the same level of competence to this that we are influenza outbreaks in the concentration camps; maybe a little less malice. Not surprising considering what the Trump admin has done to disease control related budgets. And if this makes it into the concentration camps it's going to be truly horrific if that stat about 25-50% of people with this needing ventilators bears out. Remember, they arrested doctors that wanted to provide detainees with flu shots, and they're holding them in extremely unsanitary crowded conditions. It will also spread into migrant communities from there and reach epidemic levels pretty rapidly; which is half the point of denying them medical care for transmissible diseases in the first place.
    How generous of you to grant that the NIH and CDC act with "maybe a little less malice" than CBP.

    I know it's a popular view in certain segments to view the Govn't, especially under Trump, as some monlithic (proto)fascist entity of evil. But quite simply, you're wrong. Do not ascribe whatever grievances you have with CBP/ICE to the CDC. They're not even remotely the same things.

    What if I ascribe my grievances with the CDC with the way Republicans have treated them for years by underfunding the shit out of them and removing one tooth after another from the agency?

    This is all I was saying and I'm not sure why people think I got a bone to pick with underpaid scientists and doctors working for an organization that has been starved by callous, short sighted Republicans. And I don't really see how mentioning the way this is going to rip though the concentration camps we're running and the immigrant populations outside of them that cycle in and out is going to affect a potential epidemic in the US.

    Hopefully the containment measures are effective and it doesn't come to that but having confirmed cases in two border states, and people in quarantine reporting that the measures being taken aren't appropriate doesn't have me super optimistic! Especially when our current government would see a pandemic centered on minority immigrant populations as a good thing, and have already created conditions that basically ensure one. If not this than it'll be influenza, or measles, or something else. It's a matter of time when you put large populations from diverse geographic locations in close, unsanitary quarters. It's basically how the Spanish Flu evolved to be so lethal, only instead of moving in unnatural patterns through hospitals it'll be the penal system.

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  • EncEnc A Fool with Compassion The Land of Flowers (and Dragons)Registered User regular
    They cannot simultaneously be totalitarian despots and ineffective underfunded paper departments. Like a lot of these takes attribute reality to science fiction, rather than actual cdc policy or actions.

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  • Giggles_FunsworthGiggles_Funsworth Paranoiac Bay Area SprawlRegistered User regular
    Enc wrote: »
    They cannot simultaneously be totalitarian despots and ineffective underfunded paper departments. Like a lot of these takes attribute reality to science fiction, rather than actual cdc policy or actions.

    Totalitarian despots aren't actually that competent, historically. You can do a lot of damage through incompetence with this sort of thing (like not following proper containment procedures), no malice intended.

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  • TraceTrace GNU Terry Pratchett; GNU Gus; GNU Carrie Fisher; GNU Adam We Registered User regular
    https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/13/health/coronavirus-cdc-robert-redfield-gupta-intv/index.html
    "Right now we're in an aggressive containment mode," CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield told CNN's Chief Medical Correspondent Dr. Sanjay Gupta in an interview on Thursday.
    "We don't know a lot about this virus," he said. "This virus is probably with us beyond this season, beyond this year, and I think eventually the virus will find a foothold and we will get community-based transmission."

    *low whistle*

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  • MayabirdMayabird Pecking at the keyboardRegistered User regular
    Vietnam either didn't get that memo about "it won't spread in warm temperatures" or they called BS on it, because they just quarantined a commune of a bit over 10,000 people to stop the spread of SARS2. The government will be providing compensation to the people under the quarantine, enough to cover food for the planned twenty days.

    Speaking of warm climates, Indonesia has been suspiciously unreporting of cases. They get plenty of Chinese tourists, especially to Bali, but they haven't even been doing testing (because it's expensive and they're corrupt). Can't say there are any cases when you don't test, right? Papua New Guinea in response has closed its borders to Indonesia in addition to China. I guess we'll start to know in a month or two.

    Also, updates from Japan: the elderly woman who died of what Taiwan is still calling the Wuhan coronavirus was the mother-in-law of the taxi driver who had also tested positive, so that's some contact tracing. In much worse news, a doctor in Wakayama Prefecture (south of Osaka) has tested positive, and so has a patient in the hospital where he works. You know what people were saying about folks going to work with symptoms? Japan is like that, but worse. The doctor had a high fever for days but kept coming to work. The hospital is mostly shut down while all the rest of the doctors and staff are being tested, because two have started to come down with pneumonia. I haven't seen word on whether officials are trying to contact every patient the doctor encountered during those days and the previous ones too.

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  • TetraNitroCubaneTetraNitroCubane Registered User regular
    It is getting remarkably hard to keep up with the news on COVID-19 at this point. Beyond the ballooning number of cases and deaths in Wuhan and Hubei, the international situation really feels like it is ramping up and getting away from everyone. Multiple reports of people in Japan with no connections to existing cases or China Travel keep rolling in, including a 50 year old man in Hokkaido and a 60 year old man in Aichi (Primary links are in Japanese, apologies).

    Furthermore, someone on a flight from San Francisco to Heathrow was suspected of developing symptoms while on the flight, meaning that untold numbers of people at SFO, and everyone on the flight, is now at risk.

    Tests for an infection of SARS-CoV-2 seem to be tenuous at best. There's plenty of reports of multiple false negatives preceding an eventual positive test result, meaning that the virus may not present itself for easy diagnosis.

    The incubation period, anecdotally, seems to still be around five days - but there's also been claims made from experts in China that it can take up to 24 days before symptoms begin to manifest.

    We have lots of reason to believe that this virus spreads asymptomatically, and that it does not require close contact or long contact to jump from person to person (cab drivers, for example).

    I feel like a lot of people are underestimating just how serious this is about to get.

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