It’s safe to say that it is out in the wild in at least isolated spots in the US now, right? We are like a week and a half or so before they really start to get into the start of that exponential growth curve that Italy just got to.
It's in the wild. >600 cases in the US. Of the cases with confirmed vectors, according to the CDC, 83 were travel (maybe including Diamond Princess?), but 36 were person-to-person. And five hundred something are "under investigation."
It's spreading from person to person, in multiple jurisdictions, and is particularly contagious. It's out, and it's gonna get worse. Not that you should panic, personally, but we are well past the point of being able to drive this to extinction short of forcing everyone to stay home for a month.
No matter what that's seemingly what we're gonna have to do eventually.
Ehh. I personally suspect that it'll get worse, hit a critical point, a shitton of mostly old people will die, then we will have enough immunity for it to just be another nasty virus you don't really want to get that floats around.
Or we'll end up with two influenzas.
Not that that's.. good.. but I suspect we won't manage to do that kind of quarantine before we hit a point where it's too late, and after that it'll be unnecessary due to how immune systems and disease transmission work.
Maybe I've missed something but does recovering from the sickness actually bestow both a lasting immunity and an inability to pass it on? because that sounds like a rosy assumption of how most disease response works that I've not heard direct evidence of for this particular virus. Very honestly if that's been proven I'd like to know.
Little is known about this, still. But adaptive immune systems are a hell of a thing. I'm not sure a virus exists that you don't get at least temporary immunity from infection after successfully recovering, because otherwise you just... die.
(If so) it's like the surf. If one wave doesn't get you, the next will, or the next...
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ShivahnUnaware of her barrel shifter privilegeWestern coastal temptressRegistered User, Moderatormod
It’s safe to say that it is out in the wild in at least isolated spots in the US now, right? We are like a week and a half or so before they really start to get into the start of that exponential growth curve that Italy just got to.
It's in the wild. >600 cases in the US. Of the cases with confirmed vectors, according to the CDC, 83 were travel (maybe including Diamond Princess?), but 36 were person-to-person. And five hundred something are "under investigation."
It's spreading from person to person, in multiple jurisdictions, and is particularly contagious. It's out, and it's gonna get worse. Not that you should panic, personally, but we are well past the point of being able to drive this to extinction short of forcing everyone to stay home for a month.
No matter what that's seemingly what we're gonna have to do eventually.
Ehh. I personally suspect that it'll get worse, hit a critical point, a shitton of mostly old people will die, then we will have enough immunity for it to just be another nasty virus you don't really want to get that floats around.
Or we'll end up with two influenzas.
Not that that's.. good.. but I suspect we won't manage to do that kind of quarantine before we hit a point where it's too late, and after that it'll be unnecessary due to how immune systems and disease transmission work.
Eh.. The speed of transmission is super important here. If 20% of a population need hospital beds to survive this, you'll lose them all when those beds are full.
Without modern medicine, this thing would easily be up to 10 times as deadly as the 1920 Spanish Flu Pandemic.
And if your modern medicine facilities are overrun, you end up back at that point.
So slowing it down must be what everyone strives to do, with hand hygiene, coughing / sneezing etiquette and social distancing
I don't disagree with any of this, I don't think. I'm just pessimistic of our (the US's) capability of reacting in time to really be effective, and optimistic that this won't be some insane virus that defies the pattern that almost all other viruses adhere to, in terms of population epidemiology.
It’s safe to say that it is out in the wild in at least isolated spots in the US now, right? We are like a week and a half or so before they really start to get into the start of that exponential growth curve that Italy just got to.
I dunno how much it's spreading in the US outside of the hotspots already affected. Like, I'm in Eastern Washington and we haven't really seen anything despite all of the stuff blowing up in Western Washington. Closest we've had is someone down in Northeastern Oregon who ended up in a hospital in Southeastern Washington. We're all kinda on edge waiting for it to spill over.
germany will have you beat soon, I'm afraid. We're not cancelling soccer games with tens of thousands of stadium visitors this week and weekend. This is criminal, will end up killing a load of people, and everyone who insisted on not cancelling the stadium events is responsible for their deaths. Insane idiots.
I'd heard the matches weren't cancelled (for contractual/league reasons), but they're being played without spectators.
Due to Germany federalistic nature, the national health Minister can only recommend.
Rb Leipzig vs the Tottenham Hotspurs thus had full spectators, in one of the oldest, most tightly packed stadiums in the country, housing 22k people.
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JedocIn the scupperswith the staggers and jagsRegistered Userregular
It’s safe to say that it is out in the wild in at least isolated spots in the US now, right? We are like a week and a half or so before they really start to get into the start of that exponential growth curve that Italy just got to.
It's in the wild. >600 cases in the US. Of the cases with confirmed vectors, according to the CDC, 83 were travel (maybe including Diamond Princess?), but 36 were person-to-person. And five hundred something are "under investigation."
It's spreading from person to person, in multiple jurisdictions, and is particularly contagious. It's out, and it's gonna get worse. Not that you should panic, personally, but we are well past the point of being able to drive this to extinction short of forcing everyone to stay home for a month.
No matter what that's seemingly what we're gonna have to do eventually.
Ehh. I personally suspect that it'll get worse, hit a critical point, a shitton of mostly old people will die, then we will have enough immunity for it to just be another nasty virus you don't really want to get that floats around.
Or we'll end up with two influenzas.
Not that that's.. good.. but I suspect we won't manage to do that kind of quarantine before we hit a point where it's too late, and after that it'll be unnecessary due to how immune systems and disease transmission work.
Maybe I've missed something but does recovering from the sickness actually bestow both a lasting immunity and an inability to pass it on? because that sounds like a rosy assumption of how most disease response works that I've not heard direct evidence of for this particular virus. Very honestly if that's been proven I'd like to know.
Little is known about this, still. But adaptive immune systems are a hell of a thing. I'm not sure a virus exists that you don't get at least temporary immunity from infection after successfully recovering, because otherwise you just... die.
(If so) it's like the surf. If one wave doesn't get you, the next will, or the next...
I mean, yeah. But so far in human history, there haven't been any diseases like that.
The immune system is (as a wise person said) a hell of a thing. If you get a disease and don't die, you get mostly immune from that disease and partially immune to most of its mutations.
The reason the flu is so widespread is because it's harmless enough that it's easy to spread and most people don't die from it. The deadlier the disease, the less viable it is season after season.
So I just read a thing that made me realize that tipped wage earners are really going to suffer through this whole thing. People are avoiding going out, after all.
If you're going out, and if you can afford it, maybe tip a lot more heavily than you usually would. It's a tough old world out there right now.
The restaurant I work at in MN had less than a 5 minute wait at peak last weekend. Normally it would be an hour plus. Definitely affecting business.
That said I can't blame people. Lots of employeese living paycheck to paycheck and essentially forced to show up even if they aren't feeling well.
and I wonder about my neighbors even though I don't have them
but they're listening to every word I say
Someone translating an Italian newspaper that is linked. Her profile says she works as a head of the Berlin branch of an investment bank, but that isn't as important as the newspaper link, really.
China stepping up and helping a nato partner while we pretend nothing is happening.
Selling ventilator and masks, along with donating more suits, kits, and respirators
They learned the lessons we seem to have forgotten.
South Dakota is reporting 5 cases, one death. Unclear from the article if the other four are confirmed or presumptive, but they appear to be spread across half the state and they're saying they appear to have contracted it out of state.
Someone translating an Italian newspaper that is linked. Her profile says she works as a head of the Berlin branch of an investment bank, but that isn't as important as the newspaper link, really.
China stepping up and helping a nato partner while we pretend nothing is happening.
Selling ventilator and masks, along with donating more suits, kits, and respirators
They learned the lessons we seem to have forgotten.
Someone translating an Italian newspaper that is linked. Her profile says she works as a head of the Berlin branch of an investment bank, but that isn't as important as the newspaper link, really.
China stepping up and helping a nato partner while we pretend nothing is happening.
Selling ventilator and masks, along with donating more suits, kits, and respirators
They learned the lessons we seem to have forgotten.
Someone translating an Italian newspaper that is linked. Her profile says she works as a head of the Berlin branch of an investment bank, but that isn't as important as the newspaper link, really.
China stepping up and helping a nato partner while we pretend nothing is happening.
Selling ventilator and masks, along with donating more suits, kits, and respirators
They learned the lessons we seem to have forgotten.
Live together, or die alone?
Aid in a time of need is great for soft power.
pfft, that's so TwenCen. The 21st is all about "Fuck You, Got Mine".
Someone translating an Italian newspaper that is linked. Her profile says she works as a head of the Berlin branch of an investment bank, but that isn't as important as the newspaper link, really.
China stepping up and helping a nato partner while we pretend nothing is happening.
Selling ventilator and masks, along with donating more suits, kits, and respirators
They learned the lessons we seem to have forgotten.
Welp, I think I'm done trying to convince the rest of my family that Covid's actually a threat. What with the possible case up in Holland, I asked around what our plans were, and apparently it's "oh, don't go out into crowds and absolutely nothing else because the flu is still so much worse".
I mean, really? You look at the death rate, the infection rate, and you think the flu will be just as bad in the end? Yeah, nope. You're a medical professional who works with the elderly who can't take care of themselves. You are pretty much a disaster waiting to happen, and you're north of 60 yourself. It's people like you who will spread the virus around and once people start keeling over, you'll just say that Covid had nothing to do with it, or that the flu would have gotten them and it's more dangerous anyways.
The course of this thing takes about anywhere from a few weeks to a month and a half to get over. It's just... ugh. And nobody knows if it's a one and done or if it can keep re-infecting you over and over.
Someone translating an Italian newspaper that is linked. Her profile says she works as a head of the Berlin branch of an investment bank, but that isn't as important as the newspaper link, really.
China stepping up and helping a nato partner while we pretend nothing is happening.
Selling ventilator and masks, along with donating more suits, kits, and respirators
They learned the lessons we seem to have forgotten.
I mean all those things are probably made in china now. Makes it a lot easier to help others when you produce the item.
I can't help but think everyone in my house is downplaying it. 3 people went to a place with a. Confirmed case. They should not be goong to work, I should not be around them, but everyone thinks it's no big deal.
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WACriminalDying Is Easy, Young ManLiving Is HarderRegistered Userregular
Talked to my boss again today about our lackluster response. Found out the identity of the person in management who's the primary holdout so far, and that apparently that same person has asked management to meet again tomorrow morning to discuss stepping up our response.
Incubation period means the virus is probably 10-14 days ahead of where we see it, but with any luck we may get an office quarantine started before any of our people get it.
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TetraNitroCubaneThe DjinneratorAt the bottom of a bottleRegistered Userregular
edited March 2020
My parents and a lot of my loved ones are over 65.
If I have to watch them die to this, knowing full well they could be saved if it weren't for this country's greed and incompetence, it'll destroy me.
i don't think there's any doubt about that. philadelphia's first confirmed case had no known contact with any existing cases, so it's also out here.
I'm really hoping my office gets it together soon. At least they canceled the st. patricks day parade here finally. Doing the same dumbass thing 100 years apart during an epidemic would truly be beyond stupid.
I'm also worried about the pax east vector since I was there. 75% of the way through the 2 week period but unsure if I should be quarantining myself since it doesn't seem like there are any confirmed cases from the show proper just yet but idk.
My office just went fully forced work from home, for a month at minimum. It's an appropriate response but man I don't like WFH, either I'll lose my mind or completely come around on it in a week and not want to go back, we'll see.
My office just went fully forced work from home, for a month at minimum. It's an appropriate response but man I don't like WFH, either I'll lose my mind or completely come around on it in a week and not want to go back, we'll see.
I'm looking forward to working remotely starting next week. Not because of a mandate, just a new contract gig. I can hide from everyone successfully.
Once you realize the joy of video games at lunch, loud music through speakers, and an occasional early beer, you'll come around.
Every year, Savannah has a massive St. Patrick's Day party (only behind Boston in size) and the city cancelled it. Some of my friends are posting on FB about how it's ridiculous and everyone is blowing the virus out of proportion. Comments were in agreement. So this was my response:
"Canceling the parade was absolutely the right thing to do. Like, younger and middle-aged people could get the virus and be okay with some flu-like symptoms. But those same people could spread it to their moms, dads, or grandparents. The virus is SUPER lethal to older folks.
So it's extremely irresponsible to be out partying in crowded streets just because of a silly parade. Just remember how much your grandma loves you before you nonchalantly walk out the door.
We've had 23 deaths here already. While the virus shouldn't cause panic, it must be respected. Washing your hands is good, but not actively going out into public for no reason is better."
There's been no extra comments after what I wrote. Hopefully that shook some reality into folks, but don't be surprised in a spike in cases in Georgia one week from now.
Need a voice actor? Hire me at bengrayVO.com
Legends of Runeterra: MNCdover #moc
Switch ID: MNC Dover SW-1154-3107-1051 Steam ID Twitch Page
I've worked remote for almost 3 years now. It takes some getting used to, but for me having the right technology in place was important (video chat, collaboration platforms, good planning tools, etc). The 2 hardest pieces are 1) Missing human contact. I tend to go to the gym at lunch or after work to help with this. And 2) having regularly scheduled calls with management and your team to make sure everyone's still on the same page and for a bit of interaction (see #1).
Read the March 10 update on
seattle flu dot org and then the NY Times March 10 article about this study. I cannot post the URLs.
Samples tested last week indicate COVID19 was present in the Seattle area "Feb. 20, seven days before public health officials had any idea the virus was in the community."
It’s safe to say that it is out in the wild in at least isolated spots in the US now, right? We are like a week and a half or so before they really start to get into the start of that exponential growth curve that Italy just got to.
It's in the wild. >600 cases in the US. Of the cases with confirmed vectors, according to the CDC, 83 were travel (maybe including Diamond Princess?), but 36 were person-to-person. And five hundred something are "under investigation."
It's spreading from person to person, in multiple jurisdictions, and is particularly contagious. It's out, and it's gonna get worse. Not that you should panic, personally, but we are well past the point of being able to drive this to extinction short of forcing everyone to stay home for a month.
No matter what that's seemingly what we're gonna have to do eventually.
Ehh. I personally suspect that it'll get worse, hit a critical point, a shitton of mostly old people will die, then we will have enough immunity for it to just be another nasty virus you don't really want to get that floats around.
Or we'll end up with two influenzas.
Not that that's.. good.. but I suspect we won't manage to do that kind of quarantine before we hit a point where it's too late, and after that it'll be unnecessary due to how immune systems and disease transmission work.
Maybe I've missed something but does recovering from the sickness actually bestow both a lasting immunity and an inability to pass it on? because that sounds like a rosy assumption of how most disease response works that I've not heard direct evidence of for this particular virus. Very honestly if that's been proven I'd like to know.
Little is known about this, still. But adaptive immune systems are a hell of a thing. I'm not sure a virus exists that you don't get at least temporary immunity from infection after successfully recovering, because otherwise you just... die.
(If so) it's like the surf. If one wave doesn't get you, the next will, or the next...
I mean, yeah. But so far in human history, there haven't been any diseases like that.
The immune system is (as a wise person said) a hell of a thing. If you get a disease and don't die, you get mostly immune from that disease and partially immune to most of its mutations.
The reason the flu is so widespread is because it's harmless enough that it's easy to spread and most people don't die from it. The deadlier the disease, the less viable it is season after season.
So, technically.... I think we to be saying infection here.
I think, cancer is a disease people often don't get much immunity to, and is likely to reoccur, etc.
It’s pretty crazy that with this clearly evident community spread the cdc is still saying there’s little risk.
+1
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Giggles_FunsworthBlight on DiscourseBay Area SprawlRegistered Userregular
Convinced wife to start working from home.
I'm kinda concerned with what I'm reading about mortality rates for people with respiratory conditions. I get bronchitis pretty frequently after a cold, and my asthma's flaring up rn because of a sinus infection. I'm only in my 30s but I don't wanna roll the dice on this if it's laying young folks out without any complicating factors. Also I figure if there's one place in the US where the medical system's going to become rapidly overwhelmed it's Florida.
+5
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OrcaAlso known as EspressosaurusWrexRegistered Userregular
It’s pretty crazy that with this clearly evident community spread the cdc is still saying there’s little risk.
It's still saying there's little risk? It's nationwide at this point, and I'm guessing the only reason the remaining states haven't reported cases is due to lack of testing capacity.
I'm so fucked. Between my brother and his gf and kid being at a place that had it, and my in laws who just got back from Vegas and 2 concerts there where the mgm is taking precautions. I assume I'm fucked. And I have lung issues. More worried about my mom who has lung issues.
If my house hold catches it, I totally blame this administration and our media
Me through reading this thread has been the only one taking it seriously
Posts
(If so) it's like the surf. If one wave doesn't get you, the next will, or the next...
I don't disagree with any of this, I don't think. I'm just pessimistic of our (the US's) capability of reacting in time to really be effective, and optimistic that this won't be some insane virus that defies the pattern that almost all other viruses adhere to, in terms of population epidemiology.
Due to Germany federalistic nature, the national health Minister can only recommend.
Rb Leipzig vs the Tottenham Hotspurs thus had full spectators, in one of the oldest, most tightly packed stadiums in the country, housing 22k people.
I mean, yeah. But so far in human history, there haven't been any diseases like that.
The immune system is (as a wise person said) a hell of a thing. If you get a disease and don't die, you get mostly immune from that disease and partially immune to most of its mutations.
The reason the flu is so widespread is because it's harmless enough that it's easy to spread and most people don't die from it. The deadlier the disease, the less viable it is season after season.
The restaurant I work at in MN had less than a 5 minute wait at peak last weekend. Normally it would be an hour plus. Definitely affecting business.
That said I can't blame people. Lots of employeese living paycheck to paycheck and essentially forced to show up even if they aren't feeling well.
but they're listening to every word I say
They learned the lessons we seem to have forgotten.
South Dakota is reporting 5 cases, one death. Unclear from the article if the other four are confirmed or presumptive, but they appear to be spread across half the state and they're saying they appear to have contracted it out of state.
I wonder if this is CPAC fallout?
Live together, or die alone?
Aid in a time of need is great for soft power.
pfft, that's so TwenCen. The 21st is all about "Fuck You, Got Mine".
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marshall_Plan
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hegemony
I mean, really? You look at the death rate, the infection rate, and you think the flu will be just as bad in the end? Yeah, nope. You're a medical professional who works with the elderly who can't take care of themselves. You are pretty much a disaster waiting to happen, and you're north of 60 yourself. It's people like you who will spread the virus around and once people start keeling over, you'll just say that Covid had nothing to do with it, or that the flu would have gotten them and it's more dangerous anyways.
The course of this thing takes about anywhere from a few weeks to a month and a half to get over. It's just... ugh. And nobody knows if it's a one and done or if it can keep re-infecting you over and over.
I can has cheezburger, yes?
I mean all those things are probably made in china now. Makes it a lot easier to help others when you produce the item.
https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/10/italian-doctors-forced-choose-save-coronavirus-12377883/
People in some regions over 65 are being left with out treatment.
In some cases anyone over 60 is left to die.
The hard choices having to be made is breaking some people.
I do wonder if we need a mental-support thread, a lot of other places are doing it.
Incubation period means the virus is probably 10-14 days ahead of where we see it, but with any luck we may get an office quarantine started before any of our people get it.
If I have to watch them die to this, knowing full well they could be saved if it weren't for this country's greed and incompetence, it'll destroy me.
One of my staff attended Pax East....and stayed in the same hotel as that conference, so....
Trump will just fall back to his old play book: blame Obama, the Democrats, and China.
:bro: only if you let it. You got a whole forum of support here, and you're not the only one in this situation. We'll get through this.
Twitch: KoopahTroopah - Steam: Koopah
It’s in the wild
i don't think there's any doubt about that. philadelphia's first confirmed case had no known contact with any existing cases, so it's also out here.
I'm really hoping my office gets it together soon. At least they canceled the st. patricks day parade here finally. Doing the same dumbass thing 100 years apart during an epidemic would truly be beyond stupid.
I'm also worried about the pax east vector since I was there. 75% of the way through the 2 week period but unsure if I should be quarantining myself since it doesn't seem like there are any confirmed cases from the show proper just yet but idk.
I'm looking forward to working remotely starting next week. Not because of a mandate, just a new contract gig. I can hide from everyone successfully.
Once you realize the joy of video games at lunch, loud music through speakers, and an occasional early beer, you'll come around.
Edit:
Follow up article from different author with sources. Not 100% coronavirus caused, but it was probably the last nail in the coffin.
https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2020/03/e3-2020-has-been-canceled/
"Canceling the parade was absolutely the right thing to do. Like, younger and middle-aged people could get the virus and be okay with some flu-like symptoms. But those same people could spread it to their moms, dads, or grandparents. The virus is SUPER lethal to older folks.
So it's extremely irresponsible to be out partying in crowded streets just because of a silly parade. Just remember how much your grandma loves you before you nonchalantly walk out the door.
We've had 23 deaths here already. While the virus shouldn't cause panic, it must be respected. Washing your hands is good, but not actively going out into public for no reason is better."
There's been no extra comments after what I wrote. Hopefully that shook some reality into folks, but don't be surprised in a spike in cases in Georgia one week from now.
Legends of Runeterra: MNCdover #moc
Switch ID: MNC Dover SW-1154-3107-1051
Steam ID
Twitch Page
Read the March 10 update on
seattle flu dot org and then the NY Times March 10 article about this study. I cannot post the URLs.
Samples tested last week indicate COVID19 was present in the Seattle area "Feb. 20, seven days before public health officials had any idea the virus was in the community."
Please read those sources commenting.
So, technically.... I think we to be saying infection here.
I think, cancer is a disease people often don't get much immunity to, and is likely to reoccur, etc.
The New York Times is itself
This is uhhhh... pretty fucking wild.
Even 250 seems like way too many people in these circumstances.
Also, Mexico.
https://www.clickondetroit.com/news/2020/03/11/michigan-confirms-first-2-cases-of-coronavirus-both-in-metro-detroit/
Texas as well, at least my neck of it. Dallas, Frisco, and Tarrant County are reporting presumed cases. I’m surrounded on 3 sides. T_T
I'm kinda concerned with what I'm reading about mortality rates for people with respiratory conditions. I get bronchitis pretty frequently after a cold, and my asthma's flaring up rn because of a sinus infection. I'm only in my 30s but I don't wanna roll the dice on this if it's laying young folks out without any complicating factors. Also I figure if there's one place in the US where the medical system's going to become rapidly overwhelmed it's Florida.
It's still saying there's little risk? It's nationwide at this point, and I'm guessing the only reason the remaining states haven't reported cases is due to lack of testing capacity.
If my house hold catches it, I totally blame this administration and our media
Me through reading this thread has been the only one taking it seriously