I think if Buttigieg was 38 and had been Governor of a moderately sized state or Secretary of State or something it'd be different. He's a two term mayor of a college town with some mid-level consultant work and a short military service. He's simply not qualified
for me the main thing is that he's a transparent ladder-climber whose only belief, insofar as he has any at all, is that he should be president
I know we’re in new hampshire mode now, but if it helps to understand the conspiracy angle at all, the sde errors indicate that when gross incompetence leads to this kind of outcome it looks kind of identical to intentional fixing:
I think if Buttigieg was 38 and had been Governor of a moderately sized state or Secretary of State or something it'd be different. He's a two term mayor of a college town with some mid-level consultant work and a short military service. He's simply not qualified
for me the main thing is that he's a transparent ladder-climber whose only belief, insofar as he has any at all, is that he should be president
Coukd you explain what we're looking at a little more?
Yeah, that graph is poorly labeled and, to me, either looks like Buttigieg got less delegates than he was supposed to, or he had "negative errors" which I'm not sure what that would even entail.
The age of both warren and sanders is concerning to me. Won't stop me from voting naturally, but I hope next cycle dem candidates are younger and closer to my age group than that of my parents or grandparents.
I think looking at who the candidates surround themselves with would in some way indicate your next up and comers in addition to whoever can reasonably lay claim to motivating the most people in your age group to get involved in politics from sitting on boards, councils, mayors, state-level, congress, and senators (holy shit especially senators). AOC as your next candidate or as the VP maybe?
But really, Trump and the Senators that support him having to be given the boot seems to be the main theme of this election, so its encouraging if what I am reading here is trying to look past that.
Coukd you explain what we're looking at a little more?
Sorry, yeah: it shows what the final results should have been had the errors been corrected, color codes by county. The left side indicates SDEs that were incorrectly given, the right side shows SDEs that were incorrectly excluded.
The end result is that Buttigieg received fewer SDEs than reported by the largest degree and Bernie received more than reported by the largest degree.
Honestly if Pete had always put himself as this middle of the road candidate that doesn't have a problem with taking billionaire money I wouldn't have as much of a problem with him. I'd still disagree with him and he'd still be towards the bottom of my preference list for this primary, but I'd pretty much feel the same way about him as I would all the other candidates who fit that description.
Him starting the campaign talking about how we should push all this progressive policy cause the GOP is gonna call us socialist anyways and then turning around and being all "but think of the rich people" and backtracking so fast you would think it's an Olympic event really soured me on him. Now I can't help but get this "talking out of both sides of your mouth" feeling from him and I don't know what policy of his he actually believes in and what he just thinks is going to get him elected.
Coukd you explain what we're looking at a little more?
Sorry, yeah: it shows what the final results should have been had the errors been corrected, color codes by county. The left side indicates SDEs that were incorrectly given, the right side shows SDEs that were incorrectly excluded.
The end result is that Buttigieg received fewer SDEs than reported by the largest degree and Bernie received more than reported by the largest degree.
If you take out Polk (I think? Whichever the big purple blotch is), which was a whole one SDE, then the errors are pretty much even. The largest here is still a really, really small number, and almost the whole deviation looks to be based on one caucus site.
unions not having to give away the farm for decent health care or save money to cover health during a strike seems like a nice upside to m4a to me but okay
I can see why some unions would be against better retirement and health care for everyone.
"If all jobs had good healthcare, paid well, treated their workers humanely and had reasonable retirement, what would the union be good for?"
I can see how they would view everyone getting union level of benefits as the dagger that brings down a lot of unions.
They also do not believe the government will be able to dictate commensurate increases in pay to counteract the increased taxes they will have to pay.
World ending crisii that you'd rather have than Trump getting reelected.
But seriously, maybe a "what is your most important issue" poll?
I'd say a "who do you think is going to win the nomination poll" to contrast with the preference poll, but I think I know how that one will play out now.
unions not having to give away the farm for decent health care or save money to cover health during a strike seems like a nice upside to m4a to me but okay
I can see why some unions would be against better retirement and health care for everyone.
"If all jobs had good healthcare, paid well, treated their workers humanely and had reasonable retirement, what would the union be good for?"
I can see how they would view everyone getting union level of benefits as the dagger that brings down a lot of unions.
They also do not believe the government will be able to dictate commensurate increases in pay to counteract the increased taxes they will have to pay.
Isn't... isn't that something a union could do?
Maybe. Or maybe not. Unions don't always get everything they want from a deal.
It's basically an expression of exactly what we see in polling about health care all over the place. People are terrified of losing the healthcare they have and are skeptical enough of the government's ability to deliver an alternative that they don't trust being stuck with only that option.
That's not indicative of intentional fixing, it's just zooming in far enough that the differences start to look big.
It's not intentional fixing, but it is a signifcant error when pete beat bernie by 2 SDE
And if not for the hinky gamesmenship and weird interpretation of the rules that the IDP did regarding the satellites, Sanders would have been down by around 10 more.
The lesson here should be that caucuses are stupid, not blowing up the X axis so that tiny differences look big to get people to go around saying that it was intentionally fixed.
I know we’re in new hampshire mode now, but if it helps to understand the conspiracy angle at all, the sde errors indicate that when gross incompetence leads to this kind of outcome it looks kind of identical to intentional fixing:
1. I am completely unsurprised that, in a race with several candidates, one of them ended up benefitting a lot more from errors, and one ended up being hurt a lot more. This is far from statistically unusual.
2. Most of that excess comes from Polk County - so without that single set of fuckups, the data is even less extraordinary.
I skipped most of the last 800 posts, so apologies if it's been mentioned. Just heard on our local NPR station that the Kansas Democratic party is doing away with caucuses after the Iowa CF and doing a ranked choice primary instead. Yay!
Thank god, I hated standing around for 2 hours last election.
And that was after waiting an hour and a half in line.
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FencingsaxIt is difficult to get a man to understand, when his salary depends upon his not understandingGNU Terry PratchettRegistered Userregular
This may come as a shock but gay and trans aren't synonymous.
Alana Cleverley is a 29-year-old transgender woman who lives in Montpelier, Vermont’s capital. A few weeks ago, she got a tattoo of Sanders inked on her ankle, in part because of the work Sanders has done for the LGBT community.
“His actions show that he feels that everybody should be treated as equals,” said Cleverley. “Everybody should have equal rights regardless of their situation and regardless of their gender. He has fought for all of that and made it way easier for everybody in the community. Not just for trans people, but for everybody.”
According to Cleverley, Sanders changed attitudes and helped shape Vermont into a more accepting state. She said she feels safer in Vermont than anywhere else.
“I can easily go anywhere designed for females, even though I was not born a female,” said Cleverley. “The fact that we are such a progressive state that allows for that has made my life so much easier.”
Alana seems to think Sanders is an ally at least so I dunno my friend.
And another person you left out disagrees. And you might note I was looking for Sander's position. Not other people's opinion of him.
Ah yes, the one person who said "yeah he's good, but why hasn't he talked louder about it" means "they're not a good ally".
This is exactly what I was talking about.
"I want to know you're concerned that we are being fucking murdered" is not exactly "you're not loud enough".
Neither of the remaining Democratic candidates have spoken to reforming policy that will help secure health care and public accommodations for trans people,” she said. “I’m still waiting to hear acknowledgement that the numbers of [killed] trans women of color are even alarming to these people.”
And even then the main thrust of the complaint is health care.
Well, that article is from 2017. Since then, the candidates have been clear to include transgender folks in their health plans, so that problem has been accounted for.
The problem is that the transgender community has more needs and concerns than just health care. The question at the debate was about combating violence against transgender individuals - something that improving access to health care will only impact marginally, so why bring it up? Why not, as you pointed out, bring up the work he did as mayor to protect transgender individuals in his community, and how he would apply that to the Presidency?
In a fundamental way, he didn't actually answer the question put before him, and that comes back to that hyperfocus on class. Someone pointed out that marginalized groups are getting screwed under unfettered capitalism, and while that's true - what assurance do they have that any other system will be better for them? After all, socialist societies aren't free of discrimination either.
I honestly don't understand how you can pontificate about Bernie Sanders' fundamental problems without bothering to check up on his actual platform. He actually listened, like you wanted him to! You can't just accuse him of a hyperfocus on class as if it is 2016 or whatever. If you think the transgender community has more needs and concerns his policy ignores, point them out!
This "Sanders only class, no marginalized groups" talk needs to fucking stop.
Yes yes we disagree with you and therefor should shit down and shut up, I get it.
No what I'm saying is that this:
Pass the Equality Act, the Every Child Deserves a Family Act and other bills to prohibit discrimination against LGBTQ+ people.
Ensure LGBTQ+ people have comprehensive health care without discrimination from providers. Bernie Sanders’ Medicare for All would not only confront the massive health disparities faced by the LGBTQ+ community, it would also cover gender affirming surgeries, increase access to PrEP, remove barriers to mental health care and bolster suicide prevention efforts. Bernie’s plan clearly states that LGBTQ+ people cannot be discriminated against by providers or denied health benefits.
Protect the rights of LGBTQ+ people around the world by ensuring that written into the core text of all global trade agreements, are strong and binding human rights standards and strengthening the Special Envoy for LGBTQ+ Rights within the Dept. of the State.
Advance policies to ensure students can attend school without fear of bullying, harassment, discrimination, and violence, and work to substantially reduce suicides by enforcing Title IX and passing the Safe Schools Improvement Act and the Student Non-Discrimination Act into law to protect the rights of LGBTQ+ students.
Support police departments that adopt policies to ensure fairer interactions with transgender people, especially transgender women of color who are often targeted by police unfairly, and by instituting training programs to promote compliance with fair policies.
Ensuring Fair Housing for All free from discrimination by strengthening and expanding the Fair Housing Act, increasing enforcement, and creating an independent National Fair Housing Agency. And Bernie will invest nearly $32 billion over the next five years to end homelessness in America. He will provide $500 million in funding to states and localities to provide outreach to the homeless to help connect them to case management and social services to ensure nobody is left behind.
End discrimination against LGBTQ+ people by creditors and banks so that people will not be unfairly denied mortgages, credit cards, or student loans.
Strongly oppose any legislation that purports to “protect” religious liberty at the expense of others’ rights.
Repeal the Trump Administration’s bigoted ban on transgender people from serving in the U.S. military.
Make it easier for LGBTQ+ workers to form a union.
Ensure the federal recognition of non-binary identities, specifically the inclusion of a third-gender category on government-issued documents.
Investigate every murder of trans individuals as a federal hate crime.
seems like a pretty comprehensive lgbtq+ agenda and it is nonsense to complain that Sanders only cares about class or has no -non-health care policies targeted at trans people.
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another thing to think of for the minimum age thing is that when the framers were writing the rules, you were mostly getting married by 18/20, having kids, and a career/appretinceship and should have been well established in your own household by the time you were 35.
35 years old now, on average, has it much harder than they did even in the 50s. Not saying that 35 year olds can't be mature enough for it, but they're certainly not going to 100% be fully integrated into hellscape rather than just getting by.
MSNBC this afternoon was running a panel talking about how actually we all want to be billionaires and its bad to talk about class struggle and CNN ran an "investigative report" on people being mean to Buttigieg on the internet.
MSNBC this afternoon was running a panel talking about how actually we all want to be billionaires and its bad to talk about class struggle and CNN ran an "investigative report" on people being mean to Buttigieg on the internet.
The people being mean to Buttigieg bit was hilarious. One of the tweets had 22 likes before they showed it.
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for me the main thing is that he's a transparent ladder-climber whose only belief, insofar as he has any at all, is that he should be president
Vote for me!
I bet you are in ideological alignment with yourself as well
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The Election of 1800 2020
Yeah, that graph is poorly labeled and, to me, either looks like Buttigieg got less delegates than he was supposed to, or he had "negative errors" which I'm not sure what that would even entail.
I think looking at who the candidates surround themselves with would in some way indicate your next up and comers in addition to whoever can reasonably lay claim to motivating the most people in your age group to get involved in politics from sitting on boards, councils, mayors, state-level, congress, and senators (holy shit especially senators). AOC as your next candidate or as the VP maybe?
But really, Trump and the Senators that support him having to be given the boot seems to be the main theme of this election, so its encouraging if what I am reading here is trying to look past that.
Sorry, yeah: it shows what the final results should have been had the errors been corrected, color codes by county. The left side indicates SDEs that were incorrectly given, the right side shows SDEs that were incorrectly excluded.
The end result is that Buttigieg received fewer SDEs than reported by the largest degree and Bernie received more than reported by the largest degree.
Him starting the campaign talking about how we should push all this progressive policy cause the GOP is gonna call us socialist anyways and then turning around and being all "but think of the rich people" and backtracking so fast you would think it's an Olympic event really soured me on him. Now I can't help but get this "talking out of both sides of your mouth" feeling from him and I don't know what policy of his he actually believes in and what he just thinks is going to get him elected.
If you take out Polk (I think? Whichever the big purple blotch is), which was a whole one SDE, then the errors are pretty much even. The largest here is still a really, really small number, and almost the whole deviation looks to be based on one caucus site.
That's not indicative of intentional fixing, it's just zooming in far enough that the differences start to look big.
Isn't... isn't that something a union could do?
Second choice candidate
World ending crisii that you'd rather have than Trump getting reelected.
But seriously, maybe a "what is your most important issue" poll?
I'd say a "who do you think is going to win the nomination poll" to contrast with the preference poll, but I think I know how that one will play out now.
It's not intentional fixing, but it is a signifcant error when pete beat bernie by 2 SDE
This would probably look a lot like the poll now just with Bernie with the bigger bar- oh....
Only poll question that matters anymore is the one about the meteor, IMO.
Maybe. Or maybe not. Unions don't always get everything they want from a deal.
It's basically an expression of exactly what we see in polling about health care all over the place. People are terrified of losing the healthcare they have and are skeptical enough of the government's ability to deliver an alternative that they don't trust being stuck with only that option.
Best Nom/VP pairs (would take work making a serious list)
Which candidate will savage mayor Pete the worst in tonight’s debate?
I think all the candidates would die if they get shot in the head, not sure how age factors in
And if not for the hinky gamesmenship and weird interpretation of the rules that the IDP did regarding the satellites, Sanders would have been down by around 10 more.
The lesson here should be that caucuses are stupid, not blowing up the X axis so that tiny differences look big to get people to go around saying that it was intentionally fixed.
JFK knew how to fake being healthy.
1. I am completely unsurprised that, in a race with several candidates, one of them ended up benefitting a lot more from errors, and one ended up being hurt a lot more. This is far from statistically unusual.
2. Most of that excess comes from Polk County - so without that single set of fuckups, the data is even less extraordinary.
And that was after waiting an hour and a half in line.
I meant his health problems while he was President.
No what I'm saying is that this:
seems like a pretty comprehensive lgbtq+ agenda and it is nonsense to complain that Sanders only cares about class or has no -non-health care policies targeted at trans people.
Warren Castro
Sanders Abrams
Biden Harris
Buttigieg Abrams
35 years old now, on average, has it much harder than they did even in the 50s. Not saying that 35 year olds can't be mature enough for it, but they're certainly not going to 100% be fully integrated into hellscape rather than just getting by.
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The people being mean to Buttigieg bit was hilarious. One of the tweets had 22 likes before they showed it.