Updates on [Coronavirus] Thread

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  • Gabriel_PittGabriel_Pitt (effective against the Irish) Registered User regular
    Approved, not enacted.

    dispatch.o
  • nexuscrawlernexuscrawler Registered User regular
    NY's hospitals is definitely getting overrun.

    I think the pictures of doctors and nurses wearing garbage bags as protective gear was a pretty good indicator

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  • Phoenix-DPhoenix-D Registered User regular
    As a bonus being tubed
    dispatch.o wrote: »
    RickRude wrote: »
    ny is now sharing ventilators . I thought this was a worst case scenario measure.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/26/health/splitting-ventilators-coronavirus/index.html

    My opinion is this is a bad idea. Ventilation isn't a simple thing and I am not a doctor.

    Edit: Article outlines reasons from an anesthesiologist.

    It's unethical in my opinion to treat two people at a lower standard because you're determined to "do something" if that something generates an additional harm.

    Everyone is determined to do everything within their power without anyone calling them out on it because it's scary and feels yucky to admit there's nothing we can do.

    Edit2: article implies it's approved, not necessarily happening.

    If it can be done, and done safely, it's better than the alternative. Big ifs though.

  • spool32spool32 Contrary Library Registered User regular
    So, the Charlotte Observer is writing that NC is going to stop using testing as their main vector for tracking the spread of COVID - because tests are taking too long to get back. They're going to rely on an epidemiological method similar to how they track the flu and restrict testing to only those absolutely necessary.

    This seems like a crazy idea, and one that's sure to depress numbers here.

    maraji
  • dispatch.odispatch.o Registered User regular
    It's a bit like splitting a treatment of antibiotics among multiple patients because you don't have enough. You're reducing the odds one survives significantly to improve the odds of another by an unknown quantity.

    It was developed back in 2006(?) If I recall as a theoretical using dummy test lungs as a bridge therapy during a triage event where more ventilators would be available within hours.

    These people are on ventilation for weeks and there are no additional ventilators arriving anytime soon. Triage will be necessary and we're all going to be really unhappy about it - especially the population of people who firmly believe that we have the best most expensive fix everything healthcare in the world.

    As I said before, they're already showing up at hospital entrances and making demands and assaulting people. Someone will bring a gun during this thing. They've already been at my hospital threatening people with knives and cornering smaller staff in the garage and elevators.

    OrcaGiggles_FunsworthRaijuElldren
  • jungleroomxjungleroomx 100% BEEF MEAT Registered User regular
    edited March 26
  • CouscousCouscous Registered User regular
    There is already a good chance the death and infection numbers are significantly under reported even accounting for testing issues.

    https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/nidhiprakash/coronavirus-update-dead-covid19-doctors-hospitals
    Doctors and nurses working in several hospitals around the country, who spoke with BuzzFeed News on the condition of not being named out of fear of repercussions, said that the official counts of COVID-19 related deaths are not comprehensive for three main reasons: a lack of tests and protective equipment means not everyone who contracted or dies of COVID-19 is diagnosed; overwhelmed hospitals may be running behind on reporting the numbers to state and county authorities; and some hospitals reporting their totals on a daily basis say they’re not being reflected promptly in county and state reports.

    This doesn’t necessarily mean that authorities are underestimating how deadly the disease is. States across the US have implemented stay-at-home orders in part because there are an unknown number of people who have COVID-19, including some who may never even have symptoms or get mildly sick and recover but are still capable of spreading the virus.

    What it does mean is that we don’t have a fully accurate picture of how widespread COVID-19 deaths are, or where they’re happening at the highest rates. While staff at hospitals prioritize treating patients and saving lives — testing doesn’t usually change the course of treatment for COVID-19 — the lack of reliable numbers becomes a real problem when it comes to understanding the true scope of the crisis, and where resources are most urgently needed, according to doctors and disaster response experts.
    Some medical professionals said that it isn’t just a lack of testing that’s leading to a probable under-counting of people who contracted COVID-19 and the deaths caused by COVID-19. They said there’s also a lag in county and state records reflecting the positive COVID-19 test results and deaths they’re seeing first hand. It’s not clear why that’s the case.

    “We have confirmed at least 5 cases in our hospital, but official state reporting only lists one case in our entire county,” said one department head at a small hospital in Mississippi, referring to patients who had tested positive for COVID-19 but were not reflected in county numbers.
    Robert Jensen, CEO of Kenyon International, a private company that specializes in disaster response where there’s a significant death count, said that it’s not surprising that the official numbers have not caught up to what medical professionals are seeing on the front lines.

    “Right now, everyone is just doing it ad hoc. I don't think the documents have even caught up because I think those things take weeks, and I don’t think they’ll catch up for some time,” he said.

    MayabirdBandableLabel
  • CambiataCambiata Commander Shepard The likes of which even GAWD has never seenRegistered User regular
    edited March 26
    dispatch.o wrote: »
    It's a bit like splitting a treatment of antibiotics among multiple patients because you don't have enough. You're reducing the odds one survives significantly to improve the odds of another by an unknown quantity.

    It was developed back in 2006(?) If I recall as a theoretical using dummy test lungs as a bridge therapy during a triage event where more ventilators would be available within hours.

    These people are on ventilation for weeks and there are no additional ventilators arriving anytime soon. Triage will be necessary and we're all going to be really unhappy about it - especially the population of people who firmly believe that we have the best most expensive fix everything healthcare in the world.

    As I said before, they're already showing up at hospital entrances and making demands and assaulting people. Someone will bring a gun during this thing. They've already been at my hospital threatening people with knives and cornering smaller staff in the garage and elevators.

    One ventilator for two patients has actually been used, successfully, on human patients (once, anyway). At least according to that nurse who explained the technique.

    I don't think the comparison to antibiotics as a good analogy, because it's well known that if you don't take enough antibiotic, it doesn't kill the disease it just makes it antibiotic-resistant. Ventilator's just give you oxygen. I can see sharing a ventilator doing secondary damage to one of the patients, but it won't kill someone to not have the ventilator settings perfect for both patients, right?

    Cambiata on
    HappylilElf
  • dispatch.odispatch.o Registered User regular
    edited March 26
    What Tynnan said. I apologise.

    dispatch.o on
  • CouscousCouscous Registered User regular
    The answer to "it won't kill someone to" in medicine is usually "oh, it absolutely can."

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  • ChiselphaneChiselphane Registered User regular
    RickRude wrote: »
    dispatch.o wrote: »
    RickRude wrote: »
    ny is now sharing ventilators . I thought this was a worst case scenario measure.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/26/health/splitting-ventilators-coronavirus/index.html

    My opinion is this is a bad idea. Ventilation isn't a simple thing and I am not a doctor.

    Edit: Article outlines reasons from an anesthesiologist.

    It's unethical in my opinion to treat two people at a lower standard because you're determined to "do something" if that something generates an additional harm.

    Everyone is determined to do everything within their power without anyone calling them out on it because it's scary and feels yucky to admit there's nothing we can do.

    I thought this was supposed to be a last resort measure. Not implemented unless shit hit the fan and were overloaded. Does this mean shit hit the fan already?

    I've mentioned before but I do IT work for a messaging service and the NYC public hospital system is our biggest customer. I am directly involved in COVID messaging and while I can't give any details further than this (and technically I shouldn't be talking about it at all):

    The shit has already hit the fan in New York City.

    MvrckRaijuThegreatcow
  • TryCatcherTryCatcher Registered User regular
    The State of Emergency on Peru got officially extended until April 12. So that's something.

  • TynnanTynnan seldom correct, never unsure Registered User regular
    edited March 26
    On further consideration, this post belonged in the General thread. Moved it there.

    Tynnan on
    Commander Zoomdispatch.o
  • JedocJedoc Take a look. It's in a book. It was always in a book, you fool.Registered User regular
    edited March 26
    Trump has released a letter to state governors announcing guidelines to start reopening more businesses by April 12.

    Given his close and competent guidance thus far, I'm sure they'll all get right on that.

    Jedoc on
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  • HevachHevach Registered User regular
    edited March 26
    RickRude wrote: »
    dispatch.o wrote: »
    RickRude wrote: »
    ny is now sharing ventilators . I thought this was a worst case scenario measure.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/26/health/splitting-ventilators-coronavirus/index.html

    My opinion is this is a bad idea. Ventilation isn't a simple thing and I am not a doctor.

    Edit: Article outlines reasons from an anesthesiologist.

    It's unethical in my opinion to treat two people at a lower standard because you're determined to "do something" if that something generates an additional harm.

    Everyone is determined to do everything within their power without anyone calling them out on it because it's scary and feels yucky to admit there's nothing we can do.

    I thought this was supposed to be a last resort measure. Not implemented unless shit hit the fan and were overloaded. Does this mean shit hit the fan already?

    It has in some places and a lot of places it's dangling off the cosmic butthole inches from the fan. Plenty more places are sitting on fans eating Taco Bell. I don't know how much farther I should take this metaphor, but NOWHERE is as bad as it COULD (and likely WILL) get.

    This is a lot like those 3d printed valves, or the instructions on assembling makeshift ventilators out of off-the-shelf parts you can get at the hardware store, or throwing disposable masks in the oven to sterilize them, or doing an emergency trepanation in the field with a power drill.

    That's the kind of disaster hospitals are preparing for. Automatic DNR for COVID patients and straight-to-comfort-care orders for anyone over 60 and vents cobbled together out of bicycle pumps.

    Hevach on
  • Knight_Knight_ Dead Dead Dead Registered User regular
    Jedoc wrote: »
    Trump has released a letter to state governors announcing guidelines to start reopening more businesses by April 12.

    Given his close and competent guidance thus far, I'm sure they'll all get right on that.

    we won't even be at the peak by then.

    this is a literally insane thing to send to people.

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  • Phoenix-DPhoenix-D Registered User regular
    Once again with the reliance on the magical test kits he never...actually..orders..

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  • notyanotya Registered User regular
    Jedoc wrote: »
    Trump has released a letter to state governors announcing guidelines to start reopening more businesses by April 12.

    Given his close and competent guidance thus far, I'm sure they'll all get right on that.

    If it weren't Trump saying it, I'd be in full agreement with that letter. More testing. More following up with who positive people come into contact (I hope that's what surveillance means). Different risk areas based on data taking necessary measures.

    God knows what'll really happen though.

    Commander Zoom
  • evilmrhenryevilmrhenry Registered User regular
    Cambiata wrote: »
    dispatch.o wrote: »
    It's a bit like splitting a treatment of antibiotics among multiple patients because you don't have enough. You're reducing the odds one survives significantly to improve the odds of another by an unknown quantity.

    It was developed back in 2006(?) If I recall as a theoretical using dummy test lungs as a bridge therapy during a triage event where more ventilators would be available within hours.

    These people are on ventilation for weeks and there are no additional ventilators arriving anytime soon. Triage will be necessary and we're all going to be really unhappy about it - especially the population of people who firmly believe that we have the best most expensive fix everything healthcare in the world.

    As I said before, they're already showing up at hospital entrances and making demands and assaulting people. Someone will bring a gun during this thing. They've already been at my hospital threatening people with knives and cornering smaller staff in the garage and elevators.

    One ventilator for two patients has actually been used, successfully, on human patients (once, anyway). At least according to that nurse who explained the technique.

    I don't think the comparison to antibiotics as a good analogy, because it's well known that if you don't take enough antibiotic, it doesn't kill the disease it just makes it antibiotic-resistant. Ventilator's just give you oxygen. I can see sharing a ventilator doing secondary damage to one of the patients, but it won't kill someone to not have the ventilator settings perfect for both patients, right?

    It was used following the Las Vegas shooting, where the goal was to keep patients alive while more equipment was brought in. The idea is that this is a good way to stretch resources over the course of hours, but when COVID-19 patients need to be hooked up for weeks, that's going to reduce quality of care, and COVID-19 patients that get ventilator support don't do too well in general.

    Commander ZoomtynicJansonmonikerElldren
  • FrostwoodFrostwood Registered User regular
    edited March 26
    Frostwood on
  • KetBraKetBra Dressed Ridiculously Registered User regular
    edited March 26
    Frostwood wrote: »
    https://mobile.twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1243290969790963715

    USA daily deaths eclipse every other country. 870 deaths/day.

    Those are non-daily numbers fyi

    KetBra on
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  • MayabirdMayabird Pecking at the keyboardRegistered User regular


    The US has surpassed China in the number of official cases.

    And that number will only continue going up for a long time unless testing gets stopped or significantly stymied, which is sadly a possibility in this stupid age.

    JaysonFourEmerlmaster999monikerRaijuBrodyElldren
  • SolarSolar Registered User regular
    I reckon the US will overtake Europe pretty soon, in the same way that Europe overtool China. And then we might see the same thing happen in South America and Africa afterwards.

    We've all seen what happens. If you don't take this very fucking seriously right away you get hammered by it, and you're on catch up. Europe didn't realise the seriousness until it was here and spreading fast, and/or didn't make decisions to lockdown fast enough like in the UK where the initial strategy was incorrect and that is a massive problem even though it was only in for a few days. The US has cocked up the response federally which means that it's going to be running like wildfire. Brazil will be another clusterfuck of epic proportions because Bolsonaro is dragging his feet.

    We're talking about, like, a timescale of action in hours here, even waiting just 48 or 72 hours will massively worsen the situation.

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  • ManetherenWolfManetherenWolf Registered User regular
    https://www.wsfa.com/2020/03/26/alabama-public-school-students-wont-return-classrooms-this-school-year/

    Alabama has hit 500 cases, and 2 deaths now.

    Alabama public schools will not return to classrooms for this school year.
    -Online learning and Send home packets will be utilized for students to finish the year.
    -Alabama Public Television will also be used to broadcast courses for viewing. (This is actually a REALLY good idea for general courses)

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  • Blameless ClericBlameless Cleric An angel made of sapphires each more flawlessly cut than the last Registered User regular
    My job sent out an email about maybe being closed longer than the expected April 30th. We're currently under a stay at home advisory until April 7th, but the governor has said he won't issue a SIP order. I wonder if this is going to persist through May.

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  • MayabirdMayabird Pecking at the keyboardRegistered User regular
    Oh, and speaking of the US federal response cock-up: you've probably heard about how Trump fired the pandemic response team. The DHS from 2005 to 2017 maintained an office that provided annual models of a pandemic and what the likely reactions to it would be and how to respond. Particular focus had been on damage and weaknesses to critical infrastructure, analyzing everything from broken transportation networks and overloaded hospitals. They had plans printed and ready in the event of, say, 40% of the workforce being ill or generally out of work all at once.

    Not only was the office shut down, but almost all those models and plans that were made for over a decade disappeared.
    One 2015 DHS report, based partly on data produced by NISAC, warned that America’s public and private health systems might “experience significant shortages in vaccines, antivirals, pharmaceuticals needed to treat secondary infections and complications, personal protective equipment (PPE), and medical equipment, including ventilators.”

    ...

    “I’ve heard people say it’s a black swan. It’s not a black swan,” said one of the former DHS officials. “This is the whitest of white swans. This was absolutely inevitable, and the fact is we didn’t even maintain the capacity that we had or even the records of what we had done so that information could be quickly located and turned over to people who are making the critical operations right now.”

    All those plans were inaccessible when they were needed, and what little people have been able to recover have predicted basically everything that happened and what we should've done, which is all the stuff that has been recommended and often not done. It's not just Trump but the systemic right-wing problem that Trump represents: cheap, short-sighted, and more interested in oppressing The Other than doing its job.

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  • CouscousCouscous Registered User regular
    edited March 26
    https://montgomeryadvertiser.com/amp/2922242001
    Coronavirus: Ivey says 'right now is not the time' for Alabama-wide shelter-in-place order
    “Y’all, we are not Louisiana, we are not New York State, we are not California,” she said. “Right now is not the time to order people to shelter in place.”

    21 states — including Louisiana, New York and California — have issued orders for residents to limit outside activity to exercise, trips to the grocery store and trips to the doctor. The orders aim to break the cycle of transmission of the disease. Ivey has banned nonwork meetings of 25 people or more, closed schools, and closed the state beaches while forbidding in-person dining at restaurants in the state.
    Sounds like a great way to guarantee Alabama becomes like those places

    Work meetings of 25 or more somehow don't have the problems of nonwork meetings of 25 or more

    Couscous on
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  • Captain InertiaCaptain Inertia Registered User regular
    Cambiata wrote: »

    Based likely on a con artist pumping the price of drugs he probably invested in before faking the study that Trump touted

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  • KanaKana Registered User regular
    Basically every bit of data we have from other countries about the rate that this thing spreads suggests that we're right on that cusp of exponential growth where things are going to absolutely explode in two to three weeks.

    It kind of reveals once again Trump and his sycophants' inability to think through any issue beyond trying to win the 24 or 48 hour news cycle. Even assuming best case scenarios, in two weeks things will be worse than they are now, but they don't care because it lets them act like everything's fine in the moment.

    The marginally good news at least is that shelter orders are a state thing and Trump really doesn't have much ability to actually shape policy on the ground level. He can, and will, continue to fuck up the response in terms of federal response, but we already knew that.

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  • Captain InertiaCaptain Inertia Registered User regular
    Kana wrote: »
    Basically every bit of data we have from other countries about the rate that this thing spreads suggests that we're right on that cusp of exponential growth where things are going to absolutely explode in two to three weeks.

    It kind of reveals once again Trump and his sycophants' inability to think through any issue beyond trying to win the 24 or 48 hour news cycle. Even assuming best case scenarios, in two weeks things will be worse than they are now, but they don't care because it lets them act like everything's fine in the moment.

    The marginally good news at least is that shelter orders are a state thing and Trump really doesn't have much ability to actually shape policy on the ground level. He can, and will, continue to fuck up the response in terms of federal response, but we already knew that.

    I’m not sure there’s much to learn from other countries anymore- NYC for sure and the rest of the US right behind are blazing new trails for how this thing can blow up

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  • nusunusu Registered User regular
    Washington State's efforts the past couple of weeks have been reducing positive tests (though the governor does point out that we need more test equipment to make sure that the slower rate is real):

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  • Captain InertiaCaptain Inertia Registered User regular
    Fuck I didn’t realize it was that bad in Michigan

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  • dispatch.odispatch.o Registered User regular
    There are several people in the community I belong to in healthcare on the east coast. Many in hospital systems surrounding New York City. It actually sounds like New Jersey is very close to being second in line for a thorough fucking.

    Lots of reports of full ICU units, makeshift ICU wards and offices with intubated patients. The amount of silence coming from healthcare systems is terrifying.

    Normally if you have handled a situation or have a plan you announce it to reassure the population relying on you for care. You don't violate patient confidentiality but you give an update.

    My employer isn't even filling staff in on what the fuck is going on.

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  • CalicaCalica Registered User regular
    Do we have any idea what the federal government is doing with the medical supplies it's been buying? I haven't heard a peep about it since the story broke a week ago about the feds telling states to buy their own, then outbidding them.

    Jedoc wrote: »
    The GOP cares about babies until they're born, soldiers until they're in need of care, and families until they interfere with stockholder dividends.
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  • Commander ZoomCommander Zoom Registered User regular
    edited March 26
    dispatch.o wrote: »
    There are several people in the community I belong to in healthcare on the east coast. Many in hospital systems surrounding New York City. It actually sounds like New Jersey is very close to being second in line for a thorough fucking.

    Lots of reports of full ICU units, makeshift ICU wards and offices with intubated patients. The amount of silence coming from healthcare systems is terrifying.

    Normally if you have handled a situation or have a plan you announce it to reassure the population relying on you for care. You don't violate patient confidentiality but you give an update.

    My employer isn't even filling staff in on what the fuck is going on.

    I imagine they are too busy, out of spoons (and other, more tangible items), and/or trying to figure out how to report the simple (horrifying) facts in a way that won't cause (more) general panic.

    Commander Zoom on
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  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    Cambiata wrote: »

    Based likely on a con artist pumping the price of drugs he probably invested in before faking the study that Trump touted

    I wonder if they can sell the medicine for more as a covid cure.

  • JragghenJragghen Registered User regular
    I also didn't realize that California was doing as (comparatively) well as it had been. Like, I knew that we weren't one of the problem states due to the severity of the initial shutdown (props to the bay area for going hard, fast - although they have the benefit of having a TON of people able to work from home), but that graph shows it's working.

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  • SmrtnikSmrtnik job boli zub Registered User regular
    Al_wat wrote: »
    I cant imagine anyone from Canada wanting to escape into the US. It makes zero sense.

    No, the other way around. Like in Handmaiden's Tale.

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