[Natural Disasters] redux: Fires, Hurricanes, Floods, and everything else

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  • EncEnc A Fool with Compassion The Land of Flowers (and Dragons)Registered User regular
    I’ve heard that a bunch of times before they power up in the Florida straits. Conditions aren’t great for a hurricane, but we always prepare as if it will be another Charlie or Irene

    VishNubQanamilBullheadSorceMosati
  • KrieghundKrieghund Registered User regular
    We had a run on water at work today. We're still a little light on water as it is, due to Covid still making people buy water for some reason. So far it looks like a barely Cat 1 storm at most, which means we probably won't be closed long, if at all depending when it hits.

  • BullheadBullhead Registered User regular
    Enc wrote: »
    I’ve heard that a bunch of times before they power up in the Florida straits. Conditions aren’t great for a hurricane, but we always prepare as if it will be another Charlie or Irene

    Yeah that's why ideally it goes east of the stay so we're on the back side of it. Gulf is just stupid warm right now...

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  • EncEnc A Fool with Compassion The Land of Flowers (and Dragons)Registered User regular
    NOAA has revised its forcast as "we don't know how strong it will get" as of this morning. I guess conditions are really favorable after it gets through Hispanola. If it holds together long enough to get to the north shore they are anticipating it strengthening a lot. Forcast has also narrowed to anticipating the East Coast of Florida, though that could change.

    Looks like Matthew or Irma energies now. I only just paid off the last Irma repairs in January, haha. ~sigh~

    BullheadJaysonFour
  • BullheadBullhead Registered User regular
    It's shifted east as they had been expecting. Still not hitting Hurricane, though I saw one with windspeeds of 70mph right before the landfall event on the carolinas.
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  • MayabirdMayabird Pecking at the keyboardRegistered User regular
    Hurricane now. @Edith_Bagot-Dix Heading your way, though you're probably already aware.

    Bullhead
  • VishNubVishNub Registered User regular
    Up next we have Laura and Marco

    Laura is spinning up in the Atlantic now. It will probably lose some energy as it is forecast to either hit Hispaniola and Cuba dead on, or maybe ride their northern coasts. But after that it will likely spin back up in the gulf before hitting the gulf coast as a hurricane somewhere, possibly New Orleans. In the short term, I think south Florida should keep one eye on it, then after it clears Florida we'll have to see where it lands.

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    Meanwhile, to the South, Marco will likely clip the Yucatan, then spin back up over the Gulf as well, hitting probably somewhere to the East of Laura, but on a similar timeline. Michael, which hit Rockport/Port A on the Texas Coast before flooding Houston had a similar initial track, and made landfall on almost the same day as this is forecast to. Michael gained energy much faster than expected, but I think the Gulf isn't as warm right now as it was that year. Still definitely something to keep an eye on.

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    TBD: How will these storms interact? Where will they hit? How bad will it be?

    Elvenshae
  • SorceSorce Registered User regular
    Western Louisiana looks kinda fucked at the moment.

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    Backloggery. It's totally updated again, I swear!
    furlionVishNubLucedesMillFencingsaxGiantGeek2020BullheadShadowfireSkeithKruite
  • MorganVMorganV Registered User regular
    edited August 22
    Hey, at least Laura is ACTUALLY predicted to encompass parts of Alabama.

    Trump will need to sharpie Marco though.

    MorganV on
    Ticaldfjam
  • MayabirdMayabird Pecking at the keyboardRegistered User regular
    VishNub wrote: »
    TBD: How will these storms interact? Where will they hit? How bad will it be?

    Fujiwhara effects are hard to predict, but considering this year, my assumptions are "as bad as it can possibly get, worse than you imagined and somehow dumber too."

    Some of the models I've seen trying to predict the effects don't give me any hope that I'll be wrong.

  • VishNubVishNub Registered User regular
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    1pm Monday and then 2pm wednesday. Southern LA is in for a shitty shitty week.

    GiantGeek2020PolaritieElvenshaeSorceTicaldfjam
  • furlionfurlion Riskbreaker Lea MondeRegistered User regular
    How prepared is LA for this? I mean infrastructure wise. I know Katrina was a while ago, and these are supposed to be relatively weak compared to that one, but two in a row, or possibly even at the same time for a little while, seems like a lot.

    sig.gif Gamertag: KL Retribution
    PSN:Furlion
  • A Kobold's KoboldA Kobold's Kobold He/Him MississippiRegistered User regular
    As somebody who's potentially in the path of these two storms, what's the likelihood of them strengthening dramatically as they hit the Gulf of Mexico? Apparently the waters over the Gulf are quite hot, which gives me bad flashbacks to Katrina.

    The source of this claim comes from this tweet from a Ryan Maue, a meteorologist with a checkmark on Twitter, who I found from a link in this story from the Washington Post, so it should be reliable

    Switch Friend Code: SW-3011-6091-2364
    Twitter delenda est
  • Captain InertiaCaptain Inertia Registered User regular
    So is there even enough water for these storms to successively push a huge storm surge ashore?

    Or does the second storm push the first surge further inland...

  • Phoenix-DPhoenix-D Registered User regular
    As somebody who's potentially in the path of these two storms, what's the likelihood of them strengthening dramatically as they hit the Gulf of Mexico? Apparently the waters over the Gulf are quite hot, which gives me bad flashbacks to Katrina.

    The source of this claim comes from this tweet from a Ryan Maue, a meteorologist with a checkmark on Twitter, who I found from a link in this story from the Washington Post, so it should be reliable

    Quite hot but not abnormally so, and quite a lot colder than before Katrina or any of the other big ones. Barring "hi fuck you imma park on the coast" shenanigans or other weird shit they should both be fairly weak.

  • MayabirdMayabird Pecking at the keyboardRegistered User regular
    DO NOT ASSUME THE STORMS WILL BE WEAK. Goodness sakes, be better than that.


    There has been a tendency in these last few years for storms to intensify beyond predictions once they get going. Prepare for a hurricane. If it fizzles out and is nothing, be glad all you did was waste some time. You do not want to be unprepared in the event of two back-to-back hurricanes.

    Definitely be ready for flooding. Even if both storms flop into tropical depressions before landfall or something, they're still big slugs of moisture coming your way. Again, if it doesn't pan out, good. Better to be ready just in case.

    lonelyahavaFencingsaxGiantGeek2020SorceMillElvenshaeSkeithEncDevlin_Dragonusfurlion38thDoeNitsuaBullheadTicaldfjamNobeardEinzel
  • AbsalonAbsalon Registered User regular
    edited August 23
    How horrible that the GOP's convention might be muted and distracted by an issue they insist does not exist.

    Absalon on
    We are all as God made us and frequently much worse
  • MayabirdMayabird Pecking at the keyboardRegistered User regular
    They are absolutely welcome to move their convention to a beach directly in the path of the storms while bleating "fake news." Put their money where their mouths are, set up their tents right above the high tide line.

    AbsalonGiantGeek2020JragghenPhoenix-DElvenshaeBigJoeMTNTrooperfurlionBullheadTicaldfjamJaysonFour
  • OrcaOrca Registered User regular
    Mayabird wrote: »
    They are absolutely welcome to move their convention to a beach directly in the path of the storms while bleating "fake news." Put their money where their mouths are, set up their tents right above below the high tide line.

    ElvenshaeBigJoeMJaysonFourfurlionBullhead
  • Blackhawk1313Blackhawk1313 Registered User regular
    Mayabird wrote: »
    DO NOT ASSUME THE STORMS WILL BE WEAK. Goodness sakes, be better than that.


    There has been a tendency in these last few years for storms to intensify beyond predictions once they get going. Prepare for a hurricane. If it fizzles out and is nothing, be glad all you did was waste some time. You do not want to be unprepared in the event of two back-to-back hurricanes.

    Definitely be ready for flooding. Even if both storms flop into tropical depressions before landfall or something, they're still big slugs of moisture coming your way. Again, if it doesn't pan out, good. Better to be ready just in case.

    Hi there, Michael would like to have a word on this. Ask me about how I drove home from a family outing with an expected Cat 1 on Monday, and then walked out of the house into the apocalypse from a Cat 5 on Wednesday.

    Sorce
  • Jealous DevaJealous Deva Registered User regular
    Mayabird wrote: »
    DO NOT ASSUME THE STORMS WILL BE WEAK. Goodness sakes, be better than that.


    There has been a tendency in these last few years for storms to intensify beyond predictions once they get going. Prepare for a hurricane. If it fizzles out and is nothing, be glad all you did was waste some time. You do not want to be unprepared in the event of two back-to-back hurricanes.

    Definitely be ready for flooding. Even if both storms flop into tropical depressions before landfall or something, they're still big slugs of moisture coming your way. Again, if it doesn't pan out, good. Better to be ready just in case.

    Also even if they are weak, the combined flooding and damage from two storms back to back could very well be a damage multiplier if they do hit the same area. Quantity has a quality all its own, and water won’t have time to drain or flood levels to go down very far before round 2 in the event of a double hit.

    SleepLucedesGiantGeek2020furlion
  • TomantaTomanta Registered User regular
    Mayabird wrote: »
    DO NOT ASSUME THE STORMS WILL BE WEAK. Goodness sakes, be better than that.


    There has been a tendency in these last few years for storms to intensify beyond predictions once they get going. Prepare for a hurricane. If it fizzles out and is nothing, be glad all you did was waste some time. You do not want to be unprepared in the event of two back-to-back hurricanes.

    Definitely be ready for flooding. Even if both storms flop into tropical depressions before landfall or something, they're still big slugs of moisture coming your way. Again, if it doesn't pan out, good. Better to be ready just in case.

    Also even if they are weak, the combined flooding and damage from two storms back to back could very well be a damage multiplier if they do hit the same area. Quantity has a quality all its own, and water won’t have time to drain or flood levels to go down very far before round 2 in the event of a double hit.

    Laura is tracking a little more west right now, so a double hit is less likely (subject to change). But Laura is also predicting to be stronger when it hits than yesterday.

    JragghenBullhead
  • MillMill Registered User regular
    Hurricanes tends to have wide area of effect, looking at the projected paths for these two systems, it would seem you're going to have quite a bit of overlap on impacted areas.

  • TomantaTomanta Registered User regular
    Mill wrote: »
    Hurricanes tends to have wide area of effect, looking at the projected paths for these two systems, it would seem you're going to have quite a bit of overlap on impacted areas.

    Some overlap, maybe. It really depends on where Laura ends up and how big/strong she is. Last update was anywhere from Corpus Christi to New Orleans as anywhere from Cat 1 to Cat 4. Not much certainty there.

  • TomantaTomanta Registered User regular
    Laura dodged/is dodging Cuba and the track is more defined. Looks like she will probably hit as a moderate to major Hurricane between the TX/LA border and Houston.

    VishNubBullheadMayabird
  • MayabirdMayabird Pecking at the keyboardRegistered User regular
    Tomanta wrote: »
    Laura dodged/is dodging Cuba and the track is more defined. Looks like she will probably hit as a moderate to major Hurricane between the TX/LA border and Houston.

    Models are already saying upwards of Cat 4, which would be bad enough if Marco wasn't about to pre-saturate all the ground beforehand, which Marco is already starting to do. That dose of moisture opens the possibility of a brown ocean effect, where very damp air/ground can continue to feed a hurricane after it makes landfall, making it much slower to weaken so effects can be worse further inland in places that would normally just be a bit windy and blustery.

    Bullhead
  • FencingsaxFencingsax It is difficult to get a man to understand, when his salary depends upon his not understanding GNU Terry PratchettRegistered User regular
    Has Houston improved its drainage issues from last time?

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  • TomantaTomanta Registered User regular
    Fencingsax wrote: »
    Has Houston improved its drainage issues from last time?

    Haha, no.

    Houston floods constantly. There probably have been drainage improvements, bur those are very slow projects to get started. Still, not too worried about rain from Laura, it should blow through quickly. Wind its going to be the threat here and for Houston maybe not even that (and Houston is on the "good" side), it seems to be staying closer to the TX/LA border. That area is probably fucked.

    That said, flash flooding is a problem. Imelda dumped a lot of water quickly, causing major street (and homes, in some cases) flooding. That was mostly gone a few hours later.

  • TomantaTomanta Registered User regular
    The worse scenario is happening as Laura tracks more west, putting Beaumont on the east side of the storm and under mandatory evacuation, and putting Houston and Galveston in serious danger.

    Spacecityweather.com - the best source of no hype forecasting for Houston - is making Ike comparisons. Ike left the region - spreading up into East Texas - without power for weeks.

    a5ehren
  • Fuzzy Cumulonimbus CloudFuzzy Cumulonimbus Cloud Registered User regular
    Tomanta wrote: »
    The worse scenario is happening as Laura tracks more west, putting Beaumont on the east side of the storm and under mandatory evacuation, and putting Houston and Galveston in serious danger.

    Spacecityweather.com - the best source of no hype forecasting for Houston - is making Ike comparisons. Ike left the region - spreading up into East Texas - without power for weeks.
    Ike wiped out Galveston completely and took years to recover.

    no no no no noo no no no no no
    Elvenshae
  • MillMill Registered User regular
    Can't tell if Marco will presaturate any areas that are in Laura's path. Even though it's likely going to be a depression when it makes landfall, it can still dump a shit ton of water that will contribute to a possible brown ocean effect. Honestly, that is and has been my biggest concern with two systems in the gulf at the same time on a fairly similar path. Is that one sets the stage for the other to be more damaging than it otherwise would be.

    I'm hoping it won't do what the remnants of the last system did to the Hampton Roads area at the start of the month, where a ton a people were without power. Also my area has the BS where our cable providers are running stuff off of power poles. So found out that I can be in a situation where I have power, but no internet connection for two days. Seriously, fuck ISPs.

  • MayabirdMayabird Pecking at the keyboardRegistered User regular
    Marco's remnants went west along the Louisiana coast, though I haven't been able to figure out exactly how far west the rains went, so with Laura tracking further west, it's hard to tell if it'll be a brown ocean or not.

    Even if not though, Laura's already Cat 2 and climbing. Plus

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    @Gustav I hope you're ready for rain.

  • a5ehrena5ehren AtlantaRegistered User regular
    Marco put more rain on me here in Atlanta than anywhere in Louisiana. Not that that will help much with a 15 foot storm surge into the LA swamps.

  • ViskodViskod Registered User regular
    Expected to be a Category 4 by the time it hits today.

    Artereis wrote: »
    It's not your fault, Viskod. 1 out of every 10 people just happens to be a monster.
    Elvenshae
  • TomantaTomanta Registered User regular
    Viskod wrote: »
    Expected to be a Category 4 by the time it hits today.

    Thankfully it is missing Houston, but it's not good for anyone on the TX/LA border.

    VishNubPolaritieBullhead
  • CronoColaCronoCola Registered User regular
    Sounds like NWS is a bit concerned:


    NWS wrote:
    Unsurvivable storm surge with large, destructive waves will cause catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, TX, to Intracoastal City, LA. Surge could penetrate up to 30 miles inland.

    If you need to evacuate, do so NOW. Surge will begin today, well ahead of the strongest winds

    Bullhead
  • VishNubVishNub Registered User regular
    20 foot surge. Yikes.

    MorganVGiantGeek2020Elvenshaespool32MillEncHavelock2.0NobeardSkeithSleepzagdrobShadowfireAbsoluteZeroboogedybooSorceNitsua
  • a5ehrena5ehren AtlantaRegistered User regular
    edited August 26
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/151358.shtml?inundation#contents

    This is a good graphic to show how far inland the surge might go.

    Anyone in SW LA within about 30 miles of the coast should be evacuating inland now.

    a5ehren on
    JaysonFourKruiteBullheadSleepStabbity Style
  • ViskodViskod Registered User regular
    I heard on the news that people have been advised that if for whatever goddamn reason you don't listen, and don't evacuate, don't bother calling 911 because no one is coming for you.

    Artereis wrote: »
    It's not your fault, Viskod. 1 out of every 10 people just happens to be a monster.
    Smrtnik
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