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[Natural Disasters] redux: Fires, Hurricanes, Floods, and everything else

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    GilgaronGilgaron Registered User regular
    @Shadowfire so... UPS will deliver packages to the Upside Down?

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    FencingsaxFencingsax It is difficult to get a man to understand, when his salary depends upon his not understanding GNU Terry PratchettRegistered User regular
    Very Orange in the East Bay area.

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    dispatch.odispatch.o Registered User regular
    edited September 2020
    Orange skies and smoke and ash rolling in to suburb of Portland, OR right now. A few fires west of us at Hagg lake.

    Mom sent me pictures of ash coating all the cars and houses in Chico, CA. She went to the gas station and there's apparently a line of 30-40 cars and RV's. She's hoping there's enough gas to fill the vehicles up because people are being stupid and filling a bunch of jerry cans and all their recreational vehicles just in case.

    She's trying to fill her car up in case of evacuation or if they cut off the power, so she can sleep in it and utilize the fact it has an air filter and air conditioning. She still relies on home oxygen when she lays flat due to previous health issues.

    Also, keep in mind in the 30 years I lived in California, this sort of thing happened exactly once in Chico and now it's the third time in two years.

    dispatch.o on
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    shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    Orca wrote: »
    Remember that conversation about buyouts? Yeah, Paradise should probably be on that list...

    Just from the outside this feels like it's becoming a yearly thing to the point where, like, is California going to be uninhabitably on-fire every summer from now on?

    Is there something that can be done?

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    Fartacus_the_MightyFartacus_the_Mighty Brought to you by the letter A.Registered User regular
    [fills in bubble for "Actually Transported to Hell" on his 2020 bingo card]

    I'm in San Francisco right now, and the ambience outside is fucking unreal. From a local news site:
    Va7Hs8o.jpg

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    HevachHevach Registered User regular
    edited September 2020
    shryke wrote: »
    Orca wrote: »
    Remember that conversation about buyouts? Yeah, Paradise should probably be on that list...

    Just from the outside this feels like it's becoming a yearly thing to the point where, like, is California going to be uninhabitably on-fire every summer from now on?

    Is there something that can be done?

    There's a lot behind it, but one of the terminal factors is aquifer collapse.

    California produces a LOT of almonds and other crops that aren't adapted to the land, and require an unconscionable amount of water. The water table is actually drained enough that the clay soil it fills has collapsed into a configuration that can't hold water anymore. This can't be reversed short of stripping the soil down to the healthy water table and rebuilding the land, a scale of geoengineering that's just not feasible.

    The land has settled several meters as a result, but the real problem is that rain water can't absorb down into the water table anymore, effectively transforming it into a weird "wet desert" where even with plenty of rainfall the land will remain arid. If the droughts ever end by the technical definition, they'll never end.

    Hevach on
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    dispatch.odispatch.o Registered User regular
    edited September 2020
    Hevach wrote: »
    shryke wrote: »
    Orca wrote: »
    Remember that conversation about buyouts? Yeah, Paradise should probably be on that list...

    Just from the outside this feels like it's becoming a yearly thing to the point where, like, is California going to be uninhabitably on-fire every summer from now on?

    Is there something that can be done?

    There's a lot behind it, but one of the terminal factors is aquifer collapse.

    California produces a LOT of almonds and other crops that aren't adapted to the land, and require an unconscionable amount of water. The water table is actually drained enough that the clay soil it fills has collapsed into a configuration that can't hold water anymore. This can't be reversed short of stripping the soil down to the healthy water table and rebuilding the land, a scale of geoengineering that's just not feasible.

    The land has settled several meters as a result, but the real problem is that rain water can't absorb down into the water table anymore, effectively transforming it into a weird "wet desert" where even with plenty of rainfall the land will remain arid. If the droughts ever end by the technical definition, they'll never end.

    They divert water from further and further away as well. Every year they pretend that things are fine because snowmelt fills the rivers for a brief period before running to the ocean and never really replenishing the surface reservoirs.

    They still flood the rice fields and grow almonds every year though because the water use laws grandfather in a bunch of flat rate farms that should be paying per gallon but don't.

    There are yearly floods followed immediately by reinstatement of a droughts.

    dispatch.o on
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    So It GoesSo It Goes We keep moving...Registered User regular
    edited September 2020
    Good article summing things up recently https://www.npr.org/2020/09/09/911058507/i-heard-popping-and-houses-blowing-up-unprecedented-wildfires-rip-through-oregon

    towns are being erased in Oregon

    https://apnews.com/9002178ddd7d935c75f6ff666d044d16
    Fires in 2017 and 2018 crested the top of the Cascade Mountains — the long spine that divides dry eastern Oregon from the lush western part of the state — but never before spread into the valleys below, said Doug Grafe, chief of Fire Protection at the Oregon Department of Forestry.

    “We do not have a context for this amount of fire on the landscape,” he said. “Seeing them run down the canyons the way they have — carrying tens of miles in one period of an afternoon and not slowing down in the evening – (there is) absolutely no context for that in this environment.”

    So It Goes on
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    dispatch.odispatch.o Registered User regular
    We've started cancelling surgical procedures at work because some of the patients need to drive in from outskirt towns and with evacuation orders and road closures that would be very unsafe.

    Healthcare is having problems.

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    PhotosaurusPhotosaurus Bay Area, CARegistered User regular
    Bit of info on the current conditions in CA from the NWS, via the Mercury News.
    In a phenomenon never before seen at such a scale, wildfires are changing the weather of an entire region, meteorologists said. And forecasters don’t know when it will end.

    “Fires create their own weather,” National Weather Service meteorologist Roger Gass explained, but usually only on a small scale, in areas close to the flames.

    The smoke that upended the Bay Area on Wednesday, though, was coming from hundreds of miles away. Most of it, Gass said, was likely from the August Complex Fire in the Mendocino National Forest and the Bear Fire in the western Sierra. Smoke from other fires throughout California, Oregon and Washington was also mixed into the massive layer of haze.

    “We’re having such a large scope of dense smoke across the Bay Area and the West Coast in general, that it’s actually impacting our weather conditions,” Gass said. “We’re kind of in uncharted territory right now.”

    ...

    In addition to the darkness, the forecasters said temperatures would likely remain cooler than forecast as the smoke blocks the sunlight.

    “The smoke is more or less in control of the forecast,” said another National Weather Service meteorologist, Drew Peterson. “By that, I mean that the forecast models are probably going to be wrong. It’s probably going to be much cooler than we’re forecasting. How much cooler, we don’t know.”

    Temperatures in the inland East Bay and in the Almaden Valley area of San Jose were expected to top out in the upper 80s, and morning temperatures unofficially were in the low 60s early Wednesday, Peterson said. On the coast, in San Francisco and Monterey, the mercury is not expected to rise past 69 degrees.

    The few times I stepped outside with the dogs today, it was noticeably cool. Will be curious to see how this plays out over the weekend, but if they can't get the bigger fires contained (and it doesn't seem they have a way to contain the Creek fire at all at the moment) I don't see how it gets better anytime soon.

    "If complete and utter chaos was lightning, then he'd be the sort to stand on a hilltop in a thunderstorm wearing wet copper armour and shouting 'All gods are bastards'."
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    DiplominatorDiplominator Hardcore Porg Registered User regular
    Up in Redding I kinda got used to California essentially being Mordor one summer out of three. We even had the sky changing colors or just pretending to be night. It...kinda sounds a lot like what was being described here.

    So, I sorta wonder if this is particularly intense or if it's just affecting more/unusual parts of the state. Certainly I don't recall the coastal areas having it quite so bad. It's real bad either way but now I'm curious.

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    So It GoesSo It Goes We keep moving...Registered User regular
    This is historic levels of burning and destruction.

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    ShivahnShivahn Unaware of her barrel shifter privilege Western coastal temptressRegistered User, Moderator mod
    So It Goes wrote: »
    This is historic levels of burning and destruction.

    Growing up near SF, I don't remember smoke being a thing from when I was born until I left in like 2012 or whatever it was. Now it's something like yearly, and this is a particularly bad one.

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    Phoenix-DPhoenix-D Registered User regular
    In "fuck you 2020"

    https://mobile.twitter.com/UrsulaV/status/1303821147738341392
    (Writer talking about family shenigans)

    This kind of thing worries me. Some communities are pretty close to being surrounded by flame aren't they?

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    PellaeonPellaeon Registered User regular
    Any one of these fires would be a challenge, trying to battle them all at once is just impossible. Like 200 firefighters available for a fire that should needs 1500, times all the fires state/coastwide.

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    JragghenJragghen Registered User regular
    Up in Redding I kinda got used to California essentially being Mordor one summer out of three. We even had the sky changing colors or just pretending to be night. It...kinda sounds a lot like what was being described here.

    So, I sorta wonder if this is particularly intense or if it's just affecting more/unusual parts of the state. Certainly I don't recall the coastal areas having it quite so bad. It's real bad either way but now I'm curious.

    3 of the 4 largest fires in state history are burning right now.

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    HenroidHenroid Mexican kicked from Immigration Thread Centrism is Racism :3Registered User regular
    I hate so much that the federal government hasn't been mobilized to help California and it's out of petty spite.

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    EddyEddy Gengar the Bittersweet Registered User regular


    A highly esteemed photographer put this on Instagram, from his retirement getaway near Bozeman, MT.

    Those aren't clouds...

    "and the morning stars I have seen
    and the gengars who are guiding me" -- W.S. Merwin
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    IncenjucarIncenjucar VChatter Seattle, WARegistered User regular
    Ordered just so many air purifiers for my family in Cen Cal, plus some pet crates. They're dealing with way too many cats, including some that are not transportation-friendly at all.

    I am really, really glad they don't have horses anymore. Cat swarms are hard enough to rescue. The Snow White intro scene worth of adorable wild animals that they live around are not going to be so lucky if it sweeps up their area.

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    OrcaOrca Also known as Espressosaurus WrexRegistered User regular
    I gave up. I put in for a portable AC unit and an air purifier (my apartment doesn't allow window units). Purifier arrives tomorrow, AC arrives Saturday. :P

    After 10 years without AC I finally surrender. Can't open up the windows for ventilation when it's raining ash and the skies look like blood!

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    NobeardNobeard North Carolina: Failed StateRegistered User regular
    How many tons of material is drifting away as ash and how, if at all, does that affect regrowth in burned areas? All that matter getting removed from the ecosystem has to have an effect.

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    MillMill Registered User regular
    Also wondering if this might hit a point where the east coast might feel some of the impact. At some point the westerlies are going to have enough soot and ash to work with, that some of it finds it's way east in significant amounts. Granted, this assumes we aren't already at the point where there is enough material for that inevitably happen.

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    IncenjucarIncenjucar VChatter Seattle, WARegistered User regular
    Nobeard wrote: »
    How many tons of material is drifting away as ash and how, if at all, does that affect regrowth in burned areas? All that matter getting removed from the ecosystem has to have an effect.

    It will probably have a fertilizing effect over a wide area. Old dead, fallen trees are kind of useless without enough moisture for fungi to really eat into them. Fires are good for these forests as long as they don't burn so hot that they kill everything. Some trees require fire to reproduce.

    --

    Creek Fire is up to 166,965 Acres.

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    HenroidHenroid Mexican kicked from Immigration Thread Centrism is Racism :3Registered User regular
    Mill wrote: »
    Also wondering if this might hit a point where the east coast might feel some of the impact. At some point the westerlies are going to have enough soot and ash to work with, that some of it finds it's way east in significant amounts. Granted, this assumes we aren't already at the point where there is enough material for that inevitably happen.
    That's a long projection to look at. For now it's better to ask how the neighboring states are doing.

    I forget if I posted it here or not, I'm sleep deprived, but a couple days ago here in the Vegas tip of Nevada we had a bunch of shit just drop down on us from California. Low visibility, terrible air quality. Yesterday a decent wind system came threw and blew almost all of it away, though even today there was some subtle haze in the distance. I dunno what the following days are going to look like. The wind has slowed for the most part, but over the next week it subtly picks up again. I dunno if that will make things better or worse for us and I guess it depends on what continues to burn in California.

    I'm a lot more distressed about this than I'm letting on. I haven't heard anything about family members having to be evacuated. Friends of mine from so long ago that are still in the state, well I don't use Facebook anymore so I just don't have a clue. I can't help but think about things in the worst sense. Even if they're not in the direct danger from the flames, there's just so much shit in the air that's bad for their lungs.

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    dispatch.odispatch.o Registered User regular

    Putting in spoilers just because I'm not sure how it plays with being linked, but this is an oregon.gov map that also shows fire locations in California.

    The details of evacuation zones and such are pretty scary. All that red and yellow southeast of Portland isn't just a bunch of fields or trees.

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    EddyEddy Gengar the Bittersweet Registered User regular
    From a scientific standpoint, why did the sky turn orange/red? It can't be just reflections of the fires or anything like chemicals, right? There was probably some kind of light/refraction thing going on?

    "and the morning stars I have seen
    and the gengars who are guiding me" -- W.S. Merwin
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    furlionfurlion Riskbreaker Lea MondeRegistered User regular
    Eddy wrote: »
    From a scientific standpoint, why did the sky turn orange/red? It can't be just reflections of the fires or anything like chemicals, right? There was probably some kind of light/refraction thing going on?

    Can't remember the exact reason why but basically anytime you have a large amount of dust/particulates in the air the sky will do that. It's easier to see with the moon since it is not as bright and so requires a lower concentration to occur.

    sig.gif Gamertag: KL Retribution
    PSN:Furlion
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    AspectVoidAspectVoid Registered User regular
    Incenjucar wrote: »
    Nobeard wrote: »
    How many tons of material is drifting away as ash and how, if at all, does that affect regrowth in burned areas? All that matter getting removed from the ecosystem has to have an effect.

    It will probably have a fertilizing effect over a wide area. Old dead, fallen trees are kind of useless without enough moisture for fungi to really eat into them. Fires are good for these forests as long as they don't burn so hot that they kill everything. Some trees require fire to reproduce.

    --

    Creek Fire is up to 166,965 Acres.

    Yeah, the forests in California evolved in a way that has summer burnings act as part of their life cycle and the growth of new trees and brush. One of the major reasons that these fires are so bad is because we constantly fight and contain the fires, and all of this underbrush that's suppose to burn away every year or two has just built up more and more. Its all just been waiting for a tipping point and eventually we'd get fires so large they could not be contained or controlled. It seems like we might have finally hit that point.

    PSN|AspectVoid
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    MorganVMorganV Registered User regular
    edited September 2020
    Eddy wrote: »
    From a scientific standpoint, why did the sky turn orange/red? It can't be just reflections of the fires or anything like chemicals, right? There was probably some kind of light/refraction thing going on?

    Because Conner MacLeod and Allan Neyman are trying to save the Earth after our ozone layer was destroyed.

    Boy, I remember when apocalyptic climate stories were all just cheesy fiction.

    MorganV on
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    PhyphorPhyphor Building Planet Busters Tasting FruitRegistered User regular
    furlion wrote: »
    Eddy wrote: »
    From a scientific standpoint, why did the sky turn orange/red? It can't be just reflections of the fires or anything like chemicals, right? There was probably some kind of light/refraction thing going on?

    Can't remember the exact reason why but basically anytime you have a large amount of dust/particulates in the air the sky will do that. It's easier to see with the moon since it is not as bright and so requires a lower concentration to occur.

    Presumably for the same reason the sky is blue and sunsets are red. Blue light scatters in normal atmosphere -> shows blue. Add "more" atmosphere either via light smoke to incease density or just more from angle and blue light is almost entirely filtered away and redder light scatter starts to become dominant

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    Smaug6Smaug6 Registered User regular
    Eddy wrote: »
    From a scientific standpoint, why did the sky turn orange/red? It can't be just reflections of the fires or anything like chemicals, right? There was probably some kind of light/refraction thing going on?

    @Eddy - Smoke absorbs higher energy sunlight wavelengths (higher frequency/shorter wavelength light) and does not absorb light on the lower energy end of the spectrum (lower frequency/longer wavelength) such as red and infrared.

    steam_sig.png
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    MillMill Registered User regular
    Henroid wrote: »
    Mill wrote: »
    Also wondering if this might hit a point where the east coast might feel some of the impact. At some point the westerlies are going to have enough soot and ash to work with, that some of it finds it's way east in significant amounts. Granted, this assumes we aren't already at the point where there is enough material for that inevitably happen.
    That's a long projection to look at. For now it's better to ask how the neighboring states are doing.

    I forget if I posted it here or not, I'm sleep deprived, but a couple days ago here in the Vegas tip of Nevada we had a bunch of shit just drop down on us from California. Low visibility, terrible air quality. Yesterday a decent wind system came threw and blew almost all of it away, though even today there was some subtle haze in the distance. I dunno what the following days are going to look like. The wind has slowed for the most part, but over the next week it subtly picks up again. I dunno if that will make things better or worse for us and I guess it depends on what continues to burn in California.

    I'm a lot more distressed about this than I'm letting on. I haven't heard anything about family members having to be evacuated. Friends of mine from so long ago that are still in the state, well I don't use Facebook anymore so I just don't have a clue. I can't help but think about things in the worst sense. Even if they're not in the direct danger from the flames, there's just so much shit in the air that's bad for their lungs.

    I figured based what I've seen and read, that the neighboring states were already seeing an impact from the wildfires.

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    Phoenix-DPhoenix-D Registered User regular
    This round of smoke comes with an extra "No, fuck YOU" for the Seattle area
    https://kuow.org/stories/offshore-winds-could-bring-more-wildfire-smoke-back-to-seattle-area
    “Normally when we switch to the onshore flow, when the winds start coming off the ocean and onto the land, that would clear us out,” said meteorologist Dana Felton with the National Weather Service in Seattle.

    “But this is a rare case where there's a lot of smoke sitting out there over the ocean from those Oregon and California fires. So, we'll just have to see if that switch to westerly and south-westerly winds pushes that back over us.

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    BursarBursar Hee Noooo! PDX areaRegistered User regular
    The air quality where I am (Oregon, slightly east of Portland) isn't all that bad, considering; it's a hazy yellowish right now, but we never got anywhere near the apocalyptic red and orange colors seen in pictures throughout the day yesterday. We have experienced some power blips, but never a full-on outage, whereas I have coworkers who have been reporting outages to the company Discord.

    I am, however, concerned because my apartment is a 2-minute drive from the current "be ready to evacuate" line that's currently been drawn along a seemingly arbitrary straight line, with the full on "leave now" red zone reaching up without even the yellow in between. I've packed a suitcase, gathered important documents, and put the collar on the cat, but I'm a bundle of nerves right now and not having slept isn't helping.

    If they do call for an evac, where the hell would I even go? South is definitely out, that's were the majority of the fire is coming from. East is a single highway along the river, so if anything goes bad there it will go really bad, and I think the forest service has closed off everything along it anyway. West is into the city, and once we make it past, say, Beaverton, there's literally nothing out there. North is to flee up into Washington, which is having its own problems along the highway and in Vancouver.

    And to think we moved here because we liked rain!

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    PellaeonPellaeon Registered User regular
    edited September 2020
    Check your county website, they should have localized information about evacuation levels, where to go, etc. Usually fairgrounds/schools/other large areas away from the fire will be set up as evacuation locations.

    Check tripcheck.com to make sure the roads are open in the direction you're headed.

    I'm guessing we'll likely see a lot of level 1's right next to level 3's as the fire approaches more densely populated areas, there's not going to be a lot of in between area, if they think the fire is going to break toward the area it's just time to go.

    Pellaeon on
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    Phoenix-DPhoenix-D Registered User regular
    Pellaeon wrote: »
    Check your county website, they should have localized information about evacuation levels, where to go, etc. Usually fairgrounds/schools/other large areas away from the fire will be set up as evacuation locations.

    Check tripcheck.com to make sure the roads are open in the direction you're headed.

    I'm guessing we'll likely see a lot of level 1's right next to level 3's as the fire approaches more densely populated areas, there's not going to be a lot of in between area, if they think the fire is going to break toward the area it's just time to go.

    Cannot overstate this enough. Communication has been spotty at times, and even then sometimes the fire does things planners don't expect. If you think you need to go to be safe, go. Don't wait.

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    PolaritiePolaritie Sleepy Registered User regular
    Phoenix-D wrote: »
    Pellaeon wrote: »
    Check your county website, they should have localized information about evacuation levels, where to go, etc. Usually fairgrounds/schools/other large areas away from the fire will be set up as evacuation locations.

    Check tripcheck.com to make sure the roads are open in the direction you're headed.

    I'm guessing we'll likely see a lot of level 1's right next to level 3's as the fire approaches more densely populated areas, there's not going to be a lot of in between area, if they think the fire is going to break toward the area it's just time to go.

    Cannot overstate this enough. Communication has been spotty at times, and even then sometimes the fire does things planners don't expect. If you think you need to go to be safe, go. Don't wait.

    The way it sounds maybe just bailing sooner is advisable to avoid traffic.

    Do you think its just a matter of time before you're evacuating?

    Steam: Polaritie
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    Fartacus_the_MightyFartacus_the_Mighty Brought to you by the letter A.Registered User regular
    edited September 2020
    Up in Redding I kinda got used to California essentially being Mordor one summer out of three. We even had the sky changing colors or just pretending to be night. It...kinda sounds a lot like what was being described here.

    So, I sorta wonder if this is particularly intense or if it's just affecting more/unusual parts of the state. Certainly I don't recall the coastal areas having it quite so bad. It's real bad either way but now I'm curious.

    It's unheard of in SF. It looked like that picture I posted above at noon. I woke up late because of it, and since my nightstand clock is a standard 12 hour, I at first thought I'd somehow slept through to 11pm (it was 11am). It's bad again today, but it's not quite planes-of-hell bad.

    Fartacus_the_Mighty on
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    So It GoesSo It Goes We keep moving...Registered User regular
    This person is a good follow







    Here's the weather prediction for smoke to come back over most of the state



    @Bursar please stay safe no I would not head east, do you have friends in the city area? you can also check your county website or Red Cross Cascades for a spot to meet up and then hopefully get put into a hotel.

    Here's the latest evac map in Clackamas Co

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    JragghenJragghen Registered User regular
    Daniel Swain runs a weather blog I've linked to before, here: https://weatherwest.com/

    The comments section is filled with people who have local weather interest all over the west coast (although primarily in California) and can be useful for information. Or terrible for your stress, depending, when it comes to climate change talk.

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