[US Economy]-Covid-19 Depression? Edition, though not about Covid itself

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  • I ZimbraI Zimbra Colorful Extrovert Registered User regular
    I Zimbra wrote: »


    Washington Post reporter.

    Yeah, I'd imagine he wouldn't want people seeing those before the election.

    So next Friday, when they should have released the new unemployment numbers showing 25%+ unemployment, we'll instead just get silence?

    Trump sees the writing on the wall and is trying to whitewash it away.

    Also new unemployment claims rose by ~2 million last week, bringing the total new claims over 40 million in the last 10 weeks.

    Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/28/weekly-jobless-claims.html

    As far as I know they'll still be publishing the unemployment numbers, just not the economic and deficit projections that every other administration has done.

    CauldmonikerFencingsaxCommunistCowMillElldren
  • enc0reenc0re Registered User regular
    I Zimbra wrote: »


    Washington Post reporter.

    Yeah, I'd imagine he wouldn't want people seeing those before the election.

    So next Friday, when they should have released the new unemployment numbers showing 25%+ unemployment, we'll instead just get silence?

    Trump sees the writing on the wall and is trying to whitewash it away.

    Also new unemployment claims rose by ~2 million last week, bringing the total new claims over 40 million in the last 10 weeks.

    Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/28/weekly-jobless-claims.html

    The unemployment numbers will come out same as always. They are not putting out their usual forecast. White House forecasts are always ridiculously rosy anyway, so it shouldn't matter to anything practical.

    CauldCaptain InertiamonikerOghulkFencingsaxMillLord_AsmodeusKetBra
  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    Orca wrote: »
    Re: the boomer screen snip

    That was sloppy editing on my part, my bad

    I was just pointing out that while income for boomers came closest of all generations to recovering, that employment didn’t recover has been cited as a cause for further boomer brain worms and them taking comfort in the fascists’ propaganda giving them an excuse of “the other” that’s keeping them from getting jobs

    I think what the full graph may represent is rich boomers taking a larger slice of the economic pie by replacing higher paid peers with lower paid youngins

    I mean, the same thing happened in Nazi Germany. It wasn't the workers who suffered the worst effects of the post-WWI economy and Depression that supported the facists. They were predominantly either mainstream voters or Communists.

    It was the small business owners, bankers, and other middle class folks who were doing relatively well financially who flocked to the Nazis. That because the dynamic with fascism isn't "Everyone who became poor becomes fascists."

    It's that people lose faith in the systems, the assholes band together because they think "Only we can solve this!", and no one tries that hard to stop them because they are disillusioned. Eventually, it turns out the assholes' solution is "Murder everyone who disagrees with us", and it's downhill from there.

    Repeat and rinse, and that's the story of the rise of fascism wherever it happens. The Powers That Be fuck up, the nation's asshole bosses and generals get together to fix things, and it all goes to hell.

    This all starts with a simmering racial resentment that makes for an "other" to pin all the problems on. Eventually, solving those problems gets connecting with getting rid of those "others", which logically then leads to "let's open up some death camps".

    Fascism is rooted in racism and loathing of the other, for whatever definition of other is convenient at the time.

    To tie this back to the economy, racism means it's easy to blame globalism (the other), globalists (AKA the Jewish, always a convenient other), and immigrants (ditto) for why it's so hard to get ahead in today's economy, instead of the home-grown assholes who have systematically stacked the deck legislatively to favor concentration of wealth over the last 50 years. Capital attracts capital, and absent a moderating force like the government, we have shown it will cheerfully lead us back to a feudal society...but with Twitter.

    And as the "First they came for..." poem shows, the racism is just the opening salvo. Left without opposition, fascists will target an endless list of internal enemies and each other as they devour the nation seeking others to blame for their failures.

    ...no? The first three salvos of the poem are, in order: Communists, Socialists, Trade Unions. After that it's Jews.

    shrykemrondeauStyrofoam SammichFencingsaxLord_AsmodeusGennenalyse RuebenpainfulPleasanceDavid WalgasForarElldren
  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    enc0re wrote: »
    I Zimbra wrote: »


    Washington Post reporter.

    Yeah, I'd imagine he wouldn't want people seeing those before the election.

    So next Friday, when they should have released the new unemployment numbers showing 25%+ unemployment, we'll instead just get silence?

    Trump sees the writing on the wall and is trying to whitewash it away.

    Also new unemployment claims rose by ~2 million last week, bringing the total new claims over 40 million in the last 10 weeks.

    Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/28/weekly-jobless-claims.html

    The unemployment numbers will come out same as always. They are not putting out their usual forecast. White House forecasts are always ridiculously rosy anyway, so it shouldn't matter to anything practical.

    And it's not like Goldman Sachs, ADP, and various others aren't going to release their own projections anyway. You can't just will mass ignorance into being. Especially when it comes to making money.

    CommunistCow
  • OghulkOghulk Registered User regular
    Can't read the article but I presume it's just the white house cea numbers. BLS, BEA, Fed, etc. will still be putting out their numbers as usual. We'll probably see around 20% in U3 depending on how much the reopening has worked and probably like 27% in U6.

    monikerCauld
  • MazzyxMazzyx Comedy Gold Registered User regular
    edited May 28
    I Zimbra wrote: »


    Washington Post reporter.

    Yeah, I'd imagine he wouldn't want people seeing those before the election.

    So next Friday, when they should have released the new unemployment numbers showing 25%+ unemployment, we'll instead just get silence?

    Trump sees the writing on the wall and is trying to whitewash it away.

    Also new unemployment claims rose by ~2 million last week, bringing the total new claims over 40 million in the last 10 weeks.

    Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/28/weekly-jobless-claims.html

    No that should come out. This is the overall projections like GDP and growth not the month to month labor stats.

    Won't the Fed still release their projections though?

    CBO has already updated and released new projections just is this the Administrations version.

    Mazzyx on
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  • Captain InertiaCaptain Inertia Registered User regular
    Glad to have flown the coop and landed in the new thread

    Commander ZoomKaroz
  • Commander ZoomCommander Zoom Registered User regular
    Nobody here but us chickens.

    steam_sig.png
    Steam, Warframe: Megajoule
    Captain InertiaKarozMrVyngaard
  • OghulkOghulk Registered User regular
    Just gonna strut on over here to the actual new thread

    Captain InertiaKarozSkeith
  • SkeithSkeith Registered User regular
    Dang, the thread's been up a week and a half. Guess we all have some egg on our faces for missing it.

    mts wrote: »
    heres how i see it being a total win situation for you
    1. stay with your wife while she dog sits. this wins husband points since she knows its out of your comfort zone
    2. have sex all over her friends house so that the next time you see her friend look at you condescendingly, you can wink back knowing you did the freaky deaky where she eats her cheerios.
    OghulkCaptain InertiaGnome-InterruptusKarozSleepPolaritie
  • silence1186silence1186 Character shields down! As a wingmanRegistered User regular
    Another 1.8 million unemployed. Should get the new unemployment numbers tomorrow for last month.

    V wrote:
    Words will always retain their power. Words offer the means to meaning, and for those who will listen, the enunciation of truth.

  • OghulkOghulk Registered User regular
    So we're at about 43 million unemployment claims. The unemployment claims alone is around 26% unemployment, with structural on top you're looking at almost 30%. Depends of course on how many people are back in work what with the "reopening". I'd expect U3 tomorrow to be around 21% with U6 probably around 26% or higher.

  • notyanotya Registered User regular
    Are there any numbers out there that kind of separate service job losses from white collar office worker job losses? I'm curious how much of unemployment is just the service industy.

  • MazzyxMazzyx Comedy Gold Registered User regular
    notya wrote: »
    Are there any numbers out there that kind of separate service job losses from white collar office worker job losses? I'm curious how much of unemployment is just the service industy.

    Bureau of Labor does this in their normal stats.

    https://www.bls.gov/ces/

    This is with last month's data of course.

    tnjw194s5yn5.png

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    notya
  • AiouaAioua Ora Occidens Ora OptimaRegistered User regular
    that graph is a nightmare

    life's a game that you're bound to lose / like using a hammer to pound in screws
    fuck up once and you break your thumb / if you're happy at all then you're god damn dumb
    that's right we're on a fucked up cruise / God is dead but at least we have booze
    bad things happen, no one knows why / the sun burns out and everyone dies
    Phoenix-DmonikerFencingsaxOrcaVishNubMartini_PhilosopherLucedesMrBlarneyL Ron HowardMoridin889EinzelJebus314kimeOghulkMortal Skynever dieSkeithemp123MillNobeardZonugalDocDisruptedCapitalistQuidHefflingDee KaeElldrenLord_AsmodeusDiannaoChongAntoshkaHappylilElfHacksaw
  • MazzyxMazzyx Comedy Gold Registered User regular
    Who ever is doing DoL's visualizations need help. That I agree with.

    03x29di.png
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  • AiouaAioua Ora Occidens Ora OptimaRegistered User regular
    Mazzyx wrote: »
    Who ever is doing DoL's visualizations need help. That I agree with.

    90% confidence interval... on which category the data belongs to :rotate:

    life's a game that you're bound to lose / like using a hammer to pound in screws
    fuck up once and you break your thumb / if you're happy at all then you're god damn dumb
    that's right we're on a fucked up cruise / God is dead but at least we have booze
    bad things happen, no one knows why / the sun burns out and everyone dies
    kimeMarty81durandal4532milski
  • DevoutlyApatheticDevoutlyApathetic Registered User regular
    Aioua wrote: »
    Mazzyx wrote: »
    Who ever is doing DoL's visualizations need help. That I agree with.

    90% confidence interval... on which category the data belongs to :rotate:

    Think that's referring to the tiny little bars above the red dots. The almost invisible ones?

    It is not a good graph.

  • FencingsaxFencingsax It is difficult to get a man to understand, when his salary depends upon his not understanding GNU Terry PratchettRegistered User regular
    edited June 4
    Aioua wrote: »
    Mazzyx wrote: »
    Who ever is doing DoL's visualizations need help. That I agree with.

    90% confidence interval... on which category the data belongs to :rotate:

    I assumed it meant that the confidence interval was very short(or, y'know, the spectrum is excessively large), but I can see the other way, now.

    Fencingsax on
    torchlight-sig-80.jpg
  • schussschuss Registered User regular
    As a data viz person (part of the time), that chart just hurts.

    Shadow DemonOghulkdurandal4532Dee KaeDiannaoChong
  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    Mazzyx wrote: »
    Who ever is doing DoL's visualizations need help. That I agree with.

    It seems like the sort of thing that would work fine when you don't have to cover a split of +10 to -22,500

    These are not normal times. Hell how many people remarked on thinking the last unemployment report had a border on the right hand side before realizing it was the latest figure?

    Captain InertiaCouscousMartini_PhilosopherGnome-InterruptusFencingsaxElldren
  • Captain InertiaCaptain Inertia Registered User regular
    Yeah that one was designed for the dots to all be closer to zero and to the right

    FencingsaxKayne Red Robe
  • OrcaOrca Registered User regular
    That's when you need to go to a log scale.

    Problem is most people aren't used to that.

    It would also be informative to see a view that's normalized against the number of people in that industry.

    Gnome-InterruptusDevoutlyApathetic
  • honoverehonovere Registered User regular
    Are there historical examples that show that reducing VAT works as a stimulus measurment? Asking because the German governmet coalition agreed on a Corona stimulus package and reducing VAT for half a year is the most expensive part of it.

    https://www.dw.com/en/germanys-angela-merkel-unveils-stimulus-package-to-kickstart-economy/a-53677420

  • daveNYCdaveNYC Why universe hate Waspinator? Registered User regular
    honovere wrote: »
    Are there historical examples that show that reducing VAT works as a stimulus measurment? Asking because the German governmet coalition agreed on a Corona stimulus package and reducing VAT for half a year is the most expensive part of it.

    https://www.dw.com/en/germanys-angela-merkel-unveils-stimulus-package-to-kickstart-economy/a-53677420

    It makes everything cheaper, which I guess is sorta-vaguely like putting cash in people's pockets, but that still depends on people having cash and going out and spending it. If you're broke, then a cut in VAT does you no good. Even from a raw math standpoint I don't think it's going to bump GDP as much as some form of straight up government spending would.

    Shut up, Mr. Burton! You were not brought upon this world to get it!
    Gnome-InterruptusKayne Red Robe
  • MazzyxMazzyx Comedy Gold Registered User regular
    Unemployment rate drops to 13 percent, as the economy began to lose jobs at a slower pace
    The federal unemployment rate declined to 13.3 percent in May, down from 14.7 percent in April, the Department of Labor said Friday, a sign that economy is improving quicker than economists had projected.

    2.5 million people gained jobs in May, as states and counties began to reopen around the country.

    There are hopes that these figures signal the country is moving away from the nadir of the crisis. Yet the 30 million workers who are still collecting unemployment benefits is a sign of how significantly the labor market has been upended.

    Economists agree that getting back to normal will take longer and be more challenging than recessions of the past.

    The other thing that stood out to me in the article though was:
    Nearly half of commercial rents went unpaid in May. Oil and gas drillers Whiting Petroleum and Diamond Offshore have filed for bankruptcy protection, as have brands like J. Crew and J.C. Penney. American Airlines said travel was down 80 percent in May. And concerns are bubbling about another wave of layoffs, as state and municipal governments are forced to drastically pare down their budgets.

    In the last three months, industries such as leisure and hospitality have lost nearly half their workers, or about 8 million jobs; education and health services have lost 2.6 million jobs; and goods-producing sectors have dropped by around 2.4 million, according to analysts at Moody’s Investor Services.

    03x29di.png
    thatassemblyguy
  • schussschuss Registered User regular
    Orca wrote: »
    That's when you need to go to a log scale.

    Problem is most people aren't used to that.

    It would also be informative to see a view that's normalized against the number of people in that industry.

    Nah, the issue is the dot size compared to the scale and error bars. In many cases the dot is larger than the bars, which means it's unreadable and hard to tell where the actual point is. Things like data callouts/whiskers on values are a better fit here.

    Fencingsax
  • wish you were gaywish you were gay Registered User regular
    Holy sh!t!!

    Unemployment down to 13%. The shit is over. There was no need for the doom and gloom after all.

  • CouscousCouscous Registered User regular
    A massive shift when the levels are so low is expected, and the massive shift upward still means it is bad because the hole is so dang deep and doesn't indicate whether it will get back to ok levels soon.

    thatassemblyguy
  • rndmherorndmhero Registered User regular
    I'm... confused. Can someone explain why 2.5 million new jobs matters in the face of ~40 million UI filings? How is that a net improvement?

    silence1186OrcaElldren
  • wish you were gaywish you were gay Registered User regular
    Couscous wrote: »
    A massive shift when the levels are so low is expected, and the massive shift upward still means it is bad because the hole is so dang deep and doesn't indicate whether it will get back to ok levels soon.

    So what would actually be “good” to see??

  • durandal4532durandal4532 Registered User regular
    Couscous wrote: »
    A massive shift when the levels are so low is expected, and the massive shift upward still means it is bad because the hole is so dang deep and doesn't indicate whether it will get back to ok levels soon.

    So what would actually be “good” to see??

    To not have a pandemic raging in a country that doesn't want to reckon with the reality that the only economically viable method to weather the storm is to provide for all of the people living in it regardless of circumstance.

    Take a moment to donate what you can to Critical Resistance and Black Lives Matter.
    L Ron HowardSleepmonikerFencingsaxMillthatassemblyguyemp123ElldrenLord_Asmodeus
  • OghulkOghulk Registered User regular
    According to the press release temporary layoffs decreased by 2.7 million (furloughed workers coming back) but permanent job losses increased by roughly 300,000. Because so much of the unemployment was made up of temp unemployment it's not too surprising that the numbers would decrease, but the increase in permanent job losses is not a good sign.

    monikerCaptain InertiaElldren
  • CouscousCouscous Registered User regular
    edited June 5
    Washington Post reporter:

    If we get the same improvements in the next two months, unemployment will still be worse than at the peak of the great recession when the previous phases expire.

    Treating this as meaning the crisis is over is nonsense

    Edit: Economics professor:

    Lemme put today's surprising jobs numbers in perspective.

    It's simple arithmetic that when millions of businesses are shuttered that employment will tank, and any reversal will lead jobs to spike.

    The only real surprise was that the spike started this month, rather than next.
    Another attempt at perspective.

    20 million people lost their jobs, causing unemployment to rise near Depression levels.

    Today's data says 1-in-8 of those jobs returned.

    But the real question is what'll happen to the rest? Even if half return we're replaying the Great Recession

    Couscous on
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  • MazzyxMazzyx Comedy Gold Registered User regular
    The other thing I am thinking of is participation rate. There is a chunk of folks who are getting unemployment without requirements to look due to be furloughed and such. And I am not sure they are actively being captured in these numbers. I was trying to dig around for the broader unemployment rate that includes a larger number of folks.

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    NobeardElldren
  • OghulkOghulk Registered User regular
    The government sector took a fucking walloping. Continued decline of 585,000, 310,000 in local education. Those aren't good numbers since governments form the backbone/last line when an economic crisis hits. The vast majority of the increase is in leisure and hospitality and construction

    Gnome-Interruptus
  • NobeardNobeard North Carolina: Failed StateRegistered User regular
    I don't believe the numbers. I suspect someone's lying for Trump. However, facts and data will show the truth. I might be overly suspicious. What organization reports these numbers, who heads it and how do they get there?

    I'm not saying we are going to have an autocratic dystopia, but things keep happening that look like they come from an autocratic dystopia.
    Sleep
  • OghulkOghulk Registered User regular
    Nobeard wrote: »
    I don't believe the numbers. I suspect someone's lying for Trump. However, facts and data will show the truth. I might be overly suspicious. What organization reports these numbers, who heads it and how do they get there?

    You're being overly suspicious. The bureau of labor statistics is a highly regarded institution with a single political appointee that doesn't even have much direct control over the surveys and employment. Everything in the tables makes sense, especially in the context of states reopening.

    monikera5ehrenenc0reFencingsaxCaptain InertiaCauldjmcdonaldSpoitshrykeGnome-InterruptusQanamilElldrennever die
  • MazzyxMazzyx Comedy Gold Registered User regular
    Nobeard wrote: »
    I don't believe the numbers. I suspect someone's lying for Trump. However, facts and data will show the truth. I might be overly suspicious. What organization reports these numbers, who heads it and how do they get there?

    Civil servants. Not signed by political appointees. Department of Labor. Numbers are based on standard surveys. They aren't lying but the measure has caveats that wouldn't cover all the people not working and receiving unemployment at the moment as it only captures those actively looking for work at the moment. Furloughed folks wouldn't count if they aren't looking. Folks with reduced hours wouldn't count. Stuff like that. Also those who have dropped out of the work force due to the virus.

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    CouscousQuidmonikerCauldElldren
  • PhillisherePhillishere Registered User regular
    Nobeard wrote: »
    I don't believe the numbers. I suspect someone's lying for Trump. However, facts and data will show the truth. I might be overly suspicious. What organization reports these numbers, who heads it and how do they get there?

    You've also got the many retail/restaurant businesses returning their employees, then despairing because they still don't have enough customers to stay open. Without any rent assistance or stoppage (or allowance for renegotiation), you have retail and food especially operating in a reduced economy while the landlords demand full contractual payment.

    ShadowhopemonikerMoridin889FencingsaxCaptain InertiaCauldMillshrykeGnome-InterruptusGONG-00Hefflingemp123ElldrenLord_Asmodeus
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