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[US Economy]-Covid-19 Depression? Edition, though not about Covid itself
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As far as I know they'll still be publishing the unemployment numbers, just not the economic and deficit projections that every other administration has done.
The unemployment numbers will come out same as always. They are not putting out their usual forecast. White House forecasts are always ridiculously rosy anyway, so it shouldn't matter to anything practical.
...no? The first three salvos of the poem are, in order: Communists, Socialists, Trade Unions. After that it's Jews.
And it's not like Goldman Sachs, ADP, and various others aren't going to release their own projections anyway. You can't just will mass ignorance into being. Especially when it comes to making money.
No that should come out. This is the overall projections like GDP and growth not the month to month labor stats.
Won't the Fed still release their projections though?
CBO has already updated and released new projections just is this the Administrations version.
Bureau of Labor does this in their normal stats.
https://www.bls.gov/ces/
This is with last month's data of course.
fuck up once and you break your thumb / if you're happy at all then you're god damn dumb
that's right we're on a fucked up cruise / God is dead but at least we have booze
bad things happen, no one knows why / the sun burns out and everyone dies
90% confidence interval... on which category the data belongs to :rotate:
fuck up once and you break your thumb / if you're happy at all then you're god damn dumb
that's right we're on a fucked up cruise / God is dead but at least we have booze
bad things happen, no one knows why / the sun burns out and everyone dies
Think that's referring to the tiny little bars above the red dots. The almost invisible ones?
It is not a good graph.
I assumed it meant that the confidence interval was very short(or, y'know, the spectrum is excessively large), but I can see the other way, now.
It seems like the sort of thing that would work fine when you don't have to cover a split of +10 to -22,500
These are not normal times. Hell how many people remarked on thinking the last unemployment report had a border on the right hand side before realizing it was the latest figure?
https://www.dw.com/en/germanys-angela-merkel-unveils-stimulus-package-to-kickstart-economy/a-53677420
It makes everything cheaper, which I guess is sorta-vaguely like putting cash in people's pockets, but that still depends on people having cash and going out and spending it. If you're broke, then a cut in VAT does you no good. Even from a raw math standpoint I don't think it's going to bump GDP as much as some form of straight up government spending would.
The other thing that stood out to me in the article though was:
Nah, the issue is the dot size compared to the scale and error bars. In many cases the dot is larger than the bars, which means it's unreadable and hard to tell where the actual point is. Things like data callouts/whiskers on values are a better fit here.
Unemployment down to 13%. The shit is over. There was no need for the doom and gloom after all.
So what would actually be “good” to see??
To not have a pandemic raging in a country that doesn't want to reckon with the reality that the only economically viable method to weather the storm is to provide for all of the people living in it regardless of circumstance.
If we get the same improvements in the next two months, unemployment will still be worse than at the peak of the great recession when the previous phases expire.
Treating this as meaning the crisis is over is nonsense
Edit: Economics professor:
Civil servants. Not signed by political appointees. Department of Labor. Numbers are based on standard surveys. They aren't lying but the measure has caveats that wouldn't cover all the people not working and receiving unemployment at the moment as it only captures those actively looking for work at the moment. Furloughed folks wouldn't count if they aren't looking. Folks with reduced hours wouldn't count. Stuff like that. Also those who have dropped out of the work force due to the virus.
You've also got the many retail/restaurant businesses returning their employees, then despairing because they still don't have enough customers to stay open. Without any rent assistance or stoppage (or allowance for renegotiation), you have retail and food especially operating in a reduced economy while the landlords demand full contractual payment.