Scientists warn of a potential wave of coronavirus-related brain damage as new evidence suggests COVID-19 can lead to severe neurological complications, including inflammation, psychosis and delirium. Scientists warn of potential wave of COVID-linked brain damage
From article:
A study by researchers at University College London described 43 cases of patients with COVID-19 who suffered either temporary brain dysfunction, strokes, nerve damage or other serious brain effects.
The research adds to recent studies which also found the disease can damage the brain.
"Whether we will see an epidemic on a large scale of brain damage linked to the pandemic – perhaps similar to the encephalitis lethargica outbreak in the 1920s and 1930s after the 1918 influenza pandemic — remains to be seen," said Michael Zandi, from UCL's Institute of Neurology, who co-led the study.
I was aware of acute encephalopathy (also called delirium), ADEM, stroke, Guillain barre, transverse myelitis, meningitis, encephalitis, and of course anosmia cases possibly related to COVID-19. Of these, only delirium (2-22% overall, 65% if in the ICU) and anosmia (55% of confirmed COVID-19) had incidence rates. There's not reliable data on the incidence from ADEM from this study (and I really want to see from stroke).
I've looked into a few articles from a neuropathology standpoint, and there's not really great evidence out there, more conceptual brainstorming. I like a figure from this article from Pakistan which shows multiple possible (but not proven) ways that COVID-19 can affect the brain. I'm torn between hematogenous spread causing local inflammation of small vessels around the brain disrupting the blood brain barrier and neuronal transmission through the olfactory (from nose) and vagus (from lung) spread as shown in the original SARS.
Don't tell anyone, but this might ... be bad news for the development of a COVID-19 vaccine if the mechanism is what we think it is in ADEM: antiviral antibodies developed by our immune system that look too similar to myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein (look up Anti-MOG and Molecular Mimicry). However, if molecular mimicry isn't the mechanism, then the disruption of the blood brain barrier exposing the rest of the body to the brain's private antigens in a person undergoing acute sickness and inflammation could be the recipe for this autoimmune disease, in which case the vaccine would help prevent the brain-body exposure from happening in the first place and reduce the incidence of ADEM. Assuming this uptick in incidence is real and caused by COVID-19.
@Paladin Sorry...I don't know how to parse anything in here. That's not a criticism or anything, I just don't comprehend it.
For instance, are you saying that 55% of confirmed COVID-19 cases resulted in anosmia? Loss of sense of smell? How much of that is total vs. partial and permanent vs. temporary? Or are you saying that 55% of current cases of anosmia are linked back to COVID-19? Or what?
Scientists warn of a potential wave of coronavirus-related brain damage as new evidence suggests COVID-19 can lead to severe neurological complications, including inflammation, psychosis and delirium. Scientists warn of potential wave of COVID-linked brain damage
From article:
A study by researchers at University College London described 43 cases of patients with COVID-19 who suffered either temporary brain dysfunction, strokes, nerve damage or other serious brain effects.
The research adds to recent studies which also found the disease can damage the brain.
"Whether we will see an epidemic on a large scale of brain damage linked to the pandemic – perhaps similar to the encephalitis lethargica outbreak in the 1920s and 1930s after the 1918 influenza pandemic — remains to be seen," said Michael Zandi, from UCL's Institute of Neurology, who co-led the study.
I was aware of acute encephalopathy (also called delirium), ADEM, stroke, Guillain barre, transverse myelitis, meningitis, encephalitis, and of course anosmia cases possibly related to COVID-19. Of these, only delirium (2-22% overall, 65% if in the ICU) and anosmia (55% of confirmed COVID-19) had incidence rates. There's not reliable data on the incidence from ADEM from this study (and I really want to see from stroke).
I've looked into a few articles from a neuropathology standpoint, and there's not really great evidence out there, more conceptual brainstorming. I like a figure from this article from Pakistan which shows multiple possible (but not proven) ways that COVID-19 can affect the brain. I'm torn between hematogenous spread causing local inflammation of small vessels around the brain disrupting the blood brain barrier and neuronal transmission through the olfactory (from nose) and vagus (from lung) spread as shown in the original SARS.
Don't tell anyone, but this might ... be bad news for the development of a COVID-19 vaccine if the mechanism is what we think it is in ADEM: antiviral antibodies developed by our immune system that look too similar to myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein (look up Anti-MOG and Molecular Mimicry). However, if molecular mimicry isn't the mechanism, then the disruption of the blood brain barrier exposing the rest of the body to the brain's private antigens in a person undergoing acute sickness and inflammation could be the recipe for this autoimmune disease, in which case the vaccine would help prevent the brain-body exposure from happening in the first place and reduce the incidence of ADEM. Assuming this uptick in incidence is real and caused by COVID-19.
@Paladin Sorry...I don't know how to parse anything in here. That's not a criticism or anything, I just don't comprehend it.
For instance, are you saying that 55% of confirmed COVID-19 cases resulted in anosmia? Loss of sense of smell? How much of that is total vs. partial and permanent vs. temporary? Or are you saying that 55% of current cases of anosmia are linked back to COVID-19? Or what?
The former, but bear in mind that was one sample of one study. The real incidence rate in the general population may be different but somewhere in the ballpark.
Marty: The future, it's where you're going? Doc: That's right, twenty five years into the future. I've always dreamed on seeing the future, looking beyond my years, seeing the progress of mankind. I'll also be able to see who wins the next twenty-five world series.
Yeah tbh my initial response to that reply was that iKnowSomeOfTheseWords.gif from Good Burger, but I didn't want that to seem rude, it was just over my head is all!
The situation in North Carolina is starting to get particularly ominous. Hospitalizations have been on the rise since just before the start of the month, with one small dip on like the 3rd. Data on cases is a bit weird, but after a lull over the weekend they're popping back up again. Overall where in a place where if we rollback know it will help stem the tide.
So obviously my prediction is we won't (we just opened bowling alleys!), and instead in another week or so shit will start to explode again and probably somewhere around the end of the month they'll try to roll back a little bit more but it won't be enough.
New day, new records in both case count and hospitalizations. What's got me curious now is that NC's data allows you to also view cases by date of specimen collected. It's not as pretty and impactful of a line but it tells an interesting story. On 6/29, 2506 specimen were collected that have since come back positive. If it takes a week to get your results, that means all those people found out they were positive right after the holiday weekend. Which is, you know, bad. Now, NC is apparently home to one of the larger US-based testing companies (LabCorp), as well as having a lot of hospitals in their denser regions (RTP especially), so it might not actually take that long here? But either way that's not great.
For a hot minute back in March I thought we'd actually learned from Italy and people would wind up complaining that we overreacted for nothing :sad:
Italy? Hell, the US didn't learn from New York City, in its own country, where most of the biggest media is centralized.
Speaking of, Texas has also hit the point of refrigerated morgue trucks. If you told me Florida also has morgue trucks but the government there is covering it up along with all the other things they're covering up, I would not be the least surprised.
There are some reports from Iran that they're also going through a second wave, even rougher than the first, and the first was nasty. Again, it's hard to say between the government denials and with testing having hit a plateau back in April and never really increasing since then. It's also possible though that since many of these reports are coming from more remote areas it's just the same effect we're seeing the US: it takes a while for the exponential increases to start being visible, so it's less a "second" wave and more the neverending first wave reaching outlying regions where medical care was always more limited but is now unavailable.
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MayabirdPecking at the keyboardRegistered Userregular
South Africa continues to explode with COVID-19. Cases have doubled in two weeks while the positivity rate also continues to rise (now over 10%). South Africa is set to blow past the UK in total cases within a few days. The death rate appears to be low right now, but that might also be a factor of the rapid growth in cases and the lag time to deaths. Just like with other places with exploding cases that have some sort of open media reporting news, we'll see in about two weeks.
And Florida has broken 15k cases in a day. Higher than NY ever hit for a single day. On the same weekend Disney is opening back up. God help us all.
It'll be interesting to see if our increased testing lowers our fatality rate out of confirmed cases. A couple weeks ago we were around 30-40k new cases country wide, and yet we're only seeing 500-1000 deaths per day now. Putting it at closer to 2 percent. Whereas before I think we were closer to 4? We're also developing better treatments. We'll see.
And Florida has broken 15k cases in a day. Higher than NY ever hit for a single day. On the same weekend Disney is opening back up. God help us all.
It'll be interesting to see if our increased testing lowers our fatality rate out of confirmed cases. A couple weeks ago we were around 30-40k new cases country wide, and yet we're only seeing 500-1000 deaths per day now. Putting it at closer to 2 percent. Whereas before I think we were closer to 4? We're also developing better treatments. We'll see.
It’s just a combination of better testing and lag between infections and deaths. There is a better treatment effect too, but, the more testing effect dwarfs it.
Better treatment will be moot with overflowing hospitals, but the death rate is catching up as we just past the first week of the lag since cases started shooting upward. In two more weeks we'll see the deaths matching this weeks case surge. Sadly the trends have yet to reverse as the afflicted states are not issuing full lockdowns.
daveNYCWhy universe hate Waspinator?Registered Userregular
The timing of illness onset and death/recovery:
50% will show symptoms after 5-6 days, 95% will show symptoms after 14 days. Lancet
Recovery is roughly 20-21 days after illness onset, death occurs 18-19 days (think these numbers are median, Lancet article here) after onset. I believe these were all for hospitalized people.
So the deaths we're seeing today are from the cases that were discovered roughly three weeks to one month ago. Give or take a chunk of days here or there because statistics and stuff.
A four week delay seems to be enough to break a lot of people's concept of cause and effect.
Shut up, Mr. Burton! You were not brought upon this world to get it!
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MayabirdPecking at the keyboardRegistered Userregular
Between the infected naval ships and the outbreaks in Okinawa and other news, you might be thinking that there seems to be an awful lot of SARS2 circulating among the US military. If so, you would be correct, because the US military's COVID-19 cases are increasing a bit more than twice as fast as the ludicrous rate for the rest of the US. There have not been many deaths reported among the active services (yet?) but these cases are also spreading to nearby civilians, dependents, and contractors, which are also getting infected at faster rates than the rest of the US and who have suffered more deaths.
Sri Lanka has basically admitted that their official numbers are a vast undercount. They had reopened schools, saying that everything was fine in the country with less than 3000 cases, but have shut them back down a week later after they already started to see a surge of new cases. Cases have been detected in villages across the nation, indicating a widespread epidemic, and half the residents of a 1000+ drug rehab facility turned out to be positive. There are elections scheduled for a month from now, so the Sri Lankan government has started some postal voting for poll officers though they haven't stated if they will expand that to everyone for the election (which they should).
Another country with likely vastly undercounted cases: Madagascar. Officially, about 4000 cases total. Twenty seven of those are in the national government and two of those lawmakers have already died. It's giving me Iran vibes the case numbers are low but the infections are far more widespread to the point that notable numbers of high officials are dying too. Also, their president is pitching some local herbal remedy as a cure, because every bad politician in the world is fishing for some easy magic silver bullet to fix the problem so they don't have to put in effort.
Finally, Turkmenistan clearly has outbreaks if not a full blown national epidemic. The country is still as denialist as North Korea (which also undoubtedly has a national epidemic) but is now recommending that everyone wear masks - because of the dust. So much dust, you can't see it, but it's definitely worse than usual and people need to protect their respiratory tracts.
We're having to read tea leaves now when there should be good information. I no longer wonder at the wide variations of fatality estimates of prior pandemics and epidemics.
For a hot minute back in March I thought we'd actually learned from Italy and people would wind up complaining that we overreacted for nothing :sad:
I mean, you’re half right.
Yeah, my piece of shit, Trumpy, Qanon-loving cousin is still talking about how the initial lockdowns were an overreaction (which he says is a good thing since it saved people!) but now that we’ve beaten the virus it’s time to get back to work and he’s soooooo worried about how kids won’t get socialized in the fall if they stay home.
TetraNitroCubaneThe DjinneratorAt the bottom of a bottleRegistered Userregular
edited July 2020
There's been a new study related to the stability of the virus in aerosols. Pre-publication journal article is available here, via the CDC's website.
Abstract
We aerosolized severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 and determined that its dynamic aerosol efficiency surpassed those of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus and Middle East respiratory syndrome. Although we performed experiment only once across several laboratories, our findings suggest retained infectivity and virion integrity for up to 16 hours in respirable-sized aerosols.
Collectively, these preliminary data suggest that SARS-CoV-2 is resilient in aerosol form and agree with conclusions reached in earlier studies of aerosol fitness (6). A clear limitation of the aerosol stability data is that we report only 1 measurement of the 16-h time point; future studies need to repeat these findings before any definitive conclusions are reached. Aerosol transmission of SARS-CoV-2 may be a more important exposure transmission pathway than previously considered (7). Our approach of quantitative measurement of infectivity of viral airborne efficiency augmented by assessment of virion morphology suggests that SARS-CoV-2 may be viable as an airborne pathogen. Humans produce aerosols continuously through normal respiration (8). Aerosol production increases during respiratory illnesses (9,10) and during louder-than-normal oration (11). A fraction of naturally generated aerosols falls within the size distribution used in our experimental studies (<5 μm), which leads us to conclude that SARS-CoV-2–infected persons may produce viral bioaerosols that remain infectious for long periods after production through human shedding and airborne transport.
The study is limited, and needs additional data (though it was reproduced across several labs). But the preliminary indications suggest that SARS-CoV-2 stays infectious in the air for up to 16 hours, and is likely airborne.
TetraNitroCubane on
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ceresWhen the last moon is cast over the last star of morningAnd the future has past without even a last desperate warningRegistered User, Moderatormod
There's been a new study related to the stability of the virus in aerosols. Pre-publication journal article is available here, via the CDC's website.
Abstract
We aerosolized severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 and determined that its dynamic aerosol efficiency surpassed those of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus and Middle East respiratory syndrome. Although we performed experiment only once across several laboratories, our findings suggest retained infectivity and virion integrity for up to 16 hours in respirable-sized aerosols.
Collectively, these preliminary data suggest that SARS-CoV-2 is resilient in aerosol form and agree with conclusions reached in earlier studies of aerosol fitness (6). A clear limitation of the aerosol stability data is that we report only 1 measurement of the 16-h time point; future studies need to repeat these findings before any definitive conclusions are reached. Aerosol transmission of SARS-CoV-2 may be a more important exposure transmission pathway than previously considered (7). Our approach of quantitative measurement of infectivity of viral airborne efficiency augmented by assessment of virion morphology suggests that SARS-CoV-2 may be viable as an airborne pathogen. Humans produce aerosols continuously through normal respiration (8). Aerosol production increases during respiratory illnesses (9,10) and during louder-than-normal oration (11). A fraction of naturally generated aerosols falls within the size distribution used in our experimental studies (<5 μm), which leads us to conclude that SARS-CoV-2–infected persons may produce viral bioaerosols that remain infectious for long periods after production through human shedding and airborne transport.
The study is limited, and needs additional data (though it was reproduced across several labs). But the preliminary indications suggest that SARS-CoV-2 stays infectious in the air for up to 16 hours, and is likely airborne.
If this is the case, what how might it change recommended behavior? It seems obvious that masks would still be vital, even if they don't stop as much they aren't useless, being outside and father apart seems more important, and inside with others worse?
And it seems like all is dying, and would leave the world to mourn
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daveNYCWhy universe hate Waspinator?Registered Userregular
There's been a new study related to the stability of the virus in aerosols. Pre-publication journal article is available here, via the CDC's website.
Abstract
We aerosolized severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 and determined that its dynamic aerosol efficiency surpassed those of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus and Middle East respiratory syndrome. Although we performed experiment only once across several laboratories, our findings suggest retained infectivity and virion integrity for up to 16 hours in respirable-sized aerosols.
Collectively, these preliminary data suggest that SARS-CoV-2 is resilient in aerosol form and agree with conclusions reached in earlier studies of aerosol fitness (6). A clear limitation of the aerosol stability data is that we report only 1 measurement of the 16-h time point; future studies need to repeat these findings before any definitive conclusions are reached. Aerosol transmission of SARS-CoV-2 may be a more important exposure transmission pathway than previously considered (7). Our approach of quantitative measurement of infectivity of viral airborne efficiency augmented by assessment of virion morphology suggests that SARS-CoV-2 may be viable as an airborne pathogen. Humans produce aerosols continuously through normal respiration (8). Aerosol production increases during respiratory illnesses (9,10) and during louder-than-normal oration (11). A fraction of naturally generated aerosols falls within the size distribution used in our experimental studies (<5 μm), which leads us to conclude that SARS-CoV-2–infected persons may produce viral bioaerosols that remain infectious for long periods after production through human shedding and airborne transport.
The study is limited, and needs additional data (though it was reproduced across several labs). But the preliminary indications suggest that SARS-CoV-2 stays infectious in the air for up to 16 hours, and is likely airborne.
If this is the case, what how might it change recommended behavior? It seems obvious that masks would still be vital, even if they don't stop as much they aren't useless, being outside and father apart seems more important, and inside with others worse?
I don't think it changes the recommended behaviors that we on this board have generally decided are a good idea. WFH, Inside Bad, Masks Good. The problem, at least in the USA, isn't knowing what to do. There's been enough examples around the world and even in the USA since at least March for us to have that information. It's the lack of willingness to take those steps. See Climate Change, the NY Jets, and old school baseball scouts for similar examples.
I am a bit confused that seven months after this thing took off we're just now seeing a study on how this thing can spread through the air. I mean maybe there were other studies and they slipped under the radar, but I would have thought that one of the first things you'd do after isolating and being able to grow the damn thing would be to blast a bunch of it into the air and take measurements on how long it hangs around. It's depressing to consider how many people died from this because the initial recommendations for preventing transmission were focused on hand washing and face touching. Always good ideas, but it really seems like any sort of airborne (not the technical term airborne) transmission was an afterthought. Don't cough in someone's face, sure, but otherwise not a major issue. Asymptomatic spread is another thing that was dismissed early on too, which isn't great either.
I'm talking out of my ass here, but I sort of feel as though any disease that shows itself to be spreading as successfully as COVID-19 was doing back in February or similarly early should be considered having those choice traits that allow it to be such a successful disease. Maybe look at how quickly it's spreading and then come up with possible lists of abilities that would let it do so.
And to make this slightly more update related: 103 new cases in the Czech Republic yesterday, 12 of which were in Prague. So we're still hanging in there.
Shut up, Mr. Burton! You were not brought upon this world to get it!
Currently the two worst days for cases by date of specimen collected in North Carolina have been in roughly the past week, 7/6 (2353) and 7/7 (2363). The worst was 6/29 (2509), and the other two days are recent enough that not all tests should be assumed to have been completed.
Currently just over 1100 hospitalizations, and 78% of ICU beds are currently marked in use (73% of in-patient beds), with 91% of hospitals in NC reporting. There are still many, many beds that are unstaffed (900 ICU and 2400 in-patient) and not being counted in the total figure. Only just over a quarter of available ventilators are in use.
There’s been some talk about whether or not type O blood provides a level of protection against Covid, possibly due to clotting factors. This new paper as I understand basically says that O blood types don’t have any particular level of protection against Covid once they get it, but are less likely to get it. But: once they do have Covid, they’re more likely to become become super-spreaders. Basically, the virus ends up picking up the ABO incompatibility, creating bottlenecks in spread.
If this is true, it may affect vaccination strategy:
However, ABO-interference with virus transmission presents a unique and striking scenario that has not previously been modelled in detail, in which those most prone to infection are those least likely to pass it on, and vice versa.
For a hot minute back in March I thought we'd actually learned from Italy and people would wind up complaining that we overreacted for nothing :sad:
I mean, you’re half right.
Yeah, my piece of shit, Trumpy, Qanon-loving cousin is still talking about how the initial lockdowns were an overreaction (which he says is a good thing since it saved people!) but now that we’ve beaten the virus it’s time to get back to work and he’s soooooo worried about how kids won’t get socialized in the fall if they stay home.
To play the devil's advocate, I can see an argument that the initial round of lockdowns in early March were (in some / most places) an overreaction or could have been phased in much better without grinding the national economy to a halt for two months. There are a lot of places that had virtually no cases until after things began re-opening in late April / May that probably would have been fine with masking and ratcheting back to a mid-phase re-opening where limited non-essential businesses were open and small outdoor gatherings were permitted.
However, with testing where it was at in March / April (and shit, even today a lot of places) we simply didn't have the information to know which states / counties / regions had few enough cases that they didn't really need a full hard lockdown. There also wasn't really enough PPE for everyone in those areas to mask up all the time, even if a lot of people were doing makeshift masks.
I mean, in a sane world around mid-January when it was clear something big was going on and it wasn't going to be contained to Wuhan there should have been crash programs rolling out nationwide contact tracing and testing, along with manufacturing oodles of PPE for everyone. Also an education / planning / communication programs so people weren't making things up on the fly, and had an idea how much they should be locking down and when. There were a lot of unknowns about how COVID infects and the disease progresses, but there are some safe assumptions that we could have acted on and saved lots of lives.
So in a perfect world, he could kinda be right about that. But hindsight is 20/20 and we are far from a perfect world. People did the best they could with what little they had in the complete absence of national leadership.
The rest of that Trumpy bullshit is stupid as hell though.
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TetraNitroCubaneThe DjinneratorAt the bottom of a bottleRegistered Userregular
There's been a new study related to the stability of the virus in aerosols. Pre-publication journal article is available here, via the CDC's website.
Abstract
We aerosolized severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 and determined that its dynamic aerosol efficiency surpassed those of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus and Middle East respiratory syndrome. Although we performed experiment only once across several laboratories, our findings suggest retained infectivity and virion integrity for up to 16 hours in respirable-sized aerosols.
Collectively, these preliminary data suggest that SARS-CoV-2 is resilient in aerosol form and agree with conclusions reached in earlier studies of aerosol fitness (6). A clear limitation of the aerosol stability data is that we report only 1 measurement of the 16-h time point; future studies need to repeat these findings before any definitive conclusions are reached. Aerosol transmission of SARS-CoV-2 may be a more important exposure transmission pathway than previously considered (7). Our approach of quantitative measurement of infectivity of viral airborne efficiency augmented by assessment of virion morphology suggests that SARS-CoV-2 may be viable as an airborne pathogen. Humans produce aerosols continuously through normal respiration (8). Aerosol production increases during respiratory illnesses (9,10) and during louder-than-normal oration (11). A fraction of naturally generated aerosols falls within the size distribution used in our experimental studies (<5 μm), which leads us to conclude that SARS-CoV-2–infected persons may produce viral bioaerosols that remain infectious for long periods after production through human shedding and airborne transport.
The study is limited, and needs additional data (though it was reproduced across several labs). But the preliminary indications suggest that SARS-CoV-2 stays infectious in the air for up to 16 hours, and is likely airborne.
If this is the case, what how might it change recommended behavior? It seems obvious that masks would still be vital, even if they don't stop as much they aren't useless, being outside and father apart seems more important, and inside with others worse?
The takeaways have been known to those of us paying attention for a while now - But my hope is that more corporate and/or public facing entities will take note.
Basically, "six feet of distance" doesn't mean anything while indoors, and in heavily trafficked areas. Airflow is key to keeping any location safe. Stagnant air can remain infectious even hours after an individual walks through it, even if that individual is gone.
This means that, yes, even while you are alone, if you are indoors, you wear your fucking mask.
My apartment complex is connected via a series of indoor hallways. People seem to presume that, so long as no one else is in the hallway, they can demask. Not so, they could easily be making the problem worse by doing so.
The other takeaway that's going to be harder to act on is that, if these findings are accurate, then HVAC and connected ventilation systems are a tremendous risk. I would not be surprised if we see another case like the highrise apartment in China that got wickedly infected via SARS, when and if another sub-par drainage or vent system building gets infected.
There's been a new study related to the stability of the virus in aerosols. Pre-publication journal article is available here, via the CDC's website.
Abstract
We aerosolized severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 and determined that its dynamic aerosol efficiency surpassed those of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus and Middle East respiratory syndrome. Although we performed experiment only once across several laboratories, our findings suggest retained infectivity and virion integrity for up to 16 hours in respirable-sized aerosols.
Collectively, these preliminary data suggest that SARS-CoV-2 is resilient in aerosol form and agree with conclusions reached in earlier studies of aerosol fitness (6). A clear limitation of the aerosol stability data is that we report only 1 measurement of the 16-h time point; future studies need to repeat these findings before any definitive conclusions are reached. Aerosol transmission of SARS-CoV-2 may be a more important exposure transmission pathway than previously considered (7). Our approach of quantitative measurement of infectivity of viral airborne efficiency augmented by assessment of virion morphology suggests that SARS-CoV-2 may be viable as an airborne pathogen. Humans produce aerosols continuously through normal respiration (8). Aerosol production increases during respiratory illnesses (9,10) and during louder-than-normal oration (11). A fraction of naturally generated aerosols falls within the size distribution used in our experimental studies (<5 μm), which leads us to conclude that SARS-CoV-2–infected persons may produce viral bioaerosols that remain infectious for long periods after production through human shedding and airborne transport.
The study is limited, and needs additional data (though it was reproduced across several labs). But the preliminary indications suggest that SARS-CoV-2 stays infectious in the air for up to 16 hours, and is likely airborne.
If this is the case, what how might it change recommended behavior? It seems obvious that masks would still be vital, even if they don't stop as much they aren't useless, being outside and father apart seems more important, and inside with others worse?
The takeaways have been known to those of us paying attention for a while now - But my hope is that more corporate and/or public facing entities will take note.
Basically, "six feet of distance" doesn't mean anything while indoors, and in heavily trafficked areas. Airflow is key to keeping any location safe. Stagnant air can remain infectious even hours after an individual walks through it, even if that individual is gone.
This means that, yes, even while you are alone, if you are indoors, you wear your fucking mask.
My apartment complex is connected via a series of indoor hallways. People seem to presume that, so long as no one else is in the hallway, they can demask. Not so, they could easily be making the problem worse by doing so.
The other takeaway that's going to be harder to act on is that, if these findings are accurate, then HVAC and connected ventilation systems are a tremendous risk. I would not be surprised if we see another case like the highrise apartment in China that got wickedly infected via SARS, when and if another sub-par drainage or vent system building gets infected.
The looming question here is about the quality of masks we've been advocating. A bandana doesn't make a great filter but it does divert your exhalations pretty well. It'll do a good job of making it so the person you are talking to doesn't get a face full of the air coming out of your lungs. That air gets diverted to the side and then....hangs around? If you are just hanging out in a confined area with another person for long periods of times then it starts to be questionable what a cloth mask is doing and how safe that actually is. Which are big questions for the reopening of schools and offices.
Masks obvious do a huge amount to slow the spread, look at Japan for example, but I wonder how safe they actually make you in prolonged exposure environment.
There's been a new study related to the stability of the virus in aerosols. Pre-publication journal article is available here, via the CDC's website.
Abstract
We aerosolized severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 and determined that its dynamic aerosol efficiency surpassed those of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus and Middle East respiratory syndrome. Although we performed experiment only once across several laboratories, our findings suggest retained infectivity and virion integrity for up to 16 hours in respirable-sized aerosols.
Collectively, these preliminary data suggest that SARS-CoV-2 is resilient in aerosol form and agree with conclusions reached in earlier studies of aerosol fitness (6). A clear limitation of the aerosol stability data is that we report only 1 measurement of the 16-h time point; future studies need to repeat these findings before any definitive conclusions are reached. Aerosol transmission of SARS-CoV-2 may be a more important exposure transmission pathway than previously considered (7). Our approach of quantitative measurement of infectivity of viral airborne efficiency augmented by assessment of virion morphology suggests that SARS-CoV-2 may be viable as an airborne pathogen. Humans produce aerosols continuously through normal respiration (8). Aerosol production increases during respiratory illnesses (9,10) and during louder-than-normal oration (11). A fraction of naturally generated aerosols falls within the size distribution used in our experimental studies (<5 μm), which leads us to conclude that SARS-CoV-2–infected persons may produce viral bioaerosols that remain infectious for long periods after production through human shedding and airborne transport.
The study is limited, and needs additional data (though it was reproduced across several labs). But the preliminary indications suggest that SARS-CoV-2 stays infectious in the air for up to 16 hours, and is likely airborne.
If this is the case, what how might it change recommended behavior? It seems obvious that masks would still be vital, even if they don't stop as much they aren't useless, being outside and father apart seems more important, and inside with others worse?
The takeaways have been known to those of us paying attention for a while now - But my hope is that more corporate and/or public facing entities will take note.
Basically, "six feet of distance" doesn't mean anything while indoors, and in heavily trafficked areas. Airflow is key to keeping any location safe. Stagnant air can remain infectious even hours after an individual walks through it, even if that individual is gone.
This means that, yes, even while you are alone, if you are indoors, you wear your fucking mask.
My apartment complex is connected via a series of indoor hallways. People seem to presume that, so long as no one else is in the hallway, they can demask. Not so, they could easily be making the problem worse by doing so.
The other takeaway that's going to be harder to act on is that, if these findings are accurate, then HVAC and connected ventilation systems are a tremendous risk. I would not be surprised if we see another case like the highrise apartment in China that got wickedly infected via SARS, when and if another sub-par drainage or vent system building gets infected.
My counterpoint though is that literally everywhere other than China, including new zealand which eradicated the virus, has kept grocery stores open throughout the pandemic. In many of these places which have achieved supression of the virus, mask wearing was not enforced during a large fraction of the lockdown phase. In areas we've seen where super spreading has happened, there has almost always been some kind of 'enhancement' function like singing (choirs) or shouting (meat packing plants) or very high density and time exposure (bars and nightclubs)
The virus clearly can be airborne, and masks are critical, but the experience of this virus doesnt seem to suggest that this virus is like measles where someone can infect you by you walking into a room 2 hours after they left, or that keeping 6 feet apart indoors is irrelevant. There are places with decent control over the virus where schools are reopened and other indoor activities are allowed. If this was commonly spreading like measles, that just straight up wouldn't work. You'd get infections everywhere instantly.
Most of what we see seems to suggest that the virus can survive and be airborne but its not particularly great at doing that most of the time.
There’s been some talk about whether or not type O blood provides a level of protection against Covid, possibly due to clotting factors. This new paper as I understand basically says that O blood types don’t have any particular level of protection against Covid once they get it, but are less likely to get it. But: once they do have Covid, they’re more likely to become become super-spreaders. Basically, the virus ends up picking up the ABO incompatibility, creating bottlenecks in spread.
If this is true, it may affect vaccination strategy:
However, ABO-interference with virus transmission presents a unique and striking scenario that has not previously been modelled in detail, in which those most prone to infection are those least likely to pass it on, and vice versa.
This paper describes a theoretical model where that would be the case. Effectively he says, "here is a model of what it would mean if this was the case" and shows what it might look like. However, this isnt the only or most likely way to explain what we see in blood groups and the virus.
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Red Raevynbecause I only take Bubble BathsRegistered Userregular
There's been a new study related to the stability of the virus in aerosols. Pre-publication journal article is available here, via the CDC's website.
Abstract
We aerosolized severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 and determined that its dynamic aerosol efficiency surpassed those of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus and Middle East respiratory syndrome. Although we performed experiment only once across several laboratories, our findings suggest retained infectivity and virion integrity for up to 16 hours in respirable-sized aerosols.
Collectively, these preliminary data suggest that SARS-CoV-2 is resilient in aerosol form and agree with conclusions reached in earlier studies of aerosol fitness (6). A clear limitation of the aerosol stability data is that we report only 1 measurement of the 16-h time point; future studies need to repeat these findings before any definitive conclusions are reached. Aerosol transmission of SARS-CoV-2 may be a more important exposure transmission pathway than previously considered (7). Our approach of quantitative measurement of infectivity of viral airborne efficiency augmented by assessment of virion morphology suggests that SARS-CoV-2 may be viable as an airborne pathogen. Humans produce aerosols continuously through normal respiration (8). Aerosol production increases during respiratory illnesses (9,10) and during louder-than-normal oration (11). A fraction of naturally generated aerosols falls within the size distribution used in our experimental studies (<5 μm), which leads us to conclude that SARS-CoV-2–infected persons may produce viral bioaerosols that remain infectious for long periods after production through human shedding and airborne transport.
The study is limited, and needs additional data (though it was reproduced across several labs). But the preliminary indications suggest that SARS-CoV-2 stays infectious in the air for up to 16 hours, and is likely airborne.
If this is the case, what how might it change recommended behavior? It seems obvious that masks would still be vital, even if they don't stop as much they aren't useless, being outside and father apart seems more important, and inside with others worse?
The takeaways have been known to those of us paying attention for a while now - But my hope is that more corporate and/or public facing entities will take note.
Basically, "six feet of distance" doesn't mean anything while indoors, and in heavily trafficked areas. Airflow is key to keeping any location safe. Stagnant air can remain infectious even hours after an individual walks through it, even if that individual is gone.
This means that, yes, even while you are alone, if you are indoors, you wear your fucking mask.
My apartment complex is connected via a series of indoor hallways. People seem to presume that, so long as no one else is in the hallway, they can demask. Not so, they could easily be making the problem worse by doing so.
The other takeaway that's going to be harder to act on is that, if these findings are accurate, then HVAC and connected ventilation systems are a tremendous risk. I would not be surprised if we see another case like the highrise apartment in China that got wickedly infected via SARS, when and if another sub-par drainage or vent system building gets infected.
My counterpoint though is that literally everywhere other than China, including new zealand which eradicated the virus, has kept grocery stores open throughout the pandemic. In many of these places which have achieved supression of the virus, mask wearing was not enforced during a large fraction of the lockdown phase. In areas we've seen where super spreading has happened, there has almost always been some kind of 'enhancement' function like singing (choirs) or shouting (meat packing plants) or very high density and time exposure (bars and nightclubs)
The virus clearly can be airborne, and masks are critical, but the experience of this virus doesnt seem to suggest that this virus is like measles where someone can infect you by you walking into a room 2 hours after they left, or that keeping 6 feet apart indoors is irrelevant. There are places with decent control over the virus where schools are reopened and other indoor activities are allowed. If this was commonly spreading like measles, that just straight up wouldn't work. You'd get infections everywhere instantly.
Most of what we see seems to suggest that the virus can survive and be airborne but its not particularly great at doing that most of the time.
It's important to remember that it isn't like you're trying to avoid ever getting exposed to a single individual virus. It's about how much you're being exposed to for how long. So don't panic at the prospect that it's airborne (e.g. people wearing masks while exercising alone outdoors) but don't think that 6 feet of separation is some kind of golden buffer zone, either. I dug up this piece a relative shared a couple months ago that describes it well: https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them
Hospital data on coronavirus patients will now be rerouted to the Trump administration instead of first being sent to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Department of Health and Human Services confirmed to CNN on Tuesday.
They really don't get that the numbers aren't the problem. If your family/friend/co-worker/favorite celebrity dies from COVID, numbers are irrelavant. If multiple people you know die of COVID, numbers are irrelevant. If you get COVID. survive and get saddled with long-term health problems, numbers are irrelevant.
There's been a new study related to the stability of the virus in aerosols. Pre-publication journal article is available here, via the CDC's website.
Abstract
We aerosolized severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 and determined that its dynamic aerosol efficiency surpassed those of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus and Middle East respiratory syndrome. Although we performed experiment only once across several laboratories, our findings suggest retained infectivity and virion integrity for up to 16 hours in respirable-sized aerosols.
Collectively, these preliminary data suggest that SARS-CoV-2 is resilient in aerosol form and agree with conclusions reached in earlier studies of aerosol fitness (6). A clear limitation of the aerosol stability data is that we report only 1 measurement of the 16-h time point; future studies need to repeat these findings before any definitive conclusions are reached. Aerosol transmission of SARS-CoV-2 may be a more important exposure transmission pathway than previously considered (7). Our approach of quantitative measurement of infectivity of viral airborne efficiency augmented by assessment of virion morphology suggests that SARS-CoV-2 may be viable as an airborne pathogen. Humans produce aerosols continuously through normal respiration (8). Aerosol production increases during respiratory illnesses (9,10) and during louder-than-normal oration (11). A fraction of naturally generated aerosols falls within the size distribution used in our experimental studies (<5 μm), which leads us to conclude that SARS-CoV-2–infected persons may produce viral bioaerosols that remain infectious for long periods after production through human shedding and airborne transport.
The study is limited, and needs additional data (though it was reproduced across several labs). But the preliminary indications suggest that SARS-CoV-2 stays infectious in the air for up to 16 hours, and is likely airborne.
If this is the case, what how might it change recommended behavior? It seems obvious that masks would still be vital, even if they don't stop as much they aren't useless, being outside and father apart seems more important, and inside with others worse?
The takeaways have been known to those of us paying attention for a while now - But my hope is that more corporate and/or public facing entities will take note.
Basically, "six feet of distance" doesn't mean anything while indoors, and in heavily trafficked areas. Airflow is key to keeping any location safe. Stagnant air can remain infectious even hours after an individual walks through it, even if that individual is gone.
This means that, yes, even while you are alone, if you are indoors, you wear your fucking mask.
My apartment complex is connected via a series of indoor hallways. People seem to presume that, so long as no one else is in the hallway, they can demask. Not so, they could easily be making the problem worse by doing so.
The other takeaway that's going to be harder to act on is that, if these findings are accurate, then HVAC and connected ventilation systems are a tremendous risk. I would not be surprised if we see another case like the highrise apartment in China that got wickedly infected via SARS, when and if another sub-par drainage or vent system building gets infected.
My counterpoint though is that literally everywhere other than China, including new zealand which eradicated the virus, has kept grocery stores open throughout the pandemic. In many of these places which have achieved supression of the virus, mask wearing was not enforced during a large fraction of the lockdown phase. In areas we've seen where super spreading has happened, there has almost always been some kind of 'enhancement' function like singing (choirs) or shouting (meat packing plants) or very high density and time exposure (bars and nightclubs)
The virus clearly can be airborne, and masks are critical, but the experience of this virus doesnt seem to suggest that this virus is like measles where someone can infect you by you walking into a room 2 hours after they left, or that keeping 6 feet apart indoors is irrelevant. There are places with decent control over the virus where schools are reopened and other indoor activities are allowed. If this was commonly spreading like measles, that just straight up wouldn't work. You'd get infections everywhere instantly.
Most of what we see seems to suggest that the virus can survive and be airborne but its not particularly great at doing that most of the time.
It's important to remember that it isn't like you're trying to avoid ever getting exposed to a single individual virus. It's about how much you're being exposed to for how long. So don't panic at the prospect that it's airborne (e.g. people wearing masks while exercising alone outdoors) but don't think that 6 feet of separation is some kind of golden buffer zone, either. I dug up this piece a relative shared a couple months ago that describes it well: https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them
That was kinda the point I was trying to make, but your article made it better. Simply because the virus can be airborne, doesn't mean that it is equally capable of doing that in every environment, or that having the capability to do that is some kind of binary on/off thing. Measles/Not Measles etc.
Every large serology study has put the lie to the "oh everyone probably had it" thing, at least.
One of the flu strains this year was H1N1 (yes, that H1N1), and it was a real nasty bite even if you got the shot.
They are all coming out to the same sort of thing, want to know how many people had it in a diverse population with decent medical records? Multiply number of deaths by something between 100 and 150. Its not the utterly catastrophic news which would be, "Noone had it beyond those detected", but, its not over. Not anywhere.
Ya this has been my worry in B.C. the whole time. Our first reopened major phase this week brought 4 separate major outbreaks to Kelowna. All from private tourist parties.
They really don't get that the numbers aren't the problem. If your family/friend/co-worker/favorite celebrity dies from COVID, numbers are irrelavant. If multiple people you know die of COVID, numbers are irrelevant. If you get COVID. survive and get saddled with long-term health problems, numbers are irrelevant.
Remember when we all laughed at Baghdad Bob?
Numbers are ABSOLUTELY the problem, from their frame of reference. Numbers are starting to hit that point that they are beginning to have a bigger and bigger effect on polls. Redirecting the data now will let them get messaging straighter early enough people will start forgetting that it's going through an unreliable agency LOOOONG before November. Actual deaths? Pfft, none of them care about that.
They really don't get that the numbers aren't the problem. If your family/friend/co-worker/favorite celebrity dies from COVID, numbers are irrelavant. If multiple people you know die of COVID, numbers are irrelevant. If you get COVID. survive and get saddled with long-term health problems, numbers are irrelevant.
Remember when we all laughed at Baghdad Bob?
Numbers are ABSOLUTELY the problem, from their frame of reference. Numbers are starting to hit that point that they are beginning to have a bigger and bigger effect on polls. Redirecting the data now will let them get messaging straighter early enough people will start forgetting that it's going through an unreliable agency LOOOONG before November. Actual deaths? Pfft, none of them care about that.
In Illinois, Gov. Pritzker outlined a plan to stem the tide of COVID resurgence in surrounding areas, including requiring self-quarantine if travelling to Illinois from any of 17 other US States, and breaking down the state into 11 smaller regions (instead of 4 large regions) to help provide more precision restrictions in limited outbreaks: https://www2.illinois.gov/Pages/news-item.aspx?ReleaseID=21818
ceresWhen the last moon is cast over the last star of morningAnd the future has past without even a last desperate warningRegistered User, Moderatormod
I guess ProPublica no longer reports on states' ICU bed availability because the CDC doesn't collect the info anymore.
Statewide hospital occupancy rates are 79 percent while Intensive care units are at an occupancy rate of 77 percent.. About 38 percent of the ventilators statewide are in use right now for all patients.
And it seems like all is dying, and would leave the world to mourn
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@Paladin Sorry...I don't know how to parse anything in here. That's not a criticism or anything, I just don't comprehend it.
For instance, are you saying that 55% of confirmed COVID-19 cases resulted in anosmia? Loss of sense of smell? How much of that is total vs. partial and permanent vs. temporary? Or are you saying that 55% of current cases of anosmia are linked back to COVID-19? Or what?
The former, but bear in mind that was one sample of one study. The real incidence rate in the general population may be different but somewhere in the ballpark.
Doc: That's right, twenty five years into the future. I've always dreamed on seeing the future, looking beyond my years, seeing the progress of mankind. I'll also be able to see who wins the next twenty-five world series.
New day, new records in both case count and hospitalizations. What's got me curious now is that NC's data allows you to also view cases by date of specimen collected. It's not as pretty and impactful of a line but it tells an interesting story. On 6/29, 2506 specimen were collected that have since come back positive. If it takes a week to get your results, that means all those people found out they were positive right after the holiday weekend. Which is, you know, bad. Now, NC is apparently home to one of the larger US-based testing companies (LabCorp), as well as having a lot of hospitals in their denser regions (RTP especially), so it might not actually take that long here? But either way that's not great.
Italy? Hell, the US didn't learn from New York City, in its own country, where most of the biggest media is centralized.
Speaking of, Texas has also hit the point of refrigerated morgue trucks. If you told me Florida also has morgue trucks but the government there is covering it up along with all the other things they're covering up, I would not be the least surprised.
There are some reports from Iran that they're also going through a second wave, even rougher than the first, and the first was nasty. Again, it's hard to say between the government denials and with testing having hit a plateau back in April and never really increasing since then. It's also possible though that since many of these reports are coming from more remote areas it's just the same effect we're seeing the US: it takes a while for the exponential increases to start being visible, so it's less a "second" wave and more the neverending first wave reaching outlying regions where medical care was always more limited but is now unavailable.
South Africa continues to explode with COVID-19. Cases have doubled in two weeks while the positivity rate also continues to rise (now over 10%). South Africa is set to blow past the UK in total cases within a few days. The death rate appears to be low right now, but that might also be a factor of the rapid growth in cases and the lag time to deaths. Just like with other places with exploding cases that have some sort of open media reporting news, we'll see in about two weeks.
It'll be interesting to see if our increased testing lowers our fatality rate out of confirmed cases. A couple weeks ago we were around 30-40k new cases country wide, and yet we're only seeing 500-1000 deaths per day now. Putting it at closer to 2 percent. Whereas before I think we were closer to 4? We're also developing better treatments. We'll see.
It’s just a combination of better testing and lag between infections and deaths. There is a better treatment effect too, but, the more testing effect dwarfs it.
50% will show symptoms after 5-6 days, 95% will show symptoms after 14 days. Lancet
Recovery is roughly 20-21 days after illness onset, death occurs 18-19 days (think these numbers are median, Lancet article here) after onset. I believe these were all for hospitalized people.
So the deaths we're seeing today are from the cases that were discovered roughly three weeks to one month ago. Give or take a chunk of days here or there because statistics and stuff.
A four week delay seems to be enough to break a lot of people's concept of cause and effect.
Sri Lanka has basically admitted that their official numbers are a vast undercount. They had reopened schools, saying that everything was fine in the country with less than 3000 cases, but have shut them back down a week later after they already started to see a surge of new cases. Cases have been detected in villages across the nation, indicating a widespread epidemic, and half the residents of a 1000+ drug rehab facility turned out to be positive. There are elections scheduled for a month from now, so the Sri Lankan government has started some postal voting for poll officers though they haven't stated if they will expand that to everyone for the election (which they should).
Another country with likely vastly undercounted cases: Madagascar. Officially, about 4000 cases total. Twenty seven of those are in the national government and two of those lawmakers have already died. It's giving me Iran vibes the case numbers are low but the infections are far more widespread to the point that notable numbers of high officials are dying too. Also, their president is pitching some local herbal remedy as a cure, because every bad politician in the world is fishing for some easy magic silver bullet to fix the problem so they don't have to put in effort.
Finally, Turkmenistan clearly has outbreaks if not a full blown national epidemic. The country is still as denialist as North Korea (which also undoubtedly has a national epidemic) but is now recommending that everyone wear masks - because of the dust. So much dust, you can't see it, but it's definitely worse than usual and people need to protect their respiratory tracts.
We're having to read tea leaves now when there should be good information. I no longer wonder at the wide variations of fatality estimates of prior pandemics and epidemics.
Yeah, my piece of shit, Trumpy, Qanon-loving cousin is still talking about how the initial lockdowns were an overreaction (which he says is a good thing since it saved people!) but now that we’ve beaten the virus it’s time to get back to work and he’s soooooo worried about how kids won’t get socialized in the fall if they stay home.
Steam: Elvenshae // PSN: Elvenshae // WotC: Elvenshae
Wilds of Aladrion: [https://forums.penny-arcade.com/discussion/comment/43159014/#Comment_43159014]Ellandryn[/url]
The study is limited, and needs additional data (though it was reproduced across several labs). But the preliminary indications suggest that SARS-CoV-2 stays infectious in the air for up to 16 hours, and is likely airborne.
If this is the case, what how might it change recommended behavior? It seems obvious that masks would still be vital, even if they don't stop as much they aren't useless, being outside and father apart seems more important, and inside with others worse?
I don't think it changes the recommended behaviors that we on this board have generally decided are a good idea. WFH, Inside Bad, Masks Good. The problem, at least in the USA, isn't knowing what to do. There's been enough examples around the world and even in the USA since at least March for us to have that information. It's the lack of willingness to take those steps. See Climate Change, the NY Jets, and old school baseball scouts for similar examples.
I am a bit confused that seven months after this thing took off we're just now seeing a study on how this thing can spread through the air. I mean maybe there were other studies and they slipped under the radar, but I would have thought that one of the first things you'd do after isolating and being able to grow the damn thing would be to blast a bunch of it into the air and take measurements on how long it hangs around. It's depressing to consider how many people died from this because the initial recommendations for preventing transmission were focused on hand washing and face touching. Always good ideas, but it really seems like any sort of airborne (not the technical term airborne) transmission was an afterthought. Don't cough in someone's face, sure, but otherwise not a major issue. Asymptomatic spread is another thing that was dismissed early on too, which isn't great either.
I'm talking out of my ass here, but I sort of feel as though any disease that shows itself to be spreading as successfully as COVID-19 was doing back in February or similarly early should be considered having those choice traits that allow it to be such a successful disease. Maybe look at how quickly it's spreading and then come up with possible lists of abilities that would let it do so.
And to make this slightly more update related: 103 new cases in the Czech Republic yesterday, 12 of which were in Prague. So we're still hanging in there.
Currently just over 1100 hospitalizations, and 78% of ICU beds are currently marked in use (73% of in-patient beds), with 91% of hospitals in NC reporting. There are still many, many beds that are unstaffed (900 ICU and 2400 in-patient) and not being counted in the total figure. Only just over a quarter of available ventilators are in use.
There’s been some talk about whether or not type O blood provides a level of protection against Covid, possibly due to clotting factors. This new paper as I understand basically says that O blood types don’t have any particular level of protection against Covid once they get it, but are less likely to get it. But: once they do have Covid, they’re more likely to become become super-spreaders. Basically, the virus ends up picking up the ABO incompatibility, creating bottlenecks in spread.
If this is true, it may affect vaccination strategy:
Thread on reddit
No, the slightest breeze could...
Indestructible...
To play the devil's advocate, I can see an argument that the initial round of lockdowns in early March were (in some / most places) an overreaction or could have been phased in much better without grinding the national economy to a halt for two months. There are a lot of places that had virtually no cases until after things began re-opening in late April / May that probably would have been fine with masking and ratcheting back to a mid-phase re-opening where limited non-essential businesses were open and small outdoor gatherings were permitted.
However, with testing where it was at in March / April (and shit, even today a lot of places) we simply didn't have the information to know which states / counties / regions had few enough cases that they didn't really need a full hard lockdown. There also wasn't really enough PPE for everyone in those areas to mask up all the time, even if a lot of people were doing makeshift masks.
I mean, in a sane world around mid-January when it was clear something big was going on and it wasn't going to be contained to Wuhan there should have been crash programs rolling out nationwide contact tracing and testing, along with manufacturing oodles of PPE for everyone. Also an education / planning / communication programs so people weren't making things up on the fly, and had an idea how much they should be locking down and when. There were a lot of unknowns about how COVID infects and the disease progresses, but there are some safe assumptions that we could have acted on and saved lots of lives.
So in a perfect world, he could kinda be right about that. But hindsight is 20/20 and we are far from a perfect world. People did the best they could with what little they had in the complete absence of national leadership.
The rest of that Trumpy bullshit is stupid as hell though.
The takeaways have been known to those of us paying attention for a while now - But my hope is that more corporate and/or public facing entities will take note.
Basically, "six feet of distance" doesn't mean anything while indoors, and in heavily trafficked areas. Airflow is key to keeping any location safe. Stagnant air can remain infectious even hours after an individual walks through it, even if that individual is gone.
This means that, yes, even while you are alone, if you are indoors, you wear your fucking mask.
My apartment complex is connected via a series of indoor hallways. People seem to presume that, so long as no one else is in the hallway, they can demask. Not so, they could easily be making the problem worse by doing so.
The other takeaway that's going to be harder to act on is that, if these findings are accurate, then HVAC and connected ventilation systems are a tremendous risk. I would not be surprised if we see another case like the highrise apartment in China that got wickedly infected via SARS, when and if another sub-par drainage or vent system building gets infected.
The looming question here is about the quality of masks we've been advocating. A bandana doesn't make a great filter but it does divert your exhalations pretty well. It'll do a good job of making it so the person you are talking to doesn't get a face full of the air coming out of your lungs. That air gets diverted to the side and then....hangs around? If you are just hanging out in a confined area with another person for long periods of times then it starts to be questionable what a cloth mask is doing and how safe that actually is. Which are big questions for the reopening of schools and offices.
Masks obvious do a huge amount to slow the spread, look at Japan for example, but I wonder how safe they actually make you in prolonged exposure environment.
My counterpoint though is that literally everywhere other than China, including new zealand which eradicated the virus, has kept grocery stores open throughout the pandemic. In many of these places which have achieved supression of the virus, mask wearing was not enforced during a large fraction of the lockdown phase. In areas we've seen where super spreading has happened, there has almost always been some kind of 'enhancement' function like singing (choirs) or shouting (meat packing plants) or very high density and time exposure (bars and nightclubs)
The virus clearly can be airborne, and masks are critical, but the experience of this virus doesnt seem to suggest that this virus is like measles where someone can infect you by you walking into a room 2 hours after they left, or that keeping 6 feet apart indoors is irrelevant. There are places with decent control over the virus where schools are reopened and other indoor activities are allowed. If this was commonly spreading like measles, that just straight up wouldn't work. You'd get infections everywhere instantly.
Most of what we see seems to suggest that the virus can survive and be airborne but its not particularly great at doing that most of the time.
This paper describes a theoretical model where that would be the case. Effectively he says, "here is a model of what it would mean if this was the case" and shows what it might look like. However, this isnt the only or most likely way to explain what we see in blood groups and the virus.
https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them
https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/14/politics/trump-administration-coronavirus-hospital-data-cdc/index.html
CNN is a news agency
Remember when we all laughed at Baghdad Bob?
That was kinda the point I was trying to make, but your article made it better. Simply because the virus can be airborne, doesn't mean that it is equally capable of doing that in every environment, or that having the capability to do that is some kind of binary on/off thing. Measles/Not Measles etc.
Tweeter is a reporter with CBC news.
One of the flu strains this year was H1N1 (yes, that H1N1), and it was a real nasty bite even if you got the shot.
They are all coming out to the same sort of thing, want to know how many people had it in a diverse population with decent medical records? Multiply number of deaths by something between 100 and 150. Its not the utterly catastrophic news which would be, "Noone had it beyond those detected", but, its not over. Not anywhere.
Ya this has been my worry in B.C. the whole time. Our first reopened major phase this week brought 4 separate major outbreaks to Kelowna. All from private tourist parties.
Numbers are ABSOLUTELY the problem, from their frame of reference. Numbers are starting to hit that point that they are beginning to have a bigger and bigger effect on polls. Redirecting the data now will let them get messaging straighter early enough people will start forgetting that it's going through an unreliable agency LOOOONG before November. Actual deaths? Pfft, none of them care about that.
Until those deaths are people they know.
worthless
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/07/15/oklahoma-kevin-stitt-coronavirus/
But you know who does...........