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Updates on [SARS2/covid-19] (reboot)

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Posts

  • CorvusCorvus . VancouverRegistered User regular
    Phoenix-D wrote: »
    Oregon appears to be doing the LALAALA CAN'T HEAR YOU approach to making sure restaurants are safe to be open

    https://www.opb.org/article/2020/08/07/bar-restaurant-coronavirus-safe-oregon/
    There seems to be something unique about the bars and restaurants in Oregon: Unlike those in other states and countries besieged by the coronavirus pandemic, Oregon’s indoor eating and drinking establishments don’t appear to be risky places to catch COVID-19.

    “In our data, there is no clear evidence of significant transmission in bars or restaurants,” Oregon state epidemiologist Dean Sidelinger said to members of the media in July when a reporter asked if it was safe to keep bars open.

    but
    “The fact is, we aren’t really quantifying it,” said Ann Thomas, a senior health advisor at the Oregon Health Authority.

    No evidence because they aren't collecting any.

    3monkeys.jpg

    Did you mean 12 Monkies? :bigfrown:

    :so_raven:
  • MorganVMorganV Registered User regular
    edited August 2020
    Kipling217 wrote: »
    daveNYC wrote: »
    tbloxham wrote: »
    MorganV wrote: »
    Echo wrote: »
    I don't have any non-Swedish links, but we just hit zero daily deaths for the first time since this crap started.

    Wow. Gotta ask, what happened?

    Cause Sweden was a relative shitstorm early on. Still currently 8th worse in deaths per million, but nowhere near high enough that the "herd immunity" threshold has been reached.

    The swedish outbreak was never really that much worse than many other places in Europe, just worse than its Nordic neighbors. So R was never that high in sweden due to high compliance with the recommended (but not enforced) behavioral standards.

    Due to R in sweden probably only being like, 1.x or something once they brought in the first recommendations, either swedes got sick of everyone saying how terrible they were (or got frightened) and started behaving a little better (which lowered R below 1) or R with their behaviour was only like 1.1 or something, so once 10% of people were infected (especially if those people were the most likely to be exposed) then that might be enough to cut R below 1.

    Herd immunity threshold is typically presented as an absolute, but its always a function of behavior of the population.

    In cases per 100k they’re in third place in Europe. They’ve got about 20% more than Spain and near double Italy on the same stat. They’re doing worse than most countries in Europe, they just happen to be doing ludicrously awful compared to their close neighbors.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1110187/coronavirus-incidence-europe-by-country/

    Man, Sweden is doing shit and no its not just because they count deaths in old folks homes. Pretty much every Nordic Country has checked that. Sweden has a higher infection rate and mortality rate then the rest of the Nordic Countries combined(Iceland excepted).

    This is what happens when you decide that Herd Immunity is the end all, be all.

    Don't get distracted by running totals as the be all and end all.
    EDIT: Example, San Marino still has the highest death per X population, but hasn't had a death since May.

    Sweden did have a horrific start to things, but after a horrific April with regards deaths, they appear to be pulling their shit together.
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

    Though, they seem to have a weirdness with their daily death rate spiking earlier than their daily caseload. Significant deaths when their caseload was high, large number of cases when deaths approach zero.

    MorganV on
  • LodbrokLodbrok Registered User regular
    Regarding the situation in Sweden, it seems that it is now mainly young people unlikely to get very sick and die from it that are responsible for the newer cases... which doesn't surprise me, people have really started to slack on how careful they are now that summer is here. Which probably is not terrible as long as we are talking outdoor activities, but I wonder what it will be like in a few months when fall is here. Point being, it seems that it's a different demographic being hit now, which may explain the much lower death rates.

    But, the Swedish response has, indeed, been absolutely shit from the start to the present day. If it was up to me the people responsible would be in jail... but I guess that seldom happens in the world we live in, having to take responsibility for your actions and face consequences.

    Here is a funny thing I just found out; BOTH my parents, who are approaching 80 and are definitively in a high-risk group, has tested positive for antibodies. Neither of them were terrible sick, just a persistent cough and fever for a few days, go figure. I'd really like to know why some people are hit so hard by this disease, while others just shrug it of.

  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    Lodbrok wrote: »
    Regarding the situation in Sweden, it seems that it is now mainly young people unlikely to get very sick and die from it that are responsible for the newer cases... which doesn't surprise me, people have really started to slack on how careful they are now that summer is here. Which probably is not terrible as long as we are talking outdoor activities, but I wonder what it will be like in a few months when fall is here. Point being, it seems that it's a different demographic being hit now, which may explain the much lower death rates.

    But, the Swedish response has, indeed, been absolutely shit from the start to the present day. If it was up to me the people responsible would be in jail... but I guess that seldom happens in the world we live in, having to take responsibility for your actions and face consequences.

    Here is a funny thing I just found out; BOTH my parents, who are approaching 80 and are definitively in a high-risk group, has tested positive for antibodies. Neither of them were terrible sick, just a persistent cough and fever for a few days, go figure. I'd really like to know why some people are hit so hard by this disease, while others just shrug it of.

    This is actually more common with viruses than you think. Polio has about 75% asymptomatic, dengue has a high asymptomatic rate too. Other coronaviruses are also frequently asymptomatic.

    "That is cool" - Abraham Lincoln
  • MayabirdMayabird Pecking at the keyboardRegistered User regular
    Mexico, over 50k deaths officially. Brazil, over 100k deaths officially. Both of these are known to be undercounts. The US is roundabouts 165,000 official deaths (and 5 million official cases), which is also a known undercount. Adjusted for population growth, the US has reached the total national deaths for the 1968 flu pandemic (the Hong Kong flu) and will continue to blow past that, because SARS2 is worse than the flu.

    India has just had a streak of bad events. That plane that split apart after overshooting the runway, killing many of the passengers and one of the pilots? A repatriation flight, bringing back citizens wanting to come home due to the pandemic. Elsewhere, an ICU carrying for COVID-19 patients caught fire, causing eight deaths and a hotel being used as a quarantine facility caught fire, causing at least eleven deaths.

  • lonelyahavalonelyahava Call me Ahava ~~She/Her~~ Move to New ZealandRegistered User regular
    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/423305/watch-live-prime-minister-and-director-general-of-health-hold-media-briefing

    Four cases out of isolation. One family. No known contacts.

    Auckland is at level 3 from noon tomorrow, the rest of the country is at level 2.

    We knew it was inevitable.

  • MazzyxMazzyx Comedy Gold Registered User regular
    Big Ten becomes first major college football conference to cancel fall season
    The Big Ten Conference has postponed the 2020 football season because of safety concerns stemming from the novel coronavirus pandemic, the league announced Tuesday. The Big Ten is the first of college football’s elite Power Five conferences to decide against playing football this fall.

    After sports halted in March, college athletic departments and their conferences have gradually moved toward returning to competition this fall. But the number of coronavirus cases in the United States began rising in June and multiple schools dealt with outbreaks within their football programs even before formal practices had begun.

    The conference hopes to hold a football season in the spring. The Big Ten has not made a decision regarding winter sports, such as men’s and women’s basketball, which begin their seasons in November.

    That is the first to fall. This is going to be very interesting.

    u7stthr17eud.png
  • ceresceres When the last moon is cast over the last star of morning And the future has past without even a last desperate warningRegistered User, Moderator mod
    No one watches college football anway. I think it got me coffee once.

    And it seems like all is dying, and would leave the world to mourn
  • enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    PAC-12 is out as well.

    Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
  • MorganVMorganV Registered User regular
    ceres wrote: »
    No one watches college football anway. I think it got me coffee once.

    Oh, I can see this having the opposite effect. Trump's gonna fucking rail against this, like it was Kaepernick kneeling on the American flag. This is going to be the thing he hangs his election on, that if it wasn't for the "liberal left/cancel culture" and the fear institutions have of them, then we'd have football this year.

    Elect Donald Trump, and we can say Merry Christmas have football again.

  • I ZimbraI Zimbra Worst song, played on ugliest guitar Registered User regular
    MorganV wrote: »
    ceres wrote: »
    No one watches college football anway. I think it got me coffee once.

    Oh, I can see this having the opposite effect. Trump's gonna fucking rail against this, like it was Kaepernick kneeling on the American flag. This is going to be the thing he hangs his election on, that if it wasn't for the "liberal left/cancel culture" and the fear institutions have of them, then we'd have football this year.

    Elect Donald Trump, and we can say Merry Christmas have football again.

    I don't think reminding people of the shitty job his administration is doing on Covid is going to be a winning strategy for him.

  • TaramoorTaramoor Storyteller Registered User regular
    I Zimbra wrote: »
    MorganV wrote: »
    ceres wrote: »
    No one watches college football anway. I think it got me coffee once.

    Oh, I can see this having the opposite effect. Trump's gonna fucking rail against this, like it was Kaepernick kneeling on the American flag. This is going to be the thing he hangs his election on, that if it wasn't for the "liberal left/cancel culture" and the fear institutions have of them, then we'd have football this year.

    Elect Donald Trump, and we can say Merry Christmas have football again.

    I don't think reminding people of the shitty job his administration is doing on Covid is going to be a winning strategy for him.

    It's not him whose done a shitty job, it's everybody else conspiring together to get sick and die just to make him look bad.

  • MorganVMorganV Registered User regular
    Taramoor wrote: »
    I Zimbra wrote: »
    MorganV wrote: »
    ceres wrote: »
    No one watches college football anway. I think it got me coffee once.

    Oh, I can see this having the opposite effect. Trump's gonna fucking rail against this, like it was Kaepernick kneeling on the American flag. This is going to be the thing he hangs his election on, that if it wasn't for the "liberal left/cancel culture" and the fear institutions have of them, then we'd have football this year.

    Elect Donald Trump, and we can say Merry Christmas have football again.

    I don't think reminding people of the shitty job his administration is doing on Covid is going to be a winning strategy for him.

    It's not him whose done a shitty job, it's everybody else conspiring together to get sick and die just to make him look bad.

    “He’s not a preventable loss,” Trump will say. “He was a preventable loss because he died of corona. I like people who don't die of corona.”

  • MayabirdMayabird Pecking at the keyboardRegistered User regular
    I'm going to talk about the Sturgis motorcycle rally. Did you assume it was a shitshow of a superspreader event? Did you guess that it would somehow be worse than you were expecting?
    On Sunday, Pinard said he visited a local bar but left after people there were participating in a "sneeze contest."

    "It was to see who can sneeze the furthest out," he said. "People were laughing and applauding. I said what the heck, they think it's fake," Pinard said, referring to COVID-19.

    Apparently someone told Gov. Sununu that everybody in New Hampshire was terrified of when the inevitably infected bikers come rolling from Sturgis into Laconia Motorcycle Week at the end of August because masks are now required at all large scheduled gatherings in the state. Enforcement will hold hosts and organizers of events accountable.
    "Sturgis was a clear warning sign to us," Sununu said. "I don't think anyone saw the photos out of Sturgis and thought, 'That looks safe.'"

    The second link follows that quote with picture of a bunch of unmasked people cheering and yelling in an indoor concert in Sturgis.

  • RingoRingo He/Him a distinct lack of substanceRegistered User regular
    Wooooo, Sturgis!

    Yeah, that is exactly the kind of stupidity that Sturgis caters to, pursuing safety and security is for the weak. Ride Free *and* Die!

    Sterica wrote: »
    I know my last visit to my grandpa on his deathbed was to find out how the whole Nazi werewolf thing turned out.
    Edcrab's Exigency RPG
  • MorganVMorganV Registered User regular
    Looks like Duterte is having reservations about Putin's "vaccine".

    https://www.news.com.au/world/europe/russias-coronavirus-vaccine-philippines-president-duterte-backflips-on-vaccination-plan/news-story/983aa7da1f3be49956a01eb9ac1755c9

    And I was under the impression that the Russians were pushing for a much earlier release, but if the Philippines aren't looking to approve it until at least April 2021, then I'm not sure what's so special here. Aren't other lest suspect vaccines due to conclude Phase 3 about or before then anyway?

  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    https://www.sfgate.com/shopping/article/neck-gaiters-arent-worse-than-no-mask-covid-15484868.php

    There’s been a lot in the news lately about how neck gaiters are somehow worse than no mask due the perception that the duke study showed they had some kind of magic aerosolizing ability. The author of that study says that while other masks are obviously better, the gaiter they tested was both very thin, and there was no reason to believe it was worse than no mask at all (which is absurd on the face of it because Covid19 is sometimes aerosolized but always infectious via spit and droplets). In their eyes the study showed you should replace very thin material masks with something better because there are better alternatives, not because the poor choices are sometimes worse than nothing.

    "That is cool" - Abraham Lincoln
  • VeeveeVeevee WisconsinRegistered User regular
    edited August 2020
    Darn drafts.
    tbloxham wrote: »
    https://www.sfgate.com/shopping/article/neck-gaiters-arent-worse-than-no-mask-covid-15484868.php

    There’s been a lot in the news lately about how neck gaiters are somehow worse than no mask due the perception that the duke study showed they had some kind of magic aerosolizing ability. The author of that study says that while other masks are obviously better, the gaiter they tested was both very thin, and there was no reason to believe it was worse than no mask at all (which is absurd on the face of it because Covid19 is sometimes aerosolized but always infectious via spit and droplets). In their eyes the study showed you should replace very thin material masks with something better because there are better alternatives, not because the poor choices are sometimes worse than nothing.

    If there is no reason to believe the fleece gaiter is worse than no mask, then why did they state in their study that it might be?

    https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/08/07/sciadv.abd3083
    We noticed that speaking through some masks (particularly the neck fleece) seemed to disperse the largest droplets into a multitude of smaller droplets (see Supplementary Fig. S5), which explains the apparent increase in droplet count relative to no mask in that case. Considering that smaller particles are airborne longer than large droplets (larger droplets sink faster), the use of such a mask might be counterproductive.

    Veevee on
  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    Veevee wrote: »
    Fencingsax wrote: »

    There was a hearing today in Congress and this exact news story was brought up. The assistant secretary of HHS said they were closing only 13 sites that were not actually needed. Not sure how true that is, but that was his response.
    tbloxham wrote: »
    https://www.sfgate.com/shopping/article/neck-gaiters-arent-worse-than-no-mask-covid-15484868.php

    There’s been a lot in the news lately about how neck gaiters are somehow worse than no mask due the perception that the duke study showed they had some kind of magic aerosolizing ability. The author of that study says that while other masks are obviously better, the gaiter they tested was both very thin, and there was no reason to believe it was worse than no mask at all (which is absurd on the face of it because Covid19 is sometimes aerosolized but always infectious via spit and droplets). In their eyes the study showed you should replace very thin material masks with something better because there are better alternatives, not because the poor choices are sometimes worse than nothing.

    If there is no reason to believe the fleece gaiter is worse than no mask, then why did they state in their study that it might be?

    https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/08/07/sciadv.abd3083
    We noticed that speaking through some masks (particularly the neck fleece) seemed to disperse the largest droplets into a multitude of smaller droplets (see Supplementary Fig. S5), which explains the apparent increase in droplet count relative to no mask in that case. Considering that smaller particles are airborne longer than large droplets (larger droplets sink faster), the use of such a mask might be counterproductive.

    Quote from article interviewing the author

    ..........
    Around the 7:30 mark of the video, an off-screen interviewer asks Dr. Fischer directly if the public should interpret his findings as saying that neck gaiters are "worse than nothing." His answer? "Absolutely not."
    ..........

    Answer to your question likely is, scientists aren’t that great in properly structuring the language of their papers to convey more complex aspects of their findings.

    "That is cool" - Abraham Lincoln
  • SurfpossumSurfpossum A nonentity trying to preserve the anonymity he so richly deserves.Registered User regular
    The gaiter the study tested, due to its material and construction, might be worse than nothing per the study.

    Gaiters in general probably aren't, per one author of the study in the article.

  • SimpsoniaSimpsonia Registered User regular
    tbloxham wrote: »
    https://www.sfgate.com/shopping/article/neck-gaiters-arent-worse-than-no-mask-covid-15484868.php

    There’s been a lot in the news lately about how neck gaiters are somehow worse than no mask due the perception that the duke study showed they had some kind of magic aerosolizing ability. The author of that study says that while other masks are obviously better, the gaiter they tested was both very thin, and there was no reason to believe it was worse than no mask at all (which is absurd on the face of it because Covid19 is sometimes aerosolized but always infectious via spit and droplets). In their eyes the study showed you should replace very thin material masks with something better because there are better alternatives, not because the poor choices are sometimes worse than nothing.

    I think the theory is that while the large droplets are no less infections if contacted, that they do not hang in the air as long as the small droplets, so the likelihood of infection via breathing the droplets in is lower with larger droplets than small.

  • cncaudatacncaudata Registered User regular
    Most importantly, the study did not aim to scientifically prove the efficacy of different masks. It was designed to showcase a particular method of testing and to allow the doctor who designed it to choose a mask to use as a giveaway.

    There was incredibly little rigor, and the original text is clear about this. One person tested one mask of a type. Of course, the scientifically illiterate media picked up the story and started blowing all the claims out of proportion.

    PSN: Broodax- battle.net: broodax#1163
  • CelestialBadgerCelestialBadger Registered User regular
    I’ve stopped using the neck gaiters I used instead of a mask when outside, because what is the point?

  • MayabirdMayabird Pecking at the keyboardRegistered User regular
    So how bad has the pandemic been hitting Russia? About as badly as it's been hitting all the other authoritarian countries, only Putin's regime is better at manipulating the numbers.

    Russia already had a culture of underreporting bad news (underlings not wanting to give bad news to their superiors for fear of punishment, all the way up a long hierarchical chain of command), causing systemic problems with statistics even at the best of times. There are also official disincentives to accurately reporting the number of COVID-19 deaths (contrary to right-wing online troll claims that there are incentives to bloat the numbers and make the death toll larger than it actually is). Thus, Russia has official numbers that claim to only have around 15,000 deaths caused by SARS2 as of today in mid-August, when excess deaths were already over 26,000 by the end of June. Multiple regions were showing June 2020 as the deadliest month in over a decade, with excess deaths ranging from 30-50% above normal. Statistics have been taking much longer than usual to come out over the past half year too, as if someone's got something to hide and is trying to stretch it out as long as possible.

    There's very good reasons why I don't trust the Russian vaccine - all the official numbers and claims have been lies so far. What's to stop them from lying about the efficacy of the vaccine too? Absolutely nothing, that's what.

  • FencingsaxFencingsax It is difficult to get a man to understand, when his salary depends upon his not understanding GNU Terry PratchettRegistered User regular
    You don't contract a case of defenestration by making the number smaller.

  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    Mayabird wrote: »
    So how bad has the pandemic been hitting Russia? About as badly as it's been hitting all the other authoritarian countries, only Putin's regime is better at manipulating the numbers.

    Russia already had a culture of underreporting bad news (underlings not wanting to give bad news to their superiors for fear of punishment, all the way up a long hierarchical chain of command), causing systemic problems with statistics even at the best of times. There are also official disincentives to accurately reporting the number of COVID-19 deaths (contrary to right-wing online troll claims that there are incentives to bloat the numbers and make the death toll larger than it actually is). Thus, Russia has official numbers that claim to only have around 15,000 deaths caused by SARS2 as of today in mid-August, when excess deaths were already over 26,000 by the end of June. Multiple regions were showing June 2020 as the deadliest month in over a decade, with excess deaths ranging from 30-50% above normal. Statistics have been taking much longer than usual to come out over the past half year too, as if someone's got something to hide and is trying to stretch it out as long as possible.

    There's very good reasons why I don't trust the Russian vaccine - all the official numbers and claims have been lies so far. What's to stop them from lying about the efficacy of the vaccine too? Absolutely nothing, that's what.

    You know what makes me sad? The numbers uncovered by this diligent journalism, secreted away by Putin to avoid a scandal which could rock his regime? Better than the openly available numbers for the US. What a mess our response has been.

    "That is cool" - Abraham Lincoln
  • Jubal77Jubal77 Registered User regular
    edited August 2020
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.11.20171843v2

    New study on immunity.
    The recently emerged SARS-CoV-2 virus is currently causing a global pandemic and cases continue to rise. The majority of infected individuals experience mildly symptomatic coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), but it is unknown whether this can induce persistent immune memory that might contribute to herd immunity. Thus, we performed a longitudinal assessment of individuals recovered from mildly symptomatic COVID-19 to determine if they develop and sustain immunological memory against the virus. We found that recovered individuals developed SARS-CoV-2-specific IgG antibody and neutralizing plasma, as well as virus-specific memory B and T cells that not only persisted, but in some cases increased numerically over three months following symptom onset. Furthermore, the SARS-CoV-2-specific memory lymphocytes exhibited characteristics associated with potent antiviral immunity: memory T cells secreted IFN-γ and expanded upon antigen re-encounter, while memory B cells expressed receptors capable of neutralizing virus when expressed as antibodies. These findings demonstrate that mild COVID-19 elicits memory lymphocytes that persist and display functional hallmarks associated with antiviral protective immunity.

    Edit:

    Sorry. Paper needs peer review as shown in header of paper. But method shows to be positive.

    Jubal77 on
  • TetraNitroCubaneTetraNitroCubane The Djinnerator At the bottom of a bottleRegistered User regular
    edited August 2020
    Jubal77 wrote: »
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.11.20171843v2

    New study on immunity.
    The recently emerged SARS-CoV-2 virus is currently causing a global pandemic and cases continue to rise. The majority of infected individuals experience mildly symptomatic coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), but it is unknown whether this can induce persistent immune memory that might contribute to herd immunity. Thus, we performed a longitudinal assessment of individuals recovered from mildly symptomatic COVID-19 to determine if they develop and sustain immunological memory against the virus. We found that recovered individuals developed SARS-CoV-2-specific IgG antibody and neutralizing plasma, as well as virus-specific memory B and T cells that not only persisted, but in some cases increased numerically over three months following symptom onset. Furthermore, the SARS-CoV-2-specific memory lymphocytes exhibited characteristics associated with potent antiviral immunity: memory T cells secreted IFN-γ and expanded upon antigen re-encounter, while memory B cells expressed receptors capable of neutralizing virus when expressed as antibodies. These findings demonstrate that mild COVID-19 elicits memory lymphocytes that persist and display functional hallmarks associated with antiviral protective immunity.

    If this study is accurate, it is fantastic news. Particularly for vaccine development.

    TetraNitroCubane on
    VuIBhrs.png
  • ToxTox I kill threads he/himRegistered User regular
    edited August 2020
    Starting with the buried lede because that's really the most important part:
    The mutation has become the predominant variant in Europe and the U.S., with the World Health Organization saying there’s no evidence the strain leads to a more severe disease.

    Bloomberg is a news org
    JUST IN: Malaysia detects new coronavirus strain that’s 10 times more infectious https://t.co/HQs0FnfmkR

    So yeah Malaysia now has the same strain that's been wrecking us for months

    Tox on
    Twitter! | Dilige, et quod vis fac
  • ceresceres When the last moon is cast over the last star of morning And the future has past without even a last desperate warningRegistered User, Moderator mod
    Jubal77 wrote: »
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.11.20171843v2

    New study on immunity.
    The recently emerged SARS-CoV-2 virus is currently causing a global pandemic and cases continue to rise. The majority of infected individuals experience mildly symptomatic coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), but it is unknown whether this can induce persistent immune memory that might contribute to herd immunity. Thus, we performed a longitudinal assessment of individuals recovered from mildly symptomatic COVID-19 to determine if they develop and sustain immunological memory against the virus. We found that recovered individuals developed SARS-CoV-2-specific IgG antibody and neutralizing plasma, as well as virus-specific memory B and T cells that not only persisted, but in some cases increased numerically over three months following symptom onset. Furthermore, the SARS-CoV-2-specific memory lymphocytes exhibited characteristics associated with potent antiviral immunity: memory T cells secreted IFN-γ and expanded upon antigen re-encounter, while memory B cells expressed receptors capable of neutralizing virus when expressed as antibodies. These findings demonstrate that mild COVID-19 elicits memory lymphocytes that persist and display functional hallmarks associated with antiviral protective immunity.
    What is a preprint server?

    Scientific papers in the medical field normally undergo a process of peer review in which they are examined by fellow researchers before publication in a scientific journal. As it is a time-consuming process that can take many months, much COVID-19 research is initially published on a preprint server. Science’s understanding of coronavirus and COVID-19 is improving rapidly, and if society is to respond to the new knowledge generated, the information must be made as readily available as possible to the scientific community, the authorities and the general public. There are a wide range of preprint servers in different research fields that publish the first version of scientific papers, and many researchers also submit the same manuscript to a journal for peer review at the same time. The downside of publishing a paper on a preprint server only is that it is harder for a layperson to judge the quality of the research it describes.

    This paper is in the pre-print phase. I realize that that reiterating this makes me a wet blanket, I've just seen so much of this stuff run with out in the world and then repeated again and again for people who may or may not understand how and why and what stage of review we're reading right now. I've been guilty of it myself over the past few months, but it is so important to self-examine when discussing immunity. There are conflicting papers out there that most people don't have the tools to understand, and when they are repeated to others as-is it creates a lot of confusion. I ran into a cashier at a grocery store a month or two back who, after some conversation over checkout, said of the local restrictions "We're just going to have to do all this again in a few weeks, and maybe the whole thing is overblown; I just don't know what to believe or who to trust anymore."

    A crazy example from the post just below the one I just quoted:
    Tox wrote: »
    Starting with the buried lede because that's really the most important part:
    The mutation has become the predominant variant in Europe and the U.S., with the World Health Organization saying there’s no evidence the strain leads to a more severe disease.
    Bloomberg is a news org
    JUST IN: Malaysia detects new coronavirus strain that’s 10 times more infectious https://t.co/HQs0FnfmkR

    So yeah Malaysia now has the same strain that's been wrecking us for months

    This tweet is just bonkers ridiculous. The content of the article it links contradicts it, and even the paper from Cell that it references shrugs and goes 'iunno, probably not? There is no direct evidence to support it, no one really knows what this means right now or if it is really the cause of any extra problems at all, it's being looked into.' Because right now different researchers and officials around the world have given contradictory suppositions as to if any of it is the case and/or why.

    From the article itself:
    “People need to be wary and take greater precautions because this strain has now been found in Malaysia,” the country’s Director-General of Health Noor Hisham Abdullah wrote in a Facebook post, saying the strain can make it 10 times more infectious without citing a study. “The people’s cooperation is very needed so that we can together break the chain of infection from any mutation.”

    The strain “might be a little bit more contagious. We haven’t yet got enough evidence to evaluate that, but there’s no evidence that it’s a lot more contagious,” University of Hong Kong’s Cowling said.

    And from the referenced paper in Cell:
    Although there has already been much breathless commentary on what this mutation means for the COVID-19 pandemic, the global expansion of G614 whether through natural selection or chance means that this variant now is the pandemic. As a result, its properties matter. It is clear from the in vitro and clinical data that G614 has a distinct phenotype, but whether this is the result of bonafide adaptation to human ACE2, whether it increases transmissibility, or will have a notable effect is not clear.

    Here is that paper: https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674(20)30817-5.pdf

    I actually think the Cell paper is a really important read if you can make a little time, because it can help clarify what we know. We need to be wary of clickbait like the Bloomberg tweet, that so severely misrepresents the contents of the links they contain. The person who made the statement from the tweet is a country's health official in a facebook post with no citations. The person who went "uh yeah there's no evidence to suggest this whatsoever" is the head of epidemiology at the University of Hong Kong.

    And it seems like all is dying, and would leave the world to mourn
  • EchoEcho ski-bap ba-dapModerator mod
    edited August 2020
    We've had one death since the 10th here in Swedlandia.

    edit: ...and today's daily update had four new deaths. :-|

    4vohfmdo57gt.png

    Echo on
  • RickRudeRickRude Registered User regular
    Unc started in person classes a week ago.

    130 students have tested positive for covid.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/17/us/coronavirus-college-university/index.html

  • MovitzMovitz Registered User regular
    edited August 2020
    Echo wrote: »
    We've had one death since the 10th here in Swedlandia.

    edit: ...and today's daily update had four new deaths. :-|

    4vohfmdo57gt.png

    I took the train to work this morning just to try it as car is stupid expensive and the traffic is massive these days.

    It was a pretty bad experience with people distancing badly and very little masking going on. The train was probably 60% full even though I took a really early one. Now with everyone returning from holidays and schools are starting up again I believe the autumn could get ugly.

    I'm buggering off home after lunch and going back to driving. Even though I loathe cars for economy and environmental reasons.

    Movitz on
  • daveNYCdaveNYC Why universe hate Waspinator? Registered User regular
    Czech Republic is looking to ramp up the mask requirements. Shops, all public transport, the post office, etc. Starting September first... so that's great. And kids will have to wear masks in school when they're in the halls, but not in class. Which is also... great... Finally, they're reducing the quarantine time from 14 to 10 days, because something something the virus really drops off after 10 days.

    We're holding steady(ish) at around 300 cases per day (weekday numbers), but that's with a 4% positive rate on the tests, so undercount yo. We've been at this level of new cases for over two weeks with no increase in the hospitalization numbers, which is weird.

    Shut up, Mr. Burton! You were not brought upon this world to get it!
  • MovitzMovitz Registered User regular
    daveNYC wrote: »
    Czech Republic is looking to ramp up the mask requirements. Shops, all public transport, the post office, etc. Starting September first... so that's great. And kids will have to wear masks in school when they're in the halls, but not in class. Which is also... great... Finally, they're reducing the quarantine time from 14 to 10 days, because something something the virus really drops off after 10 days.

    We're holding steady(ish) at around 300 cases per day (weekday numbers), but that's with a 4% positive rate on the tests, so undercount yo. We've been at this level of new cases for over two weeks with no increase in the hospitalization numbers, which is weird.

    It seems young people are the primary drivers of the infection in many EU countries now. It could explain why the hospitalizations are not rising.

  • MayabirdMayabird Pecking at the keyboardRegistered User regular
    There sure do seem to be a lot of data issues with reporting COVID cases recently, like Texas not reporting thousands if not tens of thousands of test results. Iowa's official statistics were heavily skewed by reporting recent positive cases as having occurred months ago so the curve looks flatter and the governor can pretend infection rates aren't that bad just as she's pushing schools to reopen in-person.

    And in Florida, the state has been using every single negative test for its positivity rate statistics but only one positive test per patient to dilute its positivity rate, partially to hide the drop in testing, partially to make Florida look less bad than it actually is. Official Florida statistics claim the positivity rate is below 10% when it's above 15% using the methods everybody honest uses.

  • MorganVMorganV Registered User regular
    Texas and Florida fudging numbers to provide a rosier outlook, rather than doing the things necessary to actually get things under control, and placate the toddler in the White House?

    Who could ever have seen that coming?

    Oh? *holds hand to imaginary headset*. Everyone. I'm being told everyone saw that coming.

  • HedgethornHedgethorn Associate Professor of Historical Hobby Horses In the Lions' DenRegistered User regular
    edited August 2020
    The University of Notre Dame ran 418 tests yesterday and got 89 new positives. I don't think they're making it to September 1st.
    https://www.southbendtribune.com/coronavirus/notre-dame-reports-89-new-covid-19-infections-in-one-day-monday/article_da52e7d4-e170-11ea-90a9-17e2f3aaecde.html

    Edit: So much for making it to 9/1, Notre Dame didn't make it to 9 PM. Going completely remote instruction for 2 weeks, then going to try again.
    https://news.nd.edu/news/notre-dame-enacts-two-weeks-of-remote-instruction/

    Hedgethorn on
  • ToxTox I kill threads he/himRegistered User regular
    RickRude wrote: »
    Unc started in person classes a week ago.

    130 students have tested positive for covid.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/17/us/coronavirus-college-university/index.html

    The Technician is the student-produced news source for North Carolina State University (NCSU)

    As of 3:40 pm on Aug. 18, there are 42 new positive test results in the NC State community from Student Health Service, self-reports, local health authorities and/or information sources from the week of Aug. 11- 17.

    https://t.co/b1HjCtz0SB
    BREAKING: NC State safety notice reports a COVID-19 cluster has been identified in an "off-campus housing location near the 2700 block of Clark Avenue in Raleigh." Story to come soon. Clusters are defined as "five or more cases that are deemed in close proximity or location."

    Twitter! | Dilige, et quod vis fac
  • MazzyxMazzyx Comedy Gold Registered User regular
    Coronavirus saliva tests could be cheaper and faster. Here’s how they work.
    Taking one of the latest coronavirus tests to gain federal approval is as easy as spitting.

    SalivaDirect, developed by researchers at the Yale School of Public Health, was granted emergency approval by the Food and Drug Administration on Saturday and offers a more comfortable alternative to a nasal swab. Saliva can be collected in any sterile container.

    As the United States grapples with building testing capacity to meet the growing demand brought on by people resuming school and work, officials have placed their hopes on several solutions including saliva testing. Since the test doesn’t require chemical reagents or swabs that have become scarce during the pandemic and offers a faster turnaround than the standard test, some believe it could offer the country a way to determine the spread of the virus quickly.

    “Providing this type of flexibility for processing saliva samples to test for Covid-19 infection is groundbreaking,” said FDA Commissioner Stephen Hahn in a statement.

    This is getting emergency approval. Been tested against PCR with the same level of error. If it can be rolled out cheaply and easier to perform aka spit in the tube it can help improve and increase testing. Still requires a lab but less regents.

    u7stthr17eud.png
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