Updates on [SARS2/covid-19] (reboot)

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  • KetarKetar Come on upstairs we're having a partyRegistered User regular
    edited October 23
    I'm pretty sure I appealed to the authority of the American College of Chest Physicians and the collective experience of the speakers at their annual conference - which was literally just held this past week.

    I'm also pretty sure I didn't say anything at all about the other trial.

    Believe whatever you want to believe, but based on the reactions of the clinicians most experienced at treating covid in the US, this approval right now is little more than a political move and it's not something people should be getting very hopeful about.

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  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    Marty81 wrote: »
    North Dakota is seeing 100 new cases per 100k residents per day right now. It's fuckin bananas there right now. South Dakota has the second-fastest spread in the nation right now, at around 80/100k/day. Utah is pretty bad too, at around 40/100k/day.

    Those numbers are insane.

    Here in Europe (I'm in Norway) we measure by cases/100k over the last 14 days. For a country/region to be considered "yellow" (our scale goes from "yellow" to "red", used to be "green" and "red") cases need to be less than 20/100k/14 days (also less than 5% positivity rates on tests).

    Assuming the numbers were steady the last 14 days (I know they've been increasing), ND is at 1400/100k/14 days. Worst hit in Europe is at something like 600/100k/14 days.

    You are misunderstanding how the EU data is presented.

    France has had about 30k cases a day for the last week, in a population of about 66 million.

    Thats ~48 cases per 100k.

    So, ND is bad, but it's only about twice as bad as France or Spain right now (although, France and Spain have about 50% more testing per capita than the US, so the true rate is worse in ND)

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  • [Expletive deleted][Expletive deleted] The mediocre doctor NorwayRegistered User regular
    tbloxham wrote: »
    Marty81 wrote: »
    North Dakota is seeing 100 new cases per 100k residents per day right now. It's fuckin bananas there right now. South Dakota has the second-fastest spread in the nation right now, at around 80/100k/day. Utah is pretty bad too, at around 40/100k/day.

    Those numbers are insane.

    Here in Europe (I'm in Norway) we measure by cases/100k over the last 14 days. For a country/region to be considered "yellow" (our scale goes from "yellow" to "red", used to be "green" and "red") cases need to be less than 20/100k/14 days (also less than 5% positivity rates on tests).

    Assuming the numbers were steady the last 14 days (I know they've been increasing), ND is at 1400/100k/14 days. Worst hit in Europe is at something like 600/100k/14 days.

    You are misunderstanding how the EU data is presented.

    France has had about 30k cases a day for the last week, in a population of about 66 million.

    Thats ~48 cases per 100k.

    So, ND is bad, but it's only about twice as bad as France or Spain right now (although, France and Spain have about 50% more testing per capita than the US, so the true rate is worse in ND)

    Isn't that what I'm saying? 600 is about half of 1400.

    The insanity is that to be considered "safe-adjacent" the limit is 1.5/100k/day (≈ 20/100k/14 days) and ND is at least 65 times the "safe-ish" number of cases (and France about 30 times).

    Sic transit gloria mundi.
    Daenris
  • HappylilElfHappylilElf Registered User regular
    As someone living in ND? The two counties with the vast majority of the cases are college towns (one of which I live in) and the bars are open so I'm not even surprised.

    I've been paying attention while getting groceries at night ( I try to go no more than an hour before store close so it's virtually empty) and yeah, every bar that makes money from the college crowd has had packed parking lots. Combine that with the fact that our testing is just now getting up to snuff and a resigned sigh is about all I've got reaction-wise.

  • zagdrobzagdrob Registered User regular
    As someone living in ND? The two counties with the vast majority of the cases are college towns (one of which I live in) and the bars are open so I'm not even surprised.

    I've been paying attention while getting groceries at night ( I try to go no more than an hour before store close so it's virtually empty) and yeah, every bar that makes money from the college crowd has had packed parking lots. Combine that with the fact that our testing is just now getting up to snuff and a resigned sigh is about all I've got reaction-wise.

    It looks like a lot of the numbers nationwide are being driven by universities / college student. Who could possibly have foreseen this? /s

    Our county just did a mandatory two week stay-in-place order for all undergraduates because over 1000 of the ~4100 confirmed cases county-wide since the beginning of all this are student-related since the beginning of August, and 61% of active cases this week are students.

    The silver lining I guess is hospitalization and fatality rates are far lower among the 18-25 demographic and if they are getting sick in isolation at college they probably aren't spreading it to their older family members. Of course they are also still allowed to work and work in disproportionately public-facing jobs, and the holidays aren't that far off where they will all start going back home so yeah.

    I know part of why the numbers are so high is that the university is doing testing and contact tracing to the degree that our society as a whole should have been doing since February / March, but it's still getting bad enough we (wife and I) are going back to our March stay at home / complete isolation patterns instead of being more relaxed like we were at the end of summer / beginning of fall.

    It seems like the whole plan was holding everything together until the election but the wheels are already starting to fall off.

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  • MayabirdMayabird Pecking at the keyboardRegistered User regular
    zagdrob wrote: »
    The silver lining I guess is hospitalization and fatality rates are far lower among the 18-25 demographic and if they are getting sick in isolation at college they probably aren't spreading it to their older family members. Of course they are also still allowed to work and work in disproportionately public-facing jobs, and the holidays aren't that far off where they will all start going back home so yeah.

    Oh, it's definitely getting into the nursing homes. All that time all these places had to prepare since we saw the death tolls in New York and New Jersey, and all those months since April, all squandered. The facilities might be smaller in rural areas but that also means when a number of residents die, it really makes the death rate shoot up in these areas.


    France just joined the Million Case club and Colombia will join the crowd tomorrow unless they don't release numbers.

    Peru is officially listed as the country with the second-worst death rate to their population, behind tiny San Marino entirely enclosed by Italy, hit hard at the same time, and proportionately worse due to the low population. However, Peru's excess deaths since March are more than double the official death toll. If those are counted, the death rate has been 200 per 100,000 - 0.2% of the entire Peruvian population has died. Peru seems to be the worst hit country proportionately as far as official numbers go. Of course, Turkmenistan could be worse in all its denial, and for all we know a million might've died in North Korea already.

  • MayabirdMayabird Pecking at the keyboardRegistered User regular
    The following chart comes from sewage sampling from the Boston area, looking for SARS2 genetic signals:

    ElHL2_uW0AIN8ek?format=jpg

    Boston is about to blow up with cases again. The New England respite has just ended.


    Meanwhile Italy has been seeing anti-mask and anti-lockdown riots in Rome, Naples, and elsewhere. The lockdowns are happening because cases are exploding there just like in March, and then the lockdowns worked.





    Remember how hard Italy was hit, how for a while it was the worst-afflicted country in the world? Remember how there were towns that lost 1% of their population in a month? That was this year.

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  • MorganVMorganV Registered User regular
    Mayabird wrote: »
    The following chart comes from sewage sampling from the Boston area, looking for SARS2 genetic signals:

    ElHL2_uW0AIN8ek?format=jpg

    Boston is about to blow up with cases again. The New England respite has just ended.


    Meanwhile Italy has been seeing anti-mask and anti-lockdown riots in Rome, Naples, and elsewhere. The lockdowns are happening because cases are exploding there just like in March, and then the lockdowns worked.

    Remember how hard Italy was hit, how for a while it was the worst-afflicted country in the world? Remember how there were towns that lost 1% of their population in a month? That was this year.

    Seeing similar unrest here in Victoria Australia. Outrage over lockdowns.

    Fuck. Off.

    The reason for lockdowns are people continuing to be fucking stupid, not wearing masks, not social distancing, and being right wankers.

    This isn’t the fault of the government. It's the fault of selfish cretins who put their own immediacy over the welfare of others.

    Just so fucking tired of it.

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  • ElvenshaeElvenshae Registered User regular
    The White House is admitting defeat on coronavirus?

    https://apple.news/AuIjsvgCUTHGFOVaP0p6aYQ

    White House chief of Staff Mark Meadows has just said in an interview with CNN that we aren’t going to control the pandemic.

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  • ExtreaminatusExtreaminatus Registered User regular
    Less 'admitting defeat' and more 'we don't give a fuck'.

    Preacher wrote: »
    There are plenty of people out there that believe in white supremacy and sweet sweet big foot dick.
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  • CelestialBadgerCelestialBadger Registered User regular
    edited October 25
    If this lot were in charge in the '40s, Hitler would have won.

    Heck, they'd have probably joined him against Stalin.

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  • StarZapperStarZapper Vermont, Bizzaro world.Registered User regular
    Elvenshae wrote: »
    The White House is admitting defeat on coronavirus?

    https://apple.news/AuIjsvgCUTHGFOVaP0p6aYQ

    White House chief of Staff Mark Meadows has just said in an interview with CNN that we aren’t going to control the pandemic.

    Well they tried nothing and that didn't work, so they're all out of ideas.

    As far as Italy, it was mainly northern Italy that got hit back in the spring. Rome / Naples area didn't get affected much by the virus, but their economies have been demolished by the lockdowns. So I'm not surprised there's a strong pushback there, however unfortunate.

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  • AbsoluteZeroAbsoluteZero The new film by Quentin Koopantino Registered User regular
    Elvenshae wrote: »
    The White House is admitting defeat on coronavirus?

    https://apple.news/AuIjsvgCUTHGFOVaP0p6aYQ

    White House chief of Staff Mark Meadows has just said in an interview with CNN that we aren’t going to control the pandemic.

    I think this is just more pushing the "learning to live with it" messaging.

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  • Commander ZoomCommander Zoom Registered User regular
    Elvenshae wrote: »
    The White House is admitting defeat on coronavirus?

    https://apple.news/AuIjsvgCUTHGFOVaP0p6aYQ

    White House chief of Staff Mark Meadows has just said in an interview with CNN that we aren’t going to control the pandemic.

    I think this is just more pushing the "learning to live with it" messaging.

    "Learning to die with it." - Joe Biden

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  • Martini_PhilosopherMartini_Philosopher Registered User regular
    Elvenshae wrote: »
    The White House is admitting defeat on coronavirus?

    https://apple.news/AuIjsvgCUTHGFOVaP0p6aYQ

    White House chief of Staff Mark Meadows has just said in an interview with CNN that we aren’t going to control the pandemic.

    I think this is just more pushing the "learning to live with it" messaging.

    I just watched this on Twitter, which is currently blowing up with the message, and near as I can tell this is the Trump Administration burning down the house and salting the earth behind them. Anyone that tries to contain things after they're out of office is going to have a heckuva uphill battle. The infrastructure is gone, the legal authority has been tarnished through many state courts, and the CDC's reputation is in the garbage. They don't want anyone fighting to make the public healthy.

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  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    MorganV wrote: »
    Mayabird wrote: »
    The following chart comes from sewage sampling from the Boston area, looking for SARS2 genetic signals:

    ElHL2_uW0AIN8ek?format=jpg

    Boston is about to blow up with cases again. The New England respite has just ended.


    Meanwhile Italy has been seeing anti-mask and anti-lockdown riots in Rome, Naples, and elsewhere. The lockdowns are happening because cases are exploding there just like in March, and then the lockdowns worked.

    Remember how hard Italy was hit, how for a while it was the worst-afflicted country in the world? Remember how there were towns that lost 1% of their population in a month? That was this year.

    Seeing similar unrest here in Victoria Australia. Outrage over lockdowns.

    Fuck. Off.

    The reason for lockdowns are people continuing to be fucking stupid, not wearing masks, not social distancing, and being right wankers.

    This isn’t the fault of the government. It's the fault of selfish cretins who put their own immediacy over the welfare of others.

    Just so fucking tired of it.

    Australia has zero excuse for protest. In like, Italy or other European nations there is a chance that the best personal choice for you (not for society) as a healthy young person is to open the economy and then get lucky on your illness and the vaccine timeline etc. Its a greedy and horrible calculus, but it could be the right one if you assume that lockdowns are inevitable going to fail.

    In Australia, you are looking at near to zero cases. Another month of high caution and one after that of diligence and you can be looking at elimination. If you are winning, why give up?

    Also, just in case anyone thinks lockdowns somehow don't work any more, look at Israel. 140 cases yesterday, down from 9000 3 weeks ago. They work. The entire western world has just spent the summer being idiots and ignoring how viruses work and can be eliminated.

    Lockdowns, transitioning to local guidelines, which are strictly ramped up if anything goes wrong and slowly ramped down with a travel ban on all non essential travel beyond your local town or city which lasts until the very very end. Also, no indoor dining or bars until zero local cases. The lack of local travel restrictions was the stupid thing. Europe had them when it didn't need them (strict national lockdown phase) and then didn't have them when it did. If Europe had kept travel restrictions (international and domestic) in place all summer you'd be looking at like 99% of places being totally virus free.

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  • discriderdiscrider Registered User regular
    edited October 26
    Eh.
    Victoria is getting to the point where they can look across the border at New South Wales and say 'well our numbers are much the same, why do we have a much harder lockdown?'.
    Which, different political parties in power really.

    Hard to say which approach is better, when NSW is seeing minimal cases but still roughly open for business, but elimination being still preferable.

    So I have some sympathy for Victorian protestors who are having trouble making ends meet now, than the zero I had for the previous protests when infections per day were still in the hundreds.

    Course, the federal government should be supporting these people better rather than actively trying to weaken our border quarantine.

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  • BrodyBrody The Watch The First ShoreRegistered User regular
    I haven't been able to keep close track of this, how fucked are the less dumb US states now days?

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  • DevoutlyApatheticDevoutlyApathetic Registered User regular
    edited October 26
    Brody wrote: »
    I haven't been able to keep close track of this, how fucked are the less dumb US states now days?

    The two best states are in the teens per 100k. Another five or six are up around 40-60. Our worse are up around 700 per a 100k.

    This is what I use to look in on that: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html

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  • CelestialBadgerCelestialBadger Registered User regular
    Brody wrote: »
    I haven't been able to keep close track of this, how fucked are the less dumb US states now days?

    If your neighbor's house is on fire in a terrace, it doesn't matter how many fire extinguishers you bought.

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  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    Brody wrote: »
    I haven't been able to keep close track of this, how fucked are the less dumb US states now days?

    Less fucked, but still pretty fucked because idiots from those states can freely mingle with idiots in other states and continually re-spread the virus through the summer. The better prepared states know far more about what is going on, but don't have the testing and isolation firepower required to actually beat down outbreaks.

    Foolish states just know nothing. Prepared states more just know how screwed they are if they can't act, but can't act because they have been starved of resources.

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  • DevoutlyApatheticDevoutlyApathetic Registered User regular
    Oh yeah, NY current has quarantine rules for 40 out of 49 states. The only reason NJ/PA aren't on there is because being direct border states it is essentially impossible.

  • StarZapperStarZapper Vermont, Bizzaro world.Registered User regular
    Oh yeah, NY current has quarantine rules for 40 out of 49 states. The only reason NJ/PA aren't on there is because being direct border states it is essentially impossible.

    Yeah but the quarantine rules are a joke, because they're unenforceable anywhere in the country basically. All 49 states are supposed to quarantine before coming to my state, but no one does.

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  • DevoutlyApatheticDevoutlyApathetic Registered User regular
    StarZapper wrote: »
    Oh yeah, NY current has quarantine rules for 40 out of 49 states. The only reason NJ/PA aren't on there is because being direct border states it is essentially impossible.

    Yeah but the quarantine rules are a joke, because they're unenforceable anywhere in the country basically. All 49 states are supposed to quarantine before coming to my state, but no one does.

    From what I understand they're basically for airports. Other than that they basically don't get enforced.

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  • ShadowfireShadowfire Vermont, in the middle of nowhereRegistered User regular
    StarZapper wrote: »
    Oh yeah, NY current has quarantine rules for 40 out of 49 states. The only reason NJ/PA aren't on there is because being direct border states it is essentially impossible.

    Yeah but the quarantine rules are a joke, because they're unenforceable anywhere in the country basically. All 49 states are supposed to quarantine before coming to my state, but no one does.

    Yeah there are signs up at all the borders to check vermont.gov for quarantine rules, and just about every county in the country is at least on the "yo you better quarantine the fuck up" list aside from a handful of areas in Maine and new hampshire.

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  • [Expletive deleted][Expletive deleted] The mediocre doctor NorwayRegistered User regular
    Brody wrote: »
    I haven't been able to keep close track of this, how fucked are the less dumb US states now days?

    The two best states are in the teens per 100k. Another five or six are up around 40-60. Our worse are up around 700 per a 100k.

    This is what I use to look in on that: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html

    This is per day, right?

    EU measures per 14 days. So multiply all US numbers by 14.

    Sic transit gloria mundi.
  • honoverehonovere Registered User regular
    Brody wrote: »
    I haven't been able to keep close track of this, how fucked are the less dumb US states now days?

    The two best states are in the teens per 100k. Another five or six are up around 40-60. Our worse are up around 700 per a 100k.

    This is what I use to look in on that: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html

    This is per day, right?

    EU measures per 14 days. So multiply all US numbers by 14.

    I'm not sure that is correct? at least not universial? For example in germany the numbers are total number of new cases in the last 7 days per 100k people for countermeasure purposes and in addition several outlets are also reporting the daily average of the last 7 days per 100k.
    Here for example (which is also the source for Worldometer numbers)
    https://interaktiv.tagesspiegel.de/lab/karte-sars-cov-2-in-deutschland-landkreise/
    You can change between "Anzahl der Fälle" (number of cases) and "pro 100.000 Einw" (per 100k residents) and it shows the total number of cases of the last 7 days. only if you click on the map you also get the graphs for the daily cases

  • SanderJKSanderJK Crocodylus Pontifex Sinterklasicus Madrid, 3000 ADRegistered User regular
    The ECDC collects from all the member states and publishes a 14 day stat. It is available here: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

    Many states publish more granular data, for instance https://coronadashboard.rijksoverheid.nl/landelijk/positief-geteste-mensen are the current Dutch numbers, which are published and tracked daily. So the NL is currently at 58.7/100k daily, or 0.59 if I compare it to these https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/tracker/map/new-cases-per-1-000-people, which would put NL around #6 worst state.

    The current gaps in the testing certainly are much smaller than they were in the first wave. It's a fairly consistent 0.5 - 1% mortality rate, with only a few more eastern countries getting slightly dubious (Greece 1.4%, Romania 1.8%).

    Europe is seeing a much more rapid increase though. +60% weekly everywhere.

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  • honoverehonovere Registered User regular
    Ah, okay. Now I see. Yeah, that puts Germany at an average of 20-30 daily cases per 100k for the last week which is way over the higher boundary that was set for countermeasures. But because the state and federal government can't agree on or won't admit the necessity of a shutdown at the moment we'll be at twice those numbers in a week or so, I guess.

    France looks like it is already in the really fucked stsge. Might hit a 100k cases (total, not per 100k of course )a day soon.

  • CorvusCorvus . VancouverRegistered User regular
    If this lot were in charge in the '40s, Hitler would have won.

    Heck, they'd have probably joined him against Stalin.

    Oh, they probably would have been happy to join with Hitler against just about anyone. I mean, let's keep some historical perspective here, the US didn't exactly show up to fight for the freedom of the world the minute the war started.

    Anywho, kind of off-topic.

    :so_raven:
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  • MayabirdMayabird Pecking at the keyboardRegistered User regular
    edited October 27
    Some world news:

    Poland is getting so overwhelmed that ambulance shelters are being turned into temporary wards to hold coronavirus patients until a bed can be found so an ambulance can drive them there.

    Belgium is running out of ICU beds and is already sending patients to Germany. Doctors and nurses that test positive are being asked to keep working because hospitals are so understaffed.

    Mexico reported 193,170 excess deaths through Sept 26. The official COVID death toll as of that date was around 78,000. Excess deaths, a month ago, were 0.15% of Mexico's entire national population. The US has more total excess deaths, about a third more, but the US also has 2.5 times the population. There had been reports of entire states in Mexico running out of death certificates and being unable to handle the loads - this would be why.

    Bolsonaro is going anti-vaxxer, claiming that any of the claimed miracle drugs is actually a COVID-19 cure, because he took them and didn't die, so clearly. Trump bleats about receiving a cure, so now all the right-wing leaders will start bleating about magic cures, trying to distract the masses from the ever-increasing death tolls.


    Also a new study that long-term exposure to air pollution leads to worse overall outcomes for COVID patients and seem to have contributed to 15% of deaths. Lung damage due to pollution damages the lungs and lets SARS2 get a greater foothold, leading to more likely death. There have been multiple studies for different areas, and this one supports them all: dirty air is a comorbidity.

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  • daveNYCdaveNYC Why universe hate Waspinator? Registered User regular
    Fun.
    The Czech government ordered a 9 p.m. curfew and will limit retail sales on Sundays as part of tighter measures adopted on Monday to stem a surge in COVID-19 infections, ministers said.

    The Czech Republic will begin its first nationwide curfew on Wednesday night, as it continues to battle a resurgence of coronavirus cases.

    Free movement on the streets is restricted from 9 pm until 5 am CET, and is likely to remain in place for one week according to Health Minister Roman Prymula.

    The curfew allows exceptions for commuting to work, buying medicine, and caring for elderly and young family members. Dog walking only permitted within 500 meters of your residence.

    At the same time, retail shops still running under current restrictions must also close by 8 p.m. and on Sundays, with exceptions including gas stations, pharmacies, and shops at airports or railway stations.

    Fruits, vegetables, meat, and pastries can be sold at the markets. The spacing between the stands has to be two meters with a maximum of 20 people every 400 square meters.

    10k new cases yesterday with a 50% positive rate, so we're still boned.

    Shut up, Mr. Burton! You were not brought upon this world to get it!
  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    Mayabird wrote: »
    Some world news:

    Poland is getting so overwhelmed that ambulance shelters are being turned into temporary wards to hold coronavirus patients until a bed can be found so an ambulance can drive them there.

    Belgium is running out of ICU beds and is already sending patients to Germany. Doctors and nurses that test positive are being asked to keep working because hospitals are so understaffed.

    Mexico reported 193,170 excess deaths through Sept 26. The official COVID death toll as of that date was around 78,000. Excess deaths, a month ago, were 0.15% of Mexico's entire national population. The US has more total excess deaths, about a third more, but the US also has 2.5 times the population. There had been reports of entire states in Mexico running out of death certificates and being unable to handle the loads - this would be why.

    Bolsonaro is going anti-vaxxer, claiming that any of the claimed miracle drugs is actually a COVID-19 cure, because he took them and didn't die, so clearly. Trump bleats about receiving a cure, so now all the right-wing leaders will start bleating about magic cures, trying to distract the masses from the ever-increasing death tolls.


    Also a new study that long-term exposure to air pollution leads to worse overall outcomes for COVID patients and seem to have contributed to 15% of deaths. Lung damage due to pollution damages the lungs and lets SARS2 get a greater foothold, leading to more likely death. There have been multiple studies for different areas, and this one supports them all: dirty air is a comorbidity.

    Air pollution contributing seems to make an enormous amount of sense, but what about Indian they have terrible air pollution and their fatality rate is not that high. Is the effect just being squashed by their very young population?

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  • CorvusCorvus . VancouverRegistered User regular
    I mean, air pollution, even living on a busy street in an otherwise unpolluted city is awful for your lungs, so this makes sense.

    :so_raven:
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  • Phoenix-DPhoenix-D Registered User regular
    tbloxham wrote: »
    Mayabird wrote: »
    Some world news:

    Poland is getting so overwhelmed that ambulance shelters are being turned into temporary wards to hold coronavirus patients until a bed can be found so an ambulance can drive them there.

    Belgium is running out of ICU beds and is already sending patients to Germany. Doctors and nurses that test positive are being asked to keep working because hospitals are so understaffed.

    Mexico reported 193,170 excess deaths through Sept 26. The official COVID death toll as of that date was around 78,000. Excess deaths, a month ago, were 0.15% of Mexico's entire national population. The US has more total excess deaths, about a third more, but the US also has 2.5 times the population. There had been reports of entire states in Mexico running out of death certificates and being unable to handle the loads - this would be why.

    Bolsonaro is going anti-vaxxer, claiming that any of the claimed miracle drugs is actually a COVID-19 cure, because he took them and didn't die, so clearly. Trump bleats about receiving a cure, so now all the right-wing leaders will start bleating about magic cures, trying to distract the masses from the ever-increasing death tolls.


    Also a new study that long-term exposure to air pollution leads to worse overall outcomes for COVID patients and seem to have contributed to 15% of deaths. Lung damage due to pollution damages the lungs and lets SARS2 get a greater foothold, leading to more likely death. There have been multiple studies for different areas, and this one supports them all: dirty air is a comorbidity.

    Air pollution contributing seems to make an enormous amount of sense, but what about Indian they have terrible air pollution and their fatality rate is not that high. Is the effect just being squashed by their very young population?

    Do we have accurate data from India?

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  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    edited October 27
    Phoenix-D wrote: »
    tbloxham wrote: »
    Mayabird wrote: »
    Some world news:

    Poland is getting so overwhelmed that ambulance shelters are being turned into temporary wards to hold coronavirus patients until a bed can be found so an ambulance can drive them there.

    Belgium is running out of ICU beds and is already sending patients to Germany. Doctors and nurses that test positive are being asked to keep working because hospitals are so understaffed.

    Mexico reported 193,170 excess deaths through Sept 26. The official COVID death toll as of that date was around 78,000. Excess deaths, a month ago, were 0.15% of Mexico's entire national population. The US has more total excess deaths, about a third more, but the US also has 2.5 times the population. There had been reports of entire states in Mexico running out of death certificates and being unable to handle the loads - this would be why.

    Bolsonaro is going anti-vaxxer, claiming that any of the claimed miracle drugs is actually a COVID-19 cure, because he took them and didn't die, so clearly. Trump bleats about receiving a cure, so now all the right-wing leaders will start bleating about magic cures, trying to distract the masses from the ever-increasing death tolls.


    Also a new study that long-term exposure to air pollution leads to worse overall outcomes for COVID patients and seem to have contributed to 15% of deaths. Lung damage due to pollution damages the lungs and lets SARS2 get a greater foothold, leading to more likely death. There have been multiple studies for different areas, and this one supports them all: dirty air is a comorbidity.

    Air pollution contributing seems to make an enormous amount of sense, but what about Indian they have terrible air pollution and their fatality rate is not that high. Is the effect just being squashed by their very young population?

    Do we have accurate data from India?

    Not great data, but enough to know that this virus hasn't been abnormally lethal there. It's been terrible, but, less terrible than you would have predicted. But I suppose they are only saying its 15% of deaths? That's easily small enough to be cancelled out by India's average age of 27 years vs 38 in the US. That's a half order of magnitude decrease in the chance of that 'average' person dying.

    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-age.html

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  • MazzyxMazzyx Comedy Gold Registered User regular
    France, Germany announces restrictions amid coronavirus resurgence
    ARIS — President Emmanuel Macron announced a second full national lockdown Wednesday evening, amid a skyrocketing second wave of coronavirus infections in France.

    The new lockdown will begin Friday and was a necessary last resort in the face of troubling figures, Macron said. “I have decided that we must return to confinement,” Macron said. “The whole territory is concerned.”

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  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    Mazzyx wrote: »
    France, Germany announces restrictions amid coronavirus resurgence
    ARIS — President Emmanuel Macron announced a second full national lockdown Wednesday evening, amid a skyrocketing second wave of coronavirus infections in France.

    The new lockdown will begin Friday and was a necessary last resort in the face of troubling figures, Macron said. “I have decided that we must return to confinement,” Macron said. “The whole territory is concerned.”

    This is good news for France. A swift and aggressive response will hopefully allow a useful evaluation of what is needed on a territory by territory basis in a few weeks, which could never have been done without a lockdown. Honestly everyone should do this for at least two weeks to allow some level of resilience and understanding of what is going on here.

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  • Mr RayMr Ray Sarcasm sphereRegistered User regular
    discrider wrote: »
    Eh.
    Victoria is getting to the point where they can look across the border at New South Wales and say 'well our numbers are much the same, why do we have a much harder lockdown?'.
    Which, different political parties in power really.

    Hard to say which approach is better, when NSW is seeing minimal cases but still roughly open for business, but elimination being still preferable.

    So I have some sympathy for Victorian protestors who are having trouble making ends meet now, than the zero I had for the previous protests when infections per day were still in the hundreds.

    Course, the federal government should be supporting these people better rather than actively trying to weaken our border quarantine.

    Incidentally, since this was posted, Victoria's hard lockdown has finally lifted. There was supposed to be a big announcement on Sunday about easing restrictions, but it was delayed to Monday, then Tuesday because some fuckwit with a confirmed COVID case in their household had decided to send their kid to school, and they were waiting on test results to see if we were looking at another potential super-spreader event that would necessitate delaying the lifting of restrictions. Thankfully we weren't, and on Monday we saw our first day of 0 new cases since March, followed by a second day of 0 cases.

    We can still only travel within 25km of our homes, but cafes and restaurants are allowed to seat people again (at reduced capacity, naturally), and we're allowed to visit other people in their homes, albeit one visit or visitor per day. We're also supposed to still wear our masks when visiting people which I guarantee absolutely nobody will do. But, for now at least, we can breathe a sigh of relief and resume doing human things like buying things in a shop and eating at a cafe. It was almost surreal seeing people actually sitting in the cafes eating for the first time yesterday.

    Space.
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  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    edited October 29
    https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/regeneron-says-its-covid-19-antibody-treatment-cut-medical-visits-n1245197

    If you receive the Regeneron treatment while your Covid symptoms are Mild to Moderate, before hospitalization, your chances of needing a follow up medical visit fall ~57%. 70% in patients with existing risk factors. Your symptoms will also be alleviated significantly faster.

    If we had ramped testing, and cases were at a very low level, and we were identifying almost all of them quickly then this makes your diagnosis with Coronavirus not significantly worse than a Flu diagnosis (assuming it is not the case that somehow all the people who still go to hospital are those who would have died anyway?)

    This is almost a cure. But, not any more, because now we have 80,000 cases a day and rising and our testing is awful. Now its just a cruel joke that noone will be able to get benefit from.

    Ha, NOW we can finally say with accuracy that the rich are abandoning us to our fates that they won't share, because it sounds like regular testing and swift application of this treatment would get the job done at making Covid19 not much worse than Flu (which, to be clear, is still a nasty disease for all age groups)

    Edit - Here's the actual press release. Good news for like, people in Taiwan or Australia who catch the disease?
    https://newsroom.regeneron.com/news-releases/news-release-details/regenerons-covid-19-outpatient-trial-prospectively-demonstrates

    tbloxham on
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