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Updates on [SARS2/covid-19] (reboot)

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Posts

  • PhantPhant Registered User regular
    As someone who lives in Minneapolis, fuck Iowa and North Dakota and... basically all our neighbors except Canada for this nonsense. We should be able to close the goddamn borders

  • BrodyBrody The Watch The First ShoreRegistered User regular
    Mayabird wrote: »
    Iowa ranks 46th in rate of distributing vaccines to its population and the new UK variant has just been discovered to be circulating in the state. So now of course is the perfect time to end the already-weak state mask mandate and fully open all bars, with no restrictions on limits or social distancing. It goes into effect Sunday so the bars can be packed for Super Bowl parties. Then there will be Valentine's Day dining after that.

    Oh, and don't tell yourself that people will be drinking and dining outdoors. Iowa along with most of the Midwest is currently in a big cold snap where temperatures are predicted on many days not to get above 0 F for at least the next week. I guess we'll just be seeing how bad it gets.

    I work for a company headquartered in Iowa, and they have made it very clear that they don't believe Covid is real, and don't understand why we all switched to working from home.

    "I will write your name in the ruin of them. I will paint you across history in the color of their blood."

    The Monster Baru Cormorant - Seth Dickinson

    Steam: Korvalain
  • MorninglordMorninglord I'm tired of being Batman, so today I'll be Owl.Registered User regular
    edited February 2021
    edit: forgot which thread this was. dont want to clutter it up.

    Morninglord on
    (PSN: Morninglord) (Steam: Morninglord) (WiiU: Morninglord22) I like to record and toss up a lot of random gaming videos here.
  • MayabirdMayabird Pecking at the keyboardRegistered User regular
    edited February 2021
    In a common effort undertaken since March 2020, the Center for Research and Studies in Public Health Law (CEPEDISA) of the Public Health College (FSP) of the University of São Paulo (USP) and Conectas Direitos Humanos, one of the most respected justice organizations of Latin America, have collected and scrutinized federal and state regulations relating to the novel coronavirus, producing a brief titled Rights in the Pandemic – Mapping and Analysis of the Legal Rules in Response to Covid-19 in Brazil. On January 21, they put out a special edition making a strong statement:

    “Our research has revealed the existence of an institutional strategy to spread the virus, promoted by the Brazilian government under the leadership of the President of the Republic.”

    ...

    There is an intention, a plan and a systematic course of action contained in the government rules and in Bolsonaro’s speeches, as the study shows. “The results dispel the persistent interpretation that there was incompetence and negligence from the federal government in the management of the pandemic. On the contrary, the systematization of data, although incomplete due to the lack of space for publishing so many events, reveals the government’s commitment and efficiency in favor of the widespread dissemination of the virus over the Brazilian territory..."

    Brazil's COVID-19 epidemic was deliberate and intentional mass homicide, published by the Spanish newspaper of note El País. Considering that one reason for spreading SARS2 was to try to wipe out the Amazonian tribes, there's a good case for genocide as well. Maybe someone will look at the data and conclude that the debacles in the US, UK, and elsewhere were actually negligent homicide instead of murder and genocide, but there's a reason why I've been getting a bit paranoid about the right-wing over the past year or so - they are out to get us and will kill us all for their gain. Bolsonaro is called the Trump of the Tropics for a reason.

    Mayabird on
  • [Expletive deleted][Expletive deleted] The mediocre doctor NorwayRegistered User regular
    Mayabird wrote: »
    In a common effort undertaken since March 2020, the Center for Research and Studies in Public Health Law (CEPEDISA) of the Public Health College (FSP) of the University of São Paulo (USP) and Conectas Direitos Humanos, one of the most respected justice organizations of Latin America, have collected and scrutinized federal and state regulations relating to the novel coronavirus, producing a brief titled Rights in the Pandemic – Mapping and Analysis of the Legal Rules in Response to Covid-19 in Brazil. On January 21, they put out a special edition making a strong statement:

    “Our research has revealed the existence of an institutional strategy to spread the virus, promoted by the Brazilian government under the leadership of the President of the Republic.”

    ...

    There is an intention, a plan and a systematic course of action contained in the government rules and in Bolsonaro’s speeches, as the study shows. “The results dispel the persistent interpretation that there was incompetence and negligence from the federal government in the management of the pandemic. On the contrary, the systematization of data, although incomplete due to the lack of space for publishing so many events, reveals the government’s commitment and efficiency in favor of the widespread dissemination of the virus over the Brazilian territory..."

    Brazil's COVID-19 epidemic was deliberate and intentional mass homicide, published by the Spanish newspaper of note El País. Considering that one reason for spreading SARS2 was to try to wipe out the Amazonian tribes, there's a good case for genocide as well. Maybe someone will look at the data and conclude that the debacles in the US, UK, and elsewhere were actually negligent homicide instead of murder and genocide, but there's a reason why I've been getting a bit paranoid about the right-wing over the past year or so - they are out to get us and will kill us all for their gain. Bolsonaro is called the Trump of the Tropics for a reason.

    What's not clear to me is the motive here. As abhorrent as it is, I can see Bolsanaro's motive wrt wiping out the indigenous population. What is the motive to spread the disease in the general population?

    Sic transit gloria mundi.
  • CelestialBadgerCelestialBadger Registered User regular
    Mayabird wrote: »
    In a common effort undertaken since March 2020, the Center for Research and Studies in Public Health Law (CEPEDISA) of the Public Health College (FSP) of the University of São Paulo (USP) and Conectas Direitos Humanos, one of the most respected justice organizations of Latin America, have collected and scrutinized federal and state regulations relating to the novel coronavirus, producing a brief titled Rights in the Pandemic – Mapping and Analysis of the Legal Rules in Response to Covid-19 in Brazil. On January 21, they put out a special edition making a strong statement:

    “Our research has revealed the existence of an institutional strategy to spread the virus, promoted by the Brazilian government under the leadership of the President of the Republic.”

    ...

    There is an intention, a plan and a systematic course of action contained in the government rules and in Bolsonaro’s speeches, as the study shows. “The results dispel the persistent interpretation that there was incompetence and negligence from the federal government in the management of the pandemic. On the contrary, the systematization of data, although incomplete due to the lack of space for publishing so many events, reveals the government’s commitment and efficiency in favor of the widespread dissemination of the virus over the Brazilian territory..."

    Brazil's COVID-19 epidemic was deliberate and intentional mass homicide, published by the Spanish newspaper of note El País. Considering that one reason for spreading SARS2 was to try to wipe out the Amazonian tribes, there's a good case for genocide as well. Maybe someone will look at the data and conclude that the debacles in the US, UK, and elsewhere were actually negligent homicide instead of murder and genocide, but there's a reason why I've been getting a bit paranoid about the right-wing over the past year or so - they are out to get us and will kill us all for their gain. Bolsonaro is called the Trump of the Tropics for a reason.

    What's not clear to me is the motive here. As abhorrent as it is, I can see Bolsanaro's motive wrt wiping out the indigenous population. What is the motive to spread the disease in the general population?

    Same as all the other right-wing countries: get immunity via everyone having had it while killing off the weak, old and poor.

  • ZibblsnrtZibblsnrt Registered User regular
    Also anyone living in a modern urban society is going to be far more resistant to even new diseases than most of the Amazonian tribes, so any infections there are going to do disproportionate damage.

    Rightwing authoritarians also generally don't care about body count as long as their opponents cease to exist.

  • gavindelgavindel The reason all your software is brokenRegistered User regular
    Mayabird wrote: »
    In a common effort undertaken since March 2020, the Center for Research and Studies in Public Health Law (CEPEDISA) of the Public Health College (FSP) of the University of São Paulo (USP) and Conectas Direitos Humanos, one of the most respected justice organizations of Latin America, have collected and scrutinized federal and state regulations relating to the novel coronavirus, producing a brief titled Rights in the Pandemic – Mapping and Analysis of the Legal Rules in Response to Covid-19 in Brazil. On January 21, they put out a special edition making a strong statement:

    “Our research has revealed the existence of an institutional strategy to spread the virus, promoted by the Brazilian government under the leadership of the President of the Republic.”

    ...

    There is an intention, a plan and a systematic course of action contained in the government rules and in Bolsonaro’s speeches, as the study shows. “The results dispel the persistent interpretation that there was incompetence and negligence from the federal government in the management of the pandemic. On the contrary, the systematization of data, although incomplete due to the lack of space for publishing so many events, reveals the government’s commitment and efficiency in favor of the widespread dissemination of the virus over the Brazilian territory..."

    Brazil's COVID-19 epidemic was deliberate and intentional mass homicide, published by the Spanish newspaper of note El País. Considering that one reason for spreading SARS2 was to try to wipe out the Amazonian tribes, there's a good case for genocide as well. Maybe someone will look at the data and conclude that the debacles in the US, UK, and elsewhere were actually negligent homicide instead of murder and genocide, but there's a reason why I've been getting a bit paranoid about the right-wing over the past year or so - they are out to get us and will kill us all for their gain. Bolsonaro is called the Trump of the Tropics for a reason.

    What's not clear to me is the motive here. As abhorrent as it is, I can see Bolsanaro's motive wrt wiping out the indigenous population. What is the motive to spread the disease in the general population?

    Fastest way out of the problem.

    Book - Royal road - Free! Seraphim === TTRPG - Wuxia - Free! Seln Alora
  • ToxTox I kill threads he/himRegistered User regular
    I'm guessing it was less they were trying to kill people and more they just genuinely did not care if or how many they did kill

    Twitter! | Dilige, et quod vis fac
  • ZibblsnrtZibblsnrt Registered User regular
    gavindel wrote: »
    Fastest way out of the problem.

    Which will probably be a surprise to the (probably) million or so Brazilians dealing with longhaul syndrome...
    Tox wrote: »
    I'm guessing it was less they were trying to kill people and more they just genuinely did not care if or how many they did kill

    Yeah, when your goal is to remove an unwanted population - and Bolsonaro campaigned openly on that! - you aren't going to be the kind of person who cares about collateral damage.



  • DrezDrez Registered User regular
    Mayabird wrote: »
    In a common effort undertaken since March 2020, the Center for Research and Studies in Public Health Law (CEPEDISA) of the Public Health College (FSP) of the University of São Paulo (USP) and Conectas Direitos Humanos, one of the most respected justice organizations of Latin America, have collected and scrutinized federal and state regulations relating to the novel coronavirus, producing a brief titled Rights in the Pandemic – Mapping and Analysis of the Legal Rules in Response to Covid-19 in Brazil. On January 21, they put out a special edition making a strong statement:

    “Our research has revealed the existence of an institutional strategy to spread the virus, promoted by the Brazilian government under the leadership of the President of the Republic.”

    ...

    There is an intention, a plan and a systematic course of action contained in the government rules and in Bolsonaro’s speeches, as the study shows. “The results dispel the persistent interpretation that there was incompetence and negligence from the federal government in the management of the pandemic. On the contrary, the systematization of data, although incomplete due to the lack of space for publishing so many events, reveals the government’s commitment and efficiency in favor of the widespread dissemination of the virus over the Brazilian territory..."

    Brazil's COVID-19 epidemic was deliberate and intentional mass homicide, published by the Spanish newspaper of note El País. Considering that one reason for spreading SARS2 was to try to wipe out the Amazonian tribes, there's a good case for genocide as well. Maybe someone will look at the data and conclude that the debacles in the US, UK, and elsewhere were actually negligent homicide instead of murder and genocide, but there's a reason why I've been getting a bit paranoid about the right-wing over the past year or so - they are out to get us and will kill us all for their gain. Bolsonaro is called the Trump of the Tropics for a reason.

    What's not clear to me is the motive here. As abhorrent as it is, I can see Bolsanaro's motive wrt wiping out the indigenous population. What is the motive to spread the disease in the general population?

    Same as all the other right-wing countries: get immunity via everyone having had it while killing off the weak, old and poor.

    A Republican once told me that she thought it was more humane to “let the homeless die” rather than ineffectively prolonging their lives through welfare while draining the rest of society. She was very serious. These are the kinds of things some of these people really believe. Those that do legitimately think it’s a moral good.

    Switch: SW-7690-2320-9238Steam/PSN/Xbox: Drezdar
  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/07/health/south-africa-astrazeneca-vaccine-study/index.html

    Also posted in the other thread, but relatively bad news about the AZ vaccine and the south africa variant, with the following data in ~31 year olds in the trial

    20/719 placebo group members developed mild to moderate disease Risk Midpoint = 2.87%
    19/748 vaccine group members developed mild to moderate disease Risk Midpoint = 2.63%

    The risk midpoint is not X/Y. It is the 50th percentile risk point, remembering that in rare events like this, the risk midpoint you prove may be higher than X/Y. Best example of this is that if you see 0/100 events you have not 'proven' statistically that the midpoint of the population risk distribution is 0, as you cannot have 'anti risk'. The 'midpoint' from your testing is 0.6% risk. This effect goes away once you have larger groups.

    Apparently no members of either group, or anyone in the trial at all developed severe disease or were hospitalized (the trial design here appears to have been rubbish) so nothing can be said about effacacy vs severe disease, hospitalization, or death.

    One thing to keep in mind is that J&J and Novavax both recently announced results, J&J full phase 3 results, which included larger patient groups in South Africa exposed to this strain and showed reasonable (60%) effacacy in patients without aids and very high effacacy against severe disease and hospitalization. These trials were better powered, included a broader patient group, and faced the same viral strain.

    In addition, this trial is woefully underpowered, the 77th percentile high Risk for the placebo group is 3.4% (IE, there is a 23% chance that in a larger trial the true risk to the placebo group would come out to be 3.4%) and the 77th percentile low risk for the vaccine group is 2.2%. As such, this study cannot exclude a 35% reduction in disease risk at the 95% confidence level.

    Furthermore, the AZ vaccine has recently shown itself to have a widely varying effacacy with dosing strategy etc.

    None of this should be taken to mean this result is not bad. Clearly the vaccine COULD have delivered a massive slam dunk here and said, "This is not a meaningfully different strain". It did not, and its failure to say that is significant. But, it did not say, "This vaccine does not work and the other vaccines will not work either". Get vaccinated. You should still expect high levels of protection against severe disease.

    "That is cool" - Abraham Lincoln
  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    edited February 2021
    https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1257886

    Above is a nonsense article on post vaccine infections.

    In Oregon, the average number of infections over the last 7 days was 550 per day.

    As of 2 weeks ago, aproximately 3% of the population of Oregon had recieved two doses.

    The population of Oregon is 4.1 million.

    150k people fully vaccinated and at least 2 weeks past that.

    For the worst possible interpretation of this data (all these cases happened today, and we've also not told you about the similar numbers which have been happening every day for weeks)

    550/4.1 e 6 -> 0.0134% of the population of Oregon infected yesterday

    Expected infections in vaccine group for no functional protection

    150000*0.0134/100 = 20

    Observed cases

    4

    This news story is literally "vaccine looks like it is working really well! At least 80% risk reduction observed, including asymptomatic cases"

    And of course, these breakthrough infections weren't observed yesterday. These are over the last couple of weeks since they first had people more than 2 weeks out from shot 2. So while the time weighted number in the group goes down, the number of expected infections goes up by about 14, meaning the data looks even better.

    This is literally a good news story. In other countries they have been reporting data like this exactly as "vaccines appear to be working! Hooray!"

    TlDR? -> 95% is not 100%

    tbloxham on
    "That is cool" - Abraham Lincoln
  • daveNYCdaveNYC Why universe hate Waspinator? Registered User regular
    Guess this is an update.
    The government of the Czech Republic declared a state of emergency for the next two weeks. This is good.
    They did this despite Parliament voting to not allow them to extend the current state of emergency. This is bad.

    Also, from what I've read we're rolling with the super fun times UK variant of COVID, so that's not helping. Just looking at the case numbers over the past few weeks I can, in my capacity as a professional internet rando, conclusively state that that variant is really tough to stop. We're not 100% shut down here, but pretty much every non-food/medicine shop is shut and schools and bars/restaurants are closed; yet the new cases are just barely creeping down. Nasty.

    Shut up, Mr. Burton! You were not brought upon this world to get it!
  • honoverehonovere Registered User regular
    Germany is also closing its border to the Czech republic. Brussels is not happy about it.

  • daveNYCdaveNYC Why universe hate Waspinator? Registered User regular
    honovere wrote: »
    Germany is also closing its border to the Czech republic. Brussels is not happy about it.

    Eh, we're a plague state at the moment, so locking down the border makes sense. Not hearing anything from Austria or Poland though. Lots of skiing still happening, not good.

    Shut up, Mr. Burton! You were not brought upon this world to get it!
  • honoverehonovere Registered User regular
    Borders are also closed for visitors from Tirol

  • daveNYCdaveNYC Why universe hate Waspinator? Registered User regular
    Bloody hell, Tyrol is rocking the SA variant and we're rolling in the UK one. Hope it works out for Germany, but given the asymptomatic spread and all the other really good Plague Inc. features this damn thing has, I'm not super optimistic.

    Shut up, Mr. Burton! You were not brought upon this world to get it!
  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    https://www.bbc.com/news/health-56069460

    The vaccine (pfizer) is 94% effective at preventing symptomatic disease even in an environment where the UK strain is dominant. Severe disease, hospitalizations and deaths are reduced further still, but are still possible. This is by far the largest study of vaccine effacacy in the real world monitored by multiple HMOs in Israel.

    This study does not address the South african strain. However, we should all be reminded that Johnson and Novavax both showed 60% effacy vs symptomatic disease in that strain and no examples of hospitalizations or severe cases in the test groups once they reached full effacacy.

    "That is cool" - Abraham Lincoln
  • HeraldSHeraldS Registered User regular
    Mayabird wrote: »
    In a common effort undertaken since March 2020, the Center for Research and Studies in Public Health Law (CEPEDISA) of the Public Health College (FSP) of the University of São Paulo (USP) and Conectas Direitos Humanos, one of the most respected justice organizations of Latin America, have collected and scrutinized federal and state regulations relating to the novel coronavirus, producing a brief titled Rights in the Pandemic – Mapping and Analysis of the Legal Rules in Response to Covid-19 in Brazil. On January 21, they put out a special edition making a strong statement:

    “Our research has revealed the existence of an institutional strategy to spread the virus, promoted by the Brazilian government under the leadership of the President of the Republic.”

    ...

    There is an intention, a plan and a systematic course of action contained in the government rules and in Bolsonaro’s speeches, as the study shows. “The results dispel the persistent interpretation that there was incompetence and negligence from the federal government in the management of the pandemic. On the contrary, the systematization of data, although incomplete due to the lack of space for publishing so many events, reveals the government’s commitment and efficiency in favor of the widespread dissemination of the virus over the Brazilian territory..."

    Brazil's COVID-19 epidemic was deliberate and intentional mass homicide, published by the Spanish newspaper of note El País. Considering that one reason for spreading SARS2 was to try to wipe out the Amazonian tribes, there's a good case for genocide as well. Maybe someone will look at the data and conclude that the debacles in the US, UK, and elsewhere were actually negligent homicide instead of murder and genocide, but there's a reason why I've been getting a bit paranoid about the right-wing over the past year or so - they are out to get us and will kill us all for their gain. Bolsonaro is called the Trump of the Tropics for a reason.

    What's not clear to me is the motive here. As abhorrent as it is, I can see Bolsanaro's motive wrt wiping out the indigenous population. What is the motive to spread the disease in the general population?

    Money.

    Dead indigenous people in the Amazon can't protest when new areas are razed to make room for more ranching, farming, etc. Big agribusiness has a lot of sway in Brazil. For example JBS, one of the biggest pork producers in the world, is Brazilian and pretty corrupt to boot.

  • [Expletive deleted][Expletive deleted] The mediocre doctor NorwayRegistered User regular
    HeraldS wrote: »
    Mayabird wrote: »
    In a common effort undertaken since March 2020, the Center for Research and Studies in Public Health Law (CEPEDISA) of the Public Health College (FSP) of the University of São Paulo (USP) and Conectas Direitos Humanos, one of the most respected justice organizations of Latin America, have collected and scrutinized federal and state regulations relating to the novel coronavirus, producing a brief titled Rights in the Pandemic – Mapping and Analysis of the Legal Rules in Response to Covid-19 in Brazil. On January 21, they put out a special edition making a strong statement:

    “Our research has revealed the existence of an institutional strategy to spread the virus, promoted by the Brazilian government under the leadership of the President of the Republic.”

    ...

    There is an intention, a plan and a systematic course of action contained in the government rules and in Bolsonaro’s speeches, as the study shows. “The results dispel the persistent interpretation that there was incompetence and negligence from the federal government in the management of the pandemic. On the contrary, the systematization of data, although incomplete due to the lack of space for publishing so many events, reveals the government’s commitment and efficiency in favor of the widespread dissemination of the virus over the Brazilian territory..."

    Brazil's COVID-19 epidemic was deliberate and intentional mass homicide, published by the Spanish newspaper of note El País. Considering that one reason for spreading SARS2 was to try to wipe out the Amazonian tribes, there's a good case for genocide as well. Maybe someone will look at the data and conclude that the debacles in the US, UK, and elsewhere were actually negligent homicide instead of murder and genocide, but there's a reason why I've been getting a bit paranoid about the right-wing over the past year or so - they are out to get us and will kill us all for their gain. Bolsonaro is called the Trump of the Tropics for a reason.

    What's not clear to me is the motive here. As abhorrent as it is, I can see Bolsanaro's motive wrt wiping out the indigenous population. What is the motive to spread the disease in the general population?

    Money.

    Dead indigenous people in the Amazon can't protest when new areas are razed to make room for more ranching, farming, etc. Big agribusiness has a lot of sway in Brazil. For example JBS, one of the biggest pork producers in the world, is Brazilian and pretty corrupt to boot.

    As I said, I understand why he wants to kill off the indigenous population.

    But the article alleges that he wants to kill off more than just the natives. And I have a hard time grasping the motive for that. By all estimates this has been extremely costly. Who profits? How does Bolsanaro hope to profit, personally or politically, on killing thousands upon thousands of non-indigenous?

    Sic transit gloria mundi.
  • MorganVMorganV Registered User regular
    HeraldS wrote: »
    Mayabird wrote: »
    In a common effort undertaken since March 2020, the Center for Research and Studies in Public Health Law (CEPEDISA) of the Public Health College (FSP) of the University of São Paulo (USP) and Conectas Direitos Humanos, one of the most respected justice organizations of Latin America, have collected and scrutinized federal and state regulations relating to the novel coronavirus, producing a brief titled Rights in the Pandemic – Mapping and Analysis of the Legal Rules in Response to Covid-19 in Brazil. On January 21, they put out a special edition making a strong statement:

    “Our research has revealed the existence of an institutional strategy to spread the virus, promoted by the Brazilian government under the leadership of the President of the Republic.”

    ...

    There is an intention, a plan and a systematic course of action contained in the government rules and in Bolsonaro’s speeches, as the study shows. “The results dispel the persistent interpretation that there was incompetence and negligence from the federal government in the management of the pandemic. On the contrary, the systematization of data, although incomplete due to the lack of space for publishing so many events, reveals the government’s commitment and efficiency in favor of the widespread dissemination of the virus over the Brazilian territory..."

    Brazil's COVID-19 epidemic was deliberate and intentional mass homicide, published by the Spanish newspaper of note El País. Considering that one reason for spreading SARS2 was to try to wipe out the Amazonian tribes, there's a good case for genocide as well. Maybe someone will look at the data and conclude that the debacles in the US, UK, and elsewhere were actually negligent homicide instead of murder and genocide, but there's a reason why I've been getting a bit paranoid about the right-wing over the past year or so - they are out to get us and will kill us all for their gain. Bolsonaro is called the Trump of the Tropics for a reason.

    What's not clear to me is the motive here. As abhorrent as it is, I can see Bolsanaro's motive wrt wiping out the indigenous population. What is the motive to spread the disease in the general population?

    Money.

    Dead indigenous people in the Amazon can't protest when new areas are razed to make room for more ranching, farming, etc. Big agribusiness has a lot of sway in Brazil. For example JBS, one of the biggest pork producers in the world, is Brazilian and pretty corrupt to boot.

    As I said, I understand why he wants to kill off the indigenous population.

    But the article alleges that he wants to kill off more than just the natives. And I have a hard time grasping the motive for that. By all estimates this has been extremely costly. Who profits? How does Bolsanaro hope to profit, personally or politically, on killing thousands upon thousands of non-indigenous?

    Less protestors/opposition for the inevitable coup?

    He was nationally popular from his election in January 2019 through April 2019, but since, he's had one poll where he's up (Jan 2020, one tied (Aug 2020), and nine where he's down on average about 10pts.

    Unlikely he wins fairly, almost no chance he gives up power.

  • daveNYCdaveNYC Why universe hate Waspinator? Registered User regular
    Just great. From the New Scientist.
    Two variants of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus that causes covid-19 have combined their genomes to form a heavily mutated hybrid version of the virus. The “recombination” event was discovered in a virus sample in California, provoking warnings that we may be poised to enter a new phase of the pandemic.

    The hybrid virus is the result of recombination of the highly transmissible B.1.1.7 variant discovered in the UK and the B.1.429 variant that originated in California and which may be responsible for a recent wave of cases in Los Angeles because it carries a mutation making it resistant to some antibodies.

    Shut up, Mr. Burton! You were not brought upon this world to get it!
  • MorganVMorganV Registered User regular
    daveNYC wrote: »
    Just great. From the New Scientist.
    Two variants of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus that causes covid-19 have combined their genomes to form a heavily mutated hybrid version of the virus. The “recombination” event was discovered in a virus sample in California, provoking warnings that we may be poised to enter a new phase of the pandemic.

    The hybrid virus is the result of recombination of the highly transmissible B.1.1.7 variant discovered in the UK and the B.1.429 variant that originated in California and which may be responsible for a recent wave of cases in Los Angeles because it carries a mutation making it resistant to some antibodies.

    Fucking awesome.

    And this, people, is why letting the virus spread unchecked, is a bad idea.

    I mean, it's just math. More infections means more chance of a mutation. More chances at mutations, more mutations. More mutations, more chance of more contagious and/or deadly and/or resilient strain.

  • HappylilElfHappylilElf Registered User regular
    Phant wrote: »
    As someone who lives in Minneapolis, fuck Iowa and North Dakota and... basically all our neighbors except Canada for this nonsense. We should be able to close the goddamn borders

    As someone who lives in North Dakota I'd like to apologize for the rest of my state and at the same time, as I reside in Fargo which has been taking this shit seriously, like to inform you of the many ways in which you can go fuck yourself, @Phant.

  • daveNYCdaveNYC Why universe hate Waspinator? Registered User regular
    The hits keep coming. From the Washington Post.

    Pfizer and Moderna vaccines have reduced effectiveness against South African variant, new studies show

    They work against the UK variant, but not so great on South Africa's. The AstraZeneca vaccine ain't so hot either on that one.

    Shut up, Mr. Burton! You were not brought upon this world to get it!
  • ShivahnShivahn Unaware of her barrel shifter privilege Western coastal temptressRegistered User, Moderator mod
    With all these various mutations, it's pretty clear that "back to normal" is actually going to become true due to normal changing to something between what it was and what we have now.

    Well, that, or we'll all be constantly getting brain damage from whatever hot new COVID strain is popular.

  • TetraNitroCubaneTetraNitroCubane The Djinnerator At the bottom of a bottleRegistered User regular
    This is significantly bad news, because the only way to really combat this new strain sounds like lockdowns and increased precautions. You know, exactly what the US has failed to do up to this point. Exactly what allowed these variants to emerge.

    Everyone in this country is convinced this pandemic is "over" already, and is acting accordingly. We're proper fucked.

    VuIBhrs.png
  • DrowsDrows Registered User regular
    edited February 2021
    It depends how much "reduced" means. Reading some of the articles yesterday about Pfizer+Moderna vs South Africa, they don't know the actual effectiveness yet, only that fewer antibodies were produced. Against the previous strains the protection was 90+%, even 50% effectiveness would still get us out eventually, barring further strains. The numbers aren't in yet.

    Drows on
  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    From the study author

    https://apple.news/ACjC-eTPmS4OWzXXNzifAQA


    Why the vaccine will still likely work in real-life against the variant
    Pei-Yong Shi, UTMB professor and study co-author, told Reuters that there is no "cut off line" for how large the antibody response has to be to protect against the virus. He said that he suspected the immune response observed in the study was likely to be significantly above where it needs to be to provide protection against COVID-19.
    Shi said that, even if the concerning variant significantly reduces effectiveness, the vaccine should still help protect against severe disease and death. Shi said that more work was needed to fully understand whether the vaccine works against the variant in South Africa, including clinical trials and the development of a benchmark to determine the antibody levels that are protective.


    Diminished response is bad, but the response is currently very high, and your immune system is in a better spot to mutate onto the right target quickly if it is already close. Novavax and Johnson both showed reduced but good efficiency, and excellent performance against severe disease. Get your vaccines.

    "That is cool" - Abraham Lincoln
  • jungleroomxjungleroomx It's never too many graves, it's always not enough shovels Registered User regular
    Yeah can we be clear?

    I don't want to send any mixed messaging out from this thread that the vaccine isn't worth getting, because it 100% absolutely is worth getting.

  • MazzyxMazzyx Comedy Gold Registered User regular
    Yeah can we be clear?

    I don't want to send any mixed messaging out from this thread that the vaccine isn't worth getting, because it 100% absolutely is worth getting.

    The vaccines had an insanely high rate of resistance before the variant and are still in the good level after. And even more than just preventing the disease they greatly minimize death and hospitalization. Getting COVID but only having a cold verse getting oxygen is huge.

    Like if we do get 80-90% of the population vaccinated then yes life very much can go back to something like normal. We will probably have to keep doing boosters and such just like the flu but no reduce effectiveness doesn't mean the vaccine isn't an incredible way of stopping the loss of life and increased disability caused by this disease.

    u7stthr17eud.png
  • daveNYCdaveNYC Why universe hate Waspinator? Registered User regular
    Yeah can we be clear?

    I don't want to send any mixed messaging out from this thread that the vaccine isn't worth getting, because it 100% absolutely is worth getting.

    Certainly worth getting, that is true. It's just depressing that back in October or whenever we were all psyched about 90% effectiveness on some of these vaccines.

    Shut up, Mr. Burton! You were not brought upon this world to get it!
  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    daveNYC wrote: »
    Yeah can we be clear?

    I don't want to send any mixed messaging out from this thread that the vaccine isn't worth getting, because it 100% absolutely is worth getting.

    Certainly worth getting, that is true. It's just depressing that back in October or whenever we were all psyched about 90% effectiveness on some of these vaccines.

    We should still be psyched. 60% (what was shown by novavax against all symptomatic infection against the SA variant) is still amazing, and enough for control at the population level. You as an individual should care about severe disease, and the vaccines with good trials stop that vs this strain. You as a population should care about sufficient suppression to stop spread, and keep hospitals available, and the novavax results are enough for that.

    If and when they need to be retargetted they will be highly effective again, even if they have lost effacacy now, which they might not have done. In addition, multiple spike proteins, or multiple protein sections can be targeted at once, and should produce robust responses against all of them.

    "That is cool" - Abraham Lincoln
  • StarZapperStarZapper Vermont, Bizzaro world.Registered User regular
    Have those studies actually included clinical trials, or are they still just going off the lab results testing the immune reaction in isolated cells? Last I knew the actual clinical trials were still ongoing, and likely the immune systems reaction are quite a bit more complicated than some lab test results. That said it's important to remember "less effective" is still "effective enough" and 1000% better than no vaccine, which is where I thought we'd still be a year ago today.

  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    edited February 2021
    StarZapper wrote: »
    Have those studies actually included clinical trials, or are they still just going off the lab results testing the immune reaction in isolated cells? Last I knew the actual clinical trials were still ongoing, and likely the immune systems reaction are quite a bit more complicated than some lab test results. That said it's important to remember "less effective" is still "effective enough" and 1000% better than no vaccine, which is where I thought we'd still be a year ago today.

    Lab testing of human Sera neutralizing activity. Free-floating antibodies only in a dish testing the ability of the virus to infect cells at various concentrations of Sera.

    Edit - To be clear, these are well conducted studies with consistant results. But the people conducting them don't seem to be unduly concerned, and they are saying in letters to journals that the vaccine should still be highly effective. It's the news media which is running with the "less is a disaster" story.

    This is not good news, but, we don't really know how it actually effects us. Honestly, vaccine hesitancy is probably a far greater concern right now.

    tbloxham on
    "That is cool" - Abraham Lincoln
  • StarZapperStarZapper Vermont, Bizzaro world.Registered User regular
    edited February 2021
    tbloxham wrote: »
    StarZapper wrote: »
    Have those studies actually included clinical trials, or are they still just going off the lab results testing the immune reaction in isolated cells? Last I knew the actual clinical trials were still ongoing, and likely the immune systems reaction are quite a bit more complicated than some lab test results. That said it's important to remember "less effective" is still "effective enough" and 1000% better than no vaccine, which is where I thought we'd still be a year ago today.

    Lab testing of human Sera neutralizing activity. Free-floating antibodies only in a dish testing the ability of the virus to infect cells at various concentrations of Sera.

    Edit - To be clear, these are well conducted studies with consistant results. But the people conducting them don't seem to be unduly concerned, and they are saying in letters to journals that the vaccine should still be highly effective. It's the news media which is running with the "less is a disaster" story.

    This is not good news, but, we don't really know how it actually effects us. Honestly, vaccine hesitancy is probably a far greater concern right now.

    Ok that's what I thought. So really this piece of "news" is just pure sensationalism and means diddly squat, until field studies are finished on actual people. To further the point, here's an article about the exact same study with a completely opposite headline of "Lab studies suggest vaccines can protect against coronavirus variant."

    https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/17/health/pfizer-vaccine-south-africa-variant/index.html

    StarZapper on
  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    StarZapper wrote: »
    tbloxham wrote: »
    StarZapper wrote: »
    Have those studies actually included clinical trials, or are they still just going off the lab results testing the immune reaction in isolated cells? Last I knew the actual clinical trials were still ongoing, and likely the immune systems reaction are quite a bit more complicated than some lab test results. That said it's important to remember "less effective" is still "effective enough" and 1000% better than no vaccine, which is where I thought we'd still be a year ago today.

    Lab testing of human Sera neutralizing activity. Free-floating antibodies only in a dish testing the ability of the virus to infect cells at various concentrations of Sera.

    Edit - To be clear, these are well conducted studies with consistant results. But the people conducting them don't seem to be unduly concerned, and they are saying in letters to journals that the vaccine should still be highly effective. It's the news media which is running with the "less is a disaster" story.

    This is not good news, but, we don't really know how it actually effects us. Honestly, vaccine hesitancy is probably a far greater concern right now.

    Ok that's what I thought. So really this piece of "news" is just pure sensationalism and means diddly squat, until field studies are finished on actual people. To further the point, here's an article about the exact same study with a completely opposite headline of "Lab studies suggest vaccines can protect against coronavirus variant."

    https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/17/health/pfizer-vaccine-south-africa-variant/index.html

    I mean, it doesn't mean nothing. But, the authors themselves are saying "this is a warning sign to make sure we all get vaccinated asap and stay ready to update things in the future", not "Dooooom!"

    This is another one of those experiments which could have given good news, and the good result would have been clear and unambiguous (and is vs the UK strain) but the "not clearly good" result is much more complicated. Because less is less, but its not easy to know right now if less matters.

    "That is cool" - Abraham Lincoln
  • That_GuyThat_Guy I don't wanna be that guy Registered User regular
    So, Buncombe County (where I live and work) is still only receiving fewer than 2000 first doses of the COVID vaccine every week. I've gotten so frustrated with it that I am emailing my elected officials. At the current rate it will take over 2.5 YEARS to fully vaccinate the entire county. I have been patiently waiting my turn but I am out of patience. Where the fuck are the 100 million doses promised? Where in the fuck are the other 200 million?

    I am regularly expected to work at medical facilities that perform COVID tests. I am so sick and fucking tired of fearing for my life every time I have to go onsite.

  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    That_Guy wrote: »
    So, Buncombe County (where I live and work) is still only receiving fewer than 2000 first doses of the COVID vaccine every week. I've gotten so frustrated with it that I am emailing my elected officials. At the current rate it will take over 2.5 YEARS to fully vaccinate the entire county. I have been patiently waiting my turn but I am out of patience. Where the fuck are the 100 million doses promised? Where in the fuck are the other 200 million?

    I am regularly expected to work at medical facilities that perform COVID tests. I am so sick and fucking tired of fearing for my life every time I have to go onsite.

    Buncombe County seems to have delivered about 11.2 doses per 100 people

    https://data.democratandchronicle.com/covid-19-vaccine-tracker/north-carolina/buncombe-county/37021/
    https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/

    You are running at about 66% of the national rate and a bit less than that of your state level rate. Which is clearly sucky, but is far from the bottom of the bell curve. You are worse than any state is doing on average, but, there's big variability inside the states.

    Likely you have some kind of demographics oddness which is bumping you down the priority list. Not many old people maybe? A small number of medical workers? Could be a variety of reasons.

    The new orders literally have no effect right now, its the companies achieving better yields than expected by like 5%, which accumulates to them being able to deliver a whole big extra tranch of doses by the end of May or something. Vaccination rates have doubled since mid january, based on forecasts, they should double again by mid march. The big new dose orders are the companies saying, "We anticipate being able to support another doubling after that"

    "That is cool" - Abraham Lincoln
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