Updates on [SARS2/covid-19] (reboot)

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  • GilgaronGilgaron Registered User regular
    Polaritie wrote: »
    With a flu virus though I'd imagine the timescale for making a vaccine against a novel strain is dramatically shorter? I know normally they're prepping them like a year ahead of time, but that's mainly for manufacturing time and such, right?

    yes

  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    Jragghen wrote: »

    Concerning, but the article mentions that current flu vaccines are likely possible to modify to fight this strain.
    Current flu vaccines do not appear to protect against it, although they could be adapted to do so if needed.

    Not something to ignore at all, but hopefully something that can be kept contained, and addressed much more quickly.

    Our advantage with flu is that we know how to make a vaccine. Its a matter of when, and how good. You just need to predict the strain and pick your mutation to protect against. You have to kind hope you get lucky with your predictions because of how fast flu mutates, but, we know how to do it and with sufficient deployed resources could do it faster.

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  • MorganVMorganV Registered User regular
    VishNub wrote: »
    And anything we do behavior-wise to curb COVID will also curb influenza.

    *looks at US response and behavior to curb COVID*

    Yeah, this isn't going to end well.

    That a significant percentage of people are apparently willing to cough up their own lungs to own the libs*, means this is just going to get compounded.

    * Up until the moment they actually get sick when they'll either have a change of heart that will change noone else's mind, or whine that the government should have done something.

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  • ToxTox I kill threads Punch DimensionRegistered User regular
    tbloxham wrote: »
    Jragghen wrote: »

    Concerning, but the article mentions that current flu vaccines are likely possible to modify to fight this strain.
    Current flu vaccines do not appear to protect against it, although they could be adapted to do so if needed.

    Not something to ignore at all, but hopefully something that can be kept contained, and addressed much more quickly.

    Our advantage with flu is that we know how to make a vaccine. Its a matter of when, and how good. You just need to predict the strain and pick your mutation to protect against. You have to kind hope you get lucky with your predictions because of how fast flu mutates, but, we know how to do it and with sufficient deployed resources could do it faster.

    Yeah, to put it into a more lay process, it's probably a bit like "which type of chicken dish are we preparing this year for your birthday?" as opposed to being given a Chopped basket and 30 minutes on the clock.

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  • MazzyxMazzyx Comedy Gold Registered User regular
    As Coronavirus Surges, How Much Testing Does Your State Need To Subdue The Virus?

    NPR in cooperation with Harvard Health did a study on how much testing the US would need to limit COVID nation wide verse suppressing it nation wide. Along with what states are getting there and where they are not.
    The coronavirus keeps spreading around the United States. New hot spots are emerging and heating up by the day. The death toll keeps mounting. So how can the U.S. beat back the relentless onslaught of this deadly virus?

    Public health experts agree on one powerful weapon that's gotten a lot of attention but apparently still needs a lot more: testing.

    A new analysis that researchers at Harvard conducted for NPR finds that more states have begun to do enough testing to keep their outbreaks from getting worse, but most are still falling short.

    And perhaps more importantly, a consortium of public health researchers, including Harvard, finds that only a handful are doing enough testing to effectively suppress the virus, that is, to bring new cases down to a low enough level to allow everyday life to return to some semblance of normalcy.

    ...

    Now, daily testing has doubled to about 500,000 nationally, and 18 states plus Washington, D.C., are currently testing enough to keep their outbreaks from getting out of control. But the national totals are far below what the Harvard group says is needed to contain the current outbreaks — 1 million tests daily — and yet farther from a level that could truly beat back the pandemic in this country.

    "I see that as progress that we now have more states that are able to manage and mitigate the virus," Jha says. But he adds, "what we all really want is to suppress the virus — to get the virus level so low that we don't have large numbers of people getting sick and dying and that we can open up our economy."

    v44i9uqf4492.png
    How to achieve suppression

    So how much testing would be needed to go beyond mitigation and actually achieve suppression?

    For that, the Harvard Global Health group developed a new metric in collaboration with other academic groups across the country: They estimate that communities need to test widely enough so that the number of people testing positive for the virus is 3% or lower. That's the positivity rate that other countries, such as Italy and South Korea, achieved to control their epidemics.

    According to the new analysis, the U.S. overall would need 4.3 million tests per day, with the amount of testing in each state varying depending on the current size of their outbreaks, to achieve that goal. (This analysis assumes the true size of each state's outbreak to be three to five times larger than what's captured in confirmed case numbers.)

    ...

    Challenges ahead


    According to the new analysis, only four states are doing enough testing for suppression: Alaska, Hawaii, Montana and Vermont — all relatively small populations with small outbreaks. West Virginia is close to its target.

    Among states with large outbreaks, New Jersey is close to being in a position to suppress the virus, showing that even a larger outbreak can be brought under control.

    "I do think it's possible. It's not going to be easy. But it requires leadership and it requires a commitment from our country that says, 'We actually want to open up our country safely and we want to get our lives back,'" Jha says.

    Others agree that the need to ramp up testing is urgently needed, but argue that it remains a daunting goal.

    "It's disappointing and it's frustrating that we don't have the capacity to get this under control," says Dr. Marcus Plescia, chief medical director for the Association of State and Territorial Health Officials. "This is particularly concerning now that we're seeing surges in cases. We clearly need to be able test more people."

    There is a lot in this article. Including the ability to check your own state. Also again it is so frustrating, it seems American exceptionalism means we are exceptional at failing.

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  • ElvenshaeElvenshae Registered User regular
    The EU has now officially banned travelers from the US, Russia, and Brazil from entering as it reopens, confirming the policy proposal that was floated a few days ago: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/eu-formalizes-reopening-barring-travelers-from-us/ar-BB169MiL?ocid=DE_20200630_ENUS_coronavirus_1

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  • enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    Staff and teachers would have to wear face masks at all times.
    All students would have to wear face masks in hallways and common areas and on buses. Every student would have to use hand sanitizer before getting on the bus.
    Students in grade 6 through 12 would have to wear face masks at all times; younger students wouldn't have to wear face masks in classrooms.
    It would be recommended that desks be placed six feet apart and students and teachers social distance, even in the classroom.
    Schools would have to work with local health departments on screening protocols.
    No indoor assemblies with students from more than one classroom would be allowed.
    It would be recommended that most meals be served in the classroom or outdoors. It would be recommended that meal times would be staggered to allow social distancing in the cafeteria if it was being used.
    Athletics would have to follow the MHSAA guidance and rules. Spectators would be allowed if they are wearing face masks and maintaining social distancing.

    It's flexible based on prevalence of the virus. So some of the UP might not have to do all of this. This is the second highest restrictions, if cases are worse we all go home again.

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  • MazzyxMazzyx Comedy Gold Registered User regular
    Pandemics Explained-This dashboard is built around data on the pandemic that is to step in for the Feds

    This map does comparisons not just on total cases but more as a percent of population. It allows comparisons across counties. Standard government color coding of green/yellow/orange/red. With recommended actions. Worth checking.

    Though powerBI was breaking when I was checking today.

    This what it is suppose to look like.

    kkyk5c4np1x7.png

    https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/07/01/885263658/green-yellow-orange-or-red-this-new-tool-shows-covid-19-risk-in-your-county

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  • JeanJean Papa bear Gatineau, QuébecRegistered User regular
    Québec announced yesterday than masks will be mandatory on public transit starting July 13. However, unmasked people won't actually be refused entry until July 25.

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  • Metzger MeisterMetzger Meister Registered User regular
    Guess I gotta try and stay caught up on this

  • Blackhawk1313Blackhawk1313 Registered User regular
    Bay County, FL out of ICU beds as of now, just an example picture painted here in the panhandle of what rural areas are going to start experiencing. Sigh.

    https://www.mypanhandle.com/news/icu-beds-in-bay-county-are-full/
    Florida’s Agency for Healthcare Administration reported that all of the ICU beds in Bay County are full.

  • ZibblsnrtZibblsnrt Registered User regular
  • Undead ScottsmanUndead Scottsman Registered User regular
    I feel like if nuclear weapons weren't a thing, America would have gotten its shit kicked in in a long time ago.

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  • PolaritiePolaritie Sleepy Registered User regular
    I feel like if nuclear weapons weren't a thing, America would have gotten its shit kicked in in a long time ago.

    Unlikely, imo. Being across the ocean from almost everyone else makes it really hard to actually invade or anything until around the time period of WWII anyways... and after WWII the US has like 70% of the world's industrial production or something because everyone else got bombed flat. I think without nukes the cold war would have gone hotter, but I don't know that history would have shifted that much.

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  • daveNYCdaveNYC Why universe hate Waspinator? Registered User regular
    Zibblsnrt wrote: »

    The vaccine? Hells. Given the incompetence of the Federal government’s response so far, I’m willing to bet that a large chunk of the remdesivir supply won’t go to where it’s needed and might just straight up disappear.

    Shut up, Mr. Burton! You were not brought upon this world to get it!
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  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    Bay County, FL out of ICU beds as of now, just an example picture painted here in the panhandle of what rural areas are going to start experiencing. Sigh.

    https://www.mypanhandle.com/news/icu-beds-in-bay-county-are-full/
    Florida’s Agency for Healthcare Administration reported that all of the ICU beds in Bay County are full.

    This story is both tragedy and idiocy. From the statements, the beds are full, but, a big reason the beds are full is because of peoples return to normal behavior and normal rates of injuries etc. So while covid cases are spiking, the fact that everyone is just being an idiot and getting hurt means the network has barely any capacity left. In addition, the speed of reopening in florida meant that the system had no time to clear out backlogged non essential surgeries which are also occupying beds.

    Its a perfect storm of mistakes which would have been neatly prevented by a slow and gradual reopening with clear triggers for pausing and rollbacks.

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  • stopgapstopgap Registered User regular
    I am afraid to ask but how bad is nc? My area seems to be way less careful than they should be.

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  • PhillisherePhillishere Registered User regular
    stopgap wrote: »
    I am afraid to ask but how bad is nc? My area seems to be way less careful than they should be.

    Rising but holding steady compared to further south. The rural and urban areas are having very different experiences, as the rural areas are red Trump strongholds and the blue follow the lead of the Democratic governor.

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  • enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    stopgap wrote: »
    I am afraid to ask but how bad is nc? My area seems to be way less careful than they should be.

    Linear growth with weird reporting lags (M/Tu are the lowest, F/Sa the highest). Currently at ~1500/day. That number is increasing, but the curve isn't exponential. If you had a less shitty legislature, it'd probably be going better.

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  • AntoshkaAntoshka Miauen Oil Change LazarusRegistered User regular
    In Covid related news here in NZ, we still have no established community transmission, but there have been cases showing in Isolation at the border as NZers return home. So far, despite prior breaches, we seem to have gotten lucky.

    However, the Health Minister, David Clark, has today resigned from his position - something that has been on the cards since he breached the lockdown rules early on. At the time, Jacinda Ardern said in normal circumstances she would sack him, but that she didn't want to cause issued with a new Minister being established at the time. It seems that has now run out, and he has left the portfolio

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  • MazzyxMazzyx Comedy Gold Registered User regular
    stopgap wrote: »
    I am afraid to ask but how bad is nc? My area seems to be way less careful than they should be.

    I recommend this new tracking site would work for this.

    https://globalepidemics.org/july-6-2020-state-testing-targets/

    Its Harvard with a bunch of other research groups. Goes down to the county level. Is generalized to cases per 100k so you can compare across populations okay.

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  • JragghenJragghen Registered User regular
    https://www.sacbee.com/news/coronavirus/article243931942.html

    19 counties in CA are closing a lot of stuff again, but most notably indoor dining. Outdoor is still permitted, I believe.

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  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    Jragghen wrote: »
    https://www.sacbee.com/news/coronavirus/article243931942.html

    19 counties in CA are closing a lot of stuff again, but most notably indoor dining. Outdoor is still permitted, I believe.

    Should never have opened in the first place. You can't open any 'luxury' item until cases are in a sustained decrease via any applied method you choose.

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  • SolarSolar Registered User regular
    daveNYC wrote: »
    Zibblsnrt wrote: »

    The vaccine? Hells. Given the incompetence of the Federal government’s response so far, I’m willing to bet that a large chunk of the remdesivir supply won’t go to where it’s needed and might just straight up disappear.

    I mean, you guys need a lot of it

    The galling thing is that... You're open. You bought all the stocks but you're open! You're making more cases so you need more stocks! Like come on!

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  • daveNYCdaveNYC Why universe hate Waspinator? Registered User regular
    Jragghen wrote: »
    https://www.sacbee.com/news/coronavirus/article243931942.html

    19 counties in CA are closing a lot of stuff again, but most notably indoor dining. Outdoor is still permitted, I believe.

    We've had outdoor dining in the Czech Republic for quite a while now, and it seems to have not had a huge impact on the numbers. I imagine the number of active cases might make a difference there, if infected people put out X amount of virus and you need Y amount to get infected, then it's a matter of how many infected people there are vs the dilution from being outdoors. Or maybe not.
    Solar wrote: »
    daveNYC wrote: »
    Zibblsnrt wrote: »

    The vaccine? Hells. Given the incompetence of the Federal government’s response so far, I’m willing to bet that a large chunk of the remdesivir supply won’t go to where it’s needed and might just straight up disappear.

    I mean, you guys need a lot of it

    The galling thing is that... You're open. You bought all the stocks but you're open! You're making more cases so you need more stocks! Like come on!

    Yeah, like in a sane world the USA would have locked down again and there'd be some system in place to try and get the (semi) effective drugs to the people who need them. So the USA would probably still end up with a lot of the supply, but there'd still be some available for the countries with better numbers who just need a small number of doses for a few patients. Instead we have Trump playing the role of Smaug gathering up all the valuables while Republican governors do their best interpretation of the mayor from Jaws. So it's the worst of everything because the USA will be denying anyone else access to the drug and there are going to be so many cases in the USA that having access to the drug won't make as big a difference as it should because they're going to max out the healthcare system which'll mean people who need the drug might not get it because they won't even be able to get into the hospital (or won't go because they've heard it's full, etc).

    In more quantitative news, there were only 92 new cases yesterday in the CR. There's a map showing cases on a regional basis and everything seems to be centered around the coal mine in the east. So... maybe things are still somewhat contained here. The spike in cases over the past week just from that one initial spreading incident is insane though. We went from 50 or so new cases a day to a peak of 240, wear a mask and work from home if you have that option folks.

    And masks are no longer required unless you're on the Prague metro. Rather stupid because it's not like the buses or trams have notably better external airflow happening, and I have similar issues with the lack of masks for shops and malls and the like. The government seems to have decided that getting back to normal is more important than keeping some minimal regulations in place that might give us a bit of an edge if/when the numbers start creeping up again. Masks indoors is about the easiest thing to mandate and for people to comply with, and it seems to work. Yet here we are.

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  • MayabirdMayabird Pecking at the keyboardRegistered User regular
    The country with the highest positivity rate in the world is now Mexico at 50%* partly because the government is cheap and won't help with funding of widespread testing, and partly because the president is being the same sort of denialist dumbass as in other countries I could name.

    Speaking of dumbass government responses, the UK has been neglecting to report positive cases. Specifically, anything tested in a commercial lab isn't reported for the local area that it came from. It'll go on national tallies, but not a regional tally, so, say, Leicester officially lists only 80 new cases over a two week period but had more than ten times more positive test results. Thus, people can think that their area is just fine and dandy and what's everybody so upset about, why not go visit some friends and go drinking? Between this and other stupidities, looks like the UK is working on that second wave right now.

    But in "not everything and everyone totally sucks" news, Mongolia donated a planeful of PPE to the Navaho Nation, via the first nonstop flight between Mongolia and the US. Of course, that's due to massive systemic discrimination and general failure in the United States that it even came to this...


    *Bolsonaro's having Brazil hide more of its numbers now so they might actually be worse somehow. This reminds me of the Ebola epidemic in West Africa, and how confused and frustrated I was with the government handling in Sierra Leone and Guinea. Guinea just absolutely gave no fucks about the hemorrhagic fever epidemic that started in their own country, and the Leonese government actively sabotaged data collection and hid the scale of the epidemic. Liberia was the only country trying to work in good faith but was stymied by lack of resources. All in all, turns out, a microcosm of worldwide pandemic reactions.

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  • JavenJaven Registered User regular
    edited July 2
    Florida beat Texas and Arizona to be the first surge state to break 10k cases in a single day

    Javen on
  • nexuscrawlernexuscrawler Registered User regular
    Javen wrote: »
    Florida beat Texas and Arizona to be the first surge state to break 10k cases in a single day

    jesus

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  • Blackhawk1313Blackhawk1313 Registered User regular
    Javen wrote: »
    Florida beat Texas and Arizona to be the first surge state to break 10k cases in a single day

    jesus

    We’re number one??...

    Bay County blew up with 173 new cases, the increases had been only as much as 10-30 a day previously so this is a huge jump. Exponential growth about to teach some math lessons to idiots.

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  • Undead ScottsmanUndead Scottsman Registered User regular
    We all knew how this was going to play out, but watching it happen in real time is harrowing.

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  • ceresceres When the last moon is cast over the last star of morning And the future has past without even a last desperate warningRegistered User, Moderator mod
    Mayabird wrote: »
    But in "not everything and everyone totally sucks" news, Mongolia donated a planeful of PPE to the Navaho Nation, via the first nonstop flight between Mongolia and the US. Of course, that's due to massive systemic discrimination and general failure in the United States that it even came to this...

    That's pretty awesome though. Reminds me of the nonstop SK flight to Baltimore greeted by national guard to make sure the supplies weren't disappeared. Other countries are doing better by some of our more federally neglected populations than we are. The Navaho Nation needs this bad.

    And it seems like all is dying, and would leave the world to mourn
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  • TryCatcherTryCatcher Registered User regular
    So, still on Peru and there has been some developments.
    • The curve finally started to slow down.
    • Things opened this month with appropriate precautions were malls. Including hairdressers, so was able to get a haircut. Yay! Also offices, though mine decided to just WFH through the rest of the year.
    • Big developments nationwide is having to deal with an asshole trying to get a monopoly on oxygen tanks and a lot of families dealing with overpricing until that was slapped down by the government with heavy sanctions. Same company also managed to qualify to the government grants given to companies so they don't go broke on the pandemic. That's under investigation.
    • Another big development is the government and the private clinics (that were known for charging 200$+for a COVID test..that the government is supplying to them for free) getting to an agreement to get their capacity for COVID cases. A lot of bluster and overblown rhetoric for it (there's going to be mass nationalizations! Full communist takeover!) until the government got fed up and told the private clinics to just take the goddamn deal or else there would be mass nationalizations. The private companies even got what they wanted, a fixed rate of little less than 16k $ per patient, no matter the time of stay.

  • Commander ZoomCommander Zoom Registered User regular
    Exponential growth about to teach some math lessons to idiots.
    We all knew how this was going to play out, but watching it happen in real time is harrowing.

    We managed to jump back a few squares on the chessboard, but now, here we are again.

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  • Jealous DevaJealous Deva Registered User regular
    edited July 2
    ceres wrote: »
    Mayabird wrote: »
    But in "not everything and everyone totally sucks" news, Mongolia donated a planeful of PPE to the Navaho Nation, via the first nonstop flight between Mongolia and the US. Of course, that's due to massive systemic discrimination and general failure in the United States that it even came to this...

    That's pretty awesome though. Reminds me of the nonstop SK flight to Baltimore greeted by national guard to make sure the supplies weren't disappeared. Other countries are doing better by some of our more federally neglected populations than we are. The Navaho Nation needs this bad.

    A lot of interesting things there...

    Apparently Mongolia just opened its first international airport big enough to do intercontinental flights and will now be offering passenger service to the US regularly and this is how they wanted to do their maiden flight? Pretty cool.

    Jealous Deva on
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  • AbbalahAbbalah Registered User regular
    ceres wrote: »
    Mayabird wrote: »
    But in "not everything and everyone totally sucks" news, Mongolia donated a planeful of PPE to the Navaho Nation, via the first nonstop flight between Mongolia and the US. Of course, that's due to massive systemic discrimination and general failure in the United States that it even came to this...

    That's pretty awesome though. Reminds me of the nonstop SK flight to Baltimore greeted by national guard to make sure the supplies weren't disappeared. Other countries are doing better by some of our more federally neglected populations than we are. The Navaho Nation needs this bad.

    A lot of interesting things there...

    Apparently Mongolia just opened its first international airport big enough to do intercontinental flights and will now be offering passenger service to the US regularly and this is how they wanted to do their maiden flight? Pretty cool.

    I appreciate both the humanitarian gesture and the fact that right now using the first flight of your international route to deliver medical supplies to the US before you start regular passenger service is a lot like casually offering your date a breath mint before you kiss.

    "Hey, can't help but notice that your dinner choices were...let's say 'aromatic'. Here's a little something to make this next part less of a risk for me"

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  • MazzyxMazzyx Comedy Gold Registered User regular
    I am pretty sure that Ireland donated directly to the Navajo due to historic relationships between the two.

    The Irish are repaying a favor from 173 years ago in Native Americans’ fight against coronavirus
    More than 170 years ago, the Choctaw Nation of Oklahoma didn’t have much.

    The tribe suffered devastation starting in 1831, when it became the first of many Native American tribes to be forcibly removed from its homeland in the Southeastern United States in the deadly Trail of Tears to areas known as “Indian Territory.” Disease, starvation and severe winter weather took the lives of at least 4,000 Choctaws and thousands of other Native Americans in what some historians have called the “Indian Holocaust.”

    Sixteen years after they arrived in what is now Oklahoma, the Choctaws tried to rebuild their lives. At a tribal meeting, they heard of families struggling to survive Ireland’s infamous Potato Famine. They took up a collection, pooled together $170 and sent it to a group collecting money in New York.

    Fast-forward to the worst pandemic in modern times: The Irish are repaying the generosity they received two centuries earlier from Native Americans.

    About 24,000 donors from Ireland have given roughly $820,000 in an online fundraiser operated by Native American volunteers to buy food and supplies for families on the Hopi and Navajo reservations in Utah, Arizona and New Mexico. On the Navajo Nation, the pandemic has struck the reservation, with more than 3,200 infections and 102 deaths as of Monday. Thirty Hopi tribal members have tested positive for the virus at a local health clinic.

    Also it should be broadcasted from all channels. But the Navajo are being killed by this virus and no one seems to care in the media. And it is driving me crazy.

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  • OghulkOghulk Registered User regular
    edited July 2
    Just distributed in the last 5 minutes.

    Gov Abbott of Texas just issued a statewide mandate to wear facemasks in public and limited gatherings to 10 people or less.

    E: correction, allowing city and county governments to limit gatherings.

    Oghulk on
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  • JedocJedoc Once to start a new life and once just to start a fireRegistered User regular
    I can't believe that Kansas and Texas both require facemasks and Oklahoma is doubling down on never requiring facemasks.

    This is even more shameful than Oklahoma usually is.

    GDdCWMm.jpg
    Special KElvenshae
  • enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    Michigan's jumped back over 500 cases today.

    Herbert Hoover got 40% of the vote in 1932. Friendly reminder.
    Warren 2020
  • TomantaTomanta Registered User regular
    Oghulk wrote: »
    Just distributed in the last 5 minutes.

    Gov Abbott of Texas just issued a statewide mandate to wear facemasks in public and limited gatherings to 10 people or less.

    E: correction, allowing city and county governments to limit gatherings.

    And the mask order applies to counties with 20+ cases.

    I wonder what this means for the "Masks Off" Texas GOP convention in Houston in a couple of weeks. The Houston mayor is "They should cancel it. They should really cancel it. But I'm a Democrat so it'd look pretty bad if I ordered it cancelled."

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