everyone was throwing house parties and setting off illegal fireworks in the streets and in the hills.
as soon as the sun set they just kept popping off from random quarters.
(someone behind our apartment was setting them off, and we did get a great show, tbh.)
they were setting off fireworks during fire season without precautions, less than a week after a major fire burned thousands of acres.
nobody is wearing masks, nobody is distancing, everyone had a get-together for the holiday.
they do not understand cause and effect, they do not understand caution, we're so fucked.
The UK's relationship with alcohol is so problematic that this was never going to go well. Pubs reopening should have been one of the last steps in lockdown being lifted here.
Isn't there a recent tweet thread that said looking at the cases/deaths ratio and drawing a conclusion off that was actually entirely falling into a statistics trap? Like, you're looking at the national numbers when you have to examine local instances because of where and how it's spread.
That proposal straight up called these other excuses (now it's hitting young people, we treat it better, etc) as bogus and said you'll start seeing the expected deaths skyrocket soon.
Yes, it's called the Simpsons Paradox and is pretty interesting in how it works. Basically comes from poorly combined data sets.
Iirc from NYC / early hotspots, the timeline is typically 5-7 days from infection to symptoms and - in cases that progress to death hospitalization 14-21 days after infection and death after 21 days. Sometimes faster, sometimes slower.
So deaths should lag new cases by around two weeks, possibly with a few days extra based on wider (but still inadequate) testing.
Testing is still inadequate, but it definitely is not meaningless. There is a lot of unsupported confidence here and people need to be careful sharing their opinions or interpretation without qualifiers. There are real statisticians and epidemiologists who definitely don't consider data collected so far to be worthless. Cite the ones who are saying so or qualify your opinion.
Honestly the data isn't worthless, but comparing infection rates now to march very much is. We were testing around 100k a day nationally then, we're now up to 500k tests a day. Huge difference in what we're detecting now vs then. Just going off the deaths we saw back then, and an approximate 1% mortality rate we were likely seeing ~300k a day of infections at the last peak. So while things aren't quite as bad yet, this time in march we were already slamming the brakes and shutting things down vs the full speed ahead recklessness we see now. July is gonna get real ugly real fast.
Honestly the data isn't worthless, but comparing infection rates now to march very much is. We were testing around 100k a day nationally then, we're now up to 500k tests a day. Huge difference in what we're detecting now vs then. Just going off the deaths we saw back then, and an approximate 1% mortality rate we were likely seeing ~300k a day of infections at the last peak. So while things aren't quite as bad yet, this time in march we were already slamming the brakes and shutting things down vs the full speed ahead recklessness we see now. July is gonna get real ugly real fast.
Indeed. Hopefully a lot of places have another 8 weeks of lockdown left in them.
Our real mistake here was that if we had kept up our stricter (which was already not strict) level of lockdown for like 3 or 4 more weeks, wed have achieved a big fall in cases and wed have got a good balance between tests, cases and population. Now we're back at like, square 3 (not quite 1) with a need for another 8-10 weeks in proper lockdown (maybe less with more contact tracing and testing available now, and better understanding of masking) and i dont know if well get anything like that for like, 3 more weeks, atwhich point we'll need an even longer lockdown....
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FencingsaxIt is difficult to get a man to understand, when his salary depends upon his not understandingGNU Terry PratchettRegistered Userregular
New Jersey added an estimated 1800 deaths last week. I worry that other states are purposely undercounting.
New Jersey added an estimated 1800 deaths last week. I worry that other states are purposely undercounting.
For the record, those deaths were likely not due to any kind of shady shit.
Back when things were really fucking bad we had usually a couple of DoAs every morning and only a fraction of them had been tested and confirmed for Covid but almost all of them had symptoms the night before according to family members.
I do wonder if they're counting people who were diabetics who suddenly were going into cardiac arrest after contracting covid - we had a few of those too.
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TetraNitroCubaneThe DjinneratorAt the bottom of a bottleRegistered Userregular
It's anecdotal data, to be sure, but this seems to be more and more a common refrain:
I’m 28 years old. I caught Covid and have spent half my waking hours lying down for the last 3 months, and can’t walk more than 5 minutes without getting extremely out of breath.
Take caution but you’re not bloody immune if you’re young.
Last tweet for today, I promise. I’m 3 months on from showing symptoms. I can’t live my life. I’m still being cared for by my folks. I am keeping my head up and staying busy but it’s hard. Please take precautions and please stay safe.
Extreme fatigue and weakness seem to persist months after 'recovery', even for people who don't wind up in the hospital.
There's a real chance that some people who even get mild cases will be disabled for life. The 'recovery' process appears strange and non-linear, with good days and awful days happening even months after clearing the virus.
Timeline of self-reported symptoms from this individual under the spoiler - Warning that is gets very long.
Fever ✅ Cough ✅ Weak muscles ✅ Nausea ✅ Fatigue ✅ Still not sure where this is going next folks but I’m completely isolated for the foreseeable. Send good vibes and stay the fuck inside
I’ve only been displaying symptoms since Monday really, I’m still feeling worse - really very tired and weak, muscle aches are starting. Internal thermostat is still bouncing over the place. My breathing is ok, but I can’t take as deep a breath as I could before. Morale is ok!
Day 5 of symptoms, cough & fever gone, I am just still extremely tired and my body feels as weak as having run a 10k. Still easily winded, out of breath just going to fill out up my glass. Have been horizontal since Monday. Holding up ok. So far felt like the worst flu I’ve had
Day 6 and feeling a bit better, less weak, less out of breath, think I’m on the mend 🙌
Day 8 - I had a few issues with a tight chest and shortness of breath over the weekend, laboured breathing just sat in my armchair, but the care I got from NHS 111 on the phone was excellent and they are doing a fantastic job. Feel better today, back to a few days ago 📈
Day 11 - a small victory in that today is the first day I’ve been well enough to catch up on the dishes but yeah, I can’t tell you how happy this has made me
Day 13 - my days are now just milestones of domestic achievement. Two week old bins 🚮
Day 15 - in not so great news, I have had a persistent shortness of breath that won’t shift since 10pm last night. I was feeling great on Saturday but a 111 GP advised to just rest and recover. It’s very frustrating, but very easy tonight to be grateful it’s still relatively mild
Day 19 - my breathing has improved, still feel tired and weak all the time, the cough has come back. I’ve set my expectations way back it might take me another week or two to recover. Glad I did dishes when I did!! Can’t do them now!
Day 22: still extremely weak and tired and so achey I make ungodly noises whenever I try to move, been told this is likely the post viral stage of recovery which is good. Mentally been difficult but georgie_rharris got me a falafel wrap delivered to me that was so good I cried
And in a first I managed to watch an entire movie in only three sittings my stamina has been so poor. Getting there though, just focusing on keeping myself rested and hydrated
Day 29 - into my 5th week, feeling a bit perkier, muscles still very physically weak and I’ve noticed how much they have shrunk everywhere. Realising it will take me months to recover fully but more upbeat than last week! He’s me enjoying the sun sitting at my windae
And if anyone was wondering what happens when I’m living alone while in quarantine & sick for 4 weeks it is: start wearing kilt socks and crocs as the perfect complement of comfort, warmth and grip
Day 37 - in the last week I’ve moved in with my parents once I was as sure as I could that I wasn’t infectious. I was struggling to look after myself. Some signs of progress - from struggling to make it up the stairs first day here to now it only being a bit uncomfortable is good
Day 45 - some tentative improvements from last week, I am stronger and generally less tense. Did have a ten minute walk on Tues which led to a day of shortness of breath & tight chest but it’s all progress. Lucky to have the sun. Torturing my parents with my horrid beard.
Day 52 - it’s been a bit rough, my mood has taken a dip & it’s been tough. This is the first time I’m saying this publicly but I have bipolar disorder & I’m in a depressive phase. It’s all compounded like this & I can’t do my usual coping mechanisms of exercise & cooking. BUT Tentative signs of progress, some tiredness has lifted and some muscle strength returned. There have been so many false summits so I’m just taking this cautiously. Glad I am with my family. And I attempted to tackle the beard and hit 17th C Golden Age Dutch painter 👨🏻🎨.
8 weeks since symptoms first started - today was a big step. I made my first meal from scratch in the last two months. A scrabbly pesto w/ spaghetti that was so, so delicious. Just pesto done in a food processor + cooking pasta but I’m very proud of myself. Full body proud pic!
Week 9 - still slowly making progress, I started on new medication to see if it will help my shortness of breath and tightness of chest. Drove my car for the first time in 2 months just slowly around my hometown to test the water, and despite the jelly legs after, went well
I picked up and moved an aluminium chair about, 15-20 metres across the garden? And i was so out of breath it took me ten minutes to catch it again. I am improving!! But I am, to borrow a phrase from my Aussie dad, still crook
Week 11. I wrote at length about my experiences here in LabourHame, the story so far pretty much from soup to nuts & some reflection on where I've been lucky that I didn't fall through the safety net
My last few days have been not so good, progress is frustratingly non-linear (and seemingly non-Euclidean...); fatigue, muscle weakness & breathing issues at rest have all returned. I am, however, through the worst of my previous depressive phase and have a more positive mindset
Week 13: the fatigue, muscle weakness and joint pain (in my knees esp) have gotten worse this last week and I’ve been kept from sleeping with slight shortness of breath. Frustrating, but I’m just locked into a rollercoaster - trying to enjoy the ride and smile for the photo
I’ve pulled my activity back a bit and trying to be consistent. Still hopeful & keeping my head up. I’m Sorry if you’ve sent me a message and I haven’t responded - I have dozens and dozens to get to and I want each response to be genuine and heartfelt, which takes energy and time
I’m also starting to think about when lockdown starts to lift, and people go back to “normal” and socialisation becomes more irl and less online, the folk in long term recoveries will feel even more left out. I’ve sat out of Zoom calls, let alone going to the pub.
I spoke to BBC world service about my experiences and also shared with Melanie Montano, whose experiences chime with mine. And the BBC wrote up the Drivetime interview; which was the 5th most read item on BBC News last Tuesday morning, has been translated into Spanish & Portuguese and shared across the world. This really strikes a chord with folk, it’s very humbling
It feels like some symptoms are developing or even returning: some GI issues, my heart was racing at nearly 100bpm just lying down last night, my muscles are weak again, fatigue has been slightly better last two days but it just feels like my body is a random number generator now
Last tweet for today, I promise. I’m 3 months on from showing symptoms. I can’t live my life. I’m still being cared for by my folks. I am keeping my head up and staying busy but it’s hard. Please take precautions and please stay safe.
Day 100! Symptom run down: I am weak in the legs (have been for about 2 weeks) esp knees. No aches or pains, +ve. Little bit energetic today, but do have been tired. Would normally be tempted to jump up and do things but maintaining my rest & exertion schedule the best I can
Maybe this is the start of a good spell and then a relapse, maybe it’s something to hope for, who knows. I’ve been on this rollercoaster long enough just to accept it 😂 Just trying to take it as easy as possible!
Even when we get up to a million cases a day that would still be 6 to 8 months before cases start dying down, assuming long term immunity. By that point we would basically see the collapse of healthcare in the US and panicked people crashing the economy.
How many additional deaths are estimated due to hospitals closing to other, treatable illnesses?
He's a shy overambitious dog-catcher on the wrong side of the law. She's an orphaned psychic mercenary with the power to bend men's minds. They fight crime!
The UK's relationship with alcohol is so problematic that this was never going to go well. Pubs reopening should have been one of the last steps in lockdown being lifted here.
And yet, that's exactly why it was never going to be.
I would caution against assuming that these anecdotal cases of people having long-lasting symptoms are the norm without seeing studies to that effect. My sister and her fiancée both got it (tested positive, recovered) and are both doing fine now. Her fiancée was sick enough to go to the emergency room at one point too, and was sick for a month; from what I've heard she's fully recovered now. That's anecdotal too, of course, but I'm not saying it to try to state "See, you'll be fine!" I'm just illustrating the point that we don't know the prevalence of long-lasting cases.
All of that said, of course I agree with the message that even young people should be very careful and should not take it lightly. I mean, the most important thing is to be socially responsible and not spread it to more-vulnerable people, and yeah, even young people can have serious cases. But even if you assume you'll be okay, and even if you're enough of a selfish goose not to care if you get someone killed, who the hell wants to be laid up with something along the lines of the flu for a couple of weeks?? I've done that--it sucks, and I'm not eager to relive it.
OremLK on
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WeaverWho are you?What do you want?Registered Userregular
Even if these stories about the long term stuff are straight up fabrications(not accusing anyone of that, just for the sake of the point I'm going for), it's enough to make me more nervous about going into work everyday than I've been in a while. And I haven't dropped any safety measures or anything.
There have been some case reports of steroids helping in these kinds of cases, so hopefully there’s a treatment, though its all experimental at this point.
It wouldn’t be that unusual for a virus to trigger a persistent autoimmune response, especially in the first few months where the virus proteins probably haven’t been fully cleared.
We’ve transitioned to having groceries delivered, where before we were going to the store ourselves every couple weeks.
But even going to the ATM to get cash for tips (because grocery delivery services insist on treating their employees like dogshit) has become an anxiety-inducing experience
A lot of the discussion around these descriptions just makes me think people are starting to see what the incredible variability inherent in biological systems means in real terms for people. This isn't unique to COVID. You can infect three people with the same bacteria. One may finish their course of oral antibiotics as an outpatient. One may crash into the ICU, nearly die, but turn around and be back at work in a week. And one may have multiple end-organ injuries with debilitating consequences for the rest of their life. It's why you can have chicken pox parties where most kids do just fine, but some children get varicella encephalitis leading to permanent brain damage.
Bodies are weird, and we're really bad at predicting who reacts how or why. The big difference is this time we're watching the whole spectrum of disease play out in real time across millions of Twitter accounts.
The UK's relationship with alcohol is so problematic that this was never going to go well. Pubs reopening should have been one of the last steps in lockdown being lifted here.
And yet, that's exactly why it was never going to be.
I think also the fact the owner of the Weatherspoons, probably the largest chain of pubs in the UK, is an ardent Brexiteer and supporter of Boris and the Vote Leave bunch doesn't help either.
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SurfpossumA nonentitytrying to preserve the anonymity he so richly deserves.Registered Userregular
A lot of the discussion around these descriptions just makes me think people are starting to see what the incredible variability inherent in biological systems means in real terms for people. This isn't unique to COVID. You can infect three people with the same bacteria. One may finish their course of oral antibiotics as an outpatient. One may crash into the ICU, nearly die, but turn around and be back at work in a week. And one may have multiple end-organ injuries with debilitating consequences for the rest of their life. It's why you can have chicken pox parties where most kids do just fine, but some children get varicella encephalitis leading to permanent brain damage.
Bodies are weird, and we're really bad at predicting who reacts how or why. The big difference is this time we're watching the whole spectrum of disease play out in real time across millions of Twitter accounts.
Some people will start to recognize the incredible variety inherent in biological systems.
Others will see evidence that Something Is Fishy because "they" can't get their stories straight and become more convinced that it's all a hoax.
No, I haven't had the mental energy to talk to my parents about whether they're wearing masks, why do you ask.
TetraNitroCubaneThe DjinneratorAt the bottom of a bottleRegistered Userregular
edited July 2020
The reason I bring these stories up isn't to extrapolate them as being certainties or definitive, definite consequences that are 100% going to happen to everyone infected.
It's to illustrate that, yes, even after you clear the virus there's a risk that you're going to be suffering a long time afterward.
It's to illustrate that, no, death numbers are NOT the only numbers that matter.
It's to point out that, no, "just survive it" and "just live with it" are foolish and dangerous perspectives.
Hypothetically speaking, if we accept that ~3% of infected people die, how many people develop long term symptoms? How many people is that, that now can't even go to the grocery store without needing assistance? Who are effectively unable to work? That need more from the medical system than previously? That aren't actually living life anymore, but miserable and tortured? Particularly with the US strategy of "let it burn through the population"? We have 132,000 dead in the US currently. What if we have that many who effectively have no quality of life anymore, and we're not noticing or counting them?
It's something to consider, and I don't think many people are. We don't have those numbers, of course - but we shouldn't act as if those numbers are zero.
Death counts aren't the only thing that matters here.
TetraNitroCubane on
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Monkey Ball WarriorA collection of mediocre hatsSeattle, WARegistered Userregular
edited July 2020
So a grandparent of mine has passed due to unrelated long term health issues. The family lives almost entirely in Georgia and is holding a funeral next weekend. Which means I need to get on an airplane. And go to one of the hardest hit states, and thus basically a global hotspot for the virus. I'm ... very much not looking forward to it.
I need to get better face masks. The first set I bought had elastic loops and was so tight it constantly threatened to leap off my face. The current set I'm using are tie-on, which work great for me, even though they take longer to put on and take off. But they don't have any kind of wire in the nose, so if I'm wearing them I can't see well due to fog on my glasses. This is fine for a few moments to buy coffee or to run through a grocery store on a preplanned route. But I'm not stumbling through Hartsfield Intergalactic in foggy glasses.
Obviously when I come back I'm spending two weeks in self-quarantine-except-groceries. Which basically my life now, minus occasional mochas. But still.
Aaaaaaaah
Monkey Ball Warrior on
"I resent the entire notion of a body as an ante and then raise you a generalized dissatisfaction with physicality itself" -- Tycho
Isn't there a recent tweet thread that said looking at the cases/deaths ratio and drawing a conclusion off that was actually entirely falling into a statistics trap? Like, you're looking at the national numbers when you have to examine local instances because of where and how it's spread.
That proposal straight up called these other excuses (now it's hitting young people, we treat it better, etc) as bogus and said you'll start seeing the expected deaths skyrocket soon.
Yes, it's called the Simpsons Paradox and is pretty interesting in how it works. Basically comes from poorly combined data sets.
Iirc from NYC / early hotspots, the timeline is typically 5-7 days from infection to symptoms and - in cases that progress to death hospitalization 14-21 days after infection and death after 21 days. Sometimes faster, sometimes slower.
So deaths should lag new cases by around two weeks, possibly with a few days extra based on wider (but still inadequate) testing.
Testing is still inadequate, but it definitely is not meaningless. There is a lot of unsupported confidence here and people need to be careful sharing their opinions or interpretation without qualifiers. There are real statisticians and epidemiologists who definitely don't consider data collected so far to be worthless. Cite the ones who are saying so or qualify your opinion.
Infection rates are so obviously meaningless. We don't have enough tests, people are self-selecting, obvious hospital cases are just marked 'presumed' and no test is wasted, testing isn't required or even performed for close family and friends of positive cases...
Testing data is literally garbage. Why would anyone pay any attention to it? Just the simple issues of self-selection/deselection and insufficient capacity should tell you it's worthless.
The reason I bring these stories up isn't to extrapolate them as being certainties or definitive, definite consequences that are 100% going to happen to everyone infected.
It's to illustrate that, yes, even after you clear the virus there's a risk that you're going to be suffering a long time afterward.
It's to illustrate that, no, death numbers are NOT the only numbers that matter.
It's to point out that, no, "just survive it" and "just live with it" are foolish and dangerous perspectives.
Hypothetically speaking, if we accept that ~3% of infected people die, how many people develop long term symptoms? How many people is that, that now can't even go to the grocery store without needing assistance? Who are effectively unable to work? That need more from the medical system than previously? That aren't actually living life anymore, but miserable and tortured? Particularly with the US strategy of "let it burn through the population"? We have 132,000 dead in the US currently. What if we have that many who effectively have no quality of life anymore, and we're not noticing or counting them?
It's something to consider, and I don't think many people are. We don't have those numbers, of course - but we shouldn't act as if those numbers are zero.
Death counts aren't the only thing that matters here.
You're dead right but deaths are the only things we can reasonably use as an estimate of how bad it is, because the bodies are a lot harder (though not impossible as we've seen multiple times) to hide.
idk about everyone, but when I say that the death rate is all that matters, I'm talking about it being the only remaining reliable metric we can use to judge severity.
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OrcaAlso known as EspressosaurusWrexRegistered Userregular
Isn't there a recent tweet thread that said looking at the cases/deaths ratio and drawing a conclusion off that was actually entirely falling into a statistics trap? Like, you're looking at the national numbers when you have to examine local instances because of where and how it's spread.
That proposal straight up called these other excuses (now it's hitting young people, we treat it better, etc) as bogus and said you'll start seeing the expected deaths skyrocket soon.
Yes, it's called the Simpsons Paradox and is pretty interesting in how it works. Basically comes from poorly combined data sets.
Iirc from NYC / early hotspots, the timeline is typically 5-7 days from infection to symptoms and - in cases that progress to death hospitalization 14-21 days after infection and death after 21 days. Sometimes faster, sometimes slower.
So deaths should lag new cases by around two weeks, possibly with a few days extra based on wider (but still inadequate) testing.
Testing is still inadequate, but it definitely is not meaningless. There is a lot of unsupported confidence here and people need to be careful sharing their opinions or interpretation without qualifiers. There are real statisticians and epidemiologists who definitely don't consider data collected so far to be worthless. Cite the ones who are saying so or qualify your opinion.
Infection rates are so obviously meaningless. We don't have enough tests, people are self-selecting, obvious hospital cases are just marked 'presumed' and no test is wasted, testing isn't required or even performed for close family and friends of positive cases...
Testing data is literally garbage. Why would anyone pay any attention to it? Just the simple issues of self-selection/deselection and insufficient capacity should tell you it's worthless.
Infection rates give you a floor for the number of infected. Multiply by your personal de-rating factor (2-10x probably?) and the test positivity rate. If test positivity is low, that means community spread isn't too bad. When you see it climb to 10% or above, you need to increase your de-rating factor a LOT (possibly more than 10x) because that means tests aren't keeping up with infections.
I posit that 55K infected in the US reported yesterday is meaningful, especially when compared to e.g. Japan's 131 reported infected.
So a grandparent of mine has passed due to unrelated long term health issues. The family lives almost entirely in Georgia and is holding a funeral next weekend. Which means I need to get on an airplane. And go to one of the hardest hit states, and thus basically a global hotspot for the virus. I'm ... very much not looking forward to it.
I need to get better face masks. The first set I bought had elastic loops and was so tight it constantly threatened to leap off my face. The current set I'm using are tie-on, which work great for me, even though they take longer to put on and take off. But they don't have any kind of wire in the nose, so if I'm wearing them I can't see well due to fog on my glasses. This is fine for a few moments to buy coffee or to run through a grocery store on a preplanned route. But I'm not stumbling through Hartsfield Intergalactic in foggy glasses.
Obviously when I come back I'm spending two weeks in self-quarantine-except-groceries. Which basically my life now, minus occasional mochas. But still.
Aaaaaaaah
As hard as it is, you should seriously consider not going. This is a really common situation now, and a repeated vector for COVID. My own son @Squeakel is trying to find a ride to a testing center now because he was exposed by his gf's family, one of whom tested positive after traveling to a funeral-related family gathering.
also if anybody has any clue how a guy with no car can get to a drive-up testing facility in Austin (or find literally any other way to get a test in the city) please PM me or him or both of us. His rides have flaked for 3 days straight now and he can't go back to work until he's cleared. This shit might cost him a thousand dollars in lost wages before the test comes back.
spool32 on
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OrcaAlso known as EspressosaurusWrexRegistered Userregular
His rides have flaked for 3 days straight now and he can't go back to work until he's cleared. This shit might cost him a thousand dollars in lost wages before the test comes back.
That we still have to worry about wages in the middle of a fucking pandemic is such a sign of how utterly broken our priorities are as a country.
Orca on
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Monkey Ball WarriorA collection of mediocre hatsSeattle, WARegistered Userregular
I haven't commited, bought a ticket, etc exactly because I haven't heard much about who is actually invited, the size, indoors/outdoors, mask policy etc. I'm just a grandchild, so I'm kind of shocked I'm even invited, unless it is outdoors.
I'm calling the place Monday to inquire as to exactly what is up with this funeral. I will make my decision then.
"I resent the entire notion of a body as an ante and then raise you a generalized dissatisfaction with physicality itself" -- Tycho
The reason I bring these stories up isn't to extrapolate them as being certainties or definitive, definite consequences that are 100% going to happen to everyone infected.
It's to illustrate that, yes, even after you clear the virus there's a risk that you're going to be suffering a long time afterward.
It's to illustrate that, no, death numbers are NOT the only numbers that matter.
It's to point out that, no, "just survive it" and "just live with it" are foolish and dangerous perspectives.
Hypothetically speaking, if we accept that ~3% of infected people die, how many people develop long term symptoms? How many people is that, that now can't even go to the grocery store without needing assistance? Who are effectively unable to work? That need more from the medical system than previously? That aren't actually living life anymore, but miserable and tortured? Particularly with the US strategy of "let it burn through the population"? We have 132,000 dead in the US currently. What if we have that many who effectively have no quality of life anymore, and we're not noticing or counting them?
It's something to consider, and I don't think many people are. We don't have those numbers, of course - but we shouldn't act as if those numbers are zero.
Death counts aren't the only thing that matters here.
I basically scraped this off Dynamed cause it was much better than my piecemeal research
Numbers are PMIDs
Risks for severe disease (aka hospitalization and ICU)
(32444460, 32335169, 32125452, 32118640, 32279081)
- age > 65 years
- male
- hypertension
- smoking
- long term care facility
- lung disease
- severe asthma
- severe heart condition
- obesity
- diabetes
- kidney disease
- liver disease
- immunocompromised
- coronary artery disease increase acute cardiac injury risk (32391877)
Note: a lot of this is not really special to COVID but secondary effects. All these anecdotes you guys are collecting are basically the same thing: post-infectious ICU or hospitalization related weakness, post-infectious pulmonary fibrosis and coagulopathy, etc etc. Being in the hospital beats you up, and the ICU is even worse:
In the ICU:
- You lose 0.5% of muscle mass daily (9218227)
- In the first week you lose 10% of total strength and 1% each following day (27063347)
- Every 1 day of immobilization requires 1 week of rehabilitation (anecdotal)
So people with COVID, if requiring acute hospitalization or ICU, take about a month or so in some cases (I'm not going to source this) until they can move around - that means 30 weeks or more than half a year of recuperation from muscle weakness / atrophy alone. That doesn't count residual lung damage that may take 6 months to a year to regenerate depending on the breaks. Young people notice and post about this more since they come from such a high baseline function, so yes, if you weren't really using all your muscle and lung to do parkour or whatever, you can get back to "normal" much sooner, but don't exert yourself or try new things.
Marty: The future, it's where you're going? Doc: That's right, twenty five years into the future. I've always dreamed on seeing the future, looking beyond my years, seeing the progress of mankind. I'll also be able to see who wins the next twenty-five world series.
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TetraNitroCubaneThe DjinneratorAt the bottom of a bottleRegistered Userregular
With regard to the impact of reopening, my county reopened three weeks ago today. Which you can clearly see in the case numbers, which have have more or less tripled in the past week.
I haven't commited, bought a ticket, etc exactly because I haven't heard much about who is actually invited, the size, indoors/outdoors, mask policy etc. I'm just a grandchild, so I'm kind of shocked I'm even invited, unless it is outdoors.
I'm calling the place Monday to inquire as to exactly what is up with this funeral. I will make my decision then.
If you are going and flying take the following precautions.
1)Wear a mask at all times. Preferably a high quality one.
2)Buy a full covering plastic face shield to wear with your mask. COVID can infect you via your eyes to. This plus a mask will give you greater protection.
3)Gloves aren't required but are a way of making sure your don't touch your face.
4)Limit exposure as much as possible
5)Do not stay with family if possible. Isolate as much as possible while traveling and while return.
6)No physical contact, this will be the hardest at a funeral. But it is for everyone's safety not just yours. You are more likely a vector from being on a plane.
7)When you return quarantine for 2 weeks.
I flew recently. I wore a fit tested N95 plus a facemask on top so I could reduce contamination when adjusting it. None of what I say should be taken as gospel because the evidence behind infection control is not great all round.
Delta, Southwest, and Jetblue still have a "no middle seat policy" with Delta and Southwest continuing the policy to September 30th. It's nice for physical and mental comfort but ultimately the risk difference could be minimal. Note that for people who aren't wearing fitting facemasks, the aerosol vector is mostly going out the sides of the mask, which is why if you're wearing a mask you don't turn your head and cough. When you're sitting on an airplane with people in the same row as you, there's not much you can do about it.
You will be required to remove your mask once in the terminal for a few seconds at the security checkpoint. Regardless of the mask, I recommend doffing it completely rather than pulling it to another part of your face or head.
Airlines are generally not serving in flight meals, but you can still obtain a snack as (at least on delta) they come with sanitary packets. On Delta, you will also be handed a sanitary packet on boarding. I used it to clean the skin-touch surfaces of my seat area.
On arrival to my destination, I took a shower. Likely not a major factor, but easy to do.
Since my purpose was to visit family, I could not really isolate from them, but I took precautions when venturing into the community. Once you enter people into your isolation pocket, there is little point in taking isolation precautions with them unless they significantly increase their exposure risk while you are in contact.
Paladin on
Marty: The future, it's where you're going? Doc: That's right, twenty five years into the future. I've always dreamed on seeing the future, looking beyond my years, seeing the progress of mankind. I'll also be able to see who wins the next twenty-five world series.
We've reached douchebag singularity: Oregon cops openly refusing to wear masks in foul-mouthed defiance of the Governor's order
The store’s assistant manager, Travis Boss, said he told the first trooper who arrived that the trooper needed to wear a mask.
“Governor Brown has no authority to take our civil liberties. We aren’t going to wear masks,” the trooper allegedly said, according to a written statement from Boss provided to the newsroom.
The trooper proceeded to place his order, Boss said in an interview, offering a foul-mouthed retort to the governor’s mandate that masks be worn within indoor public spaces.
“He said, ‘F--- Kate Brown,’” Boss recalled.
Three other law enforcement officers entered the business moments later and also refused a request to wear masks, Boss said. Boss said he felt compelled to fulfill their drink orders because they were in uniform, even though he said he had sent other patrons away earlier for not wearing masks.
This is literally gross insubordination and an assault under color of authority, and everyone should be fired promptly.
At this point, with the massive resurgence that seems to indicate that this whole crisis is going to drag out for many more months and have residual effects for years, I would not be surprised to see a major cultural shift away from the idea of indoor restaurants and gathering spaces altogether.
It seems more and more like the answer to the question "when can things go back to normal?" is "never".
At this point, with the massive resurgence that seems to indicate that this whole crisis is going to drag out for many more months and have residual effects for years, I would not be surprised to see a major cultural shift away from the idea of indoor restaurants and gathering spaces altogether.
It seems more and more like the answer to the question "when can things go back to normal?" is "never".
The crisis was always going to be a year plus long. If you listened to any public health or epidemiologist or Dr. Fauchi we have all been saying that. The only way it will return to "normal" is when a safe mass produced vaccine is available to the general public. Even then it will have long term effects much like SARS did and such.
At this point, with the massive resurgence that seems to indicate that this whole crisis is going to drag out for many more months and have residual effects for years, I would not be surprised to see a major cultural shift away from the idea of indoor restaurants and gathering spaces altogether.
It seems more and more like the answer to the question "when can things go back to normal?" is "never".
The crisis was always going to be a year plus long. If you listened to any public health or epidemiologist or Dr. Fauchi we have all been saying that. The only way it will return to "normal" is when a safe mass produced vaccine is available to the general public. Even then it will have long term effects much like SARS did and such.
Right, but even with the vaccine we have to face the fact that this could easily happen again, and we have no reason to believe it will happen less in the future unless we fundamentally change aspects of our behavior and lifestyle to account for it.
Even after the virus is "dealt with" in any definitive way, it both will and should drive a huge change in our day-to-day behavior.
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ShadowfireVermont, in the middle of nowhereRegistered Userregular
We've reached douchebag singularity: Oregon cops openly refusing to wear masks in foul-mouthed defiance of the Governor's order
The store’s assistant manager, Travis Boss, said he told the first trooper who arrived that the trooper needed to wear a mask.
“Governor Brown has no authority to take our civil liberties. We aren’t going to wear masks,” the trooper allegedly said, according to a written statement from Boss provided to the newsroom.
The trooper proceeded to place his order, Boss said in an interview, offering a foul-mouthed retort to the governor’s mandate that masks be worn within indoor public spaces.
“He said, ‘F--- Kate Brown,’” Boss recalled.
Three other law enforcement officers entered the business moments later and also refused a request to wear masks, Boss said. Boss said he felt compelled to fulfill their drink orders because they were in uniform, even though he said he had sent other patrons away earlier for not wearing masks.
This is literally gross insubordination and an assault under color of authority, and everyone should be fired promptly.
I'm sure the owner didn't feel comfortable doing so but as a large white guy I'd be ok telling that officer to get the fuck out of my shop.
We've reached douchebag singularity: Oregon cops openly refusing to wear masks in foul-mouthed defiance of the Governor's order
The store’s assistant manager, Travis Boss, said he told the first trooper who arrived that the trooper needed to wear a mask.
“Governor Brown has no authority to take our civil liberties. We aren’t going to wear masks,” the trooper allegedly said, according to a written statement from Boss provided to the newsroom.
The trooper proceeded to place his order, Boss said in an interview, offering a foul-mouthed retort to the governor’s mandate that masks be worn within indoor public spaces.
“He said, ‘F--- Kate Brown,’” Boss recalled.
Three other law enforcement officers entered the business moments later and also refused a request to wear masks, Boss said. Boss said he felt compelled to fulfill their drink orders because they were in uniform, even though he said he had sent other patrons away earlier for not wearing masks.
This is literally gross insubordination and an assault under color of authority, and everyone should be fired promptly.
I'm sure the owner didn't feel comfortable doing so but as a large white guy I'd be ok telling that officer to get the fuck out of my shop.
And spend the next couple decades being "randomly" selected for traffic stops and health code checks.
That's the problem. The corruption and abuse of power doesn’t always manifest itself in capital crimes. There's a fuckload of petty harrassment that can harm, if not destroy, people's lives and businesses.
Read further - later on that one officer metastasizes into four, it becomes a clear case of intimidation:
Boss said the trooper also noted that police would not be enforcing violations and said something like: “I’m not going to wear a mask and none of us are,” in anticipation of more troopers arriving.
That left Boss in a weird situation.
“He’s a state trooper, he’s in uniform,” Boss said. “He’s more or less saying, ‘This is how it’s going to be, and this is what I want.’”
Pressing the issue at that point would just be putting a target on the backs of everyone associated with that shop.
Even better, later on a lieutenant subtly tells him in cop-speak to shut the fuck up and not go to the press:
All the same, Robert Morgan said the lieutenant told them they could share the information with whomever they wanted but “but they would prefer to keep it as an internal matter.”
At this point, with the massive resurgence that seems to indicate that this whole crisis is going to drag out for many more months and have residual effects for years, I would not be surprised to see a major cultural shift away from the idea of indoor restaurants and gathering spaces altogether.
It seems more and more like the answer to the question "when can things go back to normal?" is "never".
The crisis was always going to be a year plus long. If you listened to any public health or epidemiologist or Dr. Fauchi we have all been saying that. The only way it will return to "normal" is when a safe mass produced vaccine is available to the general public. Even then it will have long term effects much like SARS did and such.
Right, but even with the vaccine we have to face the fact that this could easily happen again, and we have no reason to believe it will happen less in the future unless we fundamentally change aspects of our behavior and lifestyle to account for it.
Even after the virus is "dealt with" in any definitive way, it both will and should drive a huge change in our day-to-day behavior.
Oh absolutely.
We'll have various bursts of "this group of people who look different than me have plague X" scares
We'll see an increase in automation and seatless dining, which will become more of a luxury
Young people who are coming into their own right now will be less inclined to be used to gathering, which can have long-term effects on social behavior: bars, game nights, etc., will all have this extra risk
Service environments will put that much more pressure on their staff to make up for lost income
The wealthy will insist that this all means they should pay even less taxes because of all their lost wealth, and also reduced worker protections to help make up for it
Automation will become that much more favored, and will probably get government grants because it can make things safer for consumption
Regulations will be cut to make up for shortfalls and "encourage growth"
White flight will accelerate as people try to escape to more open areas
The massive recent explosion of conventions will recede, altering enthusiast culture
Sports will get subsidies
The reason I bring these stories up isn't to extrapolate them as being certainties or definitive, definite consequences that are 100% going to happen to everyone infected.
It's to illustrate that, yes, even after you clear the virus there's a risk that you're going to be suffering a long time afterward.
It's to illustrate that, no, death numbers are NOT the only numbers that matter.
It's to point out that, no, "just survive it" and "just live with it" are foolish and dangerous perspectives.
Hypothetically speaking, if we accept that ~3% of infected people die, how many people develop long term symptoms? How many people is that, that now can't even go to the grocery store without needing assistance? Who are effectively unable to work? That need more from the medical system than previously? That aren't actually living life anymore, but miserable and tortured? Particularly with the US strategy of "let it burn through the population"? We have 132,000 dead in the US currently. What if we have that many who effectively have no quality of life anymore, and we're not noticing or counting them?
It's something to consider, and I don't think many people are. We don't have those numbers, of course - but we shouldn't act as if those numbers are zero.
Death counts aren't the only thing that matters here.
I basically scraped this off Dynamed cause it was much better than my piecemeal research
Numbers are PMIDs
Risks for severe disease (aka hospitalization and ICU)
(32444460, 32335169, 32125452, 32118640, 32279081)
- age > 65 years
- male
- hypertension
- smoking
- long term care facility
- lung disease
- severe asthma
- severe heart condition
- obesity
- diabetes
- kidney disease
- liver disease
- immunocompromised
- coronary artery disease increase acute cardiac injury risk (32391877)
Note: a lot of this is not really special to COVID but secondary effects. All these anecdotes you guys are collecting are basically the same thing: post-infectious ICU or hospitalization related weakness, post-infectious pulmonary fibrosis and coagulopathy, etc etc. Being in the hospital beats you up, and the ICU is even worse:
In the ICU:
- You lose 0.5% of muscle mass daily (9218227)
- In the first week you lose 10% of total strength and 1% each following day (27063347)
- Every 1 day of immobilization requires 1 week of rehabilitation (anecdotal)
So people with COVID, if requiring acute hospitalization or ICU, take about a month or so in some cases (I'm not going to source this) until they can move around - that means 30 weeks or more than half a year of recuperation from muscle weakness / atrophy alone. That doesn't count residual lung damage that may take 6 months to a year to regenerate depending on the breaks. Young people notice and post about this more since they come from such a high baseline function, so yes, if you weren't really using all your muscle and lung to do parkour or whatever, you can get back to "normal" much sooner, but don't exert yourself or try new things.
I have had the displeasure of having a close relative in the ICU on and off the last 2 years and every time it is a lengthy recovery even for a short stay of 3 days. I saw ambulatory injured in the hospital ward and even the ICU walking around, presumably on doctors orders to maintain muscle mass and speed recovery. She had to go in again for non covid reasons, fortunately during one of the dips in hospitalizations, and they had her in and out into a skilled nursing facility in 4 days instead of the hospital.
In the best case scenario, while there might be some level of functioning for those who have the 2 to 4 week hospitalization, it will not be enough to be a productive member of society for a long time.
He's a shy overambitious dog-catcher on the wrong side of the law. She's an orphaned psychic mercenary with the power to bend men's minds. They fight crime!
At this point, with the massive resurgence that seems to indicate that this whole crisis is going to drag out for many more months and have residual effects for years, I would not be surprised to see a major cultural shift away from the idea of indoor restaurants and gathering spaces altogether.
It seems more and more like the answer to the question "when can things go back to normal?" is "never".
The crisis was always going to be a year plus long. If you listened to any public health or epidemiologist or Dr. Fauchi we have all been saying that. The only way it will return to "normal" is when a safe mass produced vaccine is available to the general public. Even then it will have long term effects much like SARS did and such.
Right, but even with the vaccine we have to face the fact that this could easily happen again, and we have no reason to believe it will happen less in the future unless we fundamentally change aspects of our behavior and lifestyle to account for it.
Even after the virus is "dealt with" in any definitive way, it both will and should drive a huge change in our day-to-day behavior.
Oh absolutely.
We'll have various bursts of "this group of people who look different than me have plague X" scares
We'll see an increase in automation and seatless dining, which will become more of a luxury
Young people who are coming into their own right now will be less inclined to be used to gathering, which can have long-term effects on social behavior: bars, game nights, etc., will all have this extra risk
Service environments will put that much more pressure on their staff to make up for lost income
The wealthy will insist that this all means they should pay even less taxes because of all their lost wealth, and also reduced worker protections to help make up for it
Automation will become that much more favored, and will probably get government grants because it can make things safer for consumption
Regulations will be cut to make up for shortfalls and "encourage growth"
White flight will accelerate as people try to escape to more open areas
The massive recent explosion of conventions will recede, altering enthusiast culture
Sports will get subsidies
Etc etc etc.
How much did Asia change after SARS? Genuine question.
I read that the higher acceptance of masks was one thing for example.
Posts
everyone was throwing house parties and setting off illegal fireworks in the streets and in the hills.
as soon as the sun set they just kept popping off from random quarters.
(someone behind our apartment was setting them off, and we did get a great show, tbh.)
they were setting off fireworks during fire season without precautions, less than a week after a major fire burned thousands of acres.
nobody is wearing masks, nobody is distancing, everyone had a get-together for the holiday.
they do not understand cause and effect, they do not understand caution, we're so fucked.
The UK's relationship with alcohol is so problematic that this was never going to go well. Pubs reopening should have been one of the last steps in lockdown being lifted here.
Yes, it's called the Simpsons Paradox and is pretty interesting in how it works. Basically comes from poorly combined data sets.
Iirc from NYC / early hotspots, the timeline is typically 5-7 days from infection to symptoms and - in cases that progress to death hospitalization 14-21 days after infection and death after 21 days. Sometimes faster, sometimes slower.
So deaths should lag new cases by around two weeks, possibly with a few days extra based on wider (but still inadequate) testing.
Testing is still inadequate, but it definitely is not meaningless. There is a lot of unsupported confidence here and people need to be careful sharing their opinions or interpretation without qualifiers. There are real statisticians and epidemiologists who definitely don't consider data collected so far to be worthless. Cite the ones who are saying so or qualify your opinion.
Indeed. Hopefully a lot of places have another 8 weeks of lockdown left in them.
Our real mistake here was that if we had kept up our stricter (which was already not strict) level of lockdown for like 3 or 4 more weeks, wed have achieved a big fall in cases and wed have got a good balance between tests, cases and population. Now we're back at like, square 3 (not quite 1) with a need for another 8-10 weeks in proper lockdown (maybe less with more contact tracing and testing available now, and better understanding of masking) and i dont know if well get anything like that for like, 3 more weeks, atwhich point we'll need an even longer lockdown....
For the record, those deaths were likely not due to any kind of shady shit.
Back when things were really fucking bad we had usually a couple of DoAs every morning and only a fraction of them had been tested and confirmed for Covid but almost all of them had symptoms the night before according to family members.
I do wonder if they're counting people who were diabetics who suddenly were going into cardiac arrest after contracting covid - we had a few of those too.
Come Overwatch with meeeee
Extreme fatigue and weakness seem to persist months after 'recovery', even for people who don't wind up in the hospital.
There's a real chance that some people who even get mild cases will be disabled for life. The 'recovery' process appears strange and non-linear, with good days and awful days happening even months after clearing the virus.
Timeline of self-reported symptoms from this individual under the spoiler - Warning that is gets very long.
How many additional deaths are estimated due to hospitals closing to other, treatable illnesses?
And yet, that's exactly why it was never going to be.
All of that said, of course I agree with the message that even young people should be very careful and should not take it lightly. I mean, the most important thing is to be socially responsible and not spread it to more-vulnerable people, and yeah, even young people can have serious cases. But even if you assume you'll be okay, and even if you're enough of a selfish goose not to care if you get someone killed, who the hell wants to be laid up with something along the lines of the flu for a couple of weeks?? I've done that--it sucks, and I'm not eager to relive it.
It wouldn’t be that unusual for a virus to trigger a persistent autoimmune response, especially in the first few months where the virus proteins probably haven’t been fully cleared.
But even going to the ATM to get cash for tips (because grocery delivery services insist on treating their employees like dogshit) has become an anxiety-inducing experience
Bodies are weird, and we're really bad at predicting who reacts how or why. The big difference is this time we're watching the whole spectrum of disease play out in real time across millions of Twitter accounts.
I think also the fact the owner of the Weatherspoons, probably the largest chain of pubs in the UK, is an ardent Brexiteer and supporter of Boris and the Vote Leave bunch doesn't help either.
Others will see evidence that Something Is Fishy because "they" can't get their stories straight and become more convinced that it's all a hoax.
No, I haven't had the mental energy to talk to my parents about whether they're wearing masks, why do you ask.
It's to illustrate that, yes, even after you clear the virus there's a risk that you're going to be suffering a long time afterward.
It's to illustrate that, no, death numbers are NOT the only numbers that matter.
It's to point out that, no, "just survive it" and "just live with it" are foolish and dangerous perspectives.
Hypothetically speaking, if we accept that ~3% of infected people die, how many people develop long term symptoms? How many people is that, that now can't even go to the grocery store without needing assistance? Who are effectively unable to work? That need more from the medical system than previously? That aren't actually living life anymore, but miserable and tortured? Particularly with the US strategy of "let it burn through the population"? We have 132,000 dead in the US currently. What if we have that many who effectively have no quality of life anymore, and we're not noticing or counting them?
It's something to consider, and I don't think many people are. We don't have those numbers, of course - but we shouldn't act as if those numbers are zero.
Death counts aren't the only thing that matters here.
I need to get better face masks. The first set I bought had elastic loops and was so tight it constantly threatened to leap off my face. The current set I'm using are tie-on, which work great for me, even though they take longer to put on and take off. But they don't have any kind of wire in the nose, so if I'm wearing them I can't see well due to fog on my glasses. This is fine for a few moments to buy coffee or to run through a grocery store on a preplanned route. But I'm not stumbling through Hartsfield Intergalactic in foggy glasses.
Obviously when I come back I'm spending two weeks in self-quarantine-except-groceries. Which basically my life now, minus occasional mochas. But still.
Aaaaaaaah
Infection rates are so obviously meaningless. We don't have enough tests, people are self-selecting, obvious hospital cases are just marked 'presumed' and no test is wasted, testing isn't required or even performed for close family and friends of positive cases...
Testing data is literally garbage. Why would anyone pay any attention to it? Just the simple issues of self-selection/deselection and insufficient capacity should tell you it's worthless.
You're dead right but deaths are the only things we can reasonably use as an estimate of how bad it is, because the bodies are a lot harder (though not impossible as we've seen multiple times) to hide.
idk about everyone, but when I say that the death rate is all that matters, I'm talking about it being the only remaining reliable metric we can use to judge severity.
Infection rates give you a floor for the number of infected. Multiply by your personal de-rating factor (2-10x probably?) and the test positivity rate. If test positivity is low, that means community spread isn't too bad. When you see it climb to 10% or above, you need to increase your de-rating factor a LOT (possibly more than 10x) because that means tests aren't keeping up with infections.
I posit that 55K infected in the US reported yesterday is meaningful, especially when compared to e.g. Japan's 131 reported infected.
As hard as it is, you should seriously consider not going. This is a really common situation now, and a repeated vector for COVID. My own son @Squeakel is trying to find a ride to a testing center now because he was exposed by his gf's family, one of whom tested positive after traveling to a funeral-related family gathering.
also if anybody has any clue how a guy with no car can get to a drive-up testing facility in Austin (or find literally any other way to get a test in the city) please PM me or him or both of us. His rides have flaked for 3 days straight now and he can't go back to work until he's cleared. This shit might cost him a thousand dollars in lost wages before the test comes back.
That we still have to worry about wages in the middle of a fucking pandemic is such a sign of how utterly broken our priorities are as a country.
I'm calling the place Monday to inquire as to exactly what is up with this funeral. I will make my decision then.
I basically scraped this off Dynamed cause it was much better than my piecemeal research
Numbers are PMIDs
In patients hospitalized for COVID-19:
(32031570, 31986264, 32007143, 32473235)
Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome: 17% - 29%
Venous Thromboembolism: 20% overall, 3% wards, 47% ICU (32369666)
Pulmonary Embolism: 6.6% (32369666), 2.5% wards, 4.2% ICU (32353746)
Arrhythmia: 16.7%
Shock: 4% - 8.7%
Acute Cardiac Injury: 7.2% - 12%.
Acute Kidney Injury: 3.6%
Secondary Infection: 7% - 10%
Delirium: 65% in ICU (32437679)
Other Complications:
(32447630, 32529575, 32219357, 32227076, 32277408, 32197060, 32265202)
All case reports, no incidence yet
- Ischemic Stroke
- Encephalitis / meningitis, Acute Disseminated Encephalomyelitis
- Rhabdomyolysis
- Guillain Barre Syndrome
- Unspecified weakness / ataxia
- Myocarditis / Pericarditis / Cardiac Tamponade
- Acute Conjunctivitis
Risks for severe disease (aka hospitalization and ICU)
(32444460, 32335169, 32125452, 32118640, 32279081)
- age > 65 years
- male
- hypertension
- smoking
- long term care facility
- lung disease
- severe asthma
- severe heart condition
- obesity
- diabetes
- kidney disease
- liver disease
- immunocompromised
- coronary artery disease increase acute cardiac injury risk (32391877)
Note: a lot of this is not really special to COVID but secondary effects. All these anecdotes you guys are collecting are basically the same thing: post-infectious ICU or hospitalization related weakness, post-infectious pulmonary fibrosis and coagulopathy, etc etc. Being in the hospital beats you up, and the ICU is even worse:
In the ICU:
- You lose 0.5% of muscle mass daily (9218227)
- In the first week you lose 10% of total strength and 1% each following day (27063347)
- Every 1 day of immobilization requires 1 week of rehabilitation (anecdotal)
So people with COVID, if requiring acute hospitalization or ICU, take about a month or so in some cases (I'm not going to source this) until they can move around - that means 30 weeks or more than half a year of recuperation from muscle weakness / atrophy alone. That doesn't count residual lung damage that may take 6 months to a year to regenerate depending on the breaks. Young people notice and post about this more since they come from such a high baseline function, so yes, if you weren't really using all your muscle and lung to do parkour or whatever, you can get back to "normal" much sooner, but don't exert yourself or try new things.
Doc: That's right, twenty five years into the future. I've always dreamed on seeing the future, looking beyond my years, seeing the progress of mankind. I'll also be able to see who wins the next twenty-five world series.
If you are going and flying take the following precautions.
1)Wear a mask at all times. Preferably a high quality one.
2)Buy a full covering plastic face shield to wear with your mask. COVID can infect you via your eyes to. This plus a mask will give you greater protection.
3)Gloves aren't required but are a way of making sure your don't touch your face.
4)Limit exposure as much as possible
5)Do not stay with family if possible. Isolate as much as possible while traveling and while return.
6)No physical contact, this will be the hardest at a funeral. But it is for everyone's safety not just yours. You are more likely a vector from being on a plane.
7)When you return quarantine for 2 weeks.
Delta, Southwest, and Jetblue still have a "no middle seat policy" with Delta and Southwest continuing the policy to September 30th. It's nice for physical and mental comfort but ultimately the risk difference could be minimal. Note that for people who aren't wearing fitting facemasks, the aerosol vector is mostly going out the sides of the mask, which is why if you're wearing a mask you don't turn your head and cough. When you're sitting on an airplane with people in the same row as you, there's not much you can do about it.
You will be required to remove your mask once in the terminal for a few seconds at the security checkpoint. Regardless of the mask, I recommend doffing it completely rather than pulling it to another part of your face or head.
Airlines are generally not serving in flight meals, but you can still obtain a snack as (at least on delta) they come with sanitary packets. On Delta, you will also be handed a sanitary packet on boarding. I used it to clean the skin-touch surfaces of my seat area.
On arrival to my destination, I took a shower. Likely not a major factor, but easy to do.
Since my purpose was to visit family, I could not really isolate from them, but I took precautions when venturing into the community. Once you enter people into your isolation pocket, there is little point in taking isolation precautions with them unless they significantly increase their exposure risk while you are in contact.
Doc: That's right, twenty five years into the future. I've always dreamed on seeing the future, looking beyond my years, seeing the progress of mankind. I'll also be able to see who wins the next twenty-five world series.
We've reached douchebag singularity: Oregon cops openly refusing to wear masks in foul-mouthed defiance of the Governor's order
This is literally gross insubordination and an assault under color of authority, and everyone should be fired promptly.
It seems more and more like the answer to the question "when can things go back to normal?" is "never".
The crisis was always going to be a year plus long. If you listened to any public health or epidemiologist or Dr. Fauchi we have all been saying that. The only way it will return to "normal" is when a safe mass produced vaccine is available to the general public. Even then it will have long term effects much like SARS did and such.
Right, but even with the vaccine we have to face the fact that this could easily happen again, and we have no reason to believe it will happen less in the future unless we fundamentally change aspects of our behavior and lifestyle to account for it.
Even after the virus is "dealt with" in any definitive way, it both will and should drive a huge change in our day-to-day behavior.
I'm sure the owner didn't feel comfortable doing so but as a large white guy I'd be ok telling that officer to get the fuck out of my shop.
And spend the next couple decades being "randomly" selected for traffic stops and health code checks.
That's the problem. The corruption and abuse of power doesn’t always manifest itself in capital crimes. There's a fuckload of petty harrassment that can harm, if not destroy, people's lives and businesses.
Pressing the issue at that point would just be putting a target on the backs of everyone associated with that shop.
Even better, later on a lieutenant subtly tells him in cop-speak to shut the fuck up and not go to the press:
Oh absolutely.
We'll have various bursts of "this group of people who look different than me have plague X" scares
We'll see an increase in automation and seatless dining, which will become more of a luxury
Young people who are coming into their own right now will be less inclined to be used to gathering, which can have long-term effects on social behavior: bars, game nights, etc., will all have this extra risk
Service environments will put that much more pressure on their staff to make up for lost income
The wealthy will insist that this all means they should pay even less taxes because of all their lost wealth, and also reduced worker protections to help make up for it
Automation will become that much more favored, and will probably get government grants because it can make things safer for consumption
Regulations will be cut to make up for shortfalls and "encourage growth"
White flight will accelerate as people try to escape to more open areas
The massive recent explosion of conventions will recede, altering enthusiast culture
Sports will get subsidies
Etc etc etc.
I have had the displeasure of having a close relative in the ICU on and off the last 2 years and every time it is a lengthy recovery even for a short stay of 3 days. I saw ambulatory injured in the hospital ward and even the ICU walking around, presumably on doctors orders to maintain muscle mass and speed recovery. She had to go in again for non covid reasons, fortunately during one of the dips in hospitalizations, and they had her in and out into a skilled nursing facility in 4 days instead of the hospital.
In the best case scenario, while there might be some level of functioning for those who have the 2 to 4 week hospitalization, it will not be enough to be a productive member of society for a long time.
How much did Asia change after SARS? Genuine question.
I read that the higher acceptance of masks was one thing for example.