I occasionally hate myself, so I looked at the comments... It's amazing how many Conservatives are now greatly preoccupied with the poors. And also how many don't understand how carbon taxes work, in general, and how the federal one does.
Now, to be fair, I also don't quite get on it works, since my province is not directly affected: we setup a cap and trade market with California instead, and the federal carbon tax only applies to provinces that are not even trying. Which would also be a major surprise to the Conservatives, since they seem to believe that carbon tax is imposed on the provinces.
It doesn't even impact the majority of Canadians. Unless you are doing something that burns a shit-ton of fossil fuels, we are likely to at least break even when you do your taxes.
I don't have a great understanding of how the tax works, but the ones being most vocal don't have a fucking clue.
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ShadowenSnores in the morningLoserdomRegistered Userregular
edited March 2021
So...I am not a modern major general, nor am I an expert on matters biological or mathematical. However...
Canada's vaccine advisory committee is recommending immediately suspending the use of the AstraZeneca-Oxford COVID-19 vaccine in Canadians under 55 following reports of rare but potentially fatal blood clots in Europe that appear to be connected to the shot.
...
Quebec, Ontario, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Newfoundland and Labrador and Prince Edward Island have all suspended the use of the vaccine for anyone below the age of 55. Other provinces and territories are expected to follow.
The Paul Ehrlich Institute (which is studying incidences of the clots occurring in Europe, where most of this data is coming from) calls this phenomenon Vaccine-Induced Prothrombotic Immune Thrombocytopenia (VIPIT). They've estimated that the fatality rate of the clots is about 40%. This is pretty terrifyingly high! However, the incidence of clotting occurs at about 1 in 100000. This would indicate a fatality rate for the AZ vaccine of 0.000004%. (Also, if you've had the AZ vaccine and it's been at least 20 days you probably don't have to worry because all the incidences observed so far have been within that timeframe.)
Meanwhile, the death rate in Canada for CoViD-19 has been...2.3%.
Granted, there've been less than a million cases of the coronavirus in Canada, and there's almost 38 million people here. Let's assume that Canada completely inverts gears and vaccines everyone in the country using only the AZ vaccine. Let's also assume the rate holds. (And admittedly, the rate could very easily change as the investigation proceeds, for we are still in early days...)
"Where the true rate is, we just don't know at this point in time," said NACI Co-Chair Dr. Shelley Deeks. "But we are continuing to follow the data, as it emerges."
But if the rate does hold, approximately 380 people in Canada would get the clots, and ~150 of them would die.
Ontario is likely to get enough new covid cases that it will result in that many more deaths from covid in the next two days.
Is the NACI just real fuckin' bad at math or am I putting too much stock into the early VIPIT numbers? Is there some cutoff for acceptable rates of lethal side effects for treatments, where it's so much lower than the incidence of fatality of what it's trying to treat that VIPIT-induced death rates wouldn't have to skyrocket by almost six orders of magnitude to be considered a wash?
I'm real fucking angry about this. Canada's vaccine rollout has already been a bad joke, and now "oh if we give you this shot there's a chance you'll die!" "Is it higher than my chance of dying from covid?" "No, it's over ten thousand times lower."
Shadowen on
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HardtargetThere Are Four LightsVancouverRegistered Userregular
edited March 2021
My wife is an expert in matters biological (she's a Immunologist with a PhD in Experimental Medicine) and she is pissed the government has done this.
tldr: There has been no increase in the expected amount of blood clots in Europe you would normally see right now (in fact by chance it's actually lower than normal right now). It's insane Canada is pausing the vaccine rollout and if the issue is that it's bad for people to take it who have thrombocytopenia, than don't have those people take it.
The government has completely fucked this up and confidence in this vaccine is now ultra low. The comments of people on social media today regarding this vaccine were extremely disheartening.
Almost every decision governments across the world have been making about AZ have been based entirely around appeasing fear and anxiety and nothing at all related to what's best for the health of the people.
Canada's vaccine advisory committee is recommending immediately suspending the use of the AstraZeneca-Oxford COVID-19 vaccine in Canadians under 55 following reports of rare but potentially fatal blood clots in Europe that appear to be connected to the shot.
...
Quebec, Ontario, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Newfoundland and Labrador and Prince Edward Island have all suspended the use of the vaccine for anyone below the age of 55. Other provinces and territories are expected to follow.
The Paul Ehrlich Institute (which is studying incidences of the clots occurring in Europe, where most of this data is coming from) calls this phenomenon Vaccine-Induced Prothrombotic Immune Thrombocytopenia (VIPIT). They've estimated that the fatality rate of the clots is about 40%. This is pretty terrifyingly high! However, the incidence of clotting occurs at about 1 in 100000. This would indicate a fatality rate for the AZ vaccine of 0.000004%. (Also, if you've had the AZ vaccine and it's been at least 20 days you probably don't have to worry because all the incidences observed so far have been within that timeframe.)
Meanwhile, the death rate in Canada for CoViD-19 has been...2.3%.
Granted, there've been less than a million cases of the coronavirus in Canada, and there's almost 38 million people here. Let's assume that Canada completely inverts gears and vaccines everyone in the country using only the AZ vaccine. Let's also assume the rate holds. (And admittedly, the rate could very easily change as the investigation proceeds, for we are still in early days...)
"Where the true rate is, we just don't know at this point in time," said NACI Co-Chair Dr. Shelley Deeks. "But we are continuing to follow the data, as it emerges."
But if the rate does hold, approximately 380 people in Canada would get the clots, and ~150 of them would die.
Ontario is likely to get enough new covid cases that it will result in that many more deaths from covid in the next two days.
Is the NACI just real fuckin' bad at math or am I putting too much stock into the early VIPIT numbers? Is there some cutoff for acceptable rates of lethal side effects for treatments, where it's so much lower than the incidence of fatality of what it's trying to treat that VIPIT-induced death rates wouldn't have to skyrocket by almost six orders of magnitude to be considered a wash?
I'm real fucking angry about this. Canada's vaccine rollout has already been a bad joke, and now "oh if we give you this shot there's a chance you'll die!" "Is it higher than my chance of dying from covid?" "No, it's over ten thousand times lower."
You can't use the 2.3% figure there. It's only suspended for under-55. We know there is a very large curve in mortality. 15580 of the 22691 deaths are from the 80+ cohort
Fatality for
0-19 is 0.003%
20-29 is 0.02%
30-39 is 0.05%
40-49 is 0.13%
50-59 is 0.49%
60-69 is 2.22%
70-79 is 9.5%
80+ is 24.6%
150 will die from the vaccine. If we continue at 4000 cases/day, of which 60% are in 0-49, which have a normalized 0.05% fatality rate, that's 1.2 deaths per day, which will end up with the vaccine killing more than the virus
We won't get to sub-55 until the summer, at which point we managed to get to 300/day nation-wide which is 0.1 deaths/day and very much in favour of the vaccine killing way more. If we are just replicating last year's charts we should peak soon, hold steady and drop for may/june.
Basically it comes down to: as a member of a cohort is 0.000004% fatality anywhere near (covid fatality) * (chance you contract it) - because the entire population will get vaccinated, but not necessarily get infected
So on one hand, this is utter horseshit and I'm furious. There are fewer recorded and expected incidences of blood clots for this vaccine than there are for popular birth control pills that women take regularly without any public outcry. I've already had to convince my father in law not to worry about Europe's dumb shit about this vaccine and I'm concerned I'm going to have to talk him down again. That's IF we even are allowed to keep rolling it out.
On the other hand, though, I also know that we're experiencing stunning and frustratingly high levels of vaccine hesitancy. There are concerns about the AZ vaccine and appearing to do nothing or dismiss these concerns while also doing nothing isn't a winning play. The only way to assuage people's fears over this vaccine and others is by doing something.
But on the other other hand, just because you have to do something, it doesn't mean you have to do this. We're already dealing with difficulties getting sufficient vaccine, removing the supply of a vaccine that we have plenty of doses of and are expecting plenty more right as our third wave is starting to get bad is fucking stupid.
I'm furious about how so many levels of government in this country have fucked up the handling of this pandemic. Canada is broken, and nearly 23,000 Canadians are dead because of this dysfunction.
NACI seems to just be covering their ass at this point.
Let's approve AZ regardless if it has lower effectiveness.... Wait, for only those under 65. No , let's make it for everyone and spend weeks telling folks it's totally safe and to not shop or wait for another vaccine. Oh, let's change our mind again and make it for only those OVER 55 now.
All this based on what seems to be a total lack of data. This is straight-up going to cause more deaths than any complication and all this while we are actually receiving 1.5 million doses this week. I 100% guarantee we are going to see news stories of AZ vaccines going to waste in the next week or two because no one wants it now.
PSN: Canadian_llama
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ShivahnUnaware of her barrel shifter privilegeWestern coastal temptressRegistered User, Moderatormod
The whiplash is profoundly... bad, but Phyphor (assuming his math is correct) is right. It seems like the current policy is maybe the correct one - give astrazeneca to all the people who are at higher risk of death for coronavirus, give other vaccines to everyone younger (or, presumably, who have risks of clots otherwise). It's just unfortunate that we didn't... you know, start there, and instead have been switching back and forth so much that I've stopped paying attention because I have other shit to do than read the government livetweeting its internal debate on what to do.
(I don't know what was up with "this special priority group will get astrazeneca," though, that always was weird)
The whiplash is profoundly... bad, but Phyphor (assuming his math is correct) is right. It seems like the current policy is maybe the correct one - give astrazeneca to all the people who are at higher risk of death for coronavirus, give other vaccines to everyone younger (or, presumably, who have risks of clots otherwise). It's just unfortunate that we didn't... you know, start there, and instead have been switching back and forth so much that I've stopped paying attention because I have other shit to do than read the government livetweeting its internal debate on what to do.
(I don't know what was up with "this special priority group will get astrazeneca," though, that always was weird)
I already know 3 x people that are refusing to get their 2nd AZ shot.
Making this decision on the eve of the largest AZ vaccine shipment we have received stinks of folks trying to cover their ass. NACI is now the biggest cause of Vaccine hesitancy in the country I really hope they are proud of themselves.
I totally understand using data to support changing positions but this is the same group that also supports splitting shots over 4 months with exactly zero study data to back that up. A week ago they were literally saying to get whatever shot you can and not wait..... and now they muddy the waters more on what seems like the flimsiest of data.
PSN: Canadian_llama
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ShivahnUnaware of her barrel shifter privilegeWestern coastal temptressRegistered User, Moderatormod
Oh yeah, no, the organization is bad and I don't trust them (or any government organization, way to make me into a fkin anarchist, every government organization on earth). I just have trouble being irritated at this specific advice, which seems fine in terms of itself, distinct from the effect this constant whiplash from clownshoes organizations is having on the populace.
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HardtargetThere Are Four LightsVancouverRegistered Userregular
The whiplash is profoundly... bad, but Phyphor (assuming his math is correct) is right. It seems like the current policy is maybe the correct one - give astrazeneca to all the people who are at higher risk of death for coronavirus, give other vaccines to everyone younger (or, presumably, who have risks of clots otherwise). It's just unfortunate that we didn't... you know, start there, and instead have been switching back and forth so much that I've stopped paying attention because I have other shit to do than read the government livetweeting its internal debate on what to do.
(I don't know what was up with "this special priority group will get astrazeneca," though, that always was weird)
I already know 3 x people that are refusing to get their 2nd AZ shot.
Making this decision on the eve of the largest AZ vaccine shipment we have received stinks of folks trying to cover their ass. NACI is now the biggest cause of Vaccine hesitancy in the country I really hope they are proud of themselves.
I totally understand using data to support changing positions but this is the same group that also supports splitting shots over 4 months with exactly zero study data to back that up. A week ago they were literally saying to get whatever shot you can and not wait..... and now they muddy the waters more on what seems like the flimsiest of data.
refusing the 2nd shot is especially insane if you had no adverse reaction to the first one. this is TERRIBLE what the government had done here.
what they need to do is educate the populace about the vaccine and instead they've done the total reverse
The whiplash is profoundly... bad, but Phyphor (assuming his math is correct) is right. It seems like the current policy is maybe the correct one - give astrazeneca to all the people who are at higher risk of death for coronavirus, give other vaccines to everyone younger (or, presumably, who have risks of clots otherwise). It's just unfortunate that we didn't... you know, start there, and instead have been switching back and forth so much that I've stopped paying attention because I have other shit to do than read the government livetweeting its internal debate on what to do.
(I don't know what was up with "this special priority group will get astrazeneca," though, that always was weird)
I already know 3 x people that are refusing to get their 2nd AZ shot.
Making this decision on the eve of the largest AZ vaccine shipment we have received stinks of folks trying to cover their ass. NACI is now the biggest cause of Vaccine hesitancy in the country I really hope they are proud of themselves.
I totally understand using data to support changing positions but this is the same group that also supports splitting shots over 4 months with exactly zero study data to back that up. A week ago they were literally saying to get whatever shot you can and not wait..... and now they muddy the waters more on what seems like the flimsiest of data.
refusing the 2nd shot is especially insane if you had no adverse reaction to the first one. this is TERRIBLE what the government had done here.
what they need to do is educate the populace about the vaccine and instead they've done the total reverse
Well, if the government didn't just announce how unsafe the fucking thing is they would not be this worried.
Absolutely true, but it seems like coordination is less of an issue than amount atm. Moar production is the bottleneck breaker, I think?
Ontario seems unable to distribute the vaccines they have and that problem is going to ramp up as they are now going to be getting more doses per week by a factor of 10x. 5 x million J&J doses are 5 x million appointments to fully vaccinate 5 x, million people.
Pfizer is 10 x million doses to vaccinate 5 x million folks over 10 x million appointments.
I cannot speak to any coordination or behind the scenes difficulties, I can say that from an end user perspective its been painless?
I booked online for both my parents, across two different age categories (75+ and 70+), and took the first slots I could find. It just so happened that they got their first shots within a week of each other. When booking your first one, "the system" automatically books your second shot for you. I suppose a lot of things could happen between now and July, but so far it looks like grandparents and grandchildren could be hugging each other by the middle of summer!!
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ShivahnUnaware of her barrel shifter privilegeWestern coastal temptressRegistered User, Moderatormod
I cannot speak to any coordination or behind the scenes difficulties, I can say that from an end user perspective its been painless?
I booked online for both my parents, across two different age categories (75+ and 70+), and took the first slots I could find. It just so happened that they got their first shots within a week of each other. When booking your first one, "the system" automatically books your second shot for you. I suppose a lot of things could happen between now and July, but so far it looks like grandparents and grandchildren could be hugging each other by the middle of summer!!
This is province by province. My wife got hers a month ago and they were like "we'll call you sometime between like 45 and 90 days to schedule your (SCIENTIFICALLY ADVISED TO BE 21 DAY) follow up."
But BC seems particularly clownshoesy. At least we're not Alberta????
Absolutely true, but it seems like coordination is less of an issue than amount atm. Moar production is the bottleneck breaker, I think?
Ontario seems unable to distribute the vaccines they have and that problem is going to ramp up as they are now going to be getting more doses per week by a factor of 10x. 5 x million J&J doses are 5 x million appointments to fully vaccinate 5 x, million people.
Pfizer is 10 x million doses to vaccinate 5 x million folks over 10 x million appointments.
No? There's like a 3-4 day backlog. Ontario is one of the highest ratios of doses administered / doses delivered currently
I cannot speak to any coordination or behind the scenes difficulties, I can say that from an end user perspective its been painless?
I booked online for both my parents, across two different age categories (75+ and 70+), and took the first slots I could find. It just so happened that they got their first shots within a week of each other. When booking your first one, "the system" automatically books your second shot for you. I suppose a lot of things could happen between now and July, but so far it looks like grandparents and grandchildren could be hugging each other by the middle of summer!!
This is province by province. My wife got hers a month ago and they were like "we'll call you sometime between like 45 and 90 days to schedule your (SCIENTIFICALLY ADVISED TO BE 21 DAY) follow up."
But BC seems particularly clownshoesy. At least we're not Alberta????
Don't get me wrong AB has a lot of clowns in charge but I will stack up against our vaccination campaign against any provinces so far.
Yeah, I get that it won’t ever be fast enough, but we were down to a few days worth of doses to go. We just jumped up to 700k to spare on the tracker in the last few hours, which presumably represents a big delivery occurring recently (or not so recently and it just got put in the system).
Either way, the province claims they can handle way more doses per week than we have, and we don’t seem to be receiving them fast enough to make that into a transparent lie just yet.
First they came for the Muslims, and we said NOT TODAY, MOTHERFUCKER!
One week ago we were doing well. Cases were consistently going down since January. In Québec City we were down to 50 cases per day. Businesses were open, restaurants, cinemas, schools, malls, museums... life was going back to normal.
One gym, the Mega Fitness Gym, decided to ignore public health guidelines.
They infected 68 (known) people, who went on to infect more and cause 8 separate outbreaks around town, including in a school. Overnight we went up to 250 new cases a day. And starting tomorrow we're back to maximum confinement, everything except essential businesses shut down, schools closed, strict curfew in effect.
One irresponsible fucking gym literally shut down our entire national capital at least for the next two weeks.
I hope they keep those motherfucking gyms closed until we're at 100% vaccination and the virus is eradicated polio-style.
It's deeply stupid that gyms are opening up. On the same level of stupid as indoor dining.
I mean, if you sit and sweat at your dining table for 5 minutes then swap tables with someone else who did the same on theirs, sure. But also, tell me where you're going out to eat so I can avoid it like the plague.
It's deeply stupid that gyms are opening up. On the same level of stupid as indoor dining.
I mean, if you sit and sweat at your dining table for 5 minutes then swap tables with someone else who did the same on theirs, sure. But also, tell me where you're going out to eat so I can avoid it like the plague.
It's deeply stupid that gyms are opening up. On the same level of stupid as indoor dining.
I mean, if you sit and sweat at your dining table for 5 minutes then swap tables with someone else who did the same on theirs, sure. But also, tell me where you're going out to eat so I can avoid it like the plague.
Any indoor gathering places that are not essential to life should be shut. The gym is worse than a restaurant just based on how far people would be spreading their droplets when physically exerting, but the turn over of people and mingling in restaurants makes indoor dining totally unreasonable to have open.
It's telling that things are going to shit here in BC when those two things, indoor fitness and dining were opened, and now that we're at our worst cases in a day ever, they have shut them down.
It's deeply stupid that gyms are opening up. On the same level of stupid as indoor dining.
I mean, if you sit and sweat at your dining table for 5 minutes then swap tables with someone else who did the same on theirs, sure. But also, tell me where you're going out to eat so I can avoid it like the plague.
Any indoor gathering places that are not essential to life should be shut. The gym is worse than a restaurant just based on how far people would be spreading their droplets when physically exerting, but the turn over of people and mingling in restaurants makes indoor dining totally unreasonable to have open.
It's telling that things are going to shit here in BC when those two things, indoor fitness and dining were opened, and now that we're at our worst cases in a day ever, they have shut them down.
What the plan should have been was always obvious imo:
- shut everything non-essential down to contain the spread
- try and find some way to reopen schools when and only if it's safe
- literally nothing else and anyone whinging about going to the gym or eating at fucking Montana's or whatever gets dragged into the streets by roving masked posses and beaten with sacks full of doorknobs
I forgot the best part: when it became clear people were getting infected from that gym, it was ordered to close. It refused and remained open until the cops were called to force them to close. This is the second time this gym defied public health orders to remain open during the pandemic.
It's deeply stupid that gyms are opening up. On the same level of stupid as indoor dining.
I mean, if you sit and sweat at your dining table for 5 minutes then swap tables with someone else who did the same on theirs, sure. But also, tell me where you're going out to eat so I can avoid it like the plague.
It's deeply stupid that gyms are opening up. On the same level of stupid as indoor dining.
I mean, if you sit and sweat at your dining table for 5 minutes then swap tables with someone else who did the same on theirs, sure. But also, tell me where you're going out to eat so I can avoid it like the plague.
Any indoor gathering places that are not essential to life should be shut. The gym is worse than a restaurant just based on how far people would be spreading their droplets when physically exerting, but the turn over of people and mingling in restaurants makes indoor dining totally unreasonable to have open.
It's telling that things are going to shit here in BC when those two things, indoor fitness and dining were opened, and now that we're at our worst cases in a day ever, they have shut them down.
What the plan should have been was always obvious imo:
- shut everything non-essential down to contain the spread
- try and find some way to reopen schools when and only if it's safe
- literally nothing else and anyone whinging about going to the gym or eating at fucking Montana's or whatever gets dragged into the streets by roving masked posses and beaten with sacks full of doorknobs
We can put the Vancouver guy who used his bike to smash the window of the Covid denier with a bullhorn in charge.
It's deeply stupid that gyms are opening up. On the same level of stupid as indoor dining.
I mean, if you sit and sweat at your dining table for 5 minutes then swap tables with someone else who did the same on theirs, sure. But also, tell me where you're going out to eat so I can avoid it like the plague.
Do you have magic barriers between tables?
Yes. In French, we call them "plastique".
IMO servers are the vector for indoor dining. And patios outdoors. Servers interact with so many groups so often in a day that they will eventually interact with someone who has it and doesn’t know it, then spread it.
Patios actually seem to have solid discipline in their spacing around here, but people passing the patios on the street are often forced closer than distancing requires, just due to geography. Eventually, someone on the street without a mask, or someone at a table without a mask, is going to be a flashpoint.
It's deeply stupid that gyms are opening up. On the same level of stupid as indoor dining.
I mean, if you sit and sweat at your dining table for 5 minutes then swap tables with someone else who did the same on theirs, sure. But also, tell me where you're going out to eat so I can avoid it like the plague.
Any indoor gathering places that are not essential to life should be shut. The gym is worse than a restaurant just based on how far people would be spreading their droplets when physically exerting, but the turn over of people and mingling in restaurants makes indoor dining totally unreasonable to have open.
It's telling that things are going to shit here in BC when those two things, indoor fitness and dining were opened, and now that we're at our worst cases in a day ever, they have shut them down.
What the plan should have been was always obvious imo:
- shut everything non-essential down to contain the spread
- try and find some way to reopen schools when and only if it's safe
- literally nothing else and anyone whinging about going to the gym or eating at fucking Montana's or whatever gets dragged into the streets by roving masked posses and beaten with sacks full of doorknobs
We can put the Vancouver guy who used his bike to smash the window of the Covid denier with a bullhorn in charge.
It's deeply stupid that gyms are opening up. On the same level of stupid as indoor dining.
I mean, if you sit and sweat at your dining table for 5 minutes then swap tables with someone else who did the same on theirs, sure. But also, tell me where you're going out to eat so I can avoid it like the plague.
Any indoor gathering places that are not essential to life should be shut. The gym is worse than a restaurant just based on how far people would be spreading their droplets when physically exerting, but the turn over of people and mingling in restaurants makes indoor dining totally unreasonable to have open.
It's telling that things are going to shit here in BC when those two things, indoor fitness and dining were opened, and now that we're at our worst cases in a day ever, they have shut them down.
What the plan should have been was always obvious imo:
- shut everything non-essential down to contain the spread
- try and find some way to reopen schools when and only if it's safe
- literally nothing else and anyone whinging about going to the gym or eating at fucking Montana's or whatever gets dragged into the streets by roving masked posses and beaten with sacks full of doorknobs
We can put the Vancouver guy who used his bike to smash the window of the Covid denier with a bullhorn in charge.
Watching CP24 says CTV has found out Ford is expected to announce a month long shutdown
Mock down. Again, it won't do a god damned thing. Until we do an ACTUAL PROPER shut down, this will do nothing at all. I am so damned tired...
I own an Indoor Playground and had a day job designing awards and trophies...
Sharing this from my facebook because I can't do anything else but piss and moan...
3rd wave... the completely preventable 3rd wave... Watch us do nothing EXCEPT for punish the least secure of us again.
How does vaccinating only a portion of the population protect us without a proper and total shutdown?
How does a business like mine EVER open again?
How can I find a job that will properly support my family in constant instability?
4 weeks. That's it. If we properly shut down for 4 weeks:
No travel. Including inter-city/interprovincial.
Nobody working who does not need to.
Hell, put the military in the grocery stores. Total curbside ordering only. THEY can help those who cannot order online. They can take calls from those without computers.
In the first 2 weeks, the current round of infections would burn out. 2 more weeks for the rest.
This is NOT impossible.
It is NOT impractical.
It is DIFFICULT.
I am so damned tired of people conflating those 3 terms.
If we DON'T do this right THIS TIME, what next? What happens if we rely on the vaccines and they are not as effective as reported? What happens if we develop our own variants?
And before the inevitable chime-ins:
YOU don't NEED to WORK. You NEED FOOD and a ROOF, etc.
You need a JOB to RETURN TO.
Your BUSINESS does not NEED to be OPEN, it NEEDS to be PROTECTED from this event that is completely out of YOUR CONTROL.
Please stop protesting to get us BACK TO NORMAL by sacrificing others. The only, ONLY, O N L Y way we will EVER get back to "NORMAL" is to get the virus under CONTROL.
Period.
That's it.
The vaccine WILL NOT SAVE US. We cannot possibly dose enough of us FAST ENOUGH to be effective against a fully raging virus.
We HAVE to do BOTH.
We have had dozens of calls over the past year, likely 10 in just the last 7+ days, asking when we will reopen the APC and I just do not know how to do so safely while the virus rages on.
Cleaning before & after does not prevent a infection from spreading to all inside while they play.
I WILL NOT be responsible for getting a child sick, or worse.
I may (any of you may) actually be immunocompromised.
Just before this all started I was in the hospital for 3 days due to an infection that attacked nearly everything in my midsection. I was STILL showing signs of liver damage Last March.
Please, PLEASE DO MORE than this useless government is asking. Please STOP trying to ignore the realities of all this and fighting for the SCRAPS those in power are willing to leave you with.
PLEASE DEMAND WE DO THIS RIGHT.
Thanks for reading my TED TALK.
This world needs a new philosophy. No more, "Could be worse..." I say SHOULD BE BETTER!
Like I said in the Covid thread, the lockdown is frustrating because business was just starting to pick up at my resteraunt and it's looking like we're going right back to square fucking one.
For four weeks.
Like... just shut shit down for 3 months if that's what it takes but fuck off with this stop and start bullshit.
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It doesn't even impact the majority of Canadians. Unless you are doing something that burns a shit-ton of fossil fuels, we are likely to at least break even when you do your taxes.
I don't have a great understanding of how the tax works, but the ones being most vocal don't have a fucking clue.
The NACI is recommending pausing using the AstraZeneca vaccine on patients under 55 due to the potential for developing rare blood clots, which can prove fatal. Most of the provinces have have already agreed.
The Paul Ehrlich Institute (which is studying incidences of the clots occurring in Europe, where most of this data is coming from) calls this phenomenon Vaccine-Induced Prothrombotic Immune Thrombocytopenia (VIPIT). They've estimated that the fatality rate of the clots is about 40%. This is pretty terrifyingly high! However, the incidence of clotting occurs at about 1 in 100000. This would indicate a fatality rate for the AZ vaccine of 0.000004%. (Also, if you've had the AZ vaccine and it's been at least 20 days you probably don't have to worry because all the incidences observed so far have been within that timeframe.)
Meanwhile, the death rate in Canada for CoViD-19 has been...2.3%.
Granted, there've been less than a million cases of the coronavirus in Canada, and there's almost 38 million people here. Let's assume that Canada completely inverts gears and vaccines everyone in the country using only the AZ vaccine. Let's also assume the rate holds. (And admittedly, the rate could very easily change as the investigation proceeds, for we are still in early days...)
But if the rate does hold, approximately 380 people in Canada would get the clots, and ~150 of them would die.
Ontario is likely to get enough new covid cases that it will result in that many more deaths from covid in the next two days.
Is the NACI just real fuckin' bad at math or am I putting too much stock into the early VIPIT numbers? Is there some cutoff for acceptable rates of lethal side effects for treatments, where it's so much lower than the incidence of fatality of what it's trying to treat that VIPIT-induced death rates wouldn't have to skyrocket by almost six orders of magnitude to be considered a wash?
I'm real fucking angry about this. Canada's vaccine rollout has already been a bad joke, and now "oh if we give you this shot there's a chance you'll die!" "Is it higher than my chance of dying from covid?" "No, it's over ten thousand times lower."
tldr: There has been no increase in the expected amount of blood clots in Europe you would normally see right now (in fact by chance it's actually lower than normal right now). It's insane Canada is pausing the vaccine rollout and if the issue is that it's bad for people to take it who have thrombocytopenia, than don't have those people take it.
The government has completely fucked this up and confidence in this vaccine is now ultra low. The comments of people on social media today regarding this vaccine were extremely disheartening.
You think I'd be insane saying this but patent protection was voted to be more important then global health a bit ago so yeah
And also the abysmal reaction our government had to the pandemic but before, as it happened, and now is absolute depressing and nothing's gonna change
You can't use the 2.3% figure there. It's only suspended for under-55. We know there is a very large curve in mortality. 15580 of the 22691 deaths are from the 80+ cohort
Fatality for
0-19 is 0.003%
20-29 is 0.02%
30-39 is 0.05%
40-49 is 0.13%
50-59 is 0.49%
60-69 is 2.22%
70-79 is 9.5%
80+ is 24.6%
150 will die from the vaccine. If we continue at 4000 cases/day, of which 60% are in 0-49, which have a normalized 0.05% fatality rate, that's 1.2 deaths per day, which will end up with the vaccine killing more than the virus
We won't get to sub-55 until the summer, at which point we managed to get to 300/day nation-wide which is 0.1 deaths/day and very much in favour of the vaccine killing way more. If we are just replicating last year's charts we should peak soon, hold steady and drop for may/june.
Basically it comes down to: as a member of a cohort is 0.000004% fatality anywhere near (covid fatality) * (chance you contract it) - because the entire population will get vaccinated, but not necessarily get infected
On the other hand, though, I also know that we're experiencing stunning and frustratingly high levels of vaccine hesitancy. There are concerns about the AZ vaccine and appearing to do nothing or dismiss these concerns while also doing nothing isn't a winning play. The only way to assuage people's fears over this vaccine and others is by doing something.
But on the other other hand, just because you have to do something, it doesn't mean you have to do this. We're already dealing with difficulties getting sufficient vaccine, removing the supply of a vaccine that we have plenty of doses of and are expecting plenty more right as our third wave is starting to get bad is fucking stupid.
I'm furious about how so many levels of government in this country have fucked up the handling of this pandemic. Canada is broken, and nearly 23,000 Canadians are dead because of this dysfunction.
I'm so mad, and so tired.
Let's approve AZ regardless if it has lower effectiveness.... Wait, for only those under 65. No , let's make it for everyone and spend weeks telling folks it's totally safe and to not shop or wait for another vaccine. Oh, let's change our mind again and make it for only those OVER 55 now.
All this based on what seems to be a total lack of data. This is straight-up going to cause more deaths than any complication and all this while we are actually receiving 1.5 million doses this week. I 100% guarantee we are going to see news stories of AZ vaccines going to waste in the next week or two because no one wants it now.
(I don't know what was up with "this special priority group will get astrazeneca," though, that always was weird)
I already know 3 x people that are refusing to get their 2nd AZ shot.
Making this decision on the eve of the largest AZ vaccine shipment we have received stinks of folks trying to cover their ass. NACI is now the biggest cause of Vaccine hesitancy in the country I really hope they are proud of themselves.
I totally understand using data to support changing positions but this is the same group that also supports splitting shots over 4 months with exactly zero study data to back that up. A week ago they were literally saying to get whatever shot you can and not wait..... and now they muddy the waters more on what seems like the flimsiest of data.
refusing the 2nd shot is especially insane if you had no adverse reaction to the first one. this is TERRIBLE what the government had done here.
what they need to do is educate the populace about the vaccine and instead they've done the total reverse
Well, if the government didn't just announce how unsafe the fucking thing is they would not be this worried.
J&J shot delivery starting end of April
One-shot is just so much easier to coordinate.
Absolutely true, but it seems like coordination is less of an issue than amount atm. Moar production is the bottleneck breaker, I think?
Ontario seems unable to distribute the vaccines they have and that problem is going to ramp up as they are now going to be getting more doses per week by a factor of 10x. 5 x million J&J doses are 5 x million appointments to fully vaccinate 5 x, million people.
Pfizer is 10 x million doses to vaccinate 5 x million folks over 10 x million appointments.
I booked online for both my parents, across two different age categories (75+ and 70+), and took the first slots I could find. It just so happened that they got their first shots within a week of each other. When booking your first one, "the system" automatically books your second shot for you. I suppose a lot of things could happen between now and July, but so far it looks like grandparents and grandchildren could be hugging each other by the middle of summer!!
This is province by province. My wife got hers a month ago and they were like "we'll call you sometime between like 45 and 90 days to schedule your (SCIENTIFICALLY ADVISED TO BE 21 DAY) follow up."
But BC seems particularly clownshoesy. At least we're not Alberta????
No? There's like a 3-4 day backlog. Ontario is one of the highest ratios of doses administered / doses delivered currently
Don't get me wrong AB has a lot of clowns in charge but I will stack up against our vaccination campaign against any provinces so far.
Either way, the province claims they can handle way more doses per week than we have, and we don’t seem to be receiving them fast enough to make that into a transparent lie just yet.
One gym, the Mega Fitness Gym, decided to ignore public health guidelines.
They infected 68 (known) people, who went on to infect more and cause 8 separate outbreaks around town, including in a school. Overnight we went up to 250 new cases a day. And starting tomorrow we're back to maximum confinement, everything except essential businesses shut down, schools closed, strict curfew in effect.
One irresponsible fucking gym literally shut down our entire national capital at least for the next two weeks.
I hope they keep those motherfucking gyms closed until we're at 100% vaccination and the virus is eradicated polio-style.
I mean, if you sit and sweat at your dining table for 5 minutes then swap tables with someone else who did the same on theirs, sure. But also, tell me where you're going out to eat so I can avoid it like the plague.
Do you have magic barriers between tables?
Any indoor gathering places that are not essential to life should be shut. The gym is worse than a restaurant just based on how far people would be spreading their droplets when physically exerting, but the turn over of people and mingling in restaurants makes indoor dining totally unreasonable to have open.
It's telling that things are going to shit here in BC when those two things, indoor fitness and dining were opened, and now that we're at our worst cases in a day ever, they have shut them down.
What the plan should have been was always obvious imo:
- shut everything non-essential down to contain the spread
- try and find some way to reopen schools when and only if it's safe
- literally nothing else and anyone whinging about going to the gym or eating at fucking Montana's or whatever gets dragged into the streets by roving masked posses and beaten with sacks full of doorknobs
Yes. In French, we call them "plastique".
We can put the Vancouver guy who used his bike to smash the window of the Covid denier with a bullhorn in charge.
IMO servers are the vector for indoor dining. And patios outdoors. Servers interact with so many groups so often in a day that they will eventually interact with someone who has it and doesn’t know it, then spread it.
Patios actually seem to have solid discipline in their spacing around here, but people passing the patios on the street are often forced closer than distancing requires, just due to geography. Eventually, someone on the street without a mask, or someone at a table without a mask, is going to be a flashpoint.
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The what now?
Edit: Or just use an one of those handheld emergency air horns
I never finish anyth
Mock down. Again, it won't do a god damned thing. Until we do an ACTUAL PROPER shut down, this will do nothing at all. I am so damned tired...
I own an Indoor Playground and had a day job designing awards and trophies...
Sharing this from my facebook because I can't do anything else but piss and moan...
3rd wave... the completely preventable 3rd wave... Watch us do nothing EXCEPT for punish the least secure of us again.
How does vaccinating only a portion of the population protect us without a proper and total shutdown?
How does a business like mine EVER open again?
How can I find a job that will properly support my family in constant instability?
4 weeks. That's it. If we properly shut down for 4 weeks:
No travel. Including inter-city/interprovincial.
Nobody working who does not need to.
Hell, put the military in the grocery stores. Total curbside ordering only. THEY can help those who cannot order online. They can take calls from those without computers.
In the first 2 weeks, the current round of infections would burn out. 2 more weeks for the rest.
This is NOT impossible.
It is NOT impractical.
It is DIFFICULT.
I am so damned tired of people conflating those 3 terms.
If we DON'T do this right THIS TIME, what next? What happens if we rely on the vaccines and they are not as effective as reported? What happens if we develop our own variants?
And before the inevitable chime-ins:
YOU don't NEED to WORK. You NEED FOOD and a ROOF, etc.
You need a JOB to RETURN TO.
Your BUSINESS does not NEED to be OPEN, it NEEDS to be PROTECTED from this event that is completely out of YOUR CONTROL.
Please stop protesting to get us BACK TO NORMAL by sacrificing others. The only, ONLY, O N L Y way we will EVER get back to "NORMAL" is to get the virus under CONTROL.
Period.
That's it.
The vaccine WILL NOT SAVE US. We cannot possibly dose enough of us FAST ENOUGH to be effective against a fully raging virus.
We HAVE to do BOTH.
We have had dozens of calls over the past year, likely 10 in just the last 7+ days, asking when we will reopen the APC and I just do not know how to do so safely while the virus rages on.
Cleaning before & after does not prevent a infection from spreading to all inside while they play.
I WILL NOT be responsible for getting a child sick, or worse.
I may (any of you may) actually be immunocompromised.
Just before this all started I was in the hospital for 3 days due to an infection that attacked nearly everything in my midsection. I was STILL showing signs of liver damage Last March.
Please, PLEASE DO MORE than this useless government is asking. Please STOP trying to ignore the realities of all this and fighting for the SCRAPS those in power are willing to leave you with.
PLEASE DEMAND WE DO THIS RIGHT.
Thanks for reading my TED TALK.
Don't fucking sit there and tell us you're taking it seriously, when you're going to half-ass these lockdowns and open them back up far too early.
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For four weeks.
Like... just shut shit down for 3 months if that's what it takes but fuck off with this stop and start bullshit.