OrcaAlso known as EspressosaurusWrexRegistered Userregular
edited August 2020
So let's run some numbers with really simple extrapolations done with only the most basic of assumptions.
Facts:
* Population of the US is ~330 million people
* ~160K people have died of the 'Rona (almost certainly an undercount)
* The US has topped 5 million confirmed cases
Assumptions:
IFR (Infection Fatality Rate, or the mortality rate due to COVID-19 across the population regardless of whether it was diagnosed or not prior to death) is between 0.5% and 1%
Assuming a 0.5% IFR, simple extrapolation says the fraction of population with COVID-19 has been at least 9.7% of the population. Call it 10% for ease of calculation. Or the true number of infected is 32 million people.
Assuming a 1.0% IFR, the numbers put us even further from hopes of herd immunity despite the pain suffered so far: at least ~5% of the population, or 16 million infected.
I think because of Trump's paper fumbling in the Axios interview I'm seeing more creative stats interpretation mostly revolving around US has low mortality rates compared to other countries...see it's not that bad.
I'd rather live somewhere with 5 cases with 100% fatality than 5 million cases with 1% fatality.
With the coming new school year, Quebec released a report detailing infection counts from schools that reopened in the April-June period. The numbers are surprisingly pretty low, like 39 cases over 3 months in some jurisdictions. If testing and proper controls steps are put in place it is feasible. I feel bad for regions taking the approach of going in blind instead.
I wonder if Biden takes over he will let the CDC do their job we will start seeing numbers that are closer to reality. It would be nice if excess death numbers published in 2021 aren't too much of a surprise.
A family member posted this garbage on Facebook about how wearing a mask gives you a lung infection from breathing in your own bacteria and the doctors lie and say you caught COVID. It was all I could do not to disown them on the spot. I'm still waiting to hear back why all the doctors, nurses, medical technicians etc who wear masks 12 hours a day on the reg haven't been falling over dead nonstop from this mythical lung infection.
I mean, when you bring your mask down to your chin, you break sterile field and contaminate the interior of the mask and have to get a new one. But I’m sure this fact got twisted into the malarkey about masks “giving you infections”, which, you know, is countered by a massive amount of observational and case controlled evidence. Just like that whole micron size bullshit.
Only if your mask is n95 and has a seal. If it’s a cloth mask you already were breathing whatever landed on your chin and so dragging it down is not a significant issue.
+14
Options
OrcaAlso known as EspressosaurusWrexRegistered Userregular
Yeah, the excess death numbers are going to be interesting. How much of an undercount is that 160K?
Yeah, the excess death numbers are going to be interesting. How much of an undercount is that 160K?
Lots. One number I saw was March to May we had 28% more death than usual. Some of that won't be COVID of course. And some will be pandemic related but not COVID. The heart attacks that die because they're terrified to go to the hospital, etc.
And that's with just "scrambling to report right", the same things that happen in a bad flu year. Now? Wtf knows
+4
Options
OrcaAlso known as EspressosaurusWrexRegistered Userregular
And the less available elective surgeries and dental care are available, the greater the second-order deaths are from COVID. It sucks.
Yeah, the excess death numbers are going to be interesting. How much of an undercount is that 160K?
Lots. One number I saw was March to May we had 28% more death than usual. Some of that won't be COVID of course. And some will be pandemic related but not COVID. The heart attacks that die because they're terrified to go to the hospital, etc.
And that's with just "scrambling to report right", the same things that happen in a bad flu year. Now? Wtf knows
I heard on NPR that projections were going to have covid as the 3rd leading cause of death in America, behind heart disease and cancer.
CDC actually has a lot of nice data tools buried down in its website once you dig around. Not as good as the office of national statistics in the UK, but, once you look at what we know our continued stupidity in keeping bars open and allowing people to travel for non essential purposes is not because the government doesn't have good estimates of what is going on!
So let's run some numbers with really simple extrapolations done with only the most basic of assumptions.
Facts:
* Population of the US is ~330 million people
* ~160K people have died of the 'Rona (almost certainly an undercount)
* The US has topped 5 million confirmed cases
Assumptions:
IFR (Infection Fatality Rate, or the mortality rate due to COVID-19 across the population regardless of whether it was diagnosed or not prior to death) is between 0.5% and 1%
Assuming a 0.5% IFR, simple extrapolation says the fraction of population with COVID-19 has been at least 9.7% of the population. Call it 10% for ease of calculation. Or the true number of infected is 32 million people.
Assuming a 1.0% IFR, the numbers put us even further from hopes of herd immunity despite the pain suffered so far: at least ~5% of the population, or 16 million infected.
We have got to get this shit under control.
Oh shit, I did the basic math based on the idea that US would have to hit 70% to get herd immunity. Assuming 65% more infections with the same death toll ratio that comes to (160k*13) 2.080.000 more deaths. Like over 2 million more deaths from this motherfucker. Herd Immunity is the not only a pipe dream, but a fucking expensive one at that.
The sky was full of stars, every star an exploding ship. One of ours.
+8
Options
ceresWhen the last moon is cast over the last star of morningAnd the future has past without even a last desperate warningRegistered User, Moderatormod
edited August 2020
On the 7th this guy died from covid. Stephen Williams was a senior United States Circuit Judge of the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit.
I'm not entirely positive what that title means because that class was a long time ago, but someone important probably does, so considering our current absolute horror show of a Senate it might be worth knowing about.
ceres on
And it seems like all is dying, and would leave the world to mourn
0
Options
OrcaAlso known as EspressosaurusWrexRegistered Userregular
So let's run some numbers with really simple extrapolations done with only the most basic of assumptions.
Facts:
* Population of the US is ~330 million people
* ~160K people have died of the 'Rona (almost certainly an undercount)
* The US has topped 5 million confirmed cases
Assumptions:
IFR (Infection Fatality Rate, or the mortality rate due to COVID-19 across the population regardless of whether it was diagnosed or not prior to death) is between 0.5% and 1%
Assuming a 0.5% IFR, simple extrapolation says the fraction of population with COVID-19 has been at least 9.7% of the population. Call it 10% for ease of calculation. Or the true number of infected is 32 million people.
Assuming a 1.0% IFR, the numbers put us even further from hopes of herd immunity despite the pain suffered so far: at least ~5% of the population, or 16 million infected.
We have got to get this shit under control.
Oh shit, I did the basic math based on the idea that US would have to hit 70% to get herd immunity. Assuming 65% more infections with the same death toll ratio that comes to (160k*13) 2.080.000 more deaths. Like over 2 million more deaths from this motherfucker. Herd Immunity is the not only a pipe dream, but a fucking expensive one at that.
It depends on your assumptions. If it's a 0.5% IFR, we're looking at around 1.1 million dead. At 1%, it's obviously double that, or around 2.2 million dead. Of course, given the growth we could easily overshoot that 70% mark which means even more dead on our hands.
The cost of herd immunity is an order of magnitude more death than we have already seen. And that's the best case.
On the 7th this guy died from covid. Stephen Williams was a senior United States Circuit Judge of the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit.
I'm not entirely positive what that title means because that class was a long time ago, but someone important probably does, so considering our current absolute horror show of a Senate it might be worth knowing about.
Nominated by Reagan, so at least it's not as bad as it could have been.
On the 7th this guy died from covid. Stephen Williams was a senior United States Circuit Judge of the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit.
I'm not entirely positive what that title means because that class was a long time ago, but someone important probably does, so considering our current absolute horror show of a Senate it might be worth knowing about.
Minimal. He was on the Federal Appeals court (regular courtroom->appeals->SCOTUS), but the one he was on only covers DC. So very limited jurisdiction. It's influential as a lot of SCOTUS justices end up on it before heading to the SCOTUS but at 83 he wasn't going to. One more asshole judge for Trump to nominate to replace him, so not ideal, but not huge.
I posted before stressing out about what to do about my upcoming wedding in September. We made the obvious and inevitably choice to push it out a ways. Turns out so many people have being doing that that all the venues and vendors are booked up pretty far out, so "a ways" in this case is "a year".
Still trying to get married this year, though, so planned a front yard ceremony at my fiancee's grandfather's house with 10-ish immediate family members who have all been trying to isolate themselves other than contact with one another... only now my mom's not feeling well, so that sucks. She doesn't know how she'd have caught it if it's covid and she's in SC, which is apparently not an easy place to get tested, so I guess we'll see.
On the 7th this guy died from covid. Stephen Williams was a senior United States Circuit Judge of the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit.
I'm not entirely positive what that title means because that class was a long time ago, but someone important probably does, so considering our current absolute horror show of a Senate it might be worth knowing about.
Nominated by Reagan, so at least it's not as bad as it could have been.
So a liberal by today’s standards, then? Dr Fauci was appointed by Reagan.
I just had to make a Walmart run, honestly was a good % of masks and distance. So without that to worry about I noticed something else that sure put a visual on the timeline of isolation. And ya anecdotal, but holy cow, like 60% of the people in Wal-Mart were deep pregnant. Like I thought I might have accidentally wandered into a maternity store
ceresWhen the last moon is cast over the last star of morningAnd the future has past without even a last desperate warningRegistered User, Moderatormod
On the 7th this guy died from covid. Stephen Williams was a senior United States Circuit Judge of the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit.
I'm not entirely positive what that title means because that class was a long time ago, but someone important probably does, so considering our current absolute horror show of a Senate it might be worth knowing about.
Nominated by Reagan, so at least it's not as bad as it could have been.
On the 7th this guy died from covid. Stephen Williams was a senior United States Circuit Judge of the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit.
I'm not entirely positive what that title means because that class was a long time ago, but someone important probably does, so considering our current absolute horror show of a Senate it might be worth knowing about.
Minimal. He was on the Federal Appeals court (regular courtroom->appeals->SCOTUS), but the one he was on only covers DC. So very limited jurisdiction. It's influential as a lot of SCOTUS justices end up on it before heading to the SCOTUS but at 83 he wasn't going to. One more asshole judge for Trump to nominate to replace him, so not ideal, but not huge.
The importance of his position and the weight of the decision that go through it were my main concern.
ceres on
And it seems like all is dying, and would leave the world to mourn
On the 7th this guy died from covid. Stephen Williams was a senior United States Circuit Judge of the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit.
I'm not entirely positive what that title means because that class was a long time ago, but someone important probably does, so considering our current absolute horror show of a Senate it might be worth knowing about.
Minimal. He was on the Federal Appeals court (regular courtroom->appeals->SCOTUS), but the one he was on only covers DC. So very limited jurisdiction. It's influential as a lot of SCOTUS justices end up on it before heading to the SCOTUS but at 83 he wasn't going to. One more asshole judge for Trump to nominate to replace him, so not ideal, but not huge.
This is exactly wrong. It's by far the most powerful appeals court because it's in DC.
Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
+8
Options
Munkus BeaverYou don't have to attend every argument you are invited to.Philosophy: Stoicism. Politics: Democratic SocialistRegistered User, ClubPAregular
IIRC one of the most important 2nd amendment cases in the last century came out of the DC circuit. It’s not as unimportant as “oh, only a few cases go through there” as that is often a testing ground for what the federal government can and cannot do (since DC is unique in having a federal but no state government)
Humor can be dissected as a frog can, but dies in the process.
On the 7th this guy died from covid. Stephen Williams was a senior United States Circuit Judge of the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit.
I'm not entirely positive what that title means because that class was a long time ago, but someone important probably does, so considering our current absolute horror show of a Senate it might be worth knowing about.
Nominated by Reagan, so at least it's not as bad as it could have been.
On the 7th this guy died from covid. Stephen Williams was a senior United States Circuit Judge of the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit.
I'm not entirely positive what that title means because that class was a long time ago, but someone important probably does, so considering our current absolute horror show of a Senate it might be worth knowing about.
Minimal. He was on the Federal Appeals court (regular courtroom->appeals->SCOTUS), but the one he was on only covers DC. So very limited jurisdiction. It's influential as a lot of SCOTUS justices end up on it before heading to the SCOTUS but at 83 he wasn't going to. One more asshole judge for Trump to nominate to replace him, so not ideal, but not huge.
The importance of his position and the weight of the decision that go through it were my main concern.
An equal concern is what his politics were. If he was a liberal judge, that would be another court leaned towards crazytown because you know McConnell is gonna ram a nomination through come hell or high water. Since he's a Reagan appointee odds are it's just holding steady. Which is still bad because you want the Dems to replace these people, not the GOP, but it's not as bad as flipping a seat.
I just had to make a Walmart run, honestly was a good % of masks and distance. So without that to worry about I noticed something else that sure put a visual on the timeline of isolation. And ya anecdotal, but holy cow, like 60% of the people in Wal-Mart were deep pregnant. Like I thought I might have accidentally wandered into a maternity store
Another baby boom on top of everything else is just... great.
0
Options
Magus`The fun has been DOUBLED!Registered Userregular
CDC actually has a lot of nice data tools buried down in its website once you dig around. Not as good as the office of national statistics in the UK, but, once you look at what we know our continued stupidity in keeping bars open and allowing people to travel for non essential purposes is not because the government doesn't have good estimates of what is going on!
I have a feeling these numbers might be a bit on the conservative side. If I'm reading it right, the first number (156,000) is the amount of deaths over an "upper bound", which means 95% of recorded years are below that number. The higher number (212,000) is comparing the deaths to the average number of deaths in previous years, so probably much more accurate overall. To put it in perspective, every single week of the two years prior to Covid-19 was below their "upper bound" by a considerable extent.
Another thing to consider with this method of measuring is that one might expect social distancing/staying at home to reduce many types of deaths. Not just the obvious like influenza deaths, but things like car accidents. So if a study shows 10,000 more deaths than average in a period where most people are isolated, that may represent more than 10,000 Covid-19 deaths. Though it's possible some causes of death may go up as a result of such things as the stress and being afraid of going to hospitals, so it can be harder to estimate. If I were a betting man I'd suspect the real number of Covid-19 deaths is closer to 212,000 than the official numbers, though.
I just had to make a Walmart run, honestly was a good % of masks and distance. So without that to worry about I noticed something else that sure put a visual on the timeline of isolation. And ya anecdotal, but holy cow, like 60% of the people in Wal-Mart were deep pregnant. Like I thought I might have accidentally wandered into a maternity store
Another baby boom on top of everything else is just... great.
Well at least in about 10 years there will be a group of people who can look at people both older and younger than themselves and say
I just had to make a Walmart run, honestly was a good % of masks and distance. So without that to worry about I noticed something else that sure put a visual on the timeline of isolation. And ya anecdotal, but holy cow, like 60% of the people in Wal-Mart were deep pregnant. Like I thought I might have accidentally wandered into a maternity store
Another baby boom on top of everything else is just... great.
My favourite observation on this is that with the lockdowns there will be a baby boom, but only of firstborn children...
The older I get the more convinced I am that most people have just substituted science for magic in their ape brains and have no grasp on how it works as a process in even the broadest of strokes.
Every person who goes "It's just a theory." confirms that they have no idea what a theory is, as well as to have no respect for the time or words of a person that inconveniences them.
I just had to make a Walmart run, honestly was a good % of masks and distance. So without that to worry about I noticed something else that sure put a visual on the timeline of isolation. And ya anecdotal, but holy cow, like 60% of the people in Wal-Mart were deep pregnant. Like I thought I might have accidentally wandered into a maternity store
Another baby boom on top of everything else is just... great.
My favourite observation on this is that with the lockdowns there will be a baby boom, but only of firstborn children...
Honestly one of my silver linings on this thing is that while I'm furloughed and making a little less money on unemployment with an uncertain employment future ahead of me, I've gotten a ton of time to be with my newborn. If times were normal I would have had maybe a week to bond and then back to the work grind while they spend all day with mommy, and then three months later daycare all day while we both work. Instead I'm furloughed and I get to spend a ton of time with my kid and really take the time to be present and enjoy this time with them being a little ball of cuteness.
CDC actually has a lot of nice data tools buried down in its website once you dig around. Not as good as the office of national statistics in the UK, but, once you look at what we know our continued stupidity in keeping bars open and allowing people to travel for non essential purposes is not because the government doesn't have good estimates of what is going on!
I have a feeling these numbers might be a bit on the conservative side. If I'm reading it right, the first number (156,000) is the amount of deaths over an "upper bound", which means 95% of recorded years are below that number. The higher number (212,000) is comparing the deaths to the average number of deaths in previous years, so probably much more accurate overall. To put it in perspective, every single week of the two years prior to Covid-19 was below their "upper bound" by a considerable extent.
Another thing to consider with this method of measuring is that one might expect social distancing/staying at home to reduce many types of deaths. Not just the obvious like influenza deaths, but things like car accidents. So if a study shows 10,000 more deaths than average in a period where most people are isolated, that may represent more than 10,000 Covid-19 deaths. Though it's possible some causes of death may go up as a result of such things as the stress and being afraid of going to hospitals, so it can be harder to estimate. If I were a betting man I'd suspect the real number of Covid-19 deaths is closer to 212,000 than the official numbers, though.
I would agree, although I do think it is very unlikely that deaths caused (indirectly or directly) by Covid19 are over 212k at this point. But, I do think the numbers are closer to the higher end.
When it comes to the new rules for the novel coronavirus, airlines like Delta are taking them very seriously. So far, the carrier has banned 100 anti-maskers from taking their flights and gone a step further by adding them to a "no fly" list.
Delta says its strict policies about masking are part of an effort to promote best public health practices and safety amid the pandemic.
And nothing of value was lost
+46
Options
FeriluceAdrift on the morning star.Aberdeen, WARegistered Userregular
I just had to make a Walmart run, honestly was a good % of masks and distance. So without that to worry about I noticed something else that sure put a visual on the timeline of isolation. And ya anecdotal, but holy cow, like 60% of the people in Wal-Mart were deep pregnant. Like I thought I might have accidentally wandered into a maternity store
Another baby boom on top of everything else is just... great.
My favourite observation on this is that with the lockdowns there will be a baby boom, but only of firstborn children...
Honestly one of my silver linings on this thing is that while I'm furloughed and making a little less money on unemployment with an uncertain employment future ahead of me, I've gotten a ton of time to be with my newborn. If times were normal I would have had maybe a week to bond and then back to the work grind while they spend all day with mommy, and then three months later daycare all day while we both work. Instead I'm furloughed and I get to spend a ton of time with my kid and really take the time to be present and enjoy this time with them being a little ball of cuteness.
I am in the same situation, and the amount of time I have been able to spend with my now 11 mo. old has been great. Small blessings and all that.
Posts
Facts:
* Population of the US is ~330 million people
* ~160K people have died of the 'Rona (almost certainly an undercount)
* The US has topped 5 million confirmed cases
Assumptions:
IFR (Infection Fatality Rate, or the mortality rate due to COVID-19 across the population regardless of whether it was diagnosed or not prior to death) is between 0.5% and 1%
Assuming a 0.5% IFR, simple extrapolation says the fraction of population with COVID-19 has been at least 9.7% of the population. Call it 10% for ease of calculation. Or the true number of infected is 32 million people.
Assuming a 1.0% IFR, the numbers put us even further from hopes of herd immunity despite the pain suffered so far: at least ~5% of the population, or 16 million infected.
We have got to get this shit under control.
:bro:
I'd rather live somewhere with 5 cases with 100% fatality than 5 million cases with 1% fatality.
With the coming new school year, Quebec released a report detailing infection counts from schools that reopened in the April-June period. The numbers are surprisingly pretty low, like 39 cases over 3 months in some jurisdictions. If testing and proper controls steps are put in place it is feasible. I feel bad for regions taking the approach of going in blind instead.
I wonder if Biden takes over he will let the CDC do their job we will start seeing numbers that are closer to reality. It would be nice if excess death numbers published in 2021 aren't too much of a surprise.
Only if your mask is n95 and has a seal. If it’s a cloth mask you already were breathing whatever landed on your chin and so dragging it down is not a significant issue.
Lots. One number I saw was March to May we had 28% more death than usual. Some of that won't be COVID of course. And some will be pandemic related but not COVID. The heart attacks that die because they're terrified to go to the hospital, etc.
And that's with just "scrambling to report right", the same things that happen in a bad flu year. Now? Wtf knows
Over what time period? The whole year so far? (I hope)
Yes.
I heard on NPR that projections were going to have covid as the 3rd leading cause of death in America, behind heart disease and cancer.
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/08/06/900000671/300-000-deaths-by-december-9-takeaways-of-the-newest-covid-19-projections
CDC numbers suggest between 150 and 210 thousand more deaths than expected this year.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
CDC actually has a lot of nice data tools buried down in its website once you dig around. Not as good as the office of national statistics in the UK, but, once you look at what we know our continued stupidity in keeping bars open and allowing people to travel for non essential purposes is not because the government doesn't have good estimates of what is going on!
Oh shit, I did the basic math based on the idea that US would have to hit 70% to get herd immunity. Assuming 65% more infections with the same death toll ratio that comes to (160k*13) 2.080.000 more deaths. Like over 2 million more deaths from this motherfucker. Herd Immunity is the not only a pipe dream, but a fucking expensive one at that.
I'm not entirely positive what that title means because that class was a long time ago, but someone important probably does, so considering our current absolute horror show of a Senate it might be worth knowing about.
It depends on your assumptions. If it's a 0.5% IFR, we're looking at around 1.1 million dead. At 1%, it's obviously double that, or around 2.2 million dead. Of course, given the growth we could easily overshoot that 70% mark which means even more dead on our hands.
The cost of herd immunity is an order of magnitude more death than we have already seen. And that's the best case.
Nominated by Reagan, so at least it's not as bad as it could have been.
Minimal. He was on the Federal Appeals court (regular courtroom->appeals->SCOTUS), but the one he was on only covers DC. So very limited jurisdiction. It's influential as a lot of SCOTUS justices end up on it before heading to the SCOTUS but at 83 he wasn't going to. One more asshole judge for Trump to nominate to replace him, so not ideal, but not huge.
Still trying to get married this year, though, so planned a front yard ceremony at my fiancee's grandfather's house with 10-ish immediate family members who have all been trying to isolate themselves other than contact with one another... only now my mom's not feeling well, so that sucks. She doesn't know how she'd have caught it if it's covid and she's in SC, which is apparently not an easy place to get tested, so I guess we'll see.
So a liberal by today’s standards, then? Dr Fauci was appointed by Reagan.
This is a decidedly bad way to look at this.
The importance of his position and the weight of the decision that go through it were my main concern.
This is exactly wrong. It's by far the most powerful appeals court because it's in DC.
An equal concern is what his politics were. If he was a liberal judge, that would be another court leaned towards crazytown because you know McConnell is gonna ram a nomination through come hell or high water. Since he's a Reagan appointee odds are it's just holding steady. Which is still bad because you want the Dems to replace these people, not the GOP, but it's not as bad as flipping a seat.
Another baby boom on top of everything else is just... great.
Steam Profile | Signature art by Alexandra 'Lexxy' Douglass
I have a feeling these numbers might be a bit on the conservative side. If I'm reading it right, the first number (156,000) is the amount of deaths over an "upper bound", which means 95% of recorded years are below that number. The higher number (212,000) is comparing the deaths to the average number of deaths in previous years, so probably much more accurate overall. To put it in perspective, every single week of the two years prior to Covid-19 was below their "upper bound" by a considerable extent.
Another thing to consider with this method of measuring is that one might expect social distancing/staying at home to reduce many types of deaths. Not just the obvious like influenza deaths, but things like car accidents. So if a study shows 10,000 more deaths than average in a period where most people are isolated, that may represent more than 10,000 Covid-19 deaths. Though it's possible some causes of death may go up as a result of such things as the stress and being afraid of going to hospitals, so it can be harder to estimate. If I were a betting man I'd suspect the real number of Covid-19 deaths is closer to 212,000 than the official numbers, though.
@Magus` If you read a new thread to the end before book marking it you can dodge that bug.
Well at least in about 10 years there will be a group of people who can look at people both older and younger than themselves and say
"Ok Boomer"
Weird, I thought I had been. I'm try again with the next thread.
Steam Profile | Signature art by Alexandra 'Lexxy' Douglass
They're closed for Monday and Tuesday. No word beyond that yet.
My favourite observation on this is that with the lockdowns there will be a baby boom, but only of firstborn children...
Every person who goes "It's just a theory." confirms that they have no idea what a theory is, as well as to have no respect for the time or words of a person that inconveniences them.
Honestly one of my silver linings on this thing is that while I'm furloughed and making a little less money on unemployment with an uncertain employment future ahead of me, I've gotten a ton of time to be with my newborn. If times were normal I would have had maybe a week to bond and then back to the work grind while they spend all day with mommy, and then three months later daycare all day while we both work. Instead I'm furloughed and I get to spend a ton of time with my kid and really take the time to be present and enjoy this time with them being a little ball of cuteness.
I would agree, although I do think it is very unlikely that deaths caused (indirectly or directly) by Covid19 are over 212k at this point. But, I do think the numbers are closer to the higher end.
I am in the same situation, and the amount of time I have been able to spend with my now 11 mo. old has been great. Small blessings and all that.
Steam: Feriluce
Battle.net: Feriluce#1995