The General [Coronavirus] Discussion Thread is WAY worse than the flu

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  • kaidkaid Registered User regular
    Couscous wrote: »
    Washington Post reporter:
    Trump says the nation will “develop a herd mentality” even without a vaccines. Assuming he means “herd immunity.” (Without a vaccine would mean a lot more deaths.)
    Even for Trump, that is horrific.

    Edit: Video:


    "It is going to be herd developed."

    Apparently his talking heads came out this morning to double down on herd mentality as being exactly what he ment to say. So I think we can safely judge him on this as his own official translators signed off on it.

    Elvenshae
  • CouscousCouscous Registered User regular
    tbloxham wrote: »
    Couscous wrote: »
    Herd immunity does not happen without vaccines

    Herd immunity happens routinely all the time without vaccines for all sorts of viruses. It just doesn't mean what people use it to mean, nor does it happen for all viruses, and it doesn't have anything to say about limiting death and destruction from the virus. Nor does it mean the virus goes away always. It just means the virus is endemic rather than pandemic and spread will be slower and more constant rather than explosive.

    Society had herd immunity to polio before the vaccine. We gain herd immunity to the years specific influenza strain every year. Europeans had herd immunity to measles before the vaccine. There are hundreds of viruses in circulation right now to which we have herd immunity with no vaccine.
    Herd immunity requires a very high percentage of the population to be immune and has never happened without vaccines. Viruses waxing and waning is a thing, but that isn't herd immunity.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity
    With p being by itself on the left side of the equation, it can be renamed as pc, representing the critical proportion of the population needed to be immune to stop the transmission of disease, which is the same as the "herd immunity threshold" HIT.[9] R0 functions as a measure of contagiousness, so low R0 values are associated with lower HITs, whereas higher R0s result in higher HITs.[29][42] For example, the HIT for a disease with an R0 of 2 is theoretically only 50%, whereas a disease with an R0 of 10 the theoretical HIT is 90%.[29]

    When the effective reproduction number Re of a contagious disease is reduced to and sustained below 1 new individual per infection, the number of cases occurring in the population gradually decreases until the disease has been eliminated.[9][29][56] If a population is immune to a disease in excess of that disease's HIT, the number of cases reduces at a faster rate, outbreaks are even less likely to happen, and outbreaks that occur are smaller than they would be otherwise.[1][9] If the effective reproduction number increases to above 1, then the disease is neither in a steady state nor decreasing in incidence, but is actively spreading through the population and infecting a larger number of people than usual.[43][56]
    Getting to something like %50 of the population being immune and the disease no longer being endemic has not happened without vaccines from what I can remember.

    ElldrenDevoutlyApatheticzagdrobHahnsoo1shrykeFencingsaxGennenalyse RuebenCaedwyr
  • PaladinPaladin Registered User regular
    Couscous wrote: »
    tbloxham wrote: »
    Couscous wrote: »
    Herd immunity does not happen without vaccines

    Herd immunity happens routinely all the time without vaccines for all sorts of viruses. It just doesn't mean what people use it to mean, nor does it happen for all viruses, and it doesn't have anything to say about limiting death and destruction from the virus. Nor does it mean the virus goes away always. It just means the virus is endemic rather than pandemic and spread will be slower and more constant rather than explosive.

    Society had herd immunity to polio before the vaccine. We gain herd immunity to the years specific influenza strain every year. Europeans had herd immunity to measles before the vaccine. There are hundreds of viruses in circulation right now to which we have herd immunity with no vaccine.
    Herd immunity requires a very high percentage of the population to be immune and has never happened without vaccines. Viruses waxing and waning is a thing, but that isn't herd immunity.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity
    With p being by itself on the left side of the equation, it can be renamed as pc, representing the critical proportion of the population needed to be immune to stop the transmission of disease, which is the same as the "herd immunity threshold" HIT.[9] R0 functions as a measure of contagiousness, so low R0 values are associated with lower HITs, whereas higher R0s result in higher HITs.[29][42] For example, the HIT for a disease with an R0 of 2 is theoretically only 50%, whereas a disease with an R0 of 10 the theoretical HIT is 90%.[29]

    When the effective reproduction number Re of a contagious disease is reduced to and sustained below 1 new individual per infection, the number of cases occurring in the population gradually decreases until the disease has been eliminated.[9][29][56] If a population is immune to a disease in excess of that disease's HIT, the number of cases reduces at a faster rate, outbreaks are even less likely to happen, and outbreaks that occur are smaller than they would be otherwise.[1][9] If the effective reproduction number increases to above 1, then the disease is neither in a steady state nor decreasing in incidence, but is actively spreading through the population and infecting a larger number of people than usual.[43][56]
    Getting to something like %50 of the population being immune and the disease no longer being endemic has not happened without vaccines from what I can remember.

    How close did we get with the 1918 flu

    Marty: The future, it's where you're going?
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  • StarZapperStarZapper Vermont, Bizzaro world.Registered User regular
    Pretty sure the bubonic plague hit herd immunity, but it's not a great example to be using.

  • electricitylikesmeelectricitylikesme Registered User regular
    StarZapper wrote: »
    Pretty sure the bubonic plague hit herd immunity, but it's not a great example to be using.

    Did it? AFAIK you don't become immune to bubonic plague, it's just treatable with antibiotics. Like there wasn't herd immunity in Europe...there just wasn't a "herd" because everyone fucking died.

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  • ElldrenElldren Is a woman dammit ceterum censeoRegistered User regular
    Paladin wrote: »
    Couscous wrote: »
    tbloxham wrote: »
    Couscous wrote: »
    Herd immunity does not happen without vaccines

    Herd immunity happens routinely all the time without vaccines for all sorts of viruses. It just doesn't mean what people use it to mean, nor does it happen for all viruses, and it doesn't have anything to say about limiting death and destruction from the virus. Nor does it mean the virus goes away always. It just means the virus is endemic rather than pandemic and spread will be slower and more constant rather than explosive.

    Society had herd immunity to polio before the vaccine. We gain herd immunity to the years specific influenza strain every year. Europeans had herd immunity to measles before the vaccine. There are hundreds of viruses in circulation right now to which we have herd immunity with no vaccine.
    Herd immunity requires a very high percentage of the population to be immune and has never happened without vaccines. Viruses waxing and waning is a thing, but that isn't herd immunity.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity
    With p being by itself on the left side of the equation, it can be renamed as pc, representing the critical proportion of the population needed to be immune to stop the transmission of disease, which is the same as the "herd immunity threshold" HIT.[9] R0 functions as a measure of contagiousness, so low R0 values are associated with lower HITs, whereas higher R0s result in higher HITs.[29][42] For example, the HIT for a disease with an R0 of 2 is theoretically only 50%, whereas a disease with an R0 of 10 the theoretical HIT is 90%.[29]

    When the effective reproduction number Re of a contagious disease is reduced to and sustained below 1 new individual per infection, the number of cases occurring in the population gradually decreases until the disease has been eliminated.[9][29][56] If a population is immune to a disease in excess of that disease's HIT, the number of cases reduces at a faster rate, outbreaks are even less likely to happen, and outbreaks that occur are smaller than they would be otherwise.[1][9] If the effective reproduction number increases to above 1, then the disease is neither in a steady state nor decreasing in incidence, but is actively spreading through the population and infecting a larger number of people than usual.[43][56]
    Getting to something like %50 of the population being immune and the disease no longer being endemic has not happened without vaccines from what I can remember.

    How close did we get with the 1918 flu

    Considering we’re still dealing with that same flu strain today (H1N1 type A aka Swine Flu)?

    Not particularly close

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  • CelestialBadgerCelestialBadger Registered User regular
    Elldren wrote: »
    Paladin wrote: »
    Couscous wrote: »
    tbloxham wrote: »
    Couscous wrote: »
    Herd immunity does not happen without vaccines

    Herd immunity happens routinely all the time without vaccines for all sorts of viruses. It just doesn't mean what people use it to mean, nor does it happen for all viruses, and it doesn't have anything to say about limiting death and destruction from the virus. Nor does it mean the virus goes away always. It just means the virus is endemic rather than pandemic and spread will be slower and more constant rather than explosive.

    Society had herd immunity to polio before the vaccine. We gain herd immunity to the years specific influenza strain every year. Europeans had herd immunity to measles before the vaccine. There are hundreds of viruses in circulation right now to which we have herd immunity with no vaccine.
    Herd immunity requires a very high percentage of the population to be immune and has never happened without vaccines. Viruses waxing and waning is a thing, but that isn't herd immunity.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity
    With p being by itself on the left side of the equation, it can be renamed as pc, representing the critical proportion of the population needed to be immune to stop the transmission of disease, which is the same as the "herd immunity threshold" HIT.[9] R0 functions as a measure of contagiousness, so low R0 values are associated with lower HITs, whereas higher R0s result in higher HITs.[29][42] For example, the HIT for a disease with an R0 of 2 is theoretically only 50%, whereas a disease with an R0 of 10 the theoretical HIT is 90%.[29]

    When the effective reproduction number Re of a contagious disease is reduced to and sustained below 1 new individual per infection, the number of cases occurring in the population gradually decreases until the disease has been eliminated.[9][29][56] If a population is immune to a disease in excess of that disease's HIT, the number of cases reduces at a faster rate, outbreaks are even less likely to happen, and outbreaks that occur are smaller than they would be otherwise.[1][9] If the effective reproduction number increases to above 1, then the disease is neither in a steady state nor decreasing in incidence, but is actively spreading through the population and infecting a larger number of people than usual.[43][56]
    Getting to something like %50 of the population being immune and the disease no longer being endemic has not happened without vaccines from what I can remember.

    How close did we get with the 1918 flu

    Considering we’re still dealing with that same flu strain today (H1N1 type A aka Swine Flu)?

    Not particularly close

    But it's not killing people at the same rates today, is it?

    So if we let Covid run absolutely rampant, it's quite possible it'd just burn itself out over the next few years and become a common background disease.

  • StarZapperStarZapper Vermont, Bizzaro world.Registered User regular
    StarZapper wrote: »
    Pretty sure the bubonic plague hit herd immunity, but it's not a great example to be using.

    Did it? AFAIK you don't become immune to bubonic plague, it's just treatable with antibiotics. Like there wasn't herd immunity in Europe...there just wasn't a "herd" because everyone fucking died.

    Well, some people have genetic resistance to the disease. Basically it killed off everyone who didn't have certain genetics, so it's a bit different than a viral immunity.

    stopgapCommander Zoom
  • Monkey Ball WarriorMonkey Ball Warrior A collection of mediocre hats Seattle, WARegistered User regular
    Regardless of the semantics around the specific term, I think it is safe to say we should be shooting for a solution more sophisticated than "stand around and wait for it to maybe kill less people".

    "I resent the entire notion of a body as an ante and then raise you a generalized dissatisfaction with physicality itself" -- Tycho
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  • CelestialBadgerCelestialBadger Registered User regular
    StarZapper wrote: »
    Pretty sure the bubonic plague hit herd immunity, but it's not a great example to be using.

    Did it? AFAIK you don't become immune to bubonic plague, it's just treatable with antibiotics. Like there wasn't herd immunity in Europe...there just wasn't a "herd" because everyone fucking died.

    I assume that the high death rate resulted in natural selection for people who had some resistance to catching it. So if 3/4 of a village died of plague, the remaining 1/4 probably had a slight natural genetic resistance?

    Am I wrong, people who actually understand this stuff?

  • ForarForar #432 Toronto, Ontario, CanadaRegistered User regular
    Paladin wrote: »
    Couscous wrote: »
    tbloxham wrote: »
    Couscous wrote: »
    Herd immunity does not happen without vaccines

    Herd immunity happens routinely all the time without vaccines for all sorts of viruses. It just doesn't mean what people use it to mean, nor does it happen for all viruses, and it doesn't have anything to say about limiting death and destruction from the virus. Nor does it mean the virus goes away always. It just means the virus is endemic rather than pandemic and spread will be slower and more constant rather than explosive.

    Society had herd immunity to polio before the vaccine. We gain herd immunity to the years specific influenza strain every year. Europeans had herd immunity to measles before the vaccine. There are hundreds of viruses in circulation right now to which we have herd immunity with no vaccine.
    Herd immunity requires a very high percentage of the population to be immune and has never happened without vaccines. Viruses waxing and waning is a thing, but that isn't herd immunity.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity
    With p being by itself on the left side of the equation, it can be renamed as pc, representing the critical proportion of the population needed to be immune to stop the transmission of disease, which is the same as the "herd immunity threshold" HIT.[9] R0 functions as a measure of contagiousness, so low R0 values are associated with lower HITs, whereas higher R0s result in higher HITs.[29][42] For example, the HIT for a disease with an R0 of 2 is theoretically only 50%, whereas a disease with an R0 of 10 the theoretical HIT is 90%.[29]

    When the effective reproduction number Re of a contagious disease is reduced to and sustained below 1 new individual per infection, the number of cases occurring in the population gradually decreases until the disease has been eliminated.[9][29][56] If a population is immune to a disease in excess of that disease's HIT, the number of cases reduces at a faster rate, outbreaks are even less likely to happen, and outbreaks that occur are smaller than they would be otherwise.[1][9] If the effective reproduction number increases to above 1, then the disease is neither in a steady state nor decreasing in incidence, but is actively spreading through the population and infecting a larger number of people than usual.[43][56]
    Getting to something like %50 of the population being immune and the disease no longer being endemic has not happened without vaccines from what I can remember.

    How close did we get with the 1918 flu

    According to previous comments in this or a similar thread, and a cursory Google'ing, apparently descendant strains of the 1918 influenza strain are still circulating (though obviously, much less lethal variations).

    Given that said flu (at the time) infected an estimated 500 million people and killed an estimated 50 million out of a population around 1.5 billion, contrasting that against Covid-19's 0.5% to 1% CRF (again, cursory number, highly variable across a variety of countries, states, and situations/populations) would see billions of infections and tens of millions dead (usual caveats; risk of higher unnecessary excess deaths related to the collapse of medical infrastructure being overwhelmed, etc).

    As has also been noted in the past, much of the numbers assessing the impact will likely only be estimated in hindsight. With countries and states failing to test broadly enough, hiding their numbers, ignoring deaths, the actual tallies are a mess and unskewing that is going to take someone with better math and medical skills than I've got for sure.

    Which is to say that striving for herd mentality immunity without a vaccine is crazy talk that would have a best case scenario of tens of millions dead worldwide.

    First they came for the Muslims, and we said NOT TODAY, MOTHERFUCKER!
  • DevoutlyApatheticDevoutlyApathetic Registered User regular
    StarZapper wrote: »
    Pretty sure the bubonic plague hit herd immunity, but it's not a great example to be using.

    Did it? AFAIK you don't become immune to bubonic plague, it's just treatable with antibiotics. Like there wasn't herd immunity in Europe...there just wasn't a "herd" because everyone fucking died.

    It is also really damn fast with really obvious, and horrible, symptoms. My understanding is it mostly burned itself out in humans but the problem was reservoir populations amount fleas and the like.

  • PaladinPaladin Registered User regular
    Forar wrote: »
    Paladin wrote: »
    Couscous wrote: »
    tbloxham wrote: »
    Couscous wrote: »
    Herd immunity does not happen without vaccines

    Herd immunity happens routinely all the time without vaccines for all sorts of viruses. It just doesn't mean what people use it to mean, nor does it happen for all viruses, and it doesn't have anything to say about limiting death and destruction from the virus. Nor does it mean the virus goes away always. It just means the virus is endemic rather than pandemic and spread will be slower and more constant rather than explosive.

    Society had herd immunity to polio before the vaccine. We gain herd immunity to the years specific influenza strain every year. Europeans had herd immunity to measles before the vaccine. There are hundreds of viruses in circulation right now to which we have herd immunity with no vaccine.
    Herd immunity requires a very high percentage of the population to be immune and has never happened without vaccines. Viruses waxing and waning is a thing, but that isn't herd immunity.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity
    With p being by itself on the left side of the equation, it can be renamed as pc, representing the critical proportion of the population needed to be immune to stop the transmission of disease, which is the same as the "herd immunity threshold" HIT.[9] R0 functions as a measure of contagiousness, so low R0 values are associated with lower HITs, whereas higher R0s result in higher HITs.[29][42] For example, the HIT for a disease with an R0 of 2 is theoretically only 50%, whereas a disease with an R0 of 10 the theoretical HIT is 90%.[29]

    When the effective reproduction number Re of a contagious disease is reduced to and sustained below 1 new individual per infection, the number of cases occurring in the population gradually decreases until the disease has been eliminated.[9][29][56] If a population is immune to a disease in excess of that disease's HIT, the number of cases reduces at a faster rate, outbreaks are even less likely to happen, and outbreaks that occur are smaller than they would be otherwise.[1][9] If the effective reproduction number increases to above 1, then the disease is neither in a steady state nor decreasing in incidence, but is actively spreading through the population and infecting a larger number of people than usual.[43][56]
    Getting to something like %50 of the population being immune and the disease no longer being endemic has not happened without vaccines from what I can remember.

    How close did we get with the 1918 flu

    According to previous comments in this or a similar thread, and a cursory Google'ing, apparently descendant strains of the 1918 influenza strain are still circulating (though obviously, much less lethal variations).

    Given that said flu (at the time) infected an estimated 500 million people and killed an estimated 50 million out of a population around 1.5 billion, contrasting that against Covid-19's 0.5% to 1% CRF (again, cursory number, highly variable across a variety of countries, states, and situations/populations) would see billions of infections and tens of millions dead (usual caveats; risk of higher unnecessary excess deaths related to the collapse of medical infrastructure being overwhelmed, etc).

    As has also been noted in the past, much of the numbers assessing the impact will likely only be estimated in hindsight. With countries and states failing to test broadly enough, hiding their numbers, ignoring deaths, the actual tallies are a mess and unskewing that is going to take someone with better math and medical skills than I've got for sure.

    Which is to say that striving for herd mentality immunity without a vaccine is crazy talk that would have a best case scenario of tens of millions dead worldwide.

    I think that even with herd immunity, almost every infection will have less-than-epidemic pockets. Diseases generally don't get completely eradicated using passive measures.

    Marty: The future, it's where you're going?
    Doc: That's right, twenty five years into the future. I've always dreamed on seeing the future, looking beyond my years, seeing the progress of mankind. I'll also be able to see who wins the next twenty-five world series.
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  • ElldrenElldren Is a woman dammit ceterum censeoRegistered User regular
    Elldren wrote: »
    Paladin wrote: »
    Couscous wrote: »
    tbloxham wrote: »
    Couscous wrote: »
    Herd immunity does not happen without vaccines

    Herd immunity happens routinely all the time without vaccines for all sorts of viruses. It just doesn't mean what people use it to mean, nor does it happen for all viruses, and it doesn't have anything to say about limiting death and destruction from the virus. Nor does it mean the virus goes away always. It just means the virus is endemic rather than pandemic and spread will be slower and more constant rather than explosive.

    Society had herd immunity to polio before the vaccine. We gain herd immunity to the years specific influenza strain every year. Europeans had herd immunity to measles before the vaccine. There are hundreds of viruses in circulation right now to which we have herd immunity with no vaccine.
    Herd immunity requires a very high percentage of the population to be immune and has never happened without vaccines. Viruses waxing and waning is a thing, but that isn't herd immunity.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity
    With p being by itself on the left side of the equation, it can be renamed as pc, representing the critical proportion of the population needed to be immune to stop the transmission of disease, which is the same as the "herd immunity threshold" HIT.[9] R0 functions as a measure of contagiousness, so low R0 values are associated with lower HITs, whereas higher R0s result in higher HITs.[29][42] For example, the HIT for a disease with an R0 of 2 is theoretically only 50%, whereas a disease with an R0 of 10 the theoretical HIT is 90%.[29]

    When the effective reproduction number Re of a contagious disease is reduced to and sustained below 1 new individual per infection, the number of cases occurring in the population gradually decreases until the disease has been eliminated.[9][29][56] If a population is immune to a disease in excess of that disease's HIT, the number of cases reduces at a faster rate, outbreaks are even less likely to happen, and outbreaks that occur are smaller than they would be otherwise.[1][9] If the effective reproduction number increases to above 1, then the disease is neither in a steady state nor decreasing in incidence, but is actively spreading through the population and infecting a larger number of people than usual.[43][56]
    Getting to something like %50 of the population being immune and the disease no longer being endemic has not happened without vaccines from what I can remember.

    How close did we get with the 1918 flu

    Considering we’re still dealing with that same flu strain today (H1N1 type A aka Swine Flu)?

    Not particularly close

    But it's not killing people at the same rates today, is it?

    So if we let Covid run absolutely rampant, it's quite possible it'd just burn itself out over the next few years and become a common background disease.

    Well no

    Because we’ve developed vaccines

    Otherwise it would be p devastating still

    Like even with all the new treatments and prophylaxes available the 2009 pandemic was p bad

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  • GilgaronGilgaron Registered User regular
    Yeah plague changed gene distribution where it went through, it wasn't herd immunity so much as natural selection. Even then, if you get enough plague to display symptoms you're as good as dead.

    Commander Zoom
  • HydropoloHydropolo Registered User regular
    It's funny when we talked about the downfall of a superpower like the US, this is more or less exactly the type of thing which it referred to. No one is saying "what does the CDC say" anymore - everyone is waiting on the EU member states and EU's equivalent organization.

    That trust isn't going to be coming back soon. Possibly ever.

    Never say "ever". We're talking about Germany as one of the most trusted countries on earth. I imagine people in the 30's/40's were pretty sure no one would ever trust them again. So. no one will ever trust the CDC in my lifetime probably though...

    kimeGennenalyse Rueben
  • ForarForar #432 Toronto, Ontario, CanadaRegistered User regular
    Especially if there's a non-human reservoir somewhere, definitely.

    Approaching 30 million (confirmed) cases and 1 million (confirmed) deaths, just after the US ticked over 200,000 fatalities.

    No segue, just noticed those milestones when glancing at the world meters tracker.

    First they came for the Muslims, and we said NOT TODAY, MOTHERFUCKER!
  • DevoutlyApatheticDevoutlyApathetic Registered User regular
    Re:1918 Flu

    Infectious diseases also have evolutionary pressure to NOT kill their hosts. They don't tend to get more deadly because the less deadly versions get spread further by their more healthy hosts than the ones that cause the infected to drop dead.

    Fencingsax
  • electricitylikesmeelectricitylikesme Registered User regular
    Re:1918 Flu

    Infectious diseases also have evolutionary pressure to NOT kill their hosts. They don't tend to get more deadly because the less deadly versions get spread further by their more healthy hosts than the ones that cause the infected to drop dead.

    Though keep in mind that just means extinction event level plagues aren't likely. It doesn't mean a virus cares in anyway that it might kill 1% of those it infects and leave 20% with life altering disabilities - the latter being one of the many things we don't know enough about COVID-19.

    ForarDevoutlyApatheticElldrenGnome-InterruptusFencingsaxGennenalyse RuebenElvenshae
  • Munkus BeaverMunkus Beaver Registered User, ClubPA regular
    Herd immunity is just the thing where the less than 1% of people who cannot be immunized from the pathogen are still protected from it because the other 99% are.

    To try and achieve that with COVID without a vaccine would be monstrous and would kinda defeat the point.

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  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    Paladin wrote: »
    Couscous wrote: »
    tbloxham wrote: »
    Couscous wrote: »
    Herd immunity does not happen without vaccines

    Herd immunity happens routinely all the time without vaccines for all sorts of viruses. It just doesn't mean what people use it to mean, nor does it happen for all viruses, and it doesn't have anything to say about limiting death and destruction from the virus. Nor does it mean the virus goes away always. It just means the virus is endemic rather than pandemic and spread will be slower and more constant rather than explosive.

    Society had herd immunity to polio before the vaccine. We gain herd immunity to the years specific influenza strain every year. Europeans had herd immunity to measles before the vaccine. There are hundreds of viruses in circulation right now to which we have herd immunity with no vaccine.
    Herd immunity requires a very high percentage of the population to be immune and has never happened without vaccines. Viruses waxing and waning is a thing, but that isn't herd immunity.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity
    With p being by itself on the left side of the equation, it can be renamed as pc, representing the critical proportion of the population needed to be immune to stop the transmission of disease, which is the same as the "herd immunity threshold" HIT.[9] R0 functions as a measure of contagiousness, so low R0 values are associated with lower HITs, whereas higher R0s result in higher HITs.[29][42] For example, the HIT for a disease with an R0 of 2 is theoretically only 50%, whereas a disease with an R0 of 10 the theoretical HIT is 90%.[29]

    When the effective reproduction number Re of a contagious disease is reduced to and sustained below 1 new individual per infection, the number of cases occurring in the population gradually decreases until the disease has been eliminated.[9][29][56] If a population is immune to a disease in excess of that disease's HIT, the number of cases reduces at a faster rate, outbreaks are even less likely to happen, and outbreaks that occur are smaller than they would be otherwise.[1][9] If the effective reproduction number increases to above 1, then the disease is neither in a steady state nor decreasing in incidence, but is actively spreading through the population and infecting a larger number of people than usual.[43][56]
    Getting to something like %50 of the population being immune and the disease no longer being endemic has not happened without vaccines from what I can remember.

    How close did we get with the 1918 flu

    We gained herd immunity to the 1918 flu. We gained herd immunity to the flu in say 2010. Couscous is completely wrong here with his definition of what herd immunity is and how it works. Humans had herd immunity to polio before the vaccine. We had herd immunity to measles. Last years flu? Herd immunity. The flu in 1865 before we had any idea vaccines for flu could be a thing? Herd immunity.

    Herd immunity means that sufficient people are immune such that the viral Rt fluctuates around 1 on a timescale which is specific to the virus with new cases either occurring as immunity fades or new children are born. With flu, the rate of mutation means that successor strains which cause resistance to the originator strain tend to push that specific years dominant strain into extinction

    It stops a disease being pandemic, and makes it endemic. In rare cases, the virus may become extinct in the community, this routinely happened with measles because measles is so infectious so quickly that it would massively overshoot it’s own herd immunity threshold while also causing long term immunity, which would lead to there being no cases by the time the next child was born. It may be the cases that many viruses through history have become extinct in humans due to herd immunity overshoot, but, it’s kinda hard to discover extinct viruses.

    To use a modern example, we have herd immunity to RSV with no vaccine. This does not mean that RSV is extinct, or that you can’t catch it. It means that a vast majority of people are currently either immune to RSV or will experience highly moderated symptoms And subsequent infectivity due to waning resistance from a prior infection. This level of herd immunity means that a majority of symptomatic and infectious cases occur amongst those who have no immunity (young children) and provides valuable protection to older Americans at high risk if they did catch the virus. It is a meaningful and important level of protection, and if, for example some novel RSV appeared to which we had no immunity things would be catastrophically worse.

    What is true to say is that no known endemic human virus has ever been driven to extinction without a vaccine. Although SARS was a pandemic virus which was, and we could do it for AIDS and some other viruses if we truly wanted to dedicate massive resources to it.

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  • Blackhawk1313Blackhawk1313 Registered User regular
    tbloxham wrote: »
    Paladin wrote: »
    Couscous wrote: »
    tbloxham wrote: »
    Couscous wrote: »
    Herd immunity does not happen without vaccines

    Herd immunity happens routinely all the time without vaccines for all sorts of viruses. It just doesn't mean what people use it to mean, nor does it happen for all viruses, and it doesn't have anything to say about limiting death and destruction from the virus. Nor does it mean the virus goes away always. It just means the virus is endemic rather than pandemic and spread will be slower and more constant rather than explosive.

    Society had herd immunity to polio before the vaccine. We gain herd immunity to the years specific influenza strain every year. Europeans had herd immunity to measles before the vaccine. There are hundreds of viruses in circulation right now to which we have herd immunity with no vaccine.
    Herd immunity requires a very high percentage of the population to be immune and has never happened without vaccines. Viruses waxing and waning is a thing, but that isn't herd immunity.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity
    With p being by itself on the left side of the equation, it can be renamed as pc, representing the critical proportion of the population needed to be immune to stop the transmission of disease, which is the same as the "herd immunity threshold" HIT.[9] R0 functions as a measure of contagiousness, so low R0 values are associated with lower HITs, whereas higher R0s result in higher HITs.[29][42] For example, the HIT for a disease with an R0 of 2 is theoretically only 50%, whereas a disease with an R0 of 10 the theoretical HIT is 90%.[29]

    When the effective reproduction number Re of a contagious disease is reduced to and sustained below 1 new individual per infection, the number of cases occurring in the population gradually decreases until the disease has been eliminated.[9][29][56] If a population is immune to a disease in excess of that disease's HIT, the number of cases reduces at a faster rate, outbreaks are even less likely to happen, and outbreaks that occur are smaller than they would be otherwise.[1][9] If the effective reproduction number increases to above 1, then the disease is neither in a steady state nor decreasing in incidence, but is actively spreading through the population and infecting a larger number of people than usual.[43][56]
    Getting to something like %50 of the population being immune and the disease no longer being endemic has not happened without vaccines from what I can remember.

    How close did we get with the 1918 flu

    We gained herd immunity to the 1918 flu. We gained herd immunity to the flu in say 2010. Couscous is completely wrong here with his definition of what herd immunity is and how it works. Humans had herd immunity to polio before the vaccine. We had herd immunity to measles. Last years flu? Herd immunity. The flu in 1865 before we had any idea vaccines for flu could be a thing? Herd immunity.

    Herd immunity means that sufficient people are immune such that the viral Rt fluctuates around 1 on a timescale which is specific to the virus with new cases either occurring as immunity fades or new children are born. With flu, the rate of mutation means that successor strains which cause resistance to the originator strain tend to push that specific years dominant strain into extinction

    It stops a disease being pandemic, and makes it endemic. In rare cases, the virus may become extinct in the community, this routinely happened with measles because measles is so infectious so quickly that it would massively overshoot it’s own herd immunity threshold while also causing long term immunity, which would lead to there being no cases by the time the next child was born. It may be the cases that many viruses through history have become extinct in humans due to herd immunity overshoot, but, it’s kinda hard to discover extinct viruses.

    To use a modern example, we have herd immunity to RSV with no vaccine. This does not mean that RSV is extinct, or that you can’t catch it. It means that a vast majority of people are currently either immune to RSV or will experience highly moderated symptoms And subsequent infectivity due to waning resistance from a prior infection. This level of herd immunity means that a majority of symptomatic and infectious cases occur amongst those who have no immunity (young children) and provides valuable protection to older Americans at high risk if they did catch the virus. It is a meaningful and important level of protection, and if, for example some novel RSV appeared to which we had no immunity things would be catastrophically worse.

    What is true to say is that no known endemic human virus has ever been driven to extinction without a vaccine. Although SARS was a pandemic virus which was, and we could do it for AIDS and some other viruses if we truly wanted to dedicate massive resources to it.

    This is a broken record at this point, but:
    Citation Needed.

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  • PaladinPaladin Registered User regular
    tbloxham wrote: »
    Paladin wrote: »
    Couscous wrote: »
    tbloxham wrote: »
    Couscous wrote: »
    Herd immunity does not happen without vaccines

    Herd immunity happens routinely all the time without vaccines for all sorts of viruses. It just doesn't mean what people use it to mean, nor does it happen for all viruses, and it doesn't have anything to say about limiting death and destruction from the virus. Nor does it mean the virus goes away always. It just means the virus is endemic rather than pandemic and spread will be slower and more constant rather than explosive.

    Society had herd immunity to polio before the vaccine. We gain herd immunity to the years specific influenza strain every year. Europeans had herd immunity to measles before the vaccine. There are hundreds of viruses in circulation right now to which we have herd immunity with no vaccine.
    Herd immunity requires a very high percentage of the population to be immune and has never happened without vaccines. Viruses waxing and waning is a thing, but that isn't herd immunity.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity
    With p being by itself on the left side of the equation, it can be renamed as pc, representing the critical proportion of the population needed to be immune to stop the transmission of disease, which is the same as the "herd immunity threshold" HIT.[9] R0 functions as a measure of contagiousness, so low R0 values are associated with lower HITs, whereas higher R0s result in higher HITs.[29][42] For example, the HIT for a disease with an R0 of 2 is theoretically only 50%, whereas a disease with an R0 of 10 the theoretical HIT is 90%.[29]

    When the effective reproduction number Re of a contagious disease is reduced to and sustained below 1 new individual per infection, the number of cases occurring in the population gradually decreases until the disease has been eliminated.[9][29][56] If a population is immune to a disease in excess of that disease's HIT, the number of cases reduces at a faster rate, outbreaks are even less likely to happen, and outbreaks that occur are smaller than they would be otherwise.[1][9] If the effective reproduction number increases to above 1, then the disease is neither in a steady state nor decreasing in incidence, but is actively spreading through the population and infecting a larger number of people than usual.[43][56]
    Getting to something like %50 of the population being immune and the disease no longer being endemic has not happened without vaccines from what I can remember.

    How close did we get with the 1918 flu

    We gained herd immunity to the 1918 flu. We gained herd immunity to the flu in say 2010. Couscous is completely wrong here with his definition of what herd immunity is and how it works. Humans had herd immunity to polio before the vaccine. We had herd immunity to measles. Last years flu? Herd immunity. The flu in 1865 before we had any idea vaccines for flu could be a thing? Herd immunity.

    Herd immunity means that sufficient people are immune such that the viral Rt fluctuates around 1 on a timescale which is specific to the virus with new cases either occurring as immunity fades or new children are born. With flu, the rate of mutation means that successor strains which cause resistance to the originator strain tend to push that specific years dominant strain into extinction

    It stops a disease being pandemic, and makes it endemic. In rare cases, the virus may become extinct in the community, this routinely happened with measles because measles is so infectious so quickly that it would massively overshoot it’s own herd immunity threshold while also causing long term immunity, which would lead to there being no cases by the time the next child was born. It may be the cases that many viruses through history have become extinct in humans due to herd immunity overshoot, but, it’s kinda hard to discover extinct viruses.

    To use a modern example, we have herd immunity to RSV with no vaccine. This does not mean that RSV is extinct, or that you can’t catch it. It means that a vast majority of people are currently either immune to RSV or will experience highly moderated symptoms And subsequent infectivity due to waning resistance from a prior infection. This level of herd immunity means that a majority of symptomatic and infectious cases occur amongst those who have no immunity (young children) and provides valuable protection to older Americans at high risk if they did catch the virus. It is a meaningful and important level of protection, and if, for example some novel RSV appeared to which we had no immunity things would be catastrophically worse.

    What is true to say is that no known endemic human virus has ever been driven to extinction without a vaccine. Although SARS was a pandemic virus which was, and we could do it for AIDS and some other viruses if we truly wanted to dedicate massive resources to it.

    This is a broken record at this point, but:
    Citation Needed.

    Like, to which part

    Marty: The future, it's where you're going?
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  • OrcaOrca Registered User regular
    Definition of herd immunity from wikipedia:
    a form of indirect protection from infectious disease that occurs when a sufficient percentage of a population has become immune to an infection, whether through vaccination or previous infections, thereby reducing the likelihood of infection for individuals who lack immunity.[1][2] Immune individuals are unlikely to contribute to disease transmission, disrupting chains of infection, which stops or slows the spread of disease.[3] The greater the proportion of immune individuals in a community, the smaller the probability that non-immune individuals will come into contact with an infectious individual.[1]

    Individuals can become immune by recovering from an earlier infection or through vaccination.[3] Some individuals cannot become immune because of medical conditions, such as an immunodeficiency or immunosuppression, and for this group herd immunity is a crucial method of protection.[4][5] Once the herd immunity threshold has been reached, disease gradually disappears from a population.[5] This elimination, if achieved worldwide, may result in the permanent reduction in the number of infections to zero, called eradication.[6] Herd immunity created via vaccination contributed to the eventual eradication of smallpox in 1977 and has contributed to the reduction of other diseases.[7] Herd immunity applies only to contagious disease, meaning that it is transmitted from one individual to another.[5] Tetanus, for example, is infectious but not contagious, so herd immunity does not apply.[4]

    Herd immunity was recognized as a naturally occurring phenomenon in the 1930s when it was observed that after a significant number of children had become immune to measles, the number of new infections temporarily decreased, including among the unvaccinated.[8] Mass vaccination to induce herd immunity has since become common and proved successful in preventing the spread of many infectious diseases.[9] Opposition to vaccination has posed a challenge to herd immunity, allowing preventable diseases to persist in or return to populations with inadequate vaccination rates.[10][11][12]

    Citation: 12 in the quote above.

    MMR immunization never hit 100%, and we've never hit eradication for e.g. measles, mumps and rubella, but we have hit herd immunity to them so even people that are vulnerable are (largely) protected by the immune population. (In the US measles has been declared eradicated).

  • MorganVMorganV Registered User regular
    Phew, that's a rough one.

    Uh, does Germany have a CDC analogue?
    Robert Koch Institute

    Gonna say, I had a mental shiver when I first read this.

    Those billionaire fuckers are running Germany's CDC analogue? We're fucked.

    Only took a couple moments to remember that Koch is a fairly common German/Germanic surname, and probably not related in any meaningful fashion.

    But given the fuckery that family (the US based one) has done, I definitely almost peed a little.

    JaysonFourGnome-InterruptusBullheadAbsoluteZeroCommander ZoomSpoitNobeardTicaldfjam
  • Blackhawk1313Blackhawk1313 Registered User regular
    Paladin wrote: »
    tbloxham wrote: »
    Paladin wrote: »
    Couscous wrote: »
    tbloxham wrote: »
    Couscous wrote: »
    Herd immunity does not happen without vaccines

    Herd immunity happens routinely all the time without vaccines for all sorts of viruses. It just doesn't mean what people use it to mean, nor does it happen for all viruses, and it doesn't have anything to say about limiting death and destruction from the virus. Nor does it mean the virus goes away always. It just means the virus is endemic rather than pandemic and spread will be slower and more constant rather than explosive.

    Society had herd immunity to polio before the vaccine. We gain herd immunity to the years specific influenza strain every year. Europeans had herd immunity to measles before the vaccine. There are hundreds of viruses in circulation right now to which we have herd immunity with no vaccine.
    Herd immunity requires a very high percentage of the population to be immune and has never happened without vaccines. Viruses waxing and waning is a thing, but that isn't herd immunity.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity
    With p being by itself on the left side of the equation, it can be renamed as pc, representing the critical proportion of the population needed to be immune to stop the transmission of disease, which is the same as the "herd immunity threshold" HIT.[9] R0 functions as a measure of contagiousness, so low R0 values are associated with lower HITs, whereas higher R0s result in higher HITs.[29][42] For example, the HIT for a disease with an R0 of 2 is theoretically only 50%, whereas a disease with an R0 of 10 the theoretical HIT is 90%.[29]

    When the effective reproduction number Re of a contagious disease is reduced to and sustained below 1 new individual per infection, the number of cases occurring in the population gradually decreases until the disease has been eliminated.[9][29][56] If a population is immune to a disease in excess of that disease's HIT, the number of cases reduces at a faster rate, outbreaks are even less likely to happen, and outbreaks that occur are smaller than they would be otherwise.[1][9] If the effective reproduction number increases to above 1, then the disease is neither in a steady state nor decreasing in incidence, but is actively spreading through the population and infecting a larger number of people than usual.[43][56]
    Getting to something like %50 of the population being immune and the disease no longer being endemic has not happened without vaccines from what I can remember.

    How close did we get with the 1918 flu

    We gained herd immunity to the 1918 flu. We gained herd immunity to the flu in say 2010. Couscous is completely wrong here with his definition of what herd immunity is and how it works. Humans had herd immunity to polio before the vaccine. We had herd immunity to measles. Last years flu? Herd immunity. The flu in 1865 before we had any idea vaccines for flu could be a thing? Herd immunity.

    Herd immunity means that sufficient people are immune such that the viral Rt fluctuates around 1 on a timescale which is specific to the virus with new cases either occurring as immunity fades or new children are born. With flu, the rate of mutation means that successor strains which cause resistance to the originator strain tend to push that specific years dominant strain into extinction

    It stops a disease being pandemic, and makes it endemic. In rare cases, the virus may become extinct in the community, this routinely happened with measles because measles is so infectious so quickly that it would massively overshoot it’s own herd immunity threshold while also causing long term immunity, which would lead to there being no cases by the time the next child was born. It may be the cases that many viruses through history have become extinct in humans due to herd immunity overshoot, but, it’s kinda hard to discover extinct viruses.

    To use a modern example, we have herd immunity to RSV with no vaccine. This does not mean that RSV is extinct, or that you can’t catch it. It means that a vast majority of people are currently either immune to RSV or will experience highly moderated symptoms And subsequent infectivity due to waning resistance from a prior infection. This level of herd immunity means that a majority of symptomatic and infectious cases occur amongst those who have no immunity (young children) and provides valuable protection to older Americans at high risk if they did catch the virus. It is a meaningful and important level of protection, and if, for example some novel RSV appeared to which we had no immunity things would be catastrophically worse.

    What is true to say is that no known endemic human virus has ever been driven to extinction without a vaccine. Although SARS was a pandemic virus which was, and we could do it for AIDS and some other viruses if we truly wanted to dedicate massive resources to it.

    This is a broken record at this point, but:
    Citation Needed.

    Like, to which part

    All of it but in particular the RSV reference, I am not aware of any herd immunity at all regarding it, vaccine develop continues on it but I’m not aware of one that’s been approved for use. And it is a common ailment issue for young children, and can be serious.

  • CouscousCouscous Registered User regular
    https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/52/7/911/299077
    The term “herd immunity” is widely used but carries a variety of meanings [1–7]. Some authors use it to describe the proportion immune among individuals in a population. Others use it with reference to a particular threshold proportion of immune individuals that should lead to a decline in incidence of infection. Still others use it to refer to a pattern of immunity that should protect a population from invasion of a new infection. A common implication of the term is that the risk of infection among susceptible individuals in a population is reduced by the presence and proximity of immune individuals (this is sometimes referred to as “indirect protection” or a “herd effect”). We provide brief historical, epidemiologic, theoretical, and pragmatic public health perspectives on this concept.
    https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/immunology-and-microbiology/herd-immunity
    Herd immunity refers to the fact that, once a pathogen-dependent proportion of group members is immunised through either natural infection or vaccination, the disease can no longer successfully transmit to new hosts and will eventually go locally extinct in a population, freeing the nonimmunised minority from the risk of infection.

    The way herd immunity is being used has been mostly in the context of the virus "going away." Given that, it is unlikely in coronavirus discussions to just be referring to a waning in the number of infections because so many people are immune.

    With polio, it was endemic and had occasional large outbreaks until the vaccine was introduced.

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  • MayabirdMayabird Pecking at the keyboardRegistered User regular
    Crossposting with the conspiracy theory thread: that latest claim going around that SARS2 was produced in a Chinese lab and had a "study" co-authored by a Chinese virologist to prove it? The claim was created and spread by two of Steve Bannon's organizations. Bannon's been pushing this for months, it seems. Right-wing outlets have been trying to make it an official conspiracy theory since February or so, and a lot of it seems to be because Bannon has a fuckton of shadow groups just lying around.

  • CorvusCorvus . VancouverRegistered User regular
    It's funny when we talked about the downfall of a superpower like the US, this is more or less exactly the type of thing which it referred to. No one is saying "what does the CDC say" anymore - everyone is waiting on the EU member states and EU's equivalent organization.

    That trust isn't going to be coming back soon. Possibly ever.

    100%. It will take generations for any kind of trust in America as an international leader to come back, if it ever does. Though really, we shouldn't have been trusting them much for a long time anyways.

    I feel like a similar path of international relevance to say, post WWII UK may be coming up.

    :so_raven:
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  • JaysonFourJaysonFour Classy Monster Kitteh Registered User regular
    We'll be lucky if we retain any kind of relevance in science or safety after all this. I mean, we've just shown that if it comes to it, we're willing to sacrifice our safety and integrity- and those of our governmental organizations meant to keep us safe- just so we can prop up whatever bullshit Trump says or try to make him look good. Safety in this administration comes second to whatever bullshit narrative Trump wants.

    steam_sig.png
    AbsoluteZeroSpoitElvenshae
  • Fuzzy Cumulonimbus CloudFuzzy Cumulonimbus Cloud Registered User regular
    MorganV wrote: »
    Phew, that's a rough one.

    Uh, does Germany have a CDC analogue?
    Robert Koch Institute

    Gonna say, I had a mental shiver when I first read this.

    Those billionaire fuckers are running Germany's CDC analogue? We're fucked.

    Only took a couple moments to remember that Koch is a fairly common German/Germanic surname, and probably not related in any meaningful fashion.

    But given the fuckery that family (the US based one) has done, I definitely almost peed a little.
    Its Robert Koch, one of the founders of bacteriology.

    no no no no noo no no no no no
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  • MazzyxMazzyx Comedy Gold Registered User regular
    JaysonFour wrote: »
    We'll be lucky if we retain any kind of relevance in science or safety after all this. I mean, we've just shown that if it comes to it, we're willing to sacrifice our safety and integrity- and those of our governmental organizations meant to keep us safe- just so we can prop up whatever bullshit Trump says or try to make him look good. Safety in this administration comes second to whatever bullshit narrative Trump wants.

    A return sane government and laws and removal of political appointees from a lot of these pipelines and let them stay civil servants with set goals.

    I am always shocked where we still put political appointees at time.

    03x29di.png
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  • MorganVMorganV Registered User regular
    Mazzyx wrote: »
    JaysonFour wrote: »
    We'll be lucky if we retain any kind of relevance in science or safety after all this. I mean, we've just shown that if it comes to it, we're willing to sacrifice our safety and integrity- and those of our governmental organizations meant to keep us safe- just so we can prop up whatever bullshit Trump says or try to make him look good. Safety in this administration comes second to whatever bullshit narrative Trump wants.

    A return sane government and laws and removal of political appointees from a lot of these pipelines and let them stay civil servants with set goals.

    I am always shocked where we still put political appointees at time.

    That won't be enough. While I hope Biden pulls off a win, despite the fuckery, the kind of repudiation that would be necessary to calm the rest of the world is essentially impossible.

    Because anything short of a 400+ EC win, and near 20% margin on the popular vote, means that in 4, 8, 12 years, a return of this kind of governance is possible, even likely.

    Donald Trump isn't THAT big an outlier on the right. He has his own unique qualities, but the traits that make him so dangerous aren't unique within the party. And it's not like the base of the party aren't dragging them to the right. Multiple QAnon dipshits are likely to be seated in Congress first week of January.

    So, the world has to hold their breath every election to wonder if it's a Democrat, a conservative they can deal with, or another knuckledragger demagogue and we're right back to square one. Perpetuating treaties are basically pointless. Anything signed having a "Break Glass In Case Of Fuckmuppet" clause is going to be problematic.

    But I agree, political appointees, especially those that aren't fucking qualified beyond that definition, need to go. But what's it matter if Trump, who's already got what, two illegally acting political appointments (one confirmed?) gets to do it, what's rule of law going to matter?

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  • PaladinPaladin Registered User regular
    America still has the advantage of being the broadest high quality educational system under one roof. China still needs more infrastructure and Europe is as good as it's going to get with its multinational limitations.

    Marty: The future, it's where you're going?
    Doc: That's right, twenty five years into the future. I've always dreamed on seeing the future, looking beyond my years, seeing the progress of mankind. I'll also be able to see who wins the next twenty-five world series.
  • CorvusCorvus . VancouverRegistered User regular
    Paladin wrote: »
    America still has the advantage of being the broadest high quality educational system under one roof. China still needs more infrastructure and Europe is as good as it's going to get with its multinational limitations.

    Oh sure, you guys have lots of universities and will remain economically powerful. But that's different than being respected, or seen as an international authority.

    And well, as for the US education system, I think the results of that system are telling in the nature of US politics and public discourse.

    :so_raven:
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  • ShivahnShivahn Unaware of her barrel shifter privilege Western coastal temptressRegistered User regular
    Corvus wrote: »
    Paladin wrote: »
    America still has the advantage of being the broadest high quality educational system under one roof. China still needs more infrastructure and Europe is as good as it's going to get with its multinational limitations.

    Oh sure, you guys have lots of universities and will remain economically powerful. But that's different than being respected, or seen as an international authority.

    And well, as for the US education system, I think the results of that system are telling in the nature of US politics and public discourse.

    People being educated doesn't mean they stop being people, though. American discourse is fucked because multiple media sources have developed in ways to exploit human behavior in order to further their own ends. Also, Americans largely don't go finish college, like 35% of Americans have college degrees. American education is actually really good, I think it's a mistake to pin America's problem to the educated populace being poorly educated instead of a combination of exceptionalistic myths and a variety of clever puppetmasters running media.

    OrcaPhoenix-DDoodmannFencingsaxCouscousBlackDragon480ElldrenGennenalyse RuebenFuzzy Cumulonimbus CloudGiantGeek2020kimeJaysonFourNobeardBurnageFremMrVyngaard
  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    edited September 16
    Mazzyx wrote: »
    JaysonFour wrote: »
    We'll be lucky if we retain any kind of relevance in science or safety after all this. I mean, we've just shown that if it comes to it, we're willing to sacrifice our safety and integrity- and those of our governmental organizations meant to keep us safe- just so we can prop up whatever bullshit Trump says or try to make him look good. Safety in this administration comes second to whatever bullshit narrative Trump wants.

    A return sane government and laws and removal of political appointees from a lot of these pipelines and let them stay civil servants with set goals.

    I am always shocked where we still put political appointees at time.

    Y'all have an insane number of politically appointed positions at all levels. Just nuts.

    But in general I would expect the CDC to be seen as trustworthy again once Trump is gone. Whether that continues the next time the GOP elects a Trump-like figure is another story.

    shryke on
    CorvusFencingsaxGnome-InterruptusMazzyxElldrenJaysonFourFrem
  • CorvusCorvus . VancouverRegistered User regular
    Shivahn wrote: »
    Corvus wrote: »
    Paladin wrote: »
    America still has the advantage of being the broadest high quality educational system under one roof. China still needs more infrastructure and Europe is as good as it's going to get with its multinational limitations.

    Oh sure, you guys have lots of universities and will remain economically powerful. But that's different than being respected, or seen as an international authority.

    And well, as for the US education system, I think the results of that system are telling in the nature of US politics and public discourse.

    People being educated doesn't mean they stop being people, though. American discourse is fucked because multiple media sources have developed in ways to exploit human behavior in order to further their own ends. Also, Americans largely don't go finish college, like 35% of Americans have college degrees. American education is actually really good, I think it's a mistake to pin America's problem to the educated populace being poorly educated instead of a combination of exceptionalistic myths and a variety of clever puppetmasters running media.

    The education system doesn't start at college.

    :so_raven:
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  • VeagleVeagle Registered User regular
    Couscous wrote: »
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/14/us/caputo-virus.html
    Michael Caputo, the assistant secretary of health for public affairs, told a Facebook audience without evidence that left-wing hit squads were being trained for insurrection, and he accused C.D.C. scientists of “sedition.”
    Mr. Caputo echoed those sentiments, saying scientists “deep in the bowels of the C.D.C. have given up science and become political animals.”

    They “haven’t gotten out of their sweatpants except for meetings at coffee shops” to plot “how they’re going to attack Donald Trump next,” Mr. Caputo said. “There are scientists who work for this government who do not want America to get well, not until after Joe Biden is president.”
    He accused officials at the C.D.C. and other government agencies — including the Department of Health and Human Services — of deliberately subverting the president’s efforts to contain the pandemic. The C.D.C., he said, was riddled with anti-Trump researchers who “walk around like they are monks” and “holy men” but engage in “rotten science.”

    But he singled out Dr. Robert Redfield, the director of the agency, for praise. He “is one of my closest friends in Washington,” he said. “He’s such a good man.”

    Former and current agency officials have asserted that Dr. Redfield has allowed so much political interference with the agency’s work that some career scientists are on the verge of resigning.
    Mr. Caputo’s scientific adviser, Dr. Paul Alexander, was heavily involved in the effort to reshape the C.D.C.’s weekly reports on morbidity and mortality. The reports are widely read by the nation’s health professionals, who depend upon them for medical guidance.

    Mr. Caputo acknowledged in a brief interview this weekend that it was unusual for a public affairs officer to hire his own scientific adviser. But he described Dr. Alexander, an assistant professor at McMaster University in Canada, as “a genius” to his Facebook audience, saying the public criticism had only served to make his position “permanent” as a watchdog over politically motivated scientists.

    “To allow people to die so that you can replace the president is a grievous venial sin, venial sin,” he said. “And these people are all going to hell.”
    Well, that is batshit projection by people who are harming coronavirus response efforts.

    I read deeper into the article and...
    Mr. Caputo on Sunday complained on Facebook that he was under siege by the media and said that his physical health was in question and his “mental health has definitely failed.”

    “I don’t like being alone in Washington,” he said, describing “shadows on the ceiling in my apartment, there alone, shadows are so long.” He then ran through a series of conspiracy theories, culminating in a prediction that Mr. Trump will win re-election but his Democratic opponent, Joseph R. Biden Jr., will refuse to concede.

    And when Donald Trump refuses to stand down at the inauguration, the shooting will begin,” he said. “The drills that you’ve seen are nothing.” He added: “If you carry guns, buy ammunition, ladies and gentlemen, because it’s going to be hard to get.

    This guys needs to be removed from his position ASAP. He is clearly unfit to serve.

    Thank Christ someone else felt this way, cause it looks like Caputo is out.



    JUST IN: HHS announces agency spokesman Michael Caputo "has decided to take a leave of absence to focus on his health and the well-being of his family." He'll be out for 60 days, an HHS statement says.

    MORE: Paul Alexander, described as a senior policy advisor to Caputo, will be "leaving the department," HHS says.

    Portnoy is a White House correspondent for CBS.

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  • CouscousCouscous Registered User regular
    edited September 16
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    Mass polio vaccination had begun in the USA in 1955 and it took the vaccine to stop polio outbreaks from coming and going over the years.

    Couscous on
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