Supreme Court Vacancy

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  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    Chanus wrote: »
    Chanus wrote: »
    you can't start crowing about court packing before the election when you're fighting an uphill battle to take back the Senate

    Ed Markey has nothing to worry about. swing state Dems don't have his sense of security

    You absolutely should. The GOP learned to politicize the SCOTUS to win votes a long time ago. The democrats need to start doing the same.

    Democrat enthusiasm isn't the problem. The people you're going to pull in with a strategy of radicalization are the people least likely to actually vote and a minority of your base

    Republicans being on the fence is the advantage right now. You don't give them a reason to get off the fence

    A supreme court seat was literally on the line last presidential election and democratic voters seemed to not give a shit. I don't see any evidence as of yet that anything has changed there.

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  • KanaKana Registered User regular
    Thought #1: nothing is more important than getting trump out, and trump trying to force through a quick radical nomination would be potentially bad for his reelection. On the other hand he's bullheaded and would view this as a chance for a visible win. On the third hand Trump gives no shits about conservatism or the Republican party, if he's voted out will he even give a shit about fighting for a last supreme court nominee? At any rate, a reliably conservative court would be bad, but not apocalyptic like a 2nd trump term.

    Thought #2: McConnell is up for reelection this year as well, where he's favored but not, afaik, running away with it. He's got to have an element of caution here as well, unlike in 2016.

    Thought #3: we're only 46 days out from the election. For Republican senators this is a high risk, high reward play. Sitting senators usually do their best to avoid those kinds of plays. Democrats immediately need to go on the offense and force Republicans up for election to publicly commit to not voting for not a new candidate until the new year. It would only take a couple of Republicans in close races to kill any lame duck appointment dead.

    Thought #4: Thank goodness trump is incompetent at least

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  • SchrodingerSchrodinger Registered User regular
    Chanus wrote: »
    Chanus wrote: »
    you can't start crowing about court packing before the election when you're fighting an uphill battle to take back the Senate

    Ed Markey has nothing to worry about. swing state Dems don't have his sense of security

    You absolutely should. The GOP learned to politicize the SCOTUS to win votes a long time ago. The democrats need to start doing the same.

    Democrat enthusiasm isn't the problem. The people you're going to pull in with a strategy of radicalization are the people least likely to actually vote and a minority of your base

    Republicans being on the fence is the advantage right now. You don't give them a reason to get off the fence

    There's no such thing as republicans "on the fence" right now. Either they're pro-Trump, or they aren't.

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  • MercadeMercade Registered User regular
    shryke wrote: »
    Also the most likely way this goes down imo is they ram it through after the election. There's risks in doing it before hand because it could fuck you over. After the election though, who cares? If Trump wins, it doesn't matter. If Biden wins, you steal the seat and entrench a huge conservative majority on the court. There's no reason for them not to do it.

    Trump wants something to tout in the final run-up to the election. This will happen fast. He'll demand it, and the ratfucks will obey.

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  • ChanusChanus I've seen things... Registered User regular
    Chanus wrote: »
    Chanus wrote: »
    you can't start crowing about court packing before the election when you're fighting an uphill battle to take back the Senate

    Ed Markey has nothing to worry about. swing state Dems don't have his sense of security

    You absolutely should. The GOP learned to politicize the SCOTUS to win votes a long time ago. The democrats need to start doing the same.

    Democrat enthusiasm isn't the problem. The people you're going to pull in with a strategy of radicalization are the people least likely to actually vote and a minority of your base

    Republicans being on the fence is the advantage right now. You don't give them a reason to get off the fence

    There's no such thing as republicans "on the fence" right now. Either they're pro-Trump, or they aren't.

    citation needed but this is getting outside the scope of the thread

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  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    edited September 19
    Mercade wrote: »
    shryke wrote: »
    Also the most likely way this goes down imo is they ram it through after the election. There's risks in doing it before hand because it could fuck you over. After the election though, who cares? If Trump wins, it doesn't matter. If Biden wins, you steal the seat and entrench a huge conservative majority on the court. There's no reason for them not to do it.

    Trump wants something to tout in the final run-up to the election. This will happen fast. He'll demand it, and the ratfucks will obey.

    Yeah, but Senators are already displaying cold feet about it. Probably enough that need to win in November to make it easier to delay the actual vote till after that. And "vote, a SCOTUS seat is on the line and look at this great justice I nominated" is a good thing to use to motivate the base.

    The timing is only vaguely relevant anyway though since I don't see them ever letting the session end without filling the seat.

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  • KanaKana Registered User regular
    Anyway the single best advice I can give right now is just treat yourself right and stay off of Twitter for a day or two.

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  • Undead ScottsmanUndead Scottsman Registered User regular
    Putting aside the possibility of flat out subverting democracy to ensure your power for as long as you live, if you're a Republican in danger of losing your seat, your options are

    1. To not aid Trump, MAYBE maintain your seat, and become one of the republicans that preventing the cementing of the supreme court for a generation. If you lose your seat anyway, kiss your conservative welfare goodbye.

    or

    2. Aid trump, cement the Supreme Court to your ideals for a generation, and win or lose, retire to the pundit circuit while the supreme court accomplishes more than you ever could.

    And of course this all gets thrown out after the election when they're no longer in danger of losing their seats.

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  • NobeardNobeard North Carolina: Failed StateRegistered User regular
    Kana wrote: »
    Thought #1: nothing is more important than getting trump out, and trump trying to force through a quick radical nomination would be potentially bad for his reelection. On the other hand he's bullheaded and would view this as a chance for a visible win. On the third hand Trump gives no shits about conservatism or the Republican party, if he's voted out will he even give a shit about fighting for a last supreme court nominee? At any rate, a reliably conservative court would be bad, but not apocalyptic like a 2nd trump term.

    Thought #2: McConnell is up for reelection this year as well, where he's favored but not, afaik, running away with it. He's got to have an element of caution here as well, unlike in 2016.

    Thought #3: we're only 46 days out from the election. For Republican senators this is a high risk, high reward play. Sitting senators usually do their best to avoid those kinds of plays. Democrats immediately need to go on the offense and force Republicans up for election to publicly commit to not voting for not a new candidate until the new year. It would only take a couple of Republicans in close races to kill any lame duck appointment dead.

    Thought #4: Thank goodness trump is incompetent at least

    I could be wrong about this but McConnell as Speaker confirming a Justice would be a boon for his reelection. Much of his home state popularity comes from simply being from Kentucky and wielding power. Not gonna go further into Kentucky politics because off topic obvs.

    I'm not saying we are going to have an autocratic dystopia, but things keep happening that look like they come from an autocratic dystopia.
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  • SchrodingerSchrodinger Registered User regular
    Nobeard wrote: »
    Kana wrote: »
    Thought #1: nothing is more important than getting trump out, and trump trying to force through a quick radical nomination would be potentially bad for his reelection. On the other hand he's bullheaded and would view this as a chance for a visible win. On the third hand Trump gives no shits about conservatism or the Republican party, if he's voted out will he even give a shit about fighting for a last supreme court nominee? At any rate, a reliably conservative court would be bad, but not apocalyptic like a 2nd trump term.

    Thought #2: McConnell is up for reelection this year as well, where he's favored but not, afaik, running away with it. He's got to have an element of caution here as well, unlike in 2016.

    Thought #3: we're only 46 days out from the election. For Republican senators this is a high risk, high reward play. Sitting senators usually do their best to avoid those kinds of plays. Democrats immediately need to go on the offense and force Republicans up for election to publicly commit to not voting for not a new candidate until the new year. It would only take a couple of Republicans in close races to kill any lame duck appointment dead.

    Thought #4: Thank goodness trump is incompetent at least

    I could be wrong about this but McConnell as Speaker confirming a Justice would be a boon for his reelection. Much of his home state popularity comes from simply being from Kentucky and wielding power. Not gonna go further into Kentucky politics because off topic obvs.

    He was already up 12 points, so none of that really matters.

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  • joshofalltradesjoshofalltrades Class Traitor Smoke-filled roomRegistered User regular
    Even if by some miracle they don’t fill the vacancy this year we should pack the court with tons of respected judges known for their brilliant jurisprudence anyway

    What are they going to do? Howl about the Biden administration’s overreach? I’m sure they weren’t going to do that anyway /s

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  • Dark_SideDark_Side Registered User regular
    edited September 19
    If it helps..the world is literally burning down around us and in 5 to 10 years the supreme court being packed with conservatives is hardly going to matter. I'm not trying to be complete doom and gloom...but frankly we have so many bigger looming problems facing us all I can do is respect Ginsburg's tenure and sit back and see what happens.

    Though I have to literally laugh at the insane about face the GOP is doing about no votes in an election year. The greedy fools are going to elect some far right turd when all they really need to do is nominate a center left judge and call it day.

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  • SchrodingerSchrodinger Registered User regular
    Even if by some miracle they don’t fill the vacancy this year we should pack the court with tons of respected judges known for their brilliant jurisprudence anyway

    What are they going to do? Howl about the Biden administration’s overreach? I’m sure they weren’t going to do that anyway /s

    They should, but announce it in advance so that republicans can't claim they weren't warned.

    Even if they can't manage to do it in 2020, they can try again in 2022.

  • A Kobold's KoboldA Kobold's Kobold He/Him MississippiRegistered User regular
    edited September 19
    Even if by some miracle they don’t fill the vacancy this year we should pack the court with tons of respected judges known for their brilliant jurisprudence anyway

    What are they going to do? Howl about the Biden administration’s overreach? I’m sure they weren’t going to do that anyway /s

    One of my problems with the way the court is set up is that it allows anybody to pack the court with as many members as they want, so there's nothing to stop a Republican prez/senate combo from just going 'no u' and filling the court with an ocean of hacks

    I'd want to see the way court appointments are handled (among other things) changed if there was a good roster of good judges on the bench in order to prevent this sort of one-upmanship

    edit: "my problem" -> "one of my problems"

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  • AbsoluteZeroAbsoluteZero The new film by Quentin Koopantino Registered User regular
    I am absolutely crushed by this. Can I wake up from this fucking nightmare now, please?

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  • NobeardNobeard North Carolina: Failed StateRegistered User regular
    Packing the court is ultimately a way to confront and (hopefully) deal with the issues with the SCOTUS. It is a means, not an end.

    I'm not saying we are going to have an autocratic dystopia, but things keep happening that look like they come from an autocratic dystopia.
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  • Phoenix-DPhoenix-D Registered User regular
    Even if by some miracle they don’t fill the vacancy this year we should pack the court with tons of respected judges known for their brilliant jurisprudence anyway

    What are they going to do? Howl about the Biden administration’s overreach? I’m sure they weren’t going to do that anyway /s

    One of my problems with the way the court is set up is that it allows anybody to pack the court with as many members as they want, so there's nothing to stop a Republican prez/senate combo from just going 'no u' and filling the court with an ocean of hacks

    I'd want to see the way court appointments are handled (among other things) changed if there was a good roster of good judges on the bench in order to prevent this sort of one-upmanship

    edit: "my problem" -> "one of my problems"

    Nothing stopping them from doing that even if we don't, so.

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  • TetraNitroCubaneTetraNitroCubane The Djinnerator At the bottom of a bottleRegistered User regular
    edited September 19
    Phoenix-D wrote: »
    Even if by some miracle they don’t fill the vacancy this year we should pack the court with tons of respected judges known for their brilliant jurisprudence anyway

    What are they going to do? Howl about the Biden administration’s overreach? I’m sure they weren’t going to do that anyway /s

    One of my problems with the way the court is set up is that it allows anybody to pack the court with as many members as they want, so there's nothing to stop a Republican prez/senate combo from just going 'no u' and filling the court with an ocean of hacks

    I'd want to see the way court appointments are handled (among other things) changed if there was a good roster of good judges on the bench in order to prevent this sort of one-upmanship

    edit: "my problem" -> "one of my problems"

    Nothing stopping them from doing that even if we don't, so.

    There's zero reason for the GOP to pack the courts if they already have a majority, and the dems don't do anything.

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  • So It GoesSo It Goes We keep moving...Registered User regular
    We can't even take a minute to breathe out a cry of grief for the loss of a remarkable woman who lead the charge for gender equality in our country and staunchly protected women's bodily autonomy.

    On her deathbed she told her grandaughter to write down that she didn't want to be replaced before the election.

    On her deathbed she had to make sure to make a political communication in the direst of hopes that her legacy would not be quickly dismantled by chortling rich men itching to undo her life's work.

    I choose now to honor her by fighting even harder for the incremental, by-the-fingernails, grasping and clawing through unfair barriers type of change that she advocated for.

    And tonight it's okay to mourn and cry and be sad. Someone great has died today. May her legacy be a bright star in the constellation of hard-won forward progress for the nation she loved.

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  • MillMill Registered User regular
    Packing the court would force the rat fucker republican opinions out. Then you can go about murdering things like Citizens United, the "partisan gerrymanders are A-OK" and other rubbish that is there to help the GOP rig elections. Take that shit away and you might be able to fix the system.

    Given that Trump is dumb and McConnell is a chicken shit. I wouldn't be surprised to see an attempt to fill the seat ASAP. Problem both fuckers will run into is that there are enough republicans in close races or races that aren't safe enough. That they really risk upsetting people. I'm pretty sure democrats are already trotting out the GOP's bullshit play from 2016. Getting a another shithead Trump appointee on there won't do them any good if that is what costs them the Senate and the democrats turn around, point out they can change the numbers on the court and proceed to let Biden fill those seats in.

    I'm a bit amazed that McConnell didn't shoot the idea of filling the seat in before inauguration. It shows just how fucking stupid and out of touch he really is. Sure Trump will throw a hissy fit, but it won't cost McConnell re-election it appears. It won't put the Senate at further risk, let's not assume that everyone non-republican voter is going to be A-OK with the GOP playing the game of "only dummycrats don't get to fill in SCOTUS seats right before an election." It doesn't risk pissing the democrats off to the point where they do decide to stack the court. Worst case is Trump throws a shit fit and loses. If he wins he gets to fill the seat. If he loses, sure the democrats may fill it but there is still a conservative majority and if they don't piss off the democrats, enough of them will still try to play the broken rules that have allowed that, instead of packing the court. If Trump loses and the GOP retains the the Senate, they probably force a moderate in.

    Really the smart play would be we aren't going to do anything with the seat until next Congress. Packing it now only marginally benefits them if they don't lose, but probably sours people further on the GOP brand; especially, if the now more conservative court spews out even shittier decisions that no one outside the shithead fringe right likes.

  • Jealous DevaJealous Deva Registered User regular
    Honestly if Trump was smart he would put out that he was not going to nominate a justice unless he won.

    That way the consevatives would be held hostage for him to win, it would look good for swing voters, and he could always just go back on it if he lost, assuming he actually gave a shit at that point.

    I don’t know if he’s really smart enough to figure that out though.

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  • SchrodingerSchrodinger Registered User regular
    Honestly if Trump was smart he would put out that he was not going to nominate a justice unless he won.

    That way the consevatives would be held hostage for him to win, it would look good for swing voters, and he could always just go back on it if he lost, assuming he actually gave a shit at that point.

    I don’t know if he’s really smart enough to figure that out though.

    He can just insist that we can't afford to wait because time is of the essence, which is exactly what they claimed when Kavanaugh was being nominated.

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  • Local H JayLocal H Jay Registered User regular
    It makes me stewing mad that McConnell gets to have his cake and eat it too. Like fuck off for blocking Obama's appointment and then gleefully breaking with your own precedent. I'm so sick of these assholes working outside the law because of norms and precedent which apparently counts for fuck all. RBG is a God damned hero and left the world a better place, it makes me sick that people are salivating over her spot for petty politics, and trying to milk the last gas out of the Trump tank as they limp to the election.

    Blahhhh

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  • ZibblsnrtZibblsnrt Registered User regular
    It makes me stewing mad that McConnell gets to have his cake and eat it too. Like fuck off for blocking Obama's appointment and then gleefully breaking with your own precedent. I'm so sick of these assholes working outside the law because of norms and precedent which apparently counts for fuck all. RBG is a God damned hero and left the world a better place, it makes me sick that people are salivating over her spot for petty politics, and trying to milk the last gas out of the Trump tank as they limp to the election.

    Blahhhh

    I'm almost in awe that he handled the "precedent" thing by putting out a statement that straight up invoked IOKIYAR as justification.

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  • TetraNitroCubaneTetraNitroCubane The Djinnerator At the bottom of a bottleRegistered User regular
    edited September 19
    Zibblsnrt wrote: »
    It makes me stewing mad that McConnell gets to have his cake and eat it too. Like fuck off for blocking Obama's appointment and then gleefully breaking with your own precedent. I'm so sick of these assholes working outside the law because of norms and precedent which apparently counts for fuck all. RBG is a God damned hero and left the world a better place, it makes me sick that people are salivating over her spot for petty politics, and trying to milk the last gas out of the Trump tank as they limp to the election.

    Blahhhh

    I'm almost in awe that he handled the "precedent" thing by putting out a statement that straight up invoked IOKIYAR as justification.

    He's been extremely public about this for almost a year now.
    Speaking at a Paducah Chamber of Commerce luncheon in Kentucky, McConnell was asked by an attendee, "Should a Supreme Court justice die next year, what will your position be on filling that spot?"

    The leader took a long sip of what appeared to be iced tea before announcing with a smile, "Oh, we'd fill it," triggering loud laughter from the audience.

    Mitch McConnell doesn't care that you know he's a hypocrite.
    The smirk on his face when he says that he would fill a vacant seat on the Supreme Court if one opened up in 2020 tells you all you need to know. He is very well aware of the fact that he is a hypocrite and doesn’t give a damn that you know it too.

    That is because, unlike a lot of liberals, McConnell has a theory of change—which he explains in the remainder of the video. As we’ve seen with what Trump is attempting to do to Obama’s legacy, both legislation and executive actions can be undone in one election. But judges are given lifetime appointments. So McConnell isn’t interested in passing legislation (except to secure tax cuts for the wealthy and corporations), but has spent the majority of the Senate’s time over the last three years stacking the courts with conservatives, something he calls his most consequential political accomplishment.

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  • IlpalaIlpala Just this guy, y'know Texas booniesRegistered User regular
    Any lame duck appointment should be treated as a hostile act against the voting public and, in addition to the expansion of the court, be impeached on that basis.

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  • SchrodingerSchrodinger Registered User regular
    Yeah, any attempt to try to shame or embarass McConnel isn't going to work. People need to stop doing that.

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  • Phoenix-DPhoenix-D Registered User regular
    Yeah, any attempt to try to shame or embarass McConnel isn't going to work. People need to stop doing that.

    I'll make fun of McConnell's complete lack of standards all I want, thanks.

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  • AbsalonAbsalon Registered User regular
    New York Magazine/HuffPost Contributor

    You can likely add Romney to this. Question is if they all can be trusted.

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  • ArcTangentArcTangent Registered User regular
    edited September 19
    Romney's comms director immediately pushes back against people saying he does NOT support a new appointment.


    "BREAKING: A high-level Romney insider tells me Mitt Romney has committed to not confirming a Supreme Court nominee until after Inauguration Day 2021. "

    This is grossly false. #fakenews

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  • Phoenix-DPhoenix-D Registered User regular
    They can be trusted after Biden is inaugurated.

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  • durandal4532durandal4532 Registered User regular
    edited September 19
    I donated a shitload of money to Biden and to the Get Mitch or Die Trying fund because I'm sad.

    This sucks enormously, but I expected it and there's nothing new for me to do. Court reform was always in the cards if we want a court that's anything but an enormous drag on our democracy. The existing 5-4 court was always going to side with Trump if the election came down to a court challenge.

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  • DisrupterDisrupter Registered User regular
    The only hope is to get 4 to commit to not doing it before the election

    Then to have 3 of them committed to through the lame duck and the Arizona seat gets flipped

  • Dongs GaloreDongs Galore Registered User regular
    well now we're pretty much on track for a constitutional crisis

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  • TetraNitroCubaneTetraNitroCubane The Djinnerator At the bottom of a bottleRegistered User regular
    edited September 19
    .
    ArcTangent wrote: »
    Romney's comms director immediately pushes back against people saying he does NOT support a new appointment.


    "BREAKING: A high-level Romney insider tells me Mitt Romney has committed to not confirming a Supreme Court nominee until after Inauguration Day 2021. "

    This is grossly false. #fakenews

    That's extremely awful. Particularly the choice of hashtag, which almost signals a type of Trump loyalism.

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  • TaximesTaximes Registered User regular
    edited September 19
    Absalon wrote: »
    New York Magazine/HuffPost Contributor

    You can likely add Romney to this. Question is if they all can be trusted.

    I saw a headline like this claiming Grassley (plus Murkowski, Collins, and Graham) said they wouldn't push through a nominee, but upon reading the article they were referring to old quotes (Grassley in July, and Graham two years ago). Biiiiiig fucking difference when the seat is actually on the line.

    I'm hoping this tweet is referring to recent statements by those three? IMO no one's statements on the issue really matter unless they were made today, and even then I'm not going to hold my breath.

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  • DacDac Registered User regular
    well now we're pretty much on track for a constitutional crisis

    Not really. It won't be unconstitutional.

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  • kimekime Queen of Blades Registered User regular
    Dac wrote: »
    well now we're pretty much on track for a constitutional crisis

    Not really. It won't be unconstitutional.

    The SCOTUS constitutional crisis happened already back in 2016 after Scalia's death.

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  • Raiden333Raiden333 Registered User regular
    Is it just me that has some sort of visual filter that is processing all these reports of GOP senator pledges as "scorpion pledges not to sting frog while crossing river"?

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  • TetraNitroCubaneTetraNitroCubane The Djinnerator At the bottom of a bottleRegistered User regular

    I reported back in May 2019 that during his deliberations over the Kennedy vacancy, President Trump told confidants he was "I'm saving her [Amy Coney Barrett] for Ginsburg." She remains the overwhelming favorite in Trump's inner circle.

    Jonathan Swan is a reporter with Axios

    Looks like we're doomed to get Scalia's successor. Fucking great.

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