I suppose you might have to factor in the guaranteed pulls on the character banner, though. Like if you want Diluc right now, but get Keqing, then your next 5* is guaranteed to be Ganyu. You don't run that "risk" on the standard banner.

It doesn't have to be said, but definitely don't roll on the character banner if you are currently guaranteed to get a character who you don't want.

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MaddocI'm Bobbin Threadbare, are you my mother?Registered Userregular

Anyway the permanent banner essentially exists as a place where Mihoyo can regularly give you free pulls without allowing you to save for new characters, just do pulls as you acquire Acquaint Fates for free (and from the monthly shop reset), and enjoy your free 5* every once in awhile

So I went over to r/HuTaoMains to see the reaction and unsurprisingly they seem pretty distraught. However, a couple of interesting tidbits that I hadn't noticed before:

Xiao banner is only 2 weeks compared to the standard up until now has been 3 weeks. No word on how long Keqing banner would be, but in theory they could do three 2 week banners in the normal 6 week update cycle, so maybe Hu Tao is coming sooner than we might have otherwise thought.

There is apparently a shot of Xiangling holding the Staff of Homa in the 1.3 trailer, which suggests that maybe it will come on the weapon banner in 1.3 sometime. Maybe in parallel to Keqing banner, but also maybe in line with the idea that Hu Tao is coming as a shorter banner right after Keqing.

I suppose you might have to factor in the guaranteed pulls on the character banner, though. Like if you want Diluc right now, but get Keqing, then your next 5* is guaranteed to be Ganyu. You don't run that "risk" on the standard banner.

It doesn't have to be said, but definitely don't roll on the character banner if you are currently guaranteed to get a character who you don't want.

Yeah, I was thinking about doing this but wanted to keep it simple. To be completely fair, we should do the comparison over two 5* pities to account for that.

Diluc (event banner) = ((50% * 20%) + (0)) / 2 = 5% chance of getting Diluc in 2 pities

Diluc (permanent banner) = (( 1/15 ) + (1 / 15)) / 2 = 7% chance of getting at least one Diluc in 2 pities

So your first pull on the event banner is better odds, but long term the permanent banner is actually the better way to go.

Edit:
Actually, what this says is that the best strategy if you really want Diluc is to pull on the character banner until you get a non-banner 5*, then switch to the permanent banner (assuming your non-banner was not Diluc).

I suppose you might have to factor in the guaranteed pulls on the character banner, though. Like if you want Diluc right now, but get Keqing, then your next 5* is guaranteed to be Ganyu. You don't run that "risk" on the standard banner.

It doesn't have to be said, but definitely don't roll on the character banner if you are currently guaranteed to get a character who you don't want.

Yeah, I was thinking about doing this but wanted to keep it simple. To be completely fair, we should do the comparison over two 5* pities to account for that.

Diluc (event banner) = ((50% * 20%) + (0)) / 2 = 5% chance of getting Diluc in 2 pities

Diluc (permanent banner) = (( 1/15 ) + (1 / 15)) / 2 = 7% chance of getting at least one Diluc in 2 pities

So your first pull on the event banner is better odds, but long term the permanent banner is actually the better way to go.

From a reddit thread on the odds of getting Keqing (used as an example)

Standard Banner: if you get a five-star pull, the game flips a coin as to whether you get a character or weapon. Therefore the actual chance to get a five-star character for one single pull is 0.3%, or 3 times out of 1000. Then we have five choices (Jean, Diluc, Qiqi, Mona, and Keqing). This brings the chance of getting specifically Keqing down to 3 times out of 5000, or 0.0006. This is 0.06%, which is ten times less likely than MiHoYo’s posted chance of getting any five-star. This probability will only go down as more five-star characters are added to the standard banner.

Character Banner: if you get a five-star character, the game flips a coin as to whether you get the banner character or a five-star character. Therefore the actual chance of a non-banner five-star is 0.3%, or 3 times out of 1000. Then we have six choices (Klee, Jean, Diluc, Qiqi, Mona, and Keqing). This brings the chance of getting specifically Keqing down to 1 time out of 2000, or 0.0005. This is 0.05%, which is less likely than the standard banner. We therefore ignore the character banner when considering getting Keqing, as it is strictly worse. (Note: As noted later, there is some uncertainty in whether Klee is counted twice like this, but the special banner is at best identical to the standard banner for getting a non-banner five-star.)

I suppose you might have to factor in the guaranteed pulls on the character banner, though. Like if you want Diluc right now, but get Keqing, then your next 5* is guaranteed to be Ganyu. You don't run that "risk" on the standard banner.

It doesn't have to be said, but definitely don't roll on the character banner if you are currently guaranteed to get a character who you don't want.

Yeah, I was thinking about doing this but wanted to keep it simple. To be completely fair, we should do the comparison over two 5* pities to account for that.

Diluc (event banner) = ((50% * 20%) + (0)) / 2 = 5% chance of getting Diluc in 2 pities

Diluc (permanent banner) = (( 1/15 ) + (1 / 15)) / 2 = 7% chance of getting at least one Diluc in 2 pities

So your first pull on the event banner is better odds, but long term the permanent banner is actually the better way to go.

From a reddit thread on the odds of getting Keqing (used as an example)

Standard Banner: if you get a five-star pull, the game flips a coin as to whether you get a character or weapon. Therefore the actual chance to get a five-star character for one single pull is 0.3%, or 3 times out of 1000. Then we have five choices (Jean, Diluc, Qiqi, Mona, and Keqing). This brings the chance of getting specifically Keqing down to 3 times out of 5000, or 0.0006. This is 0.06%, which is ten times less likely than MiHoYo’s posted chance of getting any five-star. This probability will only go down as more five-star characters are added to the standard banner.

Character Banner: if you get a five-star character, the game flips a coin as to whether you get the banner character or a five-star character. Therefore the actual chance of a non-banner five-star is 0.3%, or 3 times out of 1000. Then we have six choices (Klee, Jean, Diluc, Qiqi, Mona, and Keqing). This brings the chance of getting specifically Keqing down to 1 time out of 2000, or 0.0005. This is 0.05%, which is less likely than the standard banner. We therefore ignore the character banner when considering getting Keqing, as it is strictly worse. (Note: As noted later, there is some uncertainty in whether Klee is counted twice like this, but the special banner is at best identical to the standard banner for getting a non-banner five-star.)

Hm, not sure I agree with their statistics (although the wording is pretty imprecise so I'm not sure exactly what they are calculating), and I don't think its accurate to say the character banner has six choices. However, the first part is interesting and would change my math if true. Specifically if it is indeed a 50/50 roll on weapon vs character, and then a second roll within the category, rather than just a straight 1/15 chance of the character roll that would right away put the odds of Diluc back at 10% instead of 7%. I wonder if anyone has actually crunched the numbers on a large enough number of pulls to see that difference.

I suppose you might have to factor in the guaranteed pulls on the character banner, though. Like if you want Diluc right now, but get Keqing, then your next 5* is guaranteed to be Ganyu. You don't run that "risk" on the standard banner.

It doesn't have to be said, but definitely don't roll on the character banner if you are currently guaranteed to get a character who you don't want.

Yeah, I was thinking about doing this but wanted to keep it simple. To be completely fair, we should do the comparison over two 5* pities to account for that.

Diluc (event banner) = ((50% * 20%) + (0)) / 2 = 5% chance of getting Diluc in 2 pities

Diluc (permanent banner) = (( 1/15 ) + (1 / 15)) / 2 = 7% chance of getting at least one Diluc in 2 pities

So your first pull on the event banner is better odds, but long term the permanent banner is actually the better way to go.

From a reddit thread on the odds of getting Keqing (used as an example)

Standard Banner: if you get a five-star pull, the game flips a coin as to whether you get a character or weapon. Therefore the actual chance to get a five-star character for one single pull is 0.3%, or 3 times out of 1000. Then we have five choices (Jean, Diluc, Qiqi, Mona, and Keqing). This brings the chance of getting specifically Keqing down to 3 times out of 5000, or 0.0006. This is 0.06%, which is ten times less likely than MiHoYo’s posted chance of getting any five-star. This probability will only go down as more five-star characters are added to the standard banner.

Character Banner: if you get a five-star character, the game flips a coin as to whether you get the banner character or a five-star character. Therefore the actual chance of a non-banner five-star is 0.3%, or 3 times out of 1000. Then we have six choices (Klee, Jean, Diluc, Qiqi, Mona, and Keqing). This brings the chance of getting specifically Keqing down to 1 time out of 2000, or 0.0005. This is 0.05%, which is less likely than the standard banner. We therefore ignore the character banner when considering getting Keqing, as it is strictly worse. (Note: As noted later, there is some uncertainty in whether Klee is counted twice like this, but the special banner is at best identical to the standard banner for getting a non-banner five-star.)

Hm, not sure I agree with their statistics (although the wording is pretty imprecise so I'm not sure exactly what they are calculating), and I don't think its accurate to say the character banner has six choices. However, the first part is interesting and would change my math if true. Specifically if it is indeed a 50/50 roll on weapon vs character, and then a second roll within the category, rather than just a straight 1/15 chance of the character roll that would right away put the odds of Diluc back at 10% instead of 7%. I wonder if anyone has actually crunched the numbers on a large enough number of pulls to see that difference.

Any time I see people talking about the math for Standard pulls its with that coin flip assumption, so I'd assume someone crunched data and confirmed it, but I'll admit I'm not certain.

edit: Oh, and they're talking about the baseline 0.6% chance of pulling a 5-star before any sort of pity mechanics kick in.

## Posts

It doesn't have to be said, but definitely don't roll on the character banner if you are currently guaranteed to get a character who you don't want.

Primogems go to event banners

Xiao banner is only 2 weeks compared to the standard up until now has been 3 weeks. No word on how long Keqing banner would be, but in theory they could do three 2 week banners in the normal 6 week update cycle, so maybe Hu Tao is coming sooner than we might have otherwise thought.

There is apparently a shot of Xiangling holding the Staff of Homa in the 1.3 trailer, which suggests that maybe it will come on the weapon banner in 1.3 sometime. Maybe in parallel to Keqing banner, but also maybe in line with the idea that Hu Tao is coming as a shorter banner right after Keqing.

Well, I have Keqing, or I'd have gone for her.

This post was sponsored by Tom Cruise.Yeah, I was thinking about doing this but wanted to keep it simple. To be completely fair, we should do the comparison over two 5* pities to account for that.

Diluc (chance) = ((chance 5* 1) + (chance 5* 2)) / 2 pities

Diluc (event banner) = ((50% * 20%) + (0)) / 2 = 5% chance of getting Diluc in 2 pities

Diluc (permanent banner) = (( 1/15 ) + (1 / 15)) / 2 = 7% chance of getting at least one Diluc in 2 pities

So your first pull on the event banner is better odds, but long term the permanent banner is actually the better way to go.

Edit:

Actually, what this says is that the best strategy if you really want Diluc is to pull on the character banner until you get a non-banner 5*, then switch to the permanent banner (assuming your non-banner was not Diluc).

eMoanderonFrom a reddit thread on the odds of getting Keqing (used as an example)

Hm, not sure I agree with their statistics (although the wording is pretty imprecise so I'm not sure exactly what they are calculating), and I don't think its accurate to say the character banner has six choices. However, the first part is interesting and would change my math if true. Specifically if it is indeed a 50/50 roll on weapon vs character, and then a second roll within the category, rather than just a straight 1/15 chance of the character roll that would right away put the odds of Diluc back at 10% instead of 7%. I wonder if anyone has actually crunched the numbers on a large enough number of pulls to see that difference.

Any time I see people talking about the math for Standard pulls its with that coin flip assumption, so I'd assume someone crunched data and confirmed it, but I'll admit I'm not certain.

edit: Oh, and they're talking about the baseline 0.6% chance of pulling a 5-star before any sort of pity mechanics kick in.

Kamaron