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[2020 Election] Subtle Does Not Go Here

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  • ArcTangentArcTangent Registered User regular
    (Obama sinking a 3)



    I miss this man, so much.

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  • ElJeffeElJeffe Moderator, ClubPA mod
    ElJeffe wrote: »
    Just a reminder that the proper way to handle a poll, any poll, is to throw it onto the pile with all the other polls. Even the best pollsters have outliers - at the same rate as any other pollster, because outliers are literally impossible to avoid - and it's the fact that they post them that MAKES them the best pollsters.

    Pennsylvania is tightening, but we have like six plausible paths to 270 right now. It's not in the bag, but we're heavily favored, and we just need to keep doing what we're doing for three more days.

    (And then keep doing a fuckton more, because our shit be broken, but first things first.)

    I think there is no actual evidence for Pennsylvania tightening in a meaningful sense.

    I'm just going by the 538 polling average, which went from closer to 7 points to right around 5. It could just be a bunch of garbage polls at the 11th hour, but I'm trying not to inflate expectations too much.

    We're still in a good place there.

    Maddie: "I named my feet. The left one is flip and the right one is flop. Oh, and also I named my flip-flops."

    I make tweet.
  • MillMill Registered User regular
    For people panicking over polls. They are an imperfect science and unless they all consistently go in one direction. Chances are pretty good that we might just be seeing one or two outliers because even the good firms make mistakes. Also again, worth considering that this isn't the typical election and depending on how these polls are conducted that could create an interesting polling. Finally, as Bum pointed out, if by some happenstance the polls are off the way they were in 2016, they'd have be way more off than that year to help dig Trump out of his current hole. So breath in and relax.

    BTW if you haven't voted, for the love god do not use the current state of things to justify staying out home. Hell, even if it's confirmed that X will win the Presidency, which it isn't. You still have other items on your ballot that need votes. The only election I share with Texans, Californians and every other state, along with DC, is the presidential race. I don't share their Senate race, should they have one. I don't share any state or local races they have. Hell, even in my state, I don't share the same representative of the house with all the members on here that live in Virginia because the state has more than one. Only person that can guarantee at least one vote for the good guys in the races you can vote in, is you. In a case where your guy has it in the bag, well you need to vote in those other races and your there, so give your guy one more vote whether he needs it or not. Politics isn't a sport, so there is no bad sportsmanship in running up the score.

    All that out of the way. My theory on things we'll see if the polls are off.
    -They likely might have underestimated youth turn out.
    -They likely might have underestimated minority turn out.
    -Late polls might end up being off if the people running them didn't do a good job to account for the level of early voting. if your poll is discounting people that already voted, that might be self-selecting for Trump voters that haven't voted. This is further compounded by the fact that people who have already voted, might just hang up once they realize it's a polling outfit.

    I don't think they'll have underestimated no college educated white men, like they did last time. Also not sure they'll end up overestimating them either. 2018 saw an uptick in that crowd, unless someone compares this year to 2018, that leaves open the possibility that Trump will beat his numbers four years ago in a way that can't be contributed solely to normal population fluctuations. Also I'm pretty sure most non-voters that were activated in 2018, probably aren't going to go back to state anytime soon. Midterms don't get touted the way that the presidential election do, so if someone can bother for them, they'll probably be dead set for presidential year elections,

    BurnageHandsome CostanzaMartini_PhilosopherSpoit
  • MorganVMorganV Registered User regular
    My ballot was accepted as returned in DE on 24 September.

    I am so very ready to have this over with. I've been waiting forever it feels like.

    As am I. Due to the weirdness of my current roster, I finish work on Monday, and get three days off.

    I kinda wish I was working, because then I wouldn't be able to keep up with the deluge of shit that's going to be election coverage, especially as this is going to draw out.

    I mean, I could just choose to be online for three days, but I know I won't have the will to not do that.

  • chrisnlchrisnl Registered User regular
    This is going to be one hell of a week coming up. There is just so much here that is unprecedented, this election could almost be considered an out of context problem for pollsters. Never in our history have so many people voted early, and we have no idea what the actual election day turnout is going to be like. I would very much like this election to be definitely settled before like 2 AM Eastern, but that's a pipe dream. I know I'm going to be a bundle of nerves for at least the next three to four days, and I'm sure many others are as well. I voted weeks ago, so at least I know that is taken care of, but I still worry (my state is almost certainly going to Biden, but I am horribly disappointed that the Republican House Rep had no opponent).

    I was cautiously optimistic last time, and got burned for it, so now even though the polling is unambiguously better I am cautiously pessimistic. Mostly I am dreading watching the early returns, because it seems pretty likely that the early results will lean heavily towards the side of evil (at least in places like Pennsylvania where they can't start counting early votes until after polls close, or even the next morning which is just going to confuse everything). Hopefully the networks are cautious about calling races simply due to the potentially huge disparity between early/absentee votes and day of votes, but considering recent history I'm not counting on it.

    It does bring up the possibility of Biden being able to victoriously hold up the NY Post with the headline, "Trump defeats Biden!" like the classic Truman picture which would be kind of fun.

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  • Tyrant526Tyrant526 Registered User regular
    For anyone wondering how things are looking for Collins here in ME, two of her most played ads at this point are literally an old white man saying 'vote for Susan, she doesn't hate dogs' and an ad that talks about voting for her cause shes from 'the county' (aroostook county) and you should ignore her party. I know many people on both sides of the aisle who hate her, she tried to play all sides and instead just pissed everybody off. So thats a positive i see every day.

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  • TaramoorTaramoor Storyteller Registered User regular
    Tyrant526 wrote: »
    For anyone wondering how things are looking for Collins here in ME, two of her most played ads at this point are literally an old white man saying 'vote for Susan, she doesn't hate dogs' and an ad that talks about voting for her cause shes from 'the county' (aroostook county) and you should ignore her party. I know many people on both sides of the aisle who hate her, she tried to play all sides and instead just pissed everybody off. So thats a positive i see every day.

    I thought it was always kind of assumed that Ranked Choice would absolutely thundertruck her out of her seat unless s miracle occurred.

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  • Inkstain82Inkstain82 Registered User regular
    RedTide wrote: »
    I am feeling fairly confident about PA, AZ, and NC at the moment (in that order). Florida I will never trust. Georgia I am hopeful for. Texas would be beautiful but need to see election day turnout to see if Dems cannibalized all their votes. Think MI/WI are pretty well in the bag because of the COVID outbreaks up here.

    I think NC, WI and AZ gives us the ballgame and seems like the most likely outcome that doesn't involve PA.

    More likely then FL cause fuck florida

    Clinton + WI + MI + AZ + NE-02 gets you exactly 270 without needing PA and is easier than NC

    silence1186
  • Tyrant526Tyrant526 Registered User regular
    edited November 2020
    Taramoor wrote: »
    Tyrant526 wrote: »
    For anyone wondering how things are looking for Collins here in ME, two of her most played ads at this point are literally an old white man saying 'vote for Susan, she doesn't hate dogs' and an ad that talks about voting for her cause shes from 'the county' (aroostook county) and you should ignore her party. I know many people on both sides of the aisle who hate her, she tried to play all sides and instead just pissed everybody off. So thats a positive i see every day.

    I thought it was always kind of assumed that Ranked Choice would absolutely thundertruck her out of her seat unless s miracle occurred.

    Oh absolutely, thats been the common wisdom. The push for RCV after lepage won with such a low % and was awful, was a much welcome change. But its still fun to see someone who's pissed on and pissed off so many of her constituites get her walloping to the point she's spending what money she has to say 'vote for me, i dont hate dogs'. Like, thats a pretty low bar......of which our current president doesn't somehow pass.

    Tyrant526 on
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    GiantGeek2020ElldrenmonikerElvenshae
  • ForarForar #432 Toronto, Ontario, CanadaRegistered User regular
    Not gonna lie, when I saw the old thread was already closed so early, I was kind of concerned. This one not already having 50 pages dodged some of it, but I was ready to break out the hard liquor all the same.

    First they came for the Muslims, and we said NOT TODAY, MOTHERFUCKER!
    ElvenshaeRickRude
  • chrisnlchrisnl Registered User regular
    Forar wrote: »
    Not gonna lie, when I saw the old thread was already closed so early, I was kind of concerned. This one not already having 50 pages dodged some of it, but I was ready to break out the hard liquor all the same.

    I still haven't decided if I'm going to stop by the ABC store when I go make my annual cheap candy run tomorrow. On the one hand, I want some alcohol to celebrate a victory. On the other hand, if I'm drowning sorrows instead that would be a tremendously bad idea to have alcohol handy.

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    Elvenshae
  • HacksawHacksaw J. Duggan Esq. Wrestler at LawRegistered User regular
    I'm getting drunk either way.

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  • DrezDrez Registered User regular
    edited November 2020
    Gonna be honest: Harrison's and McGrath's and even, to some degree, Biden's text messages and emails are fucking killing me. Biden's are the most measured but Harrison's? So much doom and gloom. And it's like every 15 minutes. It's really chipping away at my mental health. I literally don't know what to believe anymore.

    Drez on
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  • DrezDrez Registered User regular
    Like his last email subject is "sorry. we're abandoning Joe Biden..." wtf

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  • IncenjucarIncenjucar Not a Fictional Character Seattle, WARegistered User regular
    I don't really use booze to cope much, but I'll absolutely have a bit of bourbon. My response to all of this has been to become increasingly emotionally blank, and I'm going to need a bit of help unlocking my emotions after this.

    lonelyahavamonikerDoodmann
  • AtomikaAtomika She hungers. Registered User regular
    Incenjucar wrote: »
    I don't really use booze to cope much, but I'll absolutely have a bit of bourbon. My response to all of this has been to become increasingly emotionally blank, and I'm going to need a bit of help unlocking my emotions after this.

    I unlocked my emotions right into a night at the psych hospital last time

    just saying

    AbsoluteZeroKristmas Kthulhu
  • IncenjucarIncenjucar Not a Fictional Character Seattle, WARegistered User regular
    Atomika wrote: »
    Incenjucar wrote: »
    I don't really use booze to cope much, but I'll absolutely have a bit of bourbon. My response to all of this has been to become increasingly emotionally blank, and I'm going to need a bit of help unlocking my emotions after this.

    I unlocked my emotions right into a night at the psych hospital last time

    just saying

    Not really a risk with me and the way I work, but I appreciate the concern. <3

    Elvenshae
  • OremLKOremLK Registered User regular
    Tomanta wrote: »
    Harris County Clerk is taking the drive-through voting challenge seriously, posted a form to sign up for the legal representation as an intervening defendant.

    Looks like the hearing is at 10:30am Monday morning.

    @HarrisVotes
    will fight like hell to protect the 127,000 voters who utilized drive-thru voting. If you voted drive-thru and want to personally intervene in the federal lawsuit, one option for FREE legal representation is here:

    @OremLK

    @Tomanta Thanks for pointing this out! Looking into it now.

    Commander ZoomwobblyheadedbobjdarksunmonikerTomantaAbsoluteZeroElvenshaeemp123Calica
  • ceresceres When the last moon is cast over the last star of morning And the future has past without even a last desperate warningRegistered User, Moderator mod
    I wonder if there's a national statistic for the number of people taking PTO/calling out of work during Election Week. On the off chance there is one, I would be very interested to see how 2020 stacks up.

    And it seems like all is dying, and would leave the world to mourn
    AbsoluteZero
  • Commander ZoomCommander Zoom Registered User regular
    edited November 2020
    ceres wrote: »
    I wonder if there's a national statistic for the number of people taking PTO/calling out of work during Election Week. On the off chance there is one, I would be very interested to see how 2020 stacks up.

    I can think of a couple of complicating factors that would make any meaningful comparison very difficult:

    1. How many people are doing so this time on a "once burned twice shy"/"better safe than sorry" basis, who didn't bother in 2016 because hey, we got this, right? (and then spent the rest of the week wandering in a daze of despair, because they hadn't and couldn't)

    2. How many people are already out of work, working from home, etc etc because of the pandemic?

    Commander Zoom on
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  • Houk the NamebringerHouk the Namebringer Nipples The EchidnaRegistered User regular
    I'm voting in person only because I moved to a new state recently and haven't had a chance to get the in-state ID required to get sent a mail-in ballot at my new address

    Luckily I live in a small town in a relatively rural area, so with any luck it won't be too busy and social distancing should be pretty easy

    IncenjucartolragAbsoluteZeroElvenshaeKristmas Kthulhu
  • JaysonFourJaysonFour Classy Monster Kitteh Registered User regular
    Inkstain82 wrote: »
    RedTide wrote: »
    I am feeling fairly confident about PA, AZ, and NC at the moment (in that order). Florida I will never trust. Georgia I am hopeful for. Texas would be beautiful but need to see election day turnout to see if Dems cannibalized all their votes. Think MI/WI are pretty well in the bag because of the COVID outbreaks up here.

    I think NC, WI and AZ gives us the ballgame and seems like the most likely outcome that doesn't involve PA.

    More likely then FL cause fuck florida

    Clinton + WI + MI + AZ + NE-02 gets you exactly 270 without needing PA and is easier than NC

    270 won’t be good enough. There are two and a half months between Election Day and Inauguration Day and the ratfucking machines will be in high gear, so we need to make it look impossible for them to fight back. Solid wins in enough states to where stuff like Florida/Georgia/etc. shouldn’t matter is what we need. If it ends up close it’ll end up in court, and we’re fucked because of Kavanaugh, Barrett and the rest.

    Make it appear that it won’t matter if they try- if we’re winning by 50 or 60 EVs and they want to argue over PA? That’s what we need.

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  • OremLKOremLK Registered User regular
    North Carolina getting called for Biden early on election night is my fairly-realistic hope. Consistent, albeit narrow lead in the polls for Biden, they generally report early and can count early/absentee votes early, Democratic governor and board of elections. If that happens then I'll feel pretty confident that Biden will have at least a one-state margin above 270.

    monikerbrynhrtmnshryke
  • AbsalonAbsalon Registered User regular
    edited November 2020
    JaysonFour wrote: »
    270 won’t be good enough. There are two and a half months between Election Day and Inauguration Day and the ratfucking machines will be in high gear, so we need to make it look impossible for them to fight back. Solid wins in enough states to where stuff like Florida/Georgia/etc. shouldn’t matter is what we need. If it ends up close it’ll end up in court, and we’re fucked because of Kavanaugh, Barrett and the rest.

    Make it appear that it won’t matter if they try- if we’re winning by 50 or 60 EVs and they want to argue over PA? That’s what we need.

    Only if voters aren't ready to fuck back.

    Absalon on
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  • FencingsaxFencingsax It is difficult to get a man to understand, when his salary depends upon his not understanding GNU Terry PratchettRegistered User regular
    I was listening to the TPM podcast, and they said 2 things that made sense and made me feel better about SCOTUS shit. 1) Nobody wants to back
    Drez wrote: »
    Gonna be honest: Harrison's and McGrath's and even, to some degree, Biden's text messages and emails are fucking killing me. Biden's are the most measured but Harrison's? So much doom and gloom. And it's like every 15 minutes. It's really chipping away at my mental health. I literally don't know what to believe anymore.

    Either gonna buy a good Scotch or a good Tequila, depending.

  • Creature_TeethCreature_Teeth Registered User regular
    I’ve had a few friends newly interested in voting ask about local races. I don’t want to overwhelm or discourage them with a lot of new information so I give them a rather hamfisted rule I followed when I was first getting in to voting and was confronted with the several unfamiliar local races. Vote for minority, young, or women candidates.

    County, municipal, and other elections don’t always ave political parties to guide your vote in my state. I find that most of the time candidates in those demographics hold similar views as I do. I know I have the choice to just skip and I figure I have voted for candidates contrary to my values when I was still familiarizing myself with local issues. But overall I want to see these demographics in politics more often. And more often than not they are in line with my values.

  • AbsalonAbsalon Registered User regular
    edited November 2020
    LAST NYT/SIENA POLLS
    All telephone
    (% chg w Oct 5)
    +6 Biden PA
    +3 Biden FL
    +11 Biden WI
    +6 Biden AZ

    Arizona
    Biden (D): 49% (-)
    Trump (R): 43% (+2)
    Jorgensen (L): 3% (-)

    Kelly (D): 50% (-)
    McSally (R): 43% (+4)
    n=1252/ MOE 3.2%
    Florida
    Biden (D): 47% (-)
    Trump (R): 44% (+2)
    n=1451 / MOE 3.0%
    (Undecideds in Florida skew non-White, and if they are also undecided, they are not old ex-Cubans/Batista-lovers)
    Pennsylvania
    Biden (D): 49% (-)
    Trump (R): 43% (+1)
    n=1862 / MOE 2.4%
    (undecideds here also more non-White than White)
    Wisconsin
    Biden (D): 52% (+1)
    Trump (R): 41% (-)
    Jorgensen (L): 3% (-)
    n=1253 / MOE 3.2%

    There, you can exhale a bit. Big samples, and Trump has picked up a little in a few states over the entirety of October but not by more than the MoE.

    Absalon on
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  • romanqwertyromanqwerty Registered User regular
    Are there really any undecideds at this stage and can you even make any predictions on how they might break as anything other than pure randomness?

  • AbsalonAbsalon Registered User regular
    edited November 2020
    Are there really any undecideds at this stage and can you even make any predictions on how they might break as anything other than pure randomness?

    You can basically assume, without creating a big error, that the undecideds allocate according to their demographics both in terms of voting choice and in terms of staying home.

    Monmouth in PA tomorrow, new NBC/WSJ national poll should come out today, and some Fox state polls.

    Absalon on
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  • wobblyheadedbobwobblyheadedbob Registered User regular
    Absalon wrote: »
    LAST NYT/SIENA POLLS
    All telephone
    (% chg w Oct 5)
    +6 Biden PA
    +3 Biden FL
    +11 Biden WI
    +6 Biden AZ

    Arizona
    Biden (D): 49% (-)
    Trump (R): 43% (+2)
    Jorgensen (L): 3% (-)

    Kelly (D): 50% (-)
    McSally (R): 43% (+4)
    n=1252/ MOE 3.2%
    Florida
    Biden (D): 47% (-)
    Trump (R): 44% (+2)
    n=1451 / MOE 3.0%
    (Undecideds in Florida skew non-White, and if they are also undecided, they are not old ex-Cubans/Batista-lovers)
    Pennsylvania
    Biden (D): 49% (-)
    Trump (R): 43% (+1)
    n=1862 / MOE 2.4%
    (undecideds here also more non-White than White)
    Wisconsin
    Biden (D): 52% (+1)
    Trump (R): 41% (-)
    Jorgensen (L): 3% (-)
    n=1253 / MOE 3.2%

    There, you can exhale a bit. Big samples, and Trump has picked up a little in a few states over the entirety of October but not by more than the MoE.

    Man, that is reassuring.

    JragghenAPODionysusNetscape
  • AbsalonAbsalon Registered User regular
    edited November 2020
    With that Wisconsin result we can lock it and Biden has 259 Electoral College votes, and needs one of the following: Arizona, Florida, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Texas, North Carolina, or Ohio.

    Noteworthy things about NYT/Siena: the samples in each case lead R in terms of voter registration and recalled 2016 vote — no secret pool of missing Trump fans.

    Also, from Greg Sargent, big political blogger.

    "Biden has big leads among those who didn't vote in 2016. And they make up non-trivial portions of the electorate.
    Here are Biden's leads [with them], followed by their vote share:

    WI +19 (11%)
    FL +17 (18%)
    PA +12 (18%)
    AZ +7 (22%)"

    Absalon on
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  • EchoEcho Moderator mod
    edited November 2020
    This isn't creepy or anything.

    tweeter is "former foreign policy spokesman for HillaryClinton"


    GOP official in PA slams the Trump campaign after they asked for:

    "names of people who transport ballots & voting machines once polls close, the names of people who have access to the ballots afterward & the precise locations where the ballots are stored"

    Echo on
    Echo wrote: »
    Let they who have not posted about their balls in the wrong thread cast the first stone.
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  • autono-wally, erotibot300autono-wally, erotibot300 love machine Registered User regular
    Echo wrote: »
    This isn't creepy or anything.

    tweeter is "former foreign policy spokesman for HillaryClinton"


    GOP official in PA slams the Trump campaign after they asked for:

    "names of people who transport ballots & voting machines once polls close, the names of people who have access to the ballots afterward & the precise locations where the ballots are stored"

    Yeah, that's not just ratfuckery anymore. That's outright planning stealing it brazenly

    kFJhXwE.jpgkFJhXwE.jpg
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  • Man in the MistsMan in the Mists Registered User regular
    Echo wrote: »
    This isn't creepy or anything.

    tweeter is "former foreign policy spokesman for HillaryClinton"


    GOP official in PA slams the Trump campaign after they asked for:

    "names of people who transport ballots & voting machines once polls close, the names of people who have access to the ballots afterward & the precise locations where the ballots are stored"

    Even for the Trump campaign that is extremely unsubtle.

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  • MorganVMorganV Registered User regular
    Echo wrote: »
    This isn't creepy or anything.

    tweeter is "former foreign policy spokesman for HillaryClinton"


    GOP official in PA slams the Trump campaign after they asked for:

    "names of people who transport ballots & voting machines once polls close, the names of people who have access to the ballots afterward & the precise locations where the ballots are stored"

    Even for the Trump campaign that is extremely unsubtle.

    Gonna hope, based on the tweet, that the GOP official told them to get fucked.

    Not gonna assume so. Too many Flake/Collins/Romney "I object! But no, I won't oppose" bullshit the last four years.

    JaysonFourMan in the MistsOremLKFencingsaxGiantGeek2020valhalla130CelestialBadgerCouscousSorceTicaldfjamjdarksunmonikerKayne Red RobeCantideJazzboogedybooXaquinMild ConfusionA Kobold's KoboldAbsoluteZeroCommander ZoomIncenjucarGennenalyse RuebenShadowfireKraintNiryaHacksawLabelRickRudeKamarPhoenix-DCojo MojoSkeithemp123mjn6172Donovan Puppyfucker
  • Undead ScottsmanUndead Scottsman Registered User regular
    According to the article
    County Commissioner Gary Eichelberger, a Republican, called the request intrusive and said that responding might disrupt election administration in the Republican-leaning county of 253,000.

    “Our responsibility is to protect the integrity and security of the election,” he told The Post on Saturday. “I don’t know if the Trump campaign understands that, but they’re asking to do our job as the board of elections. And that’s our job, not their job.” He said he’d never seen a request like it in 16 years as an election official.

    A campaign spokeswoman, Thea McDonald, said the request was for “standard election transparency details.” She said the campaign had been in touch with other counties, “some of which transparently provided answers to these important, reasonable questions via less formal requests.”

    Curious if the "other counties" actually provided the data or if the Trump campaign is just lying to make it sound less damning. ("We asked other people and they were okay with it, so we've done nothing wrong! Give us the data!"

    MorganVmonikerGnome-InterruptusAbsoluteZeroElvenshaeRickRudeMatevKamarKristmas Kthulhumjn6172
  • OremLKOremLK Registered User regular
    Man, that WaPo illustration of Trump is way too flattering. He hasn't looked that friendly a day in his life.

    JaysonFourFencingsaxjdarksunTaminKoopahTroopahJazzshrykeAbsoluteZeroEmerlmaster999Commander ZoomGennenalyse RuebenStabbity StyleNetscapeLabelHandkorRickRudeMatevPhoenix-DBullheadLeeksNobeardemp123mjn6172Donovan Puppyfucker
  • EchoEcho Moderator mod
    edited November 2020
    If they're "important, reasonable", then why do they need "less formal"?

    Rhetorical question.

    Echo on
    Echo wrote: »
    Let they who have not posted about their balls in the wrong thread cast the first stone.
    JaysonFourElldrenmonikerJazzboogedybooGnome-InterruptusAbsoluteZeroElvenshaeGennenalyse RuebenNetscapeMatevArdolemp123mjn6172
  • DarmakDarmak RAGE vympyvvhyc vyctyvyRegistered User regular
    Fencingsax wrote: »
    I was listening to the TPM podcast, and they said 2 things that made sense and made me feel better about SCOTUS shit. 1) Nobody wants to back
    Drez wrote: »
    Gonna be honest: Harrison's and McGrath's and even, to some degree, Biden's text messages and emails are fucking killing me. Biden's are the most measured but Harrison's? So much doom and gloom. And it's like every 15 minutes. It's really chipping away at my mental health. I literally don't know what to believe anymore.

    Either gonna buy a good Scotch or a good Tequila, depending.

    Definitely get some of that extra anejo

    V0iJ9AS.png
  • RMS OceanicRMS Oceanic Registered User regular
    Submit thread name changed to "Subtle Does Not Go Here"

    ElvenshaeMan in the Mists
This discussion has been closed.