GA ends it if it's called for Biden, yes? Even if Trump gets everything else?
EC would be 275 to 238 for Biden, I believe.
GA without AZ makes it 269 269. That would go to the house under arcane rules that depend on state delegations.
But with Nevada, which is exceedingly likely Biden, it is enough, even without PA or AZ.
And PA is in the bag too, it's just a wait.
I don't expect an official call on GA if it is under 2k at the end.
There will be a recount. There will be lawsuits.
GA will appoint electors once the dust settles.
Officially it doesn't end up December 14th
Biden will probably declare himself the victor when PA comes in.
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EncA Fool with CompassionPronouns: He, Him, HisRegistered Userregular
How much is left with AZ? Did they give an expected end result?
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AtomikaLive fast and get fucked or whateverRegistered Userregular
I think right now my biggest anxiety is military ballots offsetting Biden/Harris gains, and I can’t really find any info on what to expect for the states are looking at.
In the latest results — based on 1,018 active-duty troops surveyed in late July and early August — nearly half of respondents (49.9 percent) had an unfavorable view of the president, compared to about 38 percent who had a favorable view. Questions in the poll had a margin of error of up to 2 percent.
Among all survey participants, 42 percent said they “strongly” disapprove of Trump’s time in office.
No offense, but I trust polls at this point about as far as I can throw Nate Silver
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Giggles_FunsworthBlight on DiscourseBay Area SprawlRegistered Userregular
I think right now my biggest anxiety is military ballots offsetting Biden/Harris gains, and I can’t really find any info on what to expect for the states are looking at.
In the latest results — based on 1,018 active-duty troops surveyed in late July and early August — nearly half of respondents (49.9 percent) had an unfavorable view of the president, compared to about 38 percent who had a favorable view. Questions in the poll had a margin of error of up to 2 percent.
Among all survey participants, 42 percent said they “strongly” disapprove of Trump’s time in office.
No offense, but I trust polls at this point about as far as I can throw Nate Silver
How much is left with AZ? Did they give an expected end result?
Feed is showing around 300k ballots left, but Biden's lead is opening back up. For a long time Trump was right on the bubble for an upset and whittled down a lot of lead but now he's going in the wrong direction, but with a ways to go.
Those 300k are overwhelmingly Maricopa County... Which is expected to favor Biden, but I've put a number on my trust of Maricopa County and it's less than the number of sheriff's they've had saved from jail by presidential pardons.
GA ends it if it's called for Biden, yes? Even if Trump gets everything else?
EC would be 275 to 238 for Biden, I believe.
GA without AZ makes it 269 269. That would go to the house under arcane rules that depend on state delegations.
But with Nevada, which is exceedingly likely Biden, it is enough, even without PA or AZ.
And PA is in the bag too, it's just a wait.
I don't expect an official call on GA if it is under 2k at the end.
There will be a recount. There will be lawsuits.
GA will appoint electors once the dust settles.
Officially it doesn't end up December 14th
Biden will probably declare himself the victor when PA comes in.
I don’t even want to consider the possibility of a tie.
I think I heard every news director in the country perk up at the very idea.
GA ends it if it's called for Biden, yes? Even if Trump gets everything else?
EC would be 275 to 238 for Biden, I believe.
GA without AZ makes it 269 269. That would go to the house under arcane rules that depend on state delegations.
But with Nevada, which is exceedingly likely Biden, it is enough, even without PA or AZ.
And PA is in the bag too, it's just a wait.
I don't expect an official call on GA if it is under 2k at the end.
There will be a recount. There will be lawsuits.
GA will appoint electors once the dust settles.
Officially it doesn't end up December 14th
Biden will probably declare himself the victor when PA comes in.
I don’t even want to consider the possibility of a tie.
I think I heard every news director in the country perk up at the very idea.
The chances that Trump takes Nevada, which he needs to tie if Biden keeps Georgia, are not worrying. It's seemingly not called because of the trigger happy early call on Arizona, to avoid calling the election when it was 100% not callable.
I'm still cool with Nate Silver, what he does works for me. It's like a form of mental pepto bismol. I'm sure Biden's camp is using prescription strength polling, but that's not what I need.
That said, polling about the military doesn't really tell me anything about Georgia. It's a traditionally red state that produces, I would assume, redder than average enlisted. Maybe not, maybe they follow the same trend as the state itself. But it's not a slice of population I'm thrilled to be waiting on.
What would happen if neither got 270? Thunderdome?
Goes to the House of Representatives. But they don't vote as individual people, they vote as states, and the distribution there means it would go to Trump.
You might think this is dumb.
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TavIrish Minister for DefenceRegistered Userregular
i swear this election is just edging us now at this stage
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EncA Fool with CompassionPronouns: He, Him, HisRegistered Userregular
edited November 2020
A tie is a loss for America. It needs to be a win, and a win without range for recount fuckery.
Best outcome from where we currently stand:
Nevada's lead stays or grows to run up the clock
Arizona's lead stays or grows to run up the clock
Georgia lead stays or grows to over 3,000 (which is probably unlikely)
Pennsylvania flips and grows to over 60,000 (which math people think is likely, but hasn't happened yet)
The GOP won't pay for recounts if there are so many of them that the outcome is in doubt. Paying for both GA and WI would be out of the question if the remaining 3 flip with high enough margins. And Trump doesn't have enough money in his warchest to pay for it himself.
Seems like Stacy Abrams and her New Georgia Project brings the Peach State over to Biden.
The New Georgia Project was Abram's plan to register new voters in Georgia and make them engaged in politics. Georgia having received 1.3 million new inhabitants in the last 20 years, with 60-80% of them POC. TNGP wase part of a consortium registered around 800k new voters in the last five years, with TNGP alone registering 450k. (alot of them came to late to vote for Stacy Abrams for Gov, but available to vote now)
So with Biden up by a thousand votes, I think giving them the credit isn't that far out.
Grassroots matter people. Especially since it seems run offs in the senate elections are in the offing. https://newgeorgiaproject.org/
The sky was full of stars, every star an exploding ship. One of ours.
What would happen if neither got 270? Thunderdome?
Goes to the House of Representatives. But they don't vote as individual people, they vote as states, and the distribution there means it would go to Trump.
You might think this is dumb.
Goddamn does the constitution need a makeover.
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EncA Fool with CompassionPronouns: He, Him, HisRegistered Userregular
What would happen if neither got 270? Thunderdome?
Goes to the House of Representatives. But they don't vote as individual people, they vote as states, and the distribution there means it would go to Trump.
You might think this is dumb.
Goddamn does the constitution need a makeover.
Like many things, the constitution as it stands made perfect sense in the era it was written but has lost sensibility over time. If states were formed by population rather than how we carved up first nation holdings by keptocrats, it would still work today with probably most of the plains states being one big state with ~11-14 evs.
All I can say at the moment is thank fucking christ.
It's all up in the air still, but with Biden actually ahead, you would have to pull some hard bullshit with stopping the count or whatever to make it a Trump win.
A tie is a loss for America. It needs to be a win, and a win without range for recount fuckery.
Best outcome from where we currently stand:
Nevada's lead stays or grows to run up the clock
Arizona's lead stays or grows to run up the clock
Georgia lead stays or grows to over 3,000 (which is probably unlikely)
Pennsylvania flips and grows to over 60,000 (which math people think is likely, but hasn't happened yet)
The GOP won't pay for recounts if there are so many of them that the outcome is in doubt. Paying for both GA and WI would be out of the question if the remaining 3 flip with high enough margins. And Trump doesn't have enough money in his warchest to pay for it himself.
He’ll grift it from his supporters and pocket the rest.
Seems like Stacy Abrams and her New Georgia Project brings the Peach State over to Biden.
The New Georgia Project was Abram's plan to register new voters in Georgia and make them engaged in politics. Georgia having received 1.3 million new inhabitants in the last 20 years, with 60-80% of them POC. TNGP wase part of a consortium registered around 800k new voters in the last five years, with TNGP alone registering 450k. (alot of them came to late to vote for Stacy Abrams for Gov, but available to vote now)
So with Biden up by a thousand votes, I think giving them the credit isn't that far out.
Grassroots matter people. Especially since it seems run offs in the senate elections are in the offing. https://newgeorgiaproject.org/
If he wins, Biden really should appoint Abrams to some sort of position in his administration. She definitely deserves it, should she desire it.
Once again, black women come to the rescue of the Democratic party.
What would happen if neither got 270? Thunderdome?
Goes to the House of Representatives. But they don't vote as individual people, they vote as states, and the distribution there means it would go to Trump.
You might think this is dumb.
Goddamn does the constitution need a makeover.
Like many things, the constitution as it stands made perfect sense in the era it was written but has lost sensibility over time. If states were formed by population rather than how we carved up first nation holdings by keptocrats, it would still work today with probably most of the plains states being one big state with ~11-14 evs.
Can't they just redistribute senators based on population?
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daveNYCWhy universe hate Waspinator?Registered Userregular
What would happen if neither got 270? Thunderdome?
Goes to the House of Representatives. But they don't vote as individual people, they vote as states, and the distribution there means it would go to Trump.
You might think this is dumb.
Goddamn does the constitution need a makeover.
Like many things, the constitution as it stands made perfect sense in the era it was written but has lost sensibility over time. If states were formed by population rather than how we carved up first nation holdings by keptocrats, it would still work today with probably most of the plains states being one big state with ~11-14 evs.
The voting by state is just stupid. I understand why they didn't just send it to the Senate because they weren't directly elected at that point, but voting by state undercuts the whole point of the House of Representatives.
I think that most of the founders would be flabbergasted that not only are we still using the same constitution, we've only added 17 amendments and two of them are related to booze.
Shut up, Mr. Burton! You were not brought upon this world to get it!
What would happen if neither got 270? Thunderdome?
Goes to the House of Representatives. But they don't vote as individual people, they vote as states, and the distribution there means it would go to Trump.
You might think this is dumb.
Goddamn does the constitution need a makeover.
Like many things, the constitution as it stands made perfect sense in the era it was written but has lost sensibility over time. If states were formed by population rather than how we carved up first nation holdings by keptocrats, it would still work today with probably most of the plains states being one big state with ~11-14 evs.
The voting by state is just stupid. I understand why they didn't just send it to the Senate because they weren't directly elected at that point, but voting by state undercuts the whole point of the House of Representatives.
I think that most of the founders would be flabbergasted that not only are we still using the same constitution, we've only added 17 amendments and two of them are related to booze.
It doesn't, in the colonial context. The Senate (the body of the elite, akin to the house of lords) chooses the vice president while the House (the body of the people, nominally) chooses the President in the event of a tie. Both do so as a delegation because during the founding of the country there was vast wealth and population disparity across the country. New York and Pennsylvania were over half the total population of the country at that time, and given that the states were only very recently, and in many cases very reluctantly, ceding power to a newly formed Federal Government, having state delegations kept the smaller states from having the fear of being subsumed by the larger ones.
Part of the reasons we haven't changed the constitution is the very same reason why the Senate and state delegations are bonkers. You need most of the states to go along with it, and we have so many states with low populations that are dominated by conservative and corporate leanings that it makes it very very difficult to actually update the darn thing. It also has to come from the states to do so, not congress, which adds an additional wedge in there.
There are plenty of valid arguments that the best way to fix the legistlature to work is a three-punch combo of:
Disband the senate and move all powers to the house.
Eliminate FptP voting for ranked choice.
Establishing congressional maximum serving limits of about a decade
Those two changes would essentially cause all other democracy-needed changes to begin to fall into place over time.
Its also worth remembering that a "soft" constitutional amendment is also under way right now, as we speak, and has slowly been fixing itself over time: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tUX-frlNBJY
Stacey Abrams deserves the goddamn nobel peace prize.
She's made the rounds to about half of the podcasts I listen to and she is also a huge fan of Dr. who, Star Trek, and is a published sci fi author under a pseudonym.
Stacey Abrams deserves the goddamn nobel peace prize.
She's made the rounds to about half of the podcasts I listen to and she is also a huge fan of Dr. who, Star Trek, and is a published sci fi author under a pseudonym.
If we didn't need her so badly in GA both for the special election and governor mansion in two years I'd say give her the head of the DNC.
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Giggles_FunsworthBlight on DiscourseBay Area SprawlRegistered Userregular
Stacey Abrams deserves the goddamn nobel peace prize.
She's made the rounds to about half of the podcasts I listen to and she is also a huge fan of Dr. who, Star Trek, and is a published sci fi author under a pseudonym.
Under what name does she write?
Sic transit gloria mundi.
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Magus`The fun has been DOUBLED!Registered Userregular
Posts
GA without AZ makes it 269 269. That would go to the house under arcane rules that depend on state delegations.
But with Nevada, which is exceedingly likely Biden, it is enough, even without PA or AZ.
And PA is in the bag too, it's just a wait.
I don't expect an official call on GA if it is under 2k at the end.
There will be a recount. There will be lawsuits.
GA will appoint electors once the dust settles.
Officially it doesn't end up December 14th
Biden will probably declare himself the victor when PA comes in.
No offense, but I trust polls at this point about as far as I can throw Nate Silver
Fair enough.
Feed is showing around 300k ballots left, but Biden's lead is opening back up. For a long time Trump was right on the bubble for an upset and whittled down a lot of lead but now he's going in the wrong direction, but with a ways to go.
Those 300k are overwhelmingly Maricopa County... Which is expected to favor Biden, but I've put a number on my trust of Maricopa County and it's less than the number of sheriff's they've had saved from jail by presidential pardons.
I don’t even want to consider the possibility of a tie.
I think I heard every news director in the country perk up at the very idea.
twitch.tv/Taramoor
@TaramoorPlays
Taramoor on Youtube
The chances that Trump takes Nevada, which he needs to tie if Biden keeps Georgia, are not worrying. It's seemingly not called because of the trigger happy early call on Arizona, to avoid calling the election when it was 100% not callable.
That said, polling about the military doesn't really tell me anything about Georgia. It's a traditionally red state that produces, I would assume, redder than average enlisted. Maybe not, maybe they follow the same trend as the state itself. But it's not a slice of population I'm thrilled to be waiting on.
For Trump to win, it's the inverse. He absolutely needs Pennsylvania, AND he needs at least three of Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.
Yes, better known as the House of Representatives.
Goes to the House of Representatives. But they don't vote as individual people, they vote as states, and the distribution there means it would go to Trump.
You might think this is dumb.
Best outcome from where we currently stand:
The GOP won't pay for recounts if there are so many of them that the outcome is in doubt. Paying for both GA and WI would be out of the question if the remaining 3 flip with high enough margins. And Trump doesn't have enough money in his warchest to pay for it himself.
The New Georgia Project was Abram's plan to register new voters in Georgia and make them engaged in politics. Georgia having received 1.3 million new inhabitants in the last 20 years, with 60-80% of them POC. TNGP wase part of a consortium registered around 800k new voters in the last five years, with TNGP alone registering 450k. (alot of them came to late to vote for Stacy Abrams for Gov, but available to vote now)
So with Biden up by a thousand votes, I think giving them the credit isn't that far out.
Grassroots matter people. Especially since it seems run offs in the senate elections are in the offing.
https://newgeorgiaproject.org/
David Tennant had a podcast with her on a little while ago and she's a huge fan of Doctor Who. These two facts are unrelated.
Choose Your Own Chat 1 Choose Your Own Chat 2 Choose Your Own Chat 3
Goddamn does the constitution need a makeover.
Are they though?
Like many things, the constitution as it stands made perfect sense in the era it was written but has lost sensibility over time. If states were formed by population rather than how we carved up first nation holdings by keptocrats, it would still work today with probably most of the plains states being one big state with ~11-14 evs.
It's all up in the air still, but with Biden actually ahead, you would have to pull some hard bullshit with stopping the count or whatever to make it a Trump win.
He’ll grift it from his supporters and pocket the rest.
Democracy. Made... in Georgia.
If he wins, Biden really should appoint Abrams to some sort of position in his administration. She definitely deserves it, should she desire it.
Once again, black women come to the rescue of the Democratic party.
Can't they just redistribute senators based on population?
The voting by state is just stupid. I understand why they didn't just send it to the Senate because they weren't directly elected at that point, but voting by state undercuts the whole point of the House of Representatives.
I think that most of the founders would be flabbergasted that not only are we still using the same constitution, we've only added 17 amendments and two of them are related to booze.
'22. She's coming for him.
It doesn't, in the colonial context. The Senate (the body of the elite, akin to the house of lords) chooses the vice president while the House (the body of the people, nominally) chooses the President in the event of a tie. Both do so as a delegation because during the founding of the country there was vast wealth and population disparity across the country. New York and Pennsylvania were over half the total population of the country at that time, and given that the states were only very recently, and in many cases very reluctantly, ceding power to a newly formed Federal Government, having state delegations kept the smaller states from having the fear of being subsumed by the larger ones.
Part of the reasons we haven't changed the constitution is the very same reason why the Senate and state delegations are bonkers. You need most of the states to go along with it, and we have so many states with low populations that are dominated by conservative and corporate leanings that it makes it very very difficult to actually update the darn thing. It also has to come from the states to do so, not congress, which adds an additional wedge in there.
There are plenty of valid arguments that the best way to fix the legistlature to work is a three-punch combo of:
Those two changes would essentially cause all other democracy-needed changes to begin to fall into place over time.
Its also worth remembering that a "soft" constitutional amendment is also under way right now, as we speak, and has slowly been fixing itself over time:
Two things come to mind here.
Firstly, the writers for 2020 continue to be unimaginative hacks, writing the most obvious, cliched, and on-the-nose plots.
Secondly, I’m not crying, you’re crying.
She's made the rounds to about half of the podcasts I listen to and she is also a huge fan of Dr. who, Star Trek, and is a published sci fi author under a pseudonym.
There’s still piles of votes out there.
I can has cheezburger, yes?
also, ratfucking
Yeah count em all to expand Biden’s leads
biden won in 2020
If we didn't need her so badly in GA both for the special election and governor mansion in two years I'd say give her the head of the DNC.
TO BE FAIR–
It only happened this way because it was engineered.
But it's still good.
It's as sure as this sorta thing gets. Get some sleep bud.
Under what name does she write?
Fingers (and everything else) crossed.
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