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2020 Election Post-Mortem

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  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    daveNYC wrote: »
    Necropost baby!
    So turns out that the Democratic polling groups decided to do a post-mortem on just what happened with the polls in 2020. Bad news is that they're a tad iffy on what happened.
    The memo floats at least three possible causes: late movement toward Trump and Republican candidates that polls conducted in the run-up to the election failed to catch, the Covid pandemic causing people who stayed home to answer the phone at a greater rate than those who did not follow restrictions, and the decline of social trust and faith in institutions.
    The last one is not great, because I'm not sure what you can do to account for a certain percentage of your sample bullshitting you.

    "Low social trust" does not mean they were lying to pollsters afaik. It means they just weren't answering. One of the big things that seems to be going on right now is that there is a decline in social trust among certain groups of people and they are turning to people like Trump.

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  • Solomaxwell6Solomaxwell6 Registered User regular
    edited April 13
    Butters wrote: »
    It's not great but it should at least enlighten the DNC on what NOT to put too much money into e.g. a Kentucky Senate race

    How much did the DNC give to McGrath, vs PACs and individual donors deciding to donate to her?

    I mean, looking at the OpenSecrets records, the Dem Party of Kentucky was the state with only the 15th largest DNC contribution, and well below places like Florida and Pennsylvania. That's probably more than Kentucky deserved, but they weren't really going crazy. McGrath's fundraising success sounds less like a strategic mistake on the part of the Democratic party, and more that ordinary people just hate Mitch.

    Edit: And looking at the spending, almost all of it was Aug-Oct 2019. That lines up with the gubernatorial race, which the Dem won.

    Solomaxwell6 on
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  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    Butters wrote: »
    It's not great but it should at least enlighten the DNC on what NOT to put too much money into e.g. a Kentucky Senate race

    How much did the DNC give to McGrath, vs PACs and individual donors deciding to donate to her?

    I mean, looking at the OpenSecrets records, the Dem Party of Kentucky was the state with only the 15th largest DNC contribution, and well below places like Florida and Pennsylvania. That's probably more than Kentucky deserved, but they weren't really going crazy. McGrath's fundraising success sounds less like a strategic mistake on the part of the Democratic party, and more that ordinary people just hate Mitch.

    Yeah, my understanding was that it was individual donors who were pouring money into races that didn't need it, not the DNC itself. This is often cited as one of the issues with small dollar individual donations. They are based on whims and don't necessarily go where the money is needed.

    FencingsaxIncenjucarGnome-InterruptusMrMisterSpoit
  • something a million times dumbersomething a million times dumber JUDGE BROSEF Registered User regular
    Butters wrote: »
    It's not great but it should at least enlighten the DNC on what NOT to put too much money into e.g. a Kentucky Senate race

    How much did the DNC give to McGrath, vs PACs and individual donors deciding to donate to her?

    I mean, looking at the OpenSecrets records, the Dem Party of Kentucky was the state with only the 15th largest DNC contribution, and well below places like Florida and Pennsylvania. That's probably more than Kentucky deserved, but they weren't really going crazy. McGrath's fundraising success sounds less like a strategic mistake on the part of the Democratic party, and more that ordinary people just hate Mitch.

    Edit: And looking at the spending, almost all of it was Aug-Oct 2019. That lines up with the gubernatorial race, which the Dem won.

    the whole reason the party threw in with McGrath was because she had stronger ties to bigger fundraisers

    obviously kentucky didn't go the way the party wanted (I mean, I assume), but I doubt they took a bath on it

  • Solomaxwell6Solomaxwell6 Registered User regular
    Butters wrote: »
    It's not great but it should at least enlighten the DNC on what NOT to put too much money into e.g. a Kentucky Senate race

    How much did the DNC give to McGrath, vs PACs and individual donors deciding to donate to her?

    I mean, looking at the OpenSecrets records, the Dem Party of Kentucky was the state with only the 15th largest DNC contribution, and well below places like Florida and Pennsylvania. That's probably more than Kentucky deserved, but they weren't really going crazy. McGrath's fundraising success sounds less like a strategic mistake on the part of the Democratic party, and more that ordinary people just hate Mitch.

    Edit: And looking at the spending, almost all of it was Aug-Oct 2019. That lines up with the gubernatorial race, which the Dem won.

    the whole reason the party threw in with McGrath was because she had stronger ties to bigger fundraisers

    obviously kentucky didn't go the way the party wanted (I mean, I assume), but I doubt they took a bath on it

    Right, and until I saw that most of the money was for Beshear's 2019 campaign, that's the connection that I made.

    If I spend $100k getting people angry enough at Mitch McConnell that they give me $200k, that's money well spent regardless of who wins the race.

    (whereas the randos who collectively gave millions of dollars to McGrath and Harrison rather than NC, FL, etc were basically burning the money)

    And that's without considering the impact on downballot races and building party infrastructure. Kentucky's probably not the best target for party building money, but it could be relevant in similar races that are lost causes in that particular cycle.

  • CelestialBadgerCelestialBadger Registered User regular
    shryke wrote: »
    daveNYC wrote: »
    Necropost baby!
    So turns out that the Democratic polling groups decided to do a post-mortem on just what happened with the polls in 2020. Bad news is that they're a tad iffy on what happened.
    The memo floats at least three possible causes: late movement toward Trump and Republican candidates that polls conducted in the run-up to the election failed to catch, the Covid pandemic causing people who stayed home to answer the phone at a greater rate than those who did not follow restrictions, and the decline of social trust and faith in institutions.
    The last one is not great, because I'm not sure what you can do to account for a certain percentage of your sample bullshitting you.

    "Low social trust" does not mean they were lying to pollsters afaik. It means they just weren't answering. One of the big things that seems to be going on right now is that there is a decline in social trust among certain groups of people and they are turning to people like Trump.

    It's also the cause of the Q craze and other right-wing conspiracy theories. Right-wing Americans have lost all trust in society. It's an existential problem for the USA.

    BigJoeMshrykeCommander ZoomJragghenGiantGeek2020AistanHeirOrcaNobeardMr RayNetscapeJaysonFourzepherinzagdrobMayabirdLabelMan in the Mists
  • NobeardNobeard North Carolina: Failed StateRegistered User regular
    shryke wrote: »
    daveNYC wrote: »
    Necropost baby!
    So turns out that the Democratic polling groups decided to do a post-mortem on just what happened with the polls in 2020. Bad news is that they're a tad iffy on what happened.
    The memo floats at least three possible causes: late movement toward Trump and Republican candidates that polls conducted in the run-up to the election failed to catch, the Covid pandemic causing people who stayed home to answer the phone at a greater rate than those who did not follow restrictions, and the decline of social trust and faith in institutions.
    The last one is not great, because I'm not sure what you can do to account for a certain percentage of your sample bullshitting you.

    "Low social trust" does not mean they were lying to pollsters afaik. It means they just weren't answering. One of the big things that seems to be going on right now is that there is a decline in social trust among certain groups of people and they are turning to people like Trump.

    It's also the cause of the Q craze and other right-wing conspiracy theories. Right-wing Americans have lost all trust in society. It's an existential problem for the USA.

    Actual mass paranoid delusion is tricky to account for in polling, I expect.

    I'm not saying we are going to have an autocratic dystopia, but things keep happening that look like they come from an autocratic dystopia.
    HeirBlackDragon480CelestialBadgerzepherinGnome-InterruptusLord_Asmodeus
  • Alistair HuttonAlistair Hutton Dr EdinburghRegistered User regular
    daveNYC wrote: »
    Necropost baby!
    So turns out that the Democratic polling groups decided to do a post-mortem on just what happened with the polls in 2020. Bad news is that they're a tad iffy on what happened.
    The memo floats at least three possible causes: late movement toward Trump and Republican candidates that polls conducted in the run-up to the election failed to catch, the Covid pandemic causing people who stayed home to answer the phone at a greater rate than those who did not follow restrictions, and the decline of social trust and faith in institutions.
    The last one is not great, because I'm not sure what you can do to account for a certain percentage of your sample bullshitting you.

    The Covid reason for polling miss is pretty solid. Online polls did better than phone polls this time out. That absolutely jives with a response bias caused by more covid cautious people staying at home.

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  • BlackDragon480BlackDragon480 Bluster Kerfuffle Master of Windy ImportRegistered User regular
    Nobeard wrote: »
    shryke wrote: »
    daveNYC wrote: »
    Necropost baby!
    So turns out that the Democratic polling groups decided to do a post-mortem on just what happened with the polls in 2020. Bad news is that they're a tad iffy on what happened.
    The memo floats at least three possible causes: late movement toward Trump and Republican candidates that polls conducted in the run-up to the election failed to catch, the Covid pandemic causing people who stayed home to answer the phone at a greater rate than those who did not follow restrictions, and the decline of social trust and faith in institutions.
    The last one is not great, because I'm not sure what you can do to account for a certain percentage of your sample bullshitting you.

    "Low social trust" does not mean they were lying to pollsters afaik. It means they just weren't answering. One of the big things that seems to be going on right now is that there is a decline in social trust among certain groups of people and they are turning to people like Trump.

    It's also the cause of the Q craze and other right-wing conspiracy theories. Right-wing Americans have lost all trust in society. It's an existential problem for the USA.

    Actual mass paranoid delusion is tricky to account for in polling, I expect.

    It'd probably be easier to account for a massive flash mob triggered by ergot poisioning.

    First they came for the Muslims and we said...NOT TODAY MOTHERFUCKERS!
  • AtomikaAtomika She hungers. Registered User regular
    shryke wrote: »
    daveNYC wrote: »
    Necropost baby!
    So turns out that the Democratic polling groups decided to do a post-mortem on just what happened with the polls in 2020. Bad news is that they're a tad iffy on what happened.
    The memo floats at least three possible causes: late movement toward Trump and Republican candidates that polls conducted in the run-up to the election failed to catch, the Covid pandemic causing people who stayed home to answer the phone at a greater rate than those who did not follow restrictions, and the decline of social trust and faith in institutions.
    The last one is not great, because I'm not sure what you can do to account for a certain percentage of your sample bullshitting you.

    "Low social trust" does not mean they were lying to pollsters afaik. It means they just weren't answering. One of the big things that seems to be going on right now is that there is a decline in social trust among certain groups of people and they are turning to people like Trump.

    It's also the cause of the Q craze and other right-wing conspiracy theories. Right-wing Americans have lost all trust in society. It's an existential problem for the USA.

    It’s an ouroboros. The right wing media/fundraising/culture war cycle has been forcing this narrative of an alternative reality since the Clinton administration, so “right wing Americans losing trust in public institutions” from voting to politics to journalism is really just the victory condition manifesting itself.

    HappylilElfCelestialBadgerSleepBlackDragon480NetscapeCouscousGnome-InterruptusMayabirdDoodmannCommander ZoomLabelMan in the MistsFencingsaxLord_AsmodeusRingo
  • HappylilElfHappylilElf Registered User regular
    edited April 14
    shryke wrote: »
    daveNYC wrote: »
    Necropost baby!
    So turns out that the Democratic polling groups decided to do a post-mortem on just what happened with the polls in 2020. Bad news is that they're a tad iffy on what happened.
    The memo floats at least three possible causes: late movement toward Trump and Republican candidates that polls conducted in the run-up to the election failed to catch, the Covid pandemic causing people who stayed home to answer the phone at a greater rate than those who did not follow restrictions, and the decline of social trust and faith in institutions.
    The last one is not great, because I'm not sure what you can do to account for a certain percentage of your sample bullshitting you.

    "Low social trust" does not mean they were lying to pollsters afaik. It means they just weren't answering. One of the big things that seems to be going on right now is that there is a decline in social trust among certain groups of people and they are turning to people like Trump.

    It's also the cause of the Q craze and other right-wing conspiracy theories. Right-wing Americans have lost all trust in society. It's an existential problem for the USA.

    This is... bullshit.

    I live with someone who voted for Trump not once, but twice, and she thinks the insurrection was criminal and everyone involved should already be in prison and is baffled they aren't already.

    I know it's easy to paint all republicans or all trump voters with a broad brush but that's never been and will never be an accurate portrayal. Any more than painting everyone who supported the tea party as a hyper-libertarian fucktard was. Or trying to say every bernie-bro clearly just wanted to burn not just the democratic party to the ground but our entire system of government and install a communist utopia.

    All of that was, is, and will continue to be bullshit.

    It's fun, because who doesn't want to be fighting for/against something. But... it's all bullshit.

    And that's what Q tapped into. It's like the Ur Example of bad faith political engagement. As long as all of the people who disagree with me are monstrous assholes not only do I not have to discuss things with them I can also just be righteously disgusted by everything they do because they're monstrous assholes.

    This is what the republican party has been running on since 2008. There's jackasses who will claim that it's always been this way but as mentioned earlier: they're jackasses. The tea party movement fundamentally changed the republican party and anyone who fails to recognize that is either just being intentionally ignorant or unintentionally ignorant. And it kinda doesn't matter which because in either case just fuck off.

    That's beside the point though because 2008 was 13 years ago.

    I pause now for the appropriate parties, myself included, to turn into dust.

    Our reality these days tends to be curated to an unhealthy degree because of a great many things we have absolutely no control over. And when I say "our" I mean that because that isn't a left vs. right thing. It's universal. We as a whole are being manipulated by forces outside our control and that with current power structures we will never have control over. And while that's always been the case to a certain degree it's gotten far worse because now everyone gets to pick their poison.

    Now then, assuming you've taken the time to read through my late night ramblings this brings us to the part where I tell you how we fix it:

    ...

    ......

    No, stop waiting. That was the end.

    People far smarter than me need to find solutions because all of my solutions are fantastically untenable.

    HappylilElf on
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  • NobeardNobeard North Carolina: Failed StateRegistered User regular
    It's really good that your friend thinks the insurrection was criminal, because it was. However, her opinion does not refute the assertation that a majority of conservatives have lost faith in public institutions. We have more than enough polling and anecdotal data to support that. Just a vote for Trump is itself a strong indicator of lack of faith in and knowledge of government and society.

    I'm not saying that applies to your friend because I don't know them and only have your tidbit. I do find her reasoning very interesting, and if you and/or her would like to discuss it, that would be great.

    I'm not saying we are going to have an autocratic dystopia, but things keep happening that look like they come from an autocratic dystopia.
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  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    From what I recall the more accurate direction it goes is that people with low social trust vote Trump. There's a growing number of them out there but they don't account for the majority of Trump voters or anything afaik. But it is a demographic that is out there and growing and one to keep an eye on.

    And, specific to the topic here, there's been the suggestion for a few years now that part of what's been going on with polling is that these people aren't answering the phone to do surveys. Not randomly but as a matter of their low social trust. Which creates a skew towards democrats the models aren't designed to handle.

    Though it is also, in and of itself, a concerning phenomenon. For the fact that these people are looking to leaders like Trump if nothing else.

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  • XaquinXaquin Right behind you!Registered User regular
    Nobeard wrote: »
    It's really good that your friend thinks the insurrection was criminal, because it was. However, her opinion does not refute the assertation that a majority of conservatives have lost faith in public institutions. We have more than enough polling and anecdotal data to support that. Just a vote for Trump is itself a strong indicator of lack of faith in and knowledge of government and society.

    I'm not saying that applies to your friend because I don't know them and only have your tidbit. I do find her reasoning very interesting, and if you and/or her would like to discuss it, that would be great.

    I think it's more that they want those things to only work for them.

    NetscapeJaysonFourMayabird
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